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  • Climate change  (30)
  • Springer Netherlands  (18)
  • Frontiers Media  (11)
  • Milano: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)
  • Nature Publishing Group
  • American Institute of Physics (AIP)
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-10-27
    Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Stunz, E., Fetcher, N., Lavretsky, P., Mohl, J., Tang, J., & Moody, M. Landscape genomics provides evidence of ecotypic adaptation and a barrier to gene flow at treeline for the arctic foundation species Eriophorum vaginatum. Frontiers in Plant Science, 13, (2022): 860439, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2022.860439.
    Description: Global climate change has resulted in geographic range shifts of flora and fauna at a global scale. Extreme environments, like the Arctic, are seeing some of the most pronounced changes. This region covers 14% of the Earth’s land area, and while many arctic species are widespread, understanding ecotypic variation at the genomic level will be important for elucidating how range shifts will affect ecological processes. Tussock cottongrass (Eriophorum vaginatum L.) is a foundation species of the moist acidic tundra, whose potential decline due to competition from shrubs may affect ecosystem stability in the Arctic. We used double-digest Restriction Site-Associated DNA sequencing to identify genomic variation in 273 individuals of E. vaginatum from 17 sites along a latitudinal gradient in north central Alaska. These sites have been part of 30 + years of ecological research and are inclusive of a region that was part of the Beringian refugium. The data analyses included genomic population structure, demographic models, and genotype by environment association. Genome-wide SNP investigation revealed environmentally associated variation and population structure across the sampled range of E. vaginatum, including a genetic break between populations north and south of treeline. This structure is likely the result of subrefugial isolation, contemporary isolation by resistance, and adaptation. Forty-five candidate loci were identified with genotype-environment association (GEA) analyses, with most identified genes related to abiotic stress. Our results support a hypothesis of limited gene flow based on spatial and environmental factors for E. vaginatum, which in combination with life history traits could limit range expansion of southern ecotypes northward as the tundra warms. This has implications for lower competitive attributes of northern plants of this foundation species likely resulting in changes in ecosystem productivity.
    Description: This research was made possible by funding provided by NSF/PLR-1417645 to MM. The Botanical Society of America Graduate Student Research Award and the Dodson Research Grant from the Graduate School of the University of Texas at El Paso provided assistance to ES. The grant 5U54MD007592 from the National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities (NIMHD), a component of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) provided bioinformatics resources and support of JM.
    Keywords: Arctic ; Climate change ; Eriophorum vaginatum ; Landscape genomics ; Environmental niche modeling ; Genotype-environment association analyses ; Refugia
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-10-27
    Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Winters, G., Teichberg, M., Reuter, H., Viana, I. G., & Willette, D. A. Editorial: seagrasses under times of change. Frontiers in Plant Science, 13, (2022): 870478, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2022.870478.
    Description: Awareness of the ecological importance of seagrasses is growing due to recent attention to their role in carbon sequestration as a potential blue carbon sink (Fourqurean et al., 2012; Bedulli et al.), as well as their role in nutrient cycling (Romero et al., 2006), sediment stabilization (James et al., 2019), pathogen filtration (Lamb et al., 2017), and the formation of essential habitats for economically important marine species (Jackson et al., 2001; Jones et al.). Despite their importance and the increasing public and scientific awareness of seagrasses, simultaneous global (e.g., ocean warming, increase in frequency and severity of extreme events, introduction and spread of invasive species) and local (e.g., physical disturbances, eutrophication, and sedimentation) anthropogenic stressors continue to be the main causes behind the ongoing global decline of seagrass meadows (Orth et al., 2006; Waycott et al., 2009).
    Description: This research was partially funded through the BMBF project SEANARIOS (Seagrass scenarios under thermal and nutrient stress: FKZ 03F0826A) to HR and MT. MT was partially funded through the DFG project SEAMAC (Seagrass and macroalgal community dynamics and performance under environmental change; TE 1046/3-1). IV was supported by a postdoctoral research grant Juan de la Cierva-Incorporación (IJC2019-040554-I) and from MCIN/AEI /10.13039/501100011033 (Spain).
    Keywords: Seagrasses ; Climate change ; Eutrophication ; Responses of seagrasses to single and combined stressors ; Spatial-temporal modeling
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2023-11-15
    Description: In mountain environments dimensions of climate change are unclear because of limited availability of meteorological stations. However, there is a necessity to assess the scope of local climate change, as the livelihood and food systems of subsistence-based communities are already getting impacted. To provide more clarity about local climate trends in the Pamir Mountains of Tajikistan, this study integrates measured climate data with community observations in the villages of Savnob and Roshorv. Taking a transdisciplinary approach, both knowledge systems were considered as equally pertinent and mutually informed the research process. Statistical trends of temperature and snow cover were retrieved using downscaled ERA5 temperature data and the snow cover product MOD10A1. Local knowledge was gathered through community workshops and structured interviews and analysed using a consensus index. Results showed, that local communities perceived increasing temperatures in autumn and winter and decreasing amounts of snow and rain. Instrumental data records indicated an increase in summer temperatures and a shortening of the snow season in Savnob. As both knowledge systems entail their own strengths and limitations, an integrative assessment can broaden the understanding of local climate trends by (i) reducing existing uncertainties, (ii) providing new information, and (iii) introducing unforeseen perspectives. The presented study represents a time-efficient and global applicable approach for assessing local dimensions of climate change in data-deficient regions.
    Description: Projekt DEAL
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; Climate change ; Pamir Mountains ; Local knowledge ; Perception ; Climate data ; Statistical downscaling
    Language: English
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2023-08-25
    Description: Many nations face challenges in assessing, understanding, and responding to the time-dependent nature of disaster risk. Changes in the intensity of occurrences of extreme events coupled with changes in vulnerability and exposure alter the impacts of natural hazards on society in mostly negative ways. Here an interrelationship between natural hazard (NH), climate change (CC), vulnerability (V), exposure (E), and decisionmaking (DM) is considered. While NHs trigger disasters and CC is likely to intensify occurrences of disasters, V and E present major drivers of disasters. Informed DM on disaster risk reduction should be based on scientific evidence from NH and CC, knowledge of V and E, and relevant options for actions on preventive disaster measures as a part of preparedness and public awareness.
    Description: Russian Science Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100006769
    Description: Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT) (4220)
    Keywords: ddc:363.7 ; Disaster ; Vulnerability ; Exposure ; Natural hazard ; Risk ; Climate change ; Preparedness ; Public awareness
    Language: English
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2023-08-25
    Description: Empirical and theoretical studies suggest that marine species respond to ocean warming by shifting ranges poleward and/or into deeper depths. However, future distributional patterns of deep-sea organisms, which comprise the largest ecosystem of Earth, remain poorly known. We explore potential horizontal range shifts of benthic shallow-water and deep-sea Crustacea due to climatic changes within the remainder of the century, and discuss the results in light of species-specific traits related to invasiveness. Using a maximum entropy approach, we estimated the direction and magnitude of distributional shifts for 94 species belonging to 12 orders of benthic marine crustaceans, projected to the years 2050 and 2100. Distance, direction, and species richness shifts between climate zones were estimated conservatively, by considering only areas suitable, non-extrapolative, and adjacent to the currently known distributions. Our hypothesis is that species will present poleward range-shifts, based on results of previous studies. Results reveal idiosyncratic and species-specific responses, with prevailing poleward shifts and a decline of species richness at mid-latitudes, while more frequent shifts between temperate to polar regions were recovered. Shallow-water species are expected to shift longer distances than deep-sea species. Net gain of suitability is slightly higher than the net loss for shallow-water species, while for deep-sea species, the net loss is higher than the gain in all scenarios. Our estimates can be viewed as a set of hypotheses for future analytical and empirical studies, and will be useful in planning and executing strategic interventions and developing conservation strategies.
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung (SGN) (3507)
    Keywords: ddc:577.7 ; Climate change ; Deep-sea ; Shallow-water ; Distributional shift ; Ecological niche modeling ; Mobility-oriented parity metric (MOP)
    Language: English
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Bernhard, J. M., Wit, J. C., Starczak, V. R., Beaudoin, D. J., Phalen, W. G., & McCorkle, D. C. Impacts of multiple stressors on a benthic foraminiferal community: a long-term experiment assessing response to ocean acidification, hypoxia and warming. Frontiers in Marine Science, 8, (2021): 643339, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.643339.
    Description: Ocean chemistry is changing as a result of human activities. Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations are increasing, causing an increase in oceanic pCO2 that drives a decrease in oceanic pH, a process called ocean acidification (OA). Higher CO2 concentrations are also linked to rising global temperatures that can result in more stratified surface waters, reducing the exchange between surface and deep waters; this stronger stratification, along with nutrient pollution, contributes to an expansion of oxygen-depleted zones (so called hypoxia or deoxygenation). Determining the response of marine organisms to environmental changes is important for assessments of future ecosystem functioning. While many studies have assessed the impact of individual or paired stressors, fewer studies have assessed the combined impact of pCO2, O2, and temperature. A long-term experiment (∼10 months) with different treatments of these three stressors was conducted to determine their sole or combined impact on the abundance and survival of a benthic foraminiferal community collected from a continental-shelf site. Foraminifera are well suited to such study because of their small size, relatively rapid growth, varied mineralogies and physiologies. Inoculation materials were collected from a ∼77-m deep site south of Woods Hole, MA. Very fine sediments (〈53 μm) were used as inoculum, to allow the entire community to respond. Thirty-eight morphologically identified taxa grew during the experiment. Multivariate statistical analysis indicates that hypoxia was the major driving factor distinguishing the yields, while warming was secondary. Species responses were not consistent, with different species being most abundant in different treatments. Some taxa grew in all of the triple-stressor samples. Results from the experiment suggest that foraminiferal species’ responses will vary considerably, with some being negatively impacted by predicted environmental changes, while other taxa will tolerate, and perhaps even benefit, from deoxygenation, warming and OA.
    Description: This work was supported by the US NSF SEES-OA grant OCE-1219948 to JB and the Investment in Science Program at WHOI. DM also received support from the NSF Independent Research and Development Program.
    Keywords: Deoxygenation ; Ocean acidification ; Benthic communities ; Benthic foraminifera ; Climate change ; Propagule bank ; Global warming
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2023-08-24
    Description: Over the last few years, climate change has risen to the top of the agenda in many Western democracies, backed by a growing share of voters supporting climate protection policies. To understand how and why these changes came about, we revisit the question whether personal experiences with increasingly unusual local weather conditions affect people’s beliefs about climate change and their related attitudes. We first take a closer look at the theoretical underpinnings and extend the theoretical argument to account for the differential impact of different weather phenomena, as well as the role of prior beliefs and individual reference frames. Applying mixed-effects regressions to a novel dataset combining individual-level multi-wave panel survey data from up to 18,010 German voters collected from 2016 to 2019 with weather data from 514 weather stations, we show that personally experiencing unusual or extreme local weather did not shape people’s awareness of climate change as a political problem or their climate policy preferences in a sustained manner. Even among people who may be considered most likely to exhibit such effects, we did not detect them. Moreover, we demonstrate that the common modeling strategy of combining fixed-effects regression with clustered standard errors leads to severely reduced standard errors and substantively different results. We conclude that it cannot be taken for granted that personally experiencing extreme weather phenomena makes a difference in perceptions of climate change and related policy preferences.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:363.7 ; Climate change ; Policy preferences ; Experiential learning ; Mixed-effects regression ; Panel data
    Language: English
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2023-11-17
    Description: While a growing literature studies the effects of climate change on international migration, still only relatively little is known about the individual mechanisms linking migration decisions to climate change. We argue that climate change literacy (i.e., knowledge about climate change) is a major determinant of why some individuals consider migrating to other countries in response to climate change effects. In particular, climate change literacy helps individuals translate their perceptions of temperature changes into an understanding of these changes’ irreversible long-term consequences. We test this hypothesis using highly accurate geo-coded data for 37,000 individuals across 30 African countries. We show that climate change indeed leads to stronger migration intentions among climate literates only. Furthermore, we show that climate change only increases migration intentions among climate literates when it is approximated by long-run increases in local temperatures, but not when operationalized as changing heat wave or precipitation patterns. Further analyses show that climate literates are more likely to live in urban areas, have a higher news consumption, are highly educated, and have demanding occupations. Consequently, climate change may further deprive affected countries of valuable talent.
    Description: leibniz-gemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001664
    Description: Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung gGmbH (3511)
    Description: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/3LRAFL
    Keywords: ddc:304.2 ; International migration ; Migration intentions ; Climate change ; Climate change literacy ; Africa
    Language: English
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2024-02-15
    Description: Climate change impacts and their consequences are determined not only by the intensity and frequency of different climatic hazards but also by the vulnerability of the system, society or community exposed. While general agreement exists about the importance of assessing vulnerability to understand climate risks, there is still a tendency to neglect global and regional vulnerability patterns because they are hard to quantify, despite their value in informing adaptation, disaster risk and development policies. Several approaches to quantifying global vulnerability exist. These differ in terms of the indicators they use and how they classify countries or regions into vulnerability classes. The paper presents the structure of selected approaches and explores two indices in depth. The aim of this paper is to assess the level of agreement between selected international indicator-based assessments of vulnerability, at the level of climate regions. Results suggest that the two major global vulnerability assessments analysed largely agree on the location of the most and least vulnerable regions when these assessments are aggregated to a regional scale using the IPCC’s climate regions. The paper then discusses the robustness of the information derived and its usefulness for adaptation, disaster risk and development policies. Measuring progress towards reducing vulnerability to climate change and hazards is key for various agencies and actors in order to be able to develop informed policies and strategies for managing climate risks and to promote enabling conditions for achieving the SDGs and building resilience.
    Description: Universität Stuttgart (1023)
    Keywords: ddc:304.28 ; Vulnerability ; Hotspots ; Indicators ; Climate change ; Global mapping
    Language: English
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2022-10-27
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scalpone, C. R., Jarvis, J. C., Vasslides, J. M., Testa, J. M., & Ganju, N. K. Simulated estuary-wide response of seagrass (Zostera marina) to future scenarios of temperature and sea level. Frontiers in Marine Science, 7, (2020): 539946, doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.539946.
    Description: Seagrass communities are a vital component of estuarine ecosystems, but are threatened by projected sea level rise (SLR) and temperature increases with climate change. To understand these potential effects, we developed a spatially explicit model that represents seagrass (Zostera marina) habitat and estuary-wide productivity for Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor (BB-LEH) in New Jersey, United States. Our modeling approach included an offline coupling of a numerical seagrass biomass model with the spatially variable environmental conditions from a hydrodynamic model to calculate above and belowground biomass at each grid cell of the hydrodynamic model domain. Once calibrated to represent present day seagrass habitat and estuary-wide annual productivity, we applied combinations of increasing air temperature and sea level following regionally specific climate change projections, enabling analysis of the individual and combined impacts of these variables on seagrass biomass and spatial coverage. Under the SLR scenarios, the current model domain boundaries were maintained, as the land surrounding BB-LEH is unlikely to shift significantly in the future. SLR caused habitat extent to decrease dramatically, pushing seagrass beds toward the coastline with increasing depth, with a 100% loss of habitat by the maximum SLR scenario. The dramatic loss of seagrass habitat under SLR was in part due to the assumption that surrounding land would not be inundated, as the model did not allow for habitat expansion outside the current boundaries of the bay. Temperature increases slightly elevated the rate of summer die-off and decreased habitat area only under the highest temperature increase scenarios. In combined scenarios, the effects of SLR far outweighed the effects of temperature increase. Sensitivity analysis of the model revealed the greatest sensitivity to changes in parameters affecting light limitation and seagrass mortality, but no sensitivity to changes in nutrient limitation constants. The high vulnerability of seagrass in the bay to SLR exceeded that demonstrated for other systems, highlighting the importance of site- and region-specific assessments of estuaries under climate change.
    Description: This research was supported by the National Science Foundation Research Experience for Undergraduates Program (OCE-1659463), the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Summer Student Fellowship Program, the Barnegat Bay Partnership (through a US EPA Clean Water Act grant to Ocean County College; CE98212313), and the USGS Coastal and Marine Hazards/Resources Program. Although this project has been funded in part by the United States Environmental Protection Agency pursuant to a grant agreement with Ocean County College, it has not gone through the Agency’s publications review process and may not necessarily reflect the views of the Agency; therefore, no official endorsement should be assumed. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.
    Keywords: Seagrass (Zostera) ; Climate change ; Spatial model ; Sea level rise ; Temperature ; North American Atlantic Coast ; Regional ; Eelgrass (Zostera marina)
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Wagner, S., Schubotz, F., Kaiser, K., Hallmann, C., Waska, H., Rossel, P. E., Hansmann, R., Elvert, M., Middelburg, J. J., Engel, A., Blattmann, T. M., Catala, T. S., Lennartz, S. T., Gomez-Saez, G., V., Pantoja-Gutierrez, S., Bao, R., & Galy, V. Soothsaying DOM: A current perspective on the future of oceanic dissolved organic carbon. Frontiers in Marine Science, 7, (2020): 341, doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.00341.
    Description: The vast majority of freshly produced oceanic dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is derived from marine phytoplankton, then rapidly recycled by heterotrophic microbes. A small fraction of this DOC survives long enough to be routed to the interior ocean, which houses the largest and oldest DOC reservoir. DOC reactivity depends upon its intrinsic chemical composition and extrinsic environmental conditions. Therefore, recalcitrance is an emergent property of DOC that is analytically difficult to constrain. New isotopic techniques that track the flow of carbon through individual organic molecules show promise in unveiling specific biosynthetic or degradation pathways that control the metabolic turnover of DOC and its accumulation in the deep ocean. However, a multivariate approach is required to constrain current carbon fluxes so that we may better predict how the cycling of oceanic DOC will be altered with continued climate change. Ocean warming, acidification, and oxygen depletion may upset the balance between the primary production and heterotrophic reworking of DOC, thus modifying the amount and/or composition of recalcitrant DOC. Climate change and anthropogenic activities may enhance mobilization of terrestrial DOC and/or stimulate DOC production in coastal waters, but it is unclear how this would affect the flux of DOC to the open ocean. Here, we assess current knowledge on the oceanic DOC cycle and identify research gaps that must be addressed to successfully implement its use in global scale carbon models.
    Description: This work was funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) project number 422798570. The Hanse-Wissenschaftskolleg and the Geochemical Society provided funding for the conference. Additional support was provided by the National Science Foundation OCE #1756812 to SW. TB acknowledges funding from ETH Zürich and JAMSTEC. JM was supported by the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre. SP-G was funded by COPAS Sur-Austral (CONICYT PIA APOYO CCTE AFB170006). GG-S acknowledges funding from DFG, DI 842/6-1.
    Keywords: Dissolved organic carbon ; Global carbon cycle ; Recalcitrance ; Isotopic probing ; Climate change
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Benthuysen, J. A., Oliver, E. C. J., Chen, K., & Wernberg, T. Editorial: advances in understanding marine heatwaves and their impacts. Frontiers in Marine Science, 7, (2020): 147, doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.00147.
    Description: Editorial on the Research Topic Advances in Understanding Marine Heatwaves and Their Impacts In recent years, prolonged, extremely warm water events, known as marine heatwaves, have featured prominently around the globe with their disruptive consequences for marine ecosystems. Over the past decade, marine heatwaves have occurred from the open ocean to marginal seas and coastal regions, including the unprecedented 2011 Western Australia marine heatwave (Ningaloo Niño) in the eastern Indian Ocean (e.g., Pearce et al., 2011), the 2012 northwest Atlantic marine heatwave (Chen et al., 2014), the 2012 and 2015 Mediterranean Sea marine heatwaves (Darmaraki et al., 2019), the 2013/14 western South Atlantic (Rodrigues et al., 2019) and 2017 southwestern Atlantic marine heatwave (Manta et al., 2018), the persistent 2014–2016 “Blob” in the North Pacific (Bond et al., 2015; Di Lorenzo and Mantua, 2016), the 2015/16 marine heatwave spanning the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean to the Coral Sea (Benthuysen et al., 2018), and the Tasman Sea marine heatwaves in 2015/16 (Oliver et al., 2017) and 2017/18 (Salinger et al., 2019). These events have set new records for marine heatwave intensity, the temperature anomaly exceeding a climatology, and duration, the sustained period of extreme temperatures. We have witnessed the profound consequences of these thermal disturbances from acute changes to marine life to enduring impacts on species, populations, and communities (Smale et al., 2019). These marine heatwaves have spurred a diversity of research spanning the methodology of identifying and quantifying the events (e.g., Hobday et al., 2016) and their historical trends (Oliver et al., 2018), understanding their physical mechanisms and relationships with climate modes (e.g., Holbrook et al., 2019), climate projections (Frölicher et al., 2018), and understanding the biological impacts for organisms and ecosystem function and services (e.g., Smale et al., 2019). By using sea surface temperature percentiles, temperature anomalies can be quantified based on their local variability and account for the broad range of temperature regimes in different marine environments. For temperatures exceeding a 90th-percentile threshold beyond a period of 5-days, marine heatwaves can be classified into categories based on their intensity (Hobday et al., 2018). While these recent advances have provided the framework for understanding key aspects of marine heatwaves, a challenge lies ahead for effective integration of physical and biological knowledge for prediction of marine heatwaves and their ecological impacts. This Research Topic is motivated by the need to understand the mechanisms for how marine heatwaves develop and the biological responses to thermal stress events. This Research Topic is a collection of 18 research articles and three review articles aimed at advancing our knowledge of marine heatwaves within four themes. These themes include methods for detecting marine heatwaves, understanding their physical mechanisms, seasonal forecasting and climate projections, and ecological impacts.
    Description: We thank the contributing authors, reviewers, and the editorial staff at Frontiers in Marine Science for their support in producing this issue. We thank the Marine Heatwaves Working Group (http://www.marineheatwaves.org/) for inspiration and discussions. This special issue stemmed from the session on Advances in Understanding Marine Heat Waves and Their Impacts at the 2018 Ocean Sciences meeting (Portland, USA).
    Keywords: Marine heatwaves ; Extreme events ; Ocean and atmosphere interactions ; Marine ecosystems ; Marine resources ; Climate change ; Climate variability ; Climate prediction
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2023-06-08
    Description: We analyzed the depth distributions of benthic diatoms in two adjacent, but hydrologically distinct subalpine lakes (Lakes Soiernseen, S-Germany). Lake Unterer Soiernsee is affected by marked water-level fluctuations and is light-penetrated to the bottom most of the year, while Lake Oberer Soiernsee provides more stable conditions and an extended aphotic zone. Mixed samples of epiphytic, epilithic, epipsammic and epipelic periphyton were taken in one-meter depth steps by scuba divers. Most of the common benthic diatoms occurred in distinct depth-areas. RDA analyses showed that depth was strongly correlated with species distribution in both lakes. Depth-constrained cluster analyses indicated three distinct diatom community zones in each lake. A shallow littoral zone hosting mainly epiphytic and epilithic species and a deeper littoral zone with mainly epipsammic and epipelic taxa existed in both lakes. Additionally, a highly disturbed near-shore littoral zone with diatoms adapted to unstable conditions (aerophilic taxa, pioneer species) was found in Lake Unterer Soiernsee, and a deep-water pelagic zone with mainly planktonic taxa in Lake Oberer Soiernsee. Light availability, substrate, physical stressors and nutrient concentrations were linked closely with water depth. While light availability affected the ratio of benthic and planktonic diatoms, substrate type influenced benthic diatom assemblage structures. Diatoms occurring in surficial sediments of the aphotic zone represent an ideal cross-section of the recent diatom assemblage of the lake, including benthic and planktonic species. However, sediment samples taken in light-flooded depths are inappropriate for studies based on shifts between benthic and planktonic taxa, because in situ benthic species dominate the surface-sediment assemblages, while settled tychoplanktonic and planktonic species occur less frequently. A diatom-inferred depth model was created for each lake to prove the usability for down-core studies using weighted-averaging approaches. For both lakes these models are highly appropriate to reconstruct past fluctuations in water-transparency or lake-level. With regard to the development of diatom-based TP-transfer-functions for Bavarian mountain lakes, we found it is highly important to consider lake depth and transparency. Based on the findings of this study we recommend the creation of two different training-sets, one for deep or low-transparency lakes with an aphotic zone including both benthic and planktonic diatoms, and another one for shallow, clear water lakes solely using benthic diatoms.
    Keywords: ddc:561 ; Climate change ; Subalpine lakes ; Water-level fluctuations ; Diatom community zones ; TP-transfer function ; B/P ratio
    Language: English
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2023-06-14
    Description: The decision on how to manage a forest under climate change is subject to deep and dynamic uncertainties. The classic approach to analyze this decision adopts a predefined strategy, tests its robustness to uncertainties, but neglects their dynamic nature (i.e., that decision-makers can learn and adjust the strategy). Accounting for learning through dynamic adaptive strategies (DAS) can drastically improve expected performance and robustness to deep uncertainties. The benefits of considering DAS hinge on identifying critical uncertainties and translating them to detectable signposts to signal when to change course. This study advances the DAS approach to forest management as a novel application domain by showcasing methods to identify potential signposts for adaptation on a case study of a classic European beech management strategy in South-West Germany. We analyze the strategy’s robustness to uncertainties about model forcings and parameters. We then identify uncertainties that critically impact its economic and ecological performance by confronting a forest growth model with a large sample of time-varying scenarios. The case study results illustrate the potential of designing DAS for forest management and provide insights on key uncertainties and potential signposts. Specifically, economic uncertainties are the main driver of the strategy’s robustness and impact the strategy’s performance more critically than climate uncertainty. Besides economic metrics, the forest stand’s past volume growth is a promising signpost metric. It mirrors the effect of both climatic and model parameter uncertainty. The regular forest inventory and planning cycle provides an ideal basis for adapting a strategy in response to these signposts.
    Description: National Science Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001
    Keywords: ddc:333.7 ; Forest management ; Climate change ; Deep uncertainties ; Global sensitivity analysis ; Signposts ; Scenario discovery
    Language: English
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2023-06-14
    Description: Adaptive governance approaches emphasize the crucial role of the private sector in enabling climate change adaptation. Yet, the participation of local firms is still lacking, and little is known about the conditions potentially influencing firms’ adaptation decisions and mechanisms that might encourage private sector engagement. We address this gap with an empirical analysis of the willingness of manufacturing small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to participate financially in collective flood adaptation in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), a hotspot of future climate change risk. Using scenario-based field experiments, we shed light on internal and external conditions that influence potential investments in collective initiatives and explain what role SMEs can play in flood adaptation. We find that direct impacts of floods, perceived self-responsibility, and strong local ties motivate firms to participate in collective adaptation, whereas government support, sufficient financial resources, and previously implemented flood protection strategies reduce the necessity to act collectively. Here, opportunity costs and the handling of other business risks play a decisive role in investment decisions. This study shows that although private sector engagement appears to be a promising approach, it is not a panacea. Collective initiatives on flood adaptation need formal guidance and should involve local business networks and partnerships to give voice to the needs and capacities of SMEs, but such initiatives should not overstretch firms’ responsibilities.
    Description: University of Economics and Law, Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
    Description: Bundciesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Keywords: ddc:304.28 ; Private sector adaptation ; Climate change ; Flood response ; Small- and medium-sized firms ; Field experiments ; Vietnam
    Language: English
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2023-06-14
    Description: Importance of evaluation of global hydrological models (gHMs) before doing climate impact assessment was underlined in several studies. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of six gHMs in simulating observed discharge for a set of 57 large catchments applying common metrics with thresholds for the monthly and seasonal dynamics and summarize them estimating an aggregated index of model performance for each model in each basin. One model showed a good performance, and other five showed a weak or poor performance in most of the basins. In 15 catchments, evaluation results of all models were poor. The model evaluation was supplemented by climate impact assessment for a subset of 12 representative catchments using (1) usual ensemble mean approach and (2) weighted mean approach based on model performance, and the outcomes were compared. The comparison of impacts in terms of mean monthly and mean annual discharges using two approaches has shown that in four basins, differences were negligible or small, and in eight catchments, differences in mean monthly, mean annual discharge or both were moderate to large. The spreads were notably decreased in most cases when the second method was applied. It can be concluded that for improving credibility of projections, the model evaluation and application of the weighted mean approach could be recommended, especially if the mean monthly (seasonal) impacts are of interest, whereas the ensemble mean approach could be applied for projecting the mean annual changes. The calibration of gHMs could improve their performance and, consequently, the credibility of projections.
    Description: BMBF
    Description: JSPS KAKENHI
    Description: NSFC
    Keywords: ddc:551.48 ; Climate change ; Global hydrological models ; River discharge projections ; Model evaluation ; Model performance ; Model weighting ; Credibility of projections
    Language: English
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2023-06-14
    Description: This study focuses on heat stress conditions for dairy cattle production in West Africa under current and future climatic conditions. After testing the accuracy of the dynamically downscaled climate datasets for simulating the historical daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and relative humidity (RH) in West Africa for 50 meteorological stations, we used the dataset for calculating the temperature-humidity index (THI), i.e., an index indicating heat stress for dairy cattle on a daily scale. Calculations were made for the historical period (1981–2010) using the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset, and for two future periods (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) using climate predictions of the GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. Here, we show that during the period from 1981 to 2010 for 〉 1/5 of the region of West Africa, the frequency of severe/danger heat events per year, i.e., events that result in significant decreases in productive and reproductive performances, increased from 11 to 29–38 days (significant at 95% confidence level). Most obvious changes were observed for the eastern and southeastern parts. Under future climate conditions periods with severe/danger heat stress events will increase further as compared with the historical period by 5–22% depending on the GCM used. Moreover, the average length of periods with severe/danger heat stress is expected to increase from ~ 3 days in the historical period to ~ 4–7 days by 2021–2050 and even to up to 10 days by 2071–2100. Based on the average results of three GCMs, by 2071–2100, around 22% of dairy cattle population currently living in this area is expected to experience around 70 days more of severe/danger heat stress (compare with the historical period), especially in the southern half of West Africa. The result is alarming, as it shows that dairy production systems in West Africa are jeopardized at large scale by climate change and that depending on the GCM used, milk production might decrease by 200–400 kg/year by 2071–2100 in around 1, 7, or 11%. Our study calls for the development of improved dairy cattle production systems with higher adaptive capacity in order to deal with expected future heat stress conditions.
    Description: African Union Commission
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; THI ; Climate change ; Dairy cattle ; West Africa
    Language: English
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2023-06-16
    Description: Semi-arid regions are known for erratic precipitation patterns with significant effects on the hydrological cycle and water resources availability. High temporal and spatial variation in precipitation causes large variability in runoff over short durations. Due to low soil water storage capacity, base flow is often missing and rivers fall dry for long periods. Because of its climatic characteristics, the semi-arid north-eastern region of Brazil is prone to droughts. To counter these, reservoirs were built to ensure water supply during dry months. This paper describes problems and solutions when calibrating and validating the eco-hydrological model SWIM for semi-arid regions on the example of the Pajeú watershed in north-eastern Brazil. The model was calibrated to river discharge data before the year 1983, with no or little effects of water management, applying a simple and an enhanced approach. Uncertainties result mainly from the meteorological data and observed river discharges. After model calibration water management was included in the simulations. Observed and simulated reservoir volumes and river discharges are compared. The calibrated and validated models were used to simulate the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes and water resources management using data of two representative concentration pathways (RCP) and five earth system models (ESM). The differences in changes in natural and managed mean discharges are negligible (〈 5%) under RCP8.5 but notable (〉 5%) under RCP2.6 for the ESM ensemble mean. In semi-arid catchments, the enhanced approach should be preferred, because in addition to discharge, a second variable, here evapotranspiration, is considered for model validation.
    Description: BMBF Germany
    Description: BMGF Germany
    Keywords: ddc:551.48 ; Pajeú watershed ; Semi-arid ; Climate change ; Water management ; Hydrology ; SWIM
    Language: English
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2023-06-16
    Description: Climate change is a complex issue and understanding it is not an easy endeavour. An abundance of information is available through media and a lot of research has dealt with the question of how to best communicate this issue to the public. However, uncertainty and scepticism remain. In this paper, we argue that the subjective capability of informing oneself satisfactorily about climate change (i.e. informational self-efficacy) to reach goals like forming an opinion, evaluating political decisions regarding climate change, or behaving in a climate protective manner might be a crucial determinant of people’s engagement with the issue. In an online survey with a quota sample of German residents (N = 498), informational self-efficacy positively predicted people’s exposure to climate change communication in the media, their knowledge about the climate system and climate protective behaviours, and the extent to which they actually engaged in climate protective actions. Moreover, informational self-efficacy positively predicted climate protective behaviour and climate system knowledge indirectly through media exposure—but not behavioural knowledge. Hence, next to optimising the provided climate change communication, we suggest to strengthen people’s confidence in dealing with it through media literacy trainings and examine the causal effect of these trainings on informational self-efficacy and climate change engagement. Furthermore, the impact of different behaviours on climate change should be more often and more concretely discussed in media coverage.
    Description: Universität Koblenz-Landau (3155)
    Keywords: ddc:304.28 ; Climate change ; Climate change knowledge ; Pro-environmental behaviour ; Media exposure ; Self-efficacy
    Language: English
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2023-06-12
    Description: The current nationally determined contributions, pledged by the countries under the Paris Agreement, are far from limiting climate change to below 2 ∘C temperature increase by the end of the century. The necessary ratcheting up of climate policy is projected to come with a wide array of additional benefits, in particular a reduction of today’s 4.5 million annual premature deaths due to poor air quality. This paper therefore addresses the question how climate policy and air pollution–related health impacts interplay until 2050 by developing a comprehensive global modeling framework along the cause and effect chain of air pollution–induced social costs. We find that ratcheting up climate policy to a 2 ∘ compliant pathway results in welfare benefits through reduced air pollution that are larger than mitigation costs, even with avoided climate change damages neglected. The regional analysis demonstrates that the 2 ∘C pathway is therefore, from a social cost perspective, a “no-regret option” in the global aggregate, but in particular for China and India due to high air quality benefits, and also for developed regions due to net negative mitigation costs. Energy and resource exporting regions, on the other hand, face higher mitigation cost than benefits. Our analysis further shows that the result of higher health benefits than mitigation costs is robust across various air pollution control scenarios. However, although climate mitigation results in substantial air pollution emission reductions overall, we find significant remaining emissions in the transport and industry sectors even in a 2 ∘C world. We therefore call for further research in how to optimally exploit climate policy and air pollution control, deriving climate change mitigation pathways that maximize co-benefits.
    Keywords: ddc:363.73 ; Air pollution ; Co-benefits ; Climate change ; Health impacts
    Language: English
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2023-06-12
    Description: Many people in African countries derive their livelihoods from agriculture. Therefore, unfavourable environmental and climatic conditions render them more vulnerable to increasing food insecurity and poverty rates. However, few studies have investigated how farmers’ adaptation strategies affect farm productivity and household food security in the Sahelian region, notably Mali. We analyse factors that influence adaptation strategies to climate change and the impacts of the adaptation strategies on maize productivity and household food security in southern Mali. Farmers use adaptation strategies such as organic fertilizers, changing planting dates and growing of short duration maize varieties to mitigate against the negative effects of climate change. We find that farmer experience, number of livestock owned, off-farm employment, access to credit, farmer association and technical training exert positive effects on the use of planting short-duration maize varieties as an adaptation strategy, while distance to the farm shows a negative effect. We observe that household size, experience in maize farming, number of livestock owned and technical training positively influence farmers to change planting dates as an adaptation strategy. The use of organic fertilizers and short-duration maize varieties promote maize productivity and food security. We conclude that building farmers’ adaptive capacity tends to reduce their vulnerability to climate change by increasing crop yields and food security.
    Description: CGIAR Fund
    Keywords: ddc:304.28 ; Adaptation strategies ; Climate change ; Environmental change ; Food security ; Maize yield ; Mali
    Language: English
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2023-06-12
    Description: With global action being outpaced by climate change impacts, communities in climate-vulnerable countries are at increased risk of incurring climate-induced losses and damages. In the last few years, disasters from extreme weather events such as typhoons have increased and have breached records, with typhoon Haiyan being the strongest ever typhoon to make landfall. Such an event solicited global compassion and altruism where Canada and the USA, apart from doling out traditional humanitarian aid, also offered immigration relief opportunities to typhoon Haiyan victims who have familial connections to their residents. Drawing from these immigration relief interventions, this paper uses a sociopolitical approach in proposing a climate humanitarian visa that would be offered to climate change victims on the basis of transnational family networks and skilled labor. Noting that several countries such as in Europe have demographic deficits and labor shortages, such a scheme would benefit both climate change victims and receiving countries. To counter the risk of selective compassion against economically trapped populations, potential receiving countries could provide skills upgrading geared toward addressing their labor shortages through their existing development programs. While migration is only one strategy in a spectrum of responses to climate change impacts, a climate humanitarian visa could provide climate change victims a legal choice for mobility while invoking altruism, hospitality, and compassion from potential receiving countries, whether or not they historically cause climate change.
    Description: Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn (1040)
    Keywords: ddc:304.28 ; Climate change ; Extreme weather events ; Emigration ; Displacement ; UNFCCC
    Language: English
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2023-06-12
    Description: While climate change has become a salient political and social issue in Western societies, we know relatively little about how these societies will react to one of the potentially important consequences of climate change: increasing migration flows. By means of a representative online survey in Germany, this paper therefore investigates for the very first time to what extent citizens in industrialized societies are willing to accept climate change migrants, especially in comparison with other groups of migrants and refugees, and the circumstances and principles under which they would accept them. The findings show that climate change migrants receive high support levels comparable with those enjoyed by political refugees (migrants who need special protection) and that contrast with attitudes towards economic migrants (who are often not seen as in need of special protection). We also see that people are more likely to accept justifications for taking climate change migrants when they realize that the expected number of migrants is relatively low. While arguments about morality, corrective justice, and a country’s capacity lead to similar acceptance rates in general, the latter argument plays a more important role for highly educated people and non-environmentalists than the former two. The findings of this study allow us to better prepare for potential conflicts that might emerge with increasing migration flows caused by climate change.
    Description: University of Bamberg
    Keywords: ddc:304.28 ; Climate change ; Migration ; Prejudices
    Language: English
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2023-06-12
    Description: As one of the lowest-lying island nation states in the world, the Republic of the Marshall Islands is vulnerable to sea level rise, flooding and the associated impacts on soil and water salinity. Persistent drought is further affecting agricultural production and access to drinking water, and heat stress is increasingly common. The number of Marshallese people residing in the USA has increased rapidly from 6650 in 2000 to an estimated 30,000 in 2018. While we know that climate change is already affecting the Marshall Islands and that there are significant migration flows, we do not know to what extent people already migrate because of climate change. This paper addresses this gap and presents findings from interdisciplinary fieldwork in the Marshall Islands and destination areas in the USA. The research team conducted a survey (N = 278), focus group discussions, expert interviews and a geo-spatial analysis of flood extent and migration rates to study the relationship between climatic events, ecosystem services and migration. The results show that respondents primarily cite education, health care, work and family visits as migration drivers, and only few mention climate impacts or environmental change. However, respondents do identify impacts of climate change on their livelihoods, health and safety, and the study finds significant correlations between climate impacts, trends in ecosystem services and migration propensities at household level. Furthermore, 62% of Marshallese respondents in the USA indicated that climate change affects their decision to return to Marshall Islands in the future.
    Description: Pacific Islands Climate Adaptation Center
    Description: Pacific Research and Integrated Science Assessments Program
    Keywords: ddc:304.28 ; Climate change ; Migration ; Ecosystem services ; Sea level rise ; Drought ; Pacific
    Language: English
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2022-10-27
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Gewirtzman, J., Tang, J., Melillo, J. M., Werner, W. J., Kurtz, A. C., Fulweiler, R. W., & Carey, J. C. Soil warming accelerates biogeochemical silica cycling in a temperate forest. Frontiers in Plant Science, 10, (2019): 1097, doi:10.3389/fpls.2019.01097.
    Description: Biological cycling of silica plays an important role in terrestrial primary production. Soil warming stemming from climate change can alter the cycling of elements, such as carbon and nitrogen, in forested ecosystems. However, the effects of soil warming on the biogeochemical cycle of silica in forested ecosystems remain unexplored. Here we examine long-term forest silica cycling under ambient and warmed conditions over a 15-year period of experimental soil warming at Harvard Forest (Petersham, MA). Specifically, we measured silica concentrations in organic and mineral soils, and in the foliage and litter of two dominant species (Acer rubrum and Quercus rubra), in a large (30 × 30 m) heated plot and an adjacent control plot (30 × 30 m). In 2016, we also examined effects of heating on dissolved silica in the soil solution, and conducted a litter decomposition experiment using four tree species (Acer rubrum, Quercus rubra, Betula lenta, Tsuga canadensis) to examine effects of warming on the release of biogenic silica (BSi) from plants to soils. We find that tree foliage maintained constant silica concentrations in the control and warmed plots, which, coupled with productivity enhancements under warming, led to an increase in total plant silica uptake. We also find that warming drove an acceleration in the release of silica from decaying litter in three of the four species we examined, and a substantial increase in the silica dissolved in soil solution. However, we observe no changes in soil BSi stocks with warming. Together, our data indicate that warming increases the magnitude of silica uptake by vegetation and accelerates the internal cycling of silica in in temperate forests, with possible, and yet unresolved, effects on the delivery of silica from terrestrial to marine systems.
    Description: This research was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF PLR-1417763 to JT), the Geological Society of America (Stephen G. Pollock Undergraduate Research Grant to JG), the Institute at Brown for Environment and Society, and the Marine Biological Laboratory. Sample analysis and Fulweiler’s involvement were supported by Boston University and a Bullard Fellowship from Harvard University. The soil warming experiment was supported by the National Science Foundation (DEB-0620443) and Department of Energy (DE-FC02-06-ER641577 and DE-SC0005421).
    Keywords: Silica ; Climate change ; Soil ; Warming ; Phytoliths ; Plants ; Biogeochemistry
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Turk, D., Wang, H., Hu, X., Gledhill, D. K., Wang, Z. A., Jiang, L., & Cai, W. Time of Emergence of surface ocean carbon dioxide trends in the North American coastal margins in support of ocean acidification observing system design. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, (2019):91, doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00091.
    Description: Time of Emergence (ToE) is the time when a signal emerges from the noise of natural variability. Commonly used in climate science for the detection of anthropogenic forcing, this concept has recently been applied to geochemical variables, to assess the emerging times of anthropogenic ocean acidification (OA), mostly in the open ocean using global climate and Earth System Models. Yet studies of OA variables are scarce within costal margins, due to limited multidecadal time-series observations of carbon parameters. ToE provides important information for decision making regarding the strategic configuration of observing assets, to ensure they are optimally positioned either for signal detection and/or process elicitation and to identify the most suitable variables in discerning OA-related changes. Herein, we present a short overview of ToE estimates on an OA variable, CO2 fugacity f(CO2,sw), in the North American ocean margins, using coastal data from the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) V5. ToE suggests an average theoretical timeframe for an OA signal to emerge, of 23(±13) years, but with considerable spatial variability. Most coastal areas are experiencing additional secular and/or multi-decadal forcing(s) that modifies the OA signal, and such forcing may not be sufficiently resolved by current observations. We provide recommendations, which will help scientists and decision makers design and implement OA monitoring systems in the next decade, to address the objectives of OceanObs19 (http://www.oceanobs19.net) in support of the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021–2030) (https://en.unesco.org/ocean-decade) and the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14.3 (https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg14) target to “Minimize and address the impacts of OA.”
    Description: HW was partially supported by an NSF grant (OCE#1654232) while being a research associate at TAMUCC.
    Keywords: Ocean acidification ; CO2 fugacity ; Time of emergence ; Climate change ; Novel statistical approaches ; Observing system optimization ; Decision making tool
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Palmer, M. D., Durack, P. J., Paz Chidichimo, M., Church, J. A., Cravatte, S., Hill, K., Johannessen, J. A., Karstensen, J., Lee, T., Legler, D., Mazloff, M., Oka, E., Purkey, S., Rabe, B., Sallee, J., Sloyan, B. M., Speich, S., von Schuckmann, K., Willis, J., & Wijffels, S. Adequacy of the ocean observation system for quantifying regional heat and freshwater storage and change. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, (2019): 16, doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00416.
    Description: Considerable advances in the global ocean observing system over the last two decades offers an opportunity to provide more quantitative information on changes in heat and freshwater storage. Variations in these storage terms can arise through internal variability and also the response of the ocean to anthropogenic climate change. Disentangling these competing influences on the regional patterns of change and elucidating their governing processes remains an outstanding scientific challenge. This challenge is compounded by instrumental and sampling uncertainties. The combined use of ocean observations and model simulations is the most viable method to assess the forced signal from noise and ascertain the primary drivers of variability and change. Moreover, this approach offers the potential for improved seasonal-to-decadal predictions and the possibility to develop powerful multi-variate constraints on climate model future projections. Regional heat storage changes dominate the steric contribution to sea level rise over most of the ocean and are vital to understanding both global and regional heat budgets. Variations in regional freshwater storage are particularly relevant to our understanding of changes in the hydrological cycle and can potentially be used to verify local ocean mass addition from terrestrial and cryospheric systems associated with contemporary sea level rise. This White Paper will examine the ability of the current ocean observing system to quantify changes in regional heat and freshwater storage. In particular we will seek to answer the question: What time and space scales are currently resolved in different regions of the global oceans? In light of some of the key scientific questions, we will discuss the requirements for measurement accuracy, sampling, and coverage as well as the synergies that can be leveraged by more comprehensively analyzing the multi-variable arrays provided by the integrated observing system.
    Description: MP was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by the BEIS and Defra, and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program under grant Agreement No. 633211 (AtlantOS). The work of PD was prepared the by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344 and is a contribution to the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Climate and Environmental Sciences Division, Regional and Global Modeling and Analysis Program. LLNL Release number: LLNL-JRNL-761158. BS and JC was partially supported by the Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, a joint research center between the QNLM and the CSIRO. BS was also supported by the Australian Government Department of the Environment and CSIRO through the National Environmental Science Program. SC was supported by the IRD and by the French national program LEFE/INSU. SC thanks W. Kessler for suggestions concerning Figure 6. BR was supported by the German Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar-und Meeresforschung (AWI). J-BS was supported by the CNRS/INSU and the Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program under Grant Agreement 637770. SS was supported by the French Institutions ENS, LMD, IPSL, and CNRS/INSU. The work of JW was performed in part at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
    Keywords: Heat content ; Freshwater content ; Salinity ; Temperature ; Ocean observing system ; Climate change ; Climate variability ; Observing system design
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2014. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Frontiers in Microbiology 5 (2014): 647, doi:10.3389/fmicb.2014.00647.
    Description: The Southern Ocean is currently subject to intense investigations, mainly related to its importance for global biogeochemical cycles and its alarming rate of warming in response to climate change. Microbes play an essential role in the functioning of this ecosystem and are the main drivers of the biogeochemical cycling of elements. Yet, the diversity and abundance of microorganisms in this system remain poorly studied, in particular with regards to changes along environmental gradients. Here, we used amplicon sequencing of 16S rRNA gene tags using primers covering both Bacteria and Archaea to assess the composition and diversity of the microbial communities from four sampling depths (surface, the maximum and minimum of the oxygen concentration, and near the seafloor) at 10 oceanographic stations located in Bransfield Strait [northwest of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP)] and near the sea ice edge (north of the AP). Samples collected near the seafloor and at the oxygen minimum exhibited a higher diversity than those from the surface and oxygen maximum for both bacterial and archaeal communities. The main taxonomic groups identified below 100 m were Thaumarchaeota, Euryarchaeota and Proteobacteria (Gamma-, Delta-, Beta-, and Alphaproteobacteria), whereas in the mixed layer above 100 m Bacteroidetes and Proteobacteria (mainly Alpha- and Gammaproteobacteria) were found to be dominant. A combination of environmental factors seems to influence the microbial community composition. Our results help to understand how the dynamic seascape of the Southern Ocean shapes the microbial community composition and set a baseline for upcoming studies to evaluate the response of this ecosystem to future changes.
    Description: This work was supported by the Brazilian National Counsel of Technological and Scientific Development (Polar Canion CNPq 556848/2009-8, ProOasis CNPq 565040/2010-3, Interbiota CNPq 407889/2013-2 and INCT-MAR-COI). Alex Enrich-Prast received a CNPq Productivity fellowship. Camila N. Signori was supported by a WHOI Mary Sears Visitor Award (for the microbial community analyses) and by the Brazilian Federal Agency for Support and Evaluation of Graduate Education (CAPES) for the “Doctorate Sandwich” scholarship (n. 18835/12-0).
    Keywords: Antarctica ; Pyrosequencing ; Microbial community structure ; Environmental factors ; Microbial oceanography ; Climate change
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Frontiers in Microbiology 6 (2015): 104, doi:10.3389/fmicb.2015.00104.
    Description: Soil microbes are major drivers of soil carbon cycling, yet we lack an understanding of how climate warming will affect microbial communities. Three ongoing field studies at the Harvard Forest Long-term Ecological Research (LTER) site (Petersham, MA) have warmed soils 5°C above ambient temperatures for 5, 8, and 20 years. We used this chronosequence to test the hypothesis that soil microbial communities have changed in response to chronic warming. Bacterial community composition was studied using Illumina sequencing of the 16S ribosomal RNA gene, and bacterial and fungal abundance were assessed using quantitative PCR. Only the 20-year warmed site exhibited significant change in bacterial community structure in the organic soil horizon, with no significant changes in the mineral soil. The dominant taxa, abundant at 0.1% or greater, represented 0.3% of the richness but nearly 50% of the observations (sequences). Individual members of the Actinobacteria, Alphaproteobacteria and Acidobacteria showed strong warming responses, with one Actinomycete decreasing from 4.5 to 1% relative abundance with warming. Ribosomal RNA copy number can obfuscate community profiles, but is also correlated with maximum growth rate or trophic strategy among bacteria. Ribosomal RNA copy number correction did not affect community profiles, but rRNA copy number was significantly decreased in warming plots compared to controls. Increased bacterial evenness, shifting beta diversity, decreased fungal abundance and increased abundance of bacteria with low rRNA operon copy number, including Alphaproteobacteria and Acidobacteria, together suggest that more or alternative niche space is being created over the course of long-term warming.
    Description: This work was supported by funding from the University of Massachusetts Amherst to DeAngelis and the National Science Foundation Long-term Ecological Research (LTER) Program.
    Keywords: Climate change ; Microbial ecology ; Ribosomal RNA ; rrn operon copy number ; Trophic strategy
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2012. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 2 (2012): 553, doi:10.1038/srep00553.
    Description: Sea surface temperature imagery, satellite altimetry, and a surface drifter track reveal an unusual tilt in the Gulf Stream path that brought the Gulf Stream to 39.9°N near the Middle Atlantic Bight shelfbreak—200 km north of its mean position—in October 2011, while a large meander brought Gulf Stream water within 12 km of the shelfbreak in December 2011. Near-bottom temperature measurements from lobster traps on the outer continental shelf south of New England show distinct warming events (temperature increases exceeding 6°C) in November and December 2011. Moored profiler measurements over the continental slope show high salinities and temperatures, suggesting that the warm water on the continental shelf originated in the Gulf Stream. The combination of unusual water properties over the shelf and slope in late fall and the subsequent mild winter may affect seasonal stratification and habitat selection for marine life over the continental shelf in 2012.
    Description: Profiler data were made available by the Ocean Observatory Initiative (OOI) during the construction phase of the project. The OOI is funded by the National Science Foundation and managed by the Consortium for Ocean Leadership. Drifter data were provided by Tim Shaw and David Calhoun at Cape Fear Community College.GGGwas supported by NSFGrant OCE-1129125. RET was supported by the Postdoctoral Scholar Program at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, with funding provided by the Cooperative Institute for the North Atlantic Region. MA was supported by the Penzance Endowed Fund in Support of Assistant Scientists.
    Keywords: Ecology ; Climate change ; Atmospheric science ; Oceanography
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