ISSN:
1420-9136
Keywords:
Reoccurrence formulas
;
hazard assessment
Source:
Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
Topics:
Geosciences
,
Physics
Notes:
Abstract A modified formula of the cumulative frequency-magnitude relation has been formulated and tested in a previous paper by the authors of this study. Based on the modified relationship, the following reoccurrence formulas have been obtained. 1) For the ‘T-years period’ larger earthquake magnitude,M T $$M_T = \frac{1}{{A_3 }}ln\frac{{A_2 }}{{(1/T) + A_1 }}.$$ 2) For the value of the maximum earthquake magnitude, which is exceeded with probabilityP inT-years period,M PT $$M_{PT} = \frac{{ln(A_2 .T)}}{{A_3 }} - \frac{{ln[A_1 .T - ln(1 - P)]}}{{A_3 }}.$$ 3) For the probability of occurrence of an earthquake of magnitudeM in aT-years period,P MT $$P_{MT} = 1 - \exp [ - T[ - A_1 + A_2 \exp ( - A_3 M)]].$$ The above formulas provide estimates of the probability of reoccurrence of the largest earthquake events which are significantly more realistic than those based on the Gutenberg-Richter relationships; at least for numerous tested earthquake samples from the major area of Greece.
Type of Medium:
Electronic Resource
URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00878032
