ALBERT

Description: Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottomup estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 TgCH4 yr􀀀1 (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 TgCH4 yr􀀀1 or 60% is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 TgCH4 yr􀀀1 or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 TgCH4 yr􀀀1 larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 TgCH4 yr􀀀1 larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30% larger global emissions (737 TgCH4 yr􀀀1, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions ( 65% of the global budget, 〈30 N) compared to mid-latitudes ( 30 %, 30–60 N) and high northern latitudes ( 4 %, 60–90 N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters. Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 TgCH4 yr􀀀1 lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 TgCH4 yr􀀀1 by 8 TgCH4 yr􀀀1, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5% compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning.

Description: Published

Description: 1561–1623

Description: 6A. Geochimica per l'ambiente e geologia medica

Description: JCR Journal

Description: The magnitude of future emissions of greenhouse gases from the northern permafrost region depends crucially on the mineralization of soil organic carbon (SOC) that has accumulated over millennia in these perennially frozen soils. Many recent studies have used radiocarbon (14C) to quantify the release of this “old” SOC as CO2 or CH4 to the atmosphere or as dissolved and particulate organic carbon (DOC and POC) to surface waters. We compiled ~1,900 14C measurements from 51 sites in the northern permafrost region to assess the vulnerability of thawing SOC in tundra, forest, peatland, lake, and river ecosystems. We found that growing season soil 14C‐CO2 emissions generally had a modern (post‐1950s) signature, but that well‐drained, oxic soils had increased CO2 emissions derived from older sources following recent thaw. The age of CO2 and CH4 emitted from lakes depended primarily on the age and quantity of SOC in sediments and on the mode of emission, and indicated substantial losses of previously frozen SOC from actively expanding thermokarst lakes. Increased fluvial export of aged DOC and POC occurred from sites where permafrost thaw caused soil thermal erosion. There was limited evidence supporting release of previously frozen SOC as CO2, CH4, and DOC from thawing peatlands with anoxic soils. This synthesis thus suggests widespread but not universal release of permafrost SOC following thaw. We show that different definitions of “old” sources among studies hamper the comparison of vulnerability of permafrost SOC across ecosystems and disturbances. We also highlight opportunities for future 14C studies in the permafrost region.

Description: Key Points: We compiled ~1,900 14C measurements of CO2, CH4, DOC, and POC from the northern permafrost region. Old carbon release increases in thawed oxic soils (CO2), thermokarst lakes (CH4 and CO2), and headwaters with thermal erosion (DOC and POC). Simultaneous and year‐long 14C analyses of CO2, CH4, DOC, and POC are needed to assess the vulnerability of permafrost carbon across ecosystems.

Description: EC | H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 European Research Council (ERC) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010663

Description: Gouvernement du Canada | Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000038

Description: National Science Foundation (NSF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001

Description: Understanding the biogeochemical processes reg- ulating carbon cycling is central to mitigating atmospheric CO2 emissions. The role of living organisms has been accounted for, but the focus has traditionally been on contributions of plants and microbes. We develop the case that fully ‘‘animating’’ the carbon cycle requires broader consideration of the functional role of animals in mediating biogeochemical processes and quanti- fication of their effects on carbon storage and exchange among terrestrial and aquatic reservoirs and the atmosphere. To encourage more hypothesis-driven experimental research that quantifies animal effects we discuss the mecha- nisms by which animals may affect carbon ex- changes and storage within and among ecosystems and the atmosphere. We illustrate how those mechanisms lead to multiplier effects whose magnitudes may rival those of more tra- ditional carbon storage and exchange rate esti- mates currently used in the carbon budget. Many animal species are already directly managed. Thus improved quantitative understanding of their influence on carbon budgets may create oppor- tunity for management and policy to identify and implement new options for mitigating CO2 re- lease at regional scales.

Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 35 (2008): L03402, doi:10.1029/2007GL032837.

Description: Arctic rivers transport huge quantities of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to the Arctic Ocean. The prevailing paradigm is that DOC in arctic rivers is refractory and therefore of little significance for the biogeochemistry of the Arctic Ocean. We show that there is substantial seasonal variability in the lability of DOC transported by Alaskan rivers to the Arctic Ocean: little DOC is lost during incubations of samples collected during summer, but substantial losses (20–40%) occur during incubations of samples collected during the spring freshet when the majority of the annual DOC flux occurs. We speculate that restricting sampling to summer may have biased past studies. If so, then fluvial inputs of DOC to the Arctic Ocean may have a much larger influence on coastal ocean biogeochemistry than previously realized, and reconsideration of the role of terrigenous DOC on carbon, microbial, and food-web dynamics on the arctic shelf will be warranted.

Description: This material is based on work supported by the National Science Foundation under grant numbers OPP-0436106, OPP- 0519840, and EAR-0403962, and is a contribution to the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH).

Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 35 (2008): L18606, doi:10.1029/2008GL035007.

Description: We present new flow-weighted data for δ 18OH2O, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved barium and total alkalinity from the six largest Arctic rivers: the Ob', Yenisey, Lena, Kolyma, Yukon and Mackenzie. These data, which can be used to trace runoff, are based upon coordinated collections between 2003 and 2006 that were temporally distributed to capture linked seasonal dynamics of river flow and tracer values. Individual samples indicate significant variation in the contributions each river makes to the Arctic Ocean. Use of these new flow-weighted estimates should reduce uncertainties in the analysis of freshwater transport and fate in the upper Arctic Ocean, including the links to North Atlantic thermohaline circulation, as well as regional water mass analysis. Additional improvements should also be possible for assessing the mineralization rate of the globally significant flux of terrigenous DOC contributed to the Arctic Ocean by these major rivers.

Description: Supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation (OPP-0229302), the U.S. Geological Survey and the Water Resources Division of Canada’s Department of Indian Affairs and Northern Development.

Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2011. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Estuaries and Coasts 35 (2012): 369-382, doi:10.1007/s12237-011-9386-6.

Description: River inputs of nutrients and organic matter impact the biogeochemistry of arctic estuaries and the Arctic Ocean as a whole, yet there is considerable uncertainty about the magnitude of fluvial fluxes at the pan-arctic scale. Samples from the six largest arctic rivers, with a combined watershed area of 11.3 x 106 km2, have revealed strong seasonal variations in constituent concentrations and fluxes within rivers as well as large differences among the rivers. Specifically, we investigate fluxes of dissolved organic carbon, dissolved organic nitrogen, total dissolved phosphorus, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, nitrate, and silica. This is the first time that seasonal and annual constituent fluxes have been determined using consistent sampling and analytical methods at the pan arctic scale, and consequently provide the best available estimates for constituent flux from land to the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas. Given the large inputs of river water to the relatively small Arctic Ocean, and the dramatic impacts that climate change is having in the Arctic, it is particularly urgent that we establish the contemporary river fluxes so that we will be able to detect future changes and evaluate the impact of the changes on the biogeochemistry of the receiving coastal and ocean systems.

Description: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation through grants OPP-0229302, OPP-0519840, OPP-0732522, and OPP-0732944. Additional support was provided by the U. S. Geological Survey (Yukon River) and the Department of Indian and Northern Affairs (Mackenzie River).

Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 26 (2012): GB4018, doi:10.1029/2011GB004192.

Description: A series of seasonally distributed measurements from the six largest Arctic rivers (the Ob', Yenisey, Lena, Kolyma, Yukon and Mackenzie) was used to examine the magnitude and significance of Arctic riverine DIC flux to larger scale C dynamics within the Arctic system. DIC concentration showed considerable, and synchronous, seasonal variation across these six large Arctic rivers, which have an estimated combined annual DIC flux of 30 Tg C yr−1. By examining the relationship between DIC flux and landscape variables known to regulate riverine DIC, we extrapolate to a DIC flux of 57 ± 9.9 Tg C yr−1for the full pan-arctic basin, and show that DIC export increases with runoff, the extent of carbonate rocks and glacial coverage, but decreases with permafrost extent. This pan-arctic riverine DIC estimate represents 13–15% of the total global DIC flux. The annual flux of selected ions (HCO3−, Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+, Sr2+, and Cl−) from the six largest Arctic rivers confirms that chemical weathering is dominated by inputs from carbonate rocks in the North American watersheds, but points to a more important role for silicate rocks in Siberian watersheds. In the coastal ocean, river water-induced decreases in aragonite saturation (i.e., an ocean acidification effect) appears to be much more pronounced in Siberia than in the North American Arctic, and stronger in the winter and spring than in the late summer. Accounting for seasonal variation in the flux of DIC and other major ions gives a much clearer understanding of the importance of riverine DIC within the broader pan-arctic C cycle.

Description: Funding for this work was provided through NSF-OPP-0229302 and NSF-OPP-0732985. Additional support to SET was provided by an NSERC Postdoctoral Fellowship.

Description: 2013-06-14