ALBERT

Notes: Abstract Adsorption refrigerators are a particular type of refrigerator in which compression is avoided, and in a sense replaced by adsorption. No mobile parts are needed; the energy input, instead of being mechanical, is thermal and is used to achieve desorption. Such machines have a cyclic operation, made of successive adsorption/evaporation and of desorption/condensation steps. The transient operation of adsorption refrigerators is a relatively recent subject of research. The modeling of the adsorber is the key point of such studies, because of the complex coupled heat and mass transfer phenomena that occur during the cycle. The present work therefore presents a study of an annular type adsorber which is intended to account for transient temperatures observed experimentally. The equipment in which the experiments were performed and which uses alcohol adsorption on activated carbon is briefly described, and its operating cycle described, along with typical experimental observations of pressure and temperature transients. A model of the adsorber unit is proposed which accounts for the coupling of adsorption and heat transfer, and describes mass-transfer in the annular adsorbent layer as a global diffusional mechanism with temperature dependent parameters. This model correctly predicts, qualitatively and semi-quantitatively, the observed trends of the temperature changes. Finally, various aspects of the performances are discussed.

Notes: Abstract The viability of irrigated systems in the Senegal River Valley is being brought into question today due to their under‐utilization. We assume that their viability depends largely on the way their different components behave and interact. We therefore sought to examine in greater depth today's knowledge of the structure of these systems and activities performed within them. This led to the development of a multi‐agent system model, a kind of virtual irrigated system, with a special focus on rules in use for access to credit, water allocation and cropping season assessment as well as organization and coordination of farmers. The purpose of this paper is to show how this kind of tool is relevant to the study of irrigated systems' viability. As an example it is used to examine the influence of existing social networks on the viability of irrigated systems.

Notes: Abstract This paper studies the impact of a reduction in hardware complexity on the supply-chain inventory against various customer on-time delivery alternatives and manufacturing environments. Different methods of reducing hardware complexity are proposed, and their impact on total supply-chain inventory and customer serviceability quantified. An analytical inventory optimization scheme taking into account multistage supply networks, product structure, forecast accuracy, lead-time variability, and supplier reliability is used to determine optimal inventory levels in a stochastic modeling environment. The analysis is based on a business case for an IBM midrange computer family consisting of more than 200 models and upgrades with hundreds of features. We investigate different hardware complexity reduction strategies, including low-usage feature reduction, low-volume feature reduction, and feature substitution, as well as quick response and postponement mechanisms. Our computational results show that, in a fabrication-fulfillment center environment, reducing hardware complexity results in significantly higher inventory savings than in an integrated manufacturing environment. The results presented in this paper were used to reduce hardware complexity in IBM's midrange computer division.

Notes: Abstract Reaching high selectivities is an important concern for heterogeneous catalysis. Insights in the factors which control the reaction selectivity can be obtained from theoretical approaches, also a full computational description of the reaction is not yet possible, due to the great complexity of the molecules generally involved in fine chemical catalysis. Some theoritical works related to the interpretation of chemical selectivity are rewieved in this paper, with a focus on the various types of selectivity: chemoselectivity, regioselectivity and enantioselectivity.

Notes: Abstract Fossil Trichoptera (caddisfly) remains have been identified and quantitatively recorded in the late-glacial and early-Holocene sediments from Kråkenes Lake, western Norway. The sediment sequence was deposited between 12,300 and 8850 14C BP, covering the Allerød, Younger Dryas, and early-Holocene periods. The first Trichoptera were recorded at 12,000 14C BP, and during the Allerod a diverse assemblage of Limnephilidae taxa developed in the lake. By about 11,400 14C BP the relatively thermophilous Polycentropus flavomaculatus and Limnephilus rhombicus were present, suggesting that the summer water temperature was at least 17 °C. This temperature fell by 5-8 °C at the start of the Younger Dryas, and the thermophilous taxa were replaced within 20-40 14C yrs by Apatania spp., including the arctic-alpine A. zonella, suggesting a maximum summer water temperature of 10-12 °C. The Trichoptera assemblage was impoverished in numbers and in diversity over the next 200 yrs as the severe conditions of the Younger Dryas developed. As soon as temperatures rose and glacial meltwater and silt input ended about 700 14C yrs later, the resident Apatania assemblage expanded immediately, within 10 yrs. About 130 yrs later, thermophilous taxa replaced Apatania, and a much more diverse assemblage than in the Allerod occupied the varied habitats made available by the development of the Holocene lake ecosystem. The 130 yr delay may have been caused by a gradual temperature increase crossing a critical threshold, or by the time taken for thermophilous taxa to migrate from their Younger Dryas refugia.

Notes: Abstract The discussion on climatic instability observed in Greenland ice cores during the Eemian period (substage 5e) resulted in discovery of a pronounced mid-Eemian cooling event. We report that the mid-Eemian cooling is found for the first time in the biogenic silica climatic record and microfossil abundance record of Lake Baikal. Timing of this event in Lake Baikal correlates well with timing of the European pollen records and marine sedimentary records. The presence of the mid-Eemian cooling signal in the Lake Baikal record suggests a much closer link between Asian climate influenced by strong pressure fields over the vast land masses and the climate-controlling processes in the North Atlantic during interglacial periods, than what was generally believed. Furthermore, the Lake Baikal record suggests that after the mid-Eemian cooling, the climatic conditions returned close to the warmth of the 5e optimum and thus argues that the warm conditions of the last interglacial persisted in Siberia throughout 5e, and did not end with the mid-Eemian cooling as suggested by several published marine records.

Notes: Abstract Although paleoclimatic research in the Arctic has most often focused on variations in temperature, the Arctic has also experienced changes in hydrologic balance. Changes in Arctic precipitation and evaporation rates affects soils, permafrost, lakes, wetlands, rivers, ice and vegetation. Changes in Arctic soils, permafrost, runoff, and vegetation can influence global climate by changing atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide concentrations, thermohaline circulation, and high latitude albedo. Documenting past variations in Arctic hydrological conditions is important for understanding Arctic climate and the potential response and role of the Arctic in regards to future climate change. Methods for reconstructing past changes in Arctic hydrology from the stratigraphic, isotopic, geochemical and fossil records of lake sediments are being developed, refined and applied in a number of regions. These records suggest that hydrological variations in the Arctic have been regionally asynchronous, reflecting the impacts of different forcing factors including orbitally controlled insolation changes, changes in geography related to coastal emergence, ocean currents, sea ice extent, and atmospheric circulation. Despite considerable progress, much work remains to be done on the development of paleohydrological proxies and their application to the Arctic.

Notes: Abstract The relationships between diatoms (Bacillariophyceae) in surface sediments of lakes and summer air temperature, pH and total organic carbon concentration (TOC) were explored along a steep climatic gradient in northern Sweden to provide a tool to infer past climate conditions from sediment cores. The study sites are in an area with low human impact and range from boreal forest to alpine tundra. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) constrained to mean July air temperature and pH clearly showed that diatom community composition was different between lakes situated in conifer-, mountain birch- and alpine-vegetation zones. As a consequence, diatoms and multivariate ordination methods can be used to infer past changes in treeline position and dominant forest type. Quantitative inference models were developed to estimate mean July air temperature, pH and TOC from sedimentary diatom assemblages using weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression. Relationships between diatoms and mean July air temperature were independent of lake-water pH, TOC, alkalinity and maximum depth. The results demonstrated that diatoms in lake sediments can provide useful and independent quantitative information for estimating past changes in mean July air temperature (R2 jack = 0.62, RMSEP = 0.86 °C; R2 and root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) based on jack-knifing), pH (R2 jack = 0.61, RMSEP = 0.30) and TOC (R2 jack = 0.49, RMSEP = 1.33 mg l-1). The paper focuses mainly on the relationship between diatom community composition and mean July air temperature, but the relationships to pH and TOC are also discussed.

Notes: Abstract This paper reports a first estimate of the Holocene lake sediment carbon pool in Alberta, Canada. The organic matter content of lake sediment does not appear to depend strongly on lake size or other limnological parameters, allowing a simple first estimate in which we assume all Alberta lake sediment to have the same organic matter content. Alberta lake sediments sequester about 15 g C m-2 yr-1, for a provincial total of 0.23 Tg C yr-1, or 2.3 Pg C over the Holocene. Alberta lakes may represent as much as 1/1700 of total global, annual permanent carbon sequestration.

Notes: Abstract As part of a series of papers describing the use of a simulation model to extrapolate experimental measurements of methane (CH4) emissions from rice fields in Asia and to evaluate the large-scale effect of various mitigation strategies, the collation and derivation of the spatial databases used are described. Daily weather data, including solar radiation, minimum and maximum temperatures, and rainfall were collated from 46 weather stations from the five countries in the study, namely China, India, Indonesia, Philippines, and Thailand. Quantitative soil data relevant to the input requirements of the model were derived by combining data from the World Inventory of Soil Emissions (WISE) database, the ISIS database, and the FAO Digital Soil Map of the World (FAO-DSMW). These data included soil pH; organic carbon content; sand, silt, and clay fractions; and iron content for top and subsoil layers, and average values of bulk density and available water capacity for the whole profile. Data on the areas allocated to irrigated, rainfed, upland, and deepwater rice at the province or district level were derived from the Huke & Huke (1997) database developed at IRRI. Using a geographical information system (GIS), a series of georeferenced data sets on climate, soils, and land use were derived for each country, at the province or district level. A summary of the soil-related derived databases is presented and their applicationn for use in global change modeling discussed.

Notes: Abstract Ecotones are inherent features of landscapes, transitional zones, and play more than one functional role in ecosystem dynamics. The delineation of ecotones and environmental boundaries is therefore an important step in land-use management planning. The delineation of ecotones depends on the phenomenon of interest and the statistical methods used as well as the associated spatial and temporal resolution of the data available. In the context of delineating wetland and riparian ecosystems, various data types (field data, remotely sensed data) can be used to delineate ecotones. Methodological issues related to their detection need to be addressed, however, so that their management and monitoring can yield useful information about their dynamics and functional roles in ecosystems. The aim of this paper is to review boundary detection methods. Because the most appropriate methods to detect and characterize boundaries depend of the spatial resolution and the measurement type of the data, a wide range of approaches are presented: GIS, remote sensing and statistical ones.

Notes: Abstract The application of non-linear heating program to a heat-flux DSC apparatus has attracted much attention. From thermodynamics viewpoint, it is shown that the variation of enthalpy of a sample changing with temperature change is due, to both the true heat capacity of the sample and the enthalpy of some transformations occurring in the sample, characterized by its degree of advance. Using the simple assumption that the rate of the transformation is proportional to the distance from the thermodynamic equilibrium, an electrical model of the thermal event is given. Using the coupled cell model of the DSC apparatus, we show how to obtain the rate of transformation of the sample and heat capacity, which is directly related to the base line of the experiment.

Notes: Abstract From a model for isothermal oxidation kinetics in nanosized ferrite spinels based on a diffusion-induced stress effect, the authors present a modeling of the DTG curves for the oxidation of Fe2+ and Mo3+ cations on octahedral sites of a molybdenum ferrite. This has been made by considering that the chemical diffusion coefficient is given by the relation $$\tilde D = D_o \exp \left( {\frac{{E'_{\text{a}} + pV_{\text{a}} }}{{RT}}} \right)$$ , when D o is a pre-exponential factor, E a ′ an activation energy and V a an activation energy induced by the oxidation.

Notes: Abstract Results are presented of optical emission spectroscopy (OES) application asa control tool to improve fly-ash plasma vitrification. A twin-torch plasmasystem has been used for the fly-ash processing, and a new OES method hasexamined metallic vapors above the melt. The method allows the study ofnonhomogeneous optically thin plasmas exhibiting a symmetry plane withoutsophisticated tomographic systems. The dc arc torches are mounted above acold crucible filled with a synthetic glass. The arc intensity is from200 to 400 Å. Argon is introduced into the torches along the cathodeand the anode, while argon, oxygen or hydrogen are injected through thelance between the torches. Local plasma temperatures above the melt havebeen evaluated using measured relative intensities of spectral lines ofthe plasma-forming gas. Metallic vapor concentration in the plasma isdeduced from the intensity ratio of the metal–gas spectral lines. Leadoxide has been used to study heavy-metal behavior at the fly-ash plasmavitrification. Distribution of the lead along the crucible surface,depending on the plasma-forming gas composition as well as the concentrationevolution with time, have been examined. The elemental analysis of theresultant glass has been measured by scanning electron microscopy (SEM)with energy-dispersive spectrometry (EDS). A predictive model has beenadapted to simulate the noncongruent vaporization of heavy metals from themelt. According to the data obtained, steep variations of the volatility ofthe elements depend strongly on reducing properties of gases controllingthe plasma composition near the melted surface. In addition, the melttemperature and the redox potential of the gas phase are found to be themost critical parameters.

Notes: Abstract The volatilization of quartz in a transferred arc plasma followed byquench and recondensation is a promising route to the production offumed silica. In this work, an existing model of a transferred arcwas modified and combined with a newly developed model of a moltensilica anode to predict the behavior of a transferred arc evaporatoras a function of current and plasma gas flow rate. The model predictstemperature, current, and flow fields in both the plasma and anode aswell as evaporation rates. Although quantitative agreement withexperimental results was not possible because of insufficient propertydata for silica at high temperature, the results were within an orderof magnitude of those measured experimentally. The model developed isuseful for the design and scaleup of this type of reactor.

Notes: Abstract A high-pressure and high-temperature phase of TiO2 : TiO2 II is formed transiently during room-temperature high-energy ball milling of anatase TiO2 : TiO2 anatase → TiO2 II → TiO2 rutile. Rutile is the only phase present after prolonged ball milling. The present paper focuses on the influences of physical and chemical processing conditions on the transformation kinetics. The effects of two milling parameters on the kinetics of phase transformation of anatase TiO2 were investigated: the nature of milling tools and the powder-to-ball weight ratio R. Granulometric characterizations and TEM observations have demonstrated that the transformation of TiO2 anatase into TiO2 II occurs without fracturing of particles and that TiO2 II nanograins form at the surface of anatase particles. The parameter R affects only the transformation rate. For a given R, the transformation rate is the largest with alumina grinding tools, intermediate with zirconia tools, and the smallest with steel tools. The parameters involved in current models of the mechanical alloying process do not suffice to explain the differences in transformation rates observed here. A parameter, which takes into account the influence of the mechanical properties of grinding materials, is considered.

Notes: Abstract The stresses generated in alumina scales during different oxidation stepscontrol the protective character of such scales and their lifetime. Laboratoryand industrial Fe–Cr–Al alloys, differing by their impuritycontent and preparation, and for which the oxidation kinetics werepreviously characterized, were studied here to experimentally determine ortheoretically calculate the stress level in the alumina scales. Theexperiments were performed by X-ray diffraction (XRD) at room temperature,using the sin2psi method. The oxide-stress level wascorrelated with many parameters, such as the scale microstructure andmorphology, the nature of the substrate, the substrate and oxide thickness,the oxide grain size, the cooling rate, etc. A numerical elasto-viscoplasticmodel was developed to calculate the thermal stresses and to point out theeffect of the relaxation phenomena either during cooling or duringisothermal treatment after oxidation. The results obtained by theelasto-viscoplastic model are in good agreement with the experimental ones.

Notes: Abstract Based on the description of shear horizontal (SH) wave propagation in arbitrarily oriented transversely isotropic media, radiation characteristics of ultrasonic transducers for this wave type are determined. The radiated wavefields are obtained by point source superposition, making use of an analytical relationship for the wave propagation direction as a function of the spatial coordinates. Approximate formulae are given for the radiation characteristics of circular and rectangular transducers in the far-field, which are in a form similar to the isotropic material case. Focusing on transversely isotropic weld metal specimens and unidirectional composites, numerical evaluation is performed for normal-incidence probes as well as for electromagnetic acoustic transducers.

Notes: Abstract The evolution of grain size, grain-size distribution, morphological and crystallographic texture, surface roughness, and the contribution of various surface facets to the growth of polycrystalline diamond films is performed by carrying out a series of two-dimensional computer simulations. The films are assumed to grow from a set of randomly oriented, {100}- and {111}-faceted nuclei by the motion of their vertices (the points where the adjoining facets of the same or neighboring grains meet). The vertex velocities are found to be a function of the orientation and the growth rate of the adjoining facets. To quantify the latter, a {100} to {111} growth-rate parameter is used. The results show that the evolution of the grain size and its distribution, surface roughness, morphological and crystallographic texture, and the portion of the film grown from different surface facets are all mutually linked and governed by the magnitude of the growth-rate parameter. The latter can be controlled by the CVD processing conditions, such as the substrate temperature, reactor pressure, mole fraction of carbon-source gas (e.g., CH4, C2H2).

Notes: Abstract Cohen et al. [16] suggest that in order to explore ways to bring climate change (CC) and sustainable development (SD) research together, it is necessary to develop more heuristic tools that can involve resource users and other stakeholders. In this respect, this paper focuses on methodological development in research to study climate change impacts and regional sustainable development (RSD). It starts with an introduction of an integrated land assessment framework (ILAF) which is part of the integrated phase of the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS) in Canada. The paper then provides some articulation on how the integrated approach was applied in the Mackenzie Basin to show implications of climate change for RSD.

Notes: Abstract Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments.

Notes: Abstract Long-term variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic thermohaline ocean circulation (THC) are both shaping the European climate on time scales of decades and longer. Possible linear and non-linear changes in the characteristics of these natural climate modes due to global warming are an important source of uncertainty in long-term regional projections of future climate changes.

Notes: Abstract The potential ecological impact of ongoing climate change has been much discussed. High mountain ecosystems were identified early on as potentially very sensitive areas. Scenarios of upward species movement and vegetation shift are commonly discussed in the literature. Mountains being characteristically conic in shape, impact scenarios usually assume that a smaller surface area will be available as species move up. However, as the frequency distribution of additional physiographic factors (e.g., slope angle) changes with increasing elevation (e.g., with few gentle slopes available at higher elevation), species migrating upslope may encounter increasingly unsuitable conditions. As a result, many species could suffer severe reduction of their habitat surface, which could in turn affect patterns of biodiversity. In this paper, results from static plant distribution modeling are used to derive climate change impact scenarios in a high mountain environment. Models are adjusted with presence/absence of species. Environmental predictors used are: annual mean air temperature, slope, indices of topographic position, geology, rock cover, modeled permafrost and several indices of solar radiation and snow cover duration. Potential Habitat Distribution maps were drawn for 62 higher plant species, from which three separate climate change impact scenarios were derived. These scenarios show a great range of response, depending on the species and the degree of warming. Alpine species would be at greatest risk of local extinction, whereas species with a large elevation range would run the lowest risk. Limitations of the models and scenarios are further discussed.

Notes: Abstract In order to rationalize the physicochemical properties of human serum-transferrin (STf) and the STf-receptor (TfR) recognition process, we have tried to predict the 3D structures of apo- and iron-loaded STf using a homology modeling technique to study the changes in the structural characteristics that take place upon the uptake of iron by STf in solution. The crystal structures of both forms for ovotransferrin were used as templates for the STf modeling. The modeled structure of STf gave a satisfactory interpretation for the typical physicochemical properties such that (1) STf has a negative electrophoretic mobility and its value increases with iron uptake, and (2) the radius of gyration Rg of Tf decreases with iron uptake. It was found that upon iron binding, interdomain closures take place with large movements of the NII and CII subdomains comprising the N- and C-lobes in STf through a hinge-bending motion, accompanied by the opening of the bridge region with a displacement of more than 15 Å. Moreover, in view of the findings from our capillary electrophoresis experiments that the electrostatic interactions significantly contribute to a specific binding of Fe2-STf with TfR, it is inferred that the connecting (bridge) and its neighboring region associated with a surface exposure of negative charge play an important role in the STf-receptor recognition process.

Notes: Summary The SWACROP root-water uptake function for potatoes was determined in the 1994–95 crop season on a Ferralsol in Havana province, west Cuba. The maximum pressure-heads under which water is optimally extracted by potato roots were very similar to the original Feddes function. Nevertheless, the anaerobiosis point and the wilting point pressure-head in both functions were not in agreement. However, the simulated values of soil water contents in the 0–40 cm soil depth by performing SWACROP runs in the 1995–96 potato crop season using both functions were very similar. The original Feddes function seems to be good enough for predicting soil water contents in the tropics and no specific other functions need to be developed for any particular soil or climate condition.

Notes: Abstract Seventy-three species of macroalgae from the Mexican Pacific, Atlantic and Caribbean coast were screened for ichtyotoxic activity. Ethanolic, acetonic and aqueous extracts were prepared and tested against the fish Carassius auratus. The extracts were classified on the basis of their effects as: toxic if the fish died in two hours or less; moderately toxic, if the organism behaved abnormally but death did notoccur, and non-toxic if the fish did not display any change. 79% species were ichtyotoxic to some degree. Extracts of 39 species were toxic, with at least one extract with lethal effects, 19 were moderately toxic and 15 species were non-toxic. Only the extracts ofDictyota bartayresiana, Dictyota cervicornis,Lobophora variegata, Bryothamnion triquetrum and Laurencia obtusa were toxic in all three solvents. The acetone and ethanol extracts were more active, and therefore are more suitable for extraction of toxic substances.

Notes: Abstract This essay extends Levins' 1966 analysis of modelbuilding in ecology and evolutionary biology. Amodel, as the product of modeling, might bevalued according to its correspondence to reality. Yet Levins' emphasis on provisionality and changeredirects attention to the processes ofmodeling, through which scientists select and generatetheir problems, define their categories, collect theirdata, compare competing models, and present theirfindings. I identify several points where decisionsare required that are not determined by nature. Thisinvites examination of the social considerationsmodelers are reacting to at the “sites of sociality”.Modelers must weave “socio-ecological webs” so thatthe models can be seen to represent their subjectmatter at the same time as the modelers secure thesupport of colleagues, collaborators and institutions,and enjoin others to act upon their conclusions. Notonly do theory justification and theory generationmerge, but the joint project becomes simultaneouslyphilosophical and sociological.

Notes: Abstract A stromatolitic microbial mat extensively covers La Solana streambed, a calcareous Mediterranean stream. This stromatolite shows remarkable biological and physiological diversity. It is mainly composed by cyanobacteria, with Rivularia and Schizothrix as the most abundant taxa. The stromatolite is photosynthetically adaptated to the high irradiances reaching the streambed. Photosynthetically active chlorophyll is present even in the lowest layers of the stromatolite, indicating the presence of well-preserved cyanobacteria in that part. Diffusion of gases and nutrients within the stromatolite can be possible because of the high porosity of the crust. It has been experimentally established that the stromatolite recovers heterotrophic and autotrophic activities in a few hours, after being desiccated for long periods. Recovery after desiccation is indicative of the high resilience of this community to environmental extremes, which are common in Mediterranean climatic regimes. The stromatolitic community is adapted to nutrient limitation, both to low availability of inorganic phosphorus and nitrogen (that constrain growth of primary producers), and to low dissolved organic carbon (mainly affecting heterotrophs). Stromatolitic heterotrophs mainly rely on the organic carbon stored in the crust as the main organic carbon source. These strategies are the direct response of the stromatolite to oligotrophy, and justify the restricted occurrence in stream systems affected by organic pollution.

Notes: Abstract Three Calluna vulgaris (L.) Hull heathlands (1100, 1500 and 1780 m altitude) are studied in order to establish and estimate parameters which will be integrated in a discrete event simulation of heathland functioning in the case of a 2 °C climate warming. The sites, situated in the Chaîne des Puys and the Massif du Sancy (France), present similar conditions for Calluna growth: bedrock (trachyt), exposure and slope, so that they can be compared on a climatic basis. Main parameters sampled are: age distributions, life expectancies, layering probabilities, annual growths, biomasses (standing crop), C/N rates and potential respiratory of soils. In addition, experiments were carried out on germination, hypocotyle elongation and growth of mycorrhizal fungi in order to estimate the inhibitory-to-growth action against the substitution process. On one stand (exhibiting gaps) the patch structure of Calluna plants was recorded and mapped. The rising of biomass expected is calculated according to the Aerts's model, as a function of nitrogen availability which would increase under a scenario of climate warming. From a similar point of view, layering probabilities, life expectancies and inhibition of seedlings survival modelling – under a linear model assumption – are proposed.

Notes: Abstract Large-scale steady-state groundwater flow in atoll carbonate platforms results from temperature and salinity-induced density gradients. Atolls are built on top of a basaltic substrate that provides geothermal heating from beneath. Moreover, they are immersed in the tropical ocean where temperature decreases rapidly with depth. Groundwater circulation in these platforms has long been associated with the geothermal heat flux because it is capable of generating inward and upward flow of oceanic origin water by buoyancy effects. This study shows that hydraulic circulation occurs even in the absence of a geothermal flux because the combination of the cold subsurface ocean waters with the warm surface conditions is sufficient to maintain a convection cell within the carbonate platform. Using a one-dimensional analytical model, validated by more sophisticated two-dimensional simulations, we can investigate the interaction between these two driving forces. The flow rate inside the platform is, in fact, a function of the ratio of the geothermal flux to the temperature gradient in the ocean. It increases with the geothermal flux but decreases with the oceanic temperature gradient. This one-dimensional model also shows that taking salinity effects on density into account increases the flow rates transiting through the platform by a third.

Notes: Abstract We have been interested in Automatic Guided Vehicles (AGV) for several years. In this paper, we synthesize controllers for AGV applications using monocular vision. In particular, we are interested in road following and direction change tasks, and in analyzing the influence of extrinsic camera parameter perturbations on vehicle behavior. We use the bicycle as the kinematic vehicle model, and we choose the position of the white band on the road as the sensor signal. We define an interaction between the camera, which is mounted inside the vehicle, and the white band detected in the image space. Using this kind of interaction, we present how to use a pole assignment technique to solve the servoing task. We show the simulation and experimental results (1/10 scale demonstrator) with and without perturbations. We then investigate the use of a robust controller to slow down the effect of perturbations on the behavior of the vehicle.

Notes: Abstract Hydro power schemes operating in a free electricity market seek to maximize profits by differing generation rates to take best advantage of fluctuating selling prices, subject to the constraints of keeping storage lakes within their operational bounds and avoiding spillage losses. Various computer algorithms can be used in place of manual scheme operation to aid this maximization process, so it is desirable to quantify any profit gained from a given algorithm. A standard approach involves applying the algorithm to a period of past river flow records to see how much additional scheme income might have been obtained. This process requires the use of a hydro power scheme model, which inevitably can only approximate operational details, so the anticipated income gains are likely to be biased estimates of actual income gained from implementation of the algorithm. In addition to preliminary algorithm evaluation, it is desirable that hydro scheme managers have methodology to confirm anticipated income gain. Such confirmation can be difficult because true income gains are typically in the order of a few percentage and may not be easily distinguishable from background noise. We develop an approach, which allows estimation of true income gain for the situation where a change is made from manual to computer control of hydro power scheme operations, or upgrading from one maximization algorithm to another. The method uses a regression model to describe the former period of scheme operation. Postimplementation residuals from the regression predictions then provide estimates of actual income gain. The method can be sensitive to small but consistent income gains. Also, there is no requirement to construct any hydro scheme simulation model so bias effects should be considerably reduced. The approach was developed in the context of evaluating an income-maximization algorithm applied to a small hydro power scheme in the Kaimai Ranges of New Zealand. However, the methodology seems sufficiently simple and general to be applicable, with modification, to other power schemes moving toward increasing income through operational changes.

Notes: Abstract Integrated flow modeling is the combination of a traditional flow simulator with a petrophysical model. By combining a petrophysical model with a traditional flow model, it is possible to perform calculations that improve our ability to monitor fluid movement in porous media. This paper outlines the formulation of an integrated flow model IFLO and its multi-variable, Newton–Raphson IMPES solution procedure. The benefits of integrated flow modeling and the underlying principles involved in the integration of a flow model with a petrophysical model are presented. Results from the IFLO model are used to illustrate the principles.

Notes: Abstract Problem-based learning is a constructivist approach toprofessional education stressing the use of real lifeproblems in education. Several previous attempts tounderstand the intricacies of learning in theproblem-based context have led to a causal model,elements of which were tested in the present study.The focus of the investigation was on the students' motivation to committhemselves to studying in a problem-based healthsciences curriculum, expressed in term of levels ofattendance at tutorial meetings. Data were collectedregarding functioning of the tutorial group, tutorfunctioning, level of prior knowledge, quality of theinstructional problems, time spent on individualstudy, academic achievement and increased interest.These data were analyzed using a structural equationsmodeling approach. As hypothesized, commitment appears to bea potent determinant of achievement. In fact, itrepresents one of the strongest determinants oflearning in the model tested.

Notes: Abstract The recently developed natural radon tracer method has potential as a rapid, low‐cost, nondestructive, and noninvasive method for quantifying NAPL contamination. In the subsurface, radon‐222 (radon) is produced by the decay of naturally occurring radium‐226 contained in the mineral fraction of aquifer solids. In groundwater radon occurs as a dissolved gas, with a half‐life of 3.83 days. In the absence of NAPL, the radon concentration in groundwater quickly reaches a maximum value that is determined by the mineral composition of the aquifer solids, which controls the rate of radon emanation. In the presence of NAPL, however, the radon concentration in the groundwater is substantially reduced due to the preferential partitioning of radon into the organic NAPL phase. A simple equilibrium model and supporting laboratory studies show the reduction in radon concentration can be quantitatively correlated with residual NAPL saturation. Thus, by measuring the spatial distribution in radon it may be possible to identify locations where residual NAPL is present and to quantify the NAPL saturation. When the basic processes of partitioning, radon emanation from the aquifer solids, and first‐order decay are incorporated into an advective/dispersive transport model, good agreement is obtained with the results of laboratory and field experiments. Model sensitivity analyses shows many factors can contribute to the radon concentration response, including the length of the NAPL zone, NAPL saturation, groundwater velocity, porosity, and radon emanation. Thus, care must be taken when applying the radon method to locate and quantify NAPL contamination in the subsurface.

Notes: Abstract Peat is an alternative filter medium for the treatment of various waste streams including septic tank effluent. The water holding capacity and adsorption capacity of peat make it a favorable filter medium over sand or gravel which are commonly used as the filter medium for the drainage field of septic systems. This paper presents the results of a field study to evaluate the hydraulics of a peat filter used to treat the septic tank effluent from a public school west of Ottawa, Canada. An experimental box was placed within the filter during its construction to provide access to the vertical profile of the peat layer. The filter is periodically pulsed with septic tank effluent, which is distributed over the top of the filter and flows vertically through the peat. The filter was instrumented with tensiometers and transducers to monitor the pore water pressures in response to a pulse of septic tank effluent. An in-depth study of the hydraulics of the system was completed. The soil moisture retention curve and the hydraulic conductivity as a function of density were determined in laboratory experiments. A one-dimensional unsaturated flow model was used to predict the pressure response due to a pulse. A comparison of the field and model results illustrates the impact of the density variations, and the corresponding hydraulic conductivity variations, on the model predictions. The compaction of the peat is an important design consideration for the filter since it directly impacts the flow characteristics and the hydraulic retention time within the filter.

Notes: Abstract Ecosystem Management (EM) is a new holistic approach to the management of natural resources. It integrates the scientificknowledge on ecological interrelationships and the complex socioeconomic and political frame of values, aiming at the long-term sustainability of a region, i.e., the ecosystem. Itincludes the human, biological and natural dimensions, and canregulate the internal structures and functions of the ecosystem,and the inputs and outputs from it, so that solutions to development and protection problems can be achieved and be socially well-accepted. It has been given attention since 1991,mainly in the U.S.A., where the existing legal framework formeda basis for EM. The former experience of programs based on the traditional methods of management, the goal of sustainable development stated by many governmental, public or private agencies, and the advent of scientific knowledge, permitted the development of a theoretical basis for EM. Today, a significant number of EM programs have been established and are in progressin the U.S.A. Here the concept, general principles and methodology of EM are reviewed, and the EM program in the Stateof Florida in the U.S.A. is presented, which is considered a successful case study. In addition, the examples of managementof two very important ecosystems in Northern Greece are critically presented for comparison, in order to evaluate if they have EM characteristics.

Notes: Abstract Two-dimensional, vertically-averaged hydrodynamic and sediment transport models were developed and applied as part of a PCB fate and transport modeling study of Thompson Island Pool (TIP), Upper Hudson River. Mechanistic formulations were used to simulate cohesive and non-cohesive suspended load transport; site-specific data were extensively used to determine model inputs. This modeling approach is compared and contrasted to non-mechanistic solids transport sub-models used in other contaminant fate studies. A minimum number of model parameters were adjusted to calibrate the sediment transport model using data collected during the 1994 spring flood. The model was validated during the 1997 spring flood and for a 22-year (1977–1998) period. Successful calibration and validation of the model showed that: (1) deposition and resuspension processes were realistically and accurately formulated in the model; (2) the model is an effective diagnostic tool for quantitatively evaluating net deposition and erosion from various areas of TIP; and (3) sediment transport results can be coupled with a PCB fate model with a high degree of confidence.

Notes: Abstract The development, testing and application of a dynamic two-dimensional (longitudinal-vertical) mass balance model for dissolved oxygen (DO) and chlorophyll (Chl) for rivers is documented that for the first time accommodates both the oxygen demand and filtering effects of zebra mussels. The test system is a phytoplankton-rich section (∼ 15 km long) of the Seneca River, NY, that is believed to represent an upper bound of the impact of this exotic invader. Changes in common measures of water quality of the river brought about by the zebra mussel invasion are reviewed and related longitudinal patterns in DO, Chl, and Secchi disc transparency are documented. Model testing is supported by comprehensive measurements of DO, Chl, and various forcing conditions over a three-month period, and independent determinations of several model coefficients. Wide variations in the areal consumption rate of DO (ZOD; g·m−2·d−1) and filtering rate (m3·m−2·d−1) of zebra mussels, as determined through model calibration, occurred over the study period. Values of ZOD in areas with dense zebra mussel populations at times (e.g., 〉 50 g·m−2·d−1) were an order of magnitude greater than the sediment oxygen demand associated with organically enriched deposits. The value of determinations of these fluxes from model calibration procedures is evaluated within the context of the limitations of protocols presently available to support independent specification of these rates. Model analyses are conducted to evaluate the relative magnitude of source and sink processes for DO and Chl, the potential operation and implications of feedback from low DO levels on oxygen consumption by zebra mussels, and the sensitivity of model simulations to selected sources of uncertainty and variability. Model projections of oxygen resources of the river are presented in a probabilistic format in evaluating reductions in zebra mussel biomass that would be necessary to eliminate violations of standards and regain assimilative capacity.

Notes: Abstract In this article, the relationship between U.K. watercompanies' perceptions of past climatic extremes andtheir effect on resilience to future climatic changeis explored. Perceptions and activities related topast and future dry periods was investigated throughinterviews with managers at the ten major English andWelsh water supply/sewerage companies, and severalsmaller, water-only companies. Several of thecompanies report that they have observed a trendtowards drier summers in their regions, and a number of companies say that they have observed a changetowards more intensive rainfall of shorter duration. Recent supply measures in a number of regions havebeen aimed at improving storage and distributionrelated to the perceived change in rainfall intensity.A new requirement to incorporate regional climatechange scenarios in future supply assumptions appearsto have had little impact on planning in the region todate. Many water resource planners believe that thescenarios generated are too aggregated and do notencourage a precautionary approach to planning. Somemanagers believe that records of historical droughtconditions, such as experienced in 1933/1934 or 1995/1996,as worst-case scenarios provide a better basis for planning.

Notes: Abstract Understanding the dynamics between a pathogen and a biocontrol agent (BCA) in soil or in an infection court such as the rhizosphere is crucial for predicting the success of biological control. This is especially true for biological control using the strategy of reduction of initial inoculum prior to infection. By studying the population density fluxes over time, one can observe how the BCA and pathogen influence each other's population and life cycles, and how the biological and physical environment influence this relationship. Methods for quantifying fungi and bacteria in soil, including classical (dilution plating, baiting, bioassays), immunological (ELISA, IFC, immunomagnetic) and molecular (DNA hybridization, PCR, marker and reporter genes) methods, are discussed and critiqued. Finally, the value of mathematical modeling of population dynamics as a means of providing important information about the tripartite relationship between the pathogen, BCA, and host plant is reviewed.

Notes: Abstract Approaches to models and computer simulations of conductivity, polarization resistance, and impedance of composite electrodes in solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) are reviewed with respect to the more important experimental findings. The approaches are classified according to how they model the highly disordered structure of composite SOFC electrodes: As corrugated layers of electrode material covered by a thin film of electrolyte or vice versa (thin film model), as a random packing of particles (Monte Carlo calculations), or using a macroscopic, averaged description of the disordered electrode structure (macroscopic porous-electrode model). Thin film models appear to be useful rationalizations of some experimental measurements of polarization resistance, but in the stricter sense fail to predict a number of important electrode characteristics. The Monte Carlo method, on the other hand, apparently meets with most of the more prominent experimental results reported so far, although some issues concerning parameter choices, among other things, remain to be resolved. The macroscopic porous-electrode theory may serve as a useful simplification of the Monte Carlo method, but with a more limited scope. Modeling of composite electrodes for SOFC thus appears to have reached a level where it can be used for practical engineering applications. As an example of this, the rate of methane reforming at Ni-YSZ cermet anodes under current load is calculated using the framework of the macroscopic porous-electrode theory, modified to include non-linear kinetics and gas-phase diffusion. The reforming reaction is quite evenly distributed in the anode, and its overall rate is therefore strongly dependent on thickness. However, most of the electrochemical reaction is likely to occur in a region closer than 10 μm to the bulk electrolyte. For an anode thickness larger than this, the current-collector potential at a given current is by and large independent of thickness. The ratio between the rates of the reforming and the electrochemical reactions can therefore be balanced to a certain degree by optimizing thickness, without significant loss in cell power. In addition, cermet porosity, volume fraction of Ni and Ni-particle size, appears to have a moderate effect in controlling the rate balance, which will have to be manipulated within the constraints set by the requirement of percolation in the gas-phase and the Ni- and YSZ-networks.

Notes: Abstract Purpose. To develop a mathematical model for therapeutic drugmonitoring and to assess the kinetic relationships between the intensity ofcorrective action and the approach of drug concentrations to targetvalues. Methods. A mathematical model that succinctly accounts for thecorrective actions and the variability inherent in the pharmacokineticswas used. Results. The validity of the variability term was tested usingexperimental data for steady state concentrations of the drug procainamide.The approach of the monitored process to the target value followedexponential kinetics and an analytical expression for dependence thevariance with time and various dosing parameters was derived. Thevariance of the drug concentration depends critically on a singlenon-dimensional parameter containing the rate constant for the therapeuticcorrective actions and a coefficient describing the variance rate. Whenthe rate constant for the therapeutic corrective actions was less thanthis critical value, the variance increased indefinitely. Conclusions. From a dosing standpoint, large variances in drugconcentrations are undesirable because some patients will be overdosedor underdosed. Since deterministic models cannot provide analyticalsolutions for the moments of drug concentration distribution functions,stochastic models can be used to provide useful insights into the designof therapeutic regimens.

Notes: Abstract Purpose. The aims of this study were (i) to elucidate the transport mechanisms involved in drug release from hydrophilic matrices; and (ii) to develop an improved mathematical model allowing quantitative predictions of the resulting release kinetics. Methods. Our previously presented model has been substantially modified, by adding: (i) inhomogeneous swelling; (ii) poorly water-soluble drugs; and (iii) high initial drug loadings. The validity of the improved model has been tested experimentally using hydroxypropyl methylcellulose (HPMC)-matrices, containing either a poorly or a freely water-soluble drug (theophylline or chlorpheniramine maleate) at various initial loadings in phosphate buffer pH 7.4 and 0.1 N HCl, respectively. Results. By overcoming the assumption of homogeneous swelling we show that the agreement between theory and experiment could be significantly improved. Among others, the model could describe quantitatively even the very complex effect on the resulting relative release rates (first slowing down, then accelerating drug release) observed when increasing the initial loading of poorly water-soluble drugs. Conclusions. The practical benefit of this work is an improved design model that can be used to predict accurately the required composition and dimensions of drug-loaded hydrophilic matrices in order to achieve desired release profiles, thus facilitating the development of new pharmaceutical products.

Notes: Abstract Purpose. To analyze the role of the kinetics of glycyrrhizic acid (GD) in its toxicity. A physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model that has been developed for humans. Methods. The kinetics of GD, which is absorbed as glycyrrhetic acid (GA), were described by a human PBPK model, which is based on a rat model. After rat to human extrapolation, the model was validated on plasma concentration data after ingestion of GA and GD solutions or licorice confectionery, and an additional data derived from the literature. Observed interindividual variability in kinetics was quantified by deriving an optimal set of parameters for each individual. Results. The a-priori defined model successfully forecasted GA kinetics in humans, which is characterized by a second absorption peak in the terminal elimination phase. This peak is subscribed to enterohepatic cycling of GA metabolites. The optimized model explained most of the interindividual variance, observed in the clinical study, and adequately described data from the literature. Conclusions. Preclinical information on GD kinetics could be incorporated in the human PBPK model. Model simulations demonstrate that especially in subjects with prolonged gastrointestinal residence times, GA may accumulate after repeated licorice consumption, thus increasing the health risk of this specific subgroup of individuals.

Notes: Abstract The influence of elevated CO2 concentration ([CO2]) during plant growth on the carbon:nutrient ratios of tissues depends in part on the time and space scales considered. Most evidence relates to individual plants examined over weeks to just a few years. The C:N ratio of live tissues is found to increase, decrease or remain the same under elevated [CO2]. On average it increases by about 15% under a doubled [CO2]. A testable hypothesis is proposed to explain why it increases in some situations and decreases in others. It includes the notion that only in the intermediate range of N-availability will C:N of live tissues increase under elevated [CO2]. Five hypotheses to explain the mechanism of such increase in C:N are discussed; none of these options explains all the published results. Where elevated [CO2] did increase the C:N of green leaves, that response was not necessarily expressed as a higher C:N of senesced leaves. An hypothesis is explored to explain the observed range in the degree of propogation of a CO2 effect on live tissues through to the litter derived from them. Data on C:P ratios under elevated [CO2] are sparse and also variable. They do not yet suggest a generalising-hypothesis of responses. Although, unlike for C:N, there is no theoretical expectation that C:P of plants would increase under elevated [CO2], the average trend in the data is of such an increase. The processes determining the C:P response to elevated [CO2] seem to be largely independent of those for C:N. Research to advance the topic should be structured to examine the components of the hypotheses to explain effects on C:N. This involves experiments in which plants are grown over the full range of N and of P availability from extreme limitation to beyond saturation. Measurements need to: distinguish structural from non-structural dry matter; organic from inorganic forms of the nutrient in the tissues; involve all parts of the plant to evaluate nutrient and C allocation changes with treatments; determine resorption factors during tissue senescence; and be made with cognisance of the temporal and spatial aspects of the phenomena involved.

Notes: Abstract The following arguments are outlined and then illustrated by the response of the Hurley Pasture Model to [CO2] doubling in the climate of southern Britain. 1. The growth of N-limited vegetation is determined by the concentration of N in the soil mineral N pools and high turnover rates of these pools (i.e., large input and output fluxes) contribute positively to growth. 2. The size and turnover rates of the soil mineral N pools are determined overwhelmingly by N cycling into all forms of organic matter (plants, animals, soil biomass and soil organic matter — `immobilisation' in a broad sense) and back again by mineralisation. Annual system N gains (by N2 fixation and atmospheric deposition) and losses (by leaching, volatilisation, nitrification and denitrification) are small by comparison. 3. Elevated [CO2] enriches the organic matter in plants and soils with C, which leads directly to increased removal of N from the soil mineral N pools into plant biomass, soil biomass and soil organic matter (SOM). ‘Immobilisation’ in the broad sense then exceeds mineralisation. This is a transient state and as long as it exists the soil mineral N pools are depleted, N gaseous and leaching losses are reduced and the ecosystem gains N. Thus, net immobilisation gradually increases the N status of the ecosystem. 4. At the same time, elevated [CO2] increases symbiotic and non-symbiotic N2 fixation. Thus, more N is gained each year as well as less lost. Effectively, the extra C fixed in elevated [CO2] is used to capture and retain more N and so the N cycle tracks the C cycle. 5. However, the amount of extra N fixed and retained by the ecosystem each year will always be small (ca. 5–10 kg N ha-1 yr-1) compared with amount of N in the immobilisation-mineralisation cycle (ca. 1000 kg N ha-1 yr-1). Consequently, the ecosystem can take decades to centuries to gear up to a new equilibrium higher-N state. 6. The extent and timescale of the depletion of the mineral N pools in elevated [CO2] depends on the N status of the system and the magnitude of the overall system N gains and losses. Small changes in the large immobilisation—mineralisation cycle have large effects on the small mineral N pools. Consequently, it is possible to obtain a variety of growth responses within 1–10 year experiments. Ironically, ecosystem models — artificial constructs — may be the best or only way of determining what is happening in the real world.

Notes: Abstract Atmospheric CO2 concentration continues to rise. It is important, therefore, to determine what acclimatory changes will occur within the photosynthetic apparatus of wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Yecora Rojo) grown in a future high-CO2 world at ample and limited soil N contents. Wheat was grown in an open field exposed to the CO2 concentration of ambient air [370 μmol (CO2) mol−1; Control] and air enriched to ∼200 μmol (CO2) mol−1 above ambient using a Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) apparatus (main plot). A High (35 g m−2) or Low (7 and 1.5 g m−2 for 1996 and 1997, respectfully) level of N was applied to each half of the main CO2 treatment plots (split-plot). Under High-N, FACE reduced stomatal conductance (g s) by 30% at mid-morning (2 h prior to solar noon), 36% at midday (solar noon) and 27% at mid-afternoon (2.5 h after solar noon), whereas under Low-N, g s was reduced by as much as 31% at mid-morning, 44% at midday and 28% at mid-afternoon compared with Control. But, no significant CO2 × N interaction effects occurred. Across seasons and growth stages, daily accumulation of carbon (A′) was 27% greater in FACE than Control. High-N increased A′ by 18% compared with Low-N. In contrast to results for g s, however, significant CO2 × N interaction effects occurred because FACE increased A′ by 30% at High-N, but by only 23% at Low-N. FACE enhanced the seasonal accumulation of carbon (A′′) by 29% during 1996 (moderate N-stress), but by only 21% during 1997 (severe N-stress). These results support the premise that in a future high-CO2 world an acclimatory (down-regulation) response in the photosynthetic apparatus of field-grown wheat is anticipated. They also demonstrate, however, that the stimulatory effect of a rise in atmospheric CO2 on carbon gain in wheat can be maintained if nutrients such as nitrogen are in ample supply.

Notes: Abstract Populations of the mayfly Cloeon dipterum from 48 ponds (3000 l fibre-glass tanks of 1 m depth) were monitored over the course of 1 year. To simulate possible patterns of climatic change, the ponds were subject to three temperature treatments: continuous heating to 3 °C above ambient; heating to 3 °C above ambient during the summer only; and no heating. Further experimental complexity included enhanced nutrient input into the ponds and the presence or absence of fish, giving a factorial combination of 3 temperature regimes × 2 nutrient levels × presence/absence of fish predation. Few nymphs were found in the presence of fish. Where fish were absent, the temperature treatments did not significantly affect nymph abundances, and only marginally influenced mean nymph body-lengths. In contrast, the nutrient treatment had significant effects on both nymph abundance and size, with greater numbers of generally larger nymphs occurring in those fish-free ponds receiving additional nutrients. Adult emergence began earlier in the year from the heated ponds, particularly those ponds receiving additional nutrients. Adult body-length differed between temperature treatments, but consistent patterns were difficult to ascertain because of interactions with nutrient treatment and seasonal effects. Our results show that during the short term at least, elevated temperature as a simulation of climate change does not have an overwhelming influence on either mayfly abundance or size. The influence of temperature is subtle and subject to complex interaction with other habitat variables. We therefore suggest that the direct consequences of small changes in temperature will likely be of little significance to C. dipterum, relative to indirect effects operating through interactions with predation and nutrient input.

Notes: Abstract We explore a computationally efficient method of simulating realistic networks of neurons introduced by Knight, Manin, and Sirovich (1996) in which integrate-and-fire neurons are grouped into large populations of similar neurons. For each population, we form a probability density that represents the distribution of neurons over all possible states. The populations are coupled via stochastic synapses in which the conductance of a neuron is modulated according to the firing rates of its presynaptic populations. The evolution equation for each of these probability densities is a partial differential-integral equation, which we solve numerically. Results obtained for several example networks are tested against conventional computations for groups of individual neurons. We apply this approach to modeling orientation tuning in the visual cortex. Our population density model is based on the recurrent feedback model of a hypercolumn in cat visual cortex of Somers et al. (1995). We simulate the response to oriented flashed bars. As in the Somers model, a weak orientation bias provided by feed-forward lateral geniculate input is transformed by intracortical circuitry into sharper orientation tuning that is independent of stimulus contrast. The population density approach appears to be a viable method for simulating large neural networks. Its computational efficiency overcomes some of the restrictions imposed by computation time in individual neuron simulations, allowing one to build more complex networks and to explore parameter space more easily. The method produces smooth rate functions with one pass of the stimulus and does not require signal averaging. At the same time, this model captures the dynamics of single-neuron activity that are missed in simple firing-rate models.

Notes: Abstract The artifice of an infinitely-lived representative agent iscommonly invoked to balance the present costs and future benefitsof climate stabilization policies. Since actual economies arepopulated by overlapping generations of finite-lived persons,this approach begs important questions of welfare aggregation.This paper compares the results of representative agent andoverlapping generations models that are numerically calibratedbased on standard assumptions regarding climate--economyinteractions. Under two social choice rules -- Pareto efficiencyand classical utilitarianism -- the models generate closelysimilar simulation results. In the absence of policies toredistribute income between present and future generations,efficient rates of carbon dioxide emissions abatement rise from15 to 20% between the years 2000 and 2105. Under classicalutilitarianism, in contrast, optimal control rates rise from 48 to 79% this same period.

Notes: Abstract Winter tourism and mountain agriculture are the most important economic sectors in a major part of the Swiss Alps. Both are highly sensitive to changing climatic conditions. In the framework of the CLEAR project, results from climate impact research in the field of tourism and agricultural production were used to investigate the perception of climatic change by stakeholders and to assess possible adaptations. We used a participatory integrated assessment (PIA) to involve the knowledge, values and experiences of the various social actors in tourism and agriculture (e.g., skiers, tourism managers, farmers) in the research process. Whereas climate change may have various severe direct impacts on the tourism industry, depending on the region, agricultural production may generally benefit from changed climatic conditions. But because of the dependence of farmers on “off-farm” income, the loss due to declining winter tourism in specific areas may cause more important indirect effects. However, the two sectors may adapt actively by choosing from a variety of strategies, and the loss of income from the tourism industry may support the re-evaluation of the various functions agriculture plays in mountain regions, beyond the production of food. The study demonstrates the suitability of the PIA approach to elucidate the interactions between different stakeholders and their perception of the climate change phenomena. A similar participatory approach could be a useful tool to transfer research results and expert knowledge to the political process addressing adaptations to climate change.

Notes: Abstract This paper analyzes future carbon emissions inequality using a group decomposition of the Gini index. Business-as-usual projections to the year 2100 for 135 countries show inequality in per capita emissions declines slowly. Next, the impact on emissions levels and inequality of the Kyoto Protocol and other abatement proposals for Annex II countries in 2010 are measured, with a focus on the gap-narrowing and reranking effects. Substantial reranking of per capita emissions between Annex II and non-Annex II countries will not occur unless the former reduce their emissions by at least 50% (versus 1990 levels) and the latter continue growing unabated.

Notes: Abstract A standard framework is presented as an underlying model for the discounting debate. Views and proposals for the techniques and rates of discounting are assessed. Alternative modeling frameworks for studying intergenerational equity issues are evaluated with the result that the basic insights they provide do not differ very much. Results from model experiments involving different discount rate proposals show that fudging the discount rate does not lead to efficient climate policy. Three major clusters of opinions are identified regarding the applicability of cost-benefit analysis to the climate change problem and the appropriate discount rate to use. It is concluded that under some very special circumstances the cost-benefit rule should be abandoned and cost-effective strategies implying standard discount rates should be sought to reach clearly defined and justified environmental targets.

Notes: Abstract SOI devices are frequently used nowadays in the RF and HF field. Design of complex SOI integrated circuits involves a prior detailed analog simulation, that can only be performed through accurate SOI active components models. We are interested here in linear operation modeling; we test new methods for small-signal parameters determination, suitable for a conventional MOSFET high-frequency model and somewhat inspired from methods applied to MESFET technology. In this paper, we deal mainly with extrinsic parameters, for which we obtain reliable estimation on a large frequency range. Our finally adopted extraction procedure takes closely into account the model topology, which reflects the device electrical behavior. We completely describe the procedure, from measurements to the extracted equivalent circuit simulation, without having to optimize parameters and with a straightforward extrinsic elements extraction.

Notes: Abstract We derive an equation for the average length-scale in a turbulent flow from a simple physical model. This is a tensorial length-scale. We use as a model the evolution of a blob of turbulent kinetic energy under the influence of production, dissipation, and transport, as well as distortion by the mean motion. A single length-scale is defined which is biased toward the smallest of the scales in the various directions. Constants are estimated by consideration of homogeneous decay. Preliminary computations are carried out in a mixing layer and a two-dimensional jet, using the new length-scale equation and the equation for the turbulent kinetic energy. The results are compared with data and with the predictions of the classical k-epsilon equations; the new results are quite satisfactory. In particular, the plane jet/round jet anomaly is approximately resolved.

Notes: Abstract The Kyoto Protocol requires the U.S.to reduce the rate of emissions of six greenhousegases (GHG) to 93% of their 1990 rate and to achievethis target by the 2008 to 2012 commitment period. This study assesses the magnitude of change needed inthe U.S. economy and, specifically, in the U.S. energysector, to achieve and maintain the target establishedby the Kyoto Protocol. A simple carbon (C)emissions-energy model is explained in this analysisusing four key variables. Current and future trendsin C emissions are explained by: the carbon/energy(C/E) ratio, Gross Domestic Product growth, energyprices and an energy trend variable. Potential GHGmitigation policy actions affect C emissionsindirectly by affecting at least one of these keyvariables. The analysis concludes that reducingfossil energy use in the U.S. to meet the Kyoto GHGemissions reduction target would be very costly. Technological progress that reduces C emissions wouldnot be fully sufficient without prematurely abandoningproductive capital equipment. Energy price increasesof about 14% per year, or declines in economic growthof almost 5% per year, could reduce energy demand andassociated C emissions enough to achieve the terms ofthe Kyoto Protocol.

Notes: Abstract Poor knowledge of links between desertification and globalclimate change is limiting funding from the Global Environment Facility foranti-desertification projects and realization of synergies between theConvention to Combat Desertification (CCD) and the FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (FCCC). Greater convergence betweenresearch in the two fields could overcome these limitations, improve ourknowledge of desertification, and benefit four areas of global climate changestudies: mitigation assessment; accounting for land cover change in thecarbon budget; land surface-atmosphere interactions; and climate changeimpact forecasting. Convergence would be assisted if desertification weretreated more as a special case in dry areas of the global process of landdegradation, and stimulated by: (a) closer cooperation between the FCCCand CCD; (b) better informal networking between desertification and globalclimate change scientists, e.g. within the framework of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Both strategies wouldbe facilitated if the FCCC and CCD requested the IPCC to provide ascientific framework for realizing the synergies between them.

Notes: Abstract Climate change has been presented as a likely trigger formigration of people, especially in dryland areas of less developed countries.The underlying research questions focus on the strength of adaptationcapacity of subsistence farmers in Northern Ethiopia, and evaluate historicalexperiences gained from drought-induced migration. Through a survey of104 peasants who had to migrant due to persistent drought, vulnerabilityto climate change has shown to be a complex issue, including themultiplicity of factors comprising a household environment. Still, to bevulnerable does not make someone a potential climate migrant, as peoplein marginal regions have developed a great variety of adaptationmechanisms, which strengthen their ability to cope with both, slow climaticchanges and extreme climatic events.

Notes: Abstract In most soils, formation and emissions of N2O to the atmosphere are enhanced by an increase in available mineral nitrogen (N) through increased rates of nitrification and denitrification. Therefore, addition of N, whether in the form of organic or inorganic compounds eventually leads to enhanced N2O emissions. Global N2O emissions from agricultural systems have previously been related primarily to fertilizer N input from synthetic sources. Little attention has been paid to N input from other N sources or to the N2O produced from N that has moved through agricultural systems. In a new methodology used to estimate N2O emissions on the country or regional scale, that is briefly described in this paper, the anthropogenic N input data used include synthetic fertilizer, animal waste (feces and urine) used as fertilizer, N derived from enhanced biological N-fixation through N2 fixing crops and crop residue returned to the field. Using FAO database information which includes data on synthetic fertilizer consumption, live animal production and crop production and estimates of N input from recycling of animal and crop N, estimates of total N into Asian agricultural systems and resulting N2O emissions are described over the time period 1961 through 1994. During this time the quantity and relative amounts of different types of materials applied to agricultural soils in Asia as nitrogen (N) fertilizer have changed dramatically. In 1961, using the earliest entry from the FAO database, of the approximately 15.7 Tg of fertilizer N applied to agricultural fields 2.1 Tg N (13.5% of total N applied) was from synthetic sources, approximately 6.9 Tg N from animal wastes, 1.7 Tg N from biological N-fixation, and another 5 Tg N from reutilization of crop residue. In 1994, 40.2 Tg from synthetic fertilizer N (57.8% of total), 14.2 Tg from animal wastes, 2.5 Tg from biological N-fixation and 12.6 Tg from crop residue totalling 69.5 Tg N were utilized within agricultural soils in all Asian countries. The increases in N utilization have increased the emission of nitrous oxide from agricultural systems. Estimated N2O from agricultural systems in Asia increased from about 0.8 Tg N2O-N in 1961 to about 2.1 in 1994. The period of time when increases in N input and resulting N2O emissions were greatest was during 1970–1990. This evaluation of N input into Asian agricultural systems and the resulting N2O emissions demonstrates the large change in global agriculture that has occurred in recent decades. Because of the increased need for food production increases in N input are likely. Although the rate of increase of N input and N2O emissions during the 1990s appears to have declined, we ask if this slowed rate of increase is a general long term trend or if global food production pressures will tend to accelerate N input demand and resulting N2O emissions as we move into the 21st century.

Notes: Abstract A computer simulation model was developed for predicting trace gas emissions from agricultural ecosystems. The denitrification-decomposition (DNDC) model consists of two components. The first component, consisting of the soil climate, crop growth, and decomposition submodels, predicts soil temperature, moisture, pH, Eh, and substrate concentration profiles based on ecological drivers (e.g., climate, soil, vegetation, and anthropogenic activity). The second component, consisting of the nitrification, denitrification, and fermentation submodels, predicts NH3, NO, N2O, and CH4 fluxes based on the soil environmental variables. Classical laws of physics, chemistry, or biology or empirical equations generated from laboratory observations were used in the model to parameterize each specific reaction. The entire model links trace gas emissions to basic ecological drivers. Through validation against data sets of NO, N2O, CH4, and NH3 emissions measured at four agricultural sites, the model showed its ability to capture patterns and magnitudes of trace gas emissions.

Notes: Abstract This paper presents the results of modelsimulations to evaluate drainage designparameters for the Fourth Drainage Project(FDP), Punjab, Pakistan. The SWAP model wasapplied to compute the effects of landdrainage (12 combinations of drain depthand spacing) on soil moisture conditions inthe root zone and their effect on cropyield and soil salinization. For theconditions considered, the selection ofdrain depth is found to be more criticalthan that of drain spacing. Deeper drainsperform technically better in relation tocrop growth and soil salinization. Theoptimum drain depth for the multiplecropping system of the FDP-area was foundto be 2.2 m. This drain depth will producereasonably good crop yields at rather lowdrainage intensity while keeping the rootzone salinity within acceptable limits.This drainage design also maintained thegroundwater table depth below the root zonethroughout the growing season. The outcomeof this study reveals that the drainagedesign criteria applied for the FDP israther conservative with high drainageintensity. The FDP-area can effectively bedrained with a 25 percent lower drainageintensity (q drain/Δh)provided no operational or maintenanceconstraints are present. However, the finaldecision on the optimum combination ofdrain depth and drain spacing would requirea thorough economical analysis. Thenon-steady state approach proved successfulin analyzing the complex interactionsbetween irrigation and drainage components.It is a valuable tool to optimize thedesign of drainage systems against cropyields and soil salinization.

Notes: Abstract We review several techniques used to retrieve rotational parameters from observations. The spin period of a dozen of comets retrieved with these techniques are summarized. We describe how the spin period of comet Hale-Bopp (C/1995 O1) has been calculated with a high accuracy (11.30–11.34 h). Although several authors converged to a spin axis orientation at (α,δ) = (275 ± 15°, -55 ± 5°), detailed studies indicate that the dust jets morphology in 1996–1997 may be incompatible with this orientation. Comet 19P/Borrelly has been recently observed by the Deep Space 1 spacecraft. At the same time, its spin axis orientation and period have been determined by several authors to be respectively (α,δ) = (225 ± 15°, -10 ± 10°)and 26h. These two comets are likely to be in (or close to) a principal axis spin state. We discuss new modeling of the spin state of comet 46P/Wirtanen, the target of the Rosetta mission. The model involves a three-dimensional shape and thermal model, from which the torque of the non gravitational force is calculated at each time step. The moments of inertia are computed for each irregular shape. The results from numerical integrations show that this comet can remain in a principal axis spin state during more than 10 orbits if the spin period does not get above∼6 h. If the spin period increases, its nucleus gets rapidly into excited spin states. It shows that even small and very active short-period comets are not necessarily in non principal axis spin states. In the last section, the consequences of recent observations and modeling of the rotational parameters of comet nuclei are discussed, and unsolved problems are presented.

Notes: Abstract This article describes investigationsinto the effects of climate change on flow regimes oftwenty-five catchments (from 6 to 1293 km2) incentral Sweden. Hydrological responses of fifteenhypothetical climate change scenarios (e.g.combinations of ΔT = +1, +2 and +4 °C andΔP = 0, ± 10%, ± 20%) were simulated by a conceptual monthly water balance model. The results suggest thatall the hypothetical climate change scenarios wouldcause major decreases in winter snow accumulation.Significant increase of winter flow and decrease ofspring and summer runoff were resulted from mostscenarios. Attendant changes in actualevapotranspiration were also examined for all climatechange scenarios. Despite the changes in seasonaldistribution of evapotranspiration, the change inannual total evapotranspiration was relatively smallwith the maximum change of 23% compared with the 76%for mean annual snow water equivalent changes and 52%for mean annual runoff changes. Such hydrologicresults would have significant implications on futurewater resources design and management.

Notes: Abstract In this manuscript we describe an introductory astronomy course for undergraduate students in which we moved from the large-lecture format to one in which students were immersed in a technologically-rich, inquiry-based, participatory learning environment. Specifically, undergraduate students used 3-D modeling tools to construct virtual reality models of the solar system, and in the process, build rich understandings of various astronomical phenomena. For this study, primarily naturalistic inquiry was used to gain a holistic view of this semester-long course. These data are presented as two case studies focusing on: (1) the role of the teacher in this participatory learning environment; (2) the particular dynamics that formed in each group; (3) the modeling process; (4) the resources used, specifically student-developed inscriptions; and (5) the role of technology and whether learning the technology interfered with learning astronomy. Results indicated that VR can be used effectively in regular undergraduate university courses as a tool through which students can develop rich understandings of various astronomical phenomena.

Notes: Abstract The chemical composition of individual particles 〉0.2 μm sampled duringthe MAST-experiment wereanalysed by SEM-EDX, in combination with multivariatetechniques. The objective of this experiment was toidentify the mechanisms responsible for themodification of marine stratocumulus clouds byemissions from ships and in a wider sense to provideinformation on the global processes involved inatmospheric modification of cloud albedo. Aerosolswere examined under different MBL pollution levels(clean, intermediately polluted and moderatelypolluted) in five different reservoirs: backgroundbelow-cloud and above-cloud aerosol; background clouddroplet residual particles; below-cloud ship plumeaerosol and ship track cloud droplet residualparticles.In this study a relation was provided between theaerosol emitted from the ship's stack to an effect incloud. Additionally, a large fraction of the ambientaerosol was found to be composed of organic materialor other compounds, consisting of low Z-elements,associated with chlorine. Their number fraction waslargest in clean marine boundary layers, and decreasedwith increasing pollution levels. The fraction of`transformed sea salt' (Na, Cl, S), on the other hand,increased with the pollution level in the MBL. Only20% of the particles fell within the detectable rangeof the analysis.

Notes: Abstract A computer model comprising light reactions in PS II and PS I, electron-proton transport reactions in mesophyll and bundle sheath chloroplasts, all enzymatic reactions and most of the known regulatory functions of NADP-ME type C4 photosynthesis has been developed as a system of differential budget equations for intermediate compounds. Rate-equations were designed on principles of multisubstrate-multiproduct enzyme kinetics. Some of the 275 constants needed (ΔG0′ and K m values) were available from literature and others (V m) were estimated from reported rates and pool sizes. The model provided good simulations for rates of photosynthesis and pool sizes of intermediates under varying light, CO2 and O2. A basic novelty of the model is coupling of NADPH production via NADP-ME with ATP production and regulation of the C3 cycle in bundle sheath chloroplasts. The functional range of the ATP/NADPH ratio in bundle sheath chloroplasts extends from 1.5 to 2.1, being energetically most efficient around 2. In the presence of such stoichiometry, the CO2 concentrating function can be explained on the basis of two processes: (a) extra ATP consumption for starch and protein synthesis in bundle sheath leads to a faster NADPH and CO2 import compared with CO2 fixation in bundle sheath, and (b) the residual photorespiratory activity consumes RuBP by oxygenation, NADPH and ATP and causes the imported CO2 to accumulate in bundle sheath cells. As a wider application, the model may be used for predicting results of genetic engineering of plants.

Notes: Abstract The history of fruit thinning is reviewed, beginning with hand removalof fruits, the effects upon subsequent flowering, and current attemptsto develop mechanical methods of fruit removal. Early experiments withcaustic compounds and growth regulators and their subsequent developmentas commercial practices are discussed, as well as the modes of action ofgrowth regulators. Brief reviews of methods of application, factorsaffecting response, modeling to improve efficiency, and the economicvalue of thinning to the grower are also included.

Notes: Abstract Root exudation has been hypothesized as one possible mechanism that may lead to increased inputs of organic C into the soil under elevated atmospheric CO2, which could lead to greater long-term soil C storage. In this study, we analyzed exudation of dissolved organic C from the roots of seedlings of the N-fixing tree Robinia pseudoacacia L. in a full factorial design with 2 CO2 (35.0 and 70.0 Pa) × 2 temperature (26° and 30 °C during the day) × 2 N fertilizer (0 and 10.0 mM N concentration) levels. We also analyzed the decomposition rates of root exudate to estimate gross rates of exudation. Elevated CO2 did not affect root exudation of organic C. A 4 °C increase in temperature and N fertilization did, however, significantly increase organic C exudation rates. Approximately 60% of the exudate decomposed relatively rapidly, with a turnover rate of less than one day, while the remaining 40% decomposed more slowly. These results suggest that warmer climates, as predicted for the next century, may accelerate root exudation of organic C, which will probably stimulate rapid C cycling and may make a minor contribution to intermediate to more long-term soil C storage. However, as these losses to root exudation did not exceed 1.2% of the net C fixed by Robinia pseudoacacia, root exudation of organic C appears to have little potential to contribute to long-term soil C sequestration.

Notes: Abstract The prediction that litter quality, and hence litter decomposition rates, would be reduced when plants are grown in a CO2-enriched atmosphere has been based on the observation that foliar N concentrations usually are lower in elevated [CO2]. The implicit assumption is that the N concentration in leaf litter reflects the N concentration in green leaves. Here we evaluate that assumption by exploring whether the process of seasonal nutrient resorption is different in CO2-enriched plants. Nitrogen resorption was studied in two species of maple trees (Acer rubrum L. and A. saccharum Marsh.), which were planted in unfertilized soil and grown in open-top chambers with ambient or elevated [CO2] in combination with ambient or elevated temperature. In the second growing season, prior to autumn senescence, individual leaves were collected and analyzed for N and dry matter content. Other leaves at the same and an adjacent node were collected for analysis as they senesced and abscised. This data set was augmented with litter samples from the first growing season and with green leaves and leaf litter collected from white oak (Quercus alba L.) saplings grown in ambient and elevated [CO2] in open-top chambers. In chambers maintained at ambient temperature, CO2 enrichment reduced green leaf N concentrations by 25% in A. rubrum and 19% in A. saccharum. CO2 enrichment did not significantly reduce resorption efficiency so the N concentration also was reduced in litter. There were, however, few effects of [CO2] on N dynamics in these leaves; differences in N concentration usually were the result of increased dry matter content of leaves. The effects of elevated [CO2] on litter N are inherently more difficult to detect than differences in green leaves because factors that affect senescence and resorption increase variability. This is especially so when other environmental factors cause a disruption in the normal progress of resorption, such as in the first year when warming delayed senescence until leaves were killed by an early frost. The results of this experiment support the approach used in ecosystem models in which resorption efficiency is constant in ambient and elevated [CO2], but the results also indicate that other factors can alter resorption efficiency.

Notes: Abstract We describe a range of anthropogenic stressors thatimpact seabirds, review the effects of these stressorson individuals and populations and discuss the roleand value of seabirds as monitors of marine ecosystemhealth. Stressors described are restricted to thosewhich affect seabirds directly or indirectly throughthe marine environment; we have not dealt withterrestrially based stressors such as introducedmammalian predators or loss of habitat, which canpotentially affect seabirds whilst breeding. Wediscuss three broad categories of stress in seabirds.Marine pollutants (including biologicallynon-essential heavy metals, oil, organic pesticidesand polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and plastics),industrial fisheries (further divided into the effectsof depletion of prey stocks and direct mortality), andclimate change. Additionally we highlight the role ofseabirds as monitors of marine ecosystem health,taking the example of long-term mercury contaminationas a case study. We conclude that seabirds are exposedto an increasing array of potential stressors, andthat the impact of a particular source of stress onseabirds varies markedly between species in relationto foraging and breeding ecology. The most seriousthreat to seabirds is direct mortality of adultsresulting from industrial and commercial fishingactivities. In some cases this is a significant threatto individual populations or even entire species.

Notes: Abstract Northern river ecosystems worldwide are under increasing environmental stress from degrading developments that influence water quality and associated ecological integrity. In particular, contaminant-related threats to these systems are rising from enhanced industrial and municipal effluent discharges along with elevated non-point source inputs related to land-use activities such as forestry, agriculture, mining and long-range atmospheric transport. In this regard, the contaminants program of the Northern River Basins Study (NRBS) in western Canada identified key contaminant sources to the Athabasca, Slave and Peace river basins (particularly related to pulp-mill developments) and assessed their environmental fate and distribution in water and sediments. The study also developed and employed new analytical approaches and generated improved models to predict contaminant transport and fate in the aquatic environment and related food webs. Consequently the study focused on those contaminant families identified in characterization studies as arising from key point- and non-point sources within the basins or as being of greatest toxicological significance. These included resin acids, polychlorinated dioxins and furans, polychlorinated biphenyls, chlorinated phenolics, polyaromatic hydrocarbons and selected heavy metals such as mercury. Low or non-detectable concentrations of a number of contaminant groups were found in the ambient water phase including chlorinated phenolics, some chlorinated dioxins and furans and some resin acids. For both suspended and depositional sediments, significant declines were observed over the study period for the major chlorinated contaminant groups tested, correlating directly with the implementation of improved effluent treatment in many of the pulp mills located in the basins. In general, the environmental levels of chlorinated organic and metal contaminants in water or sediments were low and within Canadian health or environmental guidelines. It is hoped that the approaches used and lessons learned from the NRBS will be of use to others assessing contaminant and multiple stressor issues in other large river ecosystems.

Notes: Abstract Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide CO2 have a beneficial effect on crop production that would tend to offset some of the economic losses that might be generated in some areas by the climatic effects of atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Previous estimates of the economic benefits of CO2 fertilization on world crop production, however, were based on the assumption that percent changes in supply are equal to percent changes in yield. This assumption is not valid, however, because it confounds changes in supply with changes in quantity supplied. This error leads to an overestimation of the real economic benefits of CO2 fertilization by 61–166%. The effects of CO2 fertilization on crop production, therefore, will reduce some of the potential damages caused by the climatic impacts of greenhouse gases, but by significantly less than that indicated in earlier research.

Notes: Abstract This paper demonstrates the ability of Polish agriculture to adapt to predicted climate change according to GISS and GFDL scenarios. Both climate-change scenarios will significantly affect farming conditions in Poland through water deficit, shifts in planting and harvesting seasons, changes in crop yields and crop structure. Neither scenario seems to endanger the self-sufficiency of Poland as long as preventative measures are taken. Moreover, the realization of GISS creates the possibility of a surplus in production. It must be emphasized that regardless of the scenario, the adaptation of agriculture to an expected climate change cannot be handled by the farming community itself.

Notes: Abstract A large part of the Central Asian region is located within the inner flow of the Aral Sea basin. The water resources are formed from renewed superficial and underground waters of natural origin, and also with returnable waters. The intensive increase of water intake, that took place in the second half of the twentieth century caused practically complete assimilation of the river inflow. That was the main reason for the Aral Sea crisis. On the basis of the analysis of long periodical rows of observation by meterological and hydrological stations, the estimation of regional water resources and calculations of changes of some components of the hydrological cycle due to the expected climate changes are presented. Measures for adaptation in the southern part of the Aral Sea region are considered.

Notes: Abstract It is indicated that up to the year 2030, the annual average temperatures in China will increase by 0.88 to 1.2°C, with increments in the south less than in the north. Annual average precipitation would raise slightly, but the increment could be 4% in northeastern China. The increment of annual mean runoff could rise over 6% in the northeastern area, and decrease in the other regions 1.4 to 10.5%. The increased water shortage due to climate change could achieve 160 to 5090 million m3 in some areas of China. Financial loss due to the lack of water could reach 1300 million yuan, and up to 4400 million yuan in serious drought years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area.

Notes: Abstract The International Life SciencesInstitute (ILSI) Risk Science Institute (RSI) convenedan expert panel of scientists to developrecommendations for a comprehensive monitoring programfor the Croton and Catskill/Delaware watersheds, whichprovide drinking water to New York City's residents. This effort was conducted as part of efforts topreserve and enhance the quality of New York City'sreservoir system through a watershed protectionprogram. The panel developed recommendations for astrategic framework on which to construct a monitoringprogram. As part of this activity, the paneldetermined whether existing monitoring activities weredeficient and, where activities were deficient, thepanel developed recommendations for additionalinformation that should be collected.The panel recommended the development and use of anintegrated approach to watershed monitoring, whichdraws on modeling, risk-based planning and analysis,statistical sampling and design, and basic compliancemonitoring. The approach should be designed toprovide an assessment of natural and anthropogenicsources of stress to the system as well as anassessment of water quality trends in response tostresses acting in concert, both over the long termand over the five-year New York City Memorandum ofAgreement (MOA) assessment time frame. It should alsoprovide an assessment of the human health andenvironmental risks posed by a variety of stressors,and the impact of management actions implemented toameliorate stressors.

Notes: Abstract Over the past two centuries progressive anthropogenicperturbations to natural, boreal forest-climateinteractions have contributed increasingly to awidespread transition from coniferous to deciduouslandscapes. This transition is associated withchanges, at boreal latitudes, in temperature,photosynthetic activity, atmospheric CO2 andspring snow cover. These signals convey thediminished capacity of boreal landscapes to store andcycle materials and energy.

Notes: Abstract To assess the impact of acid deposition on forestedloess and clay soils in the Netherlands, changes inbase saturation and soil solution concentrations weresimulated with the dynamic soil acidification modelReSAM for 38 loess soils and 16 clay soils. Theselected locations represent the range in geographicalposition and diversity in parent material occurring inforested loess and clay soils in the Netherlands. Twodeposition scenarios were used for the period1992–2050: a business as usual scenario (BAU) and ascenario in which deposition was reduced according topresent Dutch policy plans (MV-3). A comparison ofsimulated and measured soil solution concentrationsand base saturation in 1992/1993 showed that the modelsimulated concentrations and base saturation in theloess soils quite good. However, the model tended tooverestimate acidification in the top (0–10 cm) of theclay soils. Despite the reasonable agreement betweenmeasured and simulated data some uncertainty in thevalidity of the model predictions remains because timetrends to validate the model were not available. Themodel predicted a small but ongoing acidificationduring the BAU scenario in the loess soils asindicated by a decline in median base saturation andpH in the topsoil in 2050. Present policy plans (MV-3)lead to a slight recovery of the base saturation in2050 and a decline in Al concentrations. In the claysoils a strong decline in base saturation is simulatedin the topsoil, whereas an increase in base saturationis predicted for the subsoil.

Notes: Abstract Adaptation in response to anthropogenic climate change seeks to maintain viability by maximising benefits and minimising losses. It is necessary because some climatic change is now inevitable, despite the international focus on mitigation measures. Indeed, the measures agreed at Kyoto would by themselves result in only a small reduction in the climate changes to be expected over the next century. Discussion of the expected changes and possible impacts leads to the following conclusions regarding climate change scenarios in relation to impacts and adaptation: • Climate change in the foreseeable future will not be some new stable "equilibrium" climate, but rather an ongoing "transient" process; • Climate change predictions relevant to impacts on most sectors and ecosystems are still highly uncertain; • There is a need for a greater focus on developing countries and tropical regions, and on relevant key variables, including the magnitude and frequency of extreme events; • The focus should shift from single predictions, or extreme ranges of uncertainty, to risk assessment; • Thresholds critical to impacted sectors and ecosystems should be identified, and expressed as functions of climatic variables; • Planned adaptations will be necessary to cope with multiple stresses, including those due to non-climatic changes; • A major task of adaptation science is to identify the limits of adaptation, i.e., to identify "dangerous levels of greenhouse gases" beyond which adaptation becomes impractical or prohibitively expensive.

Notes: Abstract Two decades of developing relevant legal and institutional regimes for the sustainable and nondestructive use of natural resources have framed Costa Rica's pioneer approach to mitigate climate change and conserve its rich biological diversity. This policy framework provides an appropriate context for the actual and proposed development of market instruments designed to attract capital investments for carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation, and allows the establishment of mechanisms to use those funds to compensate owners for the environmental services provided by their land. As a developing economy. Costa Rica is striving to internalize the benefits from the environmental services it offers, as a cornerstone of its sustainable development strategy.

Notes: Abstract If current trends continue, human activities will drastically alter most of the planet's remaining natural ecosystems and their composite biota within a few decades. Compounding the impacts on biodiversity from deleterious management practices is climate variability and change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that there is ample evidence to suggest climate change is likely to result in significant impacts on biological diversity. These impacts are likely to be exacerbated by the secondary effects of climate change such as changes in the occurrence of wildfire, insect outbreaks and similar disturbances. Current changes in climate are very different from those of the past due to their rate and magnitude, the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and because highly modified landscapes and an array of threatening processes limit the ability of terrestrial ecosystems and species to respond to changed conditions. One of the primary human adaptation option for conserving biodiversity is considered to be changes in management. The complex and overarching nature of climate change issues emphasises the need for greatly enhanced cooperation between scientists, policy makers, industry and the community to better understand key interactions and identify options for adaptation. A key challenge is to identify opportunities that facilitate sustainable development by making use of existing technologies and developing policies that enhance the resilience of climate-sensitive sectors. Measures to enhance the resilience of biodiversity must be considered in all of these activities if many ecosystem services essential to humanity are to be sustained. New institutional arrangements appear necessary at the regional and national level to ensure that policy initiatives and research directed at assessing and mitigating the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change are complementary and undertaken strategically and cost-effectively. Policy implementation at the national level to meet responsibilities arising from the UNFCCC (e.g., the Kyoto Protocol) and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity require greater coordination and integration between economic sectors, since many primary drivers of biodiversity loss and vulnerability are influenced at this level. A case study from the Australian continent is used to illustrate several key issues and discuss a basis for reform, including recommendations for facilitating adaptation to climate variability and change.

Notes: Abstract Global climate change is likely to have a range of consequences for human health as a result of disturbance or weakening of the biosphere's natural or human-managed life support systems. The full range of potential human health impacts of global climate change is diverse and would be distributed differentially spatially and over time. Changes in the mortality toll of heatwaves and changes in the distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases may occur early. The public health consequences of sea level rise and of regional changes in agricultural productivity may not occur (or become apparent) for several decades. Vulnerability is a measure of both sensitivity to climate change and the ability to adapt in anticipation of, or in response to, its impacts. The basic modes of adaptation to climate-induced health hazards are biological, behavioural and social. Adaptation can be undertaken at the individual, community and whole-population levels. Adaptive strategies should not introduce new health hazards. Enhancement of the acknowledged public health infrastructure and intervention programmes is essential to reduce vulnerability to the health impacts of climate change. In the longer-term, fundamental improvements in the social and material conditions of life and in the reduction of inequalities within and between populations are required for sustained reduction in vulnerability to environmental health hazards.

Notes: Abstract A mechanism has been established to improve integration of international climate-related programmes. Known as the Climate Agenda it outlines a programme, that in a cost-effective way, responds to national obligations to respond to international agreements as well as their national needs for social and economic development. The paper briefly describes the Climate Agenda and the incorporation within it of studies of climate impact assessments and response strategies to reduce vulnerability. The need for increased emphasis on climate impact assessment and for the development of effective adaptation measures is emphasised following the elaboration of a Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). UNEP's efforts to identify national programmes contributing to the Climate Agenda are described. The response from developing countries has, however, been very disappointing, even from countries where we know work is ongoing through funding by GEF or US Country Studies Program and other bilateral programmes. Initial compilation of information available so far shows that many developed countries are putting a lot into the area of impact assessment of not just climate change, but also climate variability. There remain some research gaps, especially in the area of assessment of climate impacts on ecosystems, hydrological systems, etc. Considerable efforts are presently being directed at reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases and in the case of developing countries, most efforts are being directed towards completing national communications and providing baseline data for future studies. The paper refers to early activities by UNEP in cooperation with other international organizations to undertake integrated assessments of the impacts of climate change on important socio-economic sectors and the later incorporation of lessons learned into the IPCC Guidelines for Assessing Impacts of Climate Change. Later sections outline the development of a handbook on methods for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies as a practical approach to national assessments and the development of appropriate and cost-effective response to climate change. The initiation of a GEF-funded project to apply the methods contained in the handbook and improve the results based on national studies is also described for both developed and developing countries. Working in collaboration with a team of international experts under the coordination of the Institute of Environmental Studies at Vrije University (Amsterdam), the goal of this ongoing project is to develop a valuable methodological tool that Parties to the UNFCCC may apply to develop national climate change impact and adaptation assessments. Development of these guidelines was linked to a series of country studies in Antigua and Barbuda, Estonia, Cameroon and Pakistan funded under a UNEP/GEF project. The application of the first version of the UNEP Handbook by national study teams in these four countries is making valuable technical and practical contributions and will ensure that the next version of the Handbook will be a more useful tool for experts in developing countries undertaking similar studies in the future. The methods contained in the Handbook are also the basis for similar assessments funded under bilateral development programmes in other countries. These and similar studies elsewhere are coordinated with the UNEP programme and will eventually aim to create reliable and comparable assessments, a compatible set of tools for such purpose and the identification of realistic adaptation options for incorporation into national planning for adapting to climate change. The paper also addresses how climate impact assessment and response strategies are undertaken as part of national enabling activities carried out in co-operation with UNEP.

Notes: Abstract This paper describes four global-change phenomena that are having major impacts on Amazonian forests. The first is accelerating deforestation and logging. Despite recent government initiatives to slow forest loss, deforestation rates in Brazilian Amazonia have increased from 1.1 million ha yr−1 in the early 1990s, to nearly 1.5 million ha yr−1 from 1992–1994, and to more than 1.9 million ha yr−1 from 1995–1998. Deforestation is also occurring rapidly in some other parts of the Amazon Basin, such as in Bolivia and Ecuador, while industrialized logging is increasing dramatically in the Guianas and central Amazonia. The second phenomenon is that patterns of forest loss and fragmentation are rapidly changing. In recent decades, large-scale deforestation has mainly occurred in the southern and eastern portions of the Amazon — in the Brazilian states of Pará, Maranhāo, Rondônia, Acre, and Mato Grosso, and in northern Bolivia. While rates of forest loss remain very high in these areas, the development of major new highways is providing direct conduits into the heart of the Amazon. If future trends follow past patterns, land-hungry settlers and loggers may largely bisect the forests of the Amazon Basin. The third phenomenon is that climatic variability is interacting with human land uses, creating additional impacts on forest ecosystems. The 1997/98 El Niño drought, for example, led to a major increase in forest burning, with wildfires raging out of control in the northern Amazonian state of Roraima and other locations. Logging operations, which create labyrinths of roads and tracks in forsts, are increasing fuel loads, desiccation and ignition sources in forest interiors. Forest fragmentation also increases fire susceptibility by creating dry, fire-prone forest edges. Finally, recent evidence suggests that intact Amazonian forests are a globally significant carbon sink, quite possibly caused by higher forest growth rates in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 fertilization. Evidence for a carbon sink comes from long-term forest mensuration plots, from whole-forest studies of carbon flux and from investigations of atmospheric CO2 and oxygen isotopes. Unfortunately, intact Amazonian forests are rapidly diminishing. Hence, not only is the destruction of these forests a major source of greenhouse gases, but it is reducing their intrinsic capacity to help buffer the rapid anthropogenic rise in CO2.

Notes: Abstract Many developing countries, especially in Africa, contribute only very small amounts to the world total of greenhouse gas emissions. For them, the reduction of such emissions is not a priority, and the more important issue is to find ways to reduce their vulnerability to the projected climate change which is being imposed upon them largely as a result of emissions from developed countries. This priority does not accord with the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions. This paper reports upon studies in Uganda designed to help in the development of a national adaptation strategy, and addresses the need to reconcile such a strategy with the global priority accorded to mitigation and with national economic development priorities. Some features of a national climate change adaptation strategy are identified and questions are raised about the need for an international regime to facilitate and support adaptation.

Notes: Abstract Climate change impacts on African human settlements arise from a number of climate change-related causes, notably sea level changes, impacts on water resources, extreme weather events, food security, increased health risks from vector home diseases, and temperature-related morbidity in urban environments. Some coastlines and river deltas of Africa have densely populated low-lying areas, which would be affected by a rise in sea level. Other coastal settlements will be subjected to increased coastal erosion. Recent flooding in East Africa highlighted the vulnerability of flood plain settlements and the need to develop adaptive strategies for extreme weather events management and mitigation. In the semi arid and arid zones many settlements are associated with inland drainage water sources. Increases in drought will enhance water supply related vulnerabilities. Inter-basin and international water transfers raise the need for adequate legal frameworks that ensure equity among participating nations. Similarly, water supply and irrigation reservoirs in seasonal river catchments might fail, leading to poor sanitation in urban areas as well as food shortage. Hydroelectric power generation could be restricted in drought periods, and where it is a major contributor to the energy budget, reduced power generation could lead to a multiplicity of other impacts. States are advised to develop other sources of renewable energy. Temperature changes will lead to altered distribution of disease vectors such as mosquitoes, making settlements currently free of vector borne diseases vulnerable. Rapid breeding of the housefly could create a menace associated with enteric disorders, especially in conditions of poor sanitation. The dry savannahs of Africa are projected as possible future food deficit areas. Recurrent crop failures would lead to transmigration into urban areas. Pastoralists are likely to undertake more trans-boundary migrations and probably come into conflict with settled communities. Adaptive measures will involve methods of coastal defences (where applicable), a critical review of the energy sector, both regionally and nationally, a rigorous adherence to city hygiene procedures, an informed agricultural industry that is capable of adapting to changing climate in terms of cropping strategies, and innovations in environment design to maximise human comfort at minimum energy expenditure. In the savannah and arid areas water resource management systems will be needed to optimise water resource use and interstate co-operation where such resources are shared. Climate change issues discussed here raise the need for state support for more research and education in impacts of climate change on human settlements in Africa.

Notes: Abstract We used a time series of satellite multispectral imagery for mapping and monitoring six classes of montane meadows arrayed along a moisture gradient (from hydric to mesic to xeric). We hypothesized that mesic meadows would support the highest species diversity of plants, birds, and butterflies because they are more moderate environments. We also hypothesized that mesic meadows would exhibit the greatest seasonal and interannual variability in spectral response across years. Field sampling in each of the meadow types was conducted for plants, birds, and butterflies in 1997 and 1998. Mesic meadows supported the highest plant species diversity, but there was no significant difference in bird or butterfly species diversity among meadow types. These data show that it may be easier to detect significant differences in more species rich taxa (e.g., plants) than taxa that are represented by fewer species (e.g., butterflies and birds). Mesic meadows also showed the greatest seasonal and interannual variability in spectral response. Given the rich biodiversity of mesic montane meadows and their sensitivity to variations in temperature and moisture, they may be important to monitor in the context of environmental change

Notes: Abstract Heat waves (periods of extremely hot summer weather) in the region of south Moravia are in the focus of this study. The introduced definition consists of three requirements imposed on the period that is considered a heat wave: at least three days with T MAX ≥30.0°C must be observed; the mean T MAX over the whole period is at least 30.0°C; and T MAX must not drop below 25.0°C. To compare the severity of the individual heat waves, various characteristics (duration, number of tropical days, peak temperature, cumulative temperature excess, precipitation amount) are examined. The heat wave index HWI is defined to express the severity of heat waves in the most comprehensive way. An extraordinary heat wave occurred in July and August 1994; it lasted more than a month at several stations, while the duration of a typical heat wave is only 4 - 7 days. The extremely long unbroken period of tropical days, and even of days with T MAX ≥32.0°C, represents the most distinct feature of the severe 1994 heat wave. With regard to heat wave characteristics, the summer temperature exceptionality of the early 1990s is indubitable.

Notes: Abstract Topology optimization design of continuum structures that can take account of stress and displacement constraints simultaneously is difficult to solve at present. The main obstacle lies in that, the explicit function expressions between topological variables and stress or displacement constraints can not be obtained using homogenization method or variable density method. Furthermore, large quantities of design variables in the problem make it hard to deal with by the formal mathematical programming approach. In this paper, a smooth model of topology optimization for continuum structures is established which has weight objective considering stress and displacement constraints based on the independent-continuous topological variable concept and mapping transformation method proposed by Sui Yunkang and Yang Deqing. Moreover, the approximate, explicit expressions are given between topological variables and stress or displacement constraints. The problem is well solved by using dual programming approach, and the proposed element deletion criterion implements the inversion of topology variables from the discrete to the continuous. Numerical examples verify the validity of proposed method.

Notes: Abstract Clinical trial simulation is the application of old technologies, e.g., Monte Carlo simulation, to a newproblem, that problem being how to maximize the information content obtained during the drugdevelopment process with an intent to have the greatest chance of “success” in a clinical trial. When the informationcontent of the drug is high, then simulation provides a method to synthesize that information into acoherent package that indicates the sponsor has good control over the pharmacology of the drug. Froma purely financial point of view, what simulation offers pharmaceutical companies is the possibility ofreducing the number of required studies, maximizing the chances for success in a clinical trial, andpossibly shortening development time; all outcomes which will reduce drug development costs. Thepurpose of this paper is to introduce clinical trial simulation to the reader by discussing its potential indrug development, to briefly review the literature, and to make recommendations and caveats regardingits use.

Notes: Abstract A closed CO2 and temperature-controlled, long-term chamber system has been developed and set up in a typical boreal forest of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) near the Mekrijärvi Research Station (62°47′N, 30°58′E, 145 m above sea level) belonging to the University of Joensuu, Finland. The main objectives of the experiment were to provide a means of assessing the medium to long-term effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (EC) and temperature (ET) on photosynthesis, respiration, growth, and biomass at the whole-tree level and to measure instantaneous whole-system CO2 exchange. The system consists of 16 chambers with individual facilities for controlling CO2 concentration, temperature, and the combination of the two. The chambers can provide a wide variety of climatic conditions that are similar to natural regimes. In this experiment the target CO2 concentration in the EC chambers was set at a fixed constant of 700 µmol mol−1 and the target air temperature in the ET chambers to track the ambient temperature but with a specified addition. Chamber performance was assessed on the base of recordings covering three consecutive years. The CO2 and temperature control in these closed chambers was in general accurate and reliable. CO2 concentration in the EC chambers was within 600–725 µmol mol−1 for 90 % of the exposure time during the "growing-season" (15 April – 15 September) and 625–725 µmol mol−1 for 88 % of the time in the "off-season" (16 September – 14 April), while temperatures in the chambers were within ±2.0 °C of the ambient or target temperature in the "growing season" and within ±3.0 °C in the "off season". There were still some significant chamber effects. Solar radiation in the chambers was reduced by 50–60 % for 82 % of the time in the "growing season" and 55–65 % for 78 % of the time in the "off season", and the relative humidity of the air was increased by 5–10 % for 72 % of the time in the "growing season" and 2–12 % for 91 % of the time in the "off season". The crown architecture and main phenophase of the trees were not modified significantly by enclosure in the chambers, but some physiological parameters changed significantly, e.g., the radiant energy-saturated photosynthesis rate, transpiration rate, maximum photochemical efficiency of photosystem 2, and chlorophyll content.

Notes: Abstract The adsorption of copper, chromate, and arsenate (CCA)onto iron-oxide-coated sand (IOCS) was examined insingle-metal and mixed-metal systems. Copper andarsenate were strongly adsorbed or formed inner-spheresurface complexes with the IOCS surface while chromatewas weakly adsorbed or formed an outer-sphere surfacecomplex with the IOCS surface. Copper adsorption byIOCS slightly increased in the presence of arsenatebut was not affected by the presence of chromate. Arsenate adsorption was not affected by the presenceof copper and/or chromate. Chromate adsorptionincreased in the presence of copper by the combinationof electrostatic effects and possiblesurface-copper-chromate ternary complex formation. The presence of arsenate significantly decreasedchromate adsorption due to competition for adsorptionsites and electrostatic effects. Using inner-spheresurface complexation constants for copper and arsenateand outer-sphere surface complexation constants forchromate, the triple-layer model (TLM) was successfulin describing adsorption of copper, chromate, andarsenate in single-solute systems. The modelindicated that each metal uses a different number ofadsorption sites. For CCA metals-IOCS systems, theequilibrium constants determined from single-solutesystems were not able to predict adsorption frommulti-solute systems. The TLM does not currentlyaccount for the heterogeneity of oxide surface sitesand the formation of ternary complexes and/or solidphases that do not exist in single-solute systems.

Notes: Abstract As a Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Israel is committed to develop a national inventory of anthropogenic emissions and removals of greenhouse gases. This paper presents the national inventory, which was developed according to the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The inventory includes the following sectors: energy, industrial processes, agriculture, forestry and waste. In this paper, only the inventory of the direct greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O) is presented. Emissions of these gases were converted to CO2 equivalent emissions by means of their Global Warming Potentials (a measure of the radiative effects of the different gases relatively to CO2). CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels to produce energy are by far the largest source (50 million tons in 1996). The contribution of methane emissions from decomposition of landfilled municipal solid waste is second in importance (8 million tons of CO2 equivalent). Industrial processes emit about 2 million tons CO2 equivalent, the most important process being cement production. Agricultural emissions amount to about 2 million tons CO2 equivalent and are due to soil emissions of nitrous oxide, methane emissions from enteric fermentation in domestic livestock and N2O and CH4 emissions from animal waste management. Although most forests in Israel are in a growing stage and atmospheric CO2 is therefore removed to form biomass, this removal amounts to 0.4 million tons only and is very small as compared to emissions from other sectors. On a per capita basis, Israel's emissions of CO2 from fuel combustion are not far behind those of some of the most developed countries.

Notes: Abstract Many governments use technology incentives as an important component of their greenhouse gas abatement strategies. These “carrots” are intended to encourage the initial diffusion of new, greenhouse-gas-emissions-reducing technologies, in contrast to carbon taxes and emissions trading which provide a “stick” designed to reduce emissions by increasing the price of high-emitting technologies for all users. Technology incentives appear attractive, but their record in practice is mixed and economic theory suggests that in the absence of market failures, they are inefficient compared to taxes and trading. This study uses an agent-based model of technology diffusion and exploratory modeling, a new technique for decision-making under conditions of extreme uncertainty, to examine the conditions under which technology incentives should be a key building block of robust climate change policies. We find that a combined strategy of carbon taxes and technology incentives, as opposed to carbon taxes alone, is the best approach to greenhouse gas emissions reductions if the social benefits of early adoption sufficiently exceed the private benefits. Such social benefits can occur when economic actors have a wide variety of cost/performance preferences for new technologies and either new technologies have increasing returns to scale or potential adopters can reduce their uncertainty about the performance of new technologies by querying the experience of other adopters. We find that if decision-makers hold even modest expectations that such social benefits are significant or that the impacts of climate change will turn out to be serious then technology incentive programs may be a promising hedge against the threat of climate change.

Notes: Abstract The volatile monoterpene analogs, 1,4-cineole and 1,8-cineole, have been identified as components of many plant essential oils, but relatively little is known about their biological activities. We compared the effects of 1,4- and 1,8-cineole on two weedy plant species by monitoring germination, mitosis, root and shoot growth, chlorophyll content, and photosynthetic efficiency. 1,4-Cineole severely inhibited growth of roots and shoots, causing cork-screw shaped morphological distortion, whereas 1,8-cineole caused a decrease in root growth and germination rates. Chlorophyll fluorescence data (yield and F v / F m) indicated that 1,4-cineole caused significantly higher stress (P ≤ 0.001) to photosynthesis when compared to controls. Mitotic index data showed that 1,8-cineole severely decreased (P ≤ 0.001) all stages of mitosis when compared with controls, while 1,4-cineole only caused a decrease in the prophase stage (P ≤ 0.05). Although superficially similar in structure, these two cineoles appear to have different modes of action.

Notes: Abstract The extraction of CsNO3 by the highly lipophilic calixarene-crown ether calix[4]arene-bis(t-octylbenzo-crown-6) (CABOBC6) in 1,2-dichloroethane (1,2-DCE) at 25 °C has been shown to be consistent with the formation of both 1 : 1 and 2 : 1 metal : ligand species. Variation of the aqueous-phase CsNO concentration up to 1.0 M and variation of the organic-phase calixarene concentration up to 0.10∼M was modeled by the program SXLSQI. Formation of the organic-phase species CsBNO3 (B = calixarene) was confirmed as well as the organic-phase dissociation products CsB+ and NO3 -. Good evidence for the 2 : 1 metal : ligand organic-phase species Cs2B(NO3)2 was also found, although the dissociation of nitrate from this complex was not observed. Binding of the second Cs+ cation by the ligand is approximately two orders of magnitude weaker than binding of the first Cs+ cation. The logarithm of the apparent partition ratio (log PB) of the calixarene between water and 1,2-DCE was found by 1H-NMR techniques to be 〉 5.1.

Notes: Abstract A new method of modeling of acute diffuse peritonitis was designed and tested. The method reproduces clinical picture of severe purulent process in the abdominal cavity with clear phasic dynamics and uniform (in their nature and extent of dissemination) pathological reactions, which improves reliability of experimental data.

Notes: Abstract A severe drought that took place in Spain and other Mediterranean countries in 1994 produced a dieback of Quercus ilex trees on south-facing conglomerates but only minor defoliations in trees on north-facing schists. The foliar Δ13C of damaged trees continued to decrease in the next two wet years probably indicating increasing water use efficiency, and their δ15N continued to increase indicating progressive ecosystem N saturation and/or N losses whereas there were no significant changes in undamaged trees. Pre-drought Δ13C values were reached in the third year after the drought, but δ15N values did not yet recover. Another co-occurring small tree, Phyllyrea latifolia, did not show any damage and gained dominance in the most affected stands.

Notes: Abstract Toxins from Bacillus thuringiensis have beenused as pest management tools for more than 50 years. The effect of these toxins depends on the quantityof Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) toxins ingestedby susceptible insects. Food ingestion is affected byCO2 concentration; plants grown in elevatedCO2 often have increased carbon/nitrogen ratios(C/N), resulting in greater leaf area consumption. Therefore, we hypothesized that elevated CO2would improve the efficacy of foliar applications ofB. thuringiensis. Cotton plants were grown ateither ambient (360–380 μl/l) or elevated CO2(900 μl/l). Groups of plants in both CO2treatments were exposed to low (30 mg/kg soil/week) orhigh (130 mg/kg soil/week) nitrogen (N) fertilizationlevels in a split plot design. The resulting plantswere assessed for N and carbon (C) contents. Leafdisks from the same plants were dipped in a Btsolution and then fed to Spodoptera exigua(Hübner), an insect species of considerableeconomic importance. Elevated CO2 significantlyreduced total N, and increased the C/N. Nitrogenfertilization significantly affected consumption byearly stadia larvae, larval weight gain, and relativegrowth rate (RGR). Interactions between CO2concentration and N fertilization level significantlyimpacted late stadia larval food consumption, andthrough differential Bt toxin intake, affectedduration of larval stage and mortality to the adultstage. We conclude that the elevated atmosphericCO2 concentrations expected in the next centurywill interact with commercial fertilization practicesto enhance the efficacy of B. thuringiensisformulations applied topically to crops. Theimplications for improved control are discussed.