ALBERT

Notes: The central concern of this paper is with the treatment of human resources in dynamic applications of capital and growth accounting. Despite many advances, national accounting conventions still give biased profiles of the economy, but the time is ripe for experimentation with measures that can correct those biases and provide a more adequate base for assessment of long-term economic performance and prospects.In the first section, the logic and feasibility of forward and backward measures of formation of human capital in the simplest case (of full-time schooling) is examined in parallel with physical capital. In a dynamic economy, which is rarely if ever in equilibrium, these approaches complement each other; they are poor substitutes. In section two a number of conceptual and measurement issues are considered with particular reference to human-capital investment periods and the treatment of appreciation, depreciation and obsolescence of human versus physical capital. Here special attention is given to the extended periods of investments in human resources, which overlap with realization of returns, and to the processes and agencies through which postschool investments are made. The last section presents a brief statement concerning asymmetries in disequilibrium biases with respect to the formation of human relative to physical capital. Drawing upon section 1 with regard to forward and backward measures and section 2 with regard to the critical importance of postschool learning, new possibilities in contributions of national accounting to a dynamic analysis of economic development are suggested.

Notes: After giving a brief discussion of the biases that exist in the conventional estimation procedures followed in the construction of national accounts, this paper argues for restructuring of national accounts so as to treat human capital formation as investment rather than consumption and suggests that a beginning should be made in respect of schooling. The argument is based on the notion that “investment” or “capital” is that which yields future income streams and also on the rather obvious point that treating as consumption large outlays that really constitute investment distorts analyses of resource allocation, growth and income distribution, and obscures intersectoral relations. It is pointed out that the proposed restructuring of national accounts is more relevant and important for developing countries, many of which are embarked on investment planning. Another major point emphasized is that the input of students’time should be properly measured and included in the estimates of capital formation by schooling.To illustrate what these proposals imply, revision has been attempted of the estimates of (a) educational outlay (or activity in the education sector), (b) gross capital formation, and (c) gross national product, pertaining to the national accounts of a major developing country, namely India, for the years 1960–61 through 1965–66. The modified estimates, though first approximations and covering only a part of the human capital formation and having a systematically downward bias, nevertheless indicate an upward revision of the estimate of activity in the education sector by about 200 to 300 percent, of gross capital formation by about 50 percent and of the gross national product by 4 to 7 percent. These magnitudes show the substantial order of distortion involved in the conventional procedures.

Notes: This paper considers the properties of the Divisia, or chain-link, index, as they relate to the argument that this is the most appropriate index for use in studying the sources of economic growth. The great advantage of the Divisia index is alleged to be its “accuracy”, that is, its capacity to combine time series of prices and quantities to give a true reflection of the height of a utility or production function over time. The paper shows that there are circumstances where the confidence in the accuracy of the Divisia index is justified, but that the conditions required are very restrictive and typically do not obtain in the contexts where the Divisia index is used. Misplaced confidence in the Divisia index has led to errors of interpretation that might otherwise have been avoided, and has given rise to a distorted view of the process of economic growth.

Notes: This essay focuses on the problems of estimating the share of America's personal wealth in the hands of affluent individuals by a technique known as the estate multiplier method. Rather than exploring these problems in an empirical vacuum, we first present some results from the most recent estimates of the distribution of U.S. personal wealth.1 The estimates—for the year 1969—are then used as a basis for gauging the sensitivity of estate multiplier estimates to variations in approach.Section I presents new empirical findings dealing with the asset holdings of top wealth-holders and the super rich, and with the shares of specific assets owned by them. Also presented is information about the sex and marital status of the super rich.Section II discusses various technical aspects of the estate multiplier as applied to federal estate tax returns. The main concern is with the weighting process, but attention is paid to the fact that estate tax returns filed in a given year are not for decedents who died in that year or any single year, and to the problems of adjusting the face value of life insurance to cash surrender value.

Notes: The only periodic data available in Canada on the asset holdings and net worth of the household sector are data collected through a series of household surveys originally initiated in 1954. Some limited data on the holdings of financial claims by the personal and unincorporated business sector are available from flow of funds work. Data are unavailable for estimation from estate tax returns.The scope of the surveys has been expanded substantially so that the most recent survey obtained a very comprehensive list of asset holdings. The experience with Canadian surveys has been similar to that of other countries; surveys appear to underestimate asset holdings although the estimates are more reliable for widely held assets than for assets with a very skewed distribution. Nevertheless, the surveys appear to trace the accumulated distribution of personal savings over time to a considerable degree and provide useful cross-sectional trend data.Canadian data show that wealth is more unequally distributed among family units than is income although wealth appears to be more equally distributed between income groups than is income. Wealth is also very unequally distributed within the same income group. Over time, there appears to have been some movement towards a more equal distribution of asset holdings between income groups.

Notes: 〈blockFixed type="quotation"〉Man may work from sun to sun, But woman's work is never done. Anon.It has become almost a cliché that measured growth in the U.S. is being overstated. The classic on the subject is by Mishan [5], who argues persuasively that the (uncounted) externalities from production in industrialized economies are overtaking the production which these economies are counting. But externalities are not the only problems in measuring economic activity and economic growth. Two other problems of equal importance, but more amenable to measurement, are the distinction between final and intermediate production, and the quantification of nonmarket productive behavior. In this paper, we concentrate on one aspect of the measurement of nonmarket behavior—the value of production at home by housewives./〉Specifically, we will present estimates of the value of home based nonmarket production by housewives. These estimates will then be used to supplement various national product aggregates in order to calculate more accurate growth rates for the U.S. economy. We find that the value of nonmarket production by married women during the 1960's has averaged approximately thirty percent of the GNP and close to 40 percent of the national income. The inclusion of the nonmarket work of housewives in GNP would reduce the measured rate of growth of real GNP per potential worker by about ten percent, the exact amount depending on how the value of nonmarket work is estimated. Our estimates indicate a reduction in the absolute rate of growth of almost 0.25 percent.

Notes: This study develops a microanalytic simulation model to examine the effects of macroeconomic fluctuations on the distribution on the distribution of income. A representational sample of the population of the United States is linked with equations determining the variability of various types of factor income. Each family's income experience is simulated under alternative aggregate conditions, and the income distributions arising under these conditions are compared. The main results are similar for alternative specifications of the model. The incidence of a downturn in economic activity, whether accompanied by changes in the rate of inflation or not, and measured in terms of the loss of factor income, leaves the upper middle class relatively better off than before and leaves most others relatively worse off. The very rich bear the heaviest burden.

Notes: In the latest official national income publication the Australian Commonwealth Statistician has altered the treatment of stock appreciation in the measurement of national income at current prices. Previously, stock appreciation had been included in both national expenditure and national product. Now the amount of stock appreciation (the difference between the change in the value of stocks and the value of the change in stocks) has been deducted from investment in stocks, and consequently national expenditure, and from trading incomes, and consequently national income. The former procedure (including stock appreciation in national expenditure and national product) had been advocated by the present author, when editor of the first official national income publications issued by the Commonwealth Statistician. In this note an attempt is made to set out the reasons for this view. A new approach is also suggested for handling the item of stock appreciation in national income accounts, which does not rest on the assumption that stock appreciation is a capital gain which should be excluded from trading incomes and national product.

Notes: This paper entails an investigation of the effects of data revisions on forecasting accuracy, through use of preliminary and revised national accounting data compiled by the United Nations. A small model was estimated for each of fourteen countries and ex post“forecasts” generated for each country and each year of the period 1957–1964, using first preliminary and then revised data.A prior analysis of the data revisions indicated a strong and widespread tendency for the preliminary estimates to understate both levels and year-to-year changes. This is consistent with the findings of other studies.Two sets of forecasts obtained from the reduced form of the model were considered in relation to “actual” levels and changes, obtained from the revised data, and also in relation to each other. A strong downward bias was observed in the forecasts of levels based on preliminary data, and a weaker one in the forecasts of changes. The forecast discrepancies for different variables were found to be significantly correlated.The results suggest that a tendency toward understatement in preliminary data may account in part for the general tendency toward understatement in forecasts noted in other studies.

Notes: Part I: Availability and meaning of East European distributional statistics are discussed. Part II: Measures of inequality to be used in this study are examined: the Gini coefficient of concentration, though superior to some other single indicators, is found to be an unreliable comparative measure of inequality, and is therefore supplemented by a set of ratios of selected percentiles to the median. Part III: Inequality of full-time gross monthly earnings is measured for (almost) the whole civilian working population and for some subpopulations (selected industries, men, women) in Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia through 1970, in Hungary through 1968: the observed inequality appears to be less than in small capitalist countries, in spite of the reversal of the socialist egalitarian trend in the 'sixties. The main factor of equalization of socialist earnings are small interoccupational and interregional differentials and a very flat age profile. Part IV: The socio-economic structure of households, the size of samples underlying the distributional statistics, and the composition of household “revenues” (wage and salary earnings, agricultural incomes, social security payments, relatively unimportant property incomes, as well as non-income cash flows) are examined. Inequality coefficients are estimated for per capita revenues of all households as well as subpopulations of households in Czechoslovakia and Hungary, and some information is given on the distribution of household incomes in Yugoslavia. Part V: Limits of desirable equalization of earnings are discussed. With very narrowly dispersed short-term earnings, lifetime earnings tend to be rather unequally distributed because of the variation of earning years among occupations. With largely equalized primary incomes, per capita household incomes tend to be more unequally distributed, in spite of massive transfers, because of the varying ratio of earners to dependents within households. The need of income differentials as incentives to work, the probable trade-off between income equality and economic growth, and socialist distributive principles are outlined.

Notes: This paper proposes that salary structures and the development of salaries over time be considered within the framework of the distribution of income over time. In particular, it examines certain salary scales in the U.S. and the progressions of typical individuals’ salaries during the period 1948–1969, in comparison with the percentile distributions of household income in the same period, as reflected by the Current Population Survey of the Bureau of the Census.

Notes: This paper assesses the role of inventive and innovational activity in the growth process of Canada, a country which relies overwhelmingly, some 90 per cent, on the importation of technological advances and operational know-how from abroad. Canada has prospered under this arrangement but at a price. With technology came foreign capital, foreign management and substantial foreign control. To lessen Canada's dependence on foreign know-how, this country has embarked on an expanded R & D programme. But the pay-off from these efforts has been less than expected. To throw a light on the subject, the results of two new surveys are presented: one a sample survey of patents granted, the other an interview survey of large corporations. Questions examined include sources of know-how and technological advances, utilization of inventions and abandonment of innovations, R & D and innovations, domestic and foreign innovations, and the profitability of innovations. Aggregative assessment is supplemented by disaggregative analysis using cross-section and industry data.

Notes: The paper presents forecasting models for (1) the share of competitive imports in the total demand for a commodity group and (2) the level of demand for competitive imports of a commodity group. The two forecasting models are used, respectively, with (1) input-output models which incorporate market share parameters as one vector of coefficients and (2) input-output models which assume imports have been determined autonomously. It is shown that these two types of input-output models can be made workable by prefixing one or other of the import forecasting models to the input-output model. Tests are made of the forecasting ability of the combined models.

Notes: In this paper we discuss a few of the problems that have been encountered in defining output and in comparing prices for the International Comparison Project (ICP). We report also on the way in which these problems are being met.The ICP has for its purpose the establishment of a systematic set of procedures for making international comparisons of gross domestic product (GDP) and of the purchasing power of currencies. Substantive work on comparisons involving Colombia, the European Economic Community (EEC), Hungary, India, Japan, Kenya, the United Kingdom and the United States is also being carried on with the aid of the statistical services of the countries and of the EEC. It is hoped to expand the comparisons beyond these countries as rapidly as possible.

Notes: This paper discusses a number of problems arising in comparisons of levels of national accounting aggregates between countries with different economic systems, notably between countries with market economies and countries with centrally planned economies. It considers problems arising from differences in the national accounting concepts used and problems arising from institutional differences, both of which are viewed as relating to the concepts on which the comparison should be based and the adjustment of national data to these concepts. The final section considers index number problems.

Notes: This article is an extension of an earlier article dealing with gains and losses from changes in the terms of trade. The object of the present article is to show how gains and losses in foreign trade are distributed among the branches of domestic industry. To this end, price changes for gross domestic product at factor cost in each of 25 branches of industry over the period 1949–1965, computed where possible by the double deflation method, are compared with the change over the same period in final demand—i.e., consumption plus gross investment.

Notes: There is some advantage in comparing price levels using consistent methods because this gives unique results. This paper examines some available methods of consistent comparison, pointing out difficulties associated with heterogeneous data, and suggesting adaptations yielding better comparisons. Next, the problem of non-availability of price and quantity decomposition is considered. Another problem relating to non-identical lists of commodities and quality differences is tackled by using linear programming instead of regression methodology, both methods using some transformed variables. The procedure suggested is likely eventually to be useful for comparison of dissimilar countries. Computations on some Indian population groups illustrate the findings.

Notes: The article reviews the methods used in practice and/or proposed by various authors for compiling indices in multilateral international comparisons. The various procedures are examined in the light of the following requirements: characteristicity (i.e. the weights should be characteristic to the countries which are compared), unbiasedness, circularity, internal consistency and factor relations.There is no perfect solution since characteristicity and circularity are always and unbiasedness and internal consistency often in conflict with each other. The indices which are best for bilateral purposes are not transitive and the basic problem of multilateral comparisons is to obtain circularity, without losing too much of the characteristicity of the bilateral comparisons. Different compromises between the two requirements are possible and this is first of all what distinguishes the various methods used in practice.Two main types of solution are applied in the various international comparisons. The first is based on the inter-spatial Fisher's ideal formula (e.g. the Eltetö–Köves–Szulc method, the van Yzeren method, the “central country” solution); the second type uses some kind of average prices (e.g. the Geary–Khamis method).In the author's view there is no best method in absolute terms. Every method has some weaknesses and which of these weaknesses is the easiest to accept depends to a large extent on the actual aims of the comparison and on various other circumstances.

Notes: This paper develops a method for estimating long-run trends in income growth from the data available on a country's currency stock. The method is applied to nineteenth-centry Brazil. The results indicate that contrary to earlier beliefs, the country as a whole probably experienced only moderate growth in per-capita income during the nineteenth century. The approach may also be useful for other countries where data shortages preclude estimates of national income by conventional methods.

Notes: This paper discusses the relevance of the conventional national accounts systems to the traditional African economy and concludes that they contribute little because they omit certain economic activities and fail to recognise the reciprocity between social and economic activities. Social accounting is thus more relevant. Lack of statistical data may make it necessary to conduct special surveys and in some cases a tribe or village or economic region may be a more useful accounting unit than a nation. A modified system of accounts is suggested, based on the frame work of the four consolidated accounts of the SNA. It provides linkages to many more nonmonetised activities. Other linkages would be provided through supporting tables emphasising social activities and transfers. A system of transactor accounts in matrix form is also suggested. In the case of communities smaller than the nation several external transactor sectors could be included. It is recognised that the problem of evaluation of social activities and a number of economic activities remains to be solved and it is concluded that “time spent” may be the only common unit or value to equate such activities.The final section deals with investment in human resources and proposes a balance sheet approach to indicative planning. This exercise would be related to demographic projections in several variants. Other factors to be analysed dynamically would be education and health status, public finance and, ultimately, distribution of income and wealth since it is noted that the process of monetisation is having an impact which may have important welfare implications.

Notes: In this paper the author adds some further empirical tests of his theory of income distribution. This theory (cf. this Review, Series 16, Number 3, September 1970, p. 221 ff) sees income distribution as the distribution of prices of production factors, especially labour, of different quality and prices as the effect of demand and supply factors. The quality of labour is represented only by the number of years of schooling. Its supply is described by the actual numbers of people having each of the possible years of schooling; this frequency distribution can be characterized by its average and by some measure of its dispersion or by one of its deciles (in particular the highest) expressed in terms of its median. The demand for the various qualities of labour can be supposed to be reflected by (i) total demand for commodities, but (ii) more accurately by the percentage of third-level educated people used in and weighted by the size of the four main sectors of production: agriculture, manufacturing, trade and transport, and other services. Extensive material collected and reworked by Professors B. R. Chiswick for the U.S.A. and Canada and T. P. Schultz and L. S. Burns with H. E. Frech III for the Netherlands is used in cross-section tests to explain variations in income distribution in the states of the U.S.A. and the provinces of Canada and the Netherlands. The results can be found in the tables. While further increase and smaller dispersion in years of schooling, according to some of the findings presented, would only moderately reduce the degree of inequality in the U.S.A. and Canada, more result seems to be possible according to other findings, including those for the Netherlands. In the latter category the second demand index mentioned above has been used. This paper is one of several devoted in various ways to the testing of the same theory.

Notes: Statistics for developing countries often are misunderstood and misinterpreted because the published data do not distinguish between the economically modern and the traditional sectors. The purpose of economic development is to move a nation from the traditional, or largely non-monetary, subsistence agriculture type of life, to the modern or money oriented and technologically developed type. Statistics of national accounts, the economically active (the working force), and other topics often fail to be useful for economic development purposes because they are presented for the totality of the country and do not show the modern-traditional sectors separately.In addition, data are often misinterpreted and used incorrectly because the development economists do not understand the nature of the data—how they were collected and what they really signify. This point is illustrated with the economically active statistics. Finally, a plea is made for more statistics and information about families.

Notes: This paper deals with some results of an extended investigation which was carried out by the German Institute of Economic Research, Berlin, and the Ifo-Institute, Munich, and financed by the Stiftung Volkswagenwerk. For 29 sectors of manufacturing Cobb-Douglas production functions have been calculated, based on quarterly figures 1958–1968 of value added, input of hours worked, input of utilized capital stock (net of scrappage), and of potential value added, potential labor input and total capital stock. The income distribution is used as production elasticities. For each of the 29 sectors 12 time series of quarterly indices of total factor input and technical change have been computed, using utilized data (variation 1-6) and capacity data (variation 7-12). Two different time series of α are used, taking quarterly interpolated data (variation 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11) and the geometric mean 1958–1968 (variation 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12). Moreover three different parameters of homogeneity are introduced, taking r= 1 (variation 1, 2, 7, 8), r= 1.1 (variation 3, 4, 9, 10) and r= 1.25 (variation 5, 6, 11, 12). Seven of the 29 sectors show a very high sensitivity of the rate of technical change due to the assumed r, six sectors a rather high sensitivity. Ten of the 29 sectors show a rather small sensitivity of technical change due to the assumed r, six sectors a very small or even negative sensitivity, i.e. an increasing r creates an increasing technical change. These results can be explained by taking account of the fact that total factor input in many branches increased very slowly or even decreased (labor input alone decreased in nearly all branches). A hierarchy of technical change has been calculated; this hierarchy is difficult to explain, because fast growing industries as well as industries with a small or a negative growth rate of output rank in both the leading and the last group of technical change. Very high rates of output result in high rates of technical change (chemicals, mineral oil refining, plastics manufactures), but some industries with a rather small growth of output (shipbuilding, fine ceramics, steel drawing, and cold rolling mills) show a high rate of technical change too.

Notes: This paper introduces two special issues of the Review devoted to income distribution theory and its empirical implementation. Most of the papers that will appear in these two issues were prepared for a special session on income distribution held during the Eleventh General Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, held at Nathanya, Israel, in August 1969. The present issue contains theoretical papers; the following one will present more empirical work. This introductory paper is intended to indicate the relationships among the papers that follow, and to suggest possible future directions for work in this area. In the latter connection, the author discusses the use of microanalytic models applied to microdata sets dealing with individuals and households.

Notes: A positive theory of income distribution based on assumptions concerning the supply of and demand for each type of productive service is presented. The demand function of the organizers of production may be derived from the maximization of profits with the income scale and the production function as restrictions. A normative theory based on the maximization of a social utility or welfare function is also considered. In the normative theory, production functions and balance equations (some representing compartmentalization of factor markets) are introduced as restrictions and again an income scale results, this time maximizing social welfare. Empirical testing is also considered. The positive theory was developed in part to take into consideration the fact that personal income distributions can reasonably well be described by log normal distributions, and that skill parameters are often normally distributed. Limited testing of the influence of wealth, intelligence, education, and sex suggest that these account for only a small part of the variance in the income distribution. This suggests the need for further research.

Notes: Some writers have emphasised the adverse environmental and social effects of economic growth, while others have claimed that countries with higher levels of social well-being also tend to enjoy higher levels of per capita output. The aim of this study is to see what statistical light can be thrown on these issues by collating and comparing seventeen different social indicators for twenty countries in two bench-mark years, 1951 and 1969.Two methods of analysing data are employed. First, all the countries are ranked for each indicator in turn for a particular year. Each country is then given a score ranging from 1 to 20 for each indicator, and the scores aggregated over the indicators to obtain an overall ranking score for every country. Secondly, the data are subjected to a principal components analysis to examine the correlation between the indicators. The first principal component is a potential candidate for use as a social index number. Changes in these social variables are then related to the rate of economic growth, and no evidence is found of a negative correlation between economic growth and social development. On the contrary, the results suggest a positive correlation between the two, although the strength of this relationship may be diminishing. It is not claimed that the results are in any sense the most preferred test of the form of the relationship between economic growth and social welfare, which must be a matter for subjective evaluation; rather they are seen as a contribution to the body of empirical evidence on this subject.

Notes: The paper analyzes annual revisions of figures for G.N.P. and 8 of its components in 40 countries. It arrives at the conclusion that first estimates are very often significantly biased downwards, especially Private Consumption, Fixed Investment, G.D.P. and G.N.P. Also successive revisions are sometimes correlated (negatively in most cases). The distribution of revisions differ as between developed and developing countries.

Notes: This paper presents the results of applying the mortality multiplier approach to estate duty statistics in order to estimate the size distribution of personal wealth in the Republic of Ireland. It commences with an examination of the limitations of the estate duty statistics, a discussion of the problems involved in collecting the data, and a short consideration of the mortality multipliers used.Estimates are presented for the size distribution of personal wealth, and the distribution of wealth between age groups. Some comparisons are given with wealth in Northern Ireland, Great Britain and the U.S.A. Estimates of the components of personal capital were not found possible.Finally, preliminary estimates are made for the distribution of wealth among married and single persons, in order to provide the basis for an analysis of wealth possessed by wealth-owning units (defined as single males, single females and married couples). By making extreme assumptions, upper and lower limits are placed on the actual pattern of the size distribution of wealth by wealth-owning units.

Notes: The basic theme of Mr. Webster's practical and uncontentious paper is that unreliability undermines credibility. In the following comment specific issues he mentions will be considered in more detail to illustrate some of the principal general points made in his paper.

Notes: The author addresses himself first to the problem that summary measures of wage income inequality, computed for Kinshasa, the main urban area in Zaire, tend to overstate the degree of total labor income inequality among sharing units of comparable size. It is argued that this is true for two main reasons: (1) earnings from female commercial activity are not recorded in the available statistics; and (2) the 1960 UN definition of household upon which the measures of inequality are based understates the size of the actual sharing unit. Data taken from the 1967 Socio-Demographic Survey of Kinshasa and the 1970 household budget study are used to test these hypotheses regarding short-run income inequality.The policy observation is made that, while modernization of the commodity distribution system may provide a disincentive for sharing and a reduction in opportunities for female employment, investment in non-service sectors may equalize the secular income distribution for a given migration cohort. Evidence of unskilled migrants moving from service to non-service sector employment in response to increased labor demand is presented. This is accomplished by supplementing sample survey data with time series on aggregate employment by sector for Kinshasa.

Notes: The reliability of the quarterly national income and product (NIP) accounts of the United States is examined from several standpoints. First, possible sources of error in the quarterly NIP accounts are explored, the most important being the lack of appropriate data, seasonal adjustment errors, sampling errors and biases, and the nature of the U.S. statistical system. Next, four ways of assessing the reliability of the accounts are considered. The most weight is given to measures of revisions in early estimates of the quarterly NIP aggregates. Results of previous studies of revisions are reviewed, and a summary of a major study of revisions for the period 1947–71 is given. The other ways of assessing reliability which are examined are the effect of errors on economic policy making, analysis of the statistical discrepancy, and expert judgment on sources and methodology.The degree of accuracy is judged to be generally sufficient for the policy decisions for which the NIP estimates are used. The early estimates of a quarter's change in GNP almost always distinguish whether the ultimate estimate will be large or small and will usually distinguish whether the ultimate estimate will be larger or smaller than the preceding quarter. While the accuracy of the estimates has generally been sufficient, the accuracy for 1965 was judged insufficient by policymakers. There is some evidence that errors have been reduced over time.

Notes: Most developing countries have compiled national accounts on a regular basis only for the last few years. It has not yet been possible for them to collect many of the statistics necessary to obtain good coverage of their economic activities by methods which would generally be accepted as reliable. Consequently the checks on reliability imposed by the framework of the national accounts are often absent, and the accounts prepared contain many estimates of doubtful quality. These doubts can usually only be removed as statistics collected by better methods become available. This is proving to be a slow process, partly because of the shortage of trained statistical staff and the competing demands of social and demographic statistics and partly because of the inherent difficulties in collecting good statistics from small businesses and traditional households. The need to define traditional households as producers as well as consumers leads to our demanding extra information from this difficult sector. In addition it is often difficult for the national accounts statistician, and even more so for the user, to find out in the time available exactly how some of the statistics with which he is presented were obtained. When this cannot be done it is impossible to assess their reliability. Thus assessing the overall reliability of national accounts in developing countries for even a limited range of uses is at present largely a matter of personal judgment. The information necessary to make more objective assessments rarely exists and hence the problems which developed countries face in using such information are not yet within the experience of most developing countries.

Notes: This paper examines the wealth position of blacks relative to whites, on the basis of data in the Survey of Economic Opportunity. The analysis indicates that at the same levels of both income and wealth blacks consistently invest more in consumer durables, especially housing, than do whites. The paper then explores possible explanations for this finding, suggesting that these investment differences are not solely due to the income and wealth position of blacks, but may be due to a smaller set of investment opportunities institutionally fostered by discriminatory forces.

Notes: This paper attempts to estimate genuine scale effects in retail trade from a cross section of retail stores in Israel. This is done by estimating a simple production function for several retail branches and employing the faithful old direct Cobb-Douglas structure with value added as output and labor and capital inputs. And indeed despite the well-known peculiarities of the retail industry, a cross section estimation produces “normal” production-function estimates with reasonable input elasticities. The estimates also identify marked increasing returns-to-scale parameters, higher in food and lower in branches less affected by consumer participation and geographical dispersion. These increasing returns may explain a good part of the increase in sales per unit of inputs observed in time series.

Notes: This article consists of a description and critical analysis of two important works on national accounting which have appeared fairly recently—see footnotes 1 and 2. There are fundamental differences between the systems of accounts proposed in these two works, the author tending to prefer the Ruggles system. While full of admiration for the thoroughness and other qualities of the new SNA, the author finds the system it proposes over-elaborate as a programme for national statistical offices. In his view decision as to which is the “best” system is still wide open, despite the acceptance of the new SNA by the UN Statistical Commission. In the article there is bare mention of a new (1972) book Economic Accounts and Their Uses by J. W. Kendrick which the author has since read. All three works help in determining the best practical system of accounts. It is hoped that this article (in its small way) will also make a contributionThe subject of national accounts at constant prices is not dealt with at all in any of the three works despite the fact that it has received considerable attention at various meetings of IARIW. Accounts at constant prices and their concomitant price indexes are more important in these days of the curse of inflation than are accounts at current prices. Of course the new SNA deals with items at constant prices but the author finds the treatment rather inadequate.It is satisfactory that the new SNA provides for input-output but the author agrees with the Ruggles view that the textual treatment in SNA is somewhat incomplete.The article gives the author's views on many other topics relevent to national accounting (which encompass all economic statistics!) including price index number making, inaccuracies in data, delays in availability of so-called “current” statistics, and treatment of financial intermediaries.

Notes: This paper suggests a modification of the Becker–Chiswick model for analyzing investment in human capital where the capital market is imperfect. The modification essentially involves the addition of a consumption function to the model. As a result it is possible to include the effects of human capital investment on a student's income expectations, on consumption, and thereby on the availability of funds for the student to finance investment in human capital.

Notes: The objective of this paper is to present income and expenditure accounts, accumulation accounts, and the asset side of the wealth accounts for the U.S. private national economy in current and constant prices. These accounts are integrated with the production and factor outlay accounts for the U.S. private domestic economy in current and constant prices given in our earlier papers. Taken together, these accounts constitute a complete accounting system in current and constant prices for the private sector of the U.S. economy.Our complete accounting system incorporates a new concept of the standard of living, defined as the ratio of the quantity index of gross private national expenditures to the quantity index of gross private national consumer receipts. Our concept of the standard of living is similar but not identical to our concept of total factor productivity. Changes in the private standard of living reflect both changes in total factor productivity and changes in the proportion of the total product consumed in the public sector.

Notes: The results reported in the Searle report have stimulated me to carry out an extensive study of unit value indices, based on a much more extensive body of data and much improved procedures as compared to the preliminary evidence contained in my “Measurement Bias in Price Indices for Capital Goods,” published in this journal in June, 1971. Once again, the new study confirms the hypothesis that transaction prices of capital goods exhibit procyclical fluctuations relative to list prices. Machinery prices appear to have been considerably more flexible downward during the period of weak investment demand between 1957 and 1963 than indicated by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), and more flexible upward during the subsequent expansion during 1963–1969. This brief paper is a summary of the study. A complete and detailed report or results is contained in my forthcoming monograph, Measurement of Durable Goods Prices, to be published by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Notes: Professor Moser regards the purpose of social indicators as being to aid the policy maker by summarizing the state and changing conditions of society, pinpointing the outstanding existing and emerging social problems and monitoring the effects of social policies and programmes. Thus social indicators will frequently, though not necessarily, be normative and they will often, though again not necessarily, be concerned with outputs rather than inputs. Although many writers regard social indicators as being combinations of series, the problems of construction are substantial. Central to the idea of a social indicator, however, is that it should represent or summarize a broader concept than itself and that it should belong to a structure or system of series. Although there are no social theories about society in general on which a structure of indicators can at present be based there are a number of middle range theories relating to specific fields or sectors, such as occupational mobility, education, migration, mental health, etc., around which quantitative relationships and models can gradually be be built to give insight into social changes and perhaps eventually into the manipulation of policy instruments for the improvement of social conditions.

Notes: In a statistical file system, data collected from different sources and at different dates are stored at an individual unit level. Thus, they may be linked and used for the preparation of statistics and for analytical purposes as the need arises. The statistical file system will provide a much improved data basis for empirical research in the social services including demography, economics, economic geography, sociology, education, labour, social medicine, criminology and social psychology.

Notes: Serious doubts have been raised as to the validity of using cross-sectional estimates of the average propensity to consume over time. These d⊙ubts are based on empirical evidence for the United States presented by Kuznets and Goldsmith. This paper extends these considerations to developing countries by looking at the evidence for India. Simple statistical techniques, including ordinary least squares regression, Chow tests, and t-tests, are used in the estimation of the consumption functions and the formulation of hypotheses. Both India and the U.S. are seen to exhibit the same characteristic secular constancy in the average propensity to consume. For India the average propensity to consume is about 0.95 and is maintained in the face of no substantial secular increases in per capita income during the period under study (1919–1960).The same inconsistencies between time series and cross-section evidence on the average propensity to consume are found to exist for India. The permanent income theory suggested only a partial explanation of these inconsistencies and the reconciliation was achieved by a Duesenberry type explanation based on evidence for a shifting cross section consumption function over time. The date was provided by a set of Family Living Surveys for Industrial Workers: 1926, 1933–1935, 1950–1952, 1958–1959.Finally it was noted that the cross-section consumption function in India had shifted both upwards and downwards over the period under study, in contrast to the strict upward shift for the U.S. In an economy such as India's, where secular growth is by no means assured, it is not always likely that consumers can avoid lowering previously achieved consumption standards in the face of cyclical economic conditions.

Notes: The paper relates the Swedish discussion and criticism of national accounting statistics, especially GNP, as a measure of welfare. It describes some results of recent Swedish attempts to find practicable measures of welfare components, i.e. the investigations of the Low Income Commission and of the Expert Group on Regional Development Research. In both cases the regional aspects of welfare are emphasized in the paper.The results are presented as a sign of important needs for new methods and new systems of concepts in measuring welfare. The Expert Group has for instance in different ways tried to map and compare the “service structure” of separate parts of Sweden. The Low Income Commission has principally studied the position in Swedish society of low income recipients and has not been working particularly on the illumination of regional differences, but since different types of region are included as a background variable, the investigations also give certain measures of the regional aspects of welfare.In the last part of the paper some of the risks that seem to be difficult to avoid in trying to use welfare measurements are pointed out.