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  • Articles  (31)
  • uncertainty
  • 1990-1994  (30)
  • 1970-1974  (1)
  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    A stochastic integral equation analog of rainfall-runoff processes for evaluating modeling uncertainty (1994)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 8 (1994), S. 259-268 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Rainfall ; runoff ; modeling ; uncertainty ; stochastics ; stochastic integral equations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract In this paper a very general rainfall-runoff model structure (described below) is shown to reduce to a unit hydrograph model structure. For the general model, a multi-linear unit hydrograph approach is used to develop subarea runoff, and is coupled to a multi-linear channel flow routing method to develop a link-node rainfall-runoff model network. The spatial and temporal rainfall distribution over the catchment is probabilistically related to a known rainfall data source located in the catchment in order to account for the stochastic nature of rainfall with respect to the rain gauge measured data. The resulting link node model structure is a series of stochastic integral equations, one equation for each subarea. A cumulative stochastic integral equation is developed as a sum of the above series, and includes the complete spatial and temporal variabilities of the rainfall over the catchment. The resulting stochastic integral equation is seen to be an extension of the well-known single area unit hydrograph method, except that the model output of a runoff hydrograph is a distribution of outcomes (or realizations) when applied to problems involving prediction of storm runoff; that is, the model output is a set of probable runoff hydrographs, each outcome being the results of calibration to a known storm event.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01588756
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The influence of travel time variability on the value of time (1994)
    Springer
    Transportation 21 (1994), S. 203-228 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9435
    Keywords: reliability ; SP experiments ; uncertainty ; users' benefits ; value of time ; variability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying
    Notes: Abstract Current benefits from travel time savings have only been related to the benefits from reducing mean travel time. Some previous attempts of including variability in the generalised cost function have mainly assumed commuters with fixed arrival time. This paper presents a comprehensive framework for valuing travel time variability that allows for any journey purpose and arrival time constraint. The proposed model is based on the expected utility approach and the mean-standard deviation approach. Stated Preference methods are considered the best technique for providing the data for calibrating the models. The values of time derived from the models are highly influenced by the value of travel time variability and it strongly depends on the probability distribution function travellers are faced with.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01098793
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
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    Effects of climatic variability on the hydrologic response of a freshwater watershed (1994)
    Springer
    Aquatic sciences 56 (1994), S. 161-178 
    Details
    ISSN: 1420-9055
    Keywords: Global climate change ; modeling ; freshwater watersheds ; uncertainty
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract A generalized watershed model was used to evaluate the effects of global climate changes on the hydrologic responses of freshwater ecosystems. The Enhanced Trickle Down (ETD) model was applied to W-3 watershed located near Danville, Vermont. Eight years of field data was used to perform model calibration and verification and the results were presented in Nikolaidis et al., (1993). Results from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) general circulation models which simulated the doubling of present day atmospheric CO2 scenarios were used to perform the hydrologic simulations for the W-3 watershed. The results indicate that the W-3 watershed will experience increases in annual evapotranspiration and decreases in annual outflow and soil moisture. Stochastic models that simulate collective statistical properties of meteorological time series were developed to generate data to drive the ETD model in a Monte-Carlo fashion for quantification of the uncertainty in the model predictions due to input time series. This coupled deterministic and stochastic model was used to generate probable scenarios of future hydrology of the W-3 watershed. The predicted evapotranspiration and soil moisture under doubling present day atmospheric CO2 scenarios exceed the present day uncertainty due to input time series by a factor greater than 2. The results indicate that the hydrologic response of the W-3 watershed will be significantly different than its present day response. The Enhanced Trickle Down model can be used to evaluate land surface feedbacks and assessing water quantity management in the event of climate change.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00877206
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Regret theory with general choice sets (1994)
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 8 (1994), S. 153-165 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: regret theory ; stochastic dominance ; choice ; uncertainty ; 026
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract The regret theory of choice under uncertainty proposed by Loomes and Sugden has performed well in explaining and predicting violations of Expected Utility theory. The original version of the model was confined to pairwise choices, which limited its usefulness as an economic theory of choice. Axioms for a more general form of regret theory have been proposed by Loomes and Sugden. In this article, it is shown that a simple nonmanipulability requirement is sufficient to characterize the functional form for regret theory with general choice sets. The stochastic dominance and comparative static properties of the model are outlined. A number of special cases are derived in which regret theory is equivalent to other well-known theories of choice under uncertainty.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01065370
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  • 5
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    Expected utility with lower probabilities (1994)
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 8 (1994), S. 197-216 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: expected utility theory ; belief functions ; lower probability ; uncertainty ; D81
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory to characterize uncertainty neutrality and different degrees of uncertainty aversion.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01065372
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  • 6
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    Probabilistic evaluations of economic merit of water resource projects (1994)
    Springer
    Water resources management 8 (1994), S. 203-223 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: uncertainty ; probabilistic analysis ; economic analysis
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The presence of uncertainties in assessing benefits and costs detracts from deterministic economic evaluation. This paper examines three probabilistic economic evaluation procedures: stochastic dominance, expected gain-confidence limit, and Hurwicz criterion. Their relative performances are evaluated through an example. Furthermore, the paper investigates the effects of (1) distributional assumptions of benefit and cost items, (2) uncertainty in project life, and (3) distribution of net present value on the project selection.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00877087
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
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    Seismic hazard analysis with randomly located sources (1994)
    Springer
    Natural hazards 9 (1994), S. 215-233 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: Seismic hazard ; random source location ; random boundary ; source zone boundary ; seismic sources ; uncertainty ; earthquakes ; statistical analysis
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Demarcation of areal and linear seismic sources involves a certain degree of uncertainty and this should be reflected in the final seismic hazard results. The uncertainty associated with the description of the geographical coordinates of a source zone boundary is modeled by introducing the concept of ‘random boundary’, where the location of the boundary is assumed to exhibit a spatial bivariate Gaussian distribution. Here the mean vector denotes the best estimate of location and the variance reflects the magnitude of location uncertainty, which may be isotropic or may show spatial directivity. The consideration of spatial randomness in the boundaries smooths the seismicity parameters and permits the gradual transitions of these to occur across border zones. Seismic sources modeled as lines can also be attributed random geometrical properties. The sensitivity of seismic hazard results to the isotropic and direction dependent location uncertainty is examined on the basis of hypothetical case studies. Area and line source location uncertainties are examined separately because they are reflected in the eventual outcome of the analyses in a complicated manner. The effect of random source zone boundaries on the expected peak ground acceleration is tested for a specific site in Turkey by conducting a comprehensive seismic hazard analysis.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00662600
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  • 8
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    Principles and methodology of fuzzy sets (1993)
    Springer
    Journal of intelligent manufacturing 4 (1993), S. 323-340 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-8145
    Keywords: Fuzzy sets ; uncertainty ; fuzzy models ; linguistic modelling ; soft computations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics
    Notes: The principles of fuzzy sets and their role in processing uncertain information will be discussed. The question of knowledge representation that is of significant importance in problems of system modelling will be formulated and considered at the level of fuzzy sets. Modelling and simulation realized with the aid of fuzzy sets are studied in a unified methodological framework. First a notion of the cognitive perspective is applied to articulate the problem in terms of specialized linguistic labels. Fuzzy models are constructed to capture logical relationships between the elements (linguistic labels) of the cognitive perspective. Several different classes of the models distinguished with regard to their structural dependencies will be analysed in depth. Finally a linguistic-numerical transformation constituting a type of model-environment interface will be studied.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00123778
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  • 9
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    The utility of gambling (1993)
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 6 (1993), S. 255-275 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: gambling ; risk ; uncertainty
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract A tiny utility of gambling is appended to an expected utility model for a risk-averse individual. It is shown that the model can explain small payoff gambles, large prize lotteries, and patterns of risk-seeking in the experimental evidence that are puzzling from the viewpoint of standard theory. At the same time, the model maintains expected utility theory's ability to explain insurance purchase, portfolio diversification, and other risk-averting behavior. The tiny utility of gambling could equally well be appended to models of risky choice other than the expected utility model.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01072614
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
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    Insurer ambiguity and market failure (1993)
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 7 (1993), S. 71-87 
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    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: insurer ambiguity ; uncertainty ; market failure ; decision making
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract A series of studies investigate the decision processes of actuaries, underwriters, and reinsurers in setting premiums for ambiguous and uncertain risks. Survey data on prices reveal that all three types of these insurance decision makers are risk averse and ambiguity averse. In addition, groups appear to be influenced in their premium-setting decisions by specific reference points such as expected loss and the concern with insolvency. This behavior is consistent with a growing analytical and empirical literature in economics and decision processes that investigates the role that uncertainty plays on managerial choices. Improved risk-assessment procedures and government involvement in providing protection against catastrophic losses may induce insurers to reduce premiums and broaden available coverage.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01065315
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  • 11
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    An intelligent control and decision approach for adaptive systems (1993)
    Springer
    Journal of intelligent and robotic systems 8 (1993), S. 63-76 
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    ISSN: 1573-0409
    Keywords: Intelligent control ; adaptive systems ; decision-making ; expert systems ; inexact reasoning ; uncertainty
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Computer Science , Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics
    Notes: Abstract An intelligent control and decision-making (ICD) approach that integrates expert systems technology with adaptive algorithms is presented. The controller parameters of adaptive systems can be determined using human expertise and knowledge, and they can also be adjusted based on active monitoring and identification. Decision-making, fine tuning and inexact reasoning provide the end-user and the control engineers with a natural and integrated methodology for use with intelligent control systems. Computer simulation results demonstrate the utility of the proposed technique that is an effective intelligent control and decision approach. The ICD system is implemented using a Lisp based expert system shell on an IBM PC.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01258640
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  • 12
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    On the learning of rule uncertainties and their integration into probabilistic knowledge bases (1993)
    Springer
    Journal of intelligent information systems 2 (1993), S. 245-264 
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    ISSN: 1573-7675
    Keywords: computational learning ; probability theory ; stratified Datalog ; uncertainty
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Computer Science
    Notes: Abstract We present a natural and realistic knowledge acquisition and processing scenario. In the first phase a domain expert identifies deduction rules that he thinks are good indicators of whether a specific target concept is likely to occur. In a second knowledge acquisition phase, a learning algorithm automatically adjusts, corrects and optimizes the deterministic rule hypothesis given by the domain expert by selecting an appropriate subset of the rule hypothesis and by attaching uncertainties to them. Then, in the running phase of the knowledge base we can arbitrarily combine the learned uncertainties of the rules with uncertain factual information. Formally, we introduce the natural class of disjunctive probabilistic concepts and prove that this class is efficiently distribution-free learnable. The distribution-free learning model of probabilistic concepts was introduced by Kearns and Schapire and generalizes Valiant's probably approximately correct learning model. We show how to simulate the learned concepts in probabilistic knowledge bases which satisfy the laws of axiomatic probability theory. Finally, we combine the rule uncertainties with uncertain facts and prove the correctness of the combination under an independence assumption.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00962070
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  • 13
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    Recent developments in modeling preferences: Uncertainty and ambiguity (1992)
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 5 (1992), S. 325-370 
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    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: ambiguity ; uncertainty ; Ellsberg paradox ; nonexpected utility
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract In subjective expected utility (SEU), the decision weights people attach to events are their beliefs about the likelihood of events. Much empirical evidence, inspired by Ellsberg (1961) and others, shows that people prefer to bet on events they know more about, even when their beliefs are held constant. (They are averse to ambiguity, or uncertainty about probability.) We review evidence, recent theoretical explanations, and applications of research on ambiguity and SEU.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00122575
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  • 14
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    Industry performance indices and the economics of information: New perspectives and caveats (1992)
    Springer
    Review of industrial organization 7 (1992), S. 83-90 
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    ISSN: 1573-7160
    Keywords: Concentration ; performance ; index ; information ; uncertainty
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract Industry indices, be they conduct or performance based, frequently guide government intervention activities and are used for both predictive and prescriptive purposes. Unfortunately, few existing indices of industrial concentration are based on underlying economic theory, and those that are based on theory are based on models of perfect information. We derive a general performance measure relevant for industries that experience imperfect information. We do so by specifying a social welfare function that reflects the objectives of the policymaker and maps characteristics of industry equilibria under uncertainty into a real number that summarizes industry performance. The importance of explicitly accounting for the information structure of an industry is illustrated by deriving a reduced form for the performance measure valid when a monopolist faces random demand.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00354849
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  • 15
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    On generalized measures of realization in uncertain environments (1992)
    Springer
    Theory and decision 33 (1992), S. 41-69 
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    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: Probability ; aggregation ; t-norm ; uncertainty ; ordered weighted average
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract We concern ourselves with the problem of determining the overall degree or measure of realization of an object based upon its occurrence in a collection of individual phenomena. We show that while probability is the classic measure of this type, it is but one of a whole family of possible such measures. We use the OWA operator to provide this family of measures. We investigate the situation in which our observations are both specific elements and subsets of some base set.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00133982
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  • 16
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    Failures of the reduction principle in an Ellsberg-type problem (1992)
    Springer
    Theory and decision 32 (1992), S. 77-100 
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    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: uncertainty ; experimental economics ; reduction principle
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Segal (1987) suggested that the Ellsberg paradox might be explained in terms of individuals mentally representing the decision problem as a two-stage lottery which they evaluated according to a non-expected utility model. This paper describes an experiment involving an explicitly two-stage analogue to an Ellsberg-type problem. This design substantially reduces the frequency of classic Ellsberg behaviour, but reveals other systematic violations of conventional theory. The paper discusses the particular patterns of choice and raises the more general problem of modelling individual decisions when the reduction principle does not hold.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00133629
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  • 17
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    Seismic hazard maps for Jordan and vicinity (1992)
    Springer
    Natural hazards 6 (1992), S. 201-226 
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    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: Seismic hazard ; Jordan ; earthquakes ; uncertainty ; Bayesian method ; intensity attenuation ; expert opinion
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Probabilistic methods are used to quantify the seismic hazard in Jordan and neighbouring regions. The hazard model incorporates the uncertainties associated with the seismicity parameters and the attenuation equation. Seven seismic sources are identified in the region and the seismicity parameters of these sources are estimated by making use of all the available information. Seismic hazard computations and the selection of peak ground acceleration and modified Mercalli intensity values at the nodes of a 25 × 25 km mesh covering the region under study are carried out by two different computer programs. The results of the study are presented through a set of seismic hazard maps displaying iso-acceleration and iso-intensity contours corresponding to specified return periods. The first set of maps is derived based on the seismicity data assessed in this study and display our ‘best’ estimate of the seismic hazard for Jordan and the neighbouring areas. The second set of maps which shows the ‘alternative’ estimate of seismic hazard is based solely on the seismicity parameters reported by other researchers. The third set of maps, called the ‘Bayesian’ estimate of seismic hazard, reflects the influence of expert opinion involving more conservative assumptions regarding the Red Sea and Araba faults.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00129509
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  • 18
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    Cognitive rationality and alternative belief measures (1991)
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 4 (1991), S. 299-324 
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    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: uncertainty ; probability ; rationality ; belief
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract In this article, we first examine the various criticisms of the probabilistic model. Then we introduce capacities in order to show that if a probability measure corresponds to anesthetizing the belief of the agent's knowledge, it is then possible to suggest another type of rationality—namely, being able to describe a wise and a rash behavior when facing risk—and therefore another model of belief under uncertainty. While trying to specify various alternative measures, possibility, necessity, and measures resulting from a triangular norm or from a triangular conorm, we finally try to define the field of application of the probabilistic model as well as a sign of the rationality choice: constraint of mass-unity for traditional rationality, and constraint of duality for the one we present.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00114159
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  • 19
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    Estimating hypocentral uncertainties for marine microearthquake surveys: A comparison of the generalized inverse and grid search methods (1991)
    Springer
    Marine geophysical researches 13 (1991), S. 161-171 
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    ISSN: 1573-0581
    Keywords: microearthquake ; hypocenter ; resolution ; error ; uncertainty
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract For microearthquake surveys conducted with small networks in regions where the seismic velocity structure has large vertical gradients, the formal errors accompanying hypocentral solutions obtained by a generalized inverse method may be misleading since they do not incorporate the effects of nonlinearity in travel times. An alternative method for estimating uncertainties involves calculating travel time residuals over a regular grid and using the F statistic to contour confidence volumes. We present a statistical expression for the latter confidence limits that is applicable when an independent estimate of arrival time errors is available from observations accumulated for a number of earthquakes. Synthetic experiments comparing the results of the grid search and generalized inverse methods show that in cases where solutions are obtained either without S wave information or for epicenters which lie well outside the network, the effects of nonlinearity on the shape of the confidence regions may be significant. However, for the well-observed events both methods yield comparable confidence volumes in good agreement with the distribution of hypocenters obtained from repeated locations incorporating random errors. The generalized inverse method has the advantage that it requires fewer calculations, so the examination of systematic errors in hypocentral parameters produced by uncertainties in the seismic velocity structure can be studied in a more computationally efficient manner. Except in the cases of poorly resolved earthquakes, the effects of nonlinearity on uncertainties in hypocentral parameters can be observed by the application of the F statistic to the variation of the generalized inverse travel time residuals with focal depth.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00286287
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  • 20
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    Planning of sensing tasks in an assembly environment (1991)
    Springer
    Journal of intelligent and robotic systems 4 (1991), S. 221-254 
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    ISSN: 1573-0409
    Keywords: Verification ; task-level programming ; robot vision ; uncertainty ; assembly planning ; fault tolerance ; classification ; prediction ; camera location
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Computer Science , Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics
    Notes: Abstract The purpose of this paper is to give an overview of past and recent work on planning sensing strategies for vision sensors. To achieve an economic use of robots in manufacturing, their programs must provide a high degree of fault-tolerance, security, and robustness to prevent unforeseen errors. Model errors (also termed uncertainties) are one of the most frequent reasons for such undesirable events. Robot systems can be made more reliable and fault-tolerant by providing them with capabilities of error detection and recovery, or error prevention. The latter may be achieved by reducing model errors using tactile and non-tactile sensors. The quality of a robot program synthesized by a task-level programming system depends on the accuracy of the model, since all information that is not explicitly given by the programmer must be derived from it. This means that the following questions have to be answered by the automatic task planner in order to plan non-tactile sensing strategies: (1) When do I have to use sensors to reduce uncertainty about the real world? (2) What do I have to use them for? (3) How do I have to use them to achieve the necessary information within an acceptable period of time? There are very few systems which deal broadly with the problem of robust robot programs, whereas there are numerous works on detail aspects of the field. The main approaches will be introduced and discussed in more detail. Finally, a new concept for generating sensor-integrated robust robot programs will be proposed.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00303225
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  • 21
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    Preference and belief: Ambiguity and competence in choice under uncertainty (1991)
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 4 (1991), S. 5-28 
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    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: ambiguity ; uncertainty ; preferences
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract We investigate the relation between judgments of probability and preferences between bets. A series of experiments provides support for the competence hypothesis that people prefer betting on their own judgment over an equiprobable chance event when they consider themselves knowledgeable, but not otherwise. They even pay a significant premium to bet on their judgments. These data connot be explained by aversion to ambiguity, because judgmental probabilities are more ambiguous than chance events. We interpret the results in terms of the attribution of credit and blame. The possibility of inferring beliefs from preferences is questioned.1
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00057884
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  • 22
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    A rational expectations equilibrium model of urban growth and land markets (1991)
    Springer
    The journal of real estate finance and economics 4 (1991), S. 225-265 
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    ISSN: 1573-045X
    Keywords: Land market ; uncertainty ; rational expectations ; urban growth
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents a simple model of urban spatial growth under uncertainty with an infinite time horizon. The rational expectations equilibrium path (REE path) of the urban land market is obtained in explicit form as a function of exogenously given stochastic processes of future population, transport and household income in the city. Spatial and temporal characteristics of asset prices along the REE path are examined in detail.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00173126
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  • 23
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    Uncertainty during tender offers and the measurement of shareholder wealth effects (1991)
    Springer
    Review of quantitative finance and accounting 1 (1991), S. 399-407 
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    ISSN: 1573-7179
    Keywords: tender offers ; uncertainty ; shareholder wealth ; gains measurement
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract Uncertainty concerning the ultimate outcome of tender offers may affect the measurement of changes in shareholder wealth. The uncertainty regarding the outcome of tender offers is measured by estimating the probability of acceptance of tender offers during the period when the tender offers are outstanding. The estimated probability of acceptance of tender offers implies that the amount of uncertainty prior to knowledge of the ultimate outcome is substantial and affects the measurement of expected equity gains. The uncertainty-adjusted measure of the change in shareholder wealth indicates that previous studies may have underestimated the gains expected to result from tender offers.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02408399
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  • 24
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    The representation of fuzzy relational production rules (1991)
    Springer
    Applied intelligence 1 (1991), S. 35-42 
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    ISSN: 1573-7497
    Keywords: Fuzzy sets ; expert systems ; relational antecedents ; uncertainty
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Computer Science
    Notes: Abstract We look at the representation within the framework of the approximate reasoning of relational type rules. A relational production rule consists of a rule in which one of the antecedent requirements involves the satisfaction of a relationship between two variables. An example of this type of rule is if lower and upper bounds are close then the uncertainty is low.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00117744
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    Shape prediction with a fuzzy uncertainty measure (1991)
    Springer
    Mathematical geology 23 (1991), S. 289-295 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-8868
    Keywords: deposit shapes ; prediction ; uncertainty ; fuzzy sets ; relations ; tolerances
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Mathematics
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents a theoretical background for the prediction method enabling estimating an unknownS n stratum-shape using the information aboutS 0, S1, ...,S n−1—known shapes, obtained during exploitation process in open-pit mines. The method allows to infer about the uncertainty of such a prediction and may form the basis for the estimation of ore reserves in the exploitation area, from information about shapes and boreholes descriptions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02065783
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    Communication of ambiguous risk information (1991)
    Springer
    Theory and decision 31 (1991), S. 159-173 
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    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: ambiguity ; uncertainty ; Ellsberg Paradox ; information
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper reports on the responses of 646 individuals to environmental risk information involving different forms of risk ambiguity. Recipients of more than one set of risk information do not simply average the risk levels provided. Rather, a variety of aspects of the nature of the risks that are communicated influence their probabilistic beliefs. Individuals' perceptions of the risk levels to which they are exposed are likely to be greater: (i) for more ambiguous risks, (ii) for risks for which the unfavorable risk evidence is presented last even when there is no temporal order, (iii) for risks for which the most unfavorable risk studies have been performed most recently, and (iv) for risks where there is asymmetry in the risk ambiguity that imposes substantial potential downside risks. Although these effects are modest for the median individual, the potential for extreme responses that reflect only the most adverse or the most favorable piece of information provided is quite prevalent. These findings are of interest more generally in that they indicate how individuals form their risk perceptions in the presence of risk ambiguity.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00132991
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    Incorporating economic risk aversion in agroforestry planning (1991)
    Springer
    Agroforestry systems 13 (1991), S. 63-71 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9680
    Keywords: Mathematical programming ; portfolio theory ; economics ; nonlinear programming ; linear programming ; quadratic programming ; risk ; uncertainty ; mean-variance analysis
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract The ability to use a knowledge of past market price fluctuations to reduce the risk of future financial returns is explored in the context of planning an agroforestry system with a cash crop component. It is demonstrated that if past crop price behavior is indicative of future price behavior, planting crops with stable and/or negatively correlated net revenues can reduce the variance of future net revenues and hence decrease the financial risks of agroforestry systems.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00129619
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    Calculation and uncertainty analysis of 210Pb dates for PIRLA project lake sediment cores (1990)
    Springer
    Journal of paleolimnology 3 (1990), S. 253-267 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: paleolimnology ; PIRLA ; 210Pb dating ; error analysis ; uncertainty ; constant-rate-of-supply model ; constant-flux model
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Lead-210 assay and dating are subject to several sources of error, including natural variation, the statistical nature of measuring radioactivity, and estimation of the supported fraction. These measurable errors are considered in calculating confidence intervals for 210Pb dates. Several sources of error, including the effect of blunders or misapplication of the mathematical model, are not included in the quantitative analysis. First-order error analysis and Monte Carlo simulation (of cores from Florida PIRLA lakes) are used as independent estimates of dating uncertainty. CRS-model dates average less than 1% older than Monte Carlo median dates, but the difference increases non-linearly with age to a maximum of 11% at 160 years. First-order errors increase exponentially with calculated CRS-model dates, with the largest 95% confidence interval in the bottommost datable section being 155±90 years, and the smallest being 128±8 years. Monte Carlo intervals also increase exponentially with age, but the largest 95% occurrence interval is 152±44 years. Confidence intervals calculated by first-order methods and ranges of Monte Carlo dates agree fairly well until the 210Pb date is about 130 years old. Older dates are unreliable because of this divergence. Ninety-five per cent confidence intervals range from about 1–2 years at 10 years of age, 10–20 at 100 years, and 8–90 at 150 years old.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00219461
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    A tale of two tails: An alternative characterization of comparative risk (1990)
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 3 (1990), S. 65-82 
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    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: risk ; uncertainty ; mean-preserving spreads ; star-shape
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract A characterization of comparative risk, parallel to but more restrictive than the Rothschild-Stiglitz (1970) characterization, is developed. As in Rothschild and Stiglitz, we develop a four-way characterization that consists of generating processes (a noise condition and generation by a sequence of special mean-preserving spreads), integral conditions, and preferences. The building blocks of this new order, Mean-preserving increases in risk about ν, where ν is any constant, are mean-preserving spreads whose centers have a nonempty intersection. If this intersection contains the mean of the distribution, the induced order, or mean-preserving increase in risk about the mean, conveys a particularly meaningful notion of an increase in risk as a buildup of the tails of the distribution.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00213261
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    Decision problems under uncertainty based on entropy functionals (1990)
    Springer
    Theory and decision 28 (1990), S. 143-172 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: Entropy ; decision analysis ; information economics ; uncertainty
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This essay intends to define the role of entropy, in particular, the role of the maximum entropy criterion with respect to decision analysis and information economics. By considering the average opportunity loss interpretation, the basic hypothesis for Shannon's derivation can be derived from properties of decision problems. Using the representation Bayes Boundary it is possible to show that selecting a single probability from a set by the Maximum Entropy Criterion corresponds to a minimax criterion for decision-making. Since problems of randomly accessing and storing information as well as communicating information can often be stated in terms of coding problems, this result might be used to develop strategies for minimizing retrieval time or communication costs.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00160933
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    Criterion function for accessibility, uncertainty problems in regional land-use planning (1970)
    Springer
    BIT 10 (1970), S. 95-105 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9125
    Keywords: Land-use planning ; accessibility ; uncertainty ; game theory ; linear programming
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics
    Notes: Abstract One objective in regional planning is the creation of communities with great accessibility. Thus we should plan the locations of inhabitants and the activities of the region so that the total accessibility will be maximized subject to some restrictions. This is a quadratic programming problem, which can be solved by quadratic programming techniques, but we cannot then take into account the uncertainties of the problem. In this paper a new criterion function is proposed for accessibility, uncertainty problems in regional land-use planning. It is derived from Hurwicz's generalized maximin principle. Many advantages are gained, for the planning problem is separated into linear programming problems, the uncertainties are taken into consideration as in game theory and the methods of parametric programming are available. A simplified problem of the populations of three town areas is studied and the method is generalized for problems of many activities and areas.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01940893
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