ALBERT

Description: A preliminary comparison of the GEOS-1 (Goddard Earth Observing System) data assimilation system convective cloud mass fluxes with fluxes from a cloud-resolving model (the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model, GCE) is reported. A squall line case study (10-11 June 1985 Oklahoma PRESTORM episode) is the basis of the comparison. Regional (central U. S.) monthly total convective mass flux for June 1985 from GEOS-1 compares favorably with estimates from a statistical/dynamical approach using GCE simulations and satellite-derived cloud observations. The GEOS-1 convective mass fluxes produce reasonable estimates of monthly-averaged regional convective venting of CO from the boundary layer at least in an urban-influenced continental region, suggesting that they can be used in tracer transport simulations.

Description: The U.S. upper Midwest was subjected to severe flooding during the summer of 1993. Heavy rainfall in the Mississippi River basin from April through July caused flooding on many Midwest rivers, including the Mississippi, Illinois, Missouri, and Kansas Rivers. The flood crest of 15.1 m at St. Louis, Missouri, on 1 August 1993 was the highest ever measured, surpassing the previous record of 13.2 m set on 28 April 1973. Damage estimates include at least 47 flood-related deaths and a total damage cost of $12 billion. Remotely sensed imagery of severe flooding in the U.S. Midwest was obtained under cloud-free skies on 29 July 1993 by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Airborne Simulator (MAS). The MAS is a newly developed scanning spectrometer with 50 spectral bands in the wavelength range 0.55-14.3 micrometers. Estimation of the total flooded area in the MAS scene acquired near St. Louis was accomplished by comparing the MAS scene to a Landsat-5 thematic mapper (TM) scene of the same area acquired on 14 April 1984 in nonflood conditions. For comparison, the MAS band centered at 0.94 micrometers and the TM band centered at 1.65 micrometers were selected because of the high contrast seen in these bands between land and water-covered surfaces. An estimate of the area covered by water in the MAS and TM scenes was obtained by developing land/water brightness thresholds from histograms of the MAS and TM digital image data. Afetr applying the thresholds, the difference between the area covered by water in the MAS and TM scenes, and hence the flooded area in the MAS scene, was found to be about 396 sq km, or about 153 square miles.

Description: Shortwave radiative fluxes that reach the earth's surface are key factors that influence atmospheric and oceanic circulations as well as surface climate. Yet, information on these fluxes is meager. Surface site data are generally available from only a limited number of observing stations over land. Much less is known about the large-scale variability of the shortwave radiative fluxes over the oceans, which cover most of the globe. Recognizing the need to produce global-scale fields of such fluxes for use in climate research, the World Climate Research Program has initiated activities that led to the establishment of the Surface Radiation Budget Climatology Project with the ultimate goal to determine various components of the surface radiation budget from satellite data. In this paper, the first global products that resulted from this activity are described. Monthly and daily data on a 280-km grid scale are available. Samples of climate parameters obtainable from the dataset are presented. Emphasis is given to validation and limitations of the results. For most of the globe, satellite estimates have bias values between +/- 20 W/sq m and root mean square (rms) values are around 25 W/sq m. There are specific regions with much larger uncertainties however.

Description: The deployment of a space-based Doppler lidar would provide information that is fundamental to advancing the understanding and prediction of weather and climate. This paper reviews the concepts of wind measurement by Doppler lidar, highlights the results of some observing system simulation experiments with lidar winds, and discusses the important advances in earth system science anticipated with lidar winds. Observing system simulation experiments, conducted using two different general circulation models, have shown (1) that there is a significant improvement in the forecast accuracy over the Southern Hemisphere and tropical oceans resulting from the assimilation of simulated satellite wind data, and (2) that wind data are significantly more effective than temperature or moisture data in controlling analysis error. Because accurate wind observations are currently almost entirely unavailable for the vast majority of tropical cyclones worldwide, lidar winds have the potential to substan- tially improve tropical cyclone forecasts. Similarly, to improve water vapor flux divergence calculations, a direct measure of the ageostrophic wind is needed since the present level of uncer- tainty cannot be reduced with better temperature and moisture soundings alone.

Description: The 'satellite-gauge model' (SGM) technique is described for combining precipitation estimates from microwave satellite data, infrared satellite data, rain gauge analyses, and numerical weather prediction models into improved estimates of global precipitation. Throughout, monthly estimates on a 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees lat-long grid are employed. First, a multisatellite product is developed using a combination of low-orbit microwave and geosynchronous-orbit infrared data in the latitude range 40 degrees N - 40 degrees S (the adjusted geosynchronous precipitation index) and low-orbit microwave data alone at higher latitudes. Then the rain gauge analysis is brougth in, weighting each field by its inverse relative error variance to produce a nearly global, observationally based precipitation estimate. To produce a complete global estimate, the numerical model results are used to fill data voids in the combined satellite-gauge estimate. Our sequential approach to combining estimates allows a user to select the multisatellite estimate, the satellite-gauge estimate, or the full SGM estimate (observationally based estimates plus the model information). The primary limitation in the method is imperfections in the estimation of relative error for the individual fields. The SGM results for one year of data (July 1987 to June 1988) show important differences from the individual estimates, including model estimates as well as climatological estimates. In general, the SGM results are drier in the subtropics than the model and climatological results, reflecting the relatively dry microwave estimates that dominate the SGM in oceanic regions.

Description: The lower stratospheric variability of equatorial water vapor, measured by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), follows an annual cycle modulated by the quasi-biennial oscillation. At levels higher in the stratosphere, water vapor measurements exhibit a semi-annual oscillatory signal with the largest amplitudes at 2.2 and 1hPa. Zonal-mean cross sections of MLS water vapor are consistent with previous satellite measurements from the limb infrared monitor of the stratosphere (LIMS) and the stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment 2 (SAGE 2) instruments in that they show water vapor increasing upwards and the polewards from a well defined minimum in the tropics. The minimum values vary in height between the retrieved 46 and 22hPa pressure levels.

Description: The absolute rate constant for the reaction O((3)P) + HOBr has been measured between T = 233K and 423K using the discharge-flow kinetic technique coupled to mass spectrometric detection. The value of the rate coefficient at room temperature is (2.5 +/- 0.6) x 10(exp -11)cu cm/molecule/s and the derived Arrhenius expression is (1.4 +/- 0.5) x 10(exp -10) exp((-430 +/- 260)/T)cu cm/molecule/s. From these rate data the atmospheric lifetime of HOBr with respect to reaction with O((3)P) is about 0.6h at z = 25 km which is comparable to the photolysis lifetime based on recent measurements of the UV cross section for HOBr. Implications for HOBr loss in the stratosphere have been tested using a 1D photochemical box model. With the inclusion of the rate parameters and products for the O + HOBr reaction, calculated concentration profiles of BrO increase by up to 33% around z = 35 km. This result indicates that the inclusion of the O + HOBr reaction in global atmospheric chemistry models may have an impact on bromine partitioning in the middle atmosphere.

Description: A diagnostic analysis of the VVP (volume velocity processing) retrieval method is presented, with emphasis on understanding the technique as a linear, multivariate regression. Similarities and differences to the velocity-azimuth display and extended velocity-azimuth display retrieval techniques are discussed, using this framework. Conventional regression diagnostics are then employed to quantitatively determine situations in which the VVP technique is likely to fail. An algorithm for preparation and analysis of a robust VVP retrieval is developed and applied to synthetic and actual datasets with high temporal and spatial resolution. A fundamental (but quantifiable) limitation to some forms of VVP analysis is inadequate sampling dispersion in the n space of the multivariate regression, manifest as a collinearity between the basis functions of some fitted parameters. Such collinearity may be present either in the definition of these basis functions or in their realization in a given sampling configuration. This nonorthogonality may cause numerical instability, variance inflation (decrease in robustness), and increased sensitivity to bias from neglected wind components. It is shown that these effects prevent the application of VVP to small azimuthal sectors of data. The behavior of the VVP regression is further diagnosed over a wide range of sampling constraints, and reasonable sector limits are established.

Description: Analysis of the version 16 Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) CH4 data shows that this long-lived trace gas is well correlated with potential vorticity (PV) computed from National Meteorological Center balanced winds. Analyzing late September and October 1992 data, we show that very low CH4 values are confined to the interior of a vortex edge defined by the maximum gradient in PV. The CH4 and HF time tendency is used to estimate the descent rate in the Antarctic vortex. After removing a component of the trend correlated with the HALOE sampling pattern, we compute the lower stratosphere vertical descent rates and net heaing rates in the spring Antarctic vortex. Our computations of the spring Antarctic vortex heating rates give -0.5 to -0.1 K/day. Over the winter season, the overall lower stratospheric descent rate averages about 1.8-1.5 km/month. These computations are in line with radiative transfer estimates of the heating and descent rate. The HALOE data thus appear to be consistent with the picture of an isolated lower stratospheric Antarctic vortex.

Description: Using delta C-13 measurements in atmospheric CO2 from a cooperative global air sampling network, we determined the partitioning of the net uptake of CO2 between ocean and land as a function of latitude and time. The majority of delta C-13 measurements were made at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR) of the University of Colorado. We perform an inverse deconvolution of both CO2 and delta C-13 observations, using a two-dimensional model of atmospheric transport. Also, the discrimination against C-13 by plant photosynthesis, as a function of latitude and time, is calculated from global runs of the simple biosphere (SiB) model. Uncertainty due to the longitudinal structure of the data, which is not represented by the model, is studied through a bootstrap analysis by adding and omitting measurement sites. The resulting error estimates for our inferred sources and sinks are of the order of 1 GTC (1 GTC = 10(exp 15) gC). Such error bars do not reflect potential systematic errors arising from our estimates of the isotopic disequilibria between the atmosphere and the oceans and biosphere, which are estimated in a separate sensitivity analysis. With respect to global totals for 1992 we found that 3.2 GTC of carbon dissolved into the ocean and that 1.5 GTC were sequestered by land ecosystems. Northern hemisphere ocean gyres north of 15 deg N absorbed 2.7 GTC. The equatorial oceans between 10 deg S and 10 deg N were a net source to the atmosphere of 0.9 GTC. We obtained a sink of 1.6 GTC in southern ocean gyres south of 20 deg S, although the deconvolution is poorly constrained by sparse data coverage at high southern latitudes. The seasonal uptake of CO2 in the northern gyres appears to be correlated with a bloom of phytoplankton in surface waters. On land, northern temperate and boreal ecosystems between 35 deg N and 65 deg N were found to be a major sink of CO2 in 1992, as large as 3.5 GTC. Northern tropical ecosystems (equator-30 deg N) appear to be a net source to the source to the atmosphere of 2 GTC which could reflect biomass burning. A small sink, 0.3 GTC, was inferred for southern tropical ecosystems (30 deg S-equator).

Description: Global sets of surface radiation budget (SRB) have been obtained from satellite programs. These satellite-based estimates need validation with ground-truth observations. This study validates the estimates of monthly mean surface insolation contained in two satellite-based SRB datasets with the surface measurements made at worldwide radiation stations from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA). One dataset was developed from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) using the algorithm of Li et al. (ERBE/SRB), and the other from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) using the algorithm of Pinker and Laszlo and that of Staylor (GEWEX/SRB). Since the ERBE/SRB data contain the surface net solar radiation only, the values of surface insolation were derived by making use of the surface albedo data contained GEWEX/SRB product. The resulting surface insolation has a bias error near zero and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) between 8 and 28 W/sq m. The RMSE is mainly associated with poor representation of surface observations within a grid cell. When the number of surface observations are sufficient, the random error is estimated to be about 5 W/sq m with present satellite-based estimates. In addition to demonstrating the strength of the retrieving method, the small random error demonstrates how well the ERBE derives from the monthly mean fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). A larger scatter is found for the comparison of transmissivity than for that of insolation. Month to month comparison of insolation reveals a weak seasonal trend in bias error with an amplitude of about 3 W/sq m. As for the insolation data from the GEWEX/SRB, larger bias errors of 5-10 W/sq m are evident with stronger seasonal trends and almost identical RMSEs.

Description: Participants in this workshop, which convened in Venice, Italy, 6-8 May 1993, met to consider the current state of climate monitoring programs and instrumentation for the purpose of climatological prediction on short-term (seasonal to interannual) timescales. Data quality and coverage requirements for definition of oceanographic heat and momentum fluxes, scales of inter- and intra-annual variability, and land-ocean-atmosphere exchange processes were examined. Advantages and disadvantages of earth-based and spaceborne monitoring systems were considered, as were the structures for future monitoring networks, research programs, and modeling studies.

Description: The work described here makes it possible to identify anomalous wind behavior such as the nighttime meridional wind abatements that occur at F-region heights. A new analysis technique uses a simple empirical wind model to simulate measurements of 'normal' winds (as measured by the Neutral Atmosphere and Temperature Experiment (NATE) that flew on the Atmosphere Explorer-E (AE-E)) to highlight anomalous wind measurements made by the satellite while in circular orbits at 270-290 km altitude. Our approach is based on the recognition that the 'in orbit' wind variation must show the combined effects of the diurnal wind variation as seen from the ground with the latitude variation of the satellite orbit. For the data period 77250-78035 examined thus far, the wind abatement always occurred with a corresponding pressure or temperature maximum, and was detected on 12 out of the 36 nights with data. This study has revealed that the wind abatement occur only during or shortly after increases in solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) flux, as indicated by daily radio flux measurements. In the past, nighttime wind reversals at mid-latitudes have been associated with increased geomagnetic activity. This study indicates that intensified solar EUV heating may be responsible for anomalous thermospheric nighttime winds at mid-latitudes.

Description: An automated scheme to characterize precipitation echoes within small windows in the radar field is presented and applied to previously subjectively classified tropical rain cloud systems near Darwin, Australia. The classification parameters are (a) E(sub e), effective efficiency, as determined by cloud-top and cloud-base water vapor saturation mixing ratios; (b) BBF, brightband fraction, as determined by the fraction of the radar echo area in which the maximal reflectivity occurs within +/- 1.5 km of the 0 C isotherm level; and (c) del(sub r) Z, radial reflectivity gradients (dB/km). These classification criteria were applied to tropical rain cloud systems near Darwin, Australia, and to winter convective rain cloud systems in Israel. Both sets of measurements were made with nearly identical networks of C-band radars and rain gauge networks. The results of the application of these objective classification criteria to several independently predetermined rain regimes in Darwin have shown that better organized rain systems have smaller del(sub r) Z and larger BBF. Similarly, smaller del(sub r)Z and larger BBF were also observed from maritime rain cloud systems, as compared to continental rain cloud systems with the same degree of organization. Continental rain cloud system, regardless of their degree of organization, have larger depths, as expressed by E(sub e). The rainfall analyses presented in this study are based exclusively on rain gauge measurements, while radar information was used only to classify the individual gauge measurements.

Description: Results of a simulation study on the effects of optically thick stratospheric sulfate aerosol layers on the backscattered ultraviolet radiation (buv) in the range 256-340 nm are presented. In general, the increased Mie scattering produced by the aerosols results in an enhancement of the buv radiation. The increase is approximately linear with optical depth and strongly depends on solar zenith angle and aerosol layer altitude in relation to the ozone maximum. The effect is greatest at those wavelenghts whose contribution functions peak in the vicinity of the densest part of the aerosol layer. The aerosol induced perturbation of the buv field affects the ozone profile retrieval from space measurements by the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Experiment (SBUV) experiment. In the tropical stratosphere, the retrieved ozone between 25 and 45 km is underestimated as a result of increased Mie scattering. On the other hand, an algorithm related effect causes the retrieved ozone below 25 km to be overestimated by an amount similar to the stratospheric deficit.

Description: Application of the window probability matching method to radar and rain gauge data that have been objectively classified into different rain types resulted in distinctly different Z(sub e)-R relationships for the various classifications. These classification parameters, in addition to the range from the radar, are (a) the horizontal radial reflectivity gradients (dB/km); (b) the cloud depth, as scaled by the effective efficiency; (c) the brightband fraction within the radar field window; and (d) the height of the freezing level. Combining physical parameters to identify the type of precipitation and statistical relations most appropriate to the precipitation types results in considerable improvement of both point and areal rainfall measurements. A limiting factor in the assessment of the improved accuracy is the inherent variance between the true rain intensity at the radar measured volume and the rain intensity at the mouth of the rain guage. Therefore, a very dense rain gauge network is required to validate most of the suggested realized improvement. A rather small sample size is required to achieve a stable Z(sub e)-R relationship (standard deviation of 15% of R for a given Z(sub e)) -- about 200 mm of rainfall accumulated in all guages combined for each classification.

Description: The joint airport weather studies (JAWS) project is discussed. The major objectives of the JAWS Project are a fundamental description of the phenomenon, a determination of the hazard potential and a definition of a protection and warning system, all of which are relative to low level wind shear. Aspects of the low level wind shear phenomenon. The principal focus, however, is the microburst. The microburst is fundamentally a rather simple atmospheric flow. It is a downdraft that, upon approaching the surface, spreads out horizontally, producing a diverging radial flow in all directions. For any direction that an aircraft flies through the microburst, it will first encounter increasing head winds; then the remnants of the downdraft; and then, increasing tail wind.

Description: A heavily instrumented F-106B aircraft was flown in thunderstorms to gather data for characterizing lightning at aircraft operating altitudes. Conventional weather finding techniques are supplemented with UHF lightning mapping radar to select the most active storm cells and the most likely altitude for obtaining direct lightning strikes to the airplane. One hundred seventy-six strikes were obtained in a 3 year period, mostly at an altitude of above 25,000 feet.

Description: A wind shear and vortex wake and their impact on aircraft were investigated. The systems and advice to help pilots, and rational scientific methods to assist in advising certification authorities and those interested in improving flight safety were developed. Wind Shear and Vortex Wakes are related, they are both invisible enemies of aircraft in the form of large disturbances in the atmosphere, both cause major accidents. Problems of building wakes at airports are is considered. Research on wind shear was initiated by the American FAA following the Boston, New York and Denver accidents to civil airliners. This resulted in: useful advice to pilots about wind shear; better attempts by the meteorologists at forecasting wind shear conditions; and useful ideas for wind shear measurement and warning systems. Three major research tasks are outstanding: (1) Worldwide measurements to give reliable estimates of probability and details of the forms of large wind shears; (2) Developments of real time wind shear measuring systems for ground or airborne use; and (3) Establishing relationships between measured wind shear and the potential hazard to an aircraft, or class of aircraft.

Description: Marked surface inversions occur most frequently in dry continental climates, where low atmospheric humidity allows heat transfer by long wave thermal radiation. In the northern latitudes, surface inversions reach their maximum intensity during the winter, when the incoming Sun's radiation is negligible and radiative cooling is dominant during the long nights. During winter, air mass boundaries are sharp, which causes formation of marked surface inversions. The existence of these inversions and sharp boundaries increase the risk of wind shear. The information should refer to marked inversions exceeding a temperature difference of 10 deg C up to 1000 feet. The need to determine the temperature range over which he information is operationally needed and the magnitude of the inversion required before a notification to pilots prior to departure is warranted are outlined.

Description: The Gust Gradient Program is a data intensive effort involving tripple Doppler radar, a surface weather station mesonet and other aircraft. The Joint Airport Weather Studies was utilized to gain additional data. The data were used to fill in the gap in turbulence modeling.

Description: The objective of the Generalized Exponential Markov (GEM) Program was to develop a weather forecast guidance system that would: predict between 0 to 6 hours all elements in the airways observations; respond instantly to the latest observed conditions of the surface weather; process these observations at local sites on minicomputing equipment; exceed the accuracy of current persistence predictions at the shortest prediction of one hour and beyond; exceed the accuracy of current forecast model output statistics inside eight hours; and be capable of making predictions at one location for all locations where weather information is available.

Description: Recommendations based on need, cost, and achievement of flight safety are offered, and the re-evaluation of weather parameters needed for safe landing operations that lead to reliable and consistent automated observation capabilities are considered.

Description: The primary responsibilities of the National Weather Service (NWS) are to: provide warnings of severe weather and flooding for the protection of life and property; provide public forecasts for land and adjacent ocean areas for planning and operation; and provide weather support for: production of food and fiber; management of water resources; production, distribution and use of energy; and efficient and safe air operations.

Description: The implementation of the National Airspace System (NAS) will improve safety services to aviation. These services include collision avoidance, improved landing systems and better weather data acquisition and dissemination. The program to improve the quality of weather information includes the following: Radar Remote Weather Display System; Flight Service Automation System; Automatic Weather Observation System; Center Weather Processor, and Next Generation Weather Radar Development.

Description: Rainfall characteristics using data from dense recording raingage networks is reviewed. Data from such networks have quantified temporal and spatial rainfall distributions, and have supplied specialized information about local and orographic effects. The natural variability, temporally and spatially, for annual, seasonal, monthly, and individual events is treated. Especially important are the spatial variations of precipitation as a function of synoptic type, precipitation type, amount, and duration. Results from dense raingage networks in Illinois, and some data from other climatic regions is also treated.

Description: A 10 channel scanning radiometer, built as a prototype for the coastal zone color scanner on the Nimbus 7 satellite, was flown on a high altitude aircraft during a Gymnodium breve bloom along the west coast of Florida. The remotely measured ocean color imagery shows what is probably the patchy structure of a G. breve bloom extending over a 60 km by 100 km area. This conclusion is based on visual inspection of bathymetry to infer bottom reflection trends and on a single growth truth measurement of B G. breve obtained the previous day. The image shows coherent blooms which extend scales up to 60 km in length.

Description: The snowmelt-runoff model developed for two small central European watersheds simulate daily streamflow on the 228 sq km Dinwoody Creek basin in Wyoming, using snowcover extent for LANDSAT and conventionally measured temperature and precipitation. For the six-month snowmelt seasons of 1976 and 1974, the simulated seasonal runoff volumes were within 5 and 1%, respectively, of the measured runoff. Also the daily fluctuations of discharge were simulated to a high degree by the model. Thus far the limiting basin size for applying the model has not been reached, and improvements can be expected if the hydrometeorological data can be obtained from a station inside the basin. LANDSAT provides an efficient way to obtain the critical snowcover input parameter required by the model.

Description: A large scale numerical time-dependent model of sea ice that takes into account the heat fluxes in and out of the ice, the seasonal occurrence of snow, and ice motions was used in an experiment to determine the response of the Arctic Ocean ice pack to a warming of the atmosphere. The degree of warming specified is that expected for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide with its associated greenhouse effect, a condition that could occur before the middle of the next century. The results of three 5-year simulations with a warmer atmosphere and varied boundary conditions were: (1) that in the face of a 5 K surface atmospheric temperature increase the ice pack disappeared completely in August and September but reformed in the central Arctic Ocean in mid fall; (2) that the simulations were moderately dependence on assumptions concerning cloud cover; and (3) that even when atmospheric temperature increases of 6-9 K were combined with an order-of-magnitude increase in the upward heat flux from the ocean, the ice still appeared in winter. It should be noted that a year-round ice-free Arctic Ocean has apparently not existed for a million years or more.

Description: During the summer of 1977, fire totaled 44 sq km of tundra vegetation according to measurements using LANDSAT imagery. Based on the experience gained from analysis of this fire using ground observations, satellite imagery, and topographic maps, it appears that natural drainages form effective fire breaks on the subdued relief of the Arctic coastal plain and northern foothills. It is confirmed that the intensity of the fire is related to vegetation type and to the moisture content of the organic rich soils.

Description: The geostationary and polar satellites comprising the current operational system are discussed. The data acquisition capabilities of both satellite types and their complementary functions are reviewed. The advanced very high resolution radiometer on the TIROS N satellites is particularly addressed along with the imaging and atmospheric sounding instrumentation aboard the GOES satellites. The dissemination of the satellite data to the prospective users is also discussed.

Description: Snow accumulation and depletion at specific locations can be monitored from space by observing related variations in microwave brightness temperatures. Using vertically and horizontally polarized brightness temperatures from the Nimbus 6 electrically scanning microwave radiometer, a discriminant function can be used to separate snow from no snow areas and map snowcovered area on a continental basis. For dry snow conditions on the Canadian high plains, significant relationships between snow depth or water equivalent and microwave brightness temperature were developed which could permit remote determination of these snow properties after acquisition of a wider range of data. The presence of melt water in the snowpack causes a marked increase in brightness temperature which can be used to predict snowpack priming and timing of runoff. As the resolutions of satellite microwave sensors improve the application of these results to snow hydrology problems should increase.

Description: Methods using snowcovered area to update seasonal forecasts as snowmelt progresses are also being used in quasi-operational situations. The input of snowcovered area to snowmelt models for short term perdictions was attempted in two ways; namely, the modification of existing hydrologic models and/or the use of models that were specifically designed to use snowcovered area. A daily snowmelt runoff model was used with LANDSAT data to simulate discharge on remote basins in the Wind River Mountains of Wyoming. Daily predicted and actual flows compare closely, and, summarized over the entire snowmelt season (April 1 - September 30), the average difference is only three percent. The model and snowcovered area data are currently being tested on additional watersheds to determine the method's transferability.

Description: Presumably caused by lightning, a large fire occurred due east of Point Lay several kilometers southwest of the Kokolik River, the farthest north a fire was ever fought by Bureau of Land Management personnel in Alaska. The progress and area extent of the fire were determined by analysis of LANDSAT MSS band 5 and 7 imagery. Low altitude observations from helicopter showed the fire burned a range of vegetation and relief types which included low polygonized and upland tussock tundras. The burned area appeared wetter on the surface than the unburned area, due to a lack of moisture absorbing organic matter and the possible release of moisture from the deeper thawed zone. Suggestions for future investigations of the effects of fire on tundra and permafrost terrains are discussed.

Description: Programs for the development and operation of meteorological satellites from the TIROS 1 satellite and the establishment of NASA through the 1960's are described. The technical problems confronted in the development of the early satellite systems are discussed in addition to issues in international involvement and program support. The TIROS and Nimbus series satellites are primarily addressed.

Description: By using the most complete available records of direct beam radiation and volcanic eruptions, an historical analysis of the role of the latter in modulating the former was made. A very simple fallout and dispersion model was applied to the historical chronology of explosive eruptions. The resulting time series explains about 77 percent of the radiation variance, as well as suggests that tropical and subpolar eruptions are more important than mid-latitude eruptions in their impact on the stratospheric aerosol optical depth. The simpler climatic models indicate that past hemispheric temperature can be stimulated very well with volcanic and CO2 inputs and suggest that climate forecasting will also require volcano forecasting. There is some evidence that this is possible some years in advance.

Description: Visible and infrared pictures from two Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Systems satellites, in circular orbits at about 19,000 nautical miles, are available continuously at approximately 30 minute intervals. Still pictures and film loops from this system vividly depict the events associated with the May 18, 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens. The initial explosion, shock wave, and visible horizontal dust distribution during the following week are readily apparent. Meteorological wind and height fields permit the inference of the vertical distribution of volcanic dust as well as explain the atmospheric behavior which caused the visible and nonvisible dust distribution.

Description: Examples of the use of geostationary satellites in meteorology are given. Studies of the rate of change of cumulus clouds and cloud systems and wind parameter determination from cloud motions are reviewed. Computer processed imagery products are also discussed.

Description: The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program is described with particular emphasis on the military applications of METSAT data. Satellite operational support, data processing and image quality requirements are discussed.

Description: A historical overview of the pioneer projects for the development of meteorological satellites is given. In addition, the parallel development of the responsible space agencies and panels is addressed. The Vanguard 2 satellite, the first Earth radiation experiment, and the vidicon equipped TIROS-1 satellite are discussed.

Description: A brief review of the effects of climate and weather on the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruptions and the subsequent dispersion of ash and gases and the reciprocal influences of the eruptions on climate and climatology is presented. The effects of mesoscale destruction of snow fields and vegetation, a revised mountain profile, and ash deposits are addressed along with impacts on hemispheric climate and disruption of normal climatological observations, in the areas directly affected by the explosions and ashfall. Environmental and economic consequences are also considered.

Description: As a user of devices and procedures for lightning protection, the author is asking the lightning research community for cookbook recipes to help him solve his problems. He is lamenting that realistic devices are scarce and that his mission does not allow him the time nor the wherewithal to bridge the gap between research and applications. A few case histories are presented. In return for their help he is offering researchers a key to lightning technology--the use of the Eastern Test Range and its extensive resources as a proving ground for their experiment in the lightning capital of the United States. A current example is given--a joint lightning characterization project to take place there. Typical resources are listed.

Description: Geographic coverage frequency and geographic shot density for a satellite borne Doppler lidar wind velocity measuring system are measured. The equations of motion of the light path on the ground were derived and a computer program devised to compute shot density and coverage frequency by latitude-longitude sections. The equations for the coverage boundaries were derived and a computer program developed to plot these boundaries, thus making it possible, after an application of a map coloring algorithm, to actually see the areas of multiple coverage. A theoretical cross-swath shot density function that gives close approximations in certain cases was also derived. This information should aid in the design of an efficient data-processing system for the Doppler lidar.

Description: A block diagram of the joint airport weather studies program is presented. Background leading to the development of the program is reviewed. Basic studies, aircraft performance, and detection and warning techniques used to develop fine scale structure of thunderstorm dynamics and kinematics in the vicinity of a major airport; effect of thunderstorm low level wind shear on aircraft performance; and development of real time testing of flow level wind shear detection and warning techniques and displays are described.

Description: The prototype regional observation and forecast system (PROFS) outputs are demonstrated, functional design specifications to be used to procure and implement operational systems are outlined. Advanced candidate technologies are evaluated as an integral part of the process that leads to these outputs. Evaluation insures that future weather service systems will contain the optimum mix of technologies to be most cost effective in reducing the annual losses and deaths that are directly attributed to severe weather.

Description: The icing environment at altitudes below 10,000 feet were studied. The following questions are asked, are: (1) existing aircraft certification criteria applicable; (2) too stringent on icing for helos; (3) based on accurate data; (4) appropriate for low (10,000 ft) altitudes? The research plan is outlined: review historical icing data, obtain new measurements, collect modern icing data from other groups, and recommend LWC, OAT, and MVD criteria for helicopters. Estimated accuracies and known sources of error are included. It is concluded that the net effect of possible sources of error of both signs is uncertain.

Description: Some operational and experimental products developed for aviation weather forecasting are briefly described. Experimental products include surface dew point, obstructions to vision, boundary layer model, computer-worded terminal forecasts, terminal alerting procedure, generalized equivalent Markov, and radar forecasts (0-2 hours).

Description: Doppler radar measurements of an intense wind shear occurance are discussed. The data suggest the presence of an incredibly strong low level jet outflow component of the microburst event, reaching 60 knots only 50 meters above the surface. Evidence also suggests that microbursts more typically occur in very weak thunderstorms that have hardly reached thunderstorm stage.

Description: The phenomenology of one class of strong thunderstorm downdrafts, microbursts, is described. Several aircraft accidents are analyzed in which a microburst was involved and a concept for an early warning wind shear sensor is presented.

Description: A method to improve clear air turbulence (CAT) forecasting by more effectively using the currently operational rawinsonde (RW) system is discussed. The method is called the Diagnostic Richardson Number Tendency (DRT) technique. The technique does not attempt to use the RW as a direct detector of the turbulent motion or even of the CAT mechanism structure but rather senses the synoptic scale centers of action which provide the energy to the CAT mechanism at the mesoscale level. The DRT algorithm is deterministic rather than statistical in nature, using the hydrodynamic equations (equations of motion) relevant to the synoptic scale. However, interpretation, by necessity, is probabilistic. What is most important with respect to its operational implementation is that this method uses the same input data as currently used by the operational National Meteorological Center prognostic models.

Description: A clear air turbulence (CAT) flight test to evaluate and test four different sensors in the detection and measuring of CAT and other meteorological targets that relate to turbulence is discussed. The primary types of CAT investigated were mountain wave CAT, jetstream CAT, CAT in cirrus clouds, and CAT in frontal wind shears, troughs, and ridges. The sensors included the CO2 pulsed Doppler lidar and three radiometers. One of the radiometers, at a frequency of 55.5 GHz, looked at atmospheric temperature structure. Another, at a frequency of 180.1 GHz, looked at atmospheric water vapor and investigated the feasibility of measuring at the microwave frequency the turbulence features seen in the infrared (IR) frequencies. An IR radiometer at 27 to 33 microns was the fourth sensor. This last device and the temperature structure radiometer worked well at all flight levels.

Description: The development of methods for the short range forecasting of visibility and ceiling conditions is discussed. Short range forecasts of one hour or less (5 or 30 minutes), immediately after a series of local observations can be expected to be more accurate and reliable than any forecast of more than one hour. These forecasts can be accomplished by the operational implementation of fully automated aviation observation systems and the utilization of statistical techniques such as the Generalized Equivalent Markov model.

Description: Requirements for an improved aviation weather system are defined and specifically include the need for (1) weather observations at all airports with instrument approaches, (2) more accurate and timely radar detection of weather elements hazardous to aviation, and (3) better methods of timely distribution of both pilot reports and ground weather data. The development of the discrete address beacon system data link, Doppler weather radar network, and various information processing techniques are described.

Description: The operational designs and performance capabilities of ground-based and airborne lightning detection systems are reviewed. The airborne Stormscope system is described and compared with onboard radar and the lightning detection and ranging system (LDAR). Two examples of difference-in-time-of-arrival systems for detecting spherics from discharges in electrified clouds are described: (1) The LDAR system and (2) Taylor's lightning mapping system. Next, an interferometric system adapted to lightning location is discussed. Finally, systems that are based upon crossed-loop magnetic direction finding principles but which have been refined and improved to accurately locate lightning discharges to ground are reviewed.

Description: The phenomenology of lightning and lightning measurement techniques are briefly examined with a particular reference to aeronautics. Developments made in airborne and satellite detection methods are reported. NASA research efforts are outlined which cover topics including in-situ measurements, design factors and protection, remote optical and radio frequency measurements, and space vehicle design.

Description: The ability of various types of remote probes to measure wind is discussed. Two important advantages over in-situ sensors are reported: (1) their ability to measure atmospheric parameters without disturbing the air flow; (2) their ability to scan through large volumes of the atmosphere with relative ease. Direct measurement sensors such as anemometers and wind vanes are categorized into two groups; active and passive. Acoustic radar, microwave radar, and lidar are included in the first group and the latter group is typified by the infrared radiometers.

Description: The problem of development of instrumentation for providing wind speed and direction information directly or indirectly to a pilot in the cockpit is considered. The pilots need for horizontal wind information at various stages of flight (i.e., at liftoff, in approach and departure corridors, and even in flight outside the terminal area) are emphasized.

Description: The basic reference material for gust design criteria are cited. The status of clear air turbulence meteorology (forecasting and detection) is discussed. The directions of further research technology is indicated.

Description: A list of icing instrumentation requirements are presented. Because of the Army's helicopter orientation, many of the suggestions are specific to rotary wing aircraft; however, some of the instrumentation are also suitable for general aviation aircraft.

Description: The types and usage categories of icing instrumentation are discussed. The state-of-the-art for the technology governing the use of icing instrumentation is reported with particular emphasis on ground based facilities for icing tests.

Description: The measurement of atmospheric turbulence is discussed in terms of a pilots viewpoint. Two areas of measurement are considered: frequency and severity of turbulence. Suggestions are given for helping the pilot solve the turbulence problem.

Description: An overview is given of the developmental status of aviation weather services. Particular attention is given to justifying the need for better, more reliable service. The accomplishments of several automatic weather stations are discussed.

Description: The dynamic and rapid growth of technology in the area of aviation meteorology research and development are described with emphasis on the measurement of hazardous weather phenomena. Aspects of both onboard instrumentation and ground based facilities are evaluated in terms of their effectiveness of in avoiding hazards due to atmospheric electricity and lightning. Methods of alleviating terminal are hazards such as fog, low visibility and ceilings are also described.

Description: Various aspects of aviation meteorology are discussed with respect to their relative effects on aircraft terminal operations. Existing data on turbulence and wind shear from aircraft and towers are summarized. The significance of obtaining more real time wind and temperature information is emphasized. The application and testing of various radiometer devices are also described. Airborne methods to indicate wind differences at flight altitude and at touchdown are reported.

Description: Three projects are suggested which could be done using the Doppler lidar. The first is a cooperative effort at BAO, the purpose of which is to check out instrumentation and contribute to boundary layer investigations at BAO. The second concerns unintended weather modification. Its purpose is to detect mechanisms by which regions of industry and urbanization modify weather. The cirrus cloud study proposes to characterize cirrus clouds by their lidar signal and to compare lidar and visually observed characteristics.

Description: General criteria for a flight test option are that: (1) there be a good opportunity for comparison with other measurement techniques; (2) the flow to be measured is of considerable scientific or practical interest; and (3) the airborne laser Doppler system is well suited to measure the required quantities. The requirement for comparison, i.e., ground truth, is particularly important because this is the first year of operation for the system. It is necessary to demonstrate that the system does actually measure the winds and compare the results with other methods to provide a check on the system error analysis. The uniqueness of the laser Doppler system precludes any direct comparison, but point measurements from tower mounted wind sensors and two dimensional fields obtained from radars with substantially different sampling volumes are quite useful.

Description: The experiment strives to improve understanding of the physics of convective precipitation. Major emphasis is placed on obtaining a good description of the whole convective precipitation system. A framework is presented within which single, significant, tractable problems are investigated.

Description: The objectives of the system are to provide the system operator with real time system performance check and to provide data recording of all SSMS data. Meteorologists are provided with real time indication of meteorological data measurements including aid for directing flight profiles in real time and aid for directing SSMS operations. A day-to-day feedback is provided to meteorologists, system operators, and flight crews for flight planning on subsequent flight tests days.

Description: The problem is to operate on two scalar fields to produce a vector field, to produce user products from the vector field, and to establish reliability of results. Data problems encountered include sparse measurements, irregular distribution, varying quality, imperfect orthogonality, aliasing due to sampling volume, and measurements not simultaneous. Desired algorithm characteristics, solution elements, and characteristics of the model are listed. The seven simulation elements, eight algorithm steps and the required user inputs are given.

Description: A group meeting was assembled to focus on the planning of specific experiments, to establish some priorities, identify interested scientists who would like to participate, establish any special requirements, make recommendations on data processing, and to prepare flight plan outlines. Since the number of convective storms in the CCOPE (Cooperative Convective Precipitation Experiment) field experiment area are limited to only a few days during the operational time period the flight plans must be designed with a hierarchy of abort experiments so that the easily identified and lowest probability events should take priority until their quota is filled.

Description: The development of pulsed and continuous wave Doppler lidars for atmospheric measurement is discussed. A description of how the lidar systems operate is presented. The scanning mode is also described.

Description: An interpretation of the Doppler lidar return is presented. Possible applications of the system to severe storm research are discussed. The present project schedule of the Doppler lidar system is outlined.

Description: Coherent Doppler lidar appears to hold great promise in contributing to the basic store of knowledge concerning flow field characteristics in the nonprecipitous regions surrounding severe storms. The Doppler lidar, through its ability to measure clear air returns, augments the conventional Doppler radar system, which is most useful in the precipitous regions of the storm. A brief description of the Doppler lidar severe storm measurement system is provided along with the technique to be used in performing the flow field measurements. The application of the lidar is addressed, and the planned measurement program is outlined.

Description: The Doppler lidar system is potentially a very powerful measurement system. Three areas concerning the system are discussed: (1) error analysis of the system to verify the results; (2) application of the system to agricultural burning in California central valley; and (3) oceanographic possibilities of the system.

Description: Doppler lidar measurements of phenomena associated with water clouds (such as aerosols) are discussed. The purpose of the measurements and details of executing the experiment are described.

Description: Four aspects of the Doppler lidar are discussed: (1) error analysis of the system; (2) design of the first field program; (3) potential areas of application; and (4) verification of Doppler lidar data by independent measurements.

Description: Areas of research which can be significantly aided by the Doppler lidar airborne system are described. The need for systematic development of the airborne Doppler lidar is discussed. The technology development associated with the systematic development of the system will have direct application to satellite systems for which the lidar also promises to be an effective instrument for atmospheric research.

Description: The potential application of the Doppler lidar measurements to the determination of material (e.g., water vapor) and energy budgets, momentum transports, etc., in the environment at all stages and in the development of convective clouds are discussed.

Description: The ability to map velocities over a large area on one side of the aircraft flight path offers a number of opportunities to elucidate scientific questions related to atmospheric dynamics. Several types of experiments which are possible are described.

Description: Calculation of eletric field vectors within and near an isolated thundercloud (which has a given volume charge distribution) is envisaged. The maximum field strength within the thundercloud is calculated. The effects of screening layers, both above and below the thundercloud may be investigated, as well time-dependent potential problem. The study can lead to a better understanding of the charge distributions in a thundercloud, which in turn may shed some light on the actual mechanism of charging of a thundercloud.

Description: Data of daily mean temperatures recorded at the Kennedy Center during the period of 1957-1977 were analyzed to forecast daily mean temperatures and their thirty-day moving averages for a period of ten to fifteen days in a given month. Since it is found that the standard deviation is linear in the mean, a logarithmic transformation of the data is used for finding an integrated moving average process IMA by the Box-Jenkins aproach. The first differences of the transformed data seem to fit a moving average model with parameter value 2, MA(2). The consideration of seasonality factor makes the fit worse.

Description: A time-continuous statistical method is presented for the four dimensional assimilation of remote sounding temperatures based on radiance measurements from polar orbiting satellites. This method is applied to DST 6 data from the NOAA 4 and Nimbus 6 satellites. The state of the atmosphere throughout the test period was determined using a varying amount of satellite data from the NOAA 4 satellite only, from Nimbus 6 only, and from both satellites together. The methods tested included different variations of the statistical method, as well as more traditional methods. It is concluded that satellite derived temperature data can have a modest, but statistically significant positive impact on numerical weather prediction in the two to three day range, and that this impact is highly sensitive to the quantity of data available and to the assimilation method used.

Description: Future developments in satellite meteorology are proposed and examined in the light of policy and funding changes.

Description: Atmospheric and surface fields produced from the TIROS N high resolution infrared sounder/microwave sounding unit data are discussed. The data were analyzed by direct physical inversion of the multispectral radiative transfer equation. Sea ice mapping and sea surface temperature determination are addressed.

Description: Some of the research opportunities that are available from geostationary satellite data, especially from MONEX during the Global Weather Experiment are described. In addition, the International Cloud Climatology Program is described and the use of satellite imagery in studying mesoscale convection complexes is discussed. Finally, information derived from satellite data on ocean winds is examined.

Description: The evidence that volcanic eruptions affect climate is reviewed. Single explosive volcanic eruptions cool the surface by about 0.3 C and warm the stratosphere by several degrees. Although these changes are of small magnitude, there have been several years in which these hemispheric average temperature changes were accompanied by severely abnormal weather. An example is 1816, the "year without summer" which followed the 1815 eruption of Tambora. In addition to statistical correlations between volcanoes and climate, a good theoretical understanding exists. The magnitude of the climatic changes anticipated following volcanic explosions agrees well with the observations. Volcanoes affect climate because volcanic particles in the atmosphere upset the balance between solar energy absorbed by the Earth and infrared energy emitted by the Earth. These interactions can be observed. The most important ejecta from volcanoes is not volcanic ash but sulfur dioxide which converts into sulfuric acid droplets in the stratosphere. For an eruption with its explosive magnitude, Mount St. Helens injected surprisingly little sulfur into the stratosphere. The amount of sulfuric acid formed is much smaller than that observed following significant eruptions and is too small to create major climatic shifts. However, the Mount St. Helens eruption has provided an opportunity to measure many properties of volcanic debris not previously measured and has therefore been of significant value in improving our knowledge of the relations between volcanic activity and climate.

Description: We have studied the implications of recent trends in the annual mean and the amplitude of the annual harmonic of ozone in the upper stratosphere from the 15 years of the combined data from the Nimbus-7 SBUV and the NOAA-11 SBUV/2 instruments. This was done in the context of the GSFC 2D model predictions of these trends which are based on plausible scenarios of anthropogenic Cly increase in the atmosphere. The comparison of the observed and model-estimated annual mean ozone trends show some similarity in their latitude and altitude characteristics. Both the model and data show a maximum ozone decrease of -6 to -10 % per decade at high latitudes in the upper stratosphere. However, there are also significant differences between the observed and computed trends which may be related to both the model uncertainty and the uncertainty in correcting for the long term instrument drift. The observations also suggest a decrease of 10-25 % per decade in the annual amplitude of ozone at 2 mb between 40 deg - 60 deg in both hemispheres, with a relatively larger interannual variability in the northern hemisphere. These values are in general agreement with the model predictions and thus provide additional support in favor of the chlorine induced changes in ozone in the upper stratosphere.

Description: BrO measured from the NASA ER-2 during Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition (AASE) II exhibited a mean value (for 20-minute averages) of 5.4 +/- 0.3 pptv, with a standard deviation of 3.1 pptv. Ratios of BrO to available inorganic bromine (Br(sub y)) show only slight increases in polar regions relative to midlatitudes. A comparison between observed latitudinal and diurnal variations of this same ratio and that calculated by photochemical models shows reasonable agreement in behavior, but significant discrepancies in magnitude. It is unclear whether this difference is due to errors in measurements, models or both.

Description: Measurements of stratospheric hydrofluoric acid (HF) have been made by the JPL MkIV interferometer during high-altitude balloon flights. Infrared solar absorption spectra were acquired near 35 deg N at altitudes between local tropopause and 38 km. Volume mixing ratio profiles of HF derived from 4 flights (1990-93), in conjunction with simultaneously observed N2O profiles, indicate an average rate of HF increase of (5.5 +/- 0.3)% per year, in agreement with time-dependent, two-dimensional model simulations (6% per year) and ATMOS measurements.

Description: Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements of lower stratospheric ClO during 1992-93 and 1993-94 Arctic winters are presented. Enhanced ClO in the 1992-93 winter was first observed in early December, and extensively during February when temperatures were continually low enough for polar stratospheric cloud (PSCs). Sporadic episodes of enhanced ClO were observed for most of the 1993-94 winter as minimum temperatures hovered near the PSC threshold, with largest ClO amounts occurring in early March after a sudden deep cooling in late February.

Description: The thermal-infrared (longwave) emission from a vegetated terrain is generally anisotropic, i.e., the emission temperature varies with the view direction. If a directional measurement of temperature is considered to be equal to the effective temperature of the hemispheric emission, then the estimate of the latter can be significantly in error. The view-direction (zenith angle theta(sub eq) at which the emission equivalence does hold is determined in our modeling study. In a two-temperature field-of-view (soil and plants), theta(sub eq) falls in a narrow range depending on plant density and canopy architecture. Theta(sub eq) does not depend on soil and (uniform) plant temperatures nor on their ratio, even though the pattern of emission vs. the view direction depends crucially on this ratio. For a sparse canopy represented as thin, vertical cylindrical stalks (or vertical blades uniformly distributed in azimuth) with horizontal facets, theta(sub eq) ranges from 48 to 53 deg depending on the optical density of the vertical elements alone. When plant elements are modeled as small spheres, theta(sub eq) lies between 53 to 57 deg (for the same values of the canopy optical density). Only for horizontal leaves (a truly planophile canopy) is the temperature measured from any direction equal to the temperature of the hemispheric emission. When the emission temperature changes with optical depth within the canopy at a specified rate, theta(sub eq) depends to some extent on that rate. For practically any sparsely vegetated surface, a directional measurement at the zenith angle of 50 deg offers an appropriate evaluation of the hemispheric emission, since the error in the estimate will, at most, only slightly exceed 1% (around 4 W/sq m). Estimates of the hemispheric emission through a nadir measurement, on the other hand, can be in error in some cases by about 10%, i.e., on the order of 40 W/sq m.

Description: Numerical simulation experiments were conducted to delineate the influence of in situ deforestation data on episodic rainfall by comparing two ensembles of five 5-day integrations performed with a recent version of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres General Circulation Model (GCM) that has a simple biosphere model (SiB). The first set, called control cases, used the standard SiB vegetation cover (comprising 12 biomes) and assumed a fully forested Amazonia, while the second set, called deforestation cases, distinguished the partially deforested regions of Amazonia as savanna. Except for this difference, all other initial and prescribed boundary conditions were kept identical in both sets of integrations. The differential analyses of these five cases show the following local effects of deforestation. (1) A discernible decrease in evapotranspiration of about 0.80 mm/d (roughly 18%) that is quite robust in the averages for 1-, 2-, and 5-day forecasts. (2) A decrease in precipitation of about 1.18 mm/d (roughly 8%) that begins to emerge even in 1-2 day averages and exhibits complex evolution that extends downstream with the winds. (3) A significant decrease in the surface drag force (as a consequence of reduced surface roughness of deforested regions) that, in turn, affects the dynamical structure of moisture convergence and circulation. The surface winds increase significantly during the first day, and thereafter the increase is well maintained even in the 2- and 5-day averages.

Description: A steady-state scheme for data assimilation in the context of a single, short period (relative to a day), sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting satellite is examined. If the satellite takes observations continuously, the gains, which are the weights for blending observations and predictions together, are steady in time. For a linear system forced by random noise, the optimal steady-state gains (Wiener gains) are equivalent to those of a Kalman filter. Computing the Kalman gains increases the computational cost of the model by a large factor, but computing the Wiener gains does not. The latter are computed by iteration using prior estimates of the gains to assimilate simulated observations of one run of the model, termed 'truth' into another run termed 'prediction'. At each stage, the prediction errors form the basis for the next estimate of the gains. Steady state is achieved after three or four iterations. Further simplification is achieved by making the gains depend on longitudinal distance from the observation point, not on absolute longitude. For a single-layer primitive equation model, the scheme works well even if only the mass field is observed but not the velocity field. Although the scheme was developed for Mars Observer, it should be applicable to data retrieved from Earth atmosphere satellites, for example, UARS.

Description: Brightness temperature difference (BTD) values are calculated for selected Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-6) channels (3.9, 12.7 micrometer) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer channels (3.7, 12.0 micrometer). Daytime and nighttime discrimination of particle size information is possible given the infrared cloud extinction optical depth and the BTD value. BTD values are presented and compared for cirrus clouds composed of equivalent ice spheres (volume, surface area) versus randomly oriented hexagonal ice crystals. The effect of the hexagonal ice crystals is to increase the magnitude of the BTD values calculated relative to equivalent ice sphere (volume, surface area) BTDs. Equivalent spheres (volume or surface area) do not do a very good job of modeling hexagonal ice crystal effects on BTDs; however, the use of composite spheres improves the simulation and offers interesting prospects. Careful consideration of the number of Legendre polynomial coefficients used to fit the scattering phase functions is crucial to realistic modeling of cirrus BTDs. Surface and view-angle effects are incorporated to provide more realistic simulation.

Description: An examination and analysis of video images of lightning, captured by the payload bay TV cameras of the space shuttle, provided a variety of examples of lightning in the stratosphere above thunderstorms. These images were obtained on several recent shuttle flights while conducting the Mesoscale Lightning Experiment (MLE). The images of stratospheric lightning illustrate the variety of filamentary and broad vertical discharges in the stratosphere that may accompany a lightning flash. A typical event is imaged as a single or multiple filament extending 30 to 40 km above a thunderstorm that is illuminated by a series of lightning strokes. Examples are found in temperate and tropical areas, over the oceans, and over the land.

Description: The collective character of carbon exchanges between the atmosphere and other pools is partially revealed by comparing the record of CO2 concentration beginning in 1958 with estimates of the releases from fossil fuels during this period. In analyzing the secular increase in CO2 concentration induced by fossil fuel use, the atmosphere is generally treated as a single well-mixed reservoir; however, to study finer structure in the CO2 records, the influence of atmospheric circulation must be more carefully considered. The rate of carbon uptake by the oceans, the primary sink for fossil fuel CO2, is assessed more reliably than influences on the atmosphere due to interactions with other pools. Models of the global carbon cycle are being substantially refined while data that reflect the response of the cycle to fossil fuel use and other perturbations are being extended.

Description: A statistical correlation technique is applied to the retrieval of vertical moisture profiles under clear-sky conditions from down-looking radiometric measurements of atmospheric radiation at microwave wavelengths. For a given set of channels, the method selects the optimum radiometric channels for estimating water vapor at specific pressure levels between the surface and 300 mb. The water vapor mixing ratio at these pressure levels is then calculated from a linear combination of the selected channel brightness temperatures. To test its validity the algorithm was applied, in a numerical experiment, to fifty independent tropical radiosondes. The rms absolute deviation of the estimated moisture profiles from the actual profiles was comparable to that obtained using an iterative retrieval method reported earlier. The statistical method, however, requires several orders of magnitude less computer time than the iterative method; it is suitable for high speed processing of large amounts of data.

Description: The Andre et al. (1976, 1978) third-order closure model, in which the time rate of change terms, the relaxation and rapid effects for pressure-related terms, and the clipping approximation are used along with the quasi-normal closure, is invoked in the study of turbulence in a cloudy layer that is radiatively cooled from above. A spurious oscillation whose greatest amplitude lies near the inversion is shown by analysis to arise from the mean gradient and buoyancy terms of the triple-moment equations. An attempt is made to damp the oscillation through the introduction of diffusion terms into the triple-moment equations. The results obtained are noted to be sensitive to the ad hoc eddy coefficient applied in the third-moment equations.

Description: Space-time mapping of VHF sources from four severe storms on June 19, 1980 reveals that lightning processes for cloud-to-ground (CG) and large intracloud (IC) flashes are confined to an altitude below about 10 km and closely associated with the central regions of high reflectivity. Another class of IC flashes produces a splattering of sources within the storms' main electrically active volumes and also within the large divergent wind canopy aloft. There is no apparent temporal association between the small high altitude IC flashes that occur almost continuously and the large IC and CG flashes that occur sporadically in the lower portions of storms.

Description: A variational principle for time dependent diffusion problems is presented and is demonstrated by applying it to simple seasonal climate models. Two cases are treated. The first, a North-Coakley-type model with constant properties, is used as a tutorial example for the application of the technique. For the second case, heat capacity and thermal conductivity are considered to be latitude dependent in order to treat the effects of land/ocean distribution on the seasonal temperature distribution over the earth. The variational equations are derived and approximate analytical solutions are developed which delineate the influences of the physical asymmetries of the hemispheres in producing an asymmetric annual cycle.