Publication Date:
2018-10-10
Description:
The product of convective available potential energy and precipitation rate is used as a proxy for U.S. cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning. The proxy is computed from numerical weather prediction model outputs and thus provides a simple method for producing CG lightning threat forecasts. Here three types of forecasts are considered: number of CG flashes, spatial extent of CG lightning occurrence, and lightning/no lightning maps at 1 ∘ ×1 ∘ resolution. Forecasts have statistically significant skill for lead times up to 15 days depending on the type of forecast. Verification of the forecasts over the United States provides a predictability baseline against which other approaches can be compared. ©2018. The Authors.
Print ISSN:
0094-8276
Electronic ISSN:
1944-8007
Topics:
Geosciences
,
Physics