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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Experience-weighted attraction learning in sender-receiver signaling games (2000)
    Springer
    Economic theory 16 (2000), S. 689-718 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0479
    Keywords: Keywords and Phrases: Learning, Game theory experiments, Signaling games, Equilibrium refinement. ; JEL Classification Numbers: C72, C92.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Summary. We apply Camerer and Ho's experience-weighted attraction (EWA) model of learning to extensive-form signaling games. Since these games often have many equilibria, logical `refinements' have been used to predict which equilibrium will occur. Brandts and Holt conjectured that belief formation could lead to less refined equilibria, and confirmed their conjecture experimentally. Our adaptation of EWA to signaling games includes a formalization of the Brandts-Holt belief formation idea as a special case. We find that the Brandts-Holt dynamic captures the direction of switching from one strategy to another, but does not capture the rate at which switching occurs. EWA does better at predicting the rate of switching (and also forecasts better than reinforcement models). Extensions of EWA which update unchosen signals by different functions of the set of unobserved foregone payoffs further improve predictive accuracy.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001990050010
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    BUBBLES AND FADS IN ASSET PRICES (1989)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Journal of economic surveys 3 (1989), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1467-6419
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. The article considers the possibility that asset prices might deviate from intrinsic values based on market fundamentals. Three broad categories of theory are surveyed: (a) growing bubbles (b) fads and (c) information bubbles. ‘Sunspot’theories are also discussed. The paper covers both theory and evidence, and directions for future research are discussed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6419.1989.tb00056.x
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Recent developments in modeling preferences: Uncertainty and ambiguity (1992)
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 5 (1992), S. 325-370 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: ambiguity ; uncertainty ; Ellsberg paradox ; nonexpected utility
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract In subjective expected utility (SEU), the decision weights people attach to events are their beliefs about the likelihood of events. Much empirical evidence, inspired by Ellsberg (1961) and others, shows that people prefer to bet on events they know more about, even when their beliefs are held constant. (They are averse to ambiguity, or uncertainty about probability.) We review evidence, recent theoretical explanations, and applications of research on ambiguity and SEU.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00122575
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Making decisions about liability and insurance: Editors' comments (1993)
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 7 (1993), S. 5-15 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01065311
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Violations of the betweenness axiom and nonlinearity in probability (1994)
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 8 (1994), S. 167-196 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: expected utility ; generalized utility ; risk-aversion ; prospect theory ; Allais paradox ; betweenness ; disappointment-aversion ; D81 ; C91
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract Betweenness is a weakened form of the independence axiom, stating that a probability mixture of two gambles should lie between them in preference. Betweenness is used in many generalizations of expected utility and in applications to game theory and macroeconomics. Experimental violations of betweenness are widespread. We rule out intransitivity as a source of violations and find that violations are less systematic when mixtures are presented in compound form (because the compound lottery reduction axiom fails empirically). We also fit data from nine studies using Gul's disappointment-aversion theory and two variants of EU, which weight separate or cumulative probabilities nonlinearly. The three theories add only one parameter to EU and fit much better.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01065371
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  • 6
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    Decision Processes for Low Probability Risks: Policy Implications (1989)
    New York : Periodicals Archive Online (PAO)
    Journal of policy analysis and management. 8:4 (1989:Summer) 565 
    Details
    ISSN: 0276-8739
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Review of Risk Models
    URL: http://gateway.proquest.com/openurl?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&res_dat=xri:pao:&rft_dat=xri:pao:article:e220-1989-008-04-000001
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The Effects of Financial Incentives in Experiments: A Review and Capital-Labor-Production Framework (1999)
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 19 (1999), S. 7-42 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: experimental economics ; rationality ; bounded rationality ; judgment ; incentives ; experimental methodology
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract We review 74 experiments with no, low, or high performance-based financial incentives. The modal result has no effect on mean performance (though variance is usually reduced by higher payment). Higher incentive does improve performance often, typically judgment tasks that are responsive to better effort. Incentives also reduce “presentation” effects (e.g., generosity and risk-seeking). Incentive effects are comparable to effects of other variables, particularly “cognitive capital” and task “production” demands, and interact with those variables, so a narrow-minded focus on incentives alone is misguided. We also note that no replicated study has made rationality violations disappear purely by raising incentives.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1007850605129
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    An experimental test of several generalized utility theories (1989)
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 2 (1989), S. 61-104 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: expected utility ; generalized utility ; nonexpected utility ; risky choice ; Allais paradox
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract There is much evidence that people willingly violate expected utility theory when making choices. Several axiomatic theories have been proposed to explain some of this evidence, but there are few data that discriminate between the theories. To gather such data, an experiment was conducted using pairs of gambles with three levels of outcomes and many combinations of probabilities. Most typical findings were replicated, including the common consequence effect and different risk attitudes for gains and losses. There is evidence of both fanning out and fanning in of indifference curves, and both quasiconcavity and quasiconvexity of preferences. No theory can explain all the data, but prospect theory and the hypothesis that indifference curves fan out can explain most of them.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00055711
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Bounded rationality in individual decision making (1998)
    Springer
    Experimental economics 1 (1998), S. 163-183 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-6938
    Keywords: JEL Classification
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract The main objectives of this paper are: (i) To give a pithy, opinionated summary of what has been learned about bounded rationality in individual decision making from experiments in economics and psychology (drawing on my 1995 Handbook of Experimental Economics chapter); and (ii) mention some promising new directions for research which would be included if that chapter were written today.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01669302
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Bounded Rationality in Individual Decision Making (1998)
    Springer
    Experimental economics 1 (1998), S. 163-183 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-6938
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract The main objectives of this paper are: (i) To give a pithy, opinionated summary of what has been learned about bounded rationality in individual decision making from experiments in economics and psychology (drawing on my 1995 Handbook of Experimental Economics chapter); and (ii) mention some promising new directions for research which would be included if that chapter were written today.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009944326196
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