ALBERT

Notes: A method of ‘backward deduction’ is used to analyse the decisions of a firm, setting price and quantity before demand observations are made, with the option to adjust price at a cost after demand is observed. It is shown for such a firm that the events of (1) downward price rigidity; (2) overproduction; and (3) a high degree of monopoly power are closely related. The paper distinguishes itself from the previous literature on costly price adjustment in its treatment of disequilibrium situations and focus on monopoly power in relation to price rigidity. The main results are obtained for a linear demand curve and a uniform demand distribution.

Notes: This paper considers taxation of firms in oligopolistic equilibrium. It shows that sales taxes which maximise government revenues will be differential and progressive when costs vary between firms.

Notes: . This paper presents a set of Miyazawa interrelational multipliers, which measure how direct changes in the income of each income bracket result in indirect and induced income changes in all other brackets. The multipliers have been calculated for a 9-by-9 pairing of income brackets for West Virginia in 1982. Their estimation is based on a combination of survey and nonsurvey data in three forms: a 1982 West Virginia input-output table, a multisector income-distribution matrix, and an income disaggregated consumption matrix. The paper illustrates the usefulness of the multipliers by showing how they provide insight into the viability of trickle-down theory and the incidence of regional development policy.

Notes: . Boyce et al. (1981, 1983) have proposed and implementd the use of observed entropy levels to estimate the travel-cost coefficient in mathematical programming models of network equilibrium which involve logit route-choice probabilities. This so-called “dispersion-constrained” model is shown to give severely biased and statistically inefficient underestimates. A natural counterpart, the entropy-maximizing model, is proposed here and overestimates the travel-cost coefficient with much lower bias and much higher statistical efficiency. Even though the two models are mathematically homeomorphic in some respects, they have vastly different statistical properties. It follows that the use of observed entropy levels is undesirable and should be avoided, since maximizing entropy provides an unambiguously superior alternative.

Notes: . This paper introduces the household interactive variable input-output (HIVIO) model to measure the effect of cost variation on industrial outputs. The model produces a variety of cost elasticities that separate out impacts on industrial prices, imports, and outputs, with “own” and “cross” elasticity components. Like the conventional input-output multipliers, these cost elasticities can be useful parameters to evaluate the substituting behavior of firms and consumers. By using the 1980 Korean input-output transactions table, we find the wage and import price effects on industrial prices, outputs, and import demands.

Notes: This paper analyzes the effect of city size and industry size on urban productivity in the food processing industry. Some formulations suggest productivity is associated with industry size rather than city size. However, when allowance is made for the tendency of food processing to locate near relevant raw materials and for regional dummies, there is no support for industry scale economies. Agglomeration effects, associated with city size, do exist. The central estimates are based on the Chan-Mountain version of the translog production function. The results provide information on some facets of the appropriate balance between industrial and agricultural production.

Notes: Book Review in This Article: Urban Econometrics: Model Development and Empirical Results, by James B. Kau, C. F. Lee, and C. R. Sirmans. Spatial Analysis and Location-Allocation Models, by Avijit Ghosh and Gerard Rushton (eds.). Regional Aspects of Confederation, by John Whalley and Irene Trela. Disparities and Interregional Adjustment, by Kenneth Norrie (ed.). High Tech America, by Ann Markusen, Peter Hall, and Amy Glasmeier. Growing the Next Silicon Valley, by Roger Miller and Marcel Cote. Small and Intermediate Urban Centers: Their Role in National and Regional Development in the Third World, by Jorge E. Hardoy and David Satterthwaite (eds). Bourgeois Utopias: The Rise and Fall of Suburbia, by Robert Fishman. New Towns in East and South-east Asia, by David R. Phillips and Anthony G. O. Yeh (eds). Social Stress in the United States: Links to Regional Patterns in Crime and Illness, by Arnold S. Linsky and Murray A. Straus.

Notes: . This paper uses a two-stage hedonic wage approach to derive the benefits from improvement of five cultural amenities. It is argued that the hedonic approach permits valuation of both private and local public aspects of cultural goods since access to the amenity is an essential input in the production of the final service flow. Empirical estimates of willingness to pay suggest price and income elasticities are approximately unity. Lower-bound estimates of marginal benefits for a representative city range from $0.85 million for an additional theater to $57.9 million for an additional zoo facility.

Notes: . This paper develops a model to examine the economic interaction between central places and their hinterlands. The model allows interindustry linkages and upward trade flows in an urban hierarchy system. Trade balance equilibrium between hierarchical levels is established by direct mutual interlevel trade, rather than by indirect trade via the rural sector. The economic base multipliers generally increase with city size but occasionally they could be smaller than those of lower places. A continuous urban hierarchy is formed due to their relative location within the system, not to unspecified randomness.

Notes: . Discrete-choice theory models, and more specifically the logit model, have been applied widely recently in analyzing migration patterns in a zonal system. We argue that spatial effects and more specifically the relative location of zones are not taken into account in such analyses. We, therefore, introduce a measure of spatial structure and advocate its usage as a predictor of migration in such models. In an example of intrametropolitan migration in Toronto, we demonstrate that this variable is not only significant but also it improves the performance of all the other variables with the greatest impact on the distance between zones. In addition, inclusion of this variable improves the overall performance of the model in terms of residuals.

Notes: . This paper examines colluding, oligopolistic firms in a linear market. By assuming that rivals do not compete for consumers at their market boundaries, it is shown that an equilibrium exists without adopting a convex transportation cost function. Two price profiles are derived. The first describes firm prices in the absence of threatened entry. The second details profit-maximizing prices which forestall entrants. Given infinite relocation costs, threatened entry leads to price adjustments by the incumbent firms.

Notes: All previous theory and research have led to the expectation that the density of service establishments will be proportional to the 2/3 power of the density of the population served by them. Study of the distribution of over 400 nongovernmental establishments refutes this expectation for such cases. A previous derivation from time minimization theory is reformulated to encompass these new findings.

Notes: This paper investigates the implication of production-technology uncertainty for the exclusion theorem. The paper presents the result that the risk-averse firm facing production technology uncertainty prefers an intermediate location to avoid risk under certain conditions. The firm chooses an intermediate location (over a corner location) particularly if its degree of risk aversion overwhelms the inherent convexity of profit with respect to location. The latter depends, in turn, on the structure of production technology characterized by the elasticity of substitution and returns to scale parameters.

Notes: The mean and the median are both measures of centrality. In one dimension, the median minimizes the average absolute distance from a facility to a set of customers {xi}, and the mean minimizes the average squared distance. In two dimensions, the median minimizes the average rectangular distance, and the mean minimizes the average squared distance. This paper investigates the “location penalty” when a nonoptimal location is substituted for the optimal location. In one dimension, the average absolute distance at the mean is never more than twice the average absolute distance at the median. Surprisingly, this happens when the median and mean are close together. In two dimensions, the ratio of the average Euclidean distance at the median to the average Euclidean distance at the optimum is never more than 〈inlineGraphic alt="inline image" href="urn:x-wiley:00224146:JORS65:JORS_65_mu1" location="equation/JORS_65_mu1.gif" extraInfo="missing"/〉. However, this upper bound depends on an unlikely scenario with just two customers. With three equal-sized customers, this ratio is never more than 1.12. However, if the triangle formed by the customers is rotated relative to the rectangular grid, the ratio never exceeds 1.028.

Notes: The structure of intertemporal patterns of household migration responses is empirically examined. The findings indicate that migration decisions are often related to changes in household conditions in both prior as well as following periods, are dependent on the duration of household status characteristics (e.g., marital status) and not just their presence at any point in time, and finally that migration response in any particular period very often differs among households as a result of differences in the underlying structure of migration frequency behavior. These findings suggest that inferences based on comparisons of household migration responses over only a single period of time are incomplete, possibly to the point of being misleading.

Notes: This paper analyzes the determination of industry structure in a product market, given a monopolistic factor market. The characteristics of industry structure examined include the number of firms, their pricing and locational pattern.It is shown how a monopolistic factor owner–a landowner–structures the product market in order to extract maximum rent. Asymmetry characterizes the resulting locational pattern. All the product market firms charge different prices in equilibrium. No matter how large the number of firms competing in the product market, the landowner can always guarantee himself positive profits.The paper concludes with a discussion of possible applications and tests of the theory.

Notes: Some prior findings on spatial price discrimination are extended. Under certain spatially defined market conditions, discriminatory pricing is known to yield greater output than does nondiscriminatory f.o.b. mill pricing. However, this seemingly surprising result is based on the form of the basic demand function which is relatively less convex than a certain standard curve. The present paper makes this prior result more general by permitting the assumed basic demand to be relatively more convex.

Notes: Book Review in this Article: Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics. Volume II: Urban Economics, Edwin S. Mills (ed.).Location Theory, by Jean Jaskold Gabszewicz, Jacques-François Thisse, Masahisa Fujita, and Urs Schweizer.Modeling in Urban and Regional Economics, by Alex Anas.Spatial Autocorrelation: A Primer, by Daniel A. Griffith.Spatial Autocorrelation, by John Odland.Information Theory: Structural Models for Qualitative Data, by Klaus Krippendorff.Population Change and the Economy: Social Science Theories and Models, by Andrew M. Isserman (ed.).Canada's Resource Industries and Water Export Policy, by John Whalley.The State of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo: A Study of Water Resource Issues Along the Texas/Mexico Border, by David J. Eaton and John Michael Andersen.Economic Development in the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area, by Anita A. Summers and Thomas F. Luce.Natural Resource Policy and Income Distribution, by Adam Rose, Brandt Stevens, and Greg Davis.The Future of Winter Cities, by Gary Gappert (ed.).Capital, the State and Regional Development, by M. F. Dunford.Regional Impact of Community Policies in Europe by Willem Molle and Riccardo Cappellin (eds.).Informatics and Regional Development by Peter Nijkamp and Maria Giaoutzi (eds.).

Notes: . In a polycentric urban context, several urban nodes may exert an influence over land rents. Where this is the case, regression analysis to explain land rents should employ distance variables corresponding to each of the urban nodes. However, these distance measures may be highly intercorrelated, thereby posing a problem of “spatial multicollinearity.”This paper demonstrates that problems arising from spatial multicollinearity can be avoided or substantially lessened by carefully selecting the geographic domain from which observations are drawn.

Notes: . This paper presents a two-sector dynamic model of regional population change. The model contains a migration equation, an earnings equation, and an amenity equation for each region. In the context of this model, migration is seen as a disequilibrium process through which the regional populations move towards equilibrium positions. Migration occurs when one region is perceived to be superior to the other on the basis of its earnings and amenity levels. Equilibrium is achieved when population movements between the regions eliminate any differences in their relative attractiveness. A comparative-static analysis of the model is presented to analyze the effects of policy changes and exogenous shocks on the distribution of population among the regions. We find that positive shocks to regional earnings and to amenity tend to increase the population of a region. However the amenity shocks generate two opposing effects on regional population, with stability of the model requiring that the expansionary effect of the amenity shock outweigh the contractionary effect.

Notes: . The least upper bound to the overall percentage error resulting from the omission of interregional feedbacks in input-output analysis is defined. This limiting value is the most informative of all upper bounds. A procedure for its computation is outlined and a number of experiments, using U.S. data, are discussed.

Notes: . The distribution of above-median income groups can be described accurately by OLS regression of the Pareto distribution. The excellent fit of log-linear regression has led some researchers to conclude that extrapolated income measures in the open end of the distribution are reliable. The analysis of income distribution data for metropolitan areas reveals: (1) that OLS tends to consistently overestimate the number of families in the tail, and (2) that the overestimation can have serious implications for hypothesis testing.

Notes: The supply-driven input-output model is, in all its aspects, the complete reverse of the traditional, demand-driven input-output model. Several authors have used it to indicate the strength of the industrial forward linkages in the economy at hand. Others have used it to indicate the impact of specific supply shortages on output levels. Finally, it has been used as a general description and projection vehicle for entire economies that are thought of as being supply-constrained, such as centrally planned economies.This paper critically reviews this literature and concludes that most of these applications suffer from more or less severe theoretical flaws. It is argued that using the supply-driven model as a descriptive device to indicate the strength of forward linkages is justified. In the case of impact studies, straightforward use of the model is criticized and a more careful estimation procedure is suggested. For the purpose of a general description of a supply-driven economy, a dynamic optimization model is proposed to replace the theoretically implausible, supply-driven input-output model.

Notes: This paper examines the role of the structure of transportation rates in the Weber-Moses triangle model. It shows that, in Zeigler's analysis, the appearance of the price elasticities of demand for inputs actually vanish by a simple application of the envelope theorem. Applying comparative statics analysis, we show when transportation rates are a function of quantity and distance, the assumptions that the production function is homogeneous of degree one and the transportation rates elasticities with respect to quantity and distance are constant are not sufficient to insure that the optimum location is independent of the level of output. This result is significantly different from that obtained by either Miller and Jensen or Zeigler.

Notes: Attention is initially focused on the principal characteristics of a hierarchical urban system. The structure of trade flows among the various levels of the hierarchy is outlined, and consideration is then given to nontrade flows, these comprising government transfers and capital movements, as well as the associated property-payment flows. An equilibrium model is presented which is concerned with income at each level of the hierarchy. The balance-of-payments implications of the model are explored, and there is a discussion of the manner in which a trade imbalance at a particular level can be sustained in equilibrium.

Notes: This paper introduces a new class of supply-side multiregional input-output (MRIO) models and provides the necessary and sufficient conditions on the regional trade matrices that ensure that a generalized supply-side model will be convergent. The paper also introduces a new version of the row coefficient model, conceived as the “mirror image” of the Chenery-Moses demand-side column coefficient MRIO model. Given that the conventional supply-side input-output model has been shown to perform equally as well as the demand side model in forecasting exercises, the supply-side MRIO model is expected to be of value for policy and planning purposes. Moreover, this model is of potential theoretical value for a broad synthesis of demand-side and supply-side MRIO models.

Notes: This paper introduces a new mathematical technique to describe population density functions. Two length scales, which characterize the variation of these density functions within a region, are identified. A differential equation is derived and asymptotic solutions obtained. Two specific techniques, the method of matched asymptotic expansions and the method of multiple scales, are introduced and illustrated by application to population densities at both the metropolitan and regional levels.

Notes: This paper explores theories of population growth, and implied economic growth, among the major U.S. metro areas and regions. One set of theoretical arguments favor the growth of large cities, while an alternative set of arguments favor the growth of the smaller urban areas. Still another set of arguments combine economic space and urban size in the concept of regional growth centers as the engines of regional growth. Granger causality tests are applied to determine the role of urban size or growth centres as engines of regional growth. The test results indicate no causal relationship exists.

Notes: This paper exploits the two-stage approach and the envelope theorem to examine the role of the Moses-Predhol pull in the cost-minimizing location theory of the firm. It shows that the two-stage approach introduces the Moses-Predohl pull into the first-order conditions. The Moses-Predohl pull is shown to be equal to zero through the envelope theorem. These results show why the assertions of Bossert and Buhl (1986) concerning Kusumoto (1984,1985) are incorrect.

Notes: . This paper investigates the potential offered by the model of spatial competition for the study of central place theory. We consider n firms selling m substitutable or complementary goods to a continuum of consumers evenly distributed along a linear segment. Consumers have the same income and the same utility function which is quadratic in the goods supplied by the firms and linear in the numeraire. The main results are as follows. (1) In any location equilibrium in which all goods are consumed everywhere, each good supplied by a single firm is sold at the market center. In Christaller's terminology, this means that when the exhaustive principle holds in equilibrium, highest-order goods are made available at the center. (2) When all goods (excluding the numéraire) are complements to each other and each good is sold by a single firm, there always exists an equilibrium in which all the firms locate coincidentally. (3) If the stores selling a given good are under the control of a single owner then, in any equilibrium for which the exhaustive principle holds, the stores are located in a way such that the total transport cost (borne by consumers) is minimized.

Notes: . This paper incorporates an exogenous taxing and service-providing public sector into a dynamic residential land-use model in order to examine how local-government fiscal policies alter the pace and pattern of residential development. The model is used to derive the comparative-dynamic responses to variations in the income, sales, and property taxes and public-service time paths. The results show how tax and expenditure effects systematically depend upon the anticipated relative growth rates in rents to alternative uses and vary across locations within a given urban area as well as across urban areas themselves.

Notes: . The role of service industries in the regional growth process has been debated for decades. Although the importance of services in providing an essential framework for the development of exports has long been acknowledged, their ability to initiate growth has never been generally accepted. In this paper the change in composition of exports from Canada's four western provinces between 1974 and 1979 is analyzed. It was observed that service exports increased more rapidly than exports of goods on both a direct and a direct-plus-indirect basis in 88 percent of comparisons. In absolute terms, the gain in service exports was equal to 89 percent of that for goods exports.

Notes: . Previous work has developed a method for studying noninfinitesimal operational units, called “plantations,” with the Thüen model. In that model, increasing returns to scale generate large operational units, but the potential market power conferred by the scale economies is sidestepped as an issue. The present work introduces finite supply elasticities and examines their locational impacts. The profit-maximizing monopsonistic plantation is smaller, and the shipment distance for its processed output is shorter, than for a comparable competitive plantation. The present approach does not involve spatial competition strategies.

Notes: Book reviews in this article:Analytical Behavioural Geography by Reginald G. Golledge and Robert J. Stimson.Managing Land-Use Conflicts: Case Studies in Special Area Management Planning, by David J. Brower and Daniel s. Carol (eds.).Filling Up America: An Economic-Demographic Model of Population Growth and Distribution in the Nineteenth-Century United States, by Morton Owen Schapiro.Economic-Ecological Modeling, by L. C. Braat and W. F. J. van Lierop (eds.).Invisible Factors in Local Economic Development, by Peter B. Doeringer, David G. Terkla, and Gregory C. Topakian.

Notes: The origins and development of the network equilibrium problem are traced and interrelated. Two principal formulations are considered the network equilibrium problem with variable travel demand, and the combined model of trip distribution and traffic assignment. The relation of these models to subsequent developments concerning mode choice, residential location, estimation of origin-destination tables from link flows and stochastic route choice are then reviewed.

Notes: . Within the framework of an existing hierarchy of shopping centers, Voronoi diagrams at each level of the hierarchy are used to define infringement on existing centers by new entrants. We distinguish four intensities of infringement—that is, four categorizations of when existing centers face new competition—and label shopping centers accordingly. Our aim is to determine empirically which type of new competition is best explained by various attributes of the incumbent centers. To accomplish this, logit analysis is used to relate the above labels to market-area population, store turnover, age, and hierarchical level of each shopping center in Edmonton, Alberta.

Notes: . This paper proposes a procedure with which sectoral production functions can be aggregated to metropolitan production functions in the presence of external economies of scale. The procedure specifies the production functions as part of general equilibrium models. Consistency of a one-sector and a two-sector general equilibrium model is defined in terms of equality of the distribution of a nation's population over its metropolitan areas in autarky.

Notes: Analytical evidence is presented confirming variations in the shape of the free spatial demand function under different market conditions. For some simple spatial configurations of consumers, the transformation from convexity to concavity may be conveniently observed using graphical methods. The key criteria for concavity of the free spatial demand function are certain combinations of concave consumer demand, nonuniform consumer density, and/or nonlinear transportation costs. Although findings are confined to free spatial demand, similar variations may be expected to hold for the competitive case.

Notes: An empirical test of the effects of exogenous shocks upon a region's population size is conducted in the framework of an equilibrium locational model. The model emphasizes the separation of endogenous from exogenous factors, a point omitted in most empirical studies of aggregate migration. Exogenous changes are manifested in the local relative cost of living and the local relative unemployment rate. Hypotheses are tested using a national sample of youth, in addition to census, data. Surprisingly, a simple measure of the size of shock to a regional economy has the greatest explanatory power compared to more sophisticated measures based on prior business cycles.

Notes: If Leontief systems are considered to be descriptions of optimizing behavior and if their technical coefficients are derived from accounting data, then the constancy of the input-output coefficients is equivalent to assuming a generalized Cobb-Douglas production function and profit maximization.

Notes: Book Review in this Article: Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, Volume I, Regional Economics, by Peter Nijkamp (ed.). On Appraising the Performance of an Economic System, Rutledge Vining. Integrated Analysis of Regional Systems, P.W.J. Batey and M. Madden (eds.). A Vigorous Spirit of Enterprise: Merchants and Economic Development in Revolutionary Philadelphia, by Thomas Doerflinger. Regional Dynamics: Studies in Adjustment Theory, Gordon L. Clark, Meric S. Gertler, and John Whiteman. Long Waves of Regional Development, by Michael Marshall.

Notes: The paper consists of a theoretical discussion of the circumstances justifying the use of R&D to increase the productivity of a firm's manufacturing capability. There are three possibilities: Increase the productivity of existing capacity; re-equip with purchased existing best-practice technology; or use R&D to develop new technology.The choice depends on which of the four following situations exist: 1) When the productivity of existing capacity is well below its potential and is also well below that of the industry's best-practice; in this case the right strategy is first to bring actual productivity up to potential, and then to consider the purchase of best-practice. 2) When productivity is well up to potential but is well below best practice; the advice is then to purchase best-practice. 3) When existing capacity is already best-practice but productivity is well below capacity; in this case productivity of existing plant should be increased. 4) When existing capacity is bestpractice and productivity is near the maximum; then and only then is R&D to develop new technology justified.The paper concludes with a brief account of the process to be undergone between the establishment of a case for R&D using the above criteria and, if R&D is undertaken and completed, the retrospective review of its outcome.

Notes: The mutual support of a model of the research process and the skills needed in successful teams is described and the practical consequences of this juxtaposition are outlined. These range from recruitment policies on the one hand to the diagnosis and solution of team problems on the other. The paper concludes with brief references to other relevant papers.

Notes: In this paper, we propose a model of Information Technology (IT) impacts on innovation. We do not intend to generalize a specific model of innovation. Rather, the objective here is to explain how IT can facilitate innovation in a work group. Review of literature suggests that innovative ability of a work group is dependent on the capabilities of the individuals/group, the structure of the work group or organization, and the group/organizational environments. To explore this conceptual model, data were collected from 136 users who used well-established information systems. The data supported that IT enhanced innovation significantly by augmenting individual/group capabilities through: 1) motivation support, 2) resource support, and 3) information support. Motivation support was shown to be the most important contributor of innovation. Group interaction variables, standardization, decentralization, and specialization, were shown to be positively related to innovation. However, the effect of group interaction was secondary in nature; the independent contributions to innovation of group interaction variables, controlling for other factors, were not significant. In addition, the data provided support that innovation was positively related to demand pull via motivation and resource support, and to technology push via information support.

Notes: The author's aim was to elicit the factors that determine the success or failure of corporate innovations in the European semi-conductor and pharmaceutical industries. To do this he divided firms into two groups, the members of one having a good innovation record (‘prospectors’) and of the other a poor one (‘would-be innovators’). Members of both groups spent heavily on R&D. The author used as his data-base a combination of publicly available data, interviews and questionnaires administered to staff.Among the success factors identified are the following: Concentrate innovation projects and related R&D into fairly restricted channels; minimise diversification; work to explicit but not too detailed top management guidelines for innovation activity; define clear and realistic goals; minimise red-tape and formality and be willing to revise plans frequently; ensure a close relationship between R&D, Marketing and Manufacturing, but allow R&D to maintain a long-range perspective; provide a stimulating, supportive and well-supervised working environment.

Notes: New technologies and the transfer, exchange and pooling of existing technologies are impacting, at the strategic level. Research on joint activities has emphasised the industry sectoral differences and the need for more in-depth analysis at these levels. This study of eleven companies' joint activities with government research institutes, university medical schools and other companies, in developing thirty-four medical equipment innovations, details the mechanisms by which the expected added value from joint activities is realised.The manufacturers gained added value by:1. Appropriating user knowledge to them-selves2. Transferring costs to the users3. Increasing private returns through co-operation with the user in gaining market penetration4. Diffusion of costs and the capturing of benefits through intermediary-manufactureruser interactions5. The coupling of ‘outside product champions’ to ‘inside product champions’.

Notes: This paper attempts to investigate an empirical linkage between technological innovation and productivity in two industries in the United States. During the period 1967—82, the chemical and textile industries experienced different rates of productivity growth. In spite of stiff competition from foreign manufacturers, American textile firms maintained a steady growth in productivity. This industry benefitted from major technological innovations occurring in industries supplying to it. The chemical industry faced crisis due to sudden changes in petroleum prices. Changes in regulatory requirements also imposed a different set of constraints on the chemical industry. Rate of innovation decreased quite severely in this industry during this time period.Innovation indicators were developed by obtaining data on new product/process announcements in the technical literature. Panels of technical experts from the industries and academia evaluated the data for their technical novelty. The data indicate a relationship between innovation and productivity growth.

Notes: This article summarizes the results of a large scale research which was conducted in 41 large Belgian companies. One hundred thirty-one innovation projects were studied in order to bring to light the factors encouraging or inhibiting the innovation process in large companies.A stage-model of the innovation process is proposed, including the following phases: perception of the idea, conceptualization, development and operationalization. Favourable and unfavourable factors are emphasized at each stage. On the basis of these conclusions, recommendations are drawn which are aimed at managers, the public authorities, the universities and the trades unions. These recommendations concern three areas: increasing the technical-economic forecasting capacity of the companies and of the economic community at large; stimulating the research efforts inside and outside the firm; organizing the innovation development process within the firm.

Notes: The purpose of the paper is to suggest a quantitative method for analyzing the innovation risk from both technological and an economic point of view as a contribution to the strategic evaluation and planning process. Specifically the method provides a predictive evaluation of the probability of the commercial success of technological breakthroughs.The method is a quantification of the qualitative method originally developed by White and Graham. It consists of a stepwise process in which the benefits of a technology are classified under four major headings: inventive merit, embodiment merit, market merit, and operational merit. Within each heading, the target technology is evaluated by pairwise comparison with alternative technologies, using a Saaty-type procedure. The decision-maker can conduct a sensitivity analysis and the evaluation can be made collaborative by using a group of judges.The methodology which is computerized is described in some detail. Its use is illustrated by applying it to an hypothetical project in the field of information retrieval in which CD-ROM is compared with three alternative technologies.

Notes: The author suggests that the systematic identification of a firm's technologies opens up the possibility of evaluating, protecting, optimizing, enriching and exploiting these technologies to the full. A firm's technologies fall into two parts: those embodied and exploited in current operations and those evolving from the collective competencies of its R&D staff. The author's aim is to evaluate and describe the firm's R&D competencies.The identification of R&D competencies proceeds in three steps: tracing the background of the current and past programmes, constructing a programmes/competencies matrix, and deriving an expertise profile. The construction of the matrix is the key activity and requires much care in its execution, if competencies are to be properly defined and truly existing, and if it is to be exhaustive. The author sketches a procedure for constructing a matrix and discusses problems of implementation and draws attention to some of its limitations.The author claims that such an inventory of expertise could improve the efficiency of the use of the R&D resource, identify a laboratory's strengths and weaknesses, direct R&D into hitherto neglected channels, assist individuals to identify and evaluate their own expertise, justify obtaining funding for building expertise in shortage areas. The method should be considered as a starting point to formulate appropriate strategies to gain access to technology.

Notes: The emphasis of environmental protection has been expanded from the protection of our surrounding natural world to the protection of our health and well-being. Research facilities often have a responsibility, as individual organizations and as an industry, to consider this protection and comply with all applicable governmental regulations. The intent of this article is to increase the expertise of R&D managers so that they will be able to recognize environmental issues and potential costs associated with, and prior to any future commercialization of, their subject research. While it is directed toward considerations unique to pilot plant and laboratory operations, several of the issues discussed can be valid for full-scale commercial facilities developed as a result of that research.

Notes: To test a model of creative behaviour in teams, twenty five problem-solving groups were assembled from a Business School graduate programme, trained in creative problem-solving techniques and given a realistic product development task. Self-assessment ratings were collected for factors perceived as influencing performance. Three experienced trainers rated the ideas produced. Four major factors were identified from the self-assessed statements, each mentioned as positive and negative influences. The study provides a foundation for developing diagnostic tools for assessing creative performance in problem-solving teams, and gives pointers to factors which are important for improving performance.

Notes: The authors have explored further the effect of the tenure of an R&D group (that is, the length of time in which it has existed) on its performance. Several studies have shown that groups tend to reach a peak of productivity after a few years and decline thereafter. However, it seems that not all teams so decline and the aim of the authors' study reported in this paper was to see what could be learned from those groups that continued to be successful.They therefore studied a sample of 181 teams comprising 2000 subjects drawn from a wide variety of R&D organizations. Their objectives were first to pick out those teams that remained effective and second, to discover the secret of their success. Group performances were assessed subjectively by senior members of each organization. Group tenures were measured by calculating the average time each individual member had spent in the group. Further information was obtained from questionnaires completed by participants.Analysis of the results led to the surprising conclusion that there was no evidence whatever for the previously reported curvilinear relationship between performance and tenure. Nevertheless, some long-tenured teams per-formed much better than others and better than newly-formed teams, for which the authors have sought an explanation.From information deduced from the questionnaires they conclude that the crucial factor is the extent to which the functional manager (department head) as distinct from the project manager nurtures individual researchers, especially in ensuring that they keep abreast of progress in relevant areas of expertise. The role of the project manager on the other hand is to maintain connection between the team and institutional objectives.

Notes: The paper contains a report of a test of Cooper's NewProd model for predicting success and failure of product development projects. Based on Canadian data, the model has been shown to make predictions which are 84% correct. Having reservations on the reliability and validity of the model on theoretical grounds, we set out to test it using data collected in the Netherlands.Following Cooper's methodology, we selected 19 projects, which had already been marketed and of which 9 were clearcut successes and 10 clearcut failures. We also studied 9 additional projects, which had not yet been commercialised, as the basis for a future a priori test. The projects were given a product score according to Cooper's criteria, and predictions compared with the actual experience. Eightyfour percent were correctly classified, as in Cooper's work. From a practical point of view however the variance was too large to allow the predictions from NewProd to be used with confidence to predict outcomes unless they are clearcut.We believe that the drawback of the methodology is that the product score is a simple combination of the various factors involved. No allowance is made for the possibility that one factor alone might be responsible for failure. We have therefore introduced the concept of a threshold value for each factor. A project for which any factor falls below this value will be deemed a failure. Based on a very limited sample of 19 cases an improvement of reliability was made to 95% of 18 out of 19 products correctly classified. The NewProd concept so modified is being applied to the sample of 9 as yet uncompleted projects, and its predictions will eventually be compared with actual outcomes.

Notes: In this paper a framework of university-industry interactions is discussed. The presence or absence of academic entrepreneurial behaviour is considered as a basic variable in distinguishing a host of transfer mechanisms. As a hypothesis it is stated that university-industry interactions are hampered by three types of barriers: cultural, institutional and operational.This framework is then applied to the Belgian university system. The relative importance of different groups of transfer mechanisms is described. Particular attention is given to the barriers occurring during licensing arrangements and entrepreneurial ventures. A mix of cultural, institutional and operational barriers helps to explain why licensing arrangements and entrepreneurial ventures occur at present less frequently then the assistance mechanisms.

Notes: This article discusses the peer review system in the context of countries with small scientific communities. It is argued that the traditional peer review system is inadequate and probably dangerous for such countries. The reasoning is that in scientifically small countries personal relations and politics dominate the scene and objective impartial evaluation is not possible. The novel peer review systems adopted in the Netherlands and in South Africa are outlined and suggestions for improvements are made.〈section xml:id="abs1-2"〉〈title type="main"〉SUMMARY AND SUGGESTIONS FOR IMPROVEMENTThe thrust of this article is the argument that the traditional peer-review system is inadequate and probably dangerous for scientifically small countries. Although there is no hard empirical evidence to support the thesis that the peer-review system is functioning better in scientifically large countries, a priori reasoning and circumstantial evidence indicate that the system is inefffective in countries with small scientific communities. The reasoning is that in small countries personal relations and politics dominate the scene and objective, impartial evaluation is not possible. As a result science policy can be misguided and societal loss can occur as valuable research effort is spent on ineffective peer-evaluations.A variety of measures can be used to compensate for the ineffectiveness of the peer-review system. The prime goal, however, is not only to increase the effectiveness of the system, but also to minimize societal costs due to misallocation of resources.The first step towards improvement of the system is to monitor it. Referees' reports and advice can be kept in files and properly analysed periodically. In this way biases concerning researchers, institutes, scientific subjects and approaches can be identified and appropriately remedied. Refereeing the referees could elimate intentional biases and improve the quality control system by anticipation. Referees knowing that their reports would be checked would take care to prepare proper evaluations.Increasing the number of referees is another way to increase reliability. Scientists from other disciplines can and should be incorporated in the evaluation juries. This way relevance of research and cross-fertilisation of ideas can be incorporated in the system, partly ‘disinterested’ referees will be included in the juries (i.e. referees and applicants would not compete for the same research funds) and the lack of scientists in scientifically small countries will be alleviated. Care should be taken, however, not to over-burden the system with unnecessary evaluation effort. In requiring researchers with demonstrated ability to go through the process of making formal applications for funding every year, valuable research time is wasted in preparing and evaluating proposals which, after all, will go through due to the status of the applicant. Attempting to regulate the expansion or contraction of the forest and not of the trees may provide a better solution. Evaluating researchers and disciplines instead of individual projects and funding them accordingly may save valuable research time and increase research productivity and effectiveness.Finally, one of the most promising areas for improvement in the decision making process is the incorporation of quantitative techniques in the tool-kit of evaluation criteria. Publication and citation analyses can reveal the past performance (which is the only indicator of success for future research) of individuals and research groups. In a sense, bibliometric anaiysis can be seen as an expansion in time and panel size of the conventional peer reviews. Instead of asking a limited number of referees about a scientist's work, we count the citations that the particular scientist received by the whole scientific community and over an extended time period. Provided that care is taken to exclude self-citations, negative citations, compare the same with the same, citation analysis can identify the pecking order in the scientific community. As bibliometric measures correlate well with non-bibliometric measures (Table 2) the use of such criteria can ameliorate personal biases, improve objective evaluations and reduce time spent on evaluation purposes considerably.

Notes: The theory of optimal employment contracts under asymmetric information generally assumes that the firm is unable to convince workers about the truth of its reports about the state of the world. However evidence indicates that firms are actually unwilling to reveal information for reasons connected with collective bargaining. The present note sets out a bargaining model which rationalizes this attitude and shows that it may cause employment to diverge from its optimal level.

Notes: The paper surveys recent work on dual economy models starting from the famous 1961 Jorgenson paper and ending with some of the new contributions to the literature on North-South trade which have the same analytical structure as the dual economy model. Various models are compared with respect to assumptions about asymmetries, speeds of adjustment and factor immobilities. Two important conclusions are noted: dynamic behaviour is often quite sensitive to the ranking of adjustment speeds and the direction of further research should be toward further disaggregation.

Notes: For purposes ranging from practical commercial policy matters to the testing of theoretical trade models, economists have utilized aggregate data relating to tariffs and non-tariff barriers (NTBs) across countries. However, the statistics employed in these analyses are generally derived using aggregation procedures which are based on weights relating to trade that occurs under restrictions. While it is recognized that this approach incorporates a bias in the resulting averages, due to the fact that the products facing the highest tariffs or NTBs enter the calculation with relatively low (actual) trade weights, little information is available for quantifying the magnitude of this bias. This study provides such empirical evidence and also proposes indices that overcome some shortcomings of the traditional measures.

Notes: An illustration of the ambiguities in the behaviour of a labour-managed firm in the long run when both capital and labour are variable is provided by means of an example which can be completely solved. Input demand and output supply functions are derived from a suggested production function. The special case of a homothetic production function is yielded by one of five parameter sets identified.

Notes: The relationship between company R&D and commercial performance, if any, is the subject of much discussion and little measurement. One view (Bisio and Gastwirt 1979) is that meaningful quantitative generalisations on the value of R&D to companies cannot be made.A later study (Bergen 1983) introduced quantitative methods by creating a series of hypotheses. These were tested by scoring related variables and analysing the data for correlations and population differences. The study was confined to one industry to approach like for like comparison as closely as possible.The results encouraged the extension of the study to include Japan (Bergen & Miyajima 1986) and the USA. The present paper reports on the four country quantitative comparisons. Among other indications, the findings support the view that national culture is an important factor in both methods and results and that there is a correlation between R&D investment and productivity.

Notes: This paper summarizes the results of in-depth case studies of international R&D management in four Swedish multinational corporations. The results suggest that foreign volumes and shares of R&D expenditures are rapidly increasing. Through a rapidly increasing number of foreign acquisitions, foreign R&D laboratories have been added. As part of international rationalization of production, foreign units have been given global product mandates with responsibility both for manufacturing and R&D. In maturing foreign subsidiaries, routine technical activities have often evolved into proper R&D. Tight labour market conditions for engineers in Sweden have made it increasingly necessary to exploit existing technical capacity, regardless of location.Concurrently, companies face new pressures for international coordination and control of R&D. Coordination is required to reduce product differentiation, to facilitate technology transfer and to ensure the technical and market compatibility of products and components developed at different locations but sold as part of total systems. Drawing on the experience in the four investigated companies, the paper discusses how systems and procedures can be developed to meet the need for coordinated international R&D management.

Notes: Increasing numbers of large firms are splitting themselves into self-standing businesses for the purpose of targeting opportunities more accurately. Based on the findings of an empirical study of product development procedures in leading UK and US manufacturing firms this article provides R&D and other managers with a checklist of the processes involved in developing products speedily and efficiently. Businesses which use product innovation successfully as a competitive weapon are shown to approach development work in a way which is far more comprehensive than aiming only at efficient technical project management. In such businesses supportive top management and efficient interfunctional teamwork emerge as key factors concerned with running a total business both now and in the future.

Notes: This paper presents a conceptual model as a new framework of the technology development processes in LDCs based on global perspective. The proposed model consists of three development stages such as initiation, internalization, and generation, as well as some propositions related to the levels of transferred technology, technology acquisition modes, technology elements mastered, and major contributors of technology development in each development stage.The model explains several dynamic changes in LDC's development processes with global perspectives focussing on the DC-LDC linkages. In addition to formal channels, this model also deals with non-formal channels, including imitation, which are unduly neglected in the literature, equally important as methods of technology acquisition. Moreover, the proposed model analyzes the technology development processes from several different standpoints and embraces multi-level units of analysis such as country, industry, firm, and unit technology. Because the proposed model explains the observable phenomena only and is a conceptual model to be tested, further theoretical studies are needed to explain the underlying principles of technology development in LDCs such as the technology learning theory. In addition, further empirical studies to test the global perspective model in various situations are needed.