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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2005. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Applications 15 (2005): 1036–1052, doi:10.1890/04-0434.
    Description: Boltonia decurrens is an endangered plant restricted to the Illinois River Valley. Its complex life cycle has evolved in response to the dynamics of the historic flood regime, which has changed dramatically in the last century due to the construction of navigation dams and agricultural levees. To explore the effects of these changes, we developed deterministic and stochastic matrix population models of the demography of Boltonia. We used periodic matrix models to incorporate intra-annual seasonal variation. We estimated parameters as a function of the timing of spring flood recession (early or late) and of growing season precipitation (high or low). Late floods and/or low precipitation reduce population growth (λ). Early floods and high precipitation lead to explosive population growth. Elasticity analysis shows that changes in floods and precipitation alter the life history pathways responsible for population growth, from annual to biennial and eventually clonal pathways. We constructed and analyzed a stochastic model in which flood timing and precipitation vary independently, and we computed the stochastic growth rate (log λs) and the variance growth rate (σ2) as functions of the frequency of late floods and low precipitation. Using historical data on floods and rainfall over the last 100 years, we found that log λs has declined as a result of hydrological changes accompanying the regulation of the river. Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that over that time the contribution of annual life history pathways to log λs has declined as the contributions of biennial and clonal pathways have increased. Over the same time period, σ2 has increased, in agreement with observations of large fluctuations in local B. decurrens populations. Undoubtedly, many plant and animal species evolved in concert with dynamic habitats and are now threatened by anthropogenic changes in those dynamics. The data and analyses used in this study can be applied to management and development strategies to preserve other dynamic systems.
    Description: This work was supported by grants to M. Smith from NSF (DEB 9509763, DED 9321517), USACE, Illinois Groundwater Consortium and USFWS, and an EPA STAR grant (U- 91578101-2) to P. Mettler. H. Caswell also received support from NSF grant OCE-9983976 and EPA grant R-82908901, and a Maclaurin Fellowship from the New Zealand Institute of Mathematics and its Applications.
    Keywords: Boltonia decurrens ; Conservation ; Elasticity ; Floodplain ; Flood regime ; LTRE ; Matrix population model ; Periodic matrix model ; Stochastic elasticity ; Stochastic environment ; Stochastic matrix model ; Threatened species
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Applications 25 (2015): 1725-1838, doi:10.1890/14-1740.1.
    Description: Deforestation and fragmentation influence the microclimate, vegetation structure, and composition of remaining patches of tropical forest. In the southern Amazon, at the frontier of cropland expansion, forests are converted and fragmented in a pattern that leaves standing riparian forests whose dimensions are mandated by the Brazilian National Forest Code. These altered riparian forests share many characteristics of well-studied upland forest fragments, but differ because they remain connected to larger areas of forest downstream, and because they may experience wetter soil conditions because reduction of forest cover in the surrounding watershed raises groundwater levels and increases stream runoff. We compared forest regeneration, structure, composition, and diversity in four areas of intact riparian forest and four areas each of narrow, medium, and wide altered riparian forests that have been surrounded by agriculture since the early 1980s. We found that seedling abundance was reduced by as much as 64% and sapling abundance was reduced by as much as 67% in altered compared to intact riparian forests. The most pronounced differences between altered and intact forest occurred near forest edges and within the narrowest sections of altered riparian forests. Woody plant species composition differed and diversity was reduced in altered forests compared to intact riparian forests. However, despite being fragmented for several decades, large woody plant biomass and carbon storage, the number of live or dead large woody plants, mortality rates, and the size distribution of woody plants did not differ significantly between altered and intact riparian forests. Thus, even in these relatively narrow forests with high edge : area ratios, we saw no evidence of the increases in mortality and declines in biomass that have been found in other tropical forest fragment studies. However, because of the changes in both species community and reduced regeneration, it is unclear how long this relative lack of change will be sustained. Additionally, Brazil recently passed a law in their National Forest Code allowing narrower riparian buffers than those studied here in restored areas, which could affect their long-term sustainability.
    Description: This research has been supported by a grant from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Science to Achieve Results (STAR) program (Award #: FP-91749001-0). Additional support was provided by NSF Award # DEB 0949370 and the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP).
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Amazon ; Brazil ; Composition ; Diversity ; Forest structure ; Fragmentation ; Riparian ecosystems
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Applications 21 (2011): 750–763, doi:10.1890/09-1957.1.
    Description: Tropical ecosystems play a large and complex role in the global carbon cycle. Clearing of natural ecosystems for agriculture leads to large pulses of CO2 to the atmosphere from terrestrial biomass. Concurrently, the remaining intact ecosystems, especially tropical forests, may be sequestering a large amount of carbon from the atmosphere in response to global environmental changes including climate changes and an increase in atmospheric CO2. Here we use an approach that integrates census-based historical land use reconstructions, remote-sensing-based contemporary land use change analyses, and simulation modeling of terrestrial biogeochemistry to estimate the net carbon balance over the period 1901–2006 for the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, which is one of the most rapidly changing agricultural frontiers in the world. By the end of this period, we estimate that of the state's 925 225 km2, 221 092 km2 have been converted to pastures and 89 533 km2 have been converted to croplands, with forest-to-pasture conversions being the dominant land use trajectory but with recent transitions to croplands increasing rapidly in the last decade. These conversions have led to a cumulative release of 4.8 Pg C to the atmosphere, with 80% from forest clearing and 20% from the clearing of cerrado. Over the same period, we estimate that the residual undisturbed ecosystems accumulated 0.3 Pg C in response to CO2 fertilization. Therefore, the net emissions of carbon from Mato Grosso over this period were 4.5 Pg C. Net carbon emissions from Mato Grosso since 2000 averaged 146 Tg C/yr, on the order of Brazil's fossil fuel emissions during this period. These emissions were associated with the expansion of croplands to grow soybeans. While alternative management regimes in croplands, including tillage, fertilization, and cropping patterns promote carbon storage in ecosystems, they remain a small portion of the net carbon balance for the region. This detailed accounting of a region's carbon balance is the type of foundation analysis needed by the new United Nations Collaborative Programmme for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD).
    Description: This work was supported by NASA’s Earth and Space Science Fellowship (G. L. Galford) and NASA’s Large-Scale Biosphere–Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (grant number NNG06GE20A).
    Keywords: Amazon ; CO2 fertilization ; Carbon emissions ; Cerrado ; Crops ; Global warming ; Land cover and land use change ; Mato Grosso, Brazil ; Pasture ; Soils ; Terrestrial ecosystems model ; United Nations Collaborative Programmme for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD)
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2005. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Applications 15 (2005): 2097–2108, doi:10.1890/04-1762.
    Description: We investigated the effects of fire on population growth rate and invasive spread of the perennial tussock grass Molinia caerulea. During the last decades, this species has invaded heathland communities in Western Europe, replacing typical heathland species such as Calluna vulgaris and Erica tetralix. M. caerulea is considered a major threat to heathland conservation. In 1996, a large and unintended fire destroyed almost one-third of the Kalmthoutse Heide, a large heathland area in northern Belgium. To study the impact of this fire on the population dynamics and invasive spread of M. caerulea, permanent monitoring plots were established both in burned and unburned heathland. The fate of each M. caerulea individual in these plots was monitored over four years (1997–2000). Patterns of seed dispersal were inferred from a seed germination experiment using soil cores sampled one month after seed rain at different distances from seed-producing plants. Based on these measures, we calculated projected rates of spread for M. caerulea in burned and unburned heathland. Elasticity and sensitivity analyses were used to determine vital rates that contributed most to population growth rate, and invasion speed. Invasion speed was, on average, three times larger in burned compared to unburned plots. Dispersal distances on the other hand, were not significantly different between burned and unburned plots indicating that differences in invasive spread were mainly due to differences in demography. Elasticities for fecundity and growth of seedlings and juveniles were higher for burned than for unburned plots, whereas elasticities for survival were higher in unburned plots. Finally, a life table response experiment (LTRE) analysis revealed that the effect of fire was mainly contributed by increases in sexual reproduction (seed production and germination) and growth of seedlings and juveniles. Our results clearly showed increased invasive spread of M. caerulea after fire, and call for active management guidelines to prevent further encroachment of the species and to reduce the probability of large, accidental fires in the future. Mowing of resprouted plants before flowering is the obvious management tactic to halt massive invasive spread of the species after fire.
    Description: This work was supported by the Flemish Fund for Scientific Research (FWO) to HJ, the U.S. National Science foundation (DEB-0235692, OCE-0083976), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (R-8290891) to MGN.
    Keywords: Disturbance ; Elasticity ; Fire ; Integrodifference equations ; Invasive spread ; LTRE ; Matrix population model ; Molinia caerulea ; Sensitivity
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  • 5
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    Institute of Physics
    In:  Bristol, Institute of Physics, vol. 8, no. Publ. No. 12, pp. 95-104, (ISBN 0-865-42078-5)
    Publication Date: 1986
    Keywords: Rock mechanics ; Fracture ; Boundary Element Method ; Elasticity ; Dynamic
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