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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology
  • Elsevier Science Limited  (12)
  • American Geophysical Union  (10)
  • AGU  (4)
  • Blackwell Publishing Ltd  (2)
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Publisher
Years
  • 1
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    Stress releasemodel and proxy measures of earthquake size. Application to Italian seismogenic sources (2016)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: This study presents a series of self-correcting models that are obtained by integrating information about seismicity and fault sources in Italy. Four versions of the stress release model are analyzed, in which the evolution of the system over time is represented by the level of strain, moment, seismic energy, or energy scaled by the moment. We carry out the analysis on a regional basis by subdividing the study area into eight tectonically coherent regions. In each region, we reconstruct the seismic history and statistically evaluate the completeness of the resulting seismic catalog. Following the Bayesian paradigm, we apply Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to obtain parameter estimates and a measure of their uncertainty expressed by the simulated posterior distribution. The comparison of the four models through the Bayes factor and an information criterion provides evidence (to different degrees depending on the region) in favor of the stress release model based on the energy and the scaled energy. Therefore, among the quantities considered, this turns out to be the measure of the size of an earthquake to use in stress release models. At any instant, the time to the next event turns out to follow a Gompertz distribution, with a shape parameter that depends on time through the value of the conditional intensity at that instant. In light of this result, the issue of forecasting is tackled through both retrospective and prospective approaches. Retrospectively, the forecasting procedure is carried out on the occurrence times of the events recorded in each region, to determine whether the stress release model reproduces the observations used in the estimation procedure. Prospectively, the estimates of the time to the next event are compared with the dates of the earthquakes that occurred after the end of the learning catalog, in the 2003–2012 decade.
    Description: Italian Dipartimento della Protezione Civile in the framework of the 2007–2009 Agreement with Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), project S1: Analysis of the seismic potential in Italy for the evaluation of the seismic hazard.
    Description: Published
    Description: 147-168
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: point process ; probabilistic forecasting ; interevent time distribution ; seismogenic sources ; Bayesian inference ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    The structure of an exhumed intraplate seismogenic fault in crystalline basement (2015)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-04
    Description: The 600 m-thick Gole Larghe Fault Zone (GLFZ) is hosted in jointed crystalline basement and exposed across glacier-polished outcrops in the Italian Alps. Ancient seismicity is attested by the widespread occurrence of cataclasites associated with pseudotachylytes (solidified frictional melts) formed at 9–11 km depth and ambient temperatures of 250–300 °C. Previous work focused on the southern part of the fault zone; here we quantitatively document fault zone structure across the full width of the GLFZ and surrounding tonalite host rocks by using a combination of structural line transects and image analysis of samples collected across fault strike. These new datasets indicate that the GLFZ has a broadly symmetric across-strike damage structure and contains distinct southern, central and northern zones distinguished by large variations in fracture density, distribution of pseudotachylytes, volume of fault rock materials, and microfracture sealing characteristics. The c. 100 m wide central zone is bound by two thick (~ 2 m) and laterally continuous (〉 1 km) protocataclastic to ultracataclastic horizons. Within and immediately surrounding the central zone, fracture density is relatively high due to cataclastic fault–fracture networks that reworked earlier-formed pseudotachylytes. The fault–fracture networks were associated with pervasive microcracking and fluid–rock interaction, resulting in the development of a c. 200 m thick alteration zone delimited by lobate fluid infiltration fronts. In the c. 250 m thick southern and northern zones, fracture densities are much lower and pseudotachylytes systematically overprint cataclastic faults that exploited pre-existing magmatic cooling joints. Analysis of the structure of the GLFZ suggests that it shares certain characteristics with the seismogenic source responsible for the 2002 Au Sable Forks intraplate earthquake sequence in the northeastern USA, including seismicity distributed across a fault zone 500–1000 m thick and large (〉 100 MPa) static stress drops associated with frictional melting.
    Description: Published
    Description: 29-44
    Description: 4T. Fisica dei terremoti e scenari cosismici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Fault structure ; Fluid flow ; Fracture damage ; Alteration ; Cataclasite ; Adamello ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    Deformed Pleistocene marine terraces along the Ionian sea margin of southern Italy: unveiling blind fault-related folds contribution to coastal uplift (2013)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Morphotectonic analysis and fault numeric modeling of uplifted marine terraces along the Ionian Sea coast of the Southern Apennines allowed us to place quantitative constraints on middle Pleistocene-Holocene deformation. Ten terrace orders uplifted to as much as +660 m were mapped along ~80 km of the Taranto Gulf coastline. The shorelines document both a regional and a local, fault-induced contribution to uplift. The intermingling between the two deformation sources is attested by three 10 km scale undulations superimposed on a 100 km scale northeastward tilt. The undulations spatially coincide with the trace of NW-SE striking transpressional faults that affected the coastal range during the early Pleistocene. To test whether fault activity continued to the present, we modeled the differential uplift of marine terraces as progressive elastic displacement above blind oblique-thrust ramps seated beneath the coast. Through an iterative and mathematically based procedure, we defined the best geometric and kinematic fault parameters as well as the number and position of fault segments. Fault numerical models predict two fault-propagation folds cored by blind thrusts with slip rates ranging from 0.5 to 0.7 mm/yr and capable of generating an earthquake with a maximum moment magnitude of 5.9–6.3. Notably, we find that the locus of predominant activity has repeatedly shifted between the two fault systems during time and that slip rates on each fault have temporally changed. It is not clear if the active deformation is seismogenic or dominated by aseismic creep; however, the modeled faults are embedded in an offshore transpressional belt that may have sourced historical earthquakes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 737-762
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: uplifted marine terraces ; fault modeling ; fault-propagation folds ; middle-late Pleistocene ; active transpression ; Southern Italy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.03. Geomorphology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
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    Interaction between regional and local tectonic forcing along a complex Quaternary extensional basin: Upper Tiber Valley, Northern Apennines, Italy (2015)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-12-16
    Description: In extending areas undergoing regional tectonic uplift, the persistence of subsidence at a normal-fault hanging-wall depends on the competition between regional and local tectonic effects. When regional uplift exceeds the subsidence of the hanging-wall block, denudation prevails at both the hanging-wall and the foot-wall. When local tectonic subsidence exceeds regional uplift, sedimentation occurs over the hanging-wall block, supplied by foot-wall erosion. We analyzed a PlioceneeQuaternary continental basin, currently crossed by the Tiber River in Italy. The tectono-sedimentary evolution of the basin developed at the hanging-wall of a regional low-angle extensional detachment, the Alto Tiberina Fault, in the axial region of the Northern Apennines of Italy. This area is affected by regional uplift on the order of 0.5e1.0 mm/yr. The present-day activity of the fault is revealed by both microseismicity and geodetic (GPS) data. We investigated the mid- (10e100 ka) and long-term (0.5e3.0 Ma) evolution of the three depocenters by studying the continental Pleistocene succession infilling the basin as well as fluvial terraces and higher paleosurfaces carved into the Pleistocene deposits. By using surficial geologic data and an interpretation of a set of seismic reflection profiles, we show that the three depocenters experienced a fairly similar evolution during the PlioceneeEarly Pleistocene, when a 1000-m-thick continental succession was deposited. On the contrary, geomorphological observations indicate that, at the beginning of the Middle Pleistocene, a switch occurred in the evolution of the three depocenters. In the northernmost Sansepolcro sub-basin, bounding normal faults are active and hanging-wall subsidence outpaces regional uplift. Concurrently, in the Umbertide and Ponte Pattoli subbasins uplift dominates over the hanging-wall subsidence, promoting river incision and exhumation of the Pleistocene deposits. For these two depocenters, by means of terrace-river correlations, we estimate that the incision rate is ~0.3e0.35 mm/yr, suggesting a maximum tectonic subsidence of 0.2 mm/yr. The identification of a heterogeneous uplift pattern along the hanging-wall of the Alto Tiberina Fault, driven by different displacement rates of its fault splays, allowed us to characterize fault segments with different activities and, possibly, different seismic behaviors.
    Description: Published
    Description: 111-132
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Quaternary basin ; normal fault ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
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    ANISOMAT+: An automatic tool to retrieve seismic anisotropy from local earthquakes (2015)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: An automatic analysis code called ANISOMAT+ has been developed and improved to automatically retrieve the crustal anisotropic parameters fast polarization direction (ϕ) and delay time (δt) related to the shear wave splitting phenomena affecting seismic S-wave. The code is composed of a set of MatLab scripts and functions able to evaluate the anisotropic parameters from the three-component seismic recordings of local earthquakes using the cross-correlation method. Because the aim of the code is to achieve a fully automatic evaluation of anisotropic parameters, during the development of the code we focus our attention to devise several automatic checks intended to guarantee the quality and the stability of the results obtained. The basic idea behind the development of this automatic code is to build a tool able to work on a huge amount of data in a short time, obtaining stable results and minimizing the errors due to the subjectivity. These behaviors, coupled to a three component digital seismic network and a monitoring system that performs automatic pickings and locations, are required to develop a real-time monitoring of the anisotropic parameters.
    Description: Published
    Description: 62-68
    Description: 1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 4T. Fisica dei terremoti e scenari cosismici
    Description: 6T. Sismicità indotta e caratterizzazione sismica dei sistemi naturali
    Description: 3IT. Calcolo scientifico e sistemi informatici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: shear wave splitting, Earthquake forecast, Anisotropy, Cross-correlation method ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.02. Geological and geophysical evidences of deep processes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.06. Seismic methods ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.07. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.11. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.07. Tomography and anisotropy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.10. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.01. Data processing ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.05. Algorithms and implementation
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
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    Geological Evidence of Paleotsunamis at Torre degli Inglesi (northeast Sicily) (2008)
    AGU
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-03
    Description: Two layers of fine sand of marine origin occur in a sequence of organic rich colluvia in an archaeological excavation at Torre degli Inglesi, on Capo Peloro, northeast Sicily. Stratigraphic and micropaleontologic analyses support the hypothesis that these layers are related to deposition due to paleotsunami waves. Their ages are constrained both with radiocarbon and archaeological datings. The age of the oldest layer is coincident with the 17 A.D. earthquake that hit Reggio Calabria but for which no tsunami was previously reported. The age of the youngest layer can be only constrained in the range 3rd– 19th century and is tentatively associated to the 6 Feb. 1783 event.
    Description: Italian Civil Protection Department in the frame of the 2004 – 2006 agreement with Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia – INGV (Seismological Project S2) and E.C. project TRANSFER (contract 037058)
    Description: Published
    Description: L05311
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: 1783 earthquake ; AD 17 earthquake ; paleoseismology ; tsunami inundation hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
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    Paleoearthquakes of the Duzce fault (North Anatolian Fault Zone): Insights for large surface faulting earthquake recurrence (2008)
    AGU
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The 12 November 1999 Mw 7.1 earthquake ruptured the Du¨zce segment of the North Anatolian Fault Zone and produced a 40-km-long surface rupture. To improve knowledge about earthquake recurrence on this fault, we undertook paleoseismological trench investigations. We found evidence for repeated surface faulting paleoearthquakes predating the 1999 event during the past millennium. Dating was based on radiocarbon, 210Pb analyses, and archaeological considerations. In addition to the 1999 earthquake, prior surface faulting earthquakes are dated as follows: A.D. 1685–1900 (possibly end of 19th century), A.D. 1495–1700, and A.D. 685–1020 (possibly A.D. 890–1020). The A.D. 967 and A.D. 1878 historical earthquakes are good candidates to have ruptured the Du¨zce fault correlating with the oldest and penultimate paleoearthquakes. No obvious correlation for the third paleoearthquake (A.D. 1495–1700) exists. These results shows that the Du¨zce fault considerably participates, along with the parallel Mudurnu fault sections, in the seismogenic deformation taking place along this part of the North Anatolian Fault. Four events since A.D. 685–1020 (possibly A.D. 890–1020) would yield an average recurrence time for the Du¨zce fault of 330–430 years (possibly 330– 370 years). The three most recent earthquakes, including 1999, occurred within 500 years. Merging results from other paleoseismological studies along the Du¨zce fault show a consistency of results and yields average recurrence times for the past 2000 years of 320– 390 years. Assuming that the 1999 slip (2.7 m average, 5 m maximum) is representative of the behavior of this fault, the above recurrence times yield a reference figure of fault slip rate in the range 6.9–15.6 mm/a
    Description: EU project RELIEF (EVG1-CT-2002-00069)
    Description: Published
    Description: B01309
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: paleoseismicity ; strike-slip faults ; north anatolian fault ; 1999 earthquake ; 210Pb dating ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
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    The Aigion–Neos Erineos coastal normal fault system (western Corinth Gulf Rift, Greece): Geomorphological signature, recent earthquake history, and evolution (2008)
    AGU
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: At the westernmost part of the Corinth Rift (Greece), an area of rapid extension and active normal faulting, geomorphological observations reveal the existence and geometry of an active NW-SE trending coastal fault system, which includes the Aigion fault. We recognize a similar fault pattern on both the coastal range front to the NW of Aigion town and the Holocene fan deltas in front of it. We interpret this as a result of recent migration of faulting to the hanging wall of the fault system. Differences in the geomorphic expression of the constituent faults provide hints on the possible evolution of the fault pattern during this recent migration. A trench excavated across one of the identified coastal fault scarps (on a Holocene fan delta) provides information on the seismic history of the fault system, which includes at least four (possibly six) earthquakes in the past 4000 years. A minimum estimate for the slip rate of the trenched fault is 1.9–2.7 mm/yr. The trench exposed sediments of an uplifted paleolagoon (approximate age 2000 years B.P.), inside which the last two earthquakes formed an underwater monoclinal scarp. Oscillating coastal vertical movements are suggested by the fact that the lagoonal deposits are also uplifted on the trenched fault hanging wall (uplift by offshore faults) and by the abrupt transition from fluvial to lagoonal deposits (subsidence by more landward faults, assuming that extensive coastal sediment failure has not taken place in the specific part of the fan delta, within the time interval of interest). These movements suggest that the proposed migration of activity from the range front faults to those on the fan deltas is probably still ongoing, with activity on both sets of faults.
    Description: Published
    Description: B09302
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: tectonic geomorphology ; paleoseismology ; normal fault evolution ; coastal uplift ; Aigion fault ; western Corinth Gulf ; Greece ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.03. Geomorphology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
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    Slip-rates of blind thrusts in slow deforming areas: examples from the Po Plain (Italy) (2015)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-01
    Description: We calculate Plio-Pleistocene slip rates on the blind thrusts of the outer Northern Apennines fronts, that are the potential sources of highly damaging earthquakes, as shown by the MW 6.1-6.0, 2012 Emilia-Romagna seismic sequence. Slip rates are a key parameter for understanding the seismogenic potential of active fault systems and assessing the seismic hazard they pose, however, they are difficult to calculate in slow deforming areas like the Po Plain where faulting and folding is mostly blind. To overcome this, we developed a workflow which included the preparation of a homogeneous regional dataset of geological and geophysical subsurface information, rich in Plio- Pleistocene data. We then constructed 3D geological models around selected individual structures to decompact the clastic units and restore the slip on the fault planes. The back-stripping of the differential compaction eliminates unwanted overestimation of the slip rates due to compactioninduced differential subsidence. Finally, to restore the displacement we used different methods according to the deformation style, i.e. Fault Parallel Flow for faulted horizons, trishear and elastic dislocation modeling for fault-propagation folds. The result of our study is the compilation of a slip rate database integrating former published values with 28 new values covering a time interval from the Pliocene to the present. It contains data on 14 individual blind thrusts including the Mirandola thrust, seismogenic source of the 29 May 2012, MW 6.0 earthquake. Our study highlights that the investigated thrusts were active with rates ranging between 0.1-1.0 mm/yr during the last 1.81 Myr. The Mirandola thrust slipped at 0.86±0.38 mm/yr during the last 0.4 Myr. These rates calculated with an homogeneous methodology through the entire Po Plain can be charged entirely to the thrust activity and not to secondary effects like the differential compaction of sediments across the structures.
    Description: Published
    Description: 8–25
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Blind thrusts ; Slip rates ; 3D geological modeling ; Sediment decompaction ; Po Plain ; Northern Apennines ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
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    Earthquake-generated tsunamis in the Mediterranean Sea: scenarios of potential threats to Southern Italy (2008)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We calculated the impact on Southern Italy of a large set of tsunamis resulting from earthquakes generated by major fault zones of the Mediterranean Sea. Our approach merges updated knowledge on the regional tectonic setting and scenario-like calculations of expected tsunami impact. We selected three potential source zones located at short, intermediate and large distance from our target coastlines: the Southern Tyrrhenian thrust belt; the Tell-Atlas thrust belt; and the western Hellenic Arc. For each zone we determined a Maximum Credible Earthquake and described the geometry, kinematics and size of its associated Typical Fault. We then let the Typical Fault float along strike of its parent source zone and simulated all tsunamis it could trigger. Simulations are based on the solution of the nonlinear shallow water equations through a finite-difference technique. For each run we calculated the wave fields at desired simulation times and the maximum water elevation field, then produced travel-time maps and maximum wave-height profiles along the target coastlines. The results show a highly variable impact for tsunamis generated by the different source zones. For example, a large Hellenic Arc earthquake will produce a much higher tsunami wave (up to 5 m) than those of the other two source zones (up to 1.5 m). This implies that tsunami scenarios for Mediterranean Sea countries must necessarily be computed at the scale of the entire basin. Our work represents a pilot study for constructing a basin-wide tsunami scenario database to be used for tsunami hazard assessment and early warning.
    Description: Italian Civil Defense; Project “Development of new technologies for the protection of the Italian territory from natural hazards” funded by the Italian Ministry of University and Research
    Description: Published
    Description: B01301
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Scenari e mappe di pericolosità sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: Tsunamis ; Mediterranean Sea ; Seismotectonics ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.01. Analytical and numerical modeling ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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