ALBERT

Description: The implementation of the precautionary approach in the mid-1990s required commercial fish stocks to be classified into different categories. These are based on the degree to which stocks have been exploited or are threatened by fishing activities. According to current ICES terminology, stocks are classified as being either “within” or “outside safe biological limits”, or as being “harvested outside safe biological limits”. Between 1996 and 2002, the relative share of stocks in these three categories remained relatively stable (at about 20 %, 30 % and 15 %, respectively). Over the same time span, the number of stocks were insufficient data is available to quantify and thus to appropriately classify the state of the spawning stock biomass (“status unknown”) has increased. Neglecting potential impacts of fishing pressure, the combined average proportion of all stocks with sufficiently high spawning stock biomass is at about one third, while only one fifth of the stocks assessed have been managed sustainably. For some important fish stocks in the ICES environment – specifically demersal ones –, science recently had to call for rebuilding plans or even a closure of the fishery to allow recovery, in spite of the management’s agreement to manage the resources according to the precautionary approach. This obvious difference between approach and implementation has a number of potential causes: erroneous or imprecise input data (landings, discard and sampling information), insufficient assessment models, problems in the understanding of the scientific advice, and implementation errors. The latter could be either a difference between advised and implemented total allowable catches (TACs), or an excess of legal TACs. During the fifteen years covered by this analysis (1987 to 2002), the average deviation between the implemented TACs for a specific stock and that recommended by ICES for the same stock was more than 30 %. The overall average deviation (summed over all stocks) for the entire period was 34 %, excluding, however, four extreme outliers in the data, representing cases in which scientific recommendations were exceeded by as much as 1000 to 2500 %. If these were included, the overall average would be as high as 45 %. The annual deviation has substantially increased in recent years (from roughly 20 % in earlier years of the surveyed period). This recently observed high deviation also matches ICES’s estimate that the fishing mortality in the ICES convention area in the 1990s was well above recommended sustainable levels in the pelagic and demersal fishery. A direct comparison of scientifically proposed and politically implemented TACs is problematic in many case