ALBERT

Description: Including faults into seismic hazard assessment depends strongly on their level of seismic activity. Intraplate regions are characterized by low seismicity, so that the evaluation of existing earthquake catalogues does not necessarily reveal all active faults that contribute to seismic hazard. In the Vienna Basin (Austria), moderate historical seismicity (Imax/Mmax = 8/5.2) concentrates along the left-lateral strike-slip Vienna Basin Transfer Fault (VBTF). In contrast, several normal faults branching out of the VBTF show neither historical nor instrumental earthquake records, although geomorphological data indicate Quaternary displacement along those faults. Here, we present a palaeoseismological dataset of three trenches crossing one of these splay faults, the Markgrafneusiedl Fault (MF), in order to evaluate the seismic potential of the fault. Comparing the observations of the different trenches, we found evidence for 5–6 major surface-breaking earthquakes during the last 120 ka, with the youngest event occurring at around ~ 14 ka before present. The inferred surface displacements lead to magnitude estimates ranging between M = 6.2 ± 0.3 and M = 6.8 ± 0.1. Data can be interpreted by two possible event lines, with event line 1 showing more regular recurrence intervals of about 20–25 ka between the earthquakes with M ≥ 6.5, and event line 2 indicating that such earthquakes cluster in two time intervals in the last 120 ka. Event line 2 appears more plausible. Trench observations also show that structural and sedimentological records of strong earthquakes with small surface offset have only low conservation potential. Vertical slip rates of 0.03–0.04 mm/a derived from the trenches compare well to geomorphically derived slip rates of 0.015–0.085 mm/a. Magnitude estimates from fault dimensions suggest that the largest earthquakes observed in the trenches activated the entire fault surface of the MF including the basal detachment that links the normal fault with the VBTF. The most important implications of these paleoseismological results for seismic hazard assessment are that: (1) The MF needs to be considered as a seismic source irrespective of the fact that it did not release historical earthquakes. (2) The maximum credible earthquakes in the Vienna Basin should be considered to be about M = 7.0. (3) The MF is kinematically and geologically equivalent to a number of other splay faults of the VBTF. It must be assumed that these faults are potential sources of large earthquakes as well. The frequency of strong earthquakes near Vienna is therefore expected to be significantly higher than the earthquake frequency reconstructed for the MF.