ALBERT

Description: We compare differences and similarities in the annual stratospheric HNO3 cycle derived from ground‐based measurements at the South Pole during 1993 and 1995, after correcting an error in earlier published profile retrievals for 1993 which led to under estimation of mixing ratios. The data series presented here provide profiling over the range ∼16–48 km, and cover the fall‐winter‐spring cycle in the behavior of HNO3 in the extreme Antarctic with a large degree of temporal overlap. With the exception of one gap of 20 days, the combined data sets cover a full annual cycle. The record shows an increase in HNO3 above 30 km occurring about 20 days before sunset, which appears to be the result of higher altitude heterogeneous conversion of NOx as photolysis diminishes. Both years show a strong increase in HNO3 beginning about polar sunset, in a layer peaking at about 25 km, as additional NOx is heterogeneously converted to nitric acid. When temperatures drop to the polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation range near the end of May, gas phase HNO3 is rapidly reduced in the lower stratosphere, although at least 2–3 weeks of temperatures ≤192 K appear to be required to complete most of the gas‐phase removal at the upper end of the depletion range (22–25 km). Despite a significant difference in residual sulfate loading from the explosion of Mount Pinatubo, there appears to be little gross difference in the timing and effects of PSC formation in removing gas phase HNO3 in these 2 years, though removal may be more rapid in 1995. Incorporation of gas phase HNO3 into PSCs appears to be nearly complete up to ∼25 km by midwinter. We also see a repeat of the formation of gas phase HNO3 in the middle stratosphere in early midwinter of 1995 with about the same timing as in 1993, suggesting that this phenomenon is driven by a repetition of dynamical transport and appropriate temperatures and pressures in the polar night, and not (as has been suggested) by ion‐based heterogeneous chemistry that requires triggering by large relativistic electron fluxes. High‐altitude HNO3 production peaks during a period of ∼20 days, but appears to persist for up to ∼40 days in the 40–45 km range, ceasing well before sunrise. This HNO3 descends rapidly throughout the production period, at a rate in good agreement with theoretically determined midwinter subsidence rates. As noted in earlier studies, later warming of this region above PSC evaporation temperatures does not cause reappearance of large amounts of HNO3, indicating that most PSCs gravitationally sink out of the stratosphere before early spring. We present evidence that smaller PSCs do evaporate to ∼1 to 3.5 ppbv of HNO3 in the lower stratosphere, however, working downward from ∼25 km as temperatures rise during the late winter. There is a delay of ∼15 days after sunrise before photolysis causes significant depletion in the altitude range below ∼30 km, where subsidence has carried virtually all higher‐altitude HNO3 by polar sunrise. Some continued subsidence and photolysis combine to keep mixing ratios less than ∼5 ppbv below 30 km until the final breakdown of the vortex in November brings larger amounts of HNO3 with air from lower latitudes.

Description: Published

Description: 17739-17750

Description: 5A. Ricerche polari e paleoclima

Description: JCR Journal

Description: We propose a version of the pure temporal epidemic type aftershock sequences (ETAS) model: the ETAS model with correlated magnitudes. As for the standard case, we assume the Gutenberg-Richter law to be the probability density for the magnitudes of the background events. Instead, the magnitude of the triggered shocks is assumed to be probabilistically dependent on that of the relative mother events. This probabilistic dependence is motivated by some recent works in the literature and by the results of a statistical analysis made on some seismic catalogs [Spassiani and Sebastiani, J. Geophys. Res. 121, 903 (2016)10.1002/2015JB012398]. On the basis of the experimental evidences obtained in the latter paper for the real catalogs, we theoretically derive the probability density function for the magnitudes of the triggered shocks proposed in Spassiani and Sebastiani and there used for the analysis of two simulated catalogs. To this aim, we impose a fundamental condition: averaging over all the magnitudes of the mother events, we must obtain again the Gutenberg-Richter law. This ensures the validity of this law at any event's generation when ignoring past seismicity. The ETAS model with correlated magnitudes is then theoretically analyzed here. In particular, we use the tool of the probability generating function and the Palm theory, in order to derive an approximation of the probability of zero events in a small time interval and to interpret the results in terms of the interevent time between consecutive shocks, the latter being a very useful random variable in the assessment of seismic hazard.

Description: Published

Description: 042134

Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Seismic hazard modeling is a multidisciplinary science that aims to forecast earthquake occurrence and its resultant ground shaking. Such models consist of a probabilistic framework that quantifies uncertainty across a complex system; typically, this includes at least two model components developed from Earth science: seismic source and ground motion models. Although there is no scientific prescription for the forecast length, the most common probabilistic seismic hazard analyses consider forecasting windows of 30 to 50 years, which are typically an engineering demand for building code purposes. These types of analyses are the topic of this review paper. Although the core methods and assumptions of seismic hazard modeling have largely remained unchanged for more than 50 years, we review the most recent initiatives, which face the difficult task of meeting both the increasingly sophisticated demands of society and keeping pace with advances in scientific understanding. A need for more accurate and spatially precise hazard forecasting must be balanced with increased quantification of uncertainty and new challenges such as moving from time‐independent hazard to forecasts that are time dependent and specific to the time period of interest. Meeting these challenges requires the development of science‐driven models, which integrate all information available, the adoption of proper mathematical frameworks to quantify the different types of uncertainties in the hazard model, and the development of a proper testing phase of the model to quantify its consistency and skill. We review the state of the art of the National Seismic Hazard Modeling and how the most innovative approaches try to address future challenges.

Description: Published

Description: e2019RG000653

Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto

Description: JCR Journal

Description: An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright (2016) American Geophysical Union.

Description: The accuracy of earthquake locations and their correspondence with subsurface geology depends strongly on the accuracy of the available seismic velocity model. Most modern methods to construct a velocity model for earthquake location are based on the inversion of passive source seismological data. Another approach is the integration of high-resolution geological and geophysical data to construct deterministic velocity models in which earthquake locations can be directly correlated to the geological structures. Such models have to be kinematically consistent with independent seismological data in order to provide precise hypocenter solutions. We present the Altotiberina (AT) seismic model, a three-dimensional velocity model for the Upper Tiber Valley region (Northern Apennines, Italy), constructed by combining 300 km of seismic reflection profiles, 6 deep boreholes (down to 5 km depth), detailed data from geological surveys and direct measurements of P- and S-wave velocities performed in situ and in laboratory. We assess the robustness of the AT seismic model by locating 11,713 earthquakes with a non-linear, global-search inversion method and comparing the probabilistic hypocenter solutions to those calculated in three previously published velocity models, constructed by inverting passive seismological data only. Our results demonstrate that the AT seismic model is able to provide higher-quality hypocenter locations than the previous velocity models. Earthquake locations are consistent with the subsurface geological structures and show a high degree of spatial correlation with specific lithostratigraphic units, suggesting a lithological control on the seismic activity evolution.

Description: Published

Description: 8113-8135

Description: 4T. Sismicità dell'Italia

Description: JCR Journal

Description: [1] We present the first intercomparison between the two most comprehensive records of gas‐phase HNO3 profiles in the Antarctic stratosphere, covering the greater part of 1993 and 1995. We compare measurements by the Stony Brook Ground‐Based Millimeter‐wave Spectrometer (GBMS) at the South Pole with Version 5 HNO3 data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) aboard the Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite. Trajectory tracing was used to select MLS measurements in the 70°–80°S latitude band that sampled air observed by the GBMS during passage over the Pole. When temperatures were near the HNO3 condensation range, additional screening was performed to select MLS measurements that sampled air parcels within 1.5 K of the temperature they experienced over the Pole. Quantitative comparisons are given at 7 different potential temperature levels spanning the range ∼19–30 km. Agreement between the data sets is quite good between 465 and 655 K (∼20–25 km) during a large fraction of the year. Agreement is best during winter and spring, when seasonally averaged differences are generally within 1 ppbv below ∼25 km. At higher altitudes, and during summer and fall, the agreement becomes worse, and GBMS measurements can exceed MLS values by more than 3 ppbv. We provide evidence that differences occurring in the lower stratosphere during fall are due to lack of colocation between the two data sets during a period of strong poleward gradients in HNO3. Remaining discrepancies between GBMS and MLS V5 HNO3 measurements are thought to be due to instrumental or retrieval biases.

Description: Published

Description: id 4809

Description: 5A. Ricerche polari e paleoclima

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Mineral dust plays an important role in the atmospheric radiation budget as well as in the ocean carbon cycle through fertilization and by ballasting of settling organic matter. However, observational records of open‐ocean dust deposition are sparse. Here, we present the spatial and temporal evolution of Saharan dust deposition over 2 years from marine sediment traps across the North Atlantic, directly below the core of the Saharan dust plume, with highest dust fluxes observed in summer. We combined the observed deposition fluxes with model simulations and satellite observations and argue that dust deposition in the Atlantic is predominantly controlled by summer rains. The dominant depositional pathway changes from wet deposition in summer to dry deposition in winter. Wet deposition has previously been suggested to increase the release of dust‐derived nutrients and their bioavailability, which may be a key contributor to surface‐ocean productivity in remote and oligotrophic parts of the oceans.

Description: The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) is an important dynamic component contributing to the total mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet, as it reaches up to the central divide and drains 12% of the ice sheet. The ice stream geometry and surface velocities in the onset region of the NEGIS are not yet sufficiently well reproduced by ice sheet models. We present an assessment of the basal conditions of the onset region in a systematic analysis of airborne ultra-wideband radar data. Our data yield a new detailed model of ice-thickness distribution and basal topography in the upstream part of the ice stream. We observe a change from a smooth to a rougher bed where the ice stream widens from 10 to 60 km, and a distinct roughness anisotropy, indicating a preferred orientation of subglacial structures. The observation of off-nadir reflections that are symmetrical to the bed reflection in the radargrams suggests that these structures are elongated subglacial landforms, which in turn indicate potential streamlining of the bed. Together with basal water routing pathways, our observations hint to two different zones in this part of the NEGIS: an accelerating and smooth upstream region, which is collecting water, with reduced basal traction, and in the further downstream part, where the ice stream is slowing down and is widening, with a distribution of basal water towards the shear margins. Our findings support the hypothesis that the NEGIS is strongly interconnected to the subglacial water system in its onset region, but also to the subglacial substrate and morphology.

Description: Changes in ocean gateway configuration can induce basin‐scale rearrangements in ocean current characteristics. However, there is large uncertainty in the relative timing of the Oligocene/Miocene subsidence histories of the Greenland‐Scotland Ridge (GSR) and the Fram Strait (FS). By using a climate model, we investigate the temperature and salinity changes in response to the subsidence of these two key ocean gateways during early to middle Miocene. For a singular subsidence of the GSR, we detect warming and a salinity increase in the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean. As convection sites shift to the north of Iceland, North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) is formed at cooler temperatures. The associated deep ocean cooling and upwelling of deep waters to the Southern Ocean surface can cause a cooling in the southern high latitudes. These characteristic responses to the GSR deepening are independent of the FS being shallow or deep. An isolated subsidence of the FS gateway for a deep GSR shows less pronounced warming and salinity increase in the Nordic Seas. Arctic temperatures remain unaltered, but a stronger salinity increase is detected, which further increases the density of NADW. The increase in salinity enhances the contribution of NADW to the abyssal ocean at the expense of the colder southern source water component. These relative changes largely counteract each other and cause a negligible warming in the upwelling regions of the Southern Ocean.