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  • Articles  (57,842)
  • Blackwell Publishing Ltd  (57,814)
  • American Geophysical Union (AGU)
  • 2010-2014  (38)
  • 1990-1994  (37,200)
  • 1980-1984  (20,446)
  • 1925-1929
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Despite the advance in our understanding of the carbon exchange between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, semiarid ecosystems have been poorly investigated and little is known about their role in the global carbon balance. We used eddy covariance measurements to determine the exchange of CO2 between a semiarid steppe and the atmosphere over 3 years. The vegetation is a perennial grassland of Stipa tenacissima L. located in the SE of Spain. We examined diurnal, seasonal and interannual variations in the net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) in relation to biophysical variables. Cumulative NECB was a net source of 65.7, 143.6 and 92.1 g C mˉ2 yrˉ1 for the 3 years studied, respectively. We separated the year into two distinctive periods: dry period and growing season. The ecosystem was a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere, particularly during the dry period when large CO2 positive fluxes of up to 15 μmol mˉ2 sˉ1 were observed in concomitance with large wind speeds. Over the growing season, the ecosystem was a slight sink or neutral with maximum rates of -2.3 μmol mˉ2 sˉ1. Rainfall events caused large fluxes of CO2 to the atmosphere and determined the length of the growing season. In this season, photosynthetic photon flux density controlled day-time NECB just below 1000 μmol mˉ2 sˉ1. The analyses of the diurnal and seasonal data and preliminary geological and gas-geochemical evaluations, including C isotopic analyses, suggest that the CO2 released was not only biogenic but most likely included a component of geothermal origin, presumably related to deep fluids occurring in the area. These results highlight the importance of considering geological carbon sources, as well as the need to carefully interpret the results of eddy covariance partitioning techniques when applied in geologically active areas potentially affected by CO2-rich geofluid circulation.
    Description: Published
    Description: 539–554
    Description: 4.5. Studi sul degassamento naturale e sui gas petroliferi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: alpha grass ; carbon sequestration ; ecosystem respiration ; eddy covariance ; geogas ; geothermal activity ; grasslands ; net ecosystem carbon balance ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.12. Fluid Geochemistry
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We present an improved evaluation of the current strain and stress fields in Southern Apennines (Italy) obtained through a careful analysis of geodetic, seismological and borehole data. In particular, our analysis provides an updated comparison between the accrued strain recorded by geodetic data, and the strain released by seismic activity in a region hit by destructive historical earthquakes. To this end, we have used 9 years of GPS observations (2001-2010) from a dense network of permanent stations, a dataset of 73 well constrained stress indicators (borehole breakouts and focal mechanisms of moderate to large earthquakes), and published estimations of the geological strain accommodated by active faults in the region. Although geodetic data are generally consistent with seismic and geologic information, previously unknown features of the current deformation in southern Italy emerge from this analysis. The newly obtained GPS velocity field supports the well-established notion of a dominant NE-SW-oriented extension concentrated in a ~50 km wide belt along the topographic relief of the Apennines, as outlined by the distribution of seismogenic normal faults. Geodetic deformation is, however, non uniform along the belt, with two patches of higher strain-rate and shear stress accumulation in the north (Matese Mountains) and in the south (Irpinia area). Low geodetic strain-rates are found in the Bradano basin and Apulia plateau to the east. Along the Ionian Sea margin of southern Italy, in southern Apulia and eastern Basilicata and Calabria, geodetic velocities indicate NW-SE extension which is consistent with active shallow-crustal gravitational motion documented by geological studies. In the west, along the Tyrrhenian margin of the Campania region, the tectonic geodetic field is disturbed by volcanic processes. Comparison between the magnitude of the geodetic and the seismic strain-rates (computed using a long historical seismicity catalogue) allow detecting areas of high correlation, particularly along the axis of the mountain chain, indicating that most of the geodetic strain is released by earthquakes. This relation does not hold for the instrumental seismic catalogue, as a consequence of the limited time span covered by instrumental data. In other areas (e.g. Murge plateau in central Apulia), where seismicity is very low or absent, the yet appreciable geodetic deformation might be accommodated in aseismic mode. Overall, the excellent match between the stress and the strain-rate directions in much of the Apennines indicates that both earthquakes and ground deformation patterns are driven by the same crustal forces.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1270-1282
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Satellite geodesy ; Plate motions ; Neotectonics ; Europe ; Apennines ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Several volcanoes worldwide have shown changes in their stress state as a consequence of the deformation produced by the pressurization of a magmatic body. This study investigates seismic swarms occurring on the western flank of Mt. Etna in January 1997 - January 1998. Integrating seismic observations and geodetic data, we constrained the seismogenic fault system, and on the basis of stress tensor inversion and SHMAX analyses, we infer an inflating pressure source located at 5.5 km b.s.l. beneath the west portion of summit area. Evaluation of Coulomb failure stress (CFS) related to the proposed model, showed how a large part of the seismogenic fault underwent a significant CFS increase (500 kPa). We infer the presence of a sub-vertical faulted region, potentially weak, N50°E oriented beneath the western sector of Mt. Etna. This structure could be brought closer to failure thereby generating seismic swarms as the effect of elastic stress transfer induced by movement and/or overpressure of magmatic masses within the upper crust under the volcano.
    Description: This research was funded by the INGV–DPC 2007–2009 Agreement (Project V4_Flank).
    Description: Published
    Description: 339-348
    Description: 1.4. TTC - Sorveglianza sismologica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Etna ; modelling ; Seismicity ; GPS monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2020-02-24
    Description: An earthquake of Mw=6.3 struck L’Aquila town (central Italy) on April 6, 2009 rupturing an approximately 18 km long SW-dipping normal fault. The aftershock area extended for a length of more than 35 km and included major aftershocks on April 7 and 9, and thousands of minor events. Surface faulting occurred along the SW-dipping Paganica fault with a continuous extent of ~2.5 km. Ruptures consist of open cracks and vertical dislocations or warps (0.1 maximum throw) with an orientation of N130°-N140°. Small triggered slip and shaking effects also took place along nearby synthetic and antithetic normal faults. The observed limited extent, and small surface displacement, of the Paganica ruptures with respect to the height of the fault scarps and vertical throws of paleoearthquakes along faults in the area, puts the faulting associated with the L’Aquila earthquake in perspective with respect to the maximum expected magnitude, and the regional seismic hazard.
    Description: In press
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: 2009 L’Aquila seismic sequence ; co-seismic surface effects ; earthquake geology ; normal faulting earthquake ; Abruzzi, central Apennines ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Methane soil flux measurements have been made in 38 sites at the geothermal system of Sousaki (Greece) with the closed chamber method. Fluxes range from –47.6 to 29,150 mg m-2 d-1 and the diffuse CH4 output of the system has been estimated at 19 t a-1. Contemporaneous CO2 flux measurements showed a moderate positive correlation between CO2 and CH4 fluxes. Comparison of the CO2/CH4 soil flux ratios with the CO2/CH4 ratio of the gases of the main gas manifestations provided evidence for methanotrophic activity within the soil. Laboratory CH4 consumption experiments confirmed the presence of methanotrophic microorganisms in soil samples collected at Sousaki. Consumption was generally in the range from –4.9 to –38.9 pmolCH4 h-1 g-1 but could sometimes reach extremely high values (–33,000 pmolCH4 h-1 g-1.). These results are consistent with recent studies on other geothermal systems that revealed the existence of thermoacidophilic bacteria exerting methanotrophic activity in hot, acid soils, thereby reducing methane emissions to the atmosphere.
    Description: Published
    Description: 97–107
    Description: 4.5. Studi sul degassamento naturale e sui gas petroliferi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Sousaki ; accumulation chamber ; soil degassing ; hydrothermal systems ; methane output ; methanotrophic activity ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.07. Volcanic effects ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.12. Fluid Geochemistry ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
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    Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We present a new crustal model for the European plate, derived from collection and critical integration of information selected from the literature. The model covers the whole European plate from North Africa to the North Pole (20N - 90N) and from the Mid-Atlantic Ridge to the Urals (40W - 70E). The chosen parameterization represents the crust in three layers (sediments, upper crust and lower crust), and describes the 3D geometry of the interfaces and seismologically-relevant parameters — isotropic P- and S-wave velocity, plus density — with a resolution of 0.5 × 0.5 degrees on a geographical latitude-longitude grid. We selected global and local models, derived from geological assumptions, active seismic experiments, surface-wave studies, noise correlation, receiver functions. Model EPcrust presents significant advantages with respect to previous models: it covers the whole European plate; it is a complete and internally-consistent model (with all the parameters provided, also for the sedimentary layer); it is reproducible; it is easy to update in the future by adding new contributions; and it is available in a convenient digital format. EPcrust could be used to account for crustal structure in seismic wave propagation modeling at continental scale or to compute linearized crustal corrections in continental-scale seismic tomography, gravity studies, dynamic topography and other applications that require a reliable crustal structure. Because of its resolution, our model is not suited for local-scale studies, such as the computation of earthquake scenarios, where more detailed knowledge of the structure is required. We plan to update the model as new data will become available, and possibly improve its resolution for selected areas in the future.
    Description: Published
    Description: 352-364
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Europe ; crust ; crustal properties ; Moho ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.01. Composition and state
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2020-02-24
    Description: An earthquake of Mw = 6.3 struck L Aquila town (central Italy) on 6 April 2009 rupturing an ~18-km-long SW-dipping normal fault. The aftershock area extended for a length of more than 35 km and included major aftershocks on 7 and 9 April and thousands of minor events. Surface faulting occurred along the SW-dipping Paganica fault with a continuous extent of ~2.5 km. Ruptures consist of open cracks and vertical dislocations or warps (0.1m maximum throw) with an orientation of N130°–140°. Small triggered slip and shaking effects also took place along nearby synthetic and antithetic normal faults. The observed limited extent and small surface displacement of the Paganica ruptures with respect to the height of the fault scarps and vertical throws of palaeo-earthquakes along faults in the area put the faulting associated with the L' Aquila earthquake in perspective with respect to the maximum expected magnitude and the regional seismic hazard.
    Description: Published
    Description: 43-51
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: surface faulting from moderate earthquake ; coseismic effects ; L'Aquila earthquake ; cemtral Italy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: This thematic issue of Geofluids includes 11 papers representing the three main topics discussed in the 10th edition of the International Conference on Gas Geochemistry (ICGG-10): (i) gas in petroleum systems and seepage, (ii) gas in geothermal systems and volcanoes and (iii) gas, seismicity and geohazards. ICGG-10 was held in 2009 in Romania, a country extraordinarily rich in surface gas manifestations, that offers innumerable opportunities for innovative studies on gas geochemistry. We briefly describe the present knowledge on gases occurring both in petroliferous sedimentary basins and geothermal areas of Romania. The 11 contributions of this special issue, which include data from eight countries, are then summarised. Based on these papers and other works presented at the ICGG-10, we find that significant advances in analytical capabilities, data treating and interpretation have led to innovative insights into the origin, distribution and environmental impact of gases migrating to the Earth’s surface. It is increasingly clear, in particular, that gas geochemistry can be more effective for petroleum exploration, volcano-tectonic, geodynamic and environmental studies, if multiparametric studies are performed and the data are interpreted in the geological context.
    Description: Published
    Description: 457-462
    Description: 4.5. Studi sul degassamento naturale e sui gas petroliferi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: geothermal gas ; international conference on gas geochemistry ; natural gas ; romania ; seeps ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.12. Fluid Geochemistry
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Gas seepage from petroleum basins is the second largest natural source of methane to the atmosphere, after wetlands. The uncertainty in global emission estimates should be reduced by extending the flux database which is fundamental for defining the emission factors and the actual area of seepage adopted for up-scaling. As a contribution to this goal, we report a new seepage data-set for the Transylvanian Basin, one of the largest natural gas producing regions of Europe, that is characterized by the widespread occurrence of natural leakages of gas at the surface, including at least 73 mud volcanoes and gas seeps. In this study, methane flux was measured using closed-chambers, from 12 seepage sites, in correspondence with focused gas vents (mud volcano craters, bubbling pools, and flammable gas leaks), in the soil surrounding the vents, and at 15 sites located far from macroseep zones but close to gas fields. Fluxes from individual vents (macro-seeps) were found to reach orders of kg CH4 m)2 day)1 (up to 12 kg m)2 day)1) and diffuse fluxes from soils (miniseepage) were found to be up to a few g CH4 m)2 day)1. Far from seep zones, positive CH4 fluxes (microseepage) may occur locally, typically on the order of tens to hundreds of mg m)2 day)1. The values, as well as the occurrence of seepage even far from vent zones and in mud volcanoes that are apparently extinct, are coherent with results obtained in other countries. Gas fluxes from macro-seeps and soils may change seasonally, but the interannual variation of the average emission factor was found to be minimal. The total CH4 output for Transylvania macro-seeps is estimated conservatively to be around 680 t year)1; the total geo-CH4 seepage emission from the Transylvania petroleum system could be approximately 40 · 103 t year)1, and at least 100 · 103 t year)1 for all Romanian petroleum systems, that is roughly 10% of the total anthropogenic CH4 emission in the country.
    Description: Published
    Description: 463-475
    Description: 4.5. Studi sul degassamento naturale e sui gas petroliferi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: gas reservoirs ; methane emissions ; mud volcanoes ; seeps ; Transylvanian Basin ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Natural gas seeps in the Alpine region are poorly investigated. However, they can provide useful information regarding the hydrocarbon potential of sedimentary Alpine units and related geofluid migration, typically controlled by pressurized gas accumulations and tectonics. A gas seep located near Giswil, in the Swiss Northern Alps, was investigated, for the first time, for molecular and isotopic gas composition, methane flux to the atmosphere, and gas flux variations over time. The analyses indicated that the gas was thermogenic (CH4 〉 96%; d13C1: )35.5& to )40.2&) and showed evidence of subsurface petroleum biodegradation (13C-enriched CO2, and very low C3+ concentrations). The source rock in the region is marine Type II kerogen, which is likely the same as that providing thermogenic gas in the nearby Wilen shallow well, close to Lake Sarnen. However, the lack of d13CCO2 and d13C3 data for that well prevented us from determining whether the Wilen and Giswil seeps are fed by the same reservoir and seepage system. Gas fluxes from the Giswil seep, measured using a closedchamber system, were significant and mainly from two major vents. However, a substantial gas exhalation from the soil occurs diffusely in an area of at least 115 m2, leading to a total CH4 output conservatively estimated to be at least 16 tonnes per year. Gas flux variations, monitored over a 1-month period by a special tent and flowmeter, showed not only daily meteorological oscillations, but also an intrinsic ‘pulsation’ with periods of enhanced flux that lasted 2–6 h each, occurring every few days. The pulses are likely related to episodes of gas pressure build-up and discharge along the seepage system. However, to date, no relationship to seismicity in the active Sarnen strike-slip fault system has been established.
    Description: Published
    Description: 476-485
    Description: 4.5. Studi sul degassamento naturale e sui gas petroliferi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Alps ; isotopes ; methane ; organic geochemistry ; seeps ; Switzerland ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.12. Fluid Geochemistry
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2014-12-19
    Description: Relative sea level rise (RSLR) has driven large increases in annual water level exceedances (duration and frequency) above minor (nuisance level) coastal flooding elevation thresholds established by the National Weather Service (NWS) at U.S. tide gauges over the last half-century. For threshold levels below 0.5 m above high tide, the rates of annual exceedances are accelerating along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts, primarily from evolution of tidal water level distributions to higher elevations impinging on the flood threshold. These accelerations are quantified in terms of the local RSLR rate and tidal range through multiple regression analysis. Along the U.S. West Coast, annual exceedance rates are linearly increasing, complicated by sharp punctuations in RSLR anomalies during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, and we account for annual exceedance variability along the U.S. West and East Coasts from ENSO forcing. Projections of annual exceedances above local NWS nuisance levels at U.S. tide gauges are estimated by shifting probability estimates of daily maximum water levels over a contemporary 5-year period following probabilistic RSLR projections of Kopp et al. (2014) for representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. We suggest a tipping point for coastal inundation (30 days/per year with a threshold exceedance) based on the evolution of exceedance probabilities. Under forcing associated with the local-median projections of RSLR, the majority of locations surpass the tipping point over the next several decades regardless of specific RCP.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 12
  • 13
    Publication Date: 2014-12-05
    Description: VALUE is an open European network to validate and compare downscaling methods for climate change research. VALUE aims to foster collaboration and knowledge exchange between climatologists, impact modellers, statisticians and stakeholders to establish an interdisciplinary downscaling community. A key deliverable of VALUE is the development of a systematic validation framework to enable the assessment and comparison of both dynamical and statistical downscaling methods. In this paper, we present the key ingredients of this framework. VALUE’s main approach to validation is user focussed: starting from a specific user problem, a validation tree guides the selection of relevant validation indices and performance measures. Several experiments have been designed to isolate specific points in the downscaling procedure where problems may occur: what is the isolated downscaling skill? How do statistical and dynamical methods compare? How do methods perform at different spatial scales? Do methods fail in representing regional climate change? How is the overall representation of regional climate, including errors inherited from global climate models? The framework will be the basis for a comprehensive community-open downscaling intercomparison study, but is intended also to provide general guidance for other validation studies.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2014-04-01
    Description: The first and only set of U.S.-nationally distributed K-12 science education standards have been adopted by many states across America, with the potential to be adopted by many more. Earth and space science plays a prominent role in the new standards, with particular emphasis on critical Earth issues such as climate change, sustainability, and human impacts on Earth systems. In the states that choose to adopt the NGSS, American youth will have a rigorous practiced-based formal education in these important areas. Much work needs to be done to insure the adoption and adequate implementation of the Next Generation Science Standards by a majority of American states, however, and there are many things that Earth and space scientists can do to help facilitate the process.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2014-10-25
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
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  • 16
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    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2014-09-05
    Description: Key Points Earthquake safety is now a lost art due to incorrect seismic hazard estimates huge human losses in regions depicted as low seismic hazard regions by psha Deterministic seismic hazard maps plan for what is possible, not just probable
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2014-09-05
    Description: In the past decade there has been a massive growth in the horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing of shale gas and tight oil reservoirs to exploit formerly inaccessible or unprofitable energy resources in rock formations with low permeability. In North America, these unconventional domestic sources of natural gas and oil provide an opportunity to achieve energy self-sufficiency and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions when displacing coal as a source of energy in power plants. However, fugitive methane emissions in the production process may counter the benefit over coal with respect to climate change and therefore need to be well quantified. Here we demonstrate that positive methane anomalies associated with the oil and gas industries can be detected from space and that corresponding regional emissions can be constrained using satellite observations. Based on a mass-balance approach, we estimate that methane emissions for two of the fastest growing production regions in the United States, the Bakken and Eagle Ford formations, have increased by 990 ± 650 ktCH 4 yr − 1 and 530 ± 330 ktCH 4 yr − 1 between the periods 2006–2008 and 2009–2011. Relative to the respective increases in oil and gas production, these emission estimates correspond to leakages of 10.1 ± 7.3 % and 9.1 ± 6.2 % in terms of energy content, calling immediate climate benefit into question and indicating that current inventories likely underestimate fugitive emissions from Bakken and Eagle Ford.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 18
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    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2014-09-09
    Description: Population growth, dietary changes and increasing biofuel use are placing unprecedented pressure on the global food system. While this demand likely cannot be met by expanding agricultural lands, much of the world's cropland can attain higher crop yields. Therefore, it is important to examine whether increasing crop productivity to the maximum attainable yield (i.e. yield gap closure) alone can substantially improve food security at global and national scales. Here we show that closing yield gaps through conventional technological development (i.e. fertilizers and irrigation) can potentially meet future global demand if diets are moderated and crop-based biofuel production is limited. In particular, we find that increasing dietary demand will be largely to blame should crop production fall short of demand. In converting projected diets to a globally adequate diet (3000 kcal/cap/day; 20% animal kcal) under current agrofuel use, we find that ~1.8 to ~2.6 billion additional people can be fed in 2030 and ~2.1 to ~3.1 billion additional people in 2050, depending on the extent to which yields can improve in those time periods. Therefore, the simple combination of yield gap closure and moderating diets offers promise for feeding the world's population but only if long-term sustainability is the focus.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2014-09-12
    Description: The expected urbanization of the planet in the coming century coupled with aging infrastructure in developed regions, increasing complexity of man-made systems, and pressing climate change impacts have created opportunities for reassessing the role of infrastructure and technologies in cities and how they contribute to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Modern urbanization is predicated on complex, increasingly coupled infrastructure systems, and energy use continues to be largely met from fossil fuels. Until energy infrastructures evolve away from carbon-based fuels, GHG emissions are critically tied to the urbanization process. Further complicating the challenge of decoupling urban growth from GHG emissions are lock-in effects and interdependencies. This paper synthesizes state-of-the-art thinking for transportation, fuels, buildings, water, electricity, and waste systems and finds that GHG emissions assessments tend to view these systems as static and isolated from social and institutional systems. Despite significant understanding of methods and technologies for reducing infrastructure-related GHG emissions, physical, institutional, and cultural constraints continue to work against us, pointing to knowledge gaps that must be addressed. This paper identifies three challenge themes to improve our understanding of the role of infrastructure and technologies in urbanization processes and position these increasingly complex systems for low-carbon growth. The challenges emphasize how we reimagine the role of infrastructure in the future and how people, institutions, and ecological systems interface with infrastructure.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2014-07-03
    Description: Resolving challenges related to the sustainability of natural capital and ecosystem services is an urgent issue. No roadmap on reaching sustainability exists; and the kind of sustainable land use required in a world that acknowledges both multiple environmental boundaries and local human well-being presents a quandary. In this commentary we argue that a new globally consistent and expandable systems-analytical framework is needed to guide and facilitate decision making on sustainability from the planetary through to the local level, and vice versa. This framework would strive to link a multitude of Earth-system processes and targets; it would give preference to systemic insight over data complexity through being highly explicit in spatio-temporal terms. Its strength would lie in its ability to help scientists uncover and explore potential, and even unexpected, interactions between Earth's subsystems with planetary environmental boundaries and socioeconomic constraints coming into play. Equally importantly, such a framework would allow countries like Brazil, a case study in this article, to understand domestic or even local sustainability measures within a global perspective and to optimize them accordingly.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2014-04-11
    Description: Stable global temperatures of the last 10-15 years have been a topic of considerable discussion. A new proxy extension of the global temperature record enables better placement of this feature in a longer historical perspective. The fixed-grid composite covers the interval 1801-1984, with an extension to 1782 and anchors the global temperature record in the last major cold interval of the Little Ice Age (LIA), when carbon dioxide concentration was at pre-anthropogenic levels. Except for greater and longer cooling (approximately twice the length of Pinatubo) associated with the Tambora eruption, the proxy agrees with the most widely-cited previous assessment of global temperature over this interval, lending more confidence to a centennial extension of the global temperature record. The proxy correlation is as high as 0.83 for the interval 1907-1984 (df = 8, p = 0.001), with the 21 st century 1.0 ± 0.2˚C warmer than the non-volcanic base state. This remarkable linearity requires a clear theoretical understanding as to how an exceedingly complex system can, on the global average, behave in such a simple way. Removal of the linear radiatively-forced component from the global temperature record yields an estimate of natural variability for the last 230 years and indicates no unusual natural variability during the recent 10-15 years. Based on the estimate of unforced variability over the last 170 years, there is about a 40% chance of continued ‘natural cooling’ over the next few years, with about a 10% chance of cooling persisting into the next decade.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2014-04-10
    Description: Reducing methane losses is a concern for climate change policy and energy policy. The energy sector is the major source of anthropogenic methane emissions into the atmosphere in Ukraine. Reducing methane emissions and avoiding combustion can be very cost-effective, but various barriers prevent such energy-efficiency measures from taking place. To date, few examples of industry-wide improvements exist. One example of substantial investments into upgrading natural gas transmission system comes from Ukraine's natural gas transmission company, Ukrtransgaz. The company's investments into system upgrades, along with a 34 percent fall in throughput, resulted in reduction of Ukrtransgaz system's own consumption of natural gas by 68 percent in 2011 compared to the level in 2005. Evaluating reductions in methane emissions is challenging because of lack of accurate data and gaps in accounting methodologies. At the same time, Ukraine's transmission system has undergone improvements that, at the very least, have contained methane emissions, if not substantially reduced them. In this paper, we describe recent developments in Ukraine's natural gas transmission system and analyze the incentives that forced the sector to pay close attention to its methane losses. Ukraine is one of the most energy-intensive countries, among the largest natural gas consumers in the world, and a significant emitter of methane. The country is also dependent on imports of natural gas. A combination of several factors has created conditions for successful reductions in methane emissions and combustion. These factors include: an eightfold increase in the price of imported natural gas; comprehensive domestic environmental and energy policies, such as the Laws of Ukraine on Protecting the Natural Environment and on Air Protection; policies aimed at integration with European Union's energy market and accession to the Energy Community Treaty; and the country's participation in international cooperation on environment, such as through the Joint Implementation mechanism and the voluntary Global Methane Initiative. Learning about such case studies can help policymakers and sustainability professionals design better policies elsewhere.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2014-04-05
    Description: By trapping sediment in reservoirs, dams interrupt the continuity of sediment transport through rivers, resulting in loss of reservoir storage and reduced usable life, and depriving downstream reaches of sediments essential for channel form and aquatic habitats. With the acceleration of new dam construction globally, these impacts are increasingly widespread. There are proven techniques to pass sediment through or around reservoirs, to preserve reservoir capacity and to minimize downstream impacts, but they are not applied in many situations where they would be effective. This paper summarizes collective experience from five continents in managing reservoir sediments and mitigating downstream sediment starvation. Where geometry is favorable it is often possible to bypass sediment around the reservoir, which avoids reservoir sedimentation and supplies sediment to downstream reaches with rates and timing similar to pre-dam conditions. Sluicing (or drawdown routing) permits sediment to be transported through the reservoir rapidly to avoid sedimentation during high flows; it requires relatively large capacity outlets. Drawdown flushing involves scouring and re-suspending sediment deposited in the reservoir and transporting it downstream through low-level gates in the dam; it works best in narrow reservoirs with steep longitudinal gradients and with flow velocities maintained above the threshold to transport sediment. Turbidity currents can often be vented through the dam, with the advantage that the reservoir need not be drawn down to pass sediment. In planning dams, we recommend that these sediment management approaches be utilized where possible to sustain reservoir capacity and minimize environmental impacts of dams.
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2014-04-05
    Description: Key Points Most people don't know there is a scientific consensus about climate change This lack of awareness undermines public engagement in climate change Setting the record straight will have important positive consequences
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2014-11-18
    Description: Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and forcing of Earth's climate system over the industrial era have been re-examined in two new assessments: the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and a study by A. Otto and others ( Nature Geosci ., 2013). The ranges of these quantities given in these assessments and also in the Fourth (2007) IPCC Assessment are analyzed here within the framework of a planetary energy balance model, taking into account the observed increase in global mean surface temperature over the instrumental record together with best estimates of the rate of increase of planetary heat content. This analysis shows systematic differences among the several assessments and apparent inconsistencies within individual assessments. Importantly, the likely range of ECS to doubled CO 2 given in AR5, 1.5 to 4.5 K/(3.7 W m -2 ) exceeds the range inferred from the assessed likely range of forcing, 1.2 to 2.9 K/(3.7 W m −2 ), where 3.7 W m −2 denotes the forcing for doubled CO 2 . Such differences underscore the need to identify their causes and reduce the underlying uncertainties. Explanations might involve underestimated negative aerosol forcing, overestimated total forcing, overestimated climate sensitivity, poorly constrained ocean heating, limitations of the energy balance model, or a combination of effects. Summary: Recent assessments of Earth's climate sensitivity and forcings over the industrial period, taking into account the observed increase in global mean surface temperature and rate of increase of planetary heat content, exhibit differences and apparent inconsistencies.
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  • 26
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    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2014-09-16
    Description: Key Points Onset of the Anthropocene Redefining the Holocene
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2014-08-14
    Description: This paper explores the urban carbon cycle from the natural sciences perspective, identifying key knowledge gaps and priority areas for future research. The combination of large, concentrated carbon fluxes and rapid change makes cities key elements of the carbon cycle and offers the potential for them to serve as “first responders” for climate action. Estimates of urban-scale carbon fluxes are significantly more uncertain than at larger spatial scales, in part because past studies have mostly avoided local/urban scales where the mix of anthropogenic and natural fluxes is complex and difficult to observationally isolate. To develop effective emission-reductions policies, we need to understand emission sources and how they may be changing. Such improved quantification and understanding of underlying processes at the urban scale will not only provide policy-relevant information and improve the understanding of urban dynamics and future scenarios, but will translate into better global-scale anthropogenic flux estimates, and advance our understanding of carbon cycle and climate feedbacks across multiple scales. Understanding the relationship between urbanization and urban carbon flows requires intellectual integration with research communities beyond the natural sciences. Cities can serve as interdisciplinary process laboratories that are sufficiently constrained in both spatial and governance scale to support truly integrated research by the natural sciences, social sciences, and engineering. A thoughtfully crafted science research agenda that is grounded in sustained, dense observations relevant to estimating urban carbon fluxes and their controlling processes and is focused on a statistically significant sample of cities will advance our understanding of the carbon cycle.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2014-08-13
    Description: Public perception and regulation of environmental hazards are important factors in the development and configuration of cities. Throughout California, probabilistic seismic hazard mapping and geologic investigations of active faults have spatially quantified earthquake hazard. In Los Angeles, these analyses have informed earthquake engineering, public awareness, the insurance industry, and the government regulation of developments near faults. Understanding the impact of natural hazards regulation on the social and built geography of cities is vital for informing future science and policy directions. We constructed a relative social vulnerability index classification for Los Angeles to examine the social condition within regions of significant seismic hazard; including areas regulated as Alquist-Priolo (AP) Act earthquake fault zones. Despite hazard disclosures, social vulnerability is lowest within AP regulatory zones and vulnerability increases with distance from them. Because the AP Act requires building setbacks from active faults, newer developments in these zones are bisected by parks. Parcel-level analysis demonstrates that homes adjacent to these fault zone parks are the most valuable in their neighborhoods. At a broad scale, a Landsat-based normalized difference vegetation index shows that greenness near AP zones is greater than the rest of the metropolitan area. In the parks-poor city of Los Angeles, fault zone regulation has contributed to the construction of park space within areas of earthquake hazard, thus transforming zones of natural hazard into amenities, attracting populations of relatively high social status, and demonstrating that the distribution of social vulnerability is sometimes more strongly tied to amenities than hazards.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2014-08-13
    Description: The recent intensification of international trade has led to a globalization of food commodities and to an increased disconnection between human populations and the land and water resources that support them through crop and livestock production. Several countries are not self-sufficient and depend on imports from other regions. Despite the recognized importance of the role of trade in global and regional food security, the societal reliance on domestic production and international trade remains poorly quantified. Here we investigate the global patterns of food trade and evaluate the dependency of food security on imports. We investigate the relationship existing between the trade of food calories and the virtual transfer of water used for their production. We show how the amount of food calories traded in the international market has more than doubled between 1986 and 2009, while the number of links in the trade network has increased by more than 50%. Likewise, global food production has increased by more than 50% in the same period, providing an amount of food that is overall sufficient to support the global population at a rate of 2700-3000 kcal per person per day. About 23% of the food produced for human consumption is traded internationally. The Water Use Efficiency of food trade (i.e., food calories produced per unit volume of water used) has declined in the last few decades. The water use efficiency of food production overall increases with the countries’ affluence; this trend is likely due to the use of more advanced technology.
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2014-08-21
    Description: This paper outlines the contributions of social science to the study of interactions between urbanization patterns and processes and the carbon cycle, and identifies gaps in knowledge and priority areas for future social scientific research contributions. While previously studied as a uni-dimensional process, we conceptualize urbanization as a multi-dimensional, social and biophysical process driven by continuous changes across space and time in various sub-systems including biophysical, built environment and socio-institutional (e.g. economic, political, demographic, behavioral and sociological). We review research trends and findings focused on the socio-institutional subsystem of the urbanization process, and particularly the dynamics, relationships and predictions relevant to energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Our findings suggest that a multi-dimensional perspective of urbanization facilitates a wider spectrum of research relevant to carbon cycle dynamics, even within the socio-institutional sub-system. However, there is little consensus around the details and mechanisms underlying the relationship between urban socio-institutional subsystems and the carbon cycle. We argue that progress in understanding the relationship between urbanization and the carbon cycle may be achieved if social scientists work collaboratively with each other as well as with scientists from other disciplines. From this review we identify research priorities where collaborative social scientific efforts are necessary in conjunction with other disciplinary approaches to generate a more complete understanding of urbanization as a process and its relationship to the carbon cycle.
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2014-07-17
    Description: . Recent studies identified the U.S. East Coast north of Cape Hatteras as a “hotspot” for accelerated sea level rise (SLR), and the analysis presented here show that the area is also a “hotspot for accelerated flooding”. The duration of minor tidal flooding (defined as 0.3 m above MHHW) has accelerated in recent years for most coastal locations from the Gulf of Maine to Florida. The average increase in annual minor flooding duration was ~20 hours from the period until 1970 to 1971–1990, and ~50 hours from 1971–1990 to 1991–2013; spatial variations in acceleration of flooding resembles the spatial variations of acceleration in sea level. The increase in minor flooding can be predicted from SLR and tidal range, but the frequency of extreme storm-surge flooding events (0.9 m above MHHW) is less predictable, and affected by the North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO). The number of extreme storm surge events since 1960 oscillates with a period of ~15-year and interannual variations in the number of storms is anti-correlated with the NAO index. With higher seas, there are also more flooding events that are unrelated to storm surges. For example, it is demonstrated that week-long flooding events in Norfolk, VA, are often related to periods of decrease in the Florida Current transport. The results indicate that previously reported connections between decadal variations in the Gulf Stream and coastal sea level may also apply to short-term variations, so flood predictions may be improved if the Gulf Stream influence is considered.
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2014-08-30
    Description: Independent lines of research on urbanization, urban areas and carbon have advanced our understanding of some of the processes through which energy and land uses affect carbon. This synthesis integrates some of these diverse viewpoints as a first step towards a co-produced, integrated framework for understanding urbanization, urban areas and their relationships to carbon. It suggests the need for approaches that complement and combine the plethora of existing insights into interdisciplinary explorations of how different urbanization processes, and socio-ecological and technological components of urban areas affect the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon emissions, differentially over time and within and across cities. It also calls for a more holistic approach to examining the carbon implications of urbanization and urban areas, based not only on demographics or income, but also on such other interconnected features of urban development pathways as urban form, economic function, economic growth policies and other governance arrangements. It points to a wide array of uncertainties around the urbanization processes, their interactions with urban socio-institutional and built-environment systems, how these impact the exchange of carbon flows within and outside urban areas. We must also understand in turn how carbon feedbacks, including carbon impacts and potential impacts of climate change, can affect urbanization processes. Finally, the paper explores options, barriers and limits to transitioning cities to low-carbon trajectories, and suggests the development of an end-to-end, co-produced and integrated scientific understanding that can more effectively inform the navigation of transitional journeys and the avoidance of obstacles along the way.
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2014-05-21
    Description: When sea ice forms it scavenges and concentrates particulates from the water column, which then become trapped until the ice melts. In recent years, melting has led to record lows in Arctic sea ice extent, the most recent in September 2012. Global climate models, such as that of Gregory et al. [2002], suggest that the decline in Arctic sea ice volume (3.4% per decade), will actually exceed the decline in sea ice extent, something that Laxon et al . [2013] have shown supported by satellite data. The extent to which melting ice could release anthropogenic particulates back to the open ocean has not yet been examined. Here we show that Arctic sea ice from remote locations contains concentrations of microplastics at least two orders of magnitude greater than those that have been previously reported in highly contaminated surface waters, such as those of the Pacific Gyre. Our findings indicate that microplastics have accumulated far from population centers and that polar sea ice represents a major historic global sink of man-made particulates. The potential for substantial quantities of legacy microplastic contamination to be released to the ocean as the ice melts therefore needs to be evaluated, as do the physical and toxicological effects of plastics on marine life.
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2014-06-17
    Description: We used the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) global two-dimensional (2D) atmospheric model to investigate the stratospheric ozone response to a proposed geoengineering activity wherein a reduced top-of-atmosphere (TOA) solar irradiance is imposed to help counteract a quadrupled CO 2 atmosphere. This study is similar to the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) Experiment G1. Three primary simulations were completed with the GSFC 2D model to examine this possibility: A) a pre-industrial atmosphere with a boundary condition of 285 ppmv CO 2 ( piControl ); B) a base future atmosphere with 1140 ppmv CO 2 ( abrupt4xCO2 ); and C) a perturbed future atmosphere with 1140 ppmv CO 2 and a 4% reduction in the TOA total solar irradiance ( G1 ). We found huge ozone enhancements throughout most of the stratosphere (up to 40%) as a result of a large computed temperature decrease (up to 18K) when CO 2 was quadrupled (compare simulation abrupt4xCO2 to piControl ). Further, we found that ozone will additionally increase (up to 5%) throughout most of the stratosphere with total ozone increases of 1-2.5% as a result of a reduction in TOA total solar irradiance (compare simulation G1 to abrupt4xCO2 ). Decreases of atomic oxygen and temperature are the main drivers of this computed ozone enhancement from a reduction in TOA total solar irradiance.
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2014-05-29
    Description: We assess the ability of global water systems, resolved at 282 Assessment Sub Regions (ASRs), to the meet water requirements under integrated projections of socioeconomic growth and climate change. We employ a Water Resource System (WRS) component embedded within the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework in a suite of simulations that consider a range of climate policies and regional hydro-climate changes out to 2050. For many developing nations, water-demand increases due to population growth and economic activity have a much stronger effect on water stress than climate change. By 2050, economic growth and population change alone can lead to an additional 1.8 billion people living under at least moderate water stress, with 80% of these located in developing countries. Uncertain regional climate change can play a secondary role to either exacerbate or dampen the increase in water stress. The strongest climate impacts on water stress are seen in Africa, but strong impacts also occur over Europe, Southeast Asia and North America. The combined effects of socioeconomic growth and uncertain climate change lead to a 1.0 to 1.3 billion increase of the world's 2050 projected population living with overly exploited water conditions— where total potential water requirements will consistently exceed surface-water supply. This would imply that adaptive measures would be taken to meet these surface-water shortfalls and include: water-use efficiency, reduced and/or redirected consumption, recurrent periods of water emergencies or curtailments, groundwater depletion, additional inter-basin transfers, and overdraw from flow intended to maintain environmental requirements.
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2014-06-14
    Description: Sea-level rise due to both climate change and non-climatic factors threatens coastal settlements, infrastructure and ecosystems. Projections of mean global sea level (GSL) rise provide insufficient information to plan adaptive responses; local decisions require local projections that accommodate different risk tolerances and time frames and that can be linked to storm surge projections. Here we present a global set of local sea level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We provide complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling. Between the years 2000 and 2100, we project a very likely (90% probability) GSL rise of 0.5–1.2 m under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, 0.4–0.9 m under RCP 4.5, and 0.3–0.8 m under RCP 2.6. Site-to-site differences in LSL projections are due to varying non-climatic background uplift or subsidence, oceanographic effects, and spatially-variable responses of the geoid and the lithosphere to shrinking land ice. The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) constitutes a growing share of variance in GSL and LSL projections. In the global average and at many locations, it is the dominant source of variance in late 21st century projections, though at some sites oceanographic processes contribute the largest share throughout the century. LSL rise dramatically reshapes flood risk, greatly increasing the expected number of ‘1-in-10’ and ‘1-in-100’ year events. Summary Local sea-level rise generally differs from global sea-level rise, with differences arising from local uplift or subsidence, ocean dynamics, and the sea-level response to shrinking land ice. Uncertain Antarctic ice sheet mass loss is the largest source of uncertainty in late-century projections globally and at most sites, although ocean dynamics is the major source in some locations. Sea-level rise greatly amplifies flood risk, pointing to the need for including sea-level rise allowances in flood risk assessments.
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  • 37
    Publication Date: 2014-07-27
    Description: Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2 "∘ C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large-scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2 "∘ C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full post-process combustion CO 2 capture is deployed with a high fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required, however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO 2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise a conflict of land-use with food production is inevitable.
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  • 38
    Publication Date: 2014-12-20
    Description: Quantifying the spatial and temporal patterns of the water lost to the atmosphere through land surface evapotranspiration (ET) is essential for understanding the global hydrological cycle, but remains much uncertain. In this study, we use the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) to estimate the global terrestrial ET during 2000–2009 and project its changes in response to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO 2 under two IPCC SRES scenarios (A2 and B1) during 2010–2099. Modeled results show a mean annual global terrestrial ET of about 549 (545–552) mm yr −1 during 2000–2009. Relative to the 2000s, global terrestrial ET for the 2090's would increase by 30.7 mm/year (5.6%) and 13.2 mm/year (2.4%) under the A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. About 60% of global land area would experience increasing ET at rates of over 9.5 mm/decade over the study period under the A2 scenario. The Arctic region would have the largest ET increase (16% compared with the 2000s level) due to larger increase in temperature than other regions. Decreased ET would mainly take place in regions like central and western Asia, northern Africa, Australia, eastern South America and Greenland due to declines in soil moisture and changing rainfall patterns. Our results indicate that warming temperature and increasing precipitation would result in large increase in ET by the end of the 21 st century, while increasing atmospheric CO 2 would be responsible for decrease of ET, given the reduction of stomatal conductance under elevated CO 2 .
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  • 39
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    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Bulletin of economic research 46 (1994), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1467-8586
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: This paper examines the forward-looking rational expectations buffer stock model of Cuthbertson and Taylor (1987) in the context of the personal sector of the UK. The buffer stock model is evaluated for both narrow and broad money definitions in the UK using the encompassing the VAR methodology of Mizon (1984). This suggests that the buffer stock model is a congruent model, and that the broad definition is the most appropriate aggregate with which to model buffering behaviour — in line with previous studies, Mizen (1992). Further analysis of the models, in the light of Hendry (1988), confirms this view.
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  • 40
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    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Bulletin of economic research 46 (1994), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1467-8586
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: The concept of Nash equilibrium is widely used to analyse non-cooperative games. However, one of the problems with that concept is that many games have multiple equilibria. Recent work has concentrated on reducing or refining the set of Nash equilibria in some games. In this paper, we survey some equilibrium concepts based on perturbations of strategies that refine the set of Nash equilibria. We discuss the pros and cons of each concept and its relationship to the others by the use of numerous examples and intuition. It is hoped that this survey will enable the economist to consider the relevance of a particular equilibrium concept to a given economic model of interest. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: C72.
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  • 41
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    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Bulletin of economic research 46 (1994), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1467-8586
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: The modified theory of the Illyrian firm was developed, in part, to correct a perversity exhibited by the traditional theory of the Illyrian firm — that output rises in response to a fall in output price or a rise in fixed costs. We show that while this revised model has solved the problem for the short-run the problem remains in the long-run, and this long-run perversity may have important policy implications for the short-run as well. We also show that the under-production problem associated with the traditional LMF is mitigated (and perhaps even reversed) in the modified LMF.
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  • 42
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    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Bulletin of economic research 46 (1994), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1467-8586
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Using a fairly general principal-agent model in which both firms and workers can affect the risk of a workplace accident, this note shows theoretically that an accident tax and/or a safety bonus scheme could unambiguously reduce the incidence of workplace accidents, contrary to the ambiguous theoretical results that are obtained with safety regulations
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  • 43
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    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Bulletin of economic research 45 (1993), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1467-8586
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: This paper outlines the development and exposits some of the central ideas and implications of asymmetric information in the credit market.
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  • 44
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    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Bulletin of economic research 45 (1993), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1467-8586
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: This paper uses a unique data set of unemployed semi-skilled workers to examine the relationship between reservation wages and the decision to queue for a union sector job. Estimation of selected reservation wage equations indicates that the failure of all previous estimates to model the queuing decision results in biased coefficients. Those workers who queue for a union job are subject to a distinct reservation wage formation process which differs from those not queuing. Moreover, a structural estimate of the queuing decision demonstrates that workers with the greatest differences between estimated reservation wages in the union and non-union sector are the most likely to queue. This estimate of the queuing decision stands as one of the few which focus on unemployed workers. Among other results, women and minorities are more likely to queue for union jobs, all else equal.
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  • 45
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    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Bulletin of economic research 45 (1993), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1467-8586
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: A credit market is introduced into an IS-LM model with wealth effects and the government budget constraint explicitly considered, The model is able to handle issues such as a credit market shock that would be impossible to examine in standard models without a credit market. The analysis of more standard policies or shocks is enhanced by recognition of the role of the credit market, thus supporting the view that such recognition is both feasible and warranted.
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  • 46
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    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Bulletin of economic research 45 (1993), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1467-8586
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: A two-period macroeconomic model where consumption and investment decisions are given microeconomic foundations is presented. The model is used to analyse the effects of both current and anticipated fiscal expansion; careful attention is paid to the implications of the government's intertemporal budget constraint. It is shown that anticipated fiscal expansion may, in certain circumstances, be expansionary. Also, current fiscal expansion, if financed by bonds which are retired through future money creation, may be contractionary.
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  • 47
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    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Bulletin of economic research 45 (1993), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1467-8586
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: The results found here indicate that American labor does influence importantly the level of imports and exports of manufactures in the US. In particular, imports tend to be lower and exports tend to be higher in those industries in which higher skilled American workers are used more abundantly. Moreover, labor efficiency and productivity also influence inversely the level of imports and directly the level of exports.
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  • 48
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    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Bulletin of economic research 44 (1992), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1467-8586
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: The paper develops a mean variance model to characterize the price efficiency at the firm level in Farrell's model and shows how risk aversion may affect this measure. Problems of estimating the structural efficiency at the industry level are also discussed and it is shown that this involves a comparison between efficiency distributions of two or more industries. Two empirical applications for the two efficiency measures are also discussed.
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  • 49
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    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Bulletin of economic research 44 (1992), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1467-8586
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Economics
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  • 50
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    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Bulletin of economic research 44 (1992), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1467-8586
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: This paper presents a model of a risk averse multinational firm under exchange rate risk. The firm, which owns and controls assets in two countries, is engaged in production, sales and forward contracting whenever forward markets exist. First, we investigate the effects of exchange rate uncertainty without any risk sharing markets. It is shown that the firm internalizes missing hedging markets by increasing foreign production and lowering foreign sales. Therefore the firm hedges by repatriating foreign profits in the form of goods. Second, the implications of the existence of forward markets of global market decisions are discussed. It is shown that a separation theorem holds. This does not imply that the multinational firm shifts all the risk into the forward exchange market.
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    Notes: The level of effort which would be set by a firm hiring in a competitive labour market is contrasted with the effort level which would be chosen by a utilitarian trade union.
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    Notes: This paper proves the existence and uniqueness of Cournot equilibrium in models of international trade under oligopoly. The existence of Cournot equilibrium is established without the usual assumption that profit functions are concave. Instead the proof uses a weaker‘aggregate concavity’condition. A simple proof is used to establish the uniqueness of the equilibrium. And, the paper considers the implications of the assumptions, used to prove the existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium, on the comparative static results.
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    Bulletin of economic research 43 (1991), S. 0 
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    Notes: When oligopolists merge, the new firm enjoys a lower cost structure than any of its premerger constituent parts. This is because of rationalization economies which are created as facilities previously operated at disparate marginal cost levels come under common control. The resultant price-decreasing force is countered by the loss of competition due to the merger. The latter can stem not only from reduction in the number of competitors, but also from the possibility that, with a more concentrated market structure, firms’conjectures about each others’reactions will move in the direction of being more cooperative. The paper shows that, under normal conditions, the effects of diminished competition outweigh those of rationalization so that a price increase will result from the merger. In addition, the equivalence of merger to the imposition of taxes is exploited to derive a market-share based test for mergers to cause welfare decreases. This complements a test proposed by Farrell and Shapiro that works only for welfare increases.
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    Notes: This paper explores an export subsidy game in an international duopoly in which governments of countries as well as firms hold conjectures about the response of other governments. In the framework with linear demand/quadratic cost functions, a homogeneous good and no home consumption, I shall obtain the relations among the conjectural variation of firms, that of governments, and the optimal subsidies for countries. And I shall show that if and only if firms hold the consistent conjectures, Nash type behavior (zero conjectural variation) of governments is consistent.
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    Notes: Currently available price series for slaves during the eighteenth century need to be treated with much caution, and it seems unlikely that large quantities of new evidence will be unearthed. Further progress toward the creation of more reliable price series will thus require new methods of estimation. In this paper, a new price series for slaves at the African coast is calculated using data relating to the number of slaves shipped from the coast by British traders and the value of trade goods bartered for them.
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    Bulletin of economic research 42 (1990), S. 0 
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    Notes: This paper examines the introduction of monopolistic competition into wage bargaining models: in addition to capital-labour substitution, we also consider a cost-push effect. The right-to-manage model requires strong restrictions on the objective functions and leads to problematic conclusions because the wage claims of the union are generally not compatible with the mark-up requirement contained in the firm's price equation. In the efficient bargaining model, the union negotiates also the employment level, which gives it a way of extracting part of the monopoly rent: the firm's commitment to an efficient wage-employment combination forces it to follow a pricing rule such that part of the surplus is transferred to the union.
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    Notes: This paper extends Becker's basic model on investment in human capital by introducing effort as a decision variable. Based on this extended model we consider the efficiency of two popular study-grant schemes and propose a third which unequivocally increases the student's effort and may thereby resolve the moral hazard problem created by the student's self-interested behaviour. In addition, some policy issues concerning conflicts between the students' and the policy-maker's objectives are discussed.
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    Notes: A three factor, two sector general equilibrium model is used to determine long run income distributional impacts of factor supply changes associated with international migration in developing and newly industrializing countries. Factor intensity rankings among three factors (capital, skilled and unskilled labor) between two industries (agriculture and manufacturing-services) play a critical role in determining which factors are natural friends with respect to migration. A result common to all countries is observed friendship between capital and unskilled labor: reducing (increasing) the supply of one will lower (raise) payments to the other.
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    Notes: This paper presents a labor turnover model in which urban employers have an economic incentive to support an urban bias in development policies because of the indirect effect of rural incomes on urban training expenditures through the rate of labor turnover. A comparative static analysis of the model shows that an income transfer from rural workers to urban workers increases the profits of urban employers, even if urban employers are not directly involved in the transfer. Unlike previous versions of the labor turnover model, worker behavior is explicitly grounded in utility maximization.
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    Notes: This paper develops a model of the equilibrium unemploymentvacancy relationship, drawing upon concepts in the job searchlabour turnover literature, and uses that model to explain recent shifts in the uv curve for Great Britain. The analysis involves two stages: the estimation of a dynamic employment adjustment equation, and then the solution of the estimated form for the implicit, equilibrium uv relationship at different points in time. In this approach it is possible to attribute shifts in the uv curve to various exogenous factors such as the movement in real wages relative to productivity, external competitiveness, mismatching between jobs and workers, and the replacement ratio.
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    Notes: A model of an open economy, in which two goods, a tradeable and a non-tradeable, are distinguished, is constructed. There is also an intermediate input (oil) which is both produced domestically and traded, and which is used as an input in the traded sector. There are two assets, money and internationally traded bonds. In the model the effects of various changes, including an increase in the money supply, and increases in both the world price of, and the domestic output of, oil, are analysed.
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    Notes: This paper generalizes an earlier paper by Heal (1976) in which the‘lemons problem’is analysed in an exchange framework over time. Heal showed that the Akerlof (1970) rule that bad goods (lemons) always drive out good may not always be a valid one. Heal's anti-lemons result is also shown to be a Balanced Tempta-Equilibrium (B.T.E.) in the supergame. But it is also shown, paradoxically, that the B.T.E. can itself be dominated by certain strategies, hence there is a direct counterpart to the constituent version of the Lemons Game in its supergame analogue.
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    Notes: This note demonstrates how recent results in the literature on true cost-of-living indices are of direct relevance to attempts to measure Hicks’compensating and equivalent variations because of the close inter-relationship between the Hicksian surplus measures and true (or constant-utility) price indices.
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    Notes: Interfuel substitution, a priori, seems to be of considerable importance in the economy of the United Kingdom. Consequently, an appropriate model is developed and estimated. All energy sources are demonstrated to be substitutable. Coal is the most price responsive with natural gas, oil and electrical following. The results are not inconsistent with other studies of energy substitution. Moreover, when the issue of the stability of the demand for energy types is considered, the suggestion that the demand for coal, oil, natural gas, and electrical energy have remained virtually constant over the past three decades.
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    Notes: In this paper a model of depository firm behavior is developed in which the depository institution acts as a multiple product producer. The multi-product model is an application of the general theory of value to the particular case of depository firms. It generalizes the theory of bank behavior to include production and cost aspects of banking activity as well as its financial aspects and reconciles the rivaling intermediary and firm-theoretic views on depository institutions. By so doing, it bridges the gap between models which treat depository firms as mere portfolio holders and those which analyze the check clearance function in isolation. Risk aversion, production function constraint, jointness, and multiple sources of uncertainty are simultaneously introduced. The model is used to analyze the effects of interest payment on transaction balances, interest payment on reserves of depository institutions by the Central bank, and the Central bank policy swings.
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    Notes: This paper examines the short-run effects of changing government expenditure on output, consumption and employment. It attempts to combine the Public-Finance and macroeconomic approaches to the analysis of fiscal policy by introducing government expenditure which is ‘useful’ in consumption into an ISLM-type macro model which is derived from the singleperiod maximizing decisions of households and firms and which includes a government budget constraint.The principal conclusion is that the effects of fiscal policy on output and employment depend on the ‘efficiency’ of government expenditure. The more efficiently government expenditure meets consumption needs, the less effective is fiscal policy to the point where the fiscal-policy multiplier may be negative.
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    Notes: In this paper population growth is the outcome of a utility maximizing process undertaken by each working generation. This is distinct from the usual treatment of population growth as an exogenous variable. Steady state growth paths are analysed, and the model is extended to allow for international lending and borrowing. The results obtained broadly correspond to the case of a given rate of increase of population, but under certain assumptions it is found that a capital importing country will have a faster rate of growth as a result of being able to borrow on international capital markets.
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    Notes: The purpose of this paper is to derive the demand functions corresponding to an intertemporal linear expenditure system in which goods are durable, and in which there are penalty costs for changes in planned stocks. Taste changes over time can be interpreted as changes in the technology converting goods into characteristics.
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