Publication Date:
2020-11-09
Description:
After the large scale event of Neapolitan Yellow Tuff (~15 kyr BP), intense and mostly explosive volcanism has occurred within and along the boundaries of the Campi Flegrei caldera. Eruptions occurred closely spaced in time, over periods from a few centuries to a few millennia, and were alternated by periods of quiescence lasting even several millennia. Sometimes events also occurred closely in space thus generating a cluster of events. The most recent Monte Nuovo eruption occurred in 1538 AD after more than about 2.7 kyr from the previous one. Unfortunately, there is a remarkable uncertainty on the eruptive record, affecting the time of eruptions, location of vents as well as the erupted volume estimates. This study has the purpose of modelling such uncertainty by using a quantitative probabilistic model and obtaining quantitative estimates about the temporal and spatial distribution of the volcanism. In particular, the study adopts a time-space double stochastic Poisson-type model with a local self-exciting feature able to produce clustering events that are consistent with the reconstructed observed pattern at Campi Flegrei. Results allow to estimate the temporal eruptive base-rate of the caldera as well as its capacity to generate clusters of events. In particular the effect of the Monte Nuovo event on a possible reactivation of the system has been investigated. The analysis allows also to discriminate between the initial and main part of the eruptive epochs as well as to investigate the different behaviour of the eastern and western sectors of the caldera.
Description:
Published
Description:
Prague (CZ)
Description:
6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
Keywords:
Campi flegrei caldera
;
temporal modeling
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
Conference paper
