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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology  (23)
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.06. Subduction related processes
  • Elsevier Science Limited  (24)
  • Agu  (6)
  • Nature Publishing Group  (3)
  • OGS
  • Public Library of Science (PLoS)
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  • 1
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    Probabilistic seismic hazard at Mt. Etna (Italy): The contribution of local fault activity in mid-term assessment (2012)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-01
    Description: In this work, we tackle the problem of seismic hazard at Etna deriving from the recurrent seismogenic activity of local faults, by adopting two independent methods based on probabilistic approaches. We assess the hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity and represent the occurrence probability calculated for different exposure times both on maps and at fault scale. Seismic hazard maps obtained by applying the “site approach” through the SASHA code and a new probabilistic attenuation model, indicate the eastern flank of the volcano as the most hazardous, with expected intensity (Iexp) in 50 years (i.e. the standard exposure time adopted in the seismic regulations) ranging from degrees IX to X EMS. In shorter exposure periods (20, 10, 5 years), values of Iexp up to IX are also reached in the same area, but they are clearly determined by the earthquakes generated by the Timpe fault system. In order to quantify the contribution of local seismogenic sources to the hazard of the region, we reconstruct the seismic history of each fault and calculate with SASHA the probability that earthquakes of a given intensity may be generated in different exposure times. Results confirm the high level of hazard due to the S. Tecla, Moscarello and Fiandaca faults especially for earthquakes of moderate intensity, i.e. VI≤I0≤VII, with probabilities respectively exceeding 50% and 20% in 10 years, and 30% and 10% in 5 years. Occurrence probability of major events (I0≥VIII) at the fault scale has also been investigated by statistics on intertimes. Under stationary assumptions we obtain a probability of 6.8% in 5 years for each structure; by introducing the time-dependency (time elapsed since the last event occurred on each fault) through a BPT model, we identify the Moscarello and S. Tecla faults as the most probable sources to be activated in the next 5 years (2013–2017). This result may represent a useful indication to establish priority criteria for actions aimed at reducing seismic risk at a local scale.
    Description: Published
    Description: 158-169
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Macroseismic intensity ; Seismic history ; Occurrence probability ; Time-dependent renewal process ; Individual sources ; Seismic hazard ; Mt. Etna ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.05. Historical seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Stress releasemodel and proxy measures of earthquake size. Application to Italian seismogenic sources (2016)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: This study presents a series of self-correcting models that are obtained by integrating information about seismicity and fault sources in Italy. Four versions of the stress release model are analyzed, in which the evolution of the system over time is represented by the level of strain, moment, seismic energy, or energy scaled by the moment. We carry out the analysis on a regional basis by subdividing the study area into eight tectonically coherent regions. In each region, we reconstruct the seismic history and statistically evaluate the completeness of the resulting seismic catalog. Following the Bayesian paradigm, we apply Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to obtain parameter estimates and a measure of their uncertainty expressed by the simulated posterior distribution. The comparison of the four models through the Bayes factor and an information criterion provides evidence (to different degrees depending on the region) in favor of the stress release model based on the energy and the scaled energy. Therefore, among the quantities considered, this turns out to be the measure of the size of an earthquake to use in stress release models. At any instant, the time to the next event turns out to follow a Gompertz distribution, with a shape parameter that depends on time through the value of the conditional intensity at that instant. In light of this result, the issue of forecasting is tackled through both retrospective and prospective approaches. Retrospectively, the forecasting procedure is carried out on the occurrence times of the events recorded in each region, to determine whether the stress release model reproduces the observations used in the estimation procedure. Prospectively, the estimates of the time to the next event are compared with the dates of the earthquakes that occurred after the end of the learning catalog, in the 2003–2012 decade.
    Description: Italian Dipartimento della Protezione Civile in the framework of the 2007–2009 Agreement with Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), project S1: Analysis of the seismic potential in Italy for the evaluation of the seismic hazard.
    Description: Published
    Description: 147-168
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: point process ; probabilistic forecasting ; interevent time distribution ; seismogenic sources ; Bayesian inference ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    Time-dependent Coulomb stress changes induced by the 2002-2003 Etna magmatic intrusions and implications on following seismic activities (2016)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-25
    Description: In this paper, the relationship between the dike-forming magmatic intrusions and the faulting process at Mount Etna is investigated in terms of Coulomb stress changes. As case study, a complete time-dependent 3-D finite element model for the 2002-2003 eruption at Mount Etna is presented. In the model, which takes into account the topography, medium heterogeneities and principal fault systems in a viscoelastic/plastic rheology, we sequentially activated three dike-forming processes and looked at the induced temporal evolution of the Coulomb stress changes, during the co-intrusive and post-intrusive periods, on Pernicana and Santa Venerina faults. We investigated where and when fault slips were encouraged or not, and consequently how earthquakes may have been triggered. Results show positive Coulomb stress changes for the Pernicana Fault in accordance to the time, location and depth of the 27th October 2002 Pernicana earthquake (Md = 3.5). The amount of Coulomb stress changes in the area of Santa Venerina Fault, as induced by dike-forming intrusions only, is instead almost negligible and, probably, not sufficient to trigger the 29th October Santa Venerina earthquake (Md = 4.4), occurred two days after the start of the eruption. The necessary Coulomb stress change value to trigger this earthquake is instead reached if we consider it as induced by the 27th October Pernicana biggest earthquake, combined with the dike-induced stresses.
    Description: MED-SUV FP7 Project (Grant number 308665)
    Description: Published
    Description: 185-196
    Description: 4V. Dinamica dei processi pre-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Coulomb stress changes ; Finite Element Model ; Viscoelasticity ; Earthquakes ; Mount Etna ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.06. Measurements and monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.07. Satellite geodesy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.08. Theory and Models ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.03. Magmas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.03. Inverse methods
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
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    Reconstructing the Vulcano Island evolution from 3D modeling of magnetic signatures (2017)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-09
    Description: High-resolution ground and marine magnetic data are exploited for a detailed definition of a 3D model of the Vulcano Island volcanic complex. The resulting 3D magnetic imaging, obtained by 3-D inverse modeling technique, has delivered useful constraints both to reconstruct the Vulcano Island evolution and to be used as input data for volcanic hazard assessment models. Our results constrained the depth and geometry of the main geo-structural features revealing more subsurface volcanic structures than exposed ones and allowing to elucidate the relationships between them. The recognition of two different magnetization sectors, approximatively coincident with the structural depressions of Piano caldera, in the southern half of the island, and La Fossa caldera at the north, suggests a complex structural and volcanic evolution.Magnetic highs identified across the southern half of the island reflect the main crystallized feeding systems, intrusions and buried vents, whose NNW–SSE preferential alignment highlights the role of the NNW–SSE Tindari–Letojanni regional system from the initial activity of the submarine edifice, to the more recent activity of the Vulcano complex. The low magnetization area, in the middle part of the islandmay result fromhydrothermally altered rocks. Their presence not only in the central part of the volcano edifice but also in other peripheral areas, is a sign of a more diffuse historical hydrothermal activity than in present days. Moreover, the high magnetization heterogeneity within the upper flanks of La Fossa cone edifice is an imprint of a composite distribution of unaltered and altered rocks with different mechanical properties, which poses in this area a high risk level for failure processes especially during volcanic or hydrothermal crisis.
    Description: Published
    Description: 40-49
    Description: 1V. Storia e struttura dei sistemi vulcanici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Vulcano Island ; 3D inverse model ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
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    Approaching the seismogenic source of the Calabria 8 September 1905 earthquake: New geophysical, geological and biochemical data from the S. Eufemia Gulf (S Italy) (2013)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-04-07
    Description: Recognizing the seismogenic source of major historical earthquakes, particularly when these have occurred offshore, is a long-standing issue across the Mediterranean Sea and elsewhere. The destructive earthquake (M ~7) that struck western Calabria (southern Italy) on the night of 8 September 1905 is one such case. having various authors proposed a seismogenic source, with apparently diverse hypotheses and without achieving a unique solution. To gain novel insight into the crustal volume where the 1905 earthquake took place and to seek a more robust solution for the seismogenic source associated with this destructive event, we carried out a well-targeted multidisciplinary survey within the Gulf of S. Eufemia (SE Tyrrhenian Sea), collecting geophysical data, oceanographic measurements, and biological, chemical and sedimentary samples. We identified three main tectonic features affecting the sedimentary basin in the Gulf of S. Eufemia: 1) a NE-SW striking, ca. 13-km-long, normal fault, here named S. Eufemia Fault; 2) a WNW-striking polyphased fault system; and 3) a likely E-W trending lineament. Among these, the normal fault shows evidence of activity witnessed by the deformed recent sediments and by its seabed rupture along which, locally, fluid leakage occurs. Features in agreement with the anomalous distribution of prokaryotic abundance and biopolymeric C content, resulted from the shallow sediments analyses. The numerous seismogenic sources proposed in the literature during the past 15 years make up a composite framework of this sector of western Calabria, that we tested against a) the geological evidence from the newly acquired dataset, and b) the regional seismotectonic models. Such assessment allows us to propose the NE-SW striking normal fault as the most probable candidate for the seismogenic source of the 1905 earthquake. Re-appraising a major historical earthquake as the 1905 one enhances the seismotectonic picture of western Calabria. Further understanding of the region and better constraining the location of the seismogenic source may be attained through integrated interpretation of our data together with a) on-land field evidence, and b) seismological modeling.
    Description: Published
    Description: 62-75
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: seismogenic source ; earthquake ; seismotectonics ; prokaryotes ; Calabrian Arc ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.06. Seismic methods ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.04. Marine geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.10. Stratigraphy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.05. Historical seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
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    Miocene thrusting in the eastern Sila Massif: Implication for the evolution of the Calabria-Peloritani orogenic wedge (southern Italy) (2012)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-11-20
    Description: Alpine orogens in the central Mediterranean region have revealed the concomitance of crustal extension in back-arc domain and crustal shortening in frontal domain. Quantitative data of deformation in the frontal orogenic wedges are necessary to understand how the shortening-extension pair evolves in terms of structures, orogenic transport, timing, and exhumation rate. This paper deals with kinematics and ages of the frontal thrust systems of the Calabria-Peloritani Arc (Italy) exposed in the eastern Sila Massif. We first present structural fieldwork, onshore and offshore well log data, and new apatite fission-track (AFT) thermochronology. Then, we describe the structural architecture of the studied area as an ENE-verging stacking of thrust sheets involving basement units and syn-orogenic sediments. The AFT study documents that thrust sheets entered the partial annealing zone from 18 Ma to 13 Ma. This Early-Middle Miocene thrusting phase was coeval with exhumation of high-pressure/low temperature metamorphic rocks in the hinterland of the orogen (Coastal Chain area), mainly driven by top-to-the-W extensional tectonics. Opposite kinematic shear senses (contractional top-to-the-E and extensional top-to-the-W) and different exhumation rates (slow in the frontal, more rapid in the hinterland) are framed in a tectonic scenario of a critically tapered orogenic wedge during the eastward retreating of the Apennine slab.
    Description: Published
    Description: 105-119
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: AFT thermochronology ; orogenic wedge ; Calabria-Peloritani Arc ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
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    Slip rate depth distribution for active faults in Central Italy using numerical models (2016)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: Slip rate is a critical parameter for describing geologic and earthquake rates of known active faults. Although faults are inherently three-dimensional surfaces, the paucity of data allows for estimating only the slip rate at the ground surface and often only few values for an entire fault. These values are frequently assumed as proxies or as some average of slip rate at depth. Evidence of geological offset and single earthquake displacement, as well as mechanical requirements, show that fault slip varies significantly with depth. Slip rate should thus vary in a presumably similar way, yet these variations are rarely considered. In this work, we tackle the determination of slip rate depth distributions by applying the finite element method on a 2D vertical section, with stratification and faults, across the central Apennines, Italy. In a first step, we perform a plane-stress analysis assuming visco-elasto-plastic rheology and then search throughout a large range of values to minimize the RMS deviation between the model and the interseismic GPS velocities. Using a parametric analysis, we assess the accuracy of the best model and the sensitivity of its parameters. In a second step, we unlock the faults and let the model simulate 10 kyr of deformation to estimate the fault long-term slip rates. The overall average slip rate at depth is approximately 1.1 mm/yr for normal faults and 0.2 mm/yr for thrust faults. A maximum value of about 2 mm/yr characterizes the Avezzano fault that caused the 1915, Mw 7.0 earthquake. The slip rate depth distribution varies significantly from fault to fault and even between neighbouring faults, with maxima and minima located at different depths. We found uniform distributions only occasionally. We suggest that these findings can strongly influence the forecasting of cumulative earthquake depth distributions based on long-term fault slip rates.
    Description: Project “Abruzzo” (code: RBAP10ZC8K_ 003) funded by the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research (MIUR).
    Description: Published
    Description: 1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: slip rate ; numerical model ; fault ; rheology ; central Italy ; active tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
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    Tomomorphometry of the Somma-Vesuvius volcano (Italy) (2007)
    Agu
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: A tomomorphometric analysis of the Somma-Vesuvius topography is presented. This consists in extracting horizontal cross sections at different altitudes, and in determining some morphometric parameters: radius of the circle with a surface area equal to the cross section, circularity, ratio between the major and minor axis of the best fitting ellipse, orientation a of the ellipse major axis, and the x-y centroid. The Somma includes three portions: the apron zone, the flanks, and the summit caldera boundary. Between 225 m and 525 m, a is 50 –60 . Between 600 m and 775 m, a is 130 –135 . These are the preferred strike of the eruptive fissures affecting the northwestern Somma flanks, the faults affecting the whole edifice, the nodal planes from local earthquakes. The Somma activity developed along a NE-SW structural discontinuity, whereas the post-caldera activity concentrated along a NW-SE striking structure. Somma activity migrates from SE to NW.
    Description: Published
    Description: L17305
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Tomomorphometry ; Somma-Vesuvius volcano ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.03. Geomorphology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
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    VHR seismic imaging of displacement along an active off-shore fault system of the Adriatic foreland (2007)
    OGS
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: A dense network of Very High Resolution seismic profiles along the Gondola Fault Zone (GFZ), in the Adriatic foreland (Italy), reveals the geometry and Middle Pleistocene-Holocene activity of this inherited, E-W, strike-slip fault system. The GFZ is 〉50 km long and includes two parallel fault sets, characterized by subvertical planes displaying a vertical component of motion, associated with two main anticlines. The northern fault set is organized in three branches, whereas the southern one includes two branches. The overall geometry of the GFZ suggests dextral slip. The distribution of the vertical displacement is bell-shaped, suggesting a long-term behavior as a single structure. However, individual branches show different deformation histories, implying that they can slip independently. The vertical slip rates, calculated for late Middle Pleistocene to Holocene intervals, are consistently small within a limited range (0-0.19 mm/a).
    Description: Published
    Description: CNR, P.le Aldo Moro 5, Roma, Italia
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: open
    Keywords: VHR seismics ; Fault displacement ; Active fault ; Adriatic Sea ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.06. Seismic methods ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.04. Marine geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.10. Stratigraphy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Oral presentation
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  • 10
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    Mapping mantle flow during retreating subduction: Laboratory models analyzed by feature tracking (2007)
    Agu
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Three-dimensional dynamically consistent laboratory models are carried out to model the large-scale mantle circulation induced by subduction of a laterally migrating slab. A laboratory analogue of a slab–upper mantle system is set up with two linearly viscous layers of silicone putty and glucose syrup in a tank. The circulation pattern is continuously monitored and quantitatively estimated using a feature tracking image analysis technique. The effects of plate width and mantle viscosity/density on mantle circulation are systematically considered. The experiments show that rollback subduction generates a complex three-dimensional time-dependent mantle circulation pattern characterized by the presence of two distinct components: the poloidal and the toroidal circulation. The poloidal component is the answer to the viscous coupling between the slab motion and the mantle, while the toroidal one is produced by lateral slab migration. Spatial and temporal features of mantle circulation are carefully analyzed. These models show that (1) poloidal and toroidal mantle circulation are both active since the beginning of the subduction process, (2) mantle circulation is intermittent, (3) plate width affects the velocity and the dimension of subduction induced mantle circulation area, and (4) mantle flow in subduction zones cannot be correctly described by models assuming a two-dimensional steady state process. We show that the intermittent toroidal component of mantle circulation, missed in those models, plays a crucial role in modifying the geometry and the efficiency of the poloidal component
    Description: Published
    Description: B03402
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: mantle flow ; subduction ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.01. Continents ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.06. Subduction related processes
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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