ALBERT

Description: The second guide star catalog (GSC-2) is a project that aims to create a complete catalog of stars and galaxies to about the 18th magnitude, and would contain colors, magnitudes, positions and proper motions. The catalog would provide an object list for the construction of an input catalog for possible future astrometric satellites, such as the global astrometric interferometer for astrophysics (GAIA) satellite. With a schedule that is compatible with the projected timeframe of GAIA, the GSC-2 could be available in time to support the preparatory astrophysical observations for an input catalog. The availability of the digitalized images for the preparation of finding charts would improve the efficiency of this task.

Description: We present radio observations of the gravitational lens PKS 1830-211 at 8.4 and 15 GHz acquired using the Very Large Array. The observations were made over a 13 month period. Significant flux density changes over this period provide strong constraints on the time delay between the two lensed images and suffest a value of 44 +/- 9 days. This offers new direct evidence that this source is indeed a gravitational lens. The lens distance is dependent upon the model chosen, but reasonable limits on the mass of the lensing galaxy suggest that it is unlikely to be at a redshift less than a few tenths, and may well be significantly more distant.

Description: The power laws are approximately f(exp -1.9), f(exp -1.9), and f(exp -2.1) respectively for the Grigg-Shjellerup (GS), Giacobini-Zinner (GZ), and Halley (H) comets. Other than similarities in the power spectra, the magnetic field turbulence is considerably different at the three comets. Phase steepening is demonstrated to occur at the trailing edges of the GS waves. This is probably due to nonlinear steepening plus dispersion of the left-hand mode components, i.e., the turbulence is whistler-mode. This too can be explained by nonlinear steepening plus dispersion of the magnetosonic waves. At the level of GS and GZ turbulence development when the spacecraft measurements were made, classical three-wave processes, such as the decay or modulation instabilities do not appear to play important roles. It is most likely that the nonlinear steepening and dispersive time scales are more rapid than three-wave processes, and the latter had not had time to develop for the relatively new turbulence. The wave turbulence at Halley is linearly polarized. The exact nature of this turbulence is still not well understood. Several possibilities are suggested, based on a preliminary analyses.

Description: A preliminary comparison of the GEOS-1 (Goddard Earth Observing System) data assimilation system convective cloud mass fluxes with fluxes from a cloud-resolving model (the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model, GCE) is reported. A squall line case study (10-11 June 1985 Oklahoma PRESTORM episode) is the basis of the comparison. Regional (central U. S.) monthly total convective mass flux for June 1985 from GEOS-1 compares favorably with estimates from a statistical/dynamical approach using GCE simulations and satellite-derived cloud observations. The GEOS-1 convective mass fluxes produce reasonable estimates of monthly-averaged regional convective venting of CO from the boundary layer at least in an urban-influenced continental region, suggesting that they can be used in tracer transport simulations.

Description: A study of X-ray emission from five short-period Algol-type binaries based on observations with Advanced Satellite for Cosmology and Astrophysics (ASCA) and ROSAT is presented. We have observed RZ Cas with both satellites, and beta Per, U Cep, delta Lib, and TW Dra with ROSAT. Significant intensity variations are seen in the X-ray emission from RZ Cas, U Cep, TW Dra, and delta Lib. These variations seem unrelated to the eclipsing behavior of these systems and are probably due to either rotational modulation of compact active regions on the surfaces of the chromospherically active secondary components or to flaring activity in the systems. The spectra of all but one of the systems require the presence of at least two discrete plasma components with different temperatures (0.6 - 0.7 keV, and approximately 2 keV) and the abundances of the medium-Z elements 20% - 50% of the solar photospheric values. The high resolving power and signal-to-noise ratio of the ASCA spectra allow us to individually constrain the coronal abundances of O, Ne, Mg, Si, S, and Fe in RZ Cas. We demonstrate that, if we use the elemental abundances and temperatures obtained from the analysis of their ASCA spectra as (fixed) inputs, to fit the ROSAT PSPC spectra well requires the presence of a third component (kT approximately 0.2 - 0.3 keV) in RZ Cas and beta Per. A continuous emission measure model of the power-law type (EM(T) variesas (T/T(sub max)(sup alpha)) generally gives a poor fit to the ASCA and ROSAT data on most sources. Circumstellar or circumbinary absorbing matter seems to be present in some of these systems, as indicated by the variable total column density needed to fit their X-ray spectra.

Description: The U.S. upper Midwest was subjected to severe flooding during the summer of 1993. Heavy rainfall in the Mississippi River basin from April through July caused flooding on many Midwest rivers, including the Mississippi, Illinois, Missouri, and Kansas Rivers. The flood crest of 15.1 m at St. Louis, Missouri, on 1 August 1993 was the highest ever measured, surpassing the previous record of 13.2 m set on 28 April 1973. Damage estimates include at least 47 flood-related deaths and a total damage cost of $12 billion. Remotely sensed imagery of severe flooding in the U.S. Midwest was obtained under cloud-free skies on 29 July 1993 by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Airborne Simulator (MAS). The MAS is a newly developed scanning spectrometer with 50 spectral bands in the wavelength range 0.55-14.3 micrometers. Estimation of the total flooded area in the MAS scene acquired near St. Louis was accomplished by comparing the MAS scene to a Landsat-5 thematic mapper (TM) scene of the same area acquired on 14 April 1984 in nonflood conditions. For comparison, the MAS band centered at 0.94 micrometers and the TM band centered at 1.65 micrometers were selected because of the high contrast seen in these bands between land and water-covered surfaces. An estimate of the area covered by water in the MAS and TM scenes was obtained by developing land/water brightness thresholds from histograms of the MAS and TM digital image data. Afetr applying the thresholds, the difference between the area covered by water in the MAS and TM scenes, and hence the flooded area in the MAS scene, was found to be about 396 sq km, or about 153 square miles.

Description: Shortwave radiative fluxes that reach the earth's surface are key factors that influence atmospheric and oceanic circulations as well as surface climate. Yet, information on these fluxes is meager. Surface site data are generally available from only a limited number of observing stations over land. Much less is known about the large-scale variability of the shortwave radiative fluxes over the oceans, which cover most of the globe. Recognizing the need to produce global-scale fields of such fluxes for use in climate research, the World Climate Research Program has initiated activities that led to the establishment of the Surface Radiation Budget Climatology Project with the ultimate goal to determine various components of the surface radiation budget from satellite data. In this paper, the first global products that resulted from this activity are described. Monthly and daily data on a 280-km grid scale are available. Samples of climate parameters obtainable from the dataset are presented. Emphasis is given to validation and limitations of the results. For most of the globe, satellite estimates have bias values between +/- 20 W/sq m and root mean square (rms) values are around 25 W/sq m. There are specific regions with much larger uncertainties however.

Description: The deployment of a space-based Doppler lidar would provide information that is fundamental to advancing the understanding and prediction of weather and climate. This paper reviews the concepts of wind measurement by Doppler lidar, highlights the results of some observing system simulation experiments with lidar winds, and discusses the important advances in earth system science anticipated with lidar winds. Observing system simulation experiments, conducted using two different general circulation models, have shown (1) that there is a significant improvement in the forecast accuracy over the Southern Hemisphere and tropical oceans resulting from the assimilation of simulated satellite wind data, and (2) that wind data are significantly more effective than temperature or moisture data in controlling analysis error. Because accurate wind observations are currently almost entirely unavailable for the vast majority of tropical cyclones worldwide, lidar winds have the potential to substan- tially improve tropical cyclone forecasts. Similarly, to improve water vapor flux divergence calculations, a direct measure of the ageostrophic wind is needed since the present level of uncer- tainty cannot be reduced with better temperature and moisture soundings alone.

Description: The 183-GHz water vapor line was tentatively detected on Mars in January 1991, with the IRAM 30-m millimeter antenna, under extremely dry atmospheric conditions. The measurement refers to the whole disk. The spectral line, although marginally detected, can be fit with a constant H2O mixing ratio of 1.0 x 10(exp -5), which corresponds to a water abundance of 1 pr-microns; in any case, an upper limit of 3 pr-microns is inferred. This value is comparable to the very small abundances measured by Clancy (1992) 5 weeks before our observation and seems to imply both seasonal and long-term variations in the martian water cycle.

Description: Titan's large free eccentricity results in significant tidal dissipation. This can be used to constrain the existence and depth of hydrocarbon oceans. A hydrodynamical-numerical 2 deg ocean tide model has been constructed to investigate this connection. The model allows some simple land configurations. The results indicate that existence of such an ocean over the age of the solar system is hard to explain, as is the existence of the large eccentricity itself. If such an ocean exists, it is likely to be more than 500 m deep, ignoring the influence of land masses.

Description: The 'satellite-gauge model' (SGM) technique is described for combining precipitation estimates from microwave satellite data, infrared satellite data, rain gauge analyses, and numerical weather prediction models into improved estimates of global precipitation. Throughout, monthly estimates on a 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees lat-long grid are employed. First, a multisatellite product is developed using a combination of low-orbit microwave and geosynchronous-orbit infrared data in the latitude range 40 degrees N - 40 degrees S (the adjusted geosynchronous precipitation index) and low-orbit microwave data alone at higher latitudes. Then the rain gauge analysis is brougth in, weighting each field by its inverse relative error variance to produce a nearly global, observationally based precipitation estimate. To produce a complete global estimate, the numerical model results are used to fill data voids in the combined satellite-gauge estimate. Our sequential approach to combining estimates allows a user to select the multisatellite estimate, the satellite-gauge estimate, or the full SGM estimate (observationally based estimates plus the model information). The primary limitation in the method is imperfections in the estimation of relative error for the individual fields. The SGM results for one year of data (July 1987 to June 1988) show important differences from the individual estimates, including model estimates as well as climatological estimates. In general, the SGM results are drier in the subtropics than the model and climatological results, reflecting the relatively dry microwave estimates that dominate the SGM in oceanic regions.

Description: 24 years of Lunar Laser Ranging (LLR) observations and 16 years of Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observations are combined in a global analysis to yield improved estimates of the Earth's precession and nutation. The correction to the International Astronomical Union (IAU) (1976) precession constant inferred from this joint VLBI/LLR analysis is -3.00 +/- 0.20 milliarcsec/yr (mas/yr). A significant obliquity rate correction of -0.20 +/- 0.08 mas/yr is also found. In all, 32 forced nutation coefficients are estimated. These coefficients confirm that the IAU (1980) nutation theory is in error by several mas. The estimated nutation coeficients are found to vary by as much as several tenths of mas, depending on the a priori nutation model used to analyze the VLBI and LLR data. Forced circular nutations derived from this analysis agree with the ZMOA-1990-2 nutation theory at the 0.2 mas level for the 18.6 yr terms, and at the 0.05 mas level for the other terms (periods less than or = 1 yr). A retrograde free core nutation with an amplitude of 0.20 mas is also detected. Its phase is found to be very sensitive to the precise value of the free core nutation period used in the solution. Separate analyses of four independent subsets of the LVBI data indicate no significant variations of the free core nutation since 1988. The pre-1988 estimates of the free core nutation are consistent with the post-1988 estimates but are not accurate enough to rule out possible variations of the free core nutation at these earlier epochs.

Description: The Ulysses spacecraft has gathered data from within flows from the Sun's southern polar coronal hole, the first in situ measurement of this region. We present a brief analysis of the heliospheric magnetic field data from this region, using a fractal method. As is the case near the ecliptic, estimated spectral exponents are near 5/3 on spacecraft scales of seconds to minutes. On longer time scales, however, there appears to be a significantly different population in polar flows, which is similar to that found by the Helios spacecraft in fast solar wind flows at 0.3 AU.

Description: The lower stratospheric variability of equatorial water vapor, measured by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), follows an annual cycle modulated by the quasi-biennial oscillation. At levels higher in the stratosphere, water vapor measurements exhibit a semi-annual oscillatory signal with the largest amplitudes at 2.2 and 1hPa. Zonal-mean cross sections of MLS water vapor are consistent with previous satellite measurements from the limb infrared monitor of the stratosphere (LIMS) and the stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment 2 (SAGE 2) instruments in that they show water vapor increasing upwards and the polewards from a well defined minimum in the tropics. The minimum values vary in height between the retrieved 46 and 22hPa pressure levels.

Description: A calculation, employing a detailed model of neutral oxygen, is carried out to give fluorescent line intensities expected in a long-proposed photoexcitation by accidental resonance (PAR) process in which hydrogen Lyman-beta photoexcites the oxygen spectrum. The results pertain to the optically thin case but provide an upper limit to the fluorescent intensities which can be attained. They are applied to analyze line ratios involving the strong 8446 A line observed in classical novae during the diffusion-enhanced and Orion phases. Operation of the PAR process in the novae is verified. It is found that photoexcitation rates in the ejecta reach values greater than 0.1/sec, corresponding to hydrogen Lyman-beta radiation field intensities greater than 1250 ergs/cm/sec/sr.

Description: We have investigated the properties of the OMC-2 and OMC-3 cores in the Orion giant molecular cloud using high spatial spectral resolution observations of several transitions of the (13)CO, C(18)O, C(S-32) and C(S-34) molecules taken with the SEST telescope. The OMC-2 core consists of one clump (22 solar mass) with a radius of 0.11 pc surrounded by a cluster of 11 discrete infrared sources. The H2 column density and volume density in the center of this clump are 2 x 10(exp 22)/sq cm and 9 x 10(exp 5)/cu cm respectively. From a comparison between physical parameters derived from C(18)O and C(S-32) observations we conclude that the molecular envelope around the core has been completely removed by these sources and that only the very dense gas is left. OMC-3 shows a more complex elongated structure in C(18)O and CS than OMC-2. The C(S-32) and C(S-34) maps show that the denser region can be separated into at least sub-cores of roughly equal sizes (radius approximately equals 0.13 pc), with n(H2) = 6 x 10(exp 5)/cu cm, and a mass of 10 solar mass (from C(S-32)). The very different masses obtained for the central core from C(18)O and C(S-32) (55 and 12 solar mass respectively) indicate that a massive envelope is still present around the very dense sub-cores. We report the first detection of several molecular outflows in OMC-3. The presence of an IRAS source and the first detection of these outflows confirm that star formation is going on in OMC-3. Based on the different physical properties of these regions compared with OMC-1, OMC-2 appears to be in an intermediate evolutionary stage between OMC-1 and OMC-3.

Description: The depletion of condensable elements onto grains in gaseous nebulae can provide evidence that dust is well mixed with the ionized gas. Al and CA are two of the most depleted elements in the general interstellar medium, and it is therefore important to measure their abundances within the ionized region of nebulae. We compute a large grid of photoionization models and identify sets of line ratios which are relatively insensitive to stellar and nebular parameters, and are thus excellent diagnostics for determining relative abundances. Based on the absence of the ((Ca II) lambda lambda 291, 7324 doublet and the detection of Al II) lambda lambda 2660, 2669 in the ultraviolet, we determine the extent of aluminum and calcium depletion onto grains in NGC 7027 and the Orion Nebula. Our results show a approximately 0.3 dex depletion for Al, but a depletion of more than two and a half orders of magnitude for Ca. A similar calculation based on Mg II lambda 2798 yields roughly a 0.8 dex depletion for Mg. This reaffirms the discrepancy between depletion determined from high and low ionization Mg lines. We also find evidence for a 'depletion gradient' in Ca in NGC 7027, since the calcium depletion we infer for the outer, more neutral regions using (Ca II) is somewhat higher than that inferred for the inner high-ionization region, using (Ca v). This gradient can test current models of the survival of grains within hot ionized gas.

Description: The absolute rate constant for the reaction O((3)P) + HOBr has been measured between T = 233K and 423K using the discharge-flow kinetic technique coupled to mass spectrometric detection. The value of the rate coefficient at room temperature is (2.5 +/- 0.6) x 10(exp -11)cu cm/molecule/s and the derived Arrhenius expression is (1.4 +/- 0.5) x 10(exp -10) exp((-430 +/- 260)/T)cu cm/molecule/s. From these rate data the atmospheric lifetime of HOBr with respect to reaction with O((3)P) is about 0.6h at z = 25 km which is comparable to the photolysis lifetime based on recent measurements of the UV cross section for HOBr. Implications for HOBr loss in the stratosphere have been tested using a 1D photochemical box model. With the inclusion of the rate parameters and products for the O + HOBr reaction, calculated concentration profiles of BrO increase by up to 33% around z = 35 km. This result indicates that the inclusion of the O + HOBr reaction in global atmospheric chemistry models may have an impact on bromine partitioning in the middle atmosphere.

Description: The modern scenario of evolution of massive binary systems predicts the existence of a subclass of binary radio pulsars (PSRs) with black holes (BHs). Their Galactic number was evaluated as approximately 1 per 1000 single pulsars (Lipunov et al. 1994b). Distinctive properties of such binaries would be (1) mass of the unseen companion M(sub c) greater than 3-4 solar mass and (2) absence of eclipses of the pulsar radiation with no distinctive variance of the dispersion measure along the pulsar orbit. The pulsars themselves must be similar to standard isolated ones. The recently discovered binary 1 s pulsar PSR B0042-73 = PSR J0045-7319 in the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) with a massive companion in a highly elongated (eccentricity e =0.8) 51 day orbit (Kaspi et al. 1994) may be the first such pulsar with a BH. The paradoxical fact that the first pulsar discovered in the SMC proved to be in a binary system can be naturally understood if its companion actually is a 10-30 solar mass black hole. We illustrate this fact by the numerical calculation of evolution of radio pulsars after a star formation burst.

Description: We calculate the structure of an effectively optically thin and geometrically thin accretion disk in the Kerr geometry, including electron-positron pairs. We show that the properties of the disk solutions are strongly dependent on the angular momentum of the central black hole. We find that close to a rapidly rotating hole there can be an appreciable pair density even for modest accretion rates. Pair critical accretion rates recently discovered in Newtonian disk models are also shown to be present in the general relativistic models, and we show that the geometrically thin disk approximations easily break down for rapidly rotating holes.

Description: We examine the hydrodynamic origin of relativistic outflows in active galactic nuclei (AGN). Specifically, we propose that the presence of a population of relativistic hadrons in the AGN 'central engine' and the associated neutron production suffices to produce outflows which under rather general conditions could be relativistic. The main such condition is that the size of the neutron production region be larger than the neutron flight path tau(sub n) approximately 3 x 10(exp 13) cm. This condition guarantees that the mean energy per particle in the proton fluid, resulting from the decay of the neutrons outside their production region, be greater than the proton rest mass. The expansion of this fluid can then lead naturally to a relativistic outflow by conversion of its internal energy to directed motion. We follow the development of such flows by solving the mass, energy as well as the kinetic equation for the proton gas in steady state, taking into account the source terms due to compute accurately the adiabatic index of the expanding gas, and in conjunction with Bernoulli's equation the detailed evolution of the bulk Lorentz factor. We further examine the role of large-scale magnetic fields in confining these outflows to produce the jets observed at larger scales.

Description: A diagnostic analysis of the VVP (volume velocity processing) retrieval method is presented, with emphasis on understanding the technique as a linear, multivariate regression. Similarities and differences to the velocity-azimuth display and extended velocity-azimuth display retrieval techniques are discussed, using this framework. Conventional regression diagnostics are then employed to quantitatively determine situations in which the VVP technique is likely to fail. An algorithm for preparation and analysis of a robust VVP retrieval is developed and applied to synthetic and actual datasets with high temporal and spatial resolution. A fundamental (but quantifiable) limitation to some forms of VVP analysis is inadequate sampling dispersion in the n space of the multivariate regression, manifest as a collinearity between the basis functions of some fitted parameters. Such collinearity may be present either in the definition of these basis functions or in their realization in a given sampling configuration. This nonorthogonality may cause numerical instability, variance inflation (decrease in robustness), and increased sensitivity to bias from neglected wind components. It is shown that these effects prevent the application of VVP to small azimuthal sectors of data. The behavior of the VVP regression is further diagnosed over a wide range of sampling constraints, and reasonable sector limits are established.

Description: Analysis of the version 16 Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) CH4 data shows that this long-lived trace gas is well correlated with potential vorticity (PV) computed from National Meteorological Center balanced winds. Analyzing late September and October 1992 data, we show that very low CH4 values are confined to the interior of a vortex edge defined by the maximum gradient in PV. The CH4 and HF time tendency is used to estimate the descent rate in the Antarctic vortex. After removing a component of the trend correlated with the HALOE sampling pattern, we compute the lower stratosphere vertical descent rates and net heaing rates in the spring Antarctic vortex. Our computations of the spring Antarctic vortex heating rates give -0.5 to -0.1 K/day. Over the winter season, the overall lower stratospheric descent rate averages about 1.8-1.5 km/month. These computations are in line with radiative transfer estimates of the heating and descent rate. The HALOE data thus appear to be consistent with the picture of an isolated lower stratospheric Antarctic vortex.

Description: Using delta C-13 measurements in atmospheric CO2 from a cooperative global air sampling network, we determined the partitioning of the net uptake of CO2 between ocean and land as a function of latitude and time. The majority of delta C-13 measurements were made at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR) of the University of Colorado. We perform an inverse deconvolution of both CO2 and delta C-13 observations, using a two-dimensional model of atmospheric transport. Also, the discrimination against C-13 by plant photosynthesis, as a function of latitude and time, is calculated from global runs of the simple biosphere (SiB) model. Uncertainty due to the longitudinal structure of the data, which is not represented by the model, is studied through a bootstrap analysis by adding and omitting measurement sites. The resulting error estimates for our inferred sources and sinks are of the order of 1 GTC (1 GTC = 10(exp 15) gC). Such error bars do not reflect potential systematic errors arising from our estimates of the isotopic disequilibria between the atmosphere and the oceans and biosphere, which are estimated in a separate sensitivity analysis. With respect to global totals for 1992 we found that 3.2 GTC of carbon dissolved into the ocean and that 1.5 GTC were sequestered by land ecosystems. Northern hemisphere ocean gyres north of 15 deg N absorbed 2.7 GTC. The equatorial oceans between 10 deg S and 10 deg N were a net source to the atmosphere of 0.9 GTC. We obtained a sink of 1.6 GTC in southern ocean gyres south of 20 deg S, although the deconvolution is poorly constrained by sparse data coverage at high southern latitudes. The seasonal uptake of CO2 in the northern gyres appears to be correlated with a bloom of phytoplankton in surface waters. On land, northern temperate and boreal ecosystems between 35 deg N and 65 deg N were found to be a major sink of CO2 in 1992, as large as 3.5 GTC. Northern tropical ecosystems (equator-30 deg N) appear to be a net source to the source to the atmosphere of 2 GTC which could reflect biomass burning. A small sink, 0.3 GTC, was inferred for southern tropical ecosystems (30 deg S-equator).

Description: Global sets of surface radiation budget (SRB) have been obtained from satellite programs. These satellite-based estimates need validation with ground-truth observations. This study validates the estimates of monthly mean surface insolation contained in two satellite-based SRB datasets with the surface measurements made at worldwide radiation stations from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA). One dataset was developed from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) using the algorithm of Li et al. (ERBE/SRB), and the other from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) using the algorithm of Pinker and Laszlo and that of Staylor (GEWEX/SRB). Since the ERBE/SRB data contain the surface net solar radiation only, the values of surface insolation were derived by making use of the surface albedo data contained GEWEX/SRB product. The resulting surface insolation has a bias error near zero and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) between 8 and 28 W/sq m. The RMSE is mainly associated with poor representation of surface observations within a grid cell. When the number of surface observations are sufficient, the random error is estimated to be about 5 W/sq m with present satellite-based estimates. In addition to demonstrating the strength of the retrieving method, the small random error demonstrates how well the ERBE derives from the monthly mean fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). A larger scatter is found for the comparison of transmissivity than for that of insolation. Month to month comparison of insolation reveals a weak seasonal trend in bias error with an amplitude of about 3 W/sq m. As for the insolation data from the GEWEX/SRB, larger bias errors of 5-10 W/sq m are evident with stronger seasonal trends and almost identical RMSEs.

Description: The topology of the magnetic field in the heliosheath is illustrated using plots of the field lines. It is shown that the Archimedean spiral inside the terminal shock is rotated back in the heliosheath into nested spirals that are advected in the direction of the interstellar wind. The 22-year solar magnetic cycle is imprinted onto these field lines in the form of unipolar magnetic envelopes surrounded by volumes of strongly mixed polarity. Each envelope is defined by the changing tilt of the heliospheric current sheet, which is in turn defined by the boundary of unipolar high-latitude regions on the Sun that shrink to the pole at solar maximum and expand to the equator at solar minimum. The detailed shape of the envelopes is regulated by the solar wind velocity structure in the heliosheath.

Description: Participants in this workshop, which convened in Venice, Italy, 6-8 May 1993, met to consider the current state of climate monitoring programs and instrumentation for the purpose of climatological prediction on short-term (seasonal to interannual) timescales. Data quality and coverage requirements for definition of oceanographic heat and momentum fluxes, scales of inter- and intra-annual variability, and land-ocean-atmosphere exchange processes were examined. Advantages and disadvantages of earth-based and spaceborne monitoring systems were considered, as were the structures for future monitoring networks, research programs, and modeling studies.

Description: The work described here makes it possible to identify anomalous wind behavior such as the nighttime meridional wind abatements that occur at F-region heights. A new analysis technique uses a simple empirical wind model to simulate measurements of 'normal' winds (as measured by the Neutral Atmosphere and Temperature Experiment (NATE) that flew on the Atmosphere Explorer-E (AE-E)) to highlight anomalous wind measurements made by the satellite while in circular orbits at 270-290 km altitude. Our approach is based on the recognition that the 'in orbit' wind variation must show the combined effects of the diurnal wind variation as seen from the ground with the latitude variation of the satellite orbit. For the data period 77250-78035 examined thus far, the wind abatement always occurred with a corresponding pressure or temperature maximum, and was detected on 12 out of the 36 nights with data. This study has revealed that the wind abatement occur only during or shortly after increases in solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) flux, as indicated by daily radio flux measurements. In the past, nighttime wind reversals at mid-latitudes have been associated with increased geomagnetic activity. This study indicates that intensified solar EUV heating may be responsible for anomalous thermospheric nighttime winds at mid-latitudes.

Description: SN 1987A hard X-ray continuum spectra obtained on 1987 October 29, 1988 April 9-10, and 1988 November 11 from balloon-flight measurments are presented. The spectra, spanning the energy range from 25 keV to 300 keV, have been analyzed using a detector response matrix inversion technique that converts the spectra form counts/s/sq cm keV to photons/s/sq cm keV allowing direct comparison with theoretical models. The results indicate that the bulk of the (56)Co is mixed moderately through the inner regions of the supernova envelope but they do not preclude the mixing of a small amount of the (56)Co farther out into the envelope necessary to account for the observed (56)Co line fluxes. The effect of the ratio (57)Co to (56)Co on the 1988 November 11 continuum spectrum is discussed.

Description: The UV line profile structure of high-ionization resonance lines found with the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) in the brightest of four multiply imaged sources (images-A) in the candidate gravitational lens UM 425 = QSO 1120+019 indicates broad absorption line (BAL) structure. The deep-broad trough associated with the O IV line extends to velocities approiximately -12,000 km/s, and contains disrete features that suggest multicomponent velocity structure. This structure may include contributions from C IV absorption from the early-type galaxy that is believed to lens UM 425. A strong absorption feature in the blue wing of the Lyman-alpha lambda 1216 emission line may be a Lyman alpha absorption system at a Z(sub Ly alpha) = 1.437 +/- 0.003, or it may be formed by the superposition of the broad N V lambda lambda 1238, 1242 absorption trough on the extended blue emission wing of the QSO Lyman-alpha line. We obtained a redshift of Z(sub QSO) = 1.471 +/- 0.003 from Lyman-alpha lambda 1215, consistent with the redshift found by Meylan and Djorgovski in the optical. The Lyman-alpha line appears unusally weak due to the presence of N V lambda 1240 BAL absorption. A Lyman-limit absorption system at lambda 912 was not observed in the QSO rest frame. The detection of BAL structure in the other weaker ground-state resonance lines of N II (l) and S IV (l) was not found, suggesting these lines are formed in a region that is distinct from the BAL component. Detection of BAL structure in the other fainter images in this system with Hubble Space Telescope (HST) instrumentation, similar to structure observed here in image A, could provide evidence that UM 425 is a gravitational lens.

Description: We investigate the physical basis for the timescale of impulsive-phase, redshifted Lyman-alpha emission in stellar flares on the assumption that it is determined by energy losses in a nonthermal proton beam that is penetrating the chromosphere from above. The temporal evolution of ionization and heating in representative model chromospheres subjected to such beams is calculated. The treatment of 'stopping' of beam protons takes into account their interactions with (1) electrons bound in neutral hydrogen, (2) nuclei of neutral hydrogen, (3) free electrons, and (4) ambient thermal protons. We find that, for constant incident beam flux, the system attains an equilibrium with the beam energy input to the chromosphere balanced by radiative losses. In equilibrium, the beam penetration depth is constant, and erosion of the chromosphere ceases. If the redshifted, impulsive-phase stellar flare Lyman-alpha emission is produced by downstreaming hydrogen formed through charge exchange between beam protons and ambient hydrogen, then the emission should end when the beam no longer reaches neutral hydrogen. The durations of representative emission events calculated on this assumption range from 0.1 to 14 s. The stronger the beam, the shorter the timescale over which the redshifted Lyman-alpha emission can be observed.

Description: An automated scheme to characterize precipitation echoes within small windows in the radar field is presented and applied to previously subjectively classified tropical rain cloud systems near Darwin, Australia. The classification parameters are (a) E(sub e), effective efficiency, as determined by cloud-top and cloud-base water vapor saturation mixing ratios; (b) BBF, brightband fraction, as determined by the fraction of the radar echo area in which the maximal reflectivity occurs within +/- 1.5 km of the 0 C isotherm level; and (c) del(sub r) Z, radial reflectivity gradients (dB/km). These classification criteria were applied to tropical rain cloud systems near Darwin, Australia, and to winter convective rain cloud systems in Israel. Both sets of measurements were made with nearly identical networks of C-band radars and rain gauge networks. The results of the application of these objective classification criteria to several independently predetermined rain regimes in Darwin have shown that better organized rain systems have smaller del(sub r) Z and larger BBF. Similarly, smaller del(sub r)Z and larger BBF were also observed from maritime rain cloud systems, as compared to continental rain cloud systems with the same degree of organization. Continental rain cloud system, regardless of their degree of organization, have larger depths, as expressed by E(sub e). The rainfall analyses presented in this study are based exclusively on rain gauge measurements, while radar information was used only to classify the individual gauge measurements.

Description: Through analysis of available optical spectrophotometric data and radio flux density measurements in the literature, it is demonstrated that a good correlation exists between the radio power and bolometric luminosity of the optically-selected OSOs in the Bright Quasar Sample (BOS) of Schmidt and Green (1983). We have recently used VLBI measurements of a sample of ultraluminous infrared galaxies to infer the likely existence of radio-quiet Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) deeply enshrouded in dust within their nuclei (Lonsdale, Smith, and Lonsdale 1993). We employ the radio-bolometric luminosity correlation for the BQS quasars to test whether these hypothetical buried AGNs can be energetically responsible for the observed far-infrared luminosities of the ultraluminous infrared galaxies. The ultraluminous infrared galaxies are shown to follow the same relation between radio core power and bolometric luminosity as the radio-quiet QSOs, suggesting that buried AGNs can account for essentially all the observed infrared luminosity, and raising the possibility that any starburst which may be in progress may not be energetically dominant. The broader implications of the radio-optical correlation in quasars for AGNs and luminous infrared galaxy models and the use of radio astronomy as a probe of the central powerhouse in radio quiet AGNs and luminous infrared galaxies are briefly discussed.

Description: The proposed design and construction of the Fizeau astrometric mapping explorer (FAME), a small astrometric instrument for use on an artificial satellite, is reported on. The instrument and spacecraft are designed to slowly spin and will repeatedly scan great circles on the sky so that, over a period of time, it will cover the complete sky and repeat in a manner similar to that of the Hipparcos satellite. The instrument will use the two fixed dilute aperture telescopes to measure a fixed angle between stars and detect the positions, magnitude and color of all stars crossing its field of view to a visual magnitude of approximately 15 mag. The aim of the instrument is to obtain a catalog of positions, proper motions and parallaxes of all stars down to about 15 mag, with a magnitude dependent accuracy of positions of 20 to 800 micro arcsec, proper motions of 20 to 800 micro arcsec per year and parallaxes of 20 to 800 micro arcsec.

Description: The concepts related to the operation and design of the global astrometric interferometer for astrophysics (GAIA) bring together solutions chosen for the astrometry satellite and interferometric techniques. Like the Hipparcos satellite, GAIA is a continuously scanning instrument for which the integration time on any observed object is limited by the field of view of the detector. If a final astrometric accuracy of 10 microarcsec is aimed at, a field of 1 deg in diameter is needed. A design is presented for the proposed 2.6 m baseline Fizeau interferometer with two 40 cm apertures and overall dimensions compatible with the size of the Ariane 5 payload shroud. It has a 0.9 deg diffraction limited field of view. The response of the optical system to small perturbations on each optical element is given in terms of the fringe visibility, which is shown to be dependent on the sub-aperture spot separation. The robustness of the design to thermal, mechanical and manufacturing errors is discussed. The unavoidable distortion present in wide field optical systems is analyzed in terms of displacement of the interference fringes.

Description: A direct link to an extragalactic reference system is considered as being a principle aim of the global astrometric interferometer for astrophysics (GAIA) mission. The data available from an extragalactic data base and a quasi stellar object (QSO) catalog were used to obtain an estimation of the number of QSO link candidates. The quality of presently available data and the expected accuracy of the extragalactic link are discussed. It is concluded that at least 150 QSO's must be observed by GAIA in order to guarantee an accuracy of better than 1 microarcsec/year for the link. New observations will be needed before the GAIA launch in order to reduce uncertainties in the positions, magnitudes and redshifts for some known quasars. The variability of QSO's with magnitudes near the GAIA observation limit can raise a potential problem. The motions of nearby QSO's are expected to be much smaller than 2 microarcsec/year, and therefore, will not affect the accuracy of the link in the proposed GAIA mission.

Description: We report on large-scale ab initio multiconfiguration Hartree-Fock calculations for the UV0.01 multiplet, 2s(sup 2)2p(sup 2)P(sub J) - 2s2p(sup 2 4)P(sub J prime), in N III. The resulting transition probabilities agree very well with recent semiempirical calculations, and the lifetimes for two of the three upper levels agree with experiments. The deviation for the third level is discussed. Comparisons made with the highest quality IUE echelle spectra available -- those of RR Tel and V1016 Cyg (both photoionized sources with electron densities below 10(exp 8)/cu cm) -- show that computed branching ratios of lines sharing a common upper level are in agreement with observations to within uncertainties of +/- 10%. High-quality solar limb data or stellar data from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) could, in principle, be used to determine whether the theoretical or measured lifetimes for the discrepant level are in error. Unfortunately, stellar data for high-density plasmas (N(sub e) greater than 10(exp 11)/cu cm are needed) do not yet exist, and existing solar data lack the photometric precision to address this problem.

Description: Thermal drag, a variant of the Yarkovsky effect, may act on small asteroids with sizes from a few meters to a few tens of meters. Yarkovsky thermal drag comes from an asteroid's absorbing sunlight in the visible and reradiating it in the infrared. Since the infrared photons have momentum, by action-reaction, they kick the asteroid when they leave its surface. The reradiation, which is asymmetric in latitude over the asteroid, gives a net force along the asteroid's pole. Due to the asteroid's thermal inertia, averaging this force over one orbital period produces a net drag if the spin axis has a component in the orbital plane. Thermal drag tends to circularize orbits. It can increase or decrease orbital inclinations. An object whose spin axis points in random directions over its lifetime displays little change in orbital inclination. Thermal drag appears to have little to do with the delivery of chondrites from the asteroid belt; the thermal drag timescale (10(exp 8) years for meter-sizzed objects) is long compared with their cosmic ray exposure ages, and aphelia in the asteroid belt are not expected for mature thermal drag orbits. However, Yarkovsky thermal drag may act on the recently discovered near-Earth asteroids, which have radii of 10-30 m. Asteroid 1992 DA, for instance, might have its orbit shrunk by 0.1 AU in 3 x 10(exp 7) years, removing it from an Earth-crossing orbit. The near-Earth asteroids also tend to have small to moderate orbital eccentricities, as expected for highly evolved thermal drag objects. However, the time needed to bring them in from the asteroid belt (about 10(exp 9) years) is long compared with the collisonal and dynamical lifetimes (both about 10(exp 8) years) for Earth-crossing objects, arguing against their emplacement by thermal drag.

Description: High-contrast peaks in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy can appear as unresolved sources to observers. We fit simluated CMB maps generated with a cold dark matter model to a set of unresolved features at instrumental resolution 0.5 deg-1.5 deg to derive the integral number density per steradian n (greater than absolute value of T) of features brighter than threshold temperature absolute value of T and compare the results to recent experiments. A typical medium-scale experiment observing 0.001 sr at 0.5 deg resolution would expect to observe one feature brighter than 85 micro-K after convolution with the beam profile, with less than 5% probability to observe a source brighter than 150 micro-K. Increasing the power-law index of primordial density perturbations n from 1 to 1.5 raises these temperature limits absolute value of T by a factor of 2. The MSAM features are in agreement with standard cold dark matter models and are not necessarily evidence for processes beyond the standard model.

Description: We have simulated full-sky maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy expected from cold dark matter (CDM) models at 0.5 deg and 1.0 deg angular resolution. Statistical properties of the maps are presented as a function of sky coverage, angular resolution, and instrument noise, and the implications of these results for observability of the Doppler peak are discussed. The rms fluctuations in a map are not a particularly robust probe of the existence of a Doppler peak; however, a full correlation analysis can provide reasonable sensitivity. We find that sensitivity to the Doppler peak depends primarily on the fraction of sky covered, and only secondarily on the angular resolution and noise level. Color plates of the simulated maps are presented to illustrate the anisotropies.

Description: Results of a simulation study on the effects of optically thick stratospheric sulfate aerosol layers on the backscattered ultraviolet radiation (buv) in the range 256-340 nm are presented. In general, the increased Mie scattering produced by the aerosols results in an enhancement of the buv radiation. The increase is approximately linear with optical depth and strongly depends on solar zenith angle and aerosol layer altitude in relation to the ozone maximum. The effect is greatest at those wavelenghts whose contribution functions peak in the vicinity of the densest part of the aerosol layer. The aerosol induced perturbation of the buv field affects the ozone profile retrieval from space measurements by the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Experiment (SBUV) experiment. In the tropical stratosphere, the retrieved ozone between 25 and 45 km is underestimated as a result of increased Mie scattering. On the other hand, an algorithm related effect causes the retrieved ozone below 25 km to be overestimated by an amount similar to the stratospheric deficit.

Description: Soft gamma repeaters are characterized by recurrent activity consisting of short-duration outbursts of high-energy emission that is typically of temperature less than 40 keV. One recent model of repeaters is that they originate in the environs of neutron stars with superstrong magnetic fields, perhaps greater than 10(exp 14) G. In such fields, the exotic process of magnetic photon splitting gamma yields gamma gamma acts very effectively to reprocess gamma-ray radiation down to hard X-ray energies. In this Letter, the action of photon splitting is considered in some detail, via the solution of photon kinetic equations, determining how it limits the hardness of emission in strongly magnetized repeaters, and thereby obtaining observational constraints to the field in SGR 1806-20.

Description: The COMPTEL sky map of the 1.8 MeV line emission from Al-26 shows an extended diffuse distribution along the Galactic plane with a peculiar large scale asymmetry about the Galactic center (GC) and a clumpy structure with several noticeable hot spots. The most prominent hot spot at the GC appears shifted to positive longitude by about 2 deg. Nearby supernova remnants or Wolf-Rayet stars are plausible explanations for individual hot spots such as in the Vela region. We show that the global asymmetry and most hot spots can be understood by a more general model: the Al-26 sources are confined in the spiral arms of our Galaxy, and coagent star formation is responsible for additional clumpiness. The off-centered GC hot spot is probably due to the observed asymmetrically distributed circumnuclear molecular gas interacting with a central stellar bar, whose existence has been inferred from IR observations.

Description: Application of the window probability matching method to radar and rain gauge data that have been objectively classified into different rain types resulted in distinctly different Z(sub e)-R relationships for the various classifications. These classification parameters, in addition to the range from the radar, are (a) the horizontal radial reflectivity gradients (dB/km); (b) the cloud depth, as scaled by the effective efficiency; (c) the brightband fraction within the radar field window; and (d) the height of the freezing level. Combining physical parameters to identify the type of precipitation and statistical relations most appropriate to the precipitation types results in considerable improvement of both point and areal rainfall measurements. A limiting factor in the assessment of the improved accuracy is the inherent variance between the true rain intensity at the radar measured volume and the rain intensity at the mouth of the rain guage. Therefore, a very dense rain gauge network is required to validate most of the suggested realized improvement. A rather small sample size is required to achieve a stable Z(sub e)-R relationship (standard deviation of 15% of R for a given Z(sub e)) -- about 200 mm of rainfall accumulated in all guages combined for each classification.

Description: The specific objectives of this experiment are to establish the population and size distribution of meteoroids in the mass range from 10 to the minus 10 power to 10 to the minus 4 power G, to establish the current population of man-made debris in the same mass range, and to obtain data on the physical properties (composition and density) of meteoroids.

Description: The objective of this experiment is to study interplanetary dust, variously referred to as cosmic dust, cometary dust, zodiacial dust, or meteoric dust particles. Specific objectives are to obtain information regarding particle mass and velocity, and to undertake correlative analyses with other experiments, both on LDEF or near the time of the LDEF flight.

Description: The primary objective of this experiment is to investigate the feasibility of future missions of multilayer thin-film detectors acting as energy sorter to collect micrometeoroids, if not in their original shape, at least as fragments suitable for chemical analysis. It is expected that this kind of particle collector will help in solving one of the most puzzling topics in cosmic-dust studies: the mineralogical and chemical composition of the particles. This is a matter of great interest in the study of the origin and evolution of the solar system.

Description: The joint airport weather studies (JAWS) project is discussed. The major objectives of the JAWS Project are a fundamental description of the phenomenon, a determination of the hazard potential and a definition of a protection and warning system, all of which are relative to low level wind shear. Aspects of the low level wind shear phenomenon. The principal focus, however, is the microburst. The microburst is fundamentally a rather simple atmospheric flow. It is a downdraft that, upon approaching the surface, spreads out horizontally, producing a diverging radial flow in all directions. For any direction that an aircraft flies through the microburst, it will first encounter increasing head winds; then the remnants of the downdraft; and then, increasing tail wind.

Description: A heavily instrumented F-106B aircraft was flown in thunderstorms to gather data for characterizing lightning at aircraft operating altitudes. Conventional weather finding techniques are supplemented with UHF lightning mapping radar to select the most active storm cells and the most likely altitude for obtaining direct lightning strikes to the airplane. One hundred seventy-six strikes were obtained in a 3 year period, mostly at an altitude of above 25,000 feet.

Description: A wind shear and vortex wake and their impact on aircraft were investigated. The systems and advice to help pilots, and rational scientific methods to assist in advising certification authorities and those interested in improving flight safety were developed. Wind Shear and Vortex Wakes are related, they are both invisible enemies of aircraft in the form of large disturbances in the atmosphere, both cause major accidents. Problems of building wakes at airports are is considered. Research on wind shear was initiated by the American FAA following the Boston, New York and Denver accidents to civil airliners. This resulted in: useful advice to pilots about wind shear; better attempts by the meteorologists at forecasting wind shear conditions; and useful ideas for wind shear measurement and warning systems. Three major research tasks are outstanding: (1) Worldwide measurements to give reliable estimates of probability and details of the forms of large wind shears; (2) Developments of real time wind shear measuring systems for ground or airborne use; and (3) Establishing relationships between measured wind shear and the potential hazard to an aircraft, or class of aircraft.

Description: Marked surface inversions occur most frequently in dry continental climates, where low atmospheric humidity allows heat transfer by long wave thermal radiation. In the northern latitudes, surface inversions reach their maximum intensity during the winter, when the incoming Sun's radiation is negligible and radiative cooling is dominant during the long nights. During winter, air mass boundaries are sharp, which causes formation of marked surface inversions. The existence of these inversions and sharp boundaries increase the risk of wind shear. The information should refer to marked inversions exceeding a temperature difference of 10 deg C up to 1000 feet. The need to determine the temperature range over which he information is operationally needed and the magnitude of the inversion required before a notification to pilots prior to departure is warranted are outlined.

Description: The Gust Gradient Program is a data intensive effort involving tripple Doppler radar, a surface weather station mesonet and other aircraft. The Joint Airport Weather Studies was utilized to gain additional data. The data were used to fill in the gap in turbulence modeling.

Description: The objective of the Generalized Exponential Markov (GEM) Program was to develop a weather forecast guidance system that would: predict between 0 to 6 hours all elements in the airways observations; respond instantly to the latest observed conditions of the surface weather; process these observations at local sites on minicomputing equipment; exceed the accuracy of current persistence predictions at the shortest prediction of one hour and beyond; exceed the accuracy of current forecast model output statistics inside eight hours; and be capable of making predictions at one location for all locations where weather information is available.

Description: Recommendations based on need, cost, and achievement of flight safety are offered, and the re-evaluation of weather parameters needed for safe landing operations that lead to reliable and consistent automated observation capabilities are considered.

Description: The primary responsibilities of the National Weather Service (NWS) are to: provide warnings of severe weather and flooding for the protection of life and property; provide public forecasts for land and adjacent ocean areas for planning and operation; and provide weather support for: production of food and fiber; management of water resources; production, distribution and use of energy; and efficient and safe air operations.

Description: The implementation of the National Airspace System (NAS) will improve safety services to aviation. These services include collision avoidance, improved landing systems and better weather data acquisition and dissemination. The program to improve the quality of weather information includes the following: Radar Remote Weather Display System; Flight Service Automation System; Automatic Weather Observation System; Center Weather Processor, and Next Generation Weather Radar Development.

Description: Rainfall characteristics using data from dense recording raingage networks is reviewed. Data from such networks have quantified temporal and spatial rainfall distributions, and have supplied specialized information about local and orographic effects. The natural variability, temporally and spatially, for annual, seasonal, monthly, and individual events is treated. Especially important are the spatial variations of precipitation as a function of synoptic type, precipitation type, amount, and duration. Results from dense raingage networks in Illinois, and some data from other climatic regions is also treated.

Description: A 10 channel scanning radiometer, built as a prototype for the coastal zone color scanner on the Nimbus 7 satellite, was flown on a high altitude aircraft during a Gymnodium breve bloom along the west coast of Florida. The remotely measured ocean color imagery shows what is probably the patchy structure of a G. breve bloom extending over a 60 km by 100 km area. This conclusion is based on visual inspection of bathymetry to infer bottom reflection trends and on a single growth truth measurement of B G. breve obtained the previous day. The image shows coherent blooms which extend scales up to 60 km in length.

Description: The snowmelt-runoff model developed for two small central European watersheds simulate daily streamflow on the 228 sq km Dinwoody Creek basin in Wyoming, using snowcover extent for LANDSAT and conventionally measured temperature and precipitation. For the six-month snowmelt seasons of 1976 and 1974, the simulated seasonal runoff volumes were within 5 and 1%, respectively, of the measured runoff. Also the daily fluctuations of discharge were simulated to a high degree by the model. Thus far the limiting basin size for applying the model has not been reached, and improvements can be expected if the hydrometeorological data can be obtained from a station inside the basin. LANDSAT provides an efficient way to obtain the critical snowcover input parameter required by the model.

Description: A large scale numerical time-dependent model of sea ice that takes into account the heat fluxes in and out of the ice, the seasonal occurrence of snow, and ice motions was used in an experiment to determine the response of the Arctic Ocean ice pack to a warming of the atmosphere. The degree of warming specified is that expected for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide with its associated greenhouse effect, a condition that could occur before the middle of the next century. The results of three 5-year simulations with a warmer atmosphere and varied boundary conditions were: (1) that in the face of a 5 K surface atmospheric temperature increase the ice pack disappeared completely in August and September but reformed in the central Arctic Ocean in mid fall; (2) that the simulations were moderately dependence on assumptions concerning cloud cover; and (3) that even when atmospheric temperature increases of 6-9 K were combined with an order-of-magnitude increase in the upward heat flux from the ocean, the ice still appeared in winter. It should be noted that a year-round ice-free Arctic Ocean has apparently not existed for a million years or more.

Description: During the summer of 1977, fire totaled 44 sq km of tundra vegetation according to measurements using LANDSAT imagery. Based on the experience gained from analysis of this fire using ground observations, satellite imagery, and topographic maps, it appears that natural drainages form effective fire breaks on the subdued relief of the Arctic coastal plain and northern foothills. It is confirmed that the intensity of the fire is related to vegetation type and to the moisture content of the organic rich soils.

Description: The geostationary and polar satellites comprising the current operational system are discussed. The data acquisition capabilities of both satellite types and their complementary functions are reviewed. The advanced very high resolution radiometer on the TIROS N satellites is particularly addressed along with the imaging and atmospheric sounding instrumentation aboard the GOES satellites. The dissemination of the satellite data to the prospective users is also discussed.

Description: Snow accumulation and depletion at specific locations can be monitored from space by observing related variations in microwave brightness temperatures. Using vertically and horizontally polarized brightness temperatures from the Nimbus 6 electrically scanning microwave radiometer, a discriminant function can be used to separate snow from no snow areas and map snowcovered area on a continental basis. For dry snow conditions on the Canadian high plains, significant relationships between snow depth or water equivalent and microwave brightness temperature were developed which could permit remote determination of these snow properties after acquisition of a wider range of data. The presence of melt water in the snowpack causes a marked increase in brightness temperature which can be used to predict snowpack priming and timing of runoff. As the resolutions of satellite microwave sensors improve the application of these results to snow hydrology problems should increase.

Description: Methods using snowcovered area to update seasonal forecasts as snowmelt progresses are also being used in quasi-operational situations. The input of snowcovered area to snowmelt models for short term perdictions was attempted in two ways; namely, the modification of existing hydrologic models and/or the use of models that were specifically designed to use snowcovered area. A daily snowmelt runoff model was used with LANDSAT data to simulate discharge on remote basins in the Wind River Mountains of Wyoming. Daily predicted and actual flows compare closely, and, summarized over the entire snowmelt season (April 1 - September 30), the average difference is only three percent. The model and snowcovered area data are currently being tested on additional watersheds to determine the method's transferability.

Description: Presumably caused by lightning, a large fire occurred due east of Point Lay several kilometers southwest of the Kokolik River, the farthest north a fire was ever fought by Bureau of Land Management personnel in Alaska. The progress and area extent of the fire were determined by analysis of LANDSAT MSS band 5 and 7 imagery. Low altitude observations from helicopter showed the fire burned a range of vegetation and relief types which included low polygonized and upland tussock tundras. The burned area appeared wetter on the surface than the unburned area, due to a lack of moisture absorbing organic matter and the possible release of moisture from the deeper thawed zone. Suggestions for future investigations of the effects of fire on tundra and permafrost terrains are discussed.

Description: Programs for the development and operation of meteorological satellites from the TIROS 1 satellite and the establishment of NASA through the 1960's are described. The technical problems confronted in the development of the early satellite systems are discussed in addition to issues in international involvement and program support. The TIROS and Nimbus series satellites are primarily addressed.

Description: By using the most complete available records of direct beam radiation and volcanic eruptions, an historical analysis of the role of the latter in modulating the former was made. A very simple fallout and dispersion model was applied to the historical chronology of explosive eruptions. The resulting time series explains about 77 percent of the radiation variance, as well as suggests that tropical and subpolar eruptions are more important than mid-latitude eruptions in their impact on the stratospheric aerosol optical depth. The simpler climatic models indicate that past hemispheric temperature can be stimulated very well with volcanic and CO2 inputs and suggest that climate forecasting will also require volcano forecasting. There is some evidence that this is possible some years in advance.

Description: Visible and infrared pictures from two Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Systems satellites, in circular orbits at about 19,000 nautical miles, are available continuously at approximately 30 minute intervals. Still pictures and film loops from this system vividly depict the events associated with the May 18, 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens. The initial explosion, shock wave, and visible horizontal dust distribution during the following week are readily apparent. Meteorological wind and height fields permit the inference of the vertical distribution of volcanic dust as well as explain the atmospheric behavior which caused the visible and nonvisible dust distribution.

Description: Examples of the use of geostationary satellites in meteorology are given. Studies of the rate of change of cumulus clouds and cloud systems and wind parameter determination from cloud motions are reviewed. Computer processed imagery products are also discussed.

Description: The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program is described with particular emphasis on the military applications of METSAT data. Satellite operational support, data processing and image quality requirements are discussed.

Description: A historical overview of the pioneer projects for the development of meteorological satellites is given. In addition, the parallel development of the responsible space agencies and panels is addressed. The Vanguard 2 satellite, the first Earth radiation experiment, and the vidicon equipped TIROS-1 satellite are discussed.

Description: A brief review of the effects of climate and weather on the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruptions and the subsequent dispersion of ash and gases and the reciprocal influences of the eruptions on climate and climatology is presented. The effects of mesoscale destruction of snow fields and vegetation, a revised mountain profile, and ash deposits are addressed along with impacts on hemispheric climate and disruption of normal climatological observations, in the areas directly affected by the explosions and ashfall. Environmental and economic consequences are also considered.

Description: As a user of devices and procedures for lightning protection, the author is asking the lightning research community for cookbook recipes to help him solve his problems. He is lamenting that realistic devices are scarce and that his mission does not allow him the time nor the wherewithal to bridge the gap between research and applications. A few case histories are presented. In return for their help he is offering researchers a key to lightning technology--the use of the Eastern Test Range and its extensive resources as a proving ground for their experiment in the lightning capital of the United States. A current example is given--a joint lightning characterization project to take place there. Typical resources are listed.

Description: Geographic coverage frequency and geographic shot density for a satellite borne Doppler lidar wind velocity measuring system are measured. The equations of motion of the light path on the ground were derived and a computer program devised to compute shot density and coverage frequency by latitude-longitude sections. The equations for the coverage boundaries were derived and a computer program developed to plot these boundaries, thus making it possible, after an application of a map coloring algorithm, to actually see the areas of multiple coverage. A theoretical cross-swath shot density function that gives close approximations in certain cases was also derived. This information should aid in the design of an efficient data-processing system for the Doppler lidar.

Description: A block diagram of the joint airport weather studies program is presented. Background leading to the development of the program is reviewed. Basic studies, aircraft performance, and detection and warning techniques used to develop fine scale structure of thunderstorm dynamics and kinematics in the vicinity of a major airport; effect of thunderstorm low level wind shear on aircraft performance; and development of real time testing of flow level wind shear detection and warning techniques and displays are described.

Description: The prototype regional observation and forecast system (PROFS) outputs are demonstrated, functional design specifications to be used to procure and implement operational systems are outlined. Advanced candidate technologies are evaluated as an integral part of the process that leads to these outputs. Evaluation insures that future weather service systems will contain the optimum mix of technologies to be most cost effective in reducing the annual losses and deaths that are directly attributed to severe weather.

Description: The icing environment at altitudes below 10,000 feet were studied. The following questions are asked, are: (1) existing aircraft certification criteria applicable; (2) too stringent on icing for helos; (3) based on accurate data; (4) appropriate for low (10,000 ft) altitudes? The research plan is outlined: review historical icing data, obtain new measurements, collect modern icing data from other groups, and recommend LWC, OAT, and MVD criteria for helicopters. Estimated accuracies and known sources of error are included. It is concluded that the net effect of possible sources of error of both signs is uncertain.

Description: Some operational and experimental products developed for aviation weather forecasting are briefly described. Experimental products include surface dew point, obstructions to vision, boundary layer model, computer-worded terminal forecasts, terminal alerting procedure, generalized equivalent Markov, and radar forecasts (0-2 hours).

Description: Doppler radar measurements of an intense wind shear occurance are discussed. The data suggest the presence of an incredibly strong low level jet outflow component of the microburst event, reaching 60 knots only 50 meters above the surface. Evidence also suggests that microbursts more typically occur in very weak thunderstorms that have hardly reached thunderstorm stage.

Description: The phenomenology of one class of strong thunderstorm downdrafts, microbursts, is described. Several aircraft accidents are analyzed in which a microburst was involved and a concept for an early warning wind shear sensor is presented.

Description: A method to improve clear air turbulence (CAT) forecasting by more effectively using the currently operational rawinsonde (RW) system is discussed. The method is called the Diagnostic Richardson Number Tendency (DRT) technique. The technique does not attempt to use the RW as a direct detector of the turbulent motion or even of the CAT mechanism structure but rather senses the synoptic scale centers of action which provide the energy to the CAT mechanism at the mesoscale level. The DRT algorithm is deterministic rather than statistical in nature, using the hydrodynamic equations (equations of motion) relevant to the synoptic scale. However, interpretation, by necessity, is probabilistic. What is most important with respect to its operational implementation is that this method uses the same input data as currently used by the operational National Meteorological Center prognostic models.

Description: A clear air turbulence (CAT) flight test to evaluate and test four different sensors in the detection and measuring of CAT and other meteorological targets that relate to turbulence is discussed. The primary types of CAT investigated were mountain wave CAT, jetstream CAT, CAT in cirrus clouds, and CAT in frontal wind shears, troughs, and ridges. The sensors included the CO2 pulsed Doppler lidar and three radiometers. One of the radiometers, at a frequency of 55.5 GHz, looked at atmospheric temperature structure. Another, at a frequency of 180.1 GHz, looked at atmospheric water vapor and investigated the feasibility of measuring at the microwave frequency the turbulence features seen in the infrared (IR) frequencies. An IR radiometer at 27 to 33 microns was the fourth sensor. This last device and the temperature structure radiometer worked well at all flight levels.

Description: The development of methods for the short range forecasting of visibility and ceiling conditions is discussed. Short range forecasts of one hour or less (5 or 30 minutes), immediately after a series of local observations can be expected to be more accurate and reliable than any forecast of more than one hour. These forecasts can be accomplished by the operational implementation of fully automated aviation observation systems and the utilization of statistical techniques such as the Generalized Equivalent Markov model.

Description: Requirements for an improved aviation weather system are defined and specifically include the need for (1) weather observations at all airports with instrument approaches, (2) more accurate and timely radar detection of weather elements hazardous to aviation, and (3) better methods of timely distribution of both pilot reports and ground weather data. The development of the discrete address beacon system data link, Doppler weather radar network, and various information processing techniques are described.

Description: The operational designs and performance capabilities of ground-based and airborne lightning detection systems are reviewed. The airborne Stormscope system is described and compared with onboard radar and the lightning detection and ranging system (LDAR). Two examples of difference-in-time-of-arrival systems for detecting spherics from discharges in electrified clouds are described: (1) The LDAR system and (2) Taylor's lightning mapping system. Next, an interferometric system adapted to lightning location is discussed. Finally, systems that are based upon crossed-loop magnetic direction finding principles but which have been refined and improved to accurately locate lightning discharges to ground are reviewed.

Description: The phenomenology of lightning and lightning measurement techniques are briefly examined with a particular reference to aeronautics. Developments made in airborne and satellite detection methods are reported. NASA research efforts are outlined which cover topics including in-situ measurements, design factors and protection, remote optical and radio frequency measurements, and space vehicle design.

Description: The ability of various types of remote probes to measure wind is discussed. Two important advantages over in-situ sensors are reported: (1) their ability to measure atmospheric parameters without disturbing the air flow; (2) their ability to scan through large volumes of the atmosphere with relative ease. Direct measurement sensors such as anemometers and wind vanes are categorized into two groups; active and passive. Acoustic radar, microwave radar, and lidar are included in the first group and the latter group is typified by the infrared radiometers.

Description: The problem of development of instrumentation for providing wind speed and direction information directly or indirectly to a pilot in the cockpit is considered. The pilots need for horizontal wind information at various stages of flight (i.e., at liftoff, in approach and departure corridors, and even in flight outside the terminal area) are emphasized.

Description: The basic reference material for gust design criteria are cited. The status of clear air turbulence meteorology (forecasting and detection) is discussed. The directions of further research technology is indicated.

Description: A list of icing instrumentation requirements are presented. Because of the Army's helicopter orientation, many of the suggestions are specific to rotary wing aircraft; however, some of the instrumentation are also suitable for general aviation aircraft.

Description: The types and usage categories of icing instrumentation are discussed. The state-of-the-art for the technology governing the use of icing instrumentation is reported with particular emphasis on ground based facilities for icing tests.

Description: The measurement of atmospheric turbulence is discussed in terms of a pilots viewpoint. Two areas of measurement are considered: frequency and severity of turbulence. Suggestions are given for helping the pilot solve the turbulence problem.

Description: An overview is given of the developmental status of aviation weather services. Particular attention is given to justifying the need for better, more reliable service. The accomplishments of several automatic weather stations are discussed.

Description: The dynamic and rapid growth of technology in the area of aviation meteorology research and development are described with emphasis on the measurement of hazardous weather phenomena. Aspects of both onboard instrumentation and ground based facilities are evaluated in terms of their effectiveness of in avoiding hazards due to atmospheric electricity and lightning. Methods of alleviating terminal are hazards such as fog, low visibility and ceilings are also described.

Description: Various aspects of aviation meteorology are discussed with respect to their relative effects on aircraft terminal operations. Existing data on turbulence and wind shear from aircraft and towers are summarized. The significance of obtaining more real time wind and temperature information is emphasized. The application and testing of various radiometer devices are also described. Airborne methods to indicate wind differences at flight altitude and at touchdown are reported.

Description: Three projects are suggested which could be done using the Doppler lidar. The first is a cooperative effort at BAO, the purpose of which is to check out instrumentation and contribute to boundary layer investigations at BAO. The second concerns unintended weather modification. Its purpose is to detect mechanisms by which regions of industry and urbanization modify weather. The cirrus cloud study proposes to characterize cirrus clouds by their lidar signal and to compare lidar and visually observed characteristics.

Description: General criteria for a flight test option are that: (1) there be a good opportunity for comparison with other measurement techniques; (2) the flow to be measured is of considerable scientific or practical interest; and (3) the airborne laser Doppler system is well suited to measure the required quantities. The requirement for comparison, i.e., ground truth, is particularly important because this is the first year of operation for the system. It is necessary to demonstrate that the system does actually measure the winds and compare the results with other methods to provide a check on the system error analysis. The uniqueness of the laser Doppler system precludes any direct comparison, but point measurements from tower mounted wind sensors and two dimensional fields obtained from radars with substantially different sampling volumes are quite useful.

Description: The experiment strives to improve understanding of the physics of convective precipitation. Major emphasis is placed on obtaining a good description of the whole convective precipitation system. A framework is presented within which single, significant, tractable problems are investigated.

Description: The objectives of the system are to provide the system operator with real time system performance check and to provide data recording of all SSMS data. Meteorologists are provided with real time indication of meteorological data measurements including aid for directing flight profiles in real time and aid for directing SSMS operations. A day-to-day feedback is provided to meteorologists, system operators, and flight crews for flight planning on subsequent flight tests days.

Description: The problem is to operate on two scalar fields to produce a vector field, to produce user products from the vector field, and to establish reliability of results. Data problems encountered include sparse measurements, irregular distribution, varying quality, imperfect orthogonality, aliasing due to sampling volume, and measurements not simultaneous. Desired algorithm characteristics, solution elements, and characteristics of the model are listed. The seven simulation elements, eight algorithm steps and the required user inputs are given.