ALBERT

Description: The Water and Global Change (WATCH) forcing datasets have been created to support the use of hydrological and land surface models for the assessment of the water cycle within climate change studies. They are based on 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) or ECMWF interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) with temperatures (among other variables) adjusted such that their monthly means match the monthly temperature dataset from the Climatic Research Unit. To this end, daily minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures within one calendar month have been subjected to a correction involving monthly means of the respective month. As these corrections can be largely different for adjacent months, this procedure potentially leads to implausible differences in daily temperatures across the boundaries of calendar months. We analyze day-to-day temperature fluctuations within and across months and find that across-months differences are significantly larger, mostly in the tropics and frigid zones. Average across-months differences in daily mean temperature are typically between 10% and 40% larger than their corresponding within-months average temperature differences. However, regions with differences up to 200% can be found in tropical Africa. Particularly in regions where snowmelt is a relevant player for hydrology, a few degrees Celsius difference can be decisive for triggering this process. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures are affected in the same regions, but in a less severe way.

Description: The rich fossil record of horses has made them a classic example of evolutionary processes. However, while the overall picture of equid evolution is well known, the details are surprisingly poorly understood, especially for the later Pliocene and Pleistocene, c. 3 million to 0.01 million years (Ma) ago, and nowhere more so than in the Americas. There is no consensus on the number of equid species or even the number of lineages that existed in these continents. Likewise, the origin of the endemic South American genus Hippidion is unresolved, as is the phylogenetic position of the “stilt-legged” horses of North America. Using ancient DNA sequences, we show that, in contrast to current models based on morphology and a recent genetic study, Hippidion was phylogenetically close to the caballine (true) horses, with origins considerably more recent than the currently accepted date of c. 10 Ma. Furthermore, we show that stilt-legged horses, commonly regarded as Old World migrants related to the hemionid asses of Asia, were in fact an endemic North American lineage. Finally, our data suggest that there were fewer horse species in late Pleistocene North America than have been named on morphological grounds. Both caballine and stilt-legged lineages may each have comprised a single, wide-ranging species.

Description: In this study, the impact of oceanic data assimilation on ENSO simulations and predictions is investigated. The authors’ main objective is to compare the impact of the assimilation of sea level observations and three-dimensional temperature measurements relative to each other. Three experiments were performed. In a control run the ocean model was forced with observed winds only, and in two assimilation runs three-dimensional temperatures and sea levels were assimilated one by one. The root-mean-square differences between the model solution and observations were computed and heat content anomalies of the upper 275 m compared to each other. Three ensembles of ENSO forecasts were performed additionally to investigate the impact of data assimilation on ENSO predictions. In a control ensemble a hybrid coupled ocean–atmosphere model was initialized with observed winds only, while either three-dimensional temperatures or sea level data were assimilated during the initialization phase in two additional forecast ensembles. The predicted sea surface temperature anomalies were averaged over the eastern equatorial Pacific and compared to observations. Two different objective skill measures were computed to evaluate the impact of data assimilation on ENSO forecasts. The authors’ experiments indicate that sea level observations contain useful information and that this information can be inserted successfully into an oceanic general circulation model. It is inferred from the forecast ensembles that the benefit of sea level and temperature assimilation is comparable. However, the positive impact of sea level assimilation could be shown more clearly when the forecasted temperature differences rather than the temperature anomalies themselves were compared with observations.

Description: The seasonal cycle over the tropical Pacific simulated by 11 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (GCMs) is examined. Each model consists of a high-resolution ocean GCM of either the tropical Pacific or near-global means coupled to a moderate- or high-resolution atmospheric GCM, without the use of flux correction. The seasonal behavior of sea surface temperature (SST) and eastern Pacific rainfall is presented for each model. The results show that current state-of-the-art coupled GCMs share important successes and troublesome systematic errors. All 11 models are able to simulate the mean zonal gradient in SST at the equator over the central Pacific. The simulated equatorial cold tongue generally tends to be too strong, too narrow, and extend too far west. SSTs are generally too warm in a broad region west of Peru and in a band near 10°S. This is accompanied in some models by a double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) straddling the equator over the eastern Pacific, and in others by an ITCZ that migrates across the equator with the seasons; neither behavior is realistic. There is considerable spread in the simulated seasonal cycles of equatorial SST in the eastern Pacific. Some simulations do capture the annual harmonic quite realistically, although the seasonal cold tongue tends to appear prematurely. Others overestimate the amplitude of the semiannual harmonic. Nonetheless, the results constitute a marked improvement over the simulations of only a few years ago when serious climate drift was still widespread and simulated zonal gradients of SST along the equator were often very weak.

Description: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific and the analogous Atlantic Niño mode are generated by processes involving coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions known as the Bjerknes feedback. It has been argued that the Atlantic Niño mode is more strongly damped than ENSO, which is presumed to be closer to neutrally stable. In this study the stability of ENSO and the Atlantic Niño mode is compared via an analysis of the Bjerknes stability index. This index is based on recharge oscillator theory and can be interpreted as the growth rate for coupled modes of ocean–atmosphere variability. Using observational data, an ocean reanalysis product, and output from an ocean general circulation model, the individual terms of the Bjerknes index are calculated for the first time for the Atlantic and then compared to results for the Pacific. Positive thermocline feedbacks in response to wind stress forcing favor anomaly growth in both basins, but they are twice as large in the Pacific compared to the Atlantic. Thermocline feedback is related to the fetch of the zonal winds, which is much greater in the equatorial Pacific than in the equatorial Atlantic due to larger basin size. Negative feedbacks are dominated by thermal damping of sea surface temperature anomalies in both basins. Overall, it is found that both ENSO and the Atlantic Niño mode are damped oscillators, but the Atlantic is more strongly damped than the Pacific primarily because of the weaker thermocline feedback.

Description: Habitat-forming species sustain biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in harsh environments through the amelioration of physical stress. Nonetheless, their role in shaping patterns of species distribution under future climate scenarios is generally overlooked. Focusing on coastal systems, we assess how habitat-forming species can influence the ability of stress-sensitive species to exhibit plastic responses, adapt to novel environmental conditions, or track suitable climates. Here, we argue that habitat-former populations could be managed as a nature-based solution against climate-driven loss of biodiversity. Drawing from different ecological and biological disciplines, we identify a series of actions to sustain the resilience of marine habitat-forming species to climate change, as well as their effectiveness and reliability in rescuing stress-sensitive species from increasingly adverse environmental conditions.

Description: In this paper the performance of the global coupled general circulation model (CGCM) ECHO-2, which was integrated for 10 years without the application of flux correction, is described. Although the integration is rather short, strong and weak points of this CGCM can be clearly identified, especially in view of the model's performance of the annual cycle in the tropical Pacific. The latter is simulated with more success relative to the earlier version, ECHO-I. A better representation of the low-level stratus clouds in the atmosphere model associated with a reduction in the shortwave radiative flux at the air-sea interface improved the coupled model's performance in the southeastern tropical oceans, with a strongly reduced warm bias in these regions. Modifications in the atmospheric convection scheme also eliminated the AGCM's tendency to simulate a double ITCZ, and this behavior is maintained in the CGCM simulation. Finally, a new numerical scheme for active tracer advection in the ocean model strongly reduced the numerical mixing, which seems to enhance considerably the level of interannual variability in the equatorial Pacific. One weak point is an overall cold bias in the Tropics and midlatitudes, which typically amounts to 1°C in open ocean regions. Another weak point is the still too strong equatorial cold tongue, which penetrates too far into the western equatorial Pacific. Although this model deficiency is not as pronounced as in ECHO-1, the too strong cold tongue reduces the level of interannual rainfall variability in the western and central equatorial Pacific. Finally, the interannual fluctuations in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are too equatorially trapped, a problem that is also found in ocean-only simulations. Overall, however, the authors believe that the ECHO-2 CGCM has been considerably improved relative to ECHO-1.

Description: Aquatic ecosystems worldwide continue to experience unprecedented warming and ecological change. Warming increases metabolic rates of animals, plants, and microbes, accelerating their use of energy and materials, their population growth, and interaction rates. At a much larger biological scale, warming accelerates ecosystem-level processes, elevating fluxes of carbon and oxygen between biota and the atmosphere. Although these general effects of temperature at finer and broader biological scales are widely observed, they can lead to contradictory predictions for how warming affects the structure and function of ecological communities at the intermediate scale of biological organization. We experimentally tested the hypothesis that the presence of predators and their associated species interactions modify the temperature dependence of net ecosystem oxygen production and respiration. We tracked a series of independent freshwater ecosystems (370 L) over 9 weeks, and we found that at higher temperatures, cascading effects of predators on zooplankton prey and algae were stronger than at lower temperatures. When grazing was weak or absent, standing phytoplankton biomass declined by 85%–95% (〈1-fold) over the temperature gradient (19–30 °C), and by 3-fold when grazers were present and lacked predators. These temperature-dependent species interactions and consequent community biomass shifts occurred without signs of species loss or community collapse, and only modestly affected the temperature dependence of net ecosystem oxygen fluxes. The exponential increases in net ecosystem oxygen production and consumption were relatively insensitive to differences in trophic interactions among ecosystems. Furthermore, monotonic declines in phytoplankton standing stock suggested no threshold effects of warming across systems. We conclude that local changes in community structure, including temperature-dependent trophic cascades, may be compatible with prevailing and predictable effects of temperature on ecosystem functions related to fundamental effects of temperature on metabolism.

Description: The workshop on polar lows (PLs) and mesoscale weather extremes attracted 30 scientists from China, France, Germany, Japan, Norway, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States to present the most recent findings on PL research and to summarize our present understanding of PLs and mesocyclones (MCs) as well as mesoscale weather extremes in the Arctic and Antarctic (see sidebar for the definition of PLs). The workshop had the following main themes: PL studies using satellite data and in situ observations, climatological aspects, PLs in reanalyses and model simulations, environments for PL genesis and operational aspects, polar mesoscale weather phenomena, and air–ocean–ice interactions. The workshop was concluded by a roundtable discussion resulting in recommendations for future research and actions.