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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous
  • American Geophysical Union  (24)
  • Elsevier Science Limited  (21)
  • Blackwell Publishing Ltd  (3)
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  • 1
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    Morphotectonic analysis of the long-termsurface expression of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake fault (Central Italy) using airborne LiDAR data (2015)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: In this paper we present a morphotectonic study of the Paganica–San Demetrio fault system (PSDFS) responsible for the Mw6.1 April 6, 2009 earthquake (L'Aquila, Central Italy). The discrepancy observed between the length of the seismologic–geodetic modeled fault, the limited size of the primary coseismic surface ruptures and the significant morphological expression of the PSDFS stimulated a debate about the maximum rupture length of the PSDFS and its capability to generate larger magnitude events. To image the PSDFS long-term morphological expression and define its surface geometrical arrangement (length, number of fault splays and boundaries), we took advantage of a high-resolution airborne LiDAR dataset. LiDAR topography substantially increased our confidence in detecting even subtle tectonic-controlled morphologies. We define the PSDFS as a ~ 19 km-long fault system that displays a complex structural setting characterized by two different sectors: 1) the Paganica sector to the NW, with a narrow deformation zone, and 2) the San Demetrio sector to SE, where the strain is accommodated by several fault-splays dissecting a wider Quaternary basin. We also defined a first-order hierarchy among the numerous fault splays across the PSDFS. The long-term geomorphic expression of the PSDFS suggests that it ruptured also involving the whole 19 km-long structure besides rupturing only small sections, as it occurred in 2009. This suggests a variable slip behavior. Empirical relations applied to this hypothesis allow up to M 6.6 earthquakes along the PSDFS. These results have a critical impact on the seismic hazard assessment of the area when compared with a M 6.1 event as the 2009.
    Description: Published
    Description: 108-121
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Active normal faulting; Tectonic geomorphology; Airborne LiDAR; 2009 L'Aquila earthquake ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.03. Geomorphology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Stress releasemodel and proxy measures of earthquake size. Application to Italian seismogenic sources (2016)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: This study presents a series of self-correcting models that are obtained by integrating information about seismicity and fault sources in Italy. Four versions of the stress release model are analyzed, in which the evolution of the system over time is represented by the level of strain, moment, seismic energy, or energy scaled by the moment. We carry out the analysis on a regional basis by subdividing the study area into eight tectonically coherent regions. In each region, we reconstruct the seismic history and statistically evaluate the completeness of the resulting seismic catalog. Following the Bayesian paradigm, we apply Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to obtain parameter estimates and a measure of their uncertainty expressed by the simulated posterior distribution. The comparison of the four models through the Bayes factor and an information criterion provides evidence (to different degrees depending on the region) in favor of the stress release model based on the energy and the scaled energy. Therefore, among the quantities considered, this turns out to be the measure of the size of an earthquake to use in stress release models. At any instant, the time to the next event turns out to follow a Gompertz distribution, with a shape parameter that depends on time through the value of the conditional intensity at that instant. In light of this result, the issue of forecasting is tackled through both retrospective and prospective approaches. Retrospectively, the forecasting procedure is carried out on the occurrence times of the events recorded in each region, to determine whether the stress release model reproduces the observations used in the estimation procedure. Prospectively, the estimates of the time to the next event are compared with the dates of the earthquakes that occurred after the end of the learning catalog, in the 2003–2012 decade.
    Description: Italian Dipartimento della Protezione Civile in the framework of the 2007–2009 Agreement with Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), project S1: Analysis of the seismic potential in Italy for the evaluation of the seismic hazard.
    Description: Published
    Description: 147-168
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: point process ; probabilistic forecasting ; interevent time distribution ; seismogenic sources ; Bayesian inference ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    Holocene vertical deformation along the coastal sector of Mt. Etna volcano (eastern Sicily, Italy): implications on the time-space constrains of the volcano lateral sliding. (2015)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-15
    Description: A detailed survey of morphological and biological markers of paleo-shorelines has been carried out alongthe coastal sector of Mt. Etna volcano (eastern Sicily, Italy), in order to better define causes and timing ofvertical deformation. We have mapped markers of raised Holocene shorelines, which are represented bybeach rocks, wave-cut platforms, balanid, vermetid and algal rims. The timing of coastal uplift has beendetermined by radiocarbon dating of shells collected from the raised paleo-shorelines and, to correctlyassess the total amount of tectonic uplift of the coast during the Late Holocene, we have compared theelevation-age data of sampled shells to the local curve of Holocene sea-level rise. Taking into accountthe nominal elevation of the associated paleo-shorelines, an uplift rate of 2.5–3.0 mm/year has beenestimated for the last 6–7 ka. This general process of uplifting is only locally interrupted by subsidencerelated to flank sliding of the volcanic edifice, measured at docks and other manmade structures, and byacceleration along the hinge of an active anticline and at the footwall of an active fault. Based on this newdata we suggest more precise time–space constraints for the dynamics of the lower eastern flank of Mt.Etna volcano.
    Description: Published
    Description: 194-203
    Description: 1V. Storia e struttura dei sistemi vulcanici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Mt. Etna, Holocene, Paleo-shoreline, Coastal uplift, Flank instability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
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    Neotectonics and long-term seismicity in Europe and the Mediterranean region (2015)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-01-04
    Description: We present a neotectonic model of ongoing lithosphere deformation and a corresponding estimate of long-term shallow seismicity across the Africa-Eurasia plate boundary, including the eastern Atlantic, Mediterranean region, and continental Europe. GPS and stress data are absent or inadequate for the part of the study area covered by water. Thus, we opt for a dynamic model based on the stress-equilibrium equation; this approach allows us to estimate the long-term behavior of the lithosphere (given certain assumptions about its structure and physics) for both land and sea areas. We first update the existing plate model by adding five quasi-rigid plates (the Ionian Sea, Adria, Northern Greece, Central Greece, and Marmara) to constrain the deformation pattern of the study area. We use the most recent datasets to estimate the lithospheric structure. The models are evaluated in comparison with updated datasets of geodetic velocities and the most compressive horizontal principal stress azimuths. We find that the side and basal strengths drive the present-day motion of the Adria and Aegean Sea plates, whereas lithostatic pressure plays a key role in driving Anatolia. These findings provide new insights into the neotectonics of the greater Mediterranean region. Finally, the preferred model is used to estimate long-term shallow seismicity, which we retrospectively test against historical seismicity. As an alternative to reliance on incomplete geologic data or historical seismic catalogs, these neotectonic models help to forecast long-term seismicity, although requiring additional tuning before seismicity rates are used for seismic hazard purposes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 5311–5342
    Description: 1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Tectonics ; Earthquake rates ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.03. Heat flow ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.06. Rheology, friction, and structure of fault zones ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.01. Continents ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
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    Archaeological evidence for a possible first century AD earthquake in the necropolis of Abakainon (NE Sicily) (2015)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-01
    Description: The Greek necropolis of Abakainon (NE Sicily, southern Italy) was destroyed suddenly, some time after the 2nd century BC. In order to identify the destruction cause of the necropolis, we analyzed geological, geomorphological data, and site stratigraphy. Evidence on the site suggests that the observed collapse and deformation may be consistent with a seismic event. Optically Stimulated Luminescence dating constrains the age of the collapse to the 1st century AD, probably during the time-span 14e37 AD, when other nearby sites were also damaged by an earthquake, as reported by historical sources. This study contributes to a better characterization of earthquakes in the area during the first millennium AD and improves knowledge on historical seismicity in NE Sicily.
    Description: Published
    Description: 190-199
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: archaeoseismology ; historical seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
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    Geological, seismological and geodetic evidence of active thrustingand folding south of Mt. Etna (eastern Sicily): Revaluation of “seismicefficiency” of the Sicilian Basal Thrust (2016)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-12
    Description: tGeological studies and morphological analysis, compared with seismological and geodetic data, suggestthat a compressive regime currently occurs at crustal depth in the western sector of Mt. Etna, accommo-dated by shallow thrusting and folding at the front of the chain, south of the volcanic edifice. In particular,a large WSW-ENE trending anticline, interpreted as detachment fold, is growing west and north of Cata-nia city (the Catania anticline). Geological data suggest that during the last 6000 years the frontal foldhas been characterized by uplift rates of ∼6 mm/yr along the hinge, consistent with the interferometricdata (10 mm/yr) recorded in the last 20 years. Moreover, a NNW-SSE oriented axis of compression hasbeen obtained by seismological data, consistent with GPS measurements over the last 20 years whichhave revealed a shortening rate of ∼5 mm/yr along the same direction. Besides the activity related to thevolcanic feeding system, the seismic pattern under the Mt. Etna edifice can be certainly related to theregional tectonics. The compressive stress is converted into elastic accumulation and then in earthquakesalong the ramps beneath the chain, whereas on the frontal area it is accommodated by aseismic defor-mation along an incipient detachment within the clayish foredeep deposits. The high rate of shorteningat the aseismic front of the chain, suggests a greater “seismic efficiency” in correspondence of ramps atthe rear.
    Description: Published
    Description: 32-41
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Etna ; sicilian basal thrust ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
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    Slip rate depth distribution for active faults in Central Italy using numerical models (2016)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: Slip rate is a critical parameter for describing geologic and earthquake rates of known active faults. Although faults are inherently three-dimensional surfaces, the paucity of data allows for estimating only the slip rate at the ground surface and often only few values for an entire fault. These values are frequently assumed as proxies or as some average of slip rate at depth. Evidence of geological offset and single earthquake displacement, as well as mechanical requirements, show that fault slip varies significantly with depth. Slip rate should thus vary in a presumably similar way, yet these variations are rarely considered. In this work, we tackle the determination of slip rate depth distributions by applying the finite element method on a 2D vertical section, with stratification and faults, across the central Apennines, Italy. In a first step, we perform a plane-stress analysis assuming visco-elasto-plastic rheology and then search throughout a large range of values to minimize the RMS deviation between the model and the interseismic GPS velocities. Using a parametric analysis, we assess the accuracy of the best model and the sensitivity of its parameters. In a second step, we unlock the faults and let the model simulate 10 kyr of deformation to estimate the fault long-term slip rates. The overall average slip rate at depth is approximately 1.1 mm/yr for normal faults and 0.2 mm/yr for thrust faults. A maximum value of about 2 mm/yr characterizes the Avezzano fault that caused the 1915, Mw 7.0 earthquake. The slip rate depth distribution varies significantly from fault to fault and even between neighbouring faults, with maxima and minima located at different depths. We found uniform distributions only occasionally. We suggest that these findings can strongly influence the forecasting of cumulative earthquake depth distributions based on long-term fault slip rates.
    Description: Project “Abruzzo” (code: RBAP10ZC8K_ 003) funded by the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research (MIUR).
    Description: Published
    Description: 1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: slip rate ; numerical model ; fault ; rheology ; central Italy ; active tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
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    Deep reaching versus vertically restricted Quaternary normal faults: implications on seismic potential assessment in tectonically active regions. Lessons from the middle Aterno valley fault system, central Italy (2015)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-03
    Description: We investigate the Middle Aterno Valley fault system (MAVF), unknown poorly investigated seismic gap in the central Apennines, adjacent to the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake epicentral area. Geological and paleoseismological analyses revealed that the MAVF evolved through hanging wall splay nucleation, its main segment moving at 0.23-0.34 mm/year since the Middle Pleistocene; the penultimate activation event occurred between 5388-5310 B.C. and 1934-1744 B.C., the last event after 2036-1768 B.C. and just before 1st-2nd century AD. These data define hard linkage (sensu Walsh and Watterson, 1991; Peacock et al., 2000; Walsh et al., 2003, and references therein) with the contiguous Subequana Valley fault segment, able to rupture in large magnitude earthquakes (up to 6.8), that did not rupture since about two millennia. By the joint analysis of geological observations and seismological data acquired during to the 2009 seismic sequence, we derive a picture of the complex structural framework of the area comprised between the MAVF, the Paganica fault (the 2009 earthquake causative fault) and the Gran Sasso Range. This sector is affected by a dense array of few-km long, closely and regularly spaced Quaternary normal fault strands, that are considered as branches of the MAVF northern segment. Our analysis reveals that these structures are downdip confined by a decollement represented by to the presently inactive thrust sheet above thef Gran Sasso front limiting their seismogenic potential. Our study highlights the advantage of combining Quaternary geological field analysis with high resolution seismological data to fully unravel the structural setting of regions where subsequent tectonic phases took place and where structural interference plays a key role in influencing the seismotectonic context; this has also inevitably implications for accurately assessing seismic hazard of such structurally complex regions.
    Description: Published
    Description: 186–198
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Quaternary geological survey ; paleoseismology ; vertically restricted faults ; structural interference ; capable faulting ; Abruzzo ; Central Italy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
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    Earthquake-generated tsunamis in the Mediterranean Sea: scenarios of potential threats to Southern Italy (2008)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We calculated the impact on Southern Italy of a large set of tsunamis resulting from earthquakes generated by major fault zones of the Mediterranean Sea. Our approach merges updated knowledge on the regional tectonic setting and scenario-like calculations of expected tsunami impact. We selected three potential source zones located at short, intermediate and large distance from our target coastlines: the Southern Tyrrhenian thrust belt; the Tell-Atlas thrust belt; and the western Hellenic Arc. For each zone we determined a Maximum Credible Earthquake and described the geometry, kinematics and size of its associated Typical Fault. We then let the Typical Fault float along strike of its parent source zone and simulated all tsunamis it could trigger. Simulations are based on the solution of the nonlinear shallow water equations through a finite-difference technique. For each run we calculated the wave fields at desired simulation times and the maximum water elevation field, then produced travel-time maps and maximum wave-height profiles along the target coastlines. The results show a highly variable impact for tsunamis generated by the different source zones. For example, a large Hellenic Arc earthquake will produce a much higher tsunami wave (up to 5 m) than those of the other two source zones (up to 1.5 m). This implies that tsunami scenarios for Mediterranean Sea countries must necessarily be computed at the scale of the entire basin. Our work represents a pilot study for constructing a basin-wide tsunami scenario database to be used for tsunami hazard assessment and early warning.
    Description: Italian Civil Defense; Project “Development of new technologies for the protection of the Italian territory from natural hazards” funded by the Italian Ministry of University and Research
    Description: Published
    Description: B01301
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Scenari e mappe di pericolosità sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: Tsunamis ; Mediterranean Sea ; Seismotectonics ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.01. Analytical and numerical modeling ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
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    Stress interaction effect on the occurrence probability of characteristic earthquakes in Central Apennines (2008)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this study, we compute the effect of stress change due to previous historical earthquakes on the probability of occurrence of future earthquakes on neighboring faults. Following a methodology developed in the last decade, we start from the estimate of the probability of occurrence in the next 50 years for a characteristic earthquake on known seismogenic structures, based on a time-dependent renewal model. Then a physical model for the Coulomb stress change caused by previous earthquakes on these structures is applied. The influence of this stress change on the occurrence rate of characteristic earthquakes is computed, taking into account both permanent (clock advance) and temporary (rate-and-state) perturbations. We apply this method to the computation of earthquake hazard of the main seismogenic structures recognized in the Central and Southern Apennines region, for which both historical and paleoseismological data are available. This study provides the opportunity of reviewing the problems connected with the estimate of the parameters of a renewal model in case of characteristic earthquakes characterized by return times longer than the time spanned by the available catalogues and the applicability of the concept of characteristic earthquake itself. The results show that the estimated effect of earthquake interaction in this region is small compared with the uncertainties affecting the statistical model used for the basic time-dependent hazard assessment.
    Description: Published
    Description: B08313
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Scenari e mappe di pericolosità sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Stress interaction, occurrence probability, characteristic earthquakes ; 01. Atmosphere::01.02. Ionosphere::01.02.03. Forecasts ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.06. Rheology, friction, and structure of fault zones ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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