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  • 1
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    Trade Liberalization versus Climate Change Policy for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Agriculture: Some Insights from Norway (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-08-11
    Description: Using a mathematical programming model of Norwegian agriculture, we explore interconnections between trade liberalization and reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We show that the Doha Round proposals for a new agreement on agriculture through the World Trade Organization would not generate significant reductions in emissions. Further trade liberalization would reduce emissions by cutting agricultural production but would not change production methods. Imposing a carbon tax would lead both to a reduction in output and the extensification of production. In contrast, if farmers are allowed to claim a credit for carbon sequestration the effect is to intensify agricultural production.
    Keywords: F18 - Trade and Environment, Q17 - Agriculture in International Trade, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 2040-5790
    Electronic ISSN: 2040-5804
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 2
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    Temperature Changes, Household Consumption, and Internal Migration: Evidence from Tanzania (2016)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2016-07-09
    Description: Large rural-urban wage gaps observed in many developing countries are suggestive of barriers to migration that keep potential migrants in rural areas. Using long panel data spanning nearly two decades, I study the extent to which migration rates are constrained by liquidity constraints in rural Tanzania. The analysis begins by quantifying the impact of weather variation on household welfare. The results show how household consumption co-moves with temperature, rendering households vulnerable to local weather events. These temperature-induced income shocks are then found to inhibit long-term migration among men, thus preventing them from tapping into the opportunities brought about by geographical mobility.
    Keywords: O12 - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, O15 - Human Resources ; Human Development ; Income Distribution ; Migration, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming, R23 - Regional Migration ; Regional Labor Markets ; Population
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 3
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    Decomposing the Farmer's Share of the Food Dollar (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-05-12
    Description: The Canadian farm share for five crop-based products and seven livestock-based products from 1997 to 2010 is calculated using a supply chain IO analysis. Significant differences exist in farm shares across food commodities with higher farm shares for livestock products and lower farm shares for grain-based products. The decline in the Canadian farm share for food consumed at home is driven in large part by the food purchasing habits of consumers. This paper also addresses the hypothesis that the decline in the Canadian farm share could be partially driven by rising input costs in post-farmgate processes or rising input costs that have greater impact on downstream sectors than primary agricultural producers. Three experiments were conducted to assess the impact of an increase in the cost of corn, energy, and farm labor would have on commodity output prices, farm returns, food expenditure, and farm share. In all three cases, the overall farm share increases, albeit by a small amount, suggesting that these shocks have a larger relative impact on the prices of agricultural commodities than the prices of marketing commodities used in post-farmgate activities. A two-period comparison of these simulations shows that energy (corn and farm labour) price shocks would have had a greater (lower) impact on the farm share in 2007 than 1997.
    Keywords: Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis ; Prices, Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy
    Print ISSN: 2040-5790
    Electronic ISSN: 2040-5804
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 4
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    Strengthening Market Linkages of Farm Households in Developing Countries (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-05-12
    Description: Farm households in developing countries generally allocate a major portion of their resources to staple food production, mainly for self-consumption. Hence, many of them are more or less delinked from the market. It is well recognized, however, that market participation is crucial for farm households to ensure a flow of cash income, leading to poverty alleviation and improved livelihoods. Thus, it is meaningful to understand what factors affect farm households' decision to sell food crops, which is important for strengthening their linkages with markets. The empirical literature on impacts of market linkages has seldom focused on the determinants of market participation. Using rice farm households in Bangladesh and applying a double-hurdle model, this article demonstrates that the provision of general education and the development of agricultural infrastructure such as irrigation facilities can strengthen the market linkages of farm households by enhancing their marketable surplus through increased production. By contrast, rainfall beyond the optimum level, drought spells, and flood incidences can weaken market linkages by reducing their marketable surplus through decreased production. Specific policies such as investment in general education are drawn up based on the findings.
    Keywords: C24 - Truncated and Censored Models, D01 - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles, D13 - Household Production and Intrahousehold Allocation, Q12 - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets, Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness
    Print ISSN: 2040-5790
    Electronic ISSN: 2040-5804
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 5
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    Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-04-14
    Description: Our article contributes to the emerging micro-level strand of the literature on the link between local variations in weather shocks and conflicts by focusing on a pixel-level analysis for North and South Sudan between 1997 and 2009. Temperature anomalies are found to strongly affect the risk of conflict, whereas the risk is expected to magnify in a range of 24–31% in the future under a median scenario. Our analysis also sheds light on the competition over natural resources, in particular water, as the main driver of such relationship in a region where pastoralism constitutes the dominant livelihood.
    Keywords: D74 - Conflict ; Conflict Resolution ; Alliances, O13 - Agriculture ; Natural Resources ; Energy ; Environment ; Other Primary Products, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming, R11 - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, and Changes
    Print ISSN: 1468-2702
    Electronic ISSN: 1468-2710
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 6
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    Dealing with Uncertainty in Agent-Based Simulation: Farm-Level Modeling of Adaptation to Climate Change in Southwest Germany (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-04-18
    Description: Climate change will most likely confront agricultural producers with natural, economic, and political conditions that have not previously been observed and are largely uncertain. As a consequence, extrapolation from past data reaches its limits, and a process-based analysis of farmer adaptation is required. Simulation of changes in crop yields using crop growth models is a first step in that direction. However, changes in crop yields are only one pathway through which climate change affects agricultural production. A meaningful process-based analysis of farmer adaptation requires a whole-farm analysis at the farm level. We use a highly disaggregated mathematical programming model to analyze farm-level climate change adaptation for a mountainous area in southwest Germany. Regional-level results are obtained by simulating each full-time farm holding in the study area. We address parameter uncertainty and model underdetermination using a cautious calibration approach and a comprehensive uncertainty analysis. We deal with the resulting computational burden using efficient experimental designs and high-performance computing. We show that in our study area, shifted crop management time slots can have potentially significant effects on agricultural supply, incomes, and various policy objectives promoted under German and European environmental policy schemes. The simulated effects are robust against model uncertainty and underline the importance of a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts beyond merely looking at crop yield changes. Our simulations demonstrate how farm-level models can contribute to a process-based analysis of climate change adaptation if they are embedded into a systematic framework for treating inherent model uncertainty.
    Keywords: C61 - Optimization Techniques ; Programming Models ; Dynamic Analysis, C63 - Computational Techniques, Q12 - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 7
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    Production standards, competition and vertical relationship (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-12-29
    Description: This article investigates the collective choice of production standards by farmer and processor groups within a vertical food supply chain, taking into account their competition behaviours. We develop a general model to analyse the strategic motive of using standards to limit supply and shift rents between farmers and processors in the vertical chain. We find that a stringent standard can raise farmers' profit, but at the expense of processors. This is the case when the standard affects more variable costs than fixed cost of production, when the demand for the final product is inelastic, and when processors have a high degree of oligopoly power.
    Keywords: L13 - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets, Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness
    Print ISSN: 0165-1587
    Electronic ISSN: 1464-3618
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 8
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    Irrigation Decisions for Major West Coast Crops: Water Scarcity and Climatic Determinants (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-12-13
    Description: This article uses the 2007 Farm and Ranch Irrigation Survey database developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to assess the impact of water scarcity and climate on irrigation decisions for producers of specialty crops, wheat, and forage crops. We estimate an irrigation management model for major crops in the West Coast (California, Oregon, and Washington), which includes a farm-level equation of irrigated share and crop-specific equations of technology adoption and water application rate (orchard/vineyard, vegetable, wheat, alfalfa, hay, and pasture). We find that economic and physical water scarcity, climate, and extreme weather, such as frost, extreme heat, and drought, significantly impact producers’ irrigation decisions. Producers use sprinkler technologies or additional water applications to mitigate risk of crop damage from extreme weather. Water application rates are least responsive to surface water cost or groundwater well depth for producers of orchard/vineyard. Water supply institutions influence producers’ irrigation decisions. Producers who receive water from federal agencies use higher water application rates and are less likely to adopt water-saving irrigation technologies for some crops. Institutional arrangements, including access to distinct water sources (surface or ground) and whether surface water cost is fee based, also affect the responsiveness of water application rates to changes in surface water cost. The analysis provides valuable information about how producers in irrigated agricultural production systems would respond and adapt to water pricing policies and climate change.
    Keywords: Q12 - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets, Q15 - Land Ownership and Tenure ; Land Reform ; Land Use ; Irrigation, Q16 - R&D ; Agricultural Technology ; Agricultural Extension Services, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 9
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    A Framework to Analyze the Performance of Thinly Traded Agricultural Commodity Markets (2016)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-03-31
    Description: Thinly traded agricultural commodity markets are a concern for farmers and policy markers due to the belief that prices in these settings will be highly volatile, subject to manipulation, and incapable of efficiently allocating resources. Analysis of thin agricultural markets has to date been impeded by lack of an appropriate analytical framework from which to study their behavior. In this paper we propose the modern agricultural markets (MAM) framework as an appropriate paradigm through which to view and evaluate thin markets. We argue that thinly traded markets that meet key conditions required for a MAM will generate maximum economic surplus and enable farmers to earn at least a competitive return on their investments. In the absence of these conditions, however, the concerns known as the "thin market problem" have validity. We set forth the MAM framework, interpret it in a thin-market context, and conduct several brief case studies of thin markets to illustrate use of the approach and draw some key inferences about these markets' behavior. The analysis indicates that appropriate government policies directed to thin markets are those that facilitate their convergence to MAM status, but in reality key policies under recent consideration would have the opposite effect.
    Keywords: L10 - General, Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 10
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    An Introduction to the Green Paradox: The Unintended Consequences of Climate Policies (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-07-18
    Description: How important is the Green Paradox? We address this question in three ways. First, we present a simple model explaining how announcing a future climate policy may increase carbon emissions today – the Green Paradox effect. This effect is a result of fossil fuel producers increasing their extraction today as a response to a reduction in future resource rents. Second, we examine the theoretical and empirical literature to assess whether green paradoxes are likely to occur, and if they are, whether they are big enough to be of concern for policy makers. We consider several factors that affect the existence of the green paradox, including long-term extraction costs, short-term extraction capacities, the mix of policy instruments, and potential spatial carbon leakage to countries that have no climate policy. We find that these and other factors can sometimes strengthen, but mostly weaken, the case for concern about the green paradox. Third, we identify the lessons the literature offers for policy makers. We argue that in designing climate policy, policy makers need to consider the supply side of the fossil fuel market.
    Keywords: H23 - Externalities ; Redistributive Effects ; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies, Q31 - Demand and Supply, Q38 - Government Policy, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 1750-6816
    Electronic ISSN: 1750-6824
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Political Science , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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