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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
  • 05. General::05.09. Miscellaneous::05.09.99. General or miscellaneous
  • Marine debris
  • Springer  (27)
  • Springer Berlin Heidelberg  (13)
  • American Chemical Society
  • American Institute of Physics (AIP)
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  • 1
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    Long-term multi-hazard assessment for El Misti volcano (Peru) (2014)
    Springer Berlin Heidelberg
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-11-26
    Description: We propose a long-term probabilistic multi-hazard assessment for El Misti Volcano, a composite cone located 〈20 km from Arequipa. The second largest Peruvian city is a rapidly expanding economic centre and is classified by UNESCO as World Heritage. We apply the Bayesian Event Tree code for Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH) to produce probabi- listic hazard maps for the predominant volcanic phenomena that may affect c.900,000 people living around the volcano. The methodology accounts for the natural variability displayed by volcanoes in their eruptive behaviour, such as different types/sizes of eruptions and possible vent locations. For this purpose, we treat probabilistically several model runs for some of the main hazardous phenomena (lahars, pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), tephra fall and ballistic ejecta) and data from past eruptions at El Misti (tephra fall, PDCs and lahars) and at other volcanoes (PDCs). The hazard maps, although neglecting possible interactions among phenomena or cascade effects, have been produced with a homogeneous method and refer to a common time window of 1 year. The probability maps reveal that only the north and east suburbs of Arequipa are exposed to all volcanic threats except for ballistic ejecta, which are limited to the uninhabited but touristic summit cone. The probability for pyroclastic density currents reaching recently expanding urban areas and the city along ravines is around 0.05 %/year, similar to the probability obtained for roof-critical tephra load- ing during the rainy season. Lahars represent by far the most probable threat (around 10 %/year) because at least four radial drainage channels can convey them approximately 20 km away from the volcano across the entire city area in heavy rain episodes, even without eruption. The Río Chili Valley repre- sents the major concern to city safety owing to the probable cascading effect of combined threats: PDCs and rockslides, dammed lake break-outs and subsequent lahars or floods. Although this study does not intend to replace the current El Misti hazard map, the quantitative results of this probabilistic multi-hazard assessment can be incorporated into a multi-risk analysis, to support decision makers in any future improvement of the current hazard evaluation, such as further land-use planning and possible emergency management.
    Description: Published
    Description: 771
    Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: BET_VH ; TITAN2D ; TEPHRA2 ; Probabilistic volcanic hazard ; Multi-hazard assessment ; El Misti Arequipa ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Exploring the influence of vent location and eruption style on tephra fall hazard from the Okataina Volcanic Centre, New Zealand (2015)
    Springer Berlin Heidelberg
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-25
    Description: Uncertainties in modelling volcanic hazards are often amplified in geographically large systems and in volcanoes which have a diverse eruption history that comprises variable eruption compositions and styles from different vent locations. The large ~ 700 km2 Okataina Volcanic Centre (OVC) is a large silicic caldera complex in a geodynamic region of New Zealand which has displayed a range of eruption styles and compositions over its current phase of activity (26 ka - present), including one basaltic maar-forming eruption, one basaltic Plinian eruption, and nine rhyolitic Plinian eruptions. All three of these eruption styles have occurred within the past 3.5 ky, and any of these styles could occur in the event of a future eruption. The location of a future eruption is also unknown. Future vents could potentially open in one of three different possible areas of the OVC: the Tarawera linear vent zone (LVZ) (5 eruptions over the past 26 ky), the Haroharo LVZ (5 eruptions over the past 26 ky), or outside of these LVZs (1 eruption over the past 26 ky). A future rhyolitic or basaltic Plinian eruption from the OVC is likely to generate widespread tephra fall in loads that will cause significant disruption and socio- economic impacts throughout the surrounding region. Past OVC tephra studies have focused on evaluating hazard from a rhyolitic Plinian eruption at select vent locations in the OVC's Tarawera LVZ. Here, we expand upon these past studies by evaluating tephra hazard for all possible OVC eruption vent areas and for both rhyolitic and basaltic Plinian eruption styles, and exploring how these parameters influence tephra hazard forecasts. Probabilistic volcanic hazard model BET_VH and advection-diffusion tephra hazard model TEPHRA2 were used to assess the hazard of accumulating ≥ 10 kg m-2 of tephra from both basaltic Plinian and rhyolitic Plinian eruption styles, occurring from within the Tarawera LVZ, the Haroharo LVZ, and other potential vent areas within the caldera. We present the results of these analyses as a first-order tephra hazard assessment for the entire OVC. Our results highlight the importance of considering all the potential vent locations of a volcanic system, in order to capture the full eruption catalogue in analyses (e.g., 11 eruptions over 26 ky for the OVC, versus only 5 eruptions over 26 ky for the Tarawera LVZ), as well as the full potential distribution of tephra hazard. Although the Tarawera LVZ has been prominently discussed in studies of OVC hazard because of is recent activity (1886 and ~1315 AD), we find that, in the event of future eruption, the likelihood of a vent opening within the Haroharo LVZ (last eruption 5.6 ka) is equivalent (〈 1% difference) to that for the Tarawera LVZ (31.8% compared to 32.5%). We also find that an eruption from within the Haroharo LVZ presents a relatively higher hazard to several localities, such as the town of Kawerau, where the average absolute probability of accumulating ≥ 10 kg m-2 of tephra is 1.3 times greater than for an eruption from within the Tarawera LVZ. While the absolute probabilities of accumulating ≥ 10 kg m-2 of tephra in the next one year from a basaltic Plinian eruption are on average 7.2 times lower than for a rhyolitic Plinian eruption throughout the surrounding region, our results suggest that the hazard posed by a basaltic Plinian eruption does contribute to the overall OVC tephra hazard, raising absolute probabilities for the entire OVC by an order of 0.14, which may have implications when considering sensitive decision-making thresholds.
    Description: Published
    Description: 38
    Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: PVHA ; Okataina Volcanic Centre ; BET_VH ; TEPHRA2 ; volcanic hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    Combining long- and short-term probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment with cost-benefit analysis to support decision making in a volcanic crisis from the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand (2011)
    Springer Berlin Heidelberg
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-25
    Description: By using BET_VH, we propose a quantitative probabilistic hazard assessment for base surge impact in Auckland, New Zealand. Base surges resulting from phreatomagmatic eruptions are among the most dangerous phenomena likely to be associated with the initial phase of a future eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field. The assessment is done both in the long-term and in a specific short-term case study, i.e. the simulated pre-eruptive unrest episode during Exercise Ruaumoko, a national civil defence exercise. The most important factors to account for are the uncertainties in the vent location (expected for a volcanic field) and in the run-out distance of base surges. Here, we propose a statistical model of base surge run-out distance based on deposits from past eruptions in Auckland and in analogous volcanoes. We then combine our hazard assessment with an analysis of the costs and benefits of evacuating people (on a 1km x 1km cell grid). In addition to stressing the practical importance of a cost-benefit analysis in creating a bridge between volcanologists and decision makers, our study highlights some important points. First, in the Exercise Ruaumoko application, the evacuation call seems to be required as soon as the unrest phase is clear; additionally, the evacuation area is much larger than what is recommended in the current Contingency Plan. Secondly, the evacuation area changes in size with time, due to a reduction in the uncertainty in the vent location and increase in the probability of eruption. It is the tradeoff between these two factors that dictates which cells must be evacuated, and when, thus determining the ultimate size and shape of the area to be evacuated.
    Description: Published
    Description: 705-723
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Auckland Volcanic Field ; Base surge ; Bayesian event tree ; Volcanic hazard ; Cost benefit analysis ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
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    The recording stations of the Italian strong motion network: geological information and site classification (2012)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-10-26
    Description: One of the main objectives of the ITACA (ITalian ACcelerometric Archive) strong motion database, promoted by the Italian Department of Civil Protection, was to improve the characterization of the recording sites from a geological and geophysical point of view and to provide their seismic classification according to the seismic norms pertinent to Italy, namely the Eurocode 8 and the National Technical Norms for Constructions. A standard format to summarize the available information for the recording stations was first produced, in terms of a technical report dynamically linked to the database, i.e., some of the relevant information is automatically updated when the corresponding fields of the database are modified. Then, an important activity of collection, qualification and synthesis of available data was carried out, especially for stations that recorded the strongest earthquakes in Italy in the last 40 years, and for which a relevant number of studies have been published. In spite of this activity, among the more than 700 strong motion stations present in the ITACA database, only a limited number of them could be characterized by quantitative information on subsurface soil properties. For this reason, a dual seismic site classification criterion was implemented, either based on the standard Vs,30 scheme, or, in the absence of such information, based on an expert opinion supported by shallow geology maps, mostly at 1:100,000 scale, and when available on the H/V ratios calculated on recordings. Owing to the relevance in the Italian geographic and morphological context, a special care was also given to the topographic classification of stations, based on suitable criteria developed within a GIS environment.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1779-1796
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: ITACA database ; Strong motion station ; General characterization ; Site classification ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.06. Surveys, measurements, and monitoring ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.02. Seismological data ; 05. General::05.09. Miscellaneous::05.09.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
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    A quantitative model for volcanic hazard assessment (2007)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Volcanic hazard assessment is a basic ingredient for risk-based decision-making in land-use planning and emergency management. Volcanic hazard is defined as the probability of any particular area being affected by a destructive volcanic event within a given period of time (Fournier d’Albe 1979). The probabilistic nature of such an important issue derives from the fact that volcanic activity is a complex process, characterized by several and usually unknown degrees of freedom that are often linked by nonlinear relationships (e.g. Bak et al. 1988). Except in sporadic cases, the result of this complexity is an intrinsic, and perhaps unavoidable, unpredictability of the time evolution of the volcanic system from a deterministic point of view.
    Description: Published
    Description: open
    Keywords: model ; volcanic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book
    Format: 137534 bytes
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  • 6
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    BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting (2007)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a Bayesian event tree model for eruption forecasting (BET EF). The model represents a flexible tool to provide probabilities of any specific event at which we are interested in, by merging all the relevant available information, such as theoretical models, a priori beliefs, monitoring measures, and any kind of past data. BET EF is based on a Bayesian procedure and it relies on the fuzzy approach to manage monitoring data. The method deals with short- and long-term forecasting, therefore it can be useful in many practical aspects, as land use planning, and during volcanic emergencies. Finally, we provide the description of a free software package that provides a graphically supported computation of short- to long-term eruption forecasting, and a tutorial application to the recent MESIMEX exercise at Vesuvius.
    Description: Published
    Description: on line first
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: Eruption forecasting ; Long- and short-term volcanic hazard ; Bayesian inference ; Event tree ; Fuzzy sets ; MESIMEX ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
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    Blackening of Pompeian Cinnabar paintings: X-ray micro-spectroscopy analysis (2007)
    American Chemical Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Red Pompeian paintings, very famous for their deep intensity, are currently suffering from darkening. The origins of this darkening degradation are not clearly identified yet and remain a major issue for curators. In the specific case of cinnabar (HgS)-based red pigment, a photoinduced conversion into black metacinnabar is usually suspected. This work is focused on the blackening of red cinnabar paintings coated on a sparry calcite mortar. Different samples exhibiting different levels of degradation were selected upon visual observations and analyzed by synchrotron-based microanalytical techniques. Atomic and molecular compositions of the different debased regions revealed two possible degradation mechanisms. On one hand, micro X-ray fluorescence elemental maps show peculiar distributions of chlorine and sulfur. On the other hand, X-ray absorption spectroscopy performed at both Cl and S K-edges confirms the presence of characteristic degradation products: (i) Hg- Cl compounds (e.g., corderoite, calomel, and terlinguaite), which may result from the reaction with exogenous NaCl, in gray areas; (ii) gypsum, produced by the calcite sulfation, in black coatings. Metacinnabar is never detected. Finally, a cross section was analyzed to map the in-depth alteration gradient. Reduced and oxidized sulfur distributions reveal that the sulfated black coating consists of a 5-ím-thick layer covering intact cinnabar.
    Description: Published
    Description: 7484-7492
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Microspectroscopy Analysis ; 05. General::05.09. Miscellaneous::05.09.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
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    The role of the Pernicana Fault System in the spreading of Mt. Etna (Italy) during the 2002-2003 eruption (2005)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Flank instability and collapse are observed at many volcanoes. Among these, Mt. Etna is characterized by the spreading of its eastern and southern flanks. The eastern spreading area is bordered to the north by the EW-trending Pernicana Fault System (PFS). During the 20022003 Etna eruption, ground fracturing along the PFS migrated eastward from the NE Rift, to as far as the 18 km distant coastline. The deformation consisted of dextral en-echelon segments, with sinistral and normal kinematics. Both of these components of displacement were one order of magnitude larger (~1 m) in the western, previously known, portion of the PFS with respect to the newly surveyed (~9 km long) eastern section (~0.1 m). This eastern section is located along a pre-existing, but previously unknown, fault, where displaced man-made structures give overall slip rates (11.9 cm/year), only slightly lower than those calculated for the western portion (1.42.3 cm/year). After an initial rapid motion during the first days of the 20022003 eruption, movement of the western portion of the PFS decreased dramatically, while parts of the eastern portion continued to move. These data suggest a model of spreading of the eastern flank of Etna along the PFS, characterized by eruptions along the NE Rift, instantaneous, short-lived, meter-scale displacements along the western PFS and more long-lived centimeter-scale displacements along the eastern PFS. The surface deformation then migrated southwards, reactivating, one after the other, the NNWSSE-trending Timpe and Trecastagni faults, with displacements of ~0.1 and ~0.04 m, respectively. These structures, along with the PFS, mark the boundaries of two adjacent blocks, moving at different times and rates. The new extent of the PFS and previous activity over its full length indicate that the sliding eastern flank extends well below the Ionian Sea. The clustering of seismic activity above 4 km b.s.l. during the eruption suggests a deep décollement for the moving mass. The collected data thus suggests a significant movement (volume 〉1,100 km3) of the eastern flank of Etna, both on-shore and off-shore.
    Description: Published
    Description: 417-430
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: Volcano spreading ; Fracturing ; Mt. Etna ; Pernicana Fault System ; NE Rift ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Format: 523 bytes
    Format: 998206 bytes
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  • 9
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    Hydrologic and geochemical survey of the lake “Specchio di Venere” (Pantelleria island, Southern Italy) (2007)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Hydrological and geochemical studies performed on Lake Specchio di Venere on Pantelleria island (Italy) indicate that this endorheic basin has been formed through upwelling of the water table, and that it is continuously fed by the thermal springs situated on its shores. The lake is periodically stratified both thermally and in salinity, albeit this stratification is rather unstable over time since meteorological events such as strong rain or wind can determine the mixing of its waters. Periodical analyses of the lake water chemistry show large variations of the salt content due to the yearly evaporation-rain dilution cycle. These processes are also responsible for the saline stratification during steady meteorological conditions. The mineralogical characterisation of the bottom sediments shows the almost exclusive presence of neoformation minerals, mainly carbonates, formed in response to the pH gradient between spring- (pH≈6) and lake-waters (pH≈9). Finally, the CO2 partial pressures in the lake water slightly exceeding the atmospheric one, are due to the large amounts of CO2 brought to the lake through the bubbling free gas phase of the thermal springs. Nevertheless the high pH value of the lake water, its small volume and its periodical mixing prevent dangerous built up of this gas.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1.2. TTC - Sorveglianza geochimica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Pantelleria island ; volcanic lake ; gas hazard ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.02. Hydrology::03.02.02. Hydrological processes: interaction, transport, dynamics ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.03. Chemistry of waters ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.12. Fluid Geochemistry ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
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    Hydrogen sulphide as a natural air contaminant in volcanic/geothermal areas: the case of Sousaki, Corinthia (Greece) (2009)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Volcanic and geothermal areas are one of the major natural sources of H2S to the atmosphere. Its environmental impact is often the main cause of the opposition to the development of geothermal energy exploitation programs. In this paper we analyze the air concentrations and dispersion pattern of naturally emitted H2S at the geothermal area of Sousaki (Corinthia, Greece). Measurements, made with a network of passive samplers, evidence a rapid decrease of concentration values away from the emission points. The fact that the decrease is more pronounced in the summer with respect to the winter indicates that it is not only due to a dilution effect, but also to redox reactions favoured by higher temperatures and intense sunlight typical of the summer period.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1723-1728
    Description: 1.2. TTC - Sorveglianza geochimica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Hydrogen sulphide ; Environmental impact of volcanic activity ; Gas hazard ; Passive samplers ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.03. Pollution ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.07. Volcanic effects ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.12. Fluid Geochemistry ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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