Publication Date:
2022-05-25
Description:
Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Nature Publishing Group for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Nature 460 (2009): 880-883, doi:10.1038/nature08219.
Description:
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity, as measured by annual storm counts,
reached anomalous levels over the past decade. The short nature of the historical
record and potential issues with its reliability in earlier decades, however, has
prompted an ongoing debate regarding the reality and significance of the recent
rise. Here, we place recent activity in a longer-term context, by comparing two
independent estimates of TC activity over the past 1500 years. The first estimate is
based on a composite of regional sedimentary evidence of landfalling hurricanes,
while the second estimate employs a previously published statistical model of
Atlantic TC activity driven by proxy-reconstructions of past climate changes. Both
approaches yield consistent evidence of a peak in Atlantic TC activity during
Medieval times (around AD 1000) followed by a subsequent lull in activity. The
Medieval peak, which rivals or even exceeds (within uncertainties) recent levels of
activity, results in the statistical model from a ‘perfect storm’ of La Niña-like
climate conditions and relative tropical Atlantic warmth.
Description:
M.E.M. and Z.Z. acknowledge support from the ATM programme of the National Science Foundation (grant ATM-0542356). J.P.D. acknowledges support from the EAR and OCE programmes of the National Science Foundation (grants EAR-0519118 and OCE-0402746), the Risk Prediction Initiative at the Bermuda Institute for Ocean Sciences, and the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research.
Repository Name:
Woods Hole Open Access Server
Type:
Preprint
Format:
application/pdf
