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  • Articles  (16,268)
  • Springer  (16,268)
  • National Academy of Sciences
  • 1995-1999  (12,850)
  • 1975-1979  (3,418)
  • Economics  (16,268)
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  • Articles  (16,268)
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  • 1
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    Springer
    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 59-69 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
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  • 2
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 43-57 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Peer review ; Referees ; Science ; A14
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract The quality of researchers' work in economics and other sciences is generally evaluated through a system of peer review. In an experimental test it is shown that the peer review system can be very inefficient by creating a bias towards incremental development of existing methods and against exploration of new methods. Previous studies on this issue have put the blame on biases in individual judgement. Here the inefficiency is shown to occur even when researchers are rational and have perfect information as a result of strategic uncertainty about the extent to which other referees reject new methods. The experiment also shows that the bias generated by peer review can be alleviated by shifting some quality evaluation to non-researchers, even if these are poor at discerning quality.
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  • 3
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 91-96 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 4
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 97-99 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 5
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 1-17 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Diffusion ; Productivity growth ; Information technologies ; 030-L9
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper investigates the effects of the rates of diffusion of the cluster of new information technologies on the growth of output and total factor productivity in the main OCED and industrializing countries in the late eighties. This diffusion approach contrasts the technology production function framework. It predicts that the rates of generation of new technologies are much less effective than the rates of diffusion and the investment efforts in determining the growth of labor productivity especially when capital-intensive technologies which command high levels of investments are considered. The results make it possible to elaborate and assess empirically the notion of key-technologies that provide positive externalities to the rest of the system.
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  • 6
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 19-42 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Emergence and evolution of the firm ; Product development ; Specialization ; Evolution of division labor ; Endogenous technical progress ; O4
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper considers the effects of the division of labor on economic growth and welfare in a general equilibrium environment where changes in individual specialization and product development can proceed simultaneously. The nature of the dynamic equilibrium is shown to depend on the interaction of transaction efficiency, economies of specialization, and economies of complementarity. Where the dynamic equilibrium involves evolution in the division of labor, this will be associated with increased per capita real income and hence economic growth. It is also shown that the emergence of firms is an aspect of the evolution of division of labor if transaction efficiency for a producer good is lower than that for labor used to produce this good.
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  • 7
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 100-102 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
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  • 8
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 103-117 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Competing technologies ; Local externality ; Probability of survival ; Predictability ; D43-L13
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract In this paper we study the effect of local network externalities on the societal adoption of competing technologies. Three cases are examined: single non-sponsored technology, single sponsored technology, and two non-sponsored technologies. The efficiency and predictability of the technology adoption process for each case is investigated. We demonstrate non-predictability for single technology case and efficiency for the two technology case. We show the firm sponsoring a technology may choose a strategy that leads to the extinction of the technology.
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  • 9
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 119-132 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Standards ; PC software ; Simulation ; L11 ; L15 ; L86 ; O33
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper develops a model to analyze the emergence of de facto or ‘market defined’ compatibility standards in the market for PC spreadsheet software over the period 1982–1988. The model is capable of integrating diverse fragments of empirical evidence and a number of important theoretical building blocks, in particular the analysis of gateways between different versions of the same package, product preannouncements, and diverse consumer tastes towards intrinsic quality and network externalities. The model also explores the implications of different functional forms for the relationship between installed base and the value of network externalities. The paper finds that at least some enhancements to the basic model of standards have to be incorporated to offer a reasonable approximation to developments in the PC spreadsheet software market. The simplest model of de facto standards is not able to describe developments in this market.
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  • 10
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 297-312 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Island LDC ; Technological retard ; Brain drain ; O1 ; P5 ; R0
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper argued the technological retard and its influence to stagnant economic growth in small least developed countries. First we measured the technological development by UNIDO's TCI, and found that the level of technical complexities in island or inland countries was lower than the normal level by 27 and 57 per cent. We also found that the development of technical complexity is very important to industrialization in developing countries. Thus the stagnant technological improvement is one of the reasons for low growth of LDCs handicapped by smallness or isolation. Secondly we analyzed the relation between stagnant technological improvement and the low growth of small LDCs by a simple growth model, which combines the Romer-type non-linear production function and human capital growth equation. The brain drain was explicitly considered a main hindrance of human capital formation in these LDCs.
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  • 11
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 333-339 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Economic development theory ; Development policy ; Development aid ; O1 ; O2 ; I3
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract The author considers the problem of the duration of development and its consequences for development assistance, in the developing as well as developed countries. Emphasis is given to the influence of development aid and it is argued that the time dimension has important policy implications and requires further thoroughgoing theoretical analysis.
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  • 12
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 409-419 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 13
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 393-408 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Life expectancy ; Economic growth ; Technological change ; 030 ; N30 ; J1
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract In little more than a century life expectancy has doubled in most parts of the world. Neither facts nor theory support the view that this Mortality Revolution is due to the Industrial Revolution and the era of rapid economic growth that ensued. Rather, both revolutions mark the onset of accelerated and sustained technological change in their respective areas. They occur largely independently of each other, the later occurrence of the Mortality Revolution being due to the later development of biomedical vis-a-vis physical knowledge. Comparative study of the two should prove fruitful. Although entrepreneurship is important in each, there appear to be differences in the underlying motivations and the role of private property and other institutions. Links between technological change, on the one hand, and scale of operation, capital inputs, and education, on the other, also offer promising possibilities for comparative study.
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  • 14
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 31-42 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Chaotic economy ; Control of chaos ; Deterministic chaos
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract An economic system which exhibits chaotic behaviour has been stabilized on various periodic orbits by use of the Ott-Grebogi-Yorke method. This procedure has been recently applied to controlling chaotic phenomena in physical, chemical and biological systems. We adopt this method successfully for Feichtinger's generic model of two competing firms with asymmetrical investment strategies. We show that the application of this control method to the particular economic process considered brings a substantial advantage: one can easily switch from a chaotic trajectory to a regular periodic orbit and simultaneously improve the system's economic properties. Numerical simulations are presented in order to illustrate the effectiveness of the whole procedure.
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  • 15
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 1-30 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Innovation ; Technology ; Master equation ; Survival probability ; Evolution ; O3
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract Technological innovations have been investigated by means of substitution and diffusion as well as evolution models, each of them dealing with different aspects of the innovation problem. In this paper we follow the well known research traditions on self-organisation models of complex systems. For the first time in the literature we show the existence of a specific niche effect, which may occur in the first stage of establishment of a new technology. Using a stochastic Master equation approach, we obtain analytical expressions for the survival probabilities of a new technology in smaller or larger ensembles. As a main result we demonstrate how a hyperselection situation might be removed in a stochastic picture and thresholds against the prevailing of a new technology in a step-by-step process can be overcome.
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  • 16
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 341-368 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: New technology ; R&D period ; Duration of cycle ; Economic growth ; C32 ; C41 ; E32 ; O41
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract How do growth and cycles interact? Endogenous growth and business cycle theories are integrated to explain business cycles over different frequencies, especially at lower frequencies, on the balanced growth path. A new variable-R&D time period-broadens the concept of intertemporal substitution and determines the durations of the medium and long cycles. As a result, the evolution of technology is separated from short-run shocks. A more promising new invention shrinks the R&D period since waiting is costly, which pushes up the level of economic activity and causes a boom, while a less promising new invention does the opposite. The level of economic activity in turn affects the near-term growth rate. Thus, a recession is not caused by a negative shock as in the standard real business cycle models, but can be associated with a positive, though lower, growth rate of technology. The results capture the major features of U.S. data in both time and frequency domains.
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  • 17
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 141-155 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Innovation ; Imitation ; Industrial change ; Technological potential ; O32 ; O33
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper aims to study those firms which have similar characteristics at the beginning of time. The objective is to observe the relation that exists between technological evolution, firms' performances and economic instability. This is done using an adaptation of the Nelson and Winter model, in order to show the possibility of various growth trajectories, and also to underline the heterogeneity of the firms. This heterogeneity corresponds to a period of economic instability, and itself only exists as a result of the specific nature of the technological trend. The theoretical interest lies in using the structures/performances relation, by according a central place to innovation.
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  • 18
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 125-140 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Spillovers ; Competence block ; Integrated production ; O2 ; O32
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract Recent econometric literature has demonstrated the existence of significant technological spillovers within and around groups of advanced (R&D-intensive) firms. I demonstrate thatcompetence blocks of advanced firms operate as technical universities and research institutes, unintentionally providing free educational and research services, often in areas where such services are not supplied by existing educational institutions or where the nature of competence makes traditional educational institutions incapable of supplying them. I demonstrate that the competence that diffuses from such competence blocks is botheconomic andtechnological, that it only diffuses under particular market circumstances, notably characterized by competition, and that the outcomes are typically experimental.Integrated production is an organizational technique to coordinate complex production in mechanical engineering industry within firms and over specialized consultants and subcontractors in the market. Such organizational competence is typically tacit and difficult to communicate outside its production context. Hence, such a production organization often functions as a competence block that spills knowhow throughout the industry. This organizational form is also very useful in illustrating the nature of the firm, the nature of the organizational competence that forms the backbone of western industrial technology and how that competence generates economic growth through the intermediation of firms. I use Swedish aircraft industry as a case illustration.
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  • 19
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 77-97 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Endogenous growth ; Innovation ; R&D ; Schumpeter ; Technical change ; Technological opportunity ; O2 ; O3
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract A model of endogenous growth, based on Schumpeter's notion of trustified capitalism, is developed and applied to firm-level data for the period 1973–1991. The model relates the market value of a firm to its current profits and to its R&D expenditures. The relationship depends upon the expected rate of knowledge growth, the expected value of an innovation and the elasticity of the R&D production function. Over the sample period, investors expected knowledge to grow at an average rate of 5 percent, a measure which reflects both process innovations and new product discoveries. Elasticities of the R&D production functions are estimated for thirteen industry groups and interpreted as measures of technological opportunity. There is no evidence of secular decline in technological opportunity over the sample period, but there is some evidence of diminishing returns to R&D intensity. Variations in technological opportunity over time are not correlated across industries. In contrast, the expected rates of knowledge growth at the industry level are highly correlated with the aggregate expected rate.
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  • 20
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 281-295 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Localized knowledge ; Networks ; Receptivity ; Connectivity ; O30
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract The development of knowledge within industries is strongly influenced by the network structure of relations among firms. Firms relying on localized knowledge can implement their technological capability not only by means of research and development expenditures and internal learning but also through the systematic absorption of technological and scientific externalities available in their environment. Percolation processes have been studied in physics as the outcome of two classes of forces termed as connectivity and receptivity. The former measures the number of connections in place among the agents in the network and the latter the capability of each agent to absorb the informations received. This paper applies the methodology of percolation processes to operationalize the implications for both the economics of innovation and for technology policy of the structural characteristics of innovation networks as communication systems.
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  • 21
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 325-333 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 22
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 175-197 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Science-based industry ; Spillover ; Technological externalities ; Innovation measurement ; Technological innovation ; Patent statistics ; Technology indicators ; D23-031-057
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract When quantifying spillover effects among technologies and between science and technology one faces the problem that clear-cut measurement procedures are difficult to define and to validate. The well-known approach by indexing certain outputs (patent documents) grasps only parts of the complex and feedback innovation-oriented processes. However, recently, new promising lines of research for understanding technological externalities have been embarked upon. New measurements of the science-technology-innovation interface are presented from three different aspects. First, the overall properties of technological spillover and, second, of science involvement in innovations are presented on a world-wide scale. The third main section of the results provides a panoramic view of scientific involvement in technology in terms of a country comparison. The contribution attempts to add quantitative evidence for an evolutionary understanding of the externalities between public science, latent public technology and private innovation.
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  • 23
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 199-216 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Economies of scale ; Computer industry ; Data envelopment analysis ; Phase transition ; 621 (technological change)
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract Up to recently, economists have had no good tools to measure the returns to scale of individual corporations in an industry. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a linear programming technique for determining the efficiency frontier (the envelope) to the inputs and outputs of a collection of individual corporations or other productive units. While DEA offers an avenue for calculating the returns to scale of individual corporations, the approach has been riddled by mathematical complications arising from the possibility of alternate optima. The present paper develops theory for calculating the entire range of these alternate optima. Furthermore, in a quite ambitions empirical application, DEA is employed to determine the time path of returns to scale of all publicly held U.S. computer companies over the time period 1980–1991. For the great majority of companies, a unique time path is obtained; only in less than 4 percent of the linear programming calculations is an entire range of alternate optima obtained. The results indicate that the computer industry was polarized into two camps: large aging corporations with decreasing returns to scale, and swarms of small upstart companies with advanced technology exhibiting increasing returns to scale.
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  • 24
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 261-280 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Discovery process ; Distribution of knowledge ; Equilibrium price ; Evolutionary market theory ; Invisible hand ; D50 ; D44 ; C78
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract The paper shows how, and under what minimal information supply conditions, a market finds its competitive equilibrium price and thus solves the so-calledtatonnement process, without sellers and buyers knowing the equilibrium price in advance. The information premises must be understood as a basic first approach, and do not necessarily mimic the real market process. Demonstration of a discovery process under these information handling conditions is an important finding for an evolutionary market theory. Additional information-processing elements should augment the efficiency of the discovery process. The results of the simulated market process set out above raise new questions. The role of institutional elements (such as the relevance of demand flexibility or “certainty” of knowledge in the learning process, etc.) is discussed further outside the context of the simulation model, providing new insight into the market process.
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  • 25
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 297-312 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Conventions ; Evolutionary games ; Interaction structure ; Automata networks ; C62 ; C72 ; D83
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper deals with the evolution of conventions in a finite population of boundedly rational players. We apply methods from the theory of automata networks to analyze the effects of different interaction structures. It is shown that the size of the reference group for each player has an important impact on the evolutionary stability of a particular convention, and that the interaction structure crucially determines the distribution of conventions in the population.
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  • 26
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 339-345 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This article is a review essay on Stolper’s recent book, Joseph Alois Schumpeter, The Public Life of a Private Man. The author recommends the book for a broad readership, although he raises a few critical observations.
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  • 27
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 313-324 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Evolutionary dynamics ; Equilibria ; Stability ; C72 ; C73 ; D83
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract We tackle three components of evolutionary modelling: payoffs, dynamical systems and equilibrium concepts. Firstly, we merely require that fitness functions are continuous. Secondly, we examine very general classes of dynamics. Thirdly, we give useful parallels to the Nash equilibrium and the evolutionarily stable strategy. Under (weakly) sign-compatible dynamics the change in population share of every (at least one) subgroup present in the population corresponds in sign with its relative fitness. At a saturated equilibrium, each subgroup with positive population share has highest fitness. We examine two evolutionary stability concepts: the evolutionarily stable equilibrium and the generalized evolutionarily stable state.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 411-423 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: JEL-Classification: L13 ; O31 ; Key words: Evolutionary economics  ;  Schumpeterian competition  ;  Innovation  ; Oligopoly
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. The modeling of Schumpeterian competition as a process of innovation, imitation and selection was first presented by Nelson/Winter (1982) in a simulation study and further analyzed in a similar but general analytical formulation by Iwai (1984a, 1984b). Their results concerning the relations between the combination of the different forces of Schumpeterian competition and market structure respectively the distributions of profits are interesting, but restricted to competitive markets. Comparing rules of thumb and satisficing for the Ramp;D decisions the present study analyzes the process of Schumpeterian competition in a heterogeneous oligopoly. Firstly, the authors find for the Ramp;D-concentration relation results contrary to the traditional interpretation of Schumpeter. Secondly, Iwai’s (1984a, 1984b) qualitative results hold in this less restrictive modeling.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 7 (1997), S. 23-40 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Key words: Discrete Dynamic Game Genetic Algorithm ; Open-Loop Strategies ; JEL-classification: C61; C73
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new algorithm for the approximation of non-quadratic, non-linear open-loop Nash Cournot equilibrium in a difference game of fixed duration (multiperiod) and initial state. The algorithm based on adaptive search procedure called genetic algorithm has been used to optimize strategies for N-person dynamic games. Since genetic algorithms require little knowledge of the problem itself, computations based on these algorithms are very attractive to complex dynamic optimization problems. The empirical evidences are also provided to show the success of the algorithm developed. A typical example in US macroeconomic policy selection for 1933-1936 yields evidence of political inference in the economy.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 7 (1997), S. 49-72 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Key words:Cognitive sciences‐Economic behaviour‐Constructivism JEL-classification:B41; D80
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. The knowledge of human knowledge claims a place of its own in economics. Beyond the walls of our discipline, spectacular progress is taking place in the field of empirical research into human knowledge -the so-called “cognitive sciences”. In the light of such advances, the old and new classicals' axiom that nothing scientific can be said beyond the axioms of substantive rationality now looks very much like the protective belt of a degenerating programme. On the other hand, criticisms and alternative programmes will hardly be effective so long as their arguments are purely negative or are drawn from armchair introspection. In the present study I wish to outline a pattern of human knowledge emerging from cognitive research that may be called “constructivist”, and to point out the restrictions it sets on economic analysis. It is also my argument that such a pattern is consistent with the present non- or post-Walrasian trends in economic theory, and that it may provide them with firmer cognitive foundations.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 7 (1997), S. 73-89 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Key words: Limit cycles Intertemporal optimisation ; Externality ; JEL-classification: C61; C62; D62
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper considers low dimensional (more precisely, one state variable) dynamic optimisation problems of competitive agents. These individual decisions lead to a dynamic externality for the evolution of the system. However, the impact of an individual and competitive agent is negligible and thus each agent considers this evolution as exogenous data. This leads, assuming rational expectations (perfect foresight due to the deterministic set up), to motions in the three dimensional space of state, costate and externality. Considering the fact that such externalities are widespread, e.g., R&D in the literature on new growth theory, pollution in environmental economics, etc., the incorporation of such externalities due to competitive markets is important, yet this incorporation may alter the stability of the system. Indeed, complex policies such as stable limit cycles are sustainable in such a low-dimensional economy, even for a separable and strictly concave model.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 7 (1997), S. 147-167 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Key words: Evolutionary economics ; History of economic thought ; Population thinking ; Innovation ; JEL-classification: B31; L2
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change , by Richard Nelson and Sidney Winter continues to have great influence on evolutionary economic thought. While their modeling techniques and the breadth of their vision for evolutionary theorising must be seen as seminal and effective innovation in economic theory, they were not the first inventors of such a theory. Close examination reveals that much of the economic theory was anticipated by Jack Downie whose book, The Competitive Process, was published in 1958. The extent of anticipation is remarkable, with not merely the two elements of population ecology, selection and mutation, but the way in which they are theorised to work being replicated by Nelson and Winter.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 347-359 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract In an evolutionary dynamic economic theory the accumulation of durable goods (i.e., wealth) is a key feature. Here we show that the wealth of individual economic agents can be measured by the progress function (PF). PF is a function of goods and money under straightforward assumptions, notably the ‘no-loss’ rule for transactions. We derive explicit formulae for wealth from the PF. We also show how the compatibility of the PF and the neoclassical economics deriving the conventional utility functions from the PF.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 375-409 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Key words: Evolutionary dynamics ; Innovation ; Technological regimes ; Firms’ entry
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper contains a description of an evolutionary model of industrial dynamics and a report on the simulation study of the model. The presentation of the model is partitioned into two sections. In the first section I focus on the economic features of industrial development with no technological change imbedded, while an extended version of this model with the search for innovation process included is presented in the next section. In the next two sections, results of the simulation study on technological regimes and firm entry are presented. Technological regimes relate to different types of innovation captured by the model, so I consider the cost regime, the technical performance regime and the capital productivity regime. In Sect. III I investigate the influence of the different types of innovation on the development of the industry, particularly on industry concentration and on the products’ price distribution, and in the fourth section an evolution of industry structure with the possibility of firm entry is investigated.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 7 (1997), S. 269-289 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Key words: Cobweb models ; Bounded rationality ; Controlling chaos ; JEL-classification: E32
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. In this paper we use a simple model of evolutionary market dynamics to illustrate how chaotic behavior can be controlled by making small changes in a parameter that is accessible to the decision makers. This approach is commonly referred to as `targeting' – one can easily switch from a chaotic evolution of the market to any desired regular motion. We show that complex dynamics leads to inferior performance in our model and that an application of such a correction mechanism by the decision makers of the firms yields a considerable improvement in the system's economical properties in terms of profits and profitability. We present numerical simulations in order to illustrate the effectiveness of this method.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 7 (1997), S. 331-338 
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 7 (1997), S. 355-373 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Key words: Mathematical methods and programming ; Analysis of collective decision-making ; Criteria for decision-making under risk and uncertainty ; General aggregative models ; JEL-classification: C6; D7; D81; E1
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. The aim of the present work is to scrutinise the economic use of phase transitions formalisms and to assess their relevance. The formal correspondence between the issue of micro-macro passage when agents are interacting and the physics problem of phase transition is first set out. The second section presents two formal tools likely to be associated with these problems and to exhibit the typical phenomena of phase transition. It is then possible to highlight the key points upon which the phase transition phenomena in these formal representations rely, and then to assess the relevance of their economic “counterparts” associated with these crucial characteristics. A more general appraisal of these formalisms for economics is finally sketched.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 7 (1997), S. 395-413 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Key words: Externalities ; Heterogeneity ; Local interactions ; Global interactions ; Phase transition ; Standardization ; Stochastic models ; Technological competition ; Technological niches ; Economic landscapes ; JEL-classification: C00; O33; R10
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. The article presents a stochastic interaction model based on Gibbs random fields to analyze technological competition in a population of heterogeneous adopters with local or global externalities. The relationships between both heterogeneity and externalities and imperfect and asymmetric information are first emphasized. When local externalities and heterogeneity coexist, the technological landscapes of the industry are then shown to depend on the relative influence of these two parameters, with a phase transition: technologies coexist either in approximately equal market shares when heterogeneity is high enough or with one of the technologies only surviving in technological niches when local externalities dominate. Niches do also spontaneously appear: technological options survive in economic space due to the existence of some amount of heterogeneity among agents. On the contrary, when global externalities are added, pure standardization almost always occurs. We finally argue that different public policies should be designed so as to fit with different technological landscapes.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 8 (1998), S. 1-13 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Key words: Equilibrium selection ; Scale functions ; Stochastic evolutionary games ; JEL-classification: C70; C72
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. We present here an evolutionary game model, and address the issue of equilibrium selection working with the scale function of a diffusion process describing the dynamics of population processes with mutation modeled as white noise. This model is the same as the one in Foster and Young (1990) but with a different interpretation at the boundaries and with different mutation modelings. First, we justifiably assume that the boundaries of the solution of the stochastic differential equation are absorbing so that the first boundary of the interval [0,1] hit will determine the equilibrium selected. Then, working with the scale function, we obtain for 2×2 symmetric games and different mutation parameters, some new and interesting equilibrium selection results. The aim of this article is to describe another method of approach in evolutionary games with mutation which we believe will prove to be very useful in studying more general normal form games and different mutation modelings.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 8 (1998), S. 15-43 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Key words: Evolutionary games ; Adjustment dynamics ; ESS ; Evolutionary equilibrium ; JEL-classification: B25; C62; C72; C73
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. Evolutionary games have considerable unrealized potential for modeling substantive economic issues. They promise richer predictions than orthodox game models but often require more extensive specifications. This paper exposits the specification of evolutionary game models and classifies the possible asymptotic behavior for one and two dimensional models.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 7 (1997), S. 291-313 
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    Keywords: Key words: Technological learning ; Energy modeling ; Mixed integer programming ; JEL-classification: C61; O14; O33
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    Notes: Abstract. Technology dynamics is endogenized into a bottom-up energy systems model. Mixed integer programming is used to incorporate into the model the non-convex relation between declining specific investment in energy technologies and overall experience or capacities installed. The initial results achieved with this approach show the importance of early investment in new technology developments. New technologies will not become cheaper irrespective of research, development, and demonstration (RD & D) decisions; they will do so only if determined RD&D policies and investment strategies enhance their development.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 7 (1997), S. 339-353 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Key words: Market organisation ; Network ; Communication ; Evolution ; Learning ; JEL-classification: C70; D23; D40; L11
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    Notes: Abstract. The purpose of this paper is to suggest a view of the economy as a network of links between the individuals involved. One approach is to consider the structure of links as fixed as is the case with spatial models in which agents are situated on a lattice, another is to regard all links as possible but stochastic. If the probability of any of the links existing is uniform we have the situation familiar from the “population games” of evolutionary game theory. The basic idea here is to allow the network to evolve and to make the probability of each of the links dependent on the experience of the agents involved. Such analysis can give rise to interesting behaviour on the aggregate level which is very different from that which might have been predicted by looking at the individuals in isolation.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 7 (1997), S. 375-393 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Key words: Genetic algorithms ; Competition ; Evolutionary dynamics ; Population learning ; JEL-classification: D83; O31
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. Evolutionary modellers have recently taken an interest in the use of computer simulations based on genetic algorithms; this paper offers two contributions to this literature. In the initial sections we aim to place the GA into a general review of evolutionary dynamics, including Fisher's Principle. In the second half of the paper, we offer a modified GA that replaces the selection and crossover operators with a selective transfer operator. We argue this modified algorithm has a ready interpretation in the modelling of learning, namely as a proxy for imitation in a population working with modular technologies. A simple application is used to give an initial assessment of the algorithm and to test Fisher's Principle.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 7 (1997), S. 415-433 
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    Keywords: Key words: Forward induction ; Deviation ; Discrete evolutionary processes ; Mutation ; Limit distribution ; JEL-classification: C70; C72
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    Notes: Abstract. The paper deals with the driving forces behind behavior selection in both forward induction refinements and discrete evolutionary processes with mutations. Its main purpose is to analyse an important difference due to the support of the mutations. It shows that similar driving forces can allow to outweigh this difference. To this aim it constructs the limit Markov graph, a tool used to compute the probabilities in the limit distribution.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 7 (1997), S. 435-457 
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    Keywords: Key words: Evolutionary theory ; Endogeneous growth ; Human capital ; Innovation ; Diffusion ; Learning ; Artificial intelligence ; Microsimulation ; JEL-classification: D21; D83; J24; O12; O15; O31
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    Notes: Abstract. We analyze the co-evolution of the performances of firms and of the economy in an evolutionary micro-to-macro model of the Swedish economy. The model emphasizes the interactions between human capital (or competences) and technological change at the firm level and their effects on aggregate growth, taking into account the micro-macro feedbacks. The model features learning-by-doing, incremental and radical innovations, user-producer learning at the firm level, and a change in the techno-economic paradigm. We find that there is an optimal sequence for the firm to allocate their resources: (1) build a general human capital stock before the change in the techno-economic paradigm, (2) spend on R&D, and (3) invest in specific human capital. Innovators fare better than imitators on average, not only because they innovate, but also because they build a competence base, which supports the learning from other firms.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 8 (1998), S. 117-117 
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 8 (1998), S. 45-66 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Key words: Artificial economic evolution ; Schumpeterian competition ; Bounded rationality ; Collusion ; Laissez-faire ; JEL-classification: L1; O3; D6
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. A simulation model is used to construct a regime of artificial economic evolution, where Schumpeterian process competition prevails, in the presence of technological uncertainty and bounded rationality. The output decision of the firm is represented by a behavioural algorithm, which allows for the presence of collusive behaviour. The purpose of the experiments is to go some way towards addressing the twin issues of the nature of the relationship between market structure and industry performance in a dynamic setting, and the contention that the evolutionary metaphor implies a laissez-faire stance with respect to policy issues. Under the simplifying assumptions of the model, experiments suggest that industries which generate high average concentration over a given period can compare favourably with industries that generate low average concentration, if the time profiles of both welfare and concentration are analysed. Also, the experiments suggest that the industry will naturally evolve a structure best suited to exploit the technological environment, but despite this there is still a role for intervention into the competitive process.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 8 (1998), S. 157-175 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Key words: Evolutionary economics ; Learning ; Entrepreneurship ; Firm dynamics ; Biotechnology ; Systems of innovation ; Tacit knowledge ; JEL-classification: O31 ; L65
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    Notes: Abstract. This article discusses the three concepts of `learning', `entrepreneurship' and `dynamics of the firm' in order to bridge some of the gap between micro and macro levels of analysis in evolutionary economics. This article addresses the following four issues: 1) Localized learning dependent on the extent to which knowledge is individual vs. collective, 2) Entrepreneurship distributed in systems of innovation, 3) Entrepreneurs changing selection criteria, and 4) Rationality vs. uncertainty affecting the dynamics of firms.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 8 (1998), S. 423-432 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Key words: Learning in games ; Evolutionary games ; Evolutionary economics ; JEL-classification: A12; B41; C73
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. The Theory of Learning in Games by Fudenberg and Levine surveys a key branch of evolutionary economics from a mainstream perspective. Its publication provides an opportunity to reassess the prospects and goals for evolutionary economics.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 9 (1999), S. 27-65 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Key words: Market game ; Oligopoly ; Adaptive behavior ; Learning ; JEL-classification: C72; C91; D83
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. We consider an oligopolistic market game, in which the players are competing firms in the same market of a homogeneous consumption good. The consumer side is represented by a fixed demand function. The firms decide how much to produce of a perishable consumption good, and they decide upon a number of information signals to be sent into the population in order to attract customers. Due to the minimal information provided, the players do not have a well-specified model of their environment. Our main objective is to characterize the adaptive behavior of the players in such a situation.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 9 (1999), S. 67-96 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Key words: Market share dynamics ; Industry life-cycle ; Stock price volatility ; JEL-classification: L11; 030; G12
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. Market share instability, during certain stages of the industry life-cycle, has become a stylized fact in the industrial organization literature. In the finance literature, volatility in the form of excess volatility, i.e. the much larger volatility of stock prices than dividends (although stock prices should in theory trace the present value of future dividends), has given rise to controversies regarding stock price determination (Campbell and Shiller, 1988; Shiller, 1989). Recent evolutionary models, both theoretical and empirical, have tied the presence of market share instability to industry specific variables, such as specific periods in the industry life-cycle and specific “technological regimes”. The object of the paper is to explore whether there is a relationship between market share instability and stock price volatility and to what degree this relationship is connected to the concept of the industry life-cycle, and hence to industry specific factors. To do so, we explore the relationship in one particular industry, the US automobile industry. Since neither life-cycle nor finance theories attack this problem directly, we use insights from both approaches to build hypotheses which guide the data analysis. The empirical results confirm many of these hypotheses, suggesting that the degree of excess volatility is indeed partly affected by industry specific factors.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 9 (1999), S. 109-133 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Key words: Discontinuity ; Evolution ; Logistic diffusion ; Non-linearity ; Non-stationarity ; Self-organisation ; Spectral methods ; JEL-classification: C4; C5; N1; N2
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper offers an econometric methodology for the detection of self-organisational change (defined in terms of the presence of time irreversibility, structural change and fundamental uncertainty) in economic processes that follow logistic diffusion growth paths in historical time. The approach we adopted is built upon recent developments in `moving window' spectral methods which are applied to the scaled residuals generated by estimated logistic diffusion models. We illustrate the use of such methods by examining the case of a financial instrument, namely, the Australian Building Society Deposit, which experienced logistic growth in its market share until bank deregulation was enacted in the 1980s. We show that there is clear evidence that self-organisational change is present over the historical period considered.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 9 (1999), S. 157-185 
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    Keywords: Key words: Economic growth ; R&D ; Scale effects ; JEL-classification: O2; O3
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. Early models of Schumpeterian growth incorporate scale effects predicting that large economies grow faster than small economies, and that population growth causes accelerating per capita income growth. An absence of clear empirical evidence for these scale effects has led some researchers to question the foundations underlying the Schumpeterian approach to growth. This paper reviews empirical evidence on the relationship between scale and growth, and recent attempts to construct Schumpeterian growth models without scale effects.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 9 (1999), S. 211-224 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Key words: Oligopoly ; Bertrand equilibrium ; Cournot equilibrium ; Natural selection ; Evolutionary games ; JEL-classification: D43; L13; C72
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    Notes: Abstract. We study economic natural selection in classical oligopoly settings. When underlying pure strategies consist of a finite number of prices, convex monotonic dynamics always converge under a weak condition to the smallest price in the support of the initial state that exceeds marginal cost. When underlying pure strategies consist of a finite number of quantities, monotonic dynamics always converge under a specific condition to a quantity equal or similar to classical Cournot equilibrium.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 9 (1999), S. 225-242 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Key words: Learning ; Computational economics ; Genetic algorithms ; Markov process ; Evolutionary dynamics ; JEL classifications: C63 – C73 – D83
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This article tries to connect two separate strands of literature concerning genetic algorithms. On the one hand, extensive research took place in mathematics and closely related sciences in order to find out more about the properties of genetic algorithms as stochastic processes. On the other hand, recent economic literature uses genetic algorithms as a metaphor for social learning. This paper will face the question of what an economist can learn from the mathematical branch of research, especially concerning the convergence and stability properties of the genetic algorithm. It is shown that genetic algorithm learning is a compound of three different learning schemes. First, each particular scheme is analyzed. Then it is shown that it is the combination of the three schemes that gives genetic algorithm learning its special flair: A kind of stability somewhere in between asymptotic convergence and explosion.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 9 (1999), S. 287-329 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Key words: Comparative industry evolution ; Technological evolution ; Institutional economics ; JEL-classification: O31 ; O32
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper analyses how US, Japanese, and European HDD firms responded to technological shifts in the hard disk industry from 1973 through 1996. Leading incumbent US HDD firms were frequently forced out of the market. Leading Japanese incumbent firms in the same industry, however, were not displaced by these changes. US startup firms thrived under these technological shifts, displacing US incumbent firms. Japanese startups did poorly. European firms encountered the worst of both worlds: its incumbent firms were frequently displaced by technological changes, as were US firms; while startup firms (with one exception) performed as poorly as those in Japan.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 9 (1999), S. 373-399 
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    Keywords: Key words: Geographical clustering ; Dynamics ; Growth ; Entry ; Computer industry ; JEL-classification: L10 ; O30
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper compares the dynamics of the process by which geographical clusters emerge in the US and UK computer industries, by modelling the evolution of firm growth and entry. In both countries, new companies are attracted by industry strength in particular sub-sectors in a particular region. Moreover, incumbent firms located in a cluster that is strong in their own sub-sector of the industry tend to grow faster than average. While there are some second order differences between the models estimated for the US and the UK, it appears that the dynamics of clustering are similar. In particular, there is no evidence that clustering effects are weaker in the UK than in the US.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 9 (1999), S. 431-451 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Key words: Learning – Knowledge – Human capital – Economic development ; JEL-classification: J24, J44, L23, O15
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper examines the `learning economy' from the perspective of occupational characteristics and changes in the British labour market between 1980 and 1992. Following a discussion of the learning and knowledge economy, cross-sectional employment data are analysed to ascertain which occupations can be classified as knowledge-based. Longitudinal career history data are then used to trace the flows of these `knowledge workers' over time. Sectoral shifts are examined, with a particular focus on the knowledge-intensive service sectors. The data come from the Employment in Britain survey: a large-scale employee survey from 1992. The approach used allows us to measure somewhat intangible aspects of economic behaviour such as learning and tacit knowledge and attempt to trace their flows. Shifts in knowledge from the manufacturing to the service sector are shown to be important and related to previous work which demonstrated the importance of knowledge intensive business services for both output and productivity in manufacturing.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 9 (1999), S. 265-270 
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    Keywords: Key words: Involuntary unemployment ; Increasing returns on capital ; Rubinstein game ; Fair equilibrium ; Monetary policy ; JEL-classification: E 10; E 12
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. The Hahn-Solow macromodel is characterized by fixed nominal wages, increasing returns on capital and pricesetting under an imperfect competitive environment. It proposes that a fall in unemployment is always accompanied by a rise in real wages. The two authors demonstrate that involuntary unemployment is compatible with equilibrium in the goods- and labormarket but they can hardly explain the macroeconomic records of the recent three decades in the US and in Europe.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 9 (1999), S. 367-371 
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    Keywords: Key words: Bertrand ; Oligopoly ; Evolution ; Evolutionary stability ; JEL-classification: D43 ; L13 ; C72
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. It is shown that the equilibrium notion of an evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) does have predictive power for standard models of Bertrand competition. This is in contrast to a recent claim by Qin and Stuart (1997). The claim is based on the observation that the solution concept ESS behaves discontinuously when finite (discrete) action games approach an infinite (continuous) action game in the limit. Furthermore, it is argued that from a model-theoretic point of view evolutionary stability in prices (i.e. in the Bertrand model) is quite different from evolutionary stability in quantities (i.e. in the Cournot model).
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 9 (1999), S. 331-366 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Key words: Corporate technological competence ; Technological persistence ; Firms ; Innovation ; Growth ; JEL-classification: L23 ; O31 ; N80
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. It is argued that the firm is the principal source of innovation and growth, a device for the establishment of technological competence, and for its continued development over time. Markets, products and background knowledge may change quite dramatically over time. Yet as a result of the cumulative nature of learning in the production processes of firms, the profile of corporate technological competence will tend to persist over quite long periods, provided there is institutional continuity. Within the same firm, competence may evolve into related areas, but the firm's technological origins will remain identifiable in its subsequent trajectories. However, if the institution itself changes more dramatically, this technological persistence may be disrupted. Supporting evidence is provided from data on the patenting of 30 large US and European companies, which have been continuously active since the interwar period. The science and the knowledge base, and the composition of products and markets may shift quite radically, but the firm's productive and technological system itself is potentially more stable. The firm provides a vehicle for potential institutional continuity and a device for managing transitions within the economic system.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 9 (1999), S. 411-429 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Key words: New technology – Economic geography – Evolutionary economics – Agglomeration economies – Regional adjustment ; JEL-classification: O18, O30, R00, R11
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This article attempts to explore how key notions from Evolutionary Economics, such as selection, path-dependency, chance and increasing returns, may be applied to two key topics in Economic Geography. The first issue is the problem of how to specify the (potential) impact of the spatial environment on new variety in terms of technological change. Evolutionary thinking may be useful to describe and explain: (1) the process of localized `collective' learning in a regional context, (2) the adjustment problems that regions may be confronted with in a world of increasing variation, and (3) the spatial formation of newly emerging industries as an evolutionary process, in which the spatial connotation of increasing returns (that is, agglomeration economies) may result in a spatial lock-in. The second issue is the problem of how new variety may affect the long-term evolution of the spatial system. We distinguish three approaches that, each in a different way, apply evolutionary notions to the nature of spatial evolution. This is strongly related to the issue whether mechanisms of chance and increasing returns, rather than selection and path-dependency, lay at the root of the spatial evolution of new technology.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 9 (1999), S. 453-464 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Key words: Forward looking models – Heterogeneous agents – Bounded rationality learning ; JEL-classification: C62, D83, D84, E40
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. We study a class of forward looking economic models with heterogeneous agents in a bounded rationality setting. The agents employ the same recursive learning rule to update beliefs but are characterized by different memory parameters. The peculiarity of the learning mechanism is that the learning rate is not vanishing in the limit. Differently from what is obtained in the case of a vanishing learning step, i.e., the stability conditions in the heterogeneous agents case are those of the representative agent model, we show that heterogeneity matters for the expectational stability of a stationary perfect foresight equilibrium and that the stability parameter restrictions with heterogeneous agents are stronger than in the case of homogeneous agents.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 9 (1999), S. 487-526 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Key words: Schumpeterian perspectives – Innovation cycles – Logistic biological growth – Patents – Diversity of technology dynamics and clusters ; JEL-classification: O30, O31, P49
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. Since the works by the business cycle theorists in the 1930s, no attempts have been made to study empirically the long term evolution paths of individual technologies starting with long time series. This is an empirical exploration and confirmation of the now almost assumed image or metaphor of the way technology develops; that it follows an S-shaped growth path which is commonly associated with a similar shaped diffusion function of entrepreneurial activity. The paper also confirms the diversity of technology dynamics and explores how technological cycle takeoffs appear to be clustered within certain historical epochs. The results have implications for our understanding of the evolution paths of individual technologies, and of the evolution of technological systems and waves of innovation. By use of computational statistics, logistic growth functions are fitted to US patent stocks, 1920–1990, at a detailed level of aggregation, including chemical, electrical/electronic, mechanical, transport and non-industrial technologies. Some practical considerations when developing an empirically testable model of innovation cycles are addressed in the paper as well.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 71-89 
    ISSN: 1432-1386
    Keywords: Damoclean tax ; Innovation ; R&D ; Tax credit ; Cooperative R&D ; L13 ; L43 ; O32 ; O38 ; H21 ; H25
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    Notes: Abstract The paper presents a novel tax that is designed to improve the performance of research and development (R&D) investments. Ideally, the tax allows the technical efficiencies of monopoly while bringing about the desirable effects of the competitive pressure of R&D rivalry. Thus, with the tax, the state can sanction a monopoly of R&D investment in order to attain technical efficiencies and yet avoid the underinvestment in R&D that would result without competitive pressures. A critique of the tax emphasizes the problems of implementing it and offers a more practical alternative that would achieve the same desirable effects.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 157-172 
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    Keywords: Local bifurcation analysis ; Neimark-Sacker bifurcation ; Quasiperiodic dynamics ; Addiction ; Habit formation ; C62-D11
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract A time-discrete descriptive model of habit formation is presented. Addictive behaviour is damped by a threshold which adapts itself to the habit. This simple framework is able to explain periodic, quasi-periodic as well as chaotic consumption patterns of addictive consumers. It turns out that both a high adjustment rate and a steep consumption function favour complex (chaotic) patterns.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 133-156 
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    Keywords: Innovation ; Entrepreneurship ; R&D ; Technology ; Diversification ; B31 ; O10 ; O31 ; P10
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper analyzes the evolution and role of corporate entrepreneurship in Swedish industry, particularly for the 1945–1980 period, based on data on the 100 economically most important innovations during this period. Privately owned large corporations (Schumpeter Mark II) dominated in launching innovations in almost all industrial sectors and in all subperiods but decreasingly so. 20% of the innovations were launched by new firms (Schumpeter Mark I) but most of these new firms were spun-off and/or acquired by large corporations. State entrepreneurship was marginal. Universities played an important role, although sector-specific. New firms and existing firms had similar growth rates and almost identical and short gestation times to international markets for their innovations. 80% of the corporate innovations were product renewals rather than product diversifications or process innovations. No evidence of an evolution from autonomous over corporate to state entrepreneurship, as hypothesized by Schumpeter, was found. Evolution of a dynamic coexistence of. these forms of entrepreneurship is hypothesized in this paper. The paper finally presents a model, synthesizing Schumpeter Mark I and II, for analyzing technological change and entrepreneurship.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 180-180 
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 181-187 
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 229-242 
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    Keywords: Economic history ; Industrial revolution ; Technological diffusion ; N13 ; O31 ; O14
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    Notes: Abstract This paper considers the diffusion of British technology to the Continent, especially France and Prussia, during the industrial revolution. Particular attention is paid to the various transmission mechanisms and to differences in the speed of diffusion. It is shown that the economic growth of a country and its absorption of foreign technology tends to follow a logistic curve. This suggests that linear and purely economic explanations of technological transmission may be inadequate.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 243-268 
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    Keywords: Technological paradigms ; Technological change ; Theory of innovations ; National systems of innovation ; O14 ; O30 ; O53 ; O54
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents an evolutionary microeconomic theory of innovation and production and discusses its implications for development theory. Using the notions of technological paradigm and trajectory, it develops an alternative view of firm behavior and learning. It is shown then how these are embedded in broader national systems of innovation which account for persistent differences in technological cappacities between countries. Finally, this “bottom-up” evolutionary analysis is linked with an institutional “top-down” approach, and the potential fruitfulness of this dialogue is demonstrated.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 269-284 
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    Keywords: Technology ; Growth ; Development ; O1 ; O3 ; O4
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents an overview and assessment of the theoretical and empirical work on catch-up and growth, with particular emphasis on the impact of technology, and the consequences for developing countries. The point of departure is the neoclassical theory of economic growth, as laid out by Solow and others in the 1950s, and the applied work that followed (“growth accounting”). Then the contributions from economic historians and more heterodox economists, such as Schumpeter, Kaldor and others, are discussed, followed by an account of the most recent theoretical developments (“new growth theory”) and the empirical (econometric) work in this area.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 173-180 
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 209-227 
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    Keywords: Economic Growth ; R&D ; Catching up ; Convergence ; Long waves ; O3 ; O4 ; N1
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    Notes: Abstract We generalize a single-country model of endogenous growth to the case of a multi-country world economy in which technology transfer and behavioral imitation are the possible means of interaction between countries. The model is evolutionary in the sense that the economies are disaggregated by behaviourally heterogeneous firms, market selection occurs, and the innovation process is uncertain and stochastic. We demonstrate that this structure leads to a complex process of convergence and divergence over time that can be characterized as 1/f noise. Spectral analysis of measures of convergence for six core OECD countries in the period 1870–1989 reveals a similar pattern in the empirical data.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 189-208 
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    Keywords: Economic development ; Economic history ; O10 ; N10
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    Notes: Abstract The linkages between the economic development of developed and developing countries are analyzed historically. The analysis is divided into epochs, distinguished by global trade regimes and by common characteristics of long term economic growth. The break throughs in long distance transport technology which occured during the industrial revolution created a global economy in which the rythm of economic activity in developing economies became linked to that of developed economies. The major transmission mechanisms were international trade, international migration and international capital flows. Exports were the main engine of growth in developing countries. But the effects of export expansion varied across countries. The speed of transmission of the industrial revolution to developing countries depended on their institutional readiness; countries with most developed capitalist institutions in factor markets were the first to develop. The extent of diffusion of the benefits of growth from export expansion within developing countries also depended on the nature of their institutions, both economic and political. Finally, policies with respect to international trade, investment and agriculture were also critical to the speed and diffusion of economic development.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 285-295 
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    Keywords: Growth ; Comparative ; Convergence ; O41
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    Notes: Abstract The literature on catching up suggests that due to diffusion and imitation, relatively backward countries should grow at a faster rate. A model along lines suggested by Abramovitz is constructed to examine this. A country's change in productivity (technological gap) is supposed to depend on the productivity gap itself (relatively backwardness), social capability of adopting new technology, and R&D-activity. Together with a vintage growth model, this set-up gives a lot of different possible explanations of why growth rates differ among nations. The possibilities of both catching up and falling behind are considered.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 313-326 
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    Keywords: International trade ; Standard-lowering competition ; Capital mobility ; Steady-state ; Ecological basis ; F19 ; F21 ; Q32
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract The author argues against free trade as a “default position” for international trade. He shows that arguments for free trade based on comparative advantage do not hold in reality. First, free trade makes cost-internalization for single countries difficult leading to standard-lowering competition and misallocation. Second, the international mobility of capital leads to absolute rather than comparative advantage for single countries, thus leading to maldistribution. Finally, the ecological basis seriously limits the scope for catching-up. Priority should be given alternatively to domestic production of a steady-state type with balanced trade.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 327-332 
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    Keywords: Growth ; Sustainable development ; Welfare ; I31 ; O47
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    Notes: Abstract In this paper, the normative content of the concept of GNP growth is questioned, challenging the welfare implications of the traditional notions of input and output. It is argued that the attainment of “sustainable development” requires a reorientation towards a qualitative rather than quantitative framework of analysis.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 115-120 
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 99-113 
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    Keywords: Evolutionary theory ; Industrial life cycle ; Industrial policy ; international trade ; F13 ; L16 ; L52 ; O33 ; O34
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper uses the biological concepts ofheterochrony andK- and r-strategies to construct an economic theory about industry life cycles and trade policy. Relations between various types of heterochrony and different competitive environments provide a general explanation for the Japanese and Korean successes in international trade, the decline of the U.S. and E.U. performance and the relative failures of some Latin-American states.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 121-123 
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 369-392 
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    Keywords: Competition ; Variety ; Technological ; Replicator ; O3 ; O30
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    Notes: Abstract In this paper a model of technological evolution based on replicator dynamics is developed. Such a model is based on a twin characteristics representation of product technology and on a population approach. The model can give a general representation of technological evolution, but this paper concentrates on the relationship between variety and competition. Variety is considered to be a very important variable influencing economic development. By means of the characteristics and population approach adopted in this paper it is possible to distinguish between inter-and intra-technology competition. In this paper it is demonstrated that the variety of the system can only increase if intra-technology competition is more intense than inter-technology competition. Intuitively this implies that new technologies will only be able to emerge if incumbent technologies experience the competition coming from the new ones to be weaker than their own internal competition.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 5 (1995), S. 420-423 
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 43-76 
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    Notes: Abstract In this essay, we argue that rational choice (RC) provides an inadequate foundation for a theory of economic action. After defining RC sufficiently broadly to encompass much of the bounded rationality literature as well as neoclassical optimization theory, we present three principal arguments against RC. The first is cognitive: economic actors are experts at what they do, and the cognitive processes that underlie experitise are not consistent with RC, descriptively, prescriptively or positively. The second argument begins with the observation that economic action takes place in and through relationships between agents, and these relationships may generate actions that connot be localized to individual agents. We argue that these generative relationships are essential to understanding such fundamental economic phenomena as innovation, and the actions that result from them are not amenable to analysis from a RC perspective. Finally, we argue that most economic agents lack the judgement and execution coherence required by RC. In a companion paper, we propose an alternative foundation for a theory of economic action that builds on the critique of RC presented in this paper.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 217-224 
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 225-237 
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 239-260 
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    Keywords: Synergetics ; Self-organisation ; Time-irreversibility ; Evolution ; Structural change ; O30 ; O31 ; C60 ; C63
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    Notes: Abstract This paper deals with synergetic methods, which have developed as a sub-field of the self-organisation approach in the natural sciences. Such methods have been used successfully to model structural transitions in physio-chemical contexts. The synergetic approach is explained in a non-technical way and the main elements of the synergetic methodology are introduced. The extent to which such methods can be applied in the presence of historical time series data, which are subject to underlying processes of evolutionary economic change, is assessed. Proposals, concerning more appropriate synergetic methods for evolutionary economic application, are considered.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 124-124 
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 157-173 
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    Keywords: 621 technical change ; innovation ; research and development
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    Notes: Abstract The main purpose of our paper is to present a model which allows a comparison of different types of technology policies to be made. It appears that there is a kind of model which is appropriate to that purpose but which belongs to the theory of the firm. Indeed, one of the characteristics of technology policies is the degree of centralization of decision; as it is in the design of firm organization. It seems that a model like AOKI's (1986) presents sufficient properties to be used in our context. The aim of this exercise is to compare vertical and horizontal institutional frameworks for technology policies, more precisely diffusion and mission oriented policies. This framework will be applied to the case of some technology policies in the Federal Republic of Germany (before re-unification): programmes in production technologies and the Transrapid programme.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 239-260 
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    Keywords: Key words: Synergetics  ;  Self-organisation  ;  Time-irreversibility  ;  Evolution  ; Structural change ; JEL-classification: O30; O31; C60; C63
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper deals with synergetic methods, which have developed as a sub-field of the self-organisation approach in the natural sciences. Such methods have been used successfully to model structural transitions in physio-chemical contexts. The synergetic approach is explained in a non-technical way and the main elements of the synergetic methodology are introduced. The extent to which such methods can be applied in the presence of historical time series data, which are subject to underlying processes of evolutionary economic change, is assessed. Proposals, concerning more appropriate synergetic methods for evolutionary economic application, are considered.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 281-295 
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    Keywords: Key words: Localized knowledge  ;  Networks  ;  Receptivity  ;  Connectivity ; JEL-classification: O30
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Summary The development of knowledge within industries is strongly influenced by the network structure of relations among firms. Firms relying on localized knowledge can implement their technological capability not only by means of research and development expenditures and internal learning but also through the systematic absorption of technological and scientific externalities available in their environment. Percolation processes have been studied in physics as the outcome of two classes of forces termed as connectivity and receptivity. The former measures the number of connections in place among the agents in the network and the latter the capability of each agent to absorb the informations received. This paper applies the methodology of percolation processes to operationalize the implications for both the economics of innovation and for technology policy of the structural characteristics of innovation networks as communication systems.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. i 
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 339-345 
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    Notes: Abstract This article is a review essay on Stolpers' recent book, Joseph Alois Schumpeter, The Public Life of a Private Man. The author recommends the book for a broad readership, although he raises a few critical observations.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 361-373 
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    Keywords: Overlapping Generations Model ; Cycles ; Sunspots ; Genetic Algorithms ; C63 ; D83
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract We analyze the learning behaviour of a Simple Genetic Algorithm in an overlapping generations model with one consumption good and fiat money. It is shown by simulations, that in cases where periodic equilibria exist the equilibrium of period two is learned by a Genetic Algorithm and not the monetary steady state. We further show that proper coding leads to convergence of the GA towards the sunspot equilibrium. If individuals who believe in the impact of sunspots are brought together with individuals who ignore the sunspots, the sunspot believes will in most cases drive the other individuals out of the population.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 411-423 
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    Keywords: L13 ; O31 ; Evolutionary economics ; Schumpeterian competition ; Innovation ; Oligopoly
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract The modeling of Schumpeterian competition as a process of innovation, imitation and selection was first presented by Nelson/Winter (1982) in a simulation study and further analyzed in a similar but general analytical formulation by Iwai (1984a, 1984b). Their results concerning the relations between the combination of the different forces of Schumpeterian competition and market structure respectively the distributions of profits are interesting, but restricted to competitive markets. Comparing rules of thumb and satisficing for the R&D decisions the present study analyzes the process of Schumpeterian competition in a heterogeneous oligopoly. Firstly, the authors find for the R&D-concentration relation results contrary to the traditional interpretation of Schumpeter. Secondly, Iwai's (1984a, 1984b) qualitative results hold in this less restrictive modeling.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 334-338 
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 361-373 
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    Keywords: Key words: Overlapping Generations Model ; Cycles ; Sunspots ; Genetic Algorithms. ; JEL-classification: C63; D83
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. We analyze the learning behaviour of a Simple Genetic Algorithm in an overlapping generations model with one consumption good and fiat money. It is shown by simulations, that in cases where periodic equilibria exist the equilibrium of period two is learned by a Genetic Algorithm and not the monetary steady state. We further show that proper coding leads to convergence of the GA towards the sunspot equilibrium. If individuals who believe in the impact of sunspots are brought together with individuals who ignore the sunspots, the sunspot believes will in most cases drive the other individuals out of the population.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 297-312 
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    Keywords: Key words: Conventions  ;  Evolutionary games  ;  Interaction structure  ;  Automata networks ; JEL-classification: C62; C72; D83
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper deals with the evolution of conventions in a finite population of boundedly rational players. We apply methods from the theory of automata networks to analyze the effects of different interaction structures. It is shown that the size of the reference group for each player has an important impact on the evolutionary stability of a particular convention, and that the interaction structure crucially determines the distribution of conventions in the population.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 261-280 
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    Keywords: Key words: Discovery process  ;  Distribution of knowledge  ;  Equilibrium price  ; Evolutionary market theory  ;  Invisible hand ; JEL-classification: D50; D44; C78
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    Notes: Abstract. The paper shows how, and under what minimal information supply conditions, a market finds its competitive equilibrium price and thus solves the so-called tatonnement process, without sellers and buyers knowing the equilibrium price in advance. The information premises must be understood as a basic first approach, and do not necessarily mimic the real market process. Demonstration of a discovery process under these information handling conditions is an important finding for an evolutionary market theory. Additional information-processing elements should augment the efficiency of the discovery process. The results of the simulated market process set out above raise new questions. The role of institutional elements (such as the relevance of demand flexibility or “certainty” of knowledge in the learning process, etc.) is discussed further outside the context of the simulation model, providing new insight into the market process.
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    Journal of evolutionary economics 6 (1996), S. 313-324 
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    Keywords: Key words: Evolutionary dynamics  ;  Equilibria  ;  Stability ; JEL-classification:C72; C73; D83
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. We tackle three components of evolutionary modelling: payoffs, dynamical systems and equilibrium concepts. Firstly, we merely require that fitness functions are continuous. Secondly, we examine very general classes of dynamics. Thirdly, we give useful parallels to the Nash equilibrium and the evolutionarily stable strategy. Under (weakly) sign-compatible dynamics the change in population share of every (at least one) subgroup present in the population corresponds in sign with its relative fitness. At a saturated equilibrium, each subgroup with positive population share has highest fitness. We examine two evolutionary stability concepts: the evolutionarily stable equilibrium and the generalized evolutionarily stable state.
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