Electronic Resource
Oxford, UK
:
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
R & D management
6 (1975), S. 0
ISSN:
1467-9310
Source:
Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
Topics:
Economics
Notes:
Employing various measures for the quality of subjective probabilities of technical success in R & D a detailed analysis of 4 data sets taken from different R & D organizations shows that the probability assessments roughly specify the populations to which R & D projects belong, but are extremely unreliable indicators of the eventual outcome of individual activities. Unintentional errors and conscious biases are identified as accounting for the unsatisfactory quality of subjective probabilities in R & D. Finally, some measures are suggested which might improve the quality of the probability assessments.
Type of Medium:
Electronic Resource
URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9310.1975.tb01078.x
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