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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Authors, 2004. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Blackwell Publishing for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Animal Ecology 74 (2005): 589-600, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2656.2005.00929.x.
    Description: Selectivity of harvest influences harvest sustainability because individuals with different characteristics contribute differently to population growth. We investigate the effects of selection based on chick weight on a traditional harvest of the sooty shearwater Puffinus griseus by Rakiura Maori in New Zealand.
    Description: This research was funded by a New Zealand Foundation for Research Science and Technology grant to Rakiura Maori and by the US Environmental Protection Agency (R-82908901–0). It was also supported by the University of Auckland Statistics Department, University of Otago, Te Runanga o Ngai Tahu, the New Zealand Department of Conservation, and Southwest Helicopters Ltd.
    Keywords: Elasticity ; Demography ; Matrix population models ; Petrel ; Traditional harvest
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Authors, 2005. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Applications 16 (2006): 666–677.
    Description: We used population models to explore the effects of the organochlorine contaminant p,p'DDE and fluctuations in vole availability on the population dynamics of Burrowing Owls (Athene cunicularia). Previous work indicated an interaction between low biomass of voles in the diet and moderate levels of p,p'DDE in Burrowing Owl eggs that led to reproductive impairment. We constructed periodic and stochastic matrix models that incorporated three vole population states observed in the field: average, peak and crash years. We modeled varying frequencies of vole crash years and a range of impairment of owl demographic rates in vole crash years. Vole availability had a greater impact on owl population growth rate than reproductive impairment if vole populations peaked and crashed frequently. However, this difference disappeared as the frequency of vole crash years declined to once per decade. Fecundity, the demographic rate most affected by p,p'DDE, had less impact on population growth rate than adult or juvenile survival. A life table response experiment of time-invariant matrices for average, peak and crash vole conditions showed that low population growth under vole crash conditions was due to low adult and juvenile survival rates, whereas the extremely high population growth under vole peak conditions was due to increased fecundity. Our results suggest that even simple models can provide useful insights into complex ecological interactions. This is particularly valuable when temporal or spatial scales preclude manipulative experimental work in the field or laboratory.
    Description: Field work was supported by grants from the U.S. Navy EFA West, California Department of Fish and Game, and the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation to D. K. Rosenberg. Analysis was supported in part by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (R-82908901-0).
    Keywords: Athene cunicularia ; Burrowing Owl ; DDE ; Elasticity ; Interactive effects ; Matrix population model ; Multiple stressors ; Population level risk assessment ; Prospective analysis
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecology 91 (2010): 2883–2897, doi:10.1890/09-1641.1.
    Description: The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture–recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001–2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004–2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in λ in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log λs, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log λs ≈ − 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with “business as usual” (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic declines in the polar bear population by the end of the 21st century. These projections were instrumental in the decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.
    Description: We acknowledge primary funding for model development and analysis from the U.S. Geological Survey and additional funding from the National Science Foundation (DEB-0343820 and DEB-0816514), NOAA, the Ocean Life Institute and the Arctic Research Initiative at WHOI, and the Institute of Arctic Biology at the University of Alaska–Fairbanks. Funding for the capture–recapture effort in 2001–2006 was provided by the U.S. Geological Survey, the Canadian Wildlife Service, the Department of Environment and Natural Resources of the Government of the Northwest Territories, and the Polar Continental Shelf Project, Ottawa, Canada.
    Keywords: Climate change ; Demography ; IPCC ; LTRE analysis ; Matrix population models ; Polar bear ; Sea ice ; Stochastic growth rate ; Stochastic models ; Ursus maritimus
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2010. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Theoretical Ecology 5 (2012): 167-179, doi:10.1007/s12080-010-0106-9.
    Description: Studies of time-invariant matrix metapopulation models indicate that metapopulation growth rate is usually more sensitive to the vital rates of individuals in high-quality (i.e., good) patches than in low-quality (i.e., bad) patches. This suggests that, given a choice, management efforts should focus on good rather than bad patches. Here, we examine the sensitivity of metapopulation growth rate for a two-patch matrix metapopulation model with and without stochastic disturbance and found cases where managers can more efficiently increase metapopulation growth rate by focusing efforts on the bad patch. In our model, net reproductive rate differs between the two patches so that in the absence of dispersal, one patch is high quality and the other low quality. Disturbance, when present, reduces net reproductive rate with equal frequency and intensity in both patches. The stochastic disturbance model gives qualitatively similar results to the deterministic model. In most cases, metapopulation growth rate was elastic to changes in net reproductive rate of individuals in the good patch than the bad patch. However, when the majority of individuals are located in the bad patch, metapopulation growth rate can be most elastic to net reproductive rate in the bad patch. We expand the model to include two stages and parameterize the patches using data for the softshell clam, Mya arenaria. With a two-stage demographic model, the elasticities of metapopulation growth rate to parameters in the bad patch increase, while elasticities to the same parameters in the good patch decrease. Metapopulation growth rate is most elastic to adult survival in the population of the good patch for all scenarios we examine. If the majority of the metapopulation is located in the bad patch, the elasticity to parameters of that population increase but do not surpass elasticity to parameters in the good patch. This model can be expanded to include additional patches, multiple stages, stochastic dispersal, and complex demography.
    Description: Financial support was provided by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Academic Programs Office; National Science Foundation grants OCE-0326734, OCE- 0215905, OCE-0349177, DEB-0235692, DEB-0816514, DMS- 0532378, OCE-1031256, and ATM-0428122; and by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Sea Grant College Program Office, Department of Commerce, under Grant No. NA86RG0075 (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Sea Grant Project No. R/0-32), and Grant No. NA16RG2273 (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Sea Grant Project No. R/0-35).
    Keywords: Metapopulation ; Patch dynamics ; Disturbance ; Matrix population model ; Stage-structured ; Mya arenaria
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2010-09-18
    Print ISSN: 1874-1738
    Electronic ISSN: 1874-1746
    Topics: Biology
    Published by Springer
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2010-12-31
    Print ISSN: 1874-1738
    Electronic ISSN: 1874-1746
    Topics: Biology
    Published by Springer
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2005-10-01
    Print ISSN: 0304-3800
    Electronic ISSN: 1872-7026
    Topics: Biology
    Published by Elsevier
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2006-04-01
    Print ISSN: 1051-0761
    Electronic ISSN: 1939-5582
    Topics: Biology
    Published by Wiley on behalf of Ecological Society of America.
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2004-04-16
    Print ISSN: 1461-023X
    Electronic ISSN: 1461-0248
    Topics: Biology
    Published by Wiley
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2010-10-01
    Print ISSN: 0012-9658
    Electronic ISSN: 1939-9170
    Topics: Biology
    Published by Wiley on behalf of Ecological Society of America.
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