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  • Climate change  (34)
  • American Geophysical Union  (19)
  • John Wiley & Sons  (15)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 113 (2008): C03019, doi:10.1029/2007JC004153.
    Description: Estimates of temporal trends in oceanic anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) rely on the ability of empirical methods to remove the large natural variability of the ocean carbon system. A coupled carbon-climate model is used to evaluate these empirical methods. Both the ΔC* and multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques reproduce the predicted increase in dissolved inorganic carbon for the majority of the ocean and have similar average percent errors for decadal differences (24.1% and 25.5%, respectively). However, this study identifies several regions where these methods may introduce errors. Of particular note are mode and deep water formation regions, where changes in air-sea disequilibrium and structure in the MLR residuals introduce errors. These results have significant implications for decadal repeat hydrography programs, indicating the need for subannual sampling in certain regions of the oceans in order to better constrain the natural variability in the system and to robustly estimate the intrusion of anthropogenic CO2.
    Description: We would like to acknowledge funding from NSF (OCE02-23869), NCAR, the WHOI Ocean Climate Institute, a Linden Earth Systems Graduate Fellowship (MIT), and a National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship. NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. R.W. is supported by the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research at NOAA.
    Keywords: Carbon dioxide ; Ocean carbon sink ; Climate change
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 25 (2011): GB3022, doi:10.1029/2010GB003892.
    Description: The North Atlantic Ocean accounts for about 25% of the global oceanic anthropogenic carbon sink. This basin experiences significant interannual variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A suite of biogeochemical model simulations is used to analyze the impact of interannual variability on the uptake and storage of contemporary and anthropogenic carbon (Canthro) in the North Atlantic Ocean. Greater winter mixing during positive NAO years results in increased mode water formation and subsequent increases in subtropical and subpolar Canthro inventories. Our analysis suggests that changes in mode water Canthro inventories are primarily due to changes in water mass volumes driven by variations in water mass transformation rates rather than local air-sea CO2 exchange. This suggests that a significant portion of anthropogenic carbon found in the ocean interior may be derived from surface waters advected into water formation regions rather than from local gas exchange. Therefore, changes in climate modes, such as the NAO, may alter the residence time of anthropogenic carbon in the ocean by altering the rate of water mass transformation. In addition, interannual variability in Canthro storage increases the difficulty of Canthro detection and attribution through hydrographic observations, which are limited by sparse sampling of subsurface waters in time and space.
    Description: We would like to acknowledge funding from the NOAA Climate Program under the Office of Climate Observations and Global Carbon Cycle Program (NOAA‐NA07OAR4310098), NSF (OCE‐0623034), NCAR, the WHOI Ocean Climate Institute, a National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship and an Environmental Protection Agency STAR graduate fellowship. NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.
    Keywords: North Atlantic Oscillation ; Anthropogenic carbon ; Carbon cycle ; Climate change ; Global climate model ; Mode waters
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ecology and Evolution 7 (2017): 2449–2460, doi:10.1002/ece3.2863.
    Description: Rapid environmental change at high latitudes is predicted to greatly alter the diversity, structure, and function of plant communities, resulting in changes in the pools and fluxes of nutrients. In Arctic tundra, increased nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) availability accompanying warming is known to impact plant diversity and ecosystem function; however, to date, most studies examining Arctic nutrient enrichment focus on the impact of relatively large (〉25x estimated naturally occurring N enrichment) doses of nutrients on plant community composition and net primary productivity. To understand the impacts of Arctic nutrient enrichment, we examined plant community composition and the capacity for ecosystem function (net ecosystem exchange, ecosystem respiration, and gross primary production) across a gradient of experimental N and P addition expected to more closely approximate warming-induced fertilization. In addition, we compared our measured ecosystem CO2 flux data to a widely used Arctic ecosystem exchange model to investigate the ability to predict the capacity for CO2 exchange with nutrient addition. We observed declines in abundance-weighted plant diversity at low levels of nutrient enrichment, but species richness and the capacity for ecosystem carbon uptake did not change until the highest level of fertilization. When we compared our measured data to the model, we found that the model explained roughly 30%–50% of the variance in the observed data, depending on the flux variable, and the relationship weakened at high levels of enrichment. Our results suggest that while a relatively small amount of nutrient enrichment impacts plant diversity, only relatively large levels of fertilization—over an order of magnitude or more than warming-induced rates—significantly alter the capacity for tundra CO2 exchange. Overall, our findings highlight the value of measuring and modeling the impacts of a nutrient enrichment gradient, as warming-related nutrient availability may impact ecosystems differently than single-level fertilization experiments.
    Description: NASA Terrestrial Ecology Grant Number: NNX12AK83G; National Science Foundation Division of Graduate Education Grant Number: DGE-11-44155
    Keywords: Arctic ; Climate change ; Ecosystem function ; Ecosystem respiration ; Gross primary productivity ; Net ecosystem ; CO2 exchange ; Plant diversity
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2018. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Journal of Animal Ecology 87 (2018): 906-920, doi:10.1111/1365-2656.12827.
    Description: Recent studies unravelled the effect of climate changes on populations through their impact on functional traits and demographic rates in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but such understanding in marine ecosystems remains incomplete. Here, we evaluate the impact of the combined effects of climate and functional traits on population dynamics of a long‐lived migratory seabird breeding in the southern ocean: the black‐browed albatross (Thalassarche melanophris, BBA). We address the following prospective question: “Of all the changes in the climate and functional traits, which would produce the biggest impact on the BBA population growth rate?” We develop a structured matrix population model that includes the effect of climate and functional traits on the complete BBA life cycle. A detailed sensitivity analysis is conducted to understand the main pathway by which climate and functional trait changes affect the population growth rate. The population growth rate of BBA is driven by the combined effects of climate over various seasons and multiple functional traits with carry‐over effects across seasons on demographic processes. Changes in sea surface temperature (SST) during late winter cause the biggest changes in the population growth rate, through their effect on juvenile survival. Adults appeared to respond to changes in winter climate conditions by adapting their migratory schedule rather than by modifying their at‐sea foraging activity. However, the sensitivity of the population growth rate to SST affecting BBA migratory schedule is small. BBA foraging activity during the pre‐breeding period has the biggest impact on population growth rate among functional traits. Finally, changes in SST during the breeding season have little effect on the population growth rate. These results highlight the importance of early life histories and carry‐over effects of climate and functional traits on demographic rates across multiple seasons in population response to climate change. Robust conclusions about the roles of various phases of the life cycle and functional traits in population response to climate change rely on an understanding of the relationships of traits to demographic rates across the complete life cycle.
    Description: NSF Grant Number: OPP‐1246407; European Research Council Advanced Grant Grant Numbers: ERC‐2012‐ADG_20120314, 322989
    Keywords: Birds ; Climate change ; Foraging behaviours ; Non‐breeding season ; Phenotypic traits ; Pre‐breeding season ; Timing of breeding ; Wing length
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2006. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Water Resources Research 42 (2006): W03426, doi:10.1029/2005WR004131.
    Description: We assessed the effects of historical (1931-1998) changes in both land-use and climate on the water budget of a rapidly urbanizing watershed, Ipswich River basin (IRB), in northeastern Massachusetts. Water diversions and extremely low flow during summer are major issues in the IRB. Our study centers on a detailed analysis of diversions and a combined empirical/modeling treatment of evapotranspiration (ET) response to changes in climate and land-use. A detailed accounting of diversions showed that net diversions increased due to increases in water withdrawals (primarily ground water pumping) and export of sewage. Net diversions constitute a major component of runoff (20% of streamflow). Using a combination of empirical analysis and physically based modeling we related an increase in precipitation (2.7 mm/yr) and changes in other climate variables to an increase in ET (1.7 mm/yr). Simulations with a physically based water-balance model showed that the increase in ET could be attributed entirely to a change in climate, while the effect of land-use change was negligible. The land-use change effect was different from ET and runoff trends commonly associated with urbanization. We generalized these and other findings to predict future streamflow using climate change scenarios. Our study could serve as a framework for studying suburban watersheds, being the first study of a suburban watershed that addresses long-term effects of changes in both land-use and climate, and accounts for diversions and other unique aspects of suburban hydrology.
    Description: This research was partially supported by NSF grants (DEB-9726862, OCE-9726921 and OCE-0423565).
    Keywords: Water budgets ; Evapotranspiration ; Climate change ; Land-use change ; Urbanization ; Water-balance model ; Ipswich River
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems 9 (2008): Q09V10, doi:10.1029/2008GC002043.
    Description: Patterns of overwash deposition observed within back-barrier sediment archives can indicate past changes in tropical cyclone activity; however, it is necessary to evaluate the significance of observed trends in the context of the full range of variability under modern climate conditions. Here we present a method for assessing the statistical significance of patterns observed within a sedimentary hurricane-overwash reconstruction. To alleviate restrictions associated with the limited number of historical hurricanes affecting a specific site, we apply a recently published technique for generating a large number of synthetic storms using a coupled ocean-atmosphere hurricane model set to simulate modern climatology. Thousands of overwash records are generated for a site using a random draw of these synthetic hurricanes, a prescribed threshold for overwash, and a specified temporal resolution based on sedimentation rates observed at a particular site. As a test case we apply this Monte Carlo technique to a hurricane-induced overwash reconstruction developed from Laguna Playa Grande (LPG), a coastal lagoon located on the island of Vieques, Puerto Rico in the northeastern Caribbean. Apparent overwash rates in the LPG overwash record are observed to be four times lower between 2500 and 1000 years B.P. when compared to apparent overwash rates during the last 300 years. However, probability distributions based on Monte Carlo simulations indicate that as much as 65% of this drop can be explained by a reduction in the temporal resolution for older sediments due to a decrease in sedimentation rates. Periods of no apparent overwash activity at LPG between 2500 and 3600 years B.P. and 500–1000 years B.P. are exceptionally long and are unlikely to occur (above 99% confidence) under the current climate conditions. In addition, breaks in activity are difficult to produce even when the hurricane model is forced to a constant El Niño state. Results from this study continue to support the interpretation that the western North Atlantic has exhibited significant changes in hurricane climatology over the last 5500 years.
    Description: Funding for this research was provided by the Earth Systems History Program of the National Science Foundation, Risk Prediction Initiative, National Geographic Society, Coastal Ocean Institute at WHOI, and the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Endowed Fund for Innovative Research.
    Keywords: Tropical cyclones ; Paleotempestology ; Paleoclimate ; Holocene ; Climate change ; Sedimentology
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 113 (2008): G02026, doi:10.1029/2007JG000470.
    Description: Permafrost is a defining characteristic of the Arctic environment. However, climate warming is thawing permafrost in many areas leading to failures in soil structure called thermokarst. An extensive survey of a 600 km2 area in and around the Toolik Lake Natural Research Area (TLNRA) revealed at least 34 thermokarst features, two thirds of which were new since ∼1980 when a high resolution aerial survey of the area was done. Most of these thermokarst features were associated with headwater streams or lakes. We have measured significantly increased sediment and nutrient loading from thermokarst features to streams in two well-studied locations near the TLNRA. One small thermokarst gully that formed in 2003 on the Toolik River in a 0.9 km2 subcatchment delivered more sediment to the river than is normally delivered in 18 years from 132 km2 in the adjacent upper Kuparuk River basin (a long-term monitoring reference site). Ammonium, nitrate, and phosphate concentrations downstream from a thermokarst feature on Imnavait Creek increased significantly compared to upstream reference concentrations and the increased concentrations persisted over the period of sampling (1999–2005). The downstream concentrations were similar to those we have used in a long-term experimental manipulation of the Kuparuk River and that have significantly altered the structure and function of that river. A subsampling of other thermokarst features from the extensive regional survey showed that concentrations of ammonium, nitrate, and phosphate were always higher downstream of the thermokarst features. Our previous research has shown that even minor increases in nutrient loading stimulate primary and secondary production. However, increased sediment loading could interfere with benthic communities and change the responses to increased nutrient delivery. Although the terrestrial area impacted by thermokarsts is limited, the aquatic habitat altered by these failures can be extensive. If warming in the Arctic foothills accelerates thermokarst formation, there may be substantial and wide-spread impacts on arctic stream ecosystems that are currently poorly understood.
    Description: The results presented in this report are based upon work supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation under grants to the Arctic Hyporheic project (OPP- 0327440) and the Arctic Long-Term Ecological Research Program (DEB- 9810222).
    Keywords: Arctic ; Climate change ; Streams ; Ecosystem dynamics ; Sediment ; Thermokarst ; Water quality
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2003. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 108, C12 (2003): 3384, doi:10.1029/2002JC001347.
    Description: The decade of the 1990s was the warmest decade of the last century, while the year 1998 was the warmest year ever observed by modern techniques, with 9 out of 12 months of the year being the warmest months. Satellite ice cover and surface temperature data, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (wind), and ocean hydrographic data are examined to gain insights into this warming phenomenon. Areas of ice-free water in both western and eastern regions of the Arctic are found to have followed a cyclical pattern with approximately decadal period but with a lag of about 3 years between the eastern and western regions. The pattern was interrupted by unusually large anomalies in 1993 and 1998 in the western region and in 1995 in the eastern region. The area of open water in 1998 was the largest ever observed in the western region and occurred concurrently with large surface temperature anomalies in the area and adjacent regions. This also occurred at a time when the atmospheric circulation changed from predominantly cyclonic in 1996 to anticyclonic in 1997 and 1998. Detailed hydrographic measurements over the same general area in April 1996 and April 1997 indicate a warming and significant freshening in the top layer of the ocean, suggesting increases in ice melt and/or river runoff. Continuous ocean temperature and salinity data from ocean buoys at depths of 8, 45, and 75 m confirm these results and show large interannual changes during the 1996–1998 period. Surface temperature data show a general warming in the region that is highly correlated with observed decline in summer sea ice, while hydrographic data suggest that in 1997 and 1998, the upper part of the ocean was unusually fresh and warm compared to available data between 1956 and 1996.
    Description: Deployments of the IOEB were supported by the Japanese Marine Science and Technology Center (JAMSTEC).
    Keywords: Arctic Sea ice ; Climate change ; Surface temperature ; Wind ; Buoy ; Hydrography
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (2007): D22S09, doi:10.1029/2007JD008521.
    Description: We investigated the potential effects of elevated ozone (O3) along with climate variability, increasing CO2, and land use change on net primary productivity (NPP) and carbon storage in China's terrestrial ecosystems for the period 1961–2000 with a process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) forced by the gridded data of historical tropospheric O3 and other environmental factors. The simulated results showed that elevated O3 could result in a mean 4.5% reduction in NPP and 0.9% reduction in total carbon storage nationwide from 1961 to 2000. The reduction of carbon storage varied from 0.1 Tg C to 312 Tg C (a decreased rate ranging from 0.2% to 6.9%) among plant functional types. The effects of tropospheric O3 on NPP were strongest in east-central China. Significant reductions in NPP occurred in northeastern and central China where a large proportion of cropland is distributed. The O3 effects on carbon fluxes and storage are dependent upon other environmental factors. Therefore direct and indirect effects of O3, as well as interactive effects with other environmental factors, should be taken into account in order to accurately assess the regional carbon budget in China. The results showed that the adverse influences of increasing O3 concentration across China on NPP could be an important disturbance factor on carbon storage in the near future, and the improvement of air quality in China could enhance the capability of China's terrestrial ecosystems to sequester more atmospheric CO2. Our estimation of O3 impacts on NPP and carbon storage in China, however, must be used with caution because of the limitation of historical tropospheric O3 data and other uncertainties associated with model parameters and field experiments.
    Description: This research is funded by NASA Interdisciplinary Science Program (NNG04GM39C).
    Keywords: Air pollution ; Carbon storage ; China ; Climate change ; Net primary productivity ; Tropospheric ozone
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 39 (2012): L15501, doi:10.1029/2012GL052222.
    Description: Starting in Late Pleistocene time (~19 ka), sea level rise inundated coastal zones worldwide. On some parts of the present-day circum-Arctic continental shelf, this led to flooding and thawing of formerly subaerial permafrost and probable dissociation of associated gas hydrates. Relict permafrost has never been systematically mapped along the 700-km-long U.S. Beaufort Sea continental shelf and is often assumed to extend to ~120 m water depth, the approximate amount of sea level rise since the Late Pleistocene. Here, 5,000 km of multichannel seismic (MCS) data acquired between 1977 and 1992 were examined for high-velocity (〉2.3 km s−1) refractions consistent with ice-bearing, coarse-grained sediments. Permafrost refractions were identified along 〈5% of the tracklines at depths of ~5 to 470 m below the seafloor. The resulting map reveals the minimum extent of subsea ice-bearing permafrost, which does not extend seaward of 30 km offshore or beyond the 20 m isobath.
    Description: This research was sponsored by DOE-USGS Interagency Agreement DE-FE0002911. L.B. was supported by a DOE NETL/NRC Methane Hydrate Fellowship under DE-FC26-05NT42248.
    Keywords: Beaufort Sea ; Climate change ; Methane hydrates ; Refraction ; Sea level ; Subsea permafrost
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