ALBERT

Notizen: This paper examines the law and economics of informational regulation (IR) of environmental risks. Informational regulation here means regulation which provides to affected stakeholders information on the operations of regulated entities, usually with the expectation that such stakeholders will then exert pressure on these entities to comply with regulations in a manner which serves the interests of stakeholders. As such, IR reinforces and augments direct regulatory monitoring and enforcement through third-party monitoring and incentives. The paper provides two contrasting frameworks, from law and economics, to analyze the costs and benefits likely to arise from IR and concludes with a discussion of the appropriate scope of IR as a substitute for and complement of traditional environmental regulation and law.

Notizen: Regulations under Section 112(r) of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments require fixed facilities having threshold quantities of materials on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's list of regulated substances to disclose to the general public the expected offsite consequences of worst-case accidental chemical releases. This paper describes the communication practices of small firms in Delaware and New Jersey and the practical problems these facilities might encounter complying with the proposed rule. The paper reports an interesting difference between the apprehension voiced by small firms required to report worst-case release information and the public's apparent lack of interest in such information. Unlike the difficulty expected by small firms in calculating and communicating worst-case chemical release information, this paper includes some observations on the ability of large chemical firms to comply with the proposed requirements.

Notizen: EPA's rule of Risk Management Programs for Chemical Accidental Release Prevention applies to facilities that manufacture, process, use, store, or otherwise handle regulated substances at or above specified threshold quantities. EPA estimates that approximately 66,000 facilities nationwide will be regulated under the rule. This paper examines the use of a structured ISO 14000 mechanism as option-regulated facilities could elect for implementation of the rule. Under the ISO 14000 option, facilities would commit to additional obligations regarding information disclosure, discussions with potentially affected publics, and timely correction of deficiencies noted in annual ISO 14000 audits of their compliance with the Risk Management Program they submit to the EPA under the rule. In return, facilities would be granted significant relief in regard to both EPA audit frequency and the penalties that might be applied for any items of noncompliance with the rule noted during the course of implementing agency reviews of the facility. The paper concludes with a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of this option to potentially affected stakeholders.

Notizen: We present a critical assessment of the benchmark dose (BMD) method introduced by Crump(1) as an alternative method for setting a characteristic dose level for toxicant risk assessment. The no-observed-adverse-effect-level (NOAEL) method has been criticized because it does not use all of the data and because the characteristic dose level obtained depends on the dose levels and the statistical precision (sample sizes) of the study design. Defining the BMD in terms of a confidence bound on a point estimate results in a characteristic dose that also varies with the statistical precision and still depends on the study dose levels.(2) Indiscriminate choice of benchmark response level may result in a BMD that reflects little about the dose-response behavior available from using all of the data. Another concern is that the definition of the BMD for the quantal response case is different for the continuous response case. Specifically, defining the BMD for continuous data using a ratio of increased effect divided by the background response results in an arbitrary dependence on the natural background for the endpoint being studied, making comparison among endpoints less meaningful and standards more arbitrary. We define a modified benchmark dose as a point estimate using the ratio of increased effect divided by the full adverse response range which enables consistent placement of the benchmark response level and provides a BMD with a more consistent relationship to the dose-response curve shape.

Notizen: Currently, there is a trend away from the use of single (often conservative) estimates of risk to summarize the results of risk analyses in favor of stochastic methods which provide a more complete characterization of risk. The use of such stochastic methods leads to a distribution of possible values of risk, taking into account both uncertainty and variability in all of the factors affecting risk. In this article, we propose a general framework for the analysis of uncertainty and variability for use in the commonly encountered case of multiplicative risk models, in which risk may be expressed as a product of two or more risk factors. Our analytical methods facilitate the evaluation of overall uncertainty and variability in risk assessment, as well as the contributions of individual risk factors to both uncertainty and variability which is cumbersome using Monte Carlo methods. The use of these methods is illustrated in the analysis of potential cancer risks due to the ingestion of radon in drinking water.

Notizen: This paper describes the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's assessment of potential health risks associated with the possible widespread use of a manganese (Mn)-based fuel additive, methylcyclopentadienyl manganese tricarbonyl (MMT). This assessment was significant in several respects and may be instructive in identifying certain methodological issues of general relevance to risk assessment. A major feature of the inhalation health risk assessment was the derivation of Mn inhalation reference concentration (RfC) estimates using various statistical approaches, including benchmark dose and Bayesian analyses. The exposure assessment component used data from the Particle Total Exposure Assessment Methodology (PTEAM) study and other sources to estimate personal exposure levels of particulate Mn attributable to the permitted use of MMT in leaded gasoline in Riverside, CA, at the time of the PTEAM study; on this basis it was then possible to predict a distribution of possible future exposure levels associated with the use of MMT in all unleaded gasoline. Qualitative as well as quantitative aspects of the risk characterization are summarized, along with inherent uncertainties due to data limitations.

Notizen: Knowledge of the workforce's risk perceptions and attitudes to safety is necessary for the development of a safety culture, where each person accepts responsibility for working safely. The ACSNI Human Factors report stresses the importance of assessing workforce perceptions of risk to achieve a proper safety culture. Risk perception research has been criticized for insufficient analysis of the causal relationships between risk factors and perceived risk. The present study reports some of the factors which predicted risk perception in a sample of 622 employees from six UKCS offshore oil installations who completed a 15-section questionnaire. This paper focuses on the accuracy of workers’ risk perceptions and what underlying factors predict the perception of personal risk from both major and minor hazards.

Notizen: Many psychometric studies have investigated judgments concerning personal risks from technologies, activities or consumer products, but only a few studies have included judgments of risk to the environment. Thus, little is known about this aspect of environmental risk perception, and whether it differs from personal risk perception. This study investigates risk judgments for 30 consumer products of various types such as herbal remedies, mobile telephones, genetically engineered drugs, or garden pesticides. A survey was conducted in two German cities: Leipzig and West Berlin. In total, 408 subjects evaluated the consumer products with regard to personal and environmental risk (and other risk-related aspects) and whether they would recommend the product to others. The findings show statistically significant differences between the mean values of perceived personal risk and environmental risk for most products. Despite these differences, the rank order of mean personal risk and environmental risk judgments for the products is quite similar. However, separate analyses for each product reveal that correlations between perceived personal and environmental risk vary strongly across products. Multiple regression analyses with personal and environmental risk judgments as predictors and product recommendation as criterion, run separately for each consumer product, show that it is mainly the judgment of perceived personal risk that explains product recommendation. Perceived risk to the environment adds little explanatory power. The study also explores differences in judgments of personal and environmental risk with regard to two sociodemographic variables: location (former East Germany vs. West Germany) and gender. Differences in both types of risk judgments are found with regard to location but not for gender.

Notizen: To assess the health benefits gained from the use of cleaner burning gasoline, an analysis was conducted of changes in the atmospheric concentration of eight VOCs: acetaldehyde, benzene, 1,3-butadiene, ethylbenzene, formaldehyde, POM, toluene, and xylenes resulting from the use of reformulated gasoline and oxyfuel containing the additive MTBE. Modeled ambient air concentrations of VOCs were used to assess three seasonally-based scenarios: baseline gasoline compared to (a) summer MTBE:RFG, (b) winter MTBE:RFG, and (c) MTBE oxyfuel. The model predicts that the addition of MTBE to RFG or oxyfuel will decrease acetaldehyde, benzene, 1,3-butadiene and POM, but increase formaldehyde tailpipe emissions. The increased formaldehyde emissions, however, will be offset by the reduction of formaldehyde formation in the atmosphere from other VOCs. Using a range of plausible risk estimates, the analysis predicts a positive health benefit, i.e., a decline in cancer incidence associated with use of MTBE:RFG and MTBE oxyfuel. Using EPA cancer risk estimates, reduction in 1,3-butadiene exposure accounts for the greatest health benefit while reduction of benzene exposure accounts for the greatest health benefits based on alternative risk estimates. An analysis of microenvironment monitoring data indicates that most exposures to VOCs are significantly below levels of concern based on established margin-of-safety standards. The analysis does suggest, however, that health effects associated with short-term exposures to acetaldehyde and benzene may warrant further investigation.

Notizen: In some areas where oxygenated fuel programs have been implemented, there have been widespread complaints of non-specific health effects attributed to the gasoline. There are a number of hypotheses that can account for this apparent association. This paper examines the hypothesis that the use of oxy-fuel (either oxygenated gasoline or reformulated gasoline) results in exposure of the general population to one or more chemicals at concentrations that cause toxicologic injury. Although several oxygenates can be used in oxy-fuels, this analysis focuses on MTBE because it is the most widely used oxygenate and because the database of relevant toxicologic data is greatest for this oxygenate. The causal assessment is based on an evaluation of the qualitative and quantitative plausibility that oxygenated fuel-related exposures have toxicological effects, and the epidemiologic studies that directly test the hypothesis that the use of oxygenated fuels causes adverse health effects. The plausibility that chemical exposures related to oxy-fuel use cause toxicological effects is very low. This determination is based on consideration of the exposure-response and time-action profiles for relevant toxicological effects of MTBE in animals, experimental MTBE exposure studies in humans, and the possibility that the addition of MTBE to gasoline results in toxicologically significant qualitative and/or quantitative changes in gasoline-related exposures. Similarly, the epidemiologic studies of oxy-fuel exposed cohorts do not support a causal relationship between oxy-fuel use and adverse health effects. Although the data are insufficient to rule the possibility of unique sensitivity in a small segment of the population, the strength of the evidence and the availability of other more plausible explanations for the health complaints reported in association with oxy-fuels support a high degree of confidence in the conclusion that MTBE-containing oxygenated fuels are not the cause of acute toxicity in the general population.

Notizen: Factors such as hazard type and source credibility have been identified as important in the establishment of effective strategies for risk communication. The elaboration likelihood model was adapted to investigate the potential impact of hazard type, information source, and persuasive content of information on individual engagement in elaborative, or thoughtful, cognitions about risk messages. One hundred sixty respondents were allocated to one of eight experimental groups, and the effects of source credibility, persuasive content of information and hazard type were systematically varied. The impact of the different factors on beliefs about the information and elaborative processing examined. Low credibility was particularly important in reducing risk perceptions, although persuasive content and hazard type were also influential in determining whether elaborative processing occurred.

Notizen: A Score Comparison Method (SCM), for use in comparative risk projects, is described. It provides a degree of analytical guidance for those undertaking to integrate environmental issues which have been placed into separate, qualitative rankings according to different types of risk into a single, qualitative, integrated risk ranking. Its use in an actual case is shown.

Notizen: Recent reviews of epidemiological evidence on the relation between exposure to diesel exhaust (DE) and lung cancer risk have reached conflicting conclusions, ranging from belief that there is sufficient evidence to conclude that DE is a human lung carcinogen (California EPA, 1994) to conclusions that there is inadequate evidence to support a causal association between DE and human lung cancer (Muscat and Wynder, 1995). Individual studies also conflict, with both increases and decreases in relative risks of lung cancer mortality being cited with 95% statistical confidence. On balance, reports of elevated risk outnumber reports of reduced risk. This paper reexamines the evidence linking DE exposures to lung cancer risk. After briefly reviewing animal data and biological mechanisms, it surveys the relevant epidemiological literature and examines possible explanations for the discrepancies. These explanations emphasize the distinction between statistical associations, which have been found in many studies, and causal associations, which appear not to have been established. Methodological threats to valid causal inference are identified and new approaches for controlling them are proposed using recent techniques from artificial intelligence (AI) and computational statistics. These threats have not been adequately controlled for in previous epidemiological studies. They provide plausible noncausal explanations for the reported increases in relative risks, making it impossible to infer causality between DE exposure and lung cancer risk from these studies. A key contribution is to show how recent techniques developed in the AI-and-statistics literature can help clarify the causal interpretation of complex multivariate data sets used in epidemiological risk assessments. Applied to the key study of Garshick et al. (1988), these methods show that DE concentration has no positive causal association with occupational lung cancer mortality risk.

Notizen: The use of critical effects in the determination of occupational exposure limits (OELs) in Sweden is subjected to a statistical study. Many of the present OELs are high in relation to known noeffect levels and effect levels, and the degree of protection has a surprisingly weak correlation with the seriousness of the adverse effect. Several proposals for improved procedures are put forward. One of these is to supplement the concept of critical effects with that of dominant effects. A dominant effect of a substance is a health effect that is at some concentration the most serious health effect.

Notizen: A purely stochastic Monte Carlo model is used to compare the relative midair collision course probabilities and mean closing velocities of four systems of rules for aircraft cruising altitudes as a function of altitude error: (1) current U.S. federal rules, (2) random altitudes, and (3) two proposed alternatives to the current rules. This model increments error while: (1) counting collisions among cruising pairs of aircraft following the four rules being tested on random headings between randomly placed airports, and (2) calculating mean closing velocities for each rule. The calculations verify that: (1) federal rules increase collision course probabilities by about four times more than for a chaotic system of aircraft cruising at randomly selected altitudes, (2) risk is directly proportional to the level of compliance, and (3) mean closing velocities resulting from the current rule are slightly less than for random altitudes, while being almost twice as high as for the proposed rules. High closing velocities are shown to increase the collision probability.

Notizen: To estimate potential public health benefits from ozone (O3) pollution reduction attributable to the use of methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE) in gasoline, O3 dose-response estimates from the biomedical literature were combined with model estimates of O3 reduction. Modeling employed EPA MOBILE5a and Complex models to predict emission changes, industry AQIRP techniques to predict ambient O3 changes, and the National Exposure Model to predict human exposures. Human health effects considered were lung function decrements and respiratory irritant symptoms (using dose-response functions measured in laboratory and field studies), and increased death rates (using concentration-response functions inferred statistically from public-health data). Other reported health effects, such as lung inflammation, increases in asthma attacks, and hospitalizations, were not addressed because of inadequate dose-response information. Even for the health responses considered, quantitation of improvements due to MTBE use is problematical, because MTBE affects only a small percentage of existing O3 pollution, and because exposure-response relationships are not well understood for population subgroups most likely to be affected. Nevertheless, it is reasonable to conclude that even small MTBE-associated reductions in peak ambient O3 levels (1–5 ppb, according to model estimates) should yield considerable public health benefits. Tens of millions of Americans are potentially exposed to O3 in the concentration range associated with health effects. Even if only a small percentage of them are susceptible, any incremental reduction in O3 (as with MTBE use) must mitigate or prevent effects for a meaningful number of people. Better quantitative estimates of benefit must await a more detailed understanding of each link in the chain of causation.

Notizen: Methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) can enter surface water and groundwater through wet atmospheric deposition or as a result of fuel leaks and spills. About 30% of the U.S. population lives in areas where MTBE is in regular use. Ninety-five percent of this population is unlikely to be exposed to MTBE in tap water at concentrations exceeding 2 ppb, and most will be exposed to concentrations that are much lower and may be zero. About 5% of this population may be exposed to higher levels of MTBE in tap water, resulting from fuel tank leaks and spills into surface or groundwater used for potable water supplies. This paper describes the concentration ranges found and anticipated in surface and groundwater, and estimates the distribution of doses experienced by humans using water containing MTBE to drink, prepare food, and shower/bathe. The toxic properties (including potency) of MTBE when ingested, inhaled, and in contact with the skin are summarized. Using a range of human toxic potency values derived from animal studies, margins of exposure (MOE) associated with alternative chronic exposure scenarios are estimated to range from 1700 to 140,000. Maximum concentrations of MTBE in tap water anticipated not to cause adverse health effects are determined to range from 700 to 14,000 ppb. The results of this analysis demonstrate that no health risks are likely to be associated with chronic and subchronic human exposures to MTBE in tap water. Although some individuals may be exposed to very high concentrations of MTBE in tap water immediately following a localized spill, these exposures are likely to be brief in duration due to large-scale dilution and rapid volatilization of MTBE, the institution of emergency response and remediation measures to minimize human exposures, and the low taste and odor thresholds of MTBE which ensure that its presence in tap water is readily detected at concentrations well below the threshold for human injury.

Notizen: Methods for evaluating the hazards associated with noncancer responses with epidemiologic data are considered. The methods for noncancer risk assessment have largely been developed for experimental data, and are not always suitable for the more complex structure of epidemiologic data. In epidemiology, the measurement of the response and the exposure is often either continuous or dichotomous. For a continuous noncancer response modeled with multiple regression, a variety of endpoints may be examined: (1) the concentration associated with absolute or relative decrements in response; (2) a threshold concentration associated with no change in response; and (3) the concentration associated with a particular added risk of impairment. For a dichotomous noncancer response modeled with logistic regression, concentrations associated with specified added/extra risk or with a threshold responses may be estimated. No-observed-effect concentrations may also be estimated for categorizations of exposures for both continuous and dichotomous responses but these may depend on the arbitrary categories chosen. Respiratory function in miners exposed to coal dust is used to illustrate these methods.

Notizen: EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) and later documents provide guidance for estimating exposures received from suburban and agricultural activity patterns and lifestyles. However, these methods are not suitable for typical tribal communities whose members pursue, at least in part, traditional lifestyles. These lifestyles are derived from a long association with all of the resources in a particular region. We interviewed 35 members of a Columbia River Basin tribe to develop a lifestyle-based subsistence exposure scenario that represents a midrange exposure that a traditional tribal member would receive. This scenario provides a way to partially satisfy Executive Order 12898 on environmental justice, which requires a specific evaluation of impacts from federal actions to peoples with subsistence diets. Because a subsistence diet is only a portion of what is important to a traditional lifestyle, we also used information obtained from the interviews to identify parameters for evaluating impacts to environmental and sociocultural qualify of life.

Notizen: On the basis of discussion and analysis during and following an ATSDR science panel on the bioavailability of mercury in soils, it is apparent that the default assumption of 100% relative bioavailability for mercury-contaminated soils is excessively conservative. However, current knowledge does not allow the development of default assumptions or guidelines for determining relative bioavailability of mercury in soils. Until such default assumptions or guidelines can be developed, site-specific assays of bioavailability, preferably using either animal bioassays or validated in vitro techniques, may provide the best approach for estimating soil-mercury bioavailability.

Notizen: Method for environmental impact modeling involving uncertainty, overcoming the disadvantage of providing only one upper bound based on accumulated effects from all extreme events. This method provides a suite of upper and lower bounds based on any subset of such extreme events, to be chosen among by the decision maker.

Notizen: Residents of four northern communities were surveyed about Atomic Energy of Canada Limited's proposal to site an underground repository for high-level nuclear waste somewhere in the Canadian Shield. Opposition to the repository was relatively strong in all communities, but was strongest among aboriginal respondents. Path analysis revealed that trust in nuclear regulators, faith in science and technology, and anticipated net costs were important mediators of this effect. Aboriginals were less trusting, exhibited less faith in science and technology, and perceived the costs associated with the repository to be higher than their nonaboriginal counterparts. No support was found for the hypothesis that, after controlling for aboriginal status, financially insecure individuals would display greater support for the nuclear waste repository than financially secure individuals. Policy implications for balancing perceived risks and siting needs are discussed.

Notizen: This paper demonstrates a new methodology for probabilistic public health risk assessment using the first-order reliability method. The method provides the probability that incremental lifetime cancer risk exceeds a threshold level, and the probabilistic sensitivity quantifying the relative impact of considering the uncertainty of each random variable on the exceedance probability. The approach is applied to a case study given by Thompson et al.(1) on cancer risk caused by ingestion of benzene-contaminated soil, and the results are compared to that of the Monte Carlo method. Parametric sensitivity analyses are conducted to assess the sensitivity of the probabilistic event with respect to the distribution parameters of the basic random variables, such as the mean and standard deviation. The technique is a novel approach to probabilistic risk assessment, and can be used in situations when Monte Carlo analysis is computationally expensive, such as when the simulated risk is at the tail of the risk probability distribution.

Notizen: There is a need for plant-specific distributions of incidence and failure rates rather than distributions from pooled data which are based on the “common incidence rate” assumption. The so-called superpopulation model satisfies this need through a practically appealing approach that accounts for the variability over the population of plants. Unfortunately, the chosen order in which the integrals with respect to the individual plant rates λi, (i= 0, 1…, m) and the parameters a, β of the Γ-population distribution are solved seems to drive the solution close to the common incidence rate distribution. It is shown that the solution obtained from interchanging the order and solving the integrals with respect to the individual plant rates by Monte Carlo simulation very quickly provides the plant specific distribution. This differing solution behaviour may be due to the lack of uniform convergence over (α, β, λI, (i= 1,…, m))-space. Examples illustrate the difference that may be observed.

Notizen: Opportunities to improve our information about risk continue to arise and lead decision makers to indirectly address the issue of the value of improved information through resource allocation decisions. Statistical decision analysis techniques provide an analytical framework for valuing information explicitly in the context of regulatory decision making. This paper provides estimates of the value of improved national estimates of perchloroethylene (perc) exposure from U.S. dry cleaners in the context of EPA's recently promulgated National Emissions Standard for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) with emphasis on exposure information. Consistent with the NESHAP decision, we relied on EPA's technology and economic assessments. In this first cut analysis, estimates of the exposures of workers, consumers of dry cleaning services, and the general public are probabilistically characterized to reflect uncertainty about exposure and potency. We consider the net benefits of the different control options by assessing the associated changes in the total annual population risks and valuing them in monetary terms, with no constraints placed on maximum individual risks. The results suggest that the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) about potency exceeds the EVPI about exposure. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate how the choices of the valuation parameters and distributions used to characterize uncertainty in the model affect the estimates of the value of information.

Notizen: Ozone depletion potential (ODP) represents the cumulative ozone depletion induced by a particular halocarbon relative to a reference gas (usually trichlorofluoromethane, CFC-11). We focus on ODP estimation for methyl bromide. Previous attempts at its estimation have assumed that components of the ODP equation are lognormally distributed. By considering a wide range of modeling scenarios, we show that this restriction (which is based on computational convenience rather than experimental evidence) has obscured the true uncertainty in the ODP value. Moreover, when publishing point estimates for the ODP value, previous authors have given either mean or median values. We submit that a more appropriate choice for a point estimate is the mode since the distribution of ODP is skewed and since the mode is by definition, the most likely value. For each modeling scenario considered, modal values are given. In general, we find these ODP point estimates are considerably lower than those published elsewhere.

Notizen: Most cultural approaches to risk management deal with the connections between the forms of social relations within groups and the risk concerns of those groups. According to these theories, a certain limited set of different relational forms (usually three, four, or five) lead to specific, different and conflicting, risk concerns. In contrast to these theories, cosmopolitanism is an approach to culture that focuses, not on forms of sociality, but on changes among forms—expansions and contractions in the inclusivity of forms and movement by persons from one form of sociality to another. Relative to other cultural theories, cosmopolitanism thus is much more concerned with the solution of risk management problems than with their origins. Cosmopolitanism can be thought of as a cultural continuum, with cosmopolitanism at one end and pluralism at the other. Cosmopolitan persons are more open to cultural change—and thus the solution of risk management problems. In this article, we outline our new theory of cosmopolitanism, describe a method for measuring it and present an experimental study that tests some implications of the theory. Results from the study support the theory by showing that, compared to pluralistic respondents, cosmopolitan respondents are more inclusive in their risk management judgments—that is, they express equal concern for a local and a national issue, whereas the pluralistic respondents express greater concern in the local case. We discuss the risk management implications of a cosmopolitan approach to culture.

Notizen: The selection among distributional forms for inputs into uncertainty and variability (e.g., Monte Carlo) analyses is an important task. This paper considers the importance of distributional selection by examining the overall and tail behavior of the lognormal, Weibull, gamma, and inverse gaussian distributions. It is concluded that at low relative standard deviation (below 1), there is less of a difference between upper tail behavior among the distributions than at higher RSD values. Sample sizes in excess of 200 are required to reliably distinguish between distributional forms at the higher RSD values. The likelihood statistic appears to offer a reasonable approach to distributional discrimination, and it, or a similar approach, should be incorporated into distributional fitting procedures used in risk analysis.

Notizen: Quantitative models of the relationship between exposure to chemical carcinogens and carcinogenic response are useful for hypothesis evaluation and risk assessment. The degree to which such models accurately depict the underlying biology is often a function of the need for mathematical tractability. When closed-form expressions are used, the need for tractability may significantly limit their complexity. This problem can be minimized by using numerical computer simulation methods to solve the model, thereby allowing more complex and realistic descriptions of the biology to be used. Unfortunately, formal methods of parameter estimation for numerical models are not as well developed as they are for analytical models. In this report, we develop a formal parameter estimation routine and apply it to a numerical clonal growth simulation (CGS) model of the growth of preneoplastic lesions consisting of initiated cells. An iterative bisection algorithm was used to estimate parameters from time-course data on the number of initiated cells and the number of clones of these cells. The algorithm successfully estimated parameter values to give a best fit to the observed dataset and was robust vis-à-vis starting values of the parameters. Furthermore, the number of data points to which the model was fit, the number of stochastic repetitions and other variables were examined with respect to their effects on the parameter estimates. This algorithm facilitates the application of CGS models for hypothesis evaluation and risk assessment by ensuring uniformity and reproducibility of parameter estimates.

Notizen: An early attempt to measure risk was the 1738 paper of Bernoulli in which he describes the well-known Saint Petersburg paradox. Subsequent writers have considered this game to draw conclusions about the nature of risk or to test newly devised risk models. We analyze the paradox, evaluate various theories which have been advanced to resolve it, and briefly examine the implications of these theories on the wider area of risk analysis.

Notizen: This paper presents a survey and comparative evaluation of methods which have been developed for the determination of uncertainties in accident consequences and probabilities, for use in probabilistic risk assessment. The methods considered are: analytic techniques, Monte Carlo simulation, response surface approaches, differential sensitivity techniques, and evaluation of classical statistical confidence bounds. It is concluded that only the response surface and differential sensitivity approaches are sufficiently general and flexible for use as overall methods of uncertainty analysis in probabilistic risk assessment. The other methods considered, however, are very useful in particular problems.

Notizen: This study analyzes the risk involved in the chlorine industry in North America. A hypothetical chlorine plant with diaphragm electrolytic cells and a chlorine production of 300,000 metric tons per year was studied. Risk in terms of man-days lost per year was evaluated for nine stages in the manufacture and distribution of chlorine. The highest risk was found to be “Maintenance of the Chlorine Plant” (37.6% of total man-days lost per year). “Raw Material Acquisition for Materials in Chlorine Plant” (1.3%) and “Storage of Chlorine at Chlorine Plant” (0.3%) both had very little risk. “Transport of Chlorine to User by Rail, Pipeline, Barge, and Truck Combined” also gave relatively low risk (10.2%), an important result since this risk is involuntary and is the category that usually causes the most concern. The kind of risk evaluation presented here, while relatively new, should be helpful in identifying those areas in industry on which time and money can be spent with maximum benefit to reduce risk.

Notizen: U.S. Government agencies have adopted a linear-no-threshold dose-response relationship for chemical carcinogens, and have set up a Carcinogen Assessment Group (CAG) to determine the proportionality constants in these relationships. Their results are summarized for the carcinogenic elements Be, Cr, Ni, As, and Cd. It is shown that when effects are integrated over ∼105 years, an atom of these elements in the ground has a reasonable chance (10-4-10-1)of being ingested orally by a human. From this it is shown that, over this time period, producing electricity by coal burning causes 320 fatalities/GWe-yr and all coal burning in the United States causes 74,000 fatalities/year. Commercial use of these carcinogenic elements causes the following numbers of fatalities/yr: Be–900, Cr–87,000, Ni–10,000, As–62,000, and Cd–230,000. Use of CdS and GaAs photovoltaics would cause 2200 and 66 fatalities/GWe-yr, respectively, and production of construction materials for photovoltaic arrays would cause 11 fatalities/GWe-yr through use of coal. The calculational methods are derived from those used in risk assessments of radioactive wastes, and their questionable aspects apply equally to those assessments. It is shown that, contrary to present beliefs, it is much safer to dump these elements into rivers than to bury them in the ground, and by far the safest procedure is to dump them in the oceans.

Notizen: Two methodological steps in the study of peoples’concerns are elicitation and classification. Elicitation of concerns through analytical methods such as surveys can be supplemented with techniques that perform more diversively. We present two examples of how this can be accomplished: one in the expert community and one in the lay community. A classification taxonomy is a subjective choice of the researcher and it can only be evaluated against the stated objectives of the research. We present a classification schema that is explicitly oriented toward diagnosing the substantive needs of public discourses about risk decision making. To illustrate how concerns can be elicited in a social setting and how this classification tool can be applied, we report on a public participation exercise in New Jersey where citizens discussed the impacts of land application of sewage sludge at an experimental farm.

Notizen: As interest in quantitative analysis of joint uncertainty and interindividual variability (JUV) in risk grows, so does the need for related computational shortcuts. To quantify JUV in risk, Monte Carlo methods typically require nested sampling of JUV in distributed inputs, which is cumbersome and time-consuming. Two approximation methods proposed here allow simpler and more rapid analysis. The first consists of new upper-bound JUV estimators that involve only uncertainty or variability, not both, and so never require nested sampling to calculate. The second is a discrete-probability-calculus procedure that uses only the mean and one upper-tail mean for each input in order to estimate mean and upper-bound risk, which procedure is simpler and more intuitive than similar ones in use. Application of these methods is illustrated in an assessment of cancer risk from residential exposures to chloroform in Kanawah Valley, West Virginia. Because each of the multiple exposure pathways considered in this assessment had separate modeled sources of uncertainty and variability, the assessment illustrates a realistic case where a standard Monte Carlo approach to JUV analysis requires nested sampling. In the illustration, the first proposed method quantified JUV in cancer risk much more efficiently than corresponding nested Monte Carlo calculations. The second proposed method also nearly duplicated JUV-related and other estimates of risk obtained using Monte Carlo methods. Both methods were thus found adequate to obtain basic risk estimates accounting for JUV in a realistically complex risk assessment. These methods make routine JUV analysis more convenient and practical.

Notizen: A quantitative approach to risk management for accidents in light water nuclear power reactors is proposed to serve as one focus for discussion. In this proposal risk management is divided into two major tasks: the predominantly social and political task of setting the safety goals and the technical task of estimating the risks and deciding whether the safety goals have been met. The proposed safety goals include limits on the following: risk to the individual of early death or delayed cancer death; overall societal risk of early or delayed death; and the frequency of core melt accidents as well as the frequency of containment failure, given a core melt. Also included are a small element of risk aversion and an “as low as reasonably achievable” (ALARA) approach with a cost-effectviness criterion which includes both economic and health effects.

Notizen: A national symposium of risk communication practitioners and researchers was held in 1994 to discuss next steps to improve government agencies’risk communication practices. The symposium focused on three issues which a survey of researchers and practitioners indicated were priorities for risk communication research: integrating outside concerns into agency decision-making; communicating with communities of different races, ethnic backgrounds and incomes; and evaluation of risk communication. There are indications that the working assumptions underlying these issues are shifting in several distinctive ways. For example, a shift from simply communicating risk to forging partnerships with communities was clearly evident throughout the symposium. Communicating with different social, ethnic, and racial groups gained recognition as a vital component of the risk communication research agenda. Agencies themselves should be the subject of study, according to many symposium participants who were concerned less about the so-called irrationality of the public and more about the reluctance of agencies to encourage risk communication.

Notizen: Despite the increased interest in risk communication among government agencies, there is evidence that agencies’risk communication practices lag. We conducted a study to explore which risk communication research would be most important to improve government agencies’risk communication practices. Qualitative interviews and a survey of 145 risk communication experts based in academic institutions and government agencies explored how important research on each of 48 topics would be to improving agencies’risk communication efforts. Respondents identified topics within three areas as priorities for further research: 1) involving communities in agency decisionmaking; 2) communicating with communities of different races, ethnic backgrounds, and incomes; and 3) evaluating risk communication. Both practitioners and researchers responded to additional statements about agencies’risk communication practices with reservations about staff and managers’commitment to effective communication about environmental issues. We discuss the implications of these findings.

Notizen: This paper estimates the number of workers in the United States who were occupationally exposed to asbestos during and after World War II and assesses the impact of this exposure on overall cancer mortality. The results suggest that over half of the estimated 7–8 million potentially exposed workers employed between 1940 and 1970 may still be alive and at risk of dying from some form of asbestos-related cancer. While the maximum number of excess cancer deaths associated with this occupational exposure is likely to occur sometime in this decade, such deaths will continue to be seen for many years thereafter. At their peak, these deaths may account for an estimated 3% of the annual cancer death toll, with an associated range of 1.4–4.4%.

Notizen: A comparison of the costs and benefits of 57 lifesaving programs reveals striking disparities across agencies and programs in cost/life saved and even greater disparities in cost/life-year saved. Within a broad range the monetary value assigned to the benefits of averting a death usually does not alter the policy implications of the analyses. The findings suggest that despite the substantial disagreements and uncertainties in the theory and practice of valuing lives, careful quantitative analysis can be helpful in setting health, safety, and environmental priorities.

Notizen: The development of the techniques of risk assessment and management are considered, noting the early emphasis on quantitative approaches. The basic strategies available to governments for risk management—educational, economic, and regulatory—are discussed. Six specific issues are considered with reference to the Canadian experience and the lessons learned. These are: the separation of risk assessment from risk management; the uncertainties of science; the weakness of numerical comparisons; too great a trust in education; the Great White Father Syndrome; and regulatory perils. This examination shows a number of inadequacies in the application of risk management techniques. It is suggested that knowledge of the limitations of quantitative assessment in its application to decision-making together with the involvement of those affected by the risk in the decision-making processes will lead to greater success.

Notizen: DDT, DDE, and DDD have been detected at elevated concentrations in sediments and fish of the Yakima River, its tributaries and drainages. An assessment was conducted to evaluate the public health significance of eating fish from the river. This was accomplished by establishing a daily intake level of DDT for the population of greatest concern, and comparing this level to a tolerable daily intake. The most sensitive and highly exposed group was determined to be breastfeeding infants. Infant daily intakes of DDT, based on estimated mother's DDT-breast milk levels, were compared to a recommended tolerable daily intake. Results indicate that mothers who frequently consume Yakima River bottom-feeding fish could have breast milk DDT concentrations sufficiently high to expose their infants to levels above the tolerable daily intake.

Notizen: Boom reviewed in this article. Concepts of Inhalation Toxicology Edited by Roger O. McClellan and Rogene F. Henderson Risk By John Adams The Common Sense for a First Course in Statistics By T. P. Hutchinson

Notizen: The research has been aimed at answering two questions: (1) What factors impact perception and acceptance of technological and environmental hazards? (2) Why are rich societies involved more in protecting their environment and health than poor societies? Data has been collected from representative samples of two countries—Poland and Sweden. The results indicate that (1) contrary to earlier findings, the inverse relations between perceived benefits and dangers of hazards has not been observed, (2) acceptance of a risk has been mostly influenced by perceived benefits, (3) rejection of a risk has been mostly influenced by its perceived harmful consequences. Concerning the second question, it has been found that: (1) perceived hazard's danger and benefit is not the only factor that impacts its acceptance, and (2) a broader economic context can impact acceptance (tolerance) of hazards. It has been found that being aware of high dangers and not very high benefits of hazardous activities, Poles still have accepted them. Thus, Poles seem to follow an old proverb: “When one does not have what one likes, one has to like what one has.”

Notizen: The purpose of this paper is to undertake a statistical analysis to specify empirical distributions and to estimate univariate parametric probability distributions for air exchange rates for residential structures in the United States. To achieve this goal, we used data compiled by the Brookhaven National Laboratory using a method known as the perfluorocarbon tracer (PFT) technique. While these data are not fully representative of all areas of the country or all housing types, they are judged to be by far the best available. The analysis is characterized by four key points: the use of data for 2,844 households; a four-region breakdown based on heating degree days, a best available measure of climatic factors affecting air exchange rates; estimation of lognormal distributions as well as provision of empirical (frequency) distributions; and provision of these distributions for all of the data, for the data segmented by the four regions, for the data segmented by the four seasons, and for the data segmented by a 16 region by season breakdown. Except in a few cases, primarily for small sample sizes, air exchange rates were found to be well fit by lognormal distributions (adjusted R2 0.95). The empirical or lognormal distributions may be used in indoor air models or as input variables for probabilistic human health risk assessments.

Notizen: The grounds for official policy claims that environmental tobacco smoke is a major health risk remain speculative. In scientific terms, the evidence is compatible with either a slight increase or a decrease of risks, but is impotent to certify either conclusion. Official advocacy of unproven hypotheses presented as valid scientific conclusions raises serious ethical questions, and threatens the credibility of risk assessment as a legitimate policy instrument.

Notizen: We investigate fair processes for societal decisions that involve different risks and benefits to different groups. A fair decision-making process is particularly important for decisions such as siting hazardous facilities. We experimentally evaluate the impact of alternative decision processes on the final choice of hypothetical facility sites and the resulting benefit and risk distribution to groups. The experimental task required choice among many alternative sites for a hazardous facility. Sites differ by the distribution of risks and benefits to each of two communities, and in the attractiveness of the sites to each community. Subjects were divided into three groups: individuals who judged the best site in the role of arbitrators, pairs of negotiators with one person representing each of the two communities, and trios who identified the best site in the role of a siting jury. We found the choices of negotiating and siting jury groups tended to emphasize the communities’preferences compared to the individual arbitrators who tended to focus on balancing the distribution of risks and benefits. Also, undergraduate psychology students, regardless of the dispute resolution mechanism, tended to display more emphasis on the risks and benefits, and graduate business students tended to focus more on the communities’preferences.

Notizen: Research and experience have shown that it can be difficult to get citizens to pay attention to risk messages and preparedness information in the absence of an actual emergency. As the use computerized systems that alert the public to hazards by automatically ringing their home phones increases, we thought it important to ask if tests of these “call down” systems can also be used to convey preemergency information. We worked with a local government to add instructions on how to shelter-in-place to the message on a routine test of a call down system. We then surveyed a test group and a control group before and after the test call and a second control group on after the call. The results indicate that the test call raised awareness of the emergency notification system without generating undue concern about the possibility of a chemical accident. Those who received the test call demonstrated significant improvements in their knowledge of how to shelter-in-place while no such improvement was observed in those who did not get the call. While the nature of the sample used in this study limits generalizability, we feel this outcome is positive enough to warrant further exploration of this method of disseminating risk information and preparedness instructions.

Notizen: Developmental anomalies induced by toxic chemicals may be identified using laboratory experiments with rats, mice or rabbits. Multinomial responses of fetuses from the same mother are often positively correlated, resulting in overdispersion relative to multinomial variation. In this article, a simple data transformation based on the concept of generalized design effects due to Rao-Scott is proposed for dose-response modeling of developmental toxicity. After scaling the original multinomial data using the average design effect, standard methods for analysis of uncorrected multinomial data can be applied. Benchmark doses derived using this approach are comparable to those obtained using generalized estimating equations with an extended Dirichlet-trinomial covariance function to describe the dispersion of the original data. This empirical agreement, coupled with a large sample theoretical justification of the Rao-Scott transformation, confirms the applicability of the statistical methods proposed in this article for developmental toxicity risk assessment.

Notizen: A unified approach for calculating the core melt frequency of a specific reactor caused by both internal and external accident initiators is demonstrated. Two classes of internal initiators are examined: transients, of which turbine trip is the chosen example, and loss-of-coolant events of various sizes. The concepts of hazard and fragility analysis first proposed for seismic risk analysis are linked to the frequencies of internal initiating events, and to the plant response as a function of the event intensity. Uncertainties are propagated using discrete probability distribution (DPD) arithmetic. Advantages of this approach include mathematical and conceptual consistency, and an improved uncertainty analysis, which are important considerations if risk studies are to be utilized in decision-making based on quantitative safety goals.

Notizen: After an extensive review and analysis of the scientific evidence on the respiratory health effects of passive smoking, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency concluded that environmental tobacco smoke causes lung cancer in adult nonsmokers and increases the risk of a variety of non-cancer respiratory disorders, especially in children. This article is a response to claims in Dr. Gio Gori's article “Policy Against Science: The Case of Environmental Tobacco Smoke,” appearing in the same issue of this journal, that such conclusions are unwarranted. This response focuses only on the respiratory health effects of environmental tobacco smoke.

Notizen: Book Reviews in this ArticleTheory of Moves By Steven J. BrainsPesticides in the Diets of Infants and Children By the National Research Council National Academy PressPublic Reactions to Nuclear Waste: Citizens’Views of Repository Siting Edited by Riley E. Dunlap, Michael E. Kraft, and Eugene A. RosaBureaucracy in Crisis: Three Mile Island, the Shuttle Challenger, and Risk Assessment By Maureen Hogan CasamayouMaking National Energy Policy Edited by Hans H. LandsbergPrevention and Control of Accidental Releases of Hazardous Gases By Vasilis M. FthenakisThe Measure of Environmental and Resource Values: Theory and Methods By A. Myrick FreemanThe Bottom Line of Green is Black: Strategies for Creating Profitable and Environmentally Sound Business By Tedd Saunders and Loretta McGovernThe Geological Aspects of Waste Management By Stephen M. TestaThe Great Earthquake meriment: Risk Communication and Public Action By Dennis S. Mileti and Colleen FitzpatrickExposure Factors Sourcebook By the American Industrial Health Council

Notizen: A benchmark dose (BMD) is the dose of a substance that corresponds to a prescribed increase in the response (called the benchmark response or BMR) of a health effect. A statistical lower bound on the benchmark dose (BMDL) has been proposed as a replacement for the no-observed-adverse-effect-level (NOAEL) in setting acceptable human exposure levels. A method is developed in this paper for calculating BMDs and BMDLs from continuous data in a manner that is consistent with those calculated from quantal data. The method involves defining an abnormal response, either directly by specifying a cutoff x0 that separates continuous responses into normal and abnormal categories, or indirectly by specifying the proportion P0 of abnormal responses expected among unexposed subjects. The method does not involve actually dichotomizing individual continuous responses into quantal responses, and in certain cases can be applied to continuous data in summarized form (e.g., means and standard deviations of continuous responses among subjects in discrete dose groups). In addition to specifying the BMR and either x0 or P0, the method requires specification of the distribution of continuous responses, including specification of the dose-response θ(d) for a measure of central tendency. A method is illustrated for selecting θ(d) to make the probability of an abnormal response any desired dose-response function. This enables the same dose-response model (Weibull, log-logistic, etc.) to be used for the probability of an abnormal response, regardless of whether the underlying data are continuous or quantal. Whenever the continuous responses are normally distributed with standard deviation σ (independent of dose), the method is equivalent to defining the BMD as the dose corresponding to a prescribed change in the mean response relative to σ.

Notizen: Recent legislative and regulatory activities at the federal level have focused attention on the highway routing of hazardous materials. The question is whether routes that minimize the risk of release accidents (i.e., the expected number of persons impacted by releases of hazardous materials) should be used in lieu of the routes that have the lowest operating costs. This policy issue is addressed for interstate shipments by using a national network model to determine the practical route and minimum risk route between each of 100 different origin-destination pairs (state capitals). The resulting cost-risk tradeoffs are then used to estimate the average cost of rerouting per fatality averted, the value of which turns out to be within the range of values for a number of familiar existing regulations.

Notizen: Despite much scientific progress over many decades, the nature of global climate change remains highly uncertain, and the possibility of global climate catastrophe is one of the main concerns in public debates about global climate change. In this paper, we present a model which incorporates the risk of climate catastrophe in an analysis of greenhouse gas abatement strategy. In this model, the timing and severity of climate catastrophe are treated probabilistically. The impacts of key uncertainties on optimal policy are analyzed, and the expected values of additional information that reduces the uncertainty associated with the world economy, carbon cycle, climate change, and climate damage are estimated.

Notizen: An ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted as part of the Baseline Risk Assessment of the Remedial Investigation (RI) for the Baxter Springs/Treece subsites, Cherokee County, Kansas Superfund site, a former metals mining site. Chemicals of potential concern were heavy metals associated with mine wastes and with base metal ore deposits that were characteristic of this area. An EPA-approved method was used to developed site-specific ambient water quality criteria. Ecological impacts were assessed using three complimentary approaches. First, potential chronic impacts were assessed by applying the toxicity quotient approach (i.e., a comparison of the measured concentration of site-related metals in surface water with calculated site-specific health-based criteria). Secondly, semi-quantitative comparative ecology data were used to provide a direct measure of impacts to key species. Finally, data on other factors (e.g., acclimation and tolerance evolution) that may affect the bioavailability and toxicity of site-related metals were also considered. Information from these three sources were used to obtain a realistic picture of actual and potential population- and community-level effects associated with exposure to mining-related metals.

Notizen: The statutory language of the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986 (Proposition 65; California Health and Safety Code 25249.5 et seq.) encourages rapid adoption of “no significant risk levels” (NSRLs), intakes associated with estimated cancer risks of no more than 1 in 100,000. Derivation of an NSRL for a carcinogen listed under Proposition 65 requires the development of a cancer potency value. This paper discusses the methodology for the derivation of cancer potencies using an expedited procedure, and provides potency estimates for a number of agents listed as carcinogens under Proposition 65. To derive expedited potency values, default risk assessment methods are applied to data sets selected from an extensive tabulation of animal cancer bioassays according to criteria used by regulatory agencies. A subset of these expedited values is compared to values previously developed by regulatory agencies using conventional quantitative risk assessment and found to be in good agreement. Specific regulatory activities which could be facilitated by adopting similar expedited procedures are identified.

Notizen: We used meta-analysis to synthesize the findings from eleven case-control studies on cancer risks in humans exposed to 50-60 Hertz powerline electromagnetic fields (EMFs). Pooled estimates of risk are derived for different EMF measurement methods and types of cancer. EMF measurement methods are classified as: wiring configuration codes, distance to power distribution equipment, spot measurements of magnetic fields, and calculated indices based on distance to power distribution equipment and historic load data. Pooled odds ratios depicting the risk of cancer by each measurement type are presented for all cancers combined, leukemia for all age groups and childhood leukemia. The wire code measurement technique was associated with a significantly increased risk for all three cancer types, while spot measures consistently showed non-significant odds ratios. Distance measures and the calculated indices produced risk estimates which were significant only for leukemia.

Notizen: For regions of shallow ground water, a shallow well point sampler can provide cost-effective sampling of contaminant plumes. A miniature well point sampler allows rapid sampling of ground water down to a maximum depth of 12 feet below grade. A high ratio of striking force to cross-sectional area of the shaft enables the well point to penetrate soils grading from silt through sand to fine gravel. Three slot sizes have proved satisfactory for the slotted well point. For fine gravel through silty sand, a receiver flask serving as a silt trap with a hand pump can withdraw water samples. For silt or clay, a special shielded point is used to expose a porous screen upon withdrawal of the shaft. The points can be left imbedded in the strata and a vacuum drawn to recover a sample under saturated or unsaturated conditions.Such a sampler has been shown to be effective in tracing plumes from individual on-site septic systems and hazardous waste sites. The text describes a simple procedure for plume analysis and description of the extent of dewatered strata near the point based upon different sample volumes. The probe has been used with conductivity meters and fluorometers for profiling subsurface plumes. A cost comparison is shown between monitoring well installation and the portable well point for varying sample frequency and depth.

Notizen: In the past 30 to 40 years, floodplain areas of large rivers, such as the Missouri River, have been extensively used for large industrial and municipal landfills. Many of these sites are now causing varying degrees of ground water contamination. Rapid geophysical characterization techniques have proven useful for delineation of anomalous areas indicative of potential contaminant plumes. These methods have also resulted in a cost effective approach to the location and number of monitoring wells.An effective technique to initially characterize ground water contamination at such landfills along the Missouri River in northwestern Missouri involved a combination of electrical resistivity and electromagnetic conductivity methods. Resistivity was used to obtain soundings of the alluvium by using a modified Wenner array and to corroborate shallow electromagnetic conductivity measurements by using short Wenner array electrode spacings.Upon confirmation of similar measurements of the upper soils for the two methods, numerous electromagnetic conductivity traverses were made at each landfill site. The data generated from these surveys were graphed and contoured to delineate anomalous areas. Based on the geophysical study, a ground water monitoring well network was then designed for each landfill.As a result, a minimal number of wells were required to initially characterize the ground water quality at these two sites. In general, analysis of water samples from these wells displayed good correlation with the geophysical results.

Notizen: The U.S. Department of Energy is investigating the Palo Duro Basin of West Texas along with locations in Nevada, Washington, Utah, Mississippi and Louisiana as potential sites for storage of high-level nuclear waste. Ten wells have been drilled to depths between 3,000 and 8,300 feet. Short-term testing has included conventional oil-field-type drill stem tests and drill stem equipment with surface pressure readout. Long-term testing has consisted of a series of production and recovery tests.Fluid sampling was performed in two stages. The first was at the well head under an imposed pressure of several hundred psi. The second fluid samples were collected downhole at the production zone under pressures close to ambient pressure. The geochemical data and hydrologic data can be used as independent checks on each other in many cases. Test results from the well along with examination of recovered core provided maximum data from each well.

Notizen: Borehole television has been successfully utilized to gather in situ information on boreholes and wells in several ground water monitoring programs. Borehole television surveys are proposed as a viable alternative to other downhole instruments in the subsurface investigation stages of a ground water monitoring program.The borehole television camera used by the authors was originally developed for use in the examination of nuclear reactor cores; the camera has since been modified for use in borehole investigations. The lens attachments are capable of looking sideward or downward and include built-in lighting assemblies. Use of the camera, lenses and various support equipment are discussed.The in situ characterization of fractures that can provide pathways for contaminant migration poses a significant challenge. Borehole television inspection can provide information on the frequency, size and orientation of these fractures. Vertical correlations of rock cores in areas where voids are present (i.e. deep mining or karst topography) can also be simplified by this technique. In addition, borehole television can also be used to check monitoring well integrity. Casing inspections are especially useful where construction details are not known. Well screens may be inspected in place to determine if rusting has enlarged the screen openings or if screens have been damaged during emplacement or well development operations (i.e. surge block, air jetting, etc.). This information may prove to be very valuable in the decision to decommission a well. Examples of these successful applications in ground water monitoring programs at several Superfund hazardous waste sites are presented.

Notizen: A ground water monitoring program should include an investigation of all possible areas of concern. To be completely effective, the program should include soil sampling, soil analysis and water-quality examination of both the saturated and unsaturated zones. A well-tooled drill rig can take all the proper soil samples, perform all necessary tests and install a functional monitoring well. With the introduction of the fluoropolymer (Teflon(r)) sleeve lysimeter, a single monitoring well can be constructed to monitor both the saturated and unsaturated zones in one installation. The monitoring well screen and casing may also be completely constructed of fluoropolymer.The sleeve lysimeter is designed with a threaded hollow inner diameter, allowing it to be attached between the joints of a casing string. This hollow I.D. acts as an extension of the casing; the lysimeter surrounds the casing. This creates an isolated vessel for sampling the vadose zone. Access to the screened monitoring well below is unaffected. Tests have shown that when properly installed, these porous fluoropolymer filter units can collect samples with no interaction between the filter and collected fluids.

Notizen: More than 40 years of ground water quality monitoring data from the aquifer of the Upper Mad River Valley have been accumulated by various agencies in Ohio. The data consist of concentrations for more than 30 chemical substances found in the ground water. Evaluation of this data using statistical analysis, tables and graphs indicates that there have been moderate increases in total dissolved solids, sulfate, fluoride, calcium, magnesium and potassium. More significant increases were discovered for chloride and sodium. Iron and zinc show a general decline in concentration. The metals arsenic, barium and lead also show increases in recent years. However, large variations in the concentrations and limited data for these metals limit the reliability of the apparent trends shown in the tabulated data.The increases in chloride and sodium are attributed to the use of road de-icing salt. Increases in sulfate and potassium may be due to use of fertilizers in a region which is largely agricultural. The most recent data may indicate that the ground water quality is improving in terms of these two parameters. Although most of the data indicate increases in concentrations with time, inconsistencies in sampling procedures and difficulties in assessing many factors which affect ground water quality preclude the broad conclusion that urbanization and industrialization have caused regional ground water quality degradation.The inability to interpret much of the data underlies the need for an integrated environmental monitoring program. Such a program should provide a data base for assessing factors such as air and river quality and historical land use practices so that their impact on ground water quality in the Mad River Valley can be better understood.

Notizen: The reliability of ground water monitoring information can be assured by careful selection of sample handling and analytical procedures. Sampling mechanism selection has been studied far less than analytical methodologies (Scalf et al. 1981, Nacht 1983). This study has as its primary goal the identification of reliable sampling mechanisms for purgeable organic compounds and gas-sensitive chemical parameters in ground water. Carefully controlled sampling experiments were run to investigate the error contributed to chemical results due to sampling mechanism alone. Fourteen commercial sampling devices in five mechanistic categories were evaluated for their performance in sample collection for solution parameters, dissolved gases and purgeable organic compounds. Systematic errors related to sampling mechanism can reduce the accuracy of monitoring data by factors of two to three times that involved in analytical procedures.

Notizen: Traditional monitoring methods using chemical analysis of ground water samples to detect pollutant migration are being superseded or used in conjunction with innovative approaches. A need to detect pollutants before they reach the water table has drawn interest to vadose (unsaturated) zone monitoring and brought together hydrogeologists, soil scientists and agricultural engineers who have been working on this subject for years.Recent studies have identified over 50 different types of vadose zone monitoring devices and methods that have optimum utility in varying hydrogeologic settings. In general, measurements made in the vadose zone are trying to define storage, transmission of liquid waste in terms of flux and velocity, and pollutant mobility.Criteria for the selection of alternative vadose zone monitoring methods are important for the development of site-specific systems. These criteria include: type of site; applicability to new, active, and abandoned sites; power requirements; depth limitations; multiple use capability; type of data collection system; reliability and life expectancy; degree of operational complexity; direct versus indirect methods; applicability to alternate media; effect on flow regime; and effect of hazardous waste on sampling or measurements. Application of the selection criteria is discussed in Everett et al. (1982a).

Notizen: In recent years we have seen major advances in the variety and quality of ground water sampling instrumentation, in almost every case involving increases in sensitivity of one or more orders of magnitude. Software number-crunching ability brings us the capability of running sophisticated mathematical and statistical programs, while modern analytical chemistry routinely makes determinations of metals, organics and radioactive elements accurate in the parts per billion range.The construction of sample points rarely supports these levels of precision. The well is the basic sampling machine for the ground water industry and its ability to produce a truly representative sample underpins all data and conclusions. Regardless of the type of instrumentation employed, a sample point that cannot be shown to be truly representative and that fails to provide a series of reliable samples over the long term–let us say 25 years minimum–is a negative investment.In the authors’professional sampling work, it has been observed that, wherever it is possible to improve the quality of the ground water sample point, a reduction in the measured level of pollutant elements in the sample is found and the confidence level improves. Volatile organic values are the sole exception to this observed reduction in concentration, the reason being that sample point and method improvements capture the fully representative water sample, thus reducing volatile losses.It is not possible to address all hydrogeologic environments and sampling methods in this review. Instead, features were selected that had been found to be important in commercial, high-precision, water quality sampling in Western U.S. environments. In this area, water movement is slow and little or no exchange of water occurs between wells and the surrounding aquifer without artificial stimulation. Water quality stabilization requires multiple casing volume evacuations in wells ranging to 1,000 feet deep. High-volume pumping or mechanized bailing is an economic requirement. Dedicated installations cannot supply the volume of water required for comprehensive analytical programs.It is the nature of these sources, as well as practical recommendations for corrective action, that will be addressed in this article.Any attempted improvement in utilization of data by mathematical processing or statistical treatment will be inadequate because:〈list xml:id="l1" style="custom"〉• Samplings are infrequent and often accumulate at rates of only two or four sample suites per year. Seasonal variations may obscure evidence of passage of a low-intensity pollution front and some years may elapse before the true situation becomes apparent from statistical analyses. By such time, the problem pollutant may have escaped from the treatment area.• Powerful biases occur due to the failure of the sample point to eliminate false contributions to the sample from sources other than the natural environment or a pollution source, most frequently originating in casing materials and annular seal leakage.

Notizen: Structural integrity of well construction, sampling, and remediation materials may be compromised at many hazardous sites by nonaqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) and their dissolved constituents. A literature review of compatibility theory and qualitative field experiences are provided regarding the degradation and corrosion of materials in contact with NAPLs and organic compounds. A chemical compatibility table, compiled from several sources of compatibility testing results, is presented for 73 chemicals and 28 commonly used materials. Field experiences illustrate the compatibility problems of some of the common wastes and materials found at hazardous waste sites.