ALBERT

Description: Studying the spatial variability of aerosol properties in the vicinity of clouds is essential to our ability to determine aerosol direct and indirect effects on climate. In this paper, we describe aerosol observations collected near cloud edges by an airborne Sun photometer over dark ocean waters. Focusing on case studies of aerosol measurements near eight cloud edges within a dissipating stratiform cloud deck, we compare the airborne Sun photometer observations to retrievals of aerosol properties using the standard Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol algorithm applied to 500-m-resolution MODIS spectral reflectances. We find a persistent, spectrally neutral increase in the Sun photometer-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) of up to 10% (0.015) in the 2-km distances closest to the edges of several distinct clouds. At midvisible wavelengths, the MODIS AOD retrievals show similar increases toward cloud edges, although a larger increase in AOD is found in the MODIS along-scan direction. At shortwave infrared (SWIR) wavelengths (1240-2130 nm), the MODIS-derived AOD increases near cloud edges are of the order of 0.03 and as such three times as large as the Sun photometer-derived values. Hence, in contrast to recently discussed bluing of aerosols near cloud edges, i.e., a preferential apparent increase in the visible reflectances of clear-sky pixels due to 3-D radiative transfer effects in the vicinity of clouds, we find a reddening of aerosols in the MODIS 500-m-resolution aerosol retrievals near clouds. This reddening in our study can be traced to larger absolute increases in SWIR reflectances when compared to visible reflectances near clouds, which in turn seem to stem from larger electronic cross talk in the MODIS SWIR bands (5-7). We note that the lack of bluing in our MODIS observations is likely due to the small geometric and optical thicknesses of the clouds considered.

Description: Overall Goals: 1. Build on the lightning jump framework set through previous studies. 2. Understand what typically occurs in nonsevere convection with respect to increases in lightning. 3. Ultimately develop a lightning jump algorithm for use on the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). 4 Lightning jump algorithm configurations were developed (2(sigma), 3(sigma), Threshold 10 and Threshold 8). 5 algorithms were tested on a population of 47 nonsevere and 38 severe thunderstorms. Results indicate that the 2(sigma) algorithm performed best over the entire thunderstorm sample set with a POD of 87%, a far of 35%, a CSI of 59% and a HSS of 75%.

Description: NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and the University of Alabama Huntsville are collaborating with the 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) to develop improved lightning prediction capabilities for the new C-band dual-polarimetric weather radar being acquired for use by 45WS and launch weather forecasters at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). In particular, these algorithms will focus on lightning onset, cessation and combined lightning-radar applications for convective winds assessment. Research using radar reflectivity (Z) data for prediction of lightning onset has been extensively discussed in the literature and subsequently applied by launch weather forecasters as it pertains to lightning nowcasting. Currently the forecasters apply a relatively straight forward but effective temperature-Z threshold algorithm for assessing the likelihood of lightning onset in a given storm. In addition, a layered VIL above the freezing level product is used as automated guidance for the onset of lightning. Only limited research and field work has been conducted on lightning cessation using Z and vertically-integrated Z for determining cessation. Though not used operationally vertically-integrated Z (basis for VIL) has recently shown promise as a tool for use in nowcasting lightning cessation. The work discussed herein leverages and expands upon these and similar reflectivity-threshold approaches via the application/addition of over two decades of polarimetric radar research focused on distinct multi-parameter radar signatures of ice/mixed-phase initiation and ice-crystal orientation in highly electrified convective clouds. Specifically, our approach is based on numerous previous studies that have observed repeatable patterns in the behavior of the vertical hydrometeor column as it relates to the temporal evolution of differential reflectivity and depolarization (manifested in either LDR or p(sub hv)), development of in-situ mixed and ice phase microphysics, electric fields, and ensuing lightning in the sub-tropical/tropical convection typical of the southeastern U.S., Maritime Continent, and southwestern Amazon. The polarimetric signatures detected in this setting provide a basis for automated 3-D detection of hydrometeor types in fuzzy logic hydrometeor identification algorithms (HID). Our working hypothesis is that improvement in lightning onset warning lead time and specificity for a given storm, relative to application of a Z-threshold algorithm, should arise as a consequence of the ability of dual-polarimetric radar to unambiguously detect and identify (through HID algorithms) the updraft elevation of rain-water cores above the freezing level and subsequent onset of drop freezing, riming, and robust mixed phase processes leading to significant charge separation and lightning. This type of algorithm, though dependent on the quality of the polarimetric data should be less susceptible to variable Z-calibration that can impact a given Z-threshold approach. To facilitate development of the algorithm while the 45WS dual-pol radar is in its current test stages and to evaluate the impact of polarimetric data quality (e.g., modified scan parameters and sampling) on the ensuing algorithms, we are using the ARMOR C-band dual-pol radar in Huntsville combined with N. Alabama LMA data and ARMOR HID algorithms [NCAR algorithm modified for application at C-band] in a testbed fashion. For lightning cessation we are revisiting the application of differential propagation phase variables for the monitoring of ice crystal alignment driven by in-cloud electric fields combined with metrics of ice water path (i.e., vertically integrated reflectivity). Importantly it should be noted that this approach is still very much a research topic and as such, we will explore operational applications that involve radar frequencies other than C-Band by using the UAH MAX X-band dual-pol radar in slow staring modes.

Description: Pre-launch algorithm development & post-launch product evaluation: The GPM GV paradigm moves beyond traditional direct validation/comparison activities by incorporating improved algorithm physics & model applications (end-to-end validation) in the validation process. Three approaches: 1) National Network (surface): Operational networks to identify and resolve first order discrepancies (e.g., bias) between satellite and ground-based precipitation estimates. 2) Physical Process (vertical column): Cloud system and microphysical studies geared toward testing and refinement of physically-based retrieval algorithms. 3) Integrated (4-dimensional): Integration of satellite precipitation products into coupled prediction models to evaluate strengths/limitations of satellite precipitation producers.

Description: Forecasters at the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) use observations from the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) wind tower network and the CCAFS (XMR) daily rawinsonde observations (RAOB) to issue and verify wind advisories and warnings for operations. These observations are also used by the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) in Houston, Texas and the Melbourne, Florida National Weather Service office to initialize their locally run mesoscale models. SMG also uses the observations to support shuttle landings at the KSC Shuttie Landing Facility. Due to impending budget cuts, some or all of the KSC/CCAFS wind towers on the east-central Florida mainland and the XMR RAOBs may be eliminated. The loss of these data may impact the forecast capability of the 45 WS and SMG. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to conduct a modeling study to determine how important these observations are to the accuracy of the model output used by the forecasters as input to their forecasts. To accomplish this, the AMU performed a sensitivity study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (NRF) model initialized with and without KSC/CCAFS wind tower and XMR RAOB observations. The AMU assessed the accuracy of model output by comparing peak wind forecasts with operationally significant wind advisory and warning criteria forecast by the 45 WS. To assess model performance when initialized with and without some of the wind tower and XMR RAOB observations, the AMU conducted a subjective analysis by displaying model wind forecasts graphically with the observations overlaid for comparison and they conducted an objective analysis by comparing the maximum peak wind forecast to the maximum peak wind observed within the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network. Data were collected for twelve warm season cases and eight cool season cases from June - September 2007 and November - January 2008, respectively. For each case chosen, the 45 WS must have issued a wind advisory or warning for the KSC/CCAFS area and the KSC/CCAFS wind towers must have recorded significant wind events, or winds greater than 18 kt.

Description: A sensitive laser spectrometer, named IRIS (water isotope ratio infrared spectrometer), was developed for the in situ detection of the isotopic composition of water vapour in the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere. Isotope ratio measurements can be used to quantify troposphere stratosphere exchange, and to study the water chemistry in the stratosphere. IRIS is based on the technique of optical feedback cavity-enhanced absorption spectroscopy. It uses a room temperature near-infrared laser, and does not require cryogenic cooling of laser or detectors. The instrument weighs 51 kg including its support structure. Airborne operation was demonstrated during three flights aboard the European M55-Geophysica stratospheric research aircraft, as part of the AMMA/SCOUT-03 (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis/Stratospheric Climate links with emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and lower stratosphere) campaign in Burkina Faso in August 2006. The data are discussed with reference to a Rayleigh distillation model. As expected, there is no indication of non-mass-dependent fractionation (also known as mass-independent fractionation) in the troposphere. Furthermore, improvements to the thermal management system and a move to a (cryogen-free) longer-wavelength laser source are discussed, which together should result in approximately two orders of magnitude improvement of the sensitivity

Description: The Georges Creek watershed (area 187.5 sq km) in western Maryland (United States) has experienced land use changes (〉17% of area) associated with surface mining of coal. The adjacent Savage River watershed (area 127.2 sq km) is unmined. Moments of flood frequency distributions indicated that climatic variability affected both watersheds similarly. Normalizing annual maximum flows by antecedent streamflow and causative precipitation helped identify trends in flooding response. Analysis of contemporary storm events using Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) stage III precipitation data showed that Georges Creek floods are characterized by higher peak runoff and a shorter centroid lag than Savage River floods, likely attributable to differences in current land use. Interestingly, Georges Creek produces only two thirds of the storm-flow volume as Savage River, apparently because of infiltration into abandoned deep mine workings and an associated transbasin diversion constructed circa 1900. Empirical trend analysis is thus complicated by both hydroclimatic variability and the legacy of deep mining in the basin.

Description: Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and forecasters from the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violating the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) (Krider et al. 2006; Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR), NASA/JSC 2004)). As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool that creates an anvil threat corridor graphic that can be overlaid on satellite imagery using the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS, Short and Wheeler, 2002). The tool helps forecasters estimate the locations of thunderstorm anvils at one, two, and three hours into the future. It has been used extensively in launch and landing operations by both the 45 WS and SMG. The Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) is now used along with MIDDS for weather analysis and display at SMG. In Phase I of this task, SMG tasked the AMU to transition the tool from MIDDS to AWIPS (Barrett et aI., 2007). For Phase II, SMG requested the AMU make the Anvil Forecast Tool in AWIPS more configurable by creating the capability to read model gridded data from user-defined model files instead of hard-coded files. An NWS local AWIPS application called AGRID was used to accomplish this. In addition, SMG needed to be able to define the pressure levels for the model data, instead of hard-coding the bottom level as 300 mb and the top level as 150 mb. This paper describes the initial development of the Anvil Forecast Tool for MIDDS, followed by the migration of the tool to AWIPS in Phase I. It then gives a detailed presentation of the Phase II improvements to the AWIPS tool.

Description: Satellite-derived aerosol data sets, such as those provided by NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments, are greatly improving our understanding of global aerosol optical depth (AOD). Yet, there are sampling issues. MODIS specific orbital geometry, convolved with the need to avoid bright surfaces (glint, desert, clouds, etc.), means that AOD can be under- or over-sampled in places. When deriving downstream products, such as daily or monthly gridded AOD, one must consider the spatial and temporal density of the measurements relative to the gradients of the true AOD. Additionally, retrieval confidence criteria should be considered. Averaged products are highly dependent on choices made for data aggregation and weighting, and sampling errors can be further propagated when deriving regional or global mean AOD. Different choices for aggregation and weighting result in estimates of regional and global means varying by 30% or more. The impacts of a particular averaging algorithm vary by region and surface type and can be shown to represent different tolerance for clouds and retrieval confidence.

Description: This study examines the nature of episodes of enhanced warm-season moisture flux into the Gulf of California. Both spatial structure and primary time scales of the fluxes are examined using the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis data for the period 1980-2001. The analysis approach consists of a compositing technique that is keyed on the low-level moisture fluxes into the Gulf of California. The results show that the fluxes have a rich spectrum of temporal variability, with periods of enhanced transport over the gulf linked to African easterly waves on subweekly (3-8 day) time scales, the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) at intraseasonal time scales (20-90 day), and intermediate (10-15 day) time-scale disturbances that appear to originate primarily in the Caribbean Sea-western Atlantic Ocean. In the case of the MJO, enhanced low-level westerlies and large-scale rising motion provide an environment that favors large-scale cyclonic development near the west coast of Central America that, over the course of about 2 weeks, expands northward along the coast eventually reaching the mouth of the Gulf of California where it acts to enhance the southerly moisture flux in that region. On a larger scale, the development includes a northward shift in the eastern Pacific ITCZ, enhanced precipitation over much of Mexico and the southwestern United States, and enhanced southerly/southeasterly fluxes from the Gulf of Mexico into Mexico and the southwestern and central United States. In the case of the easterly waves, the systems that reach Mexico appear to redevelop/reorganize on the Pacific coast and then move rapidly to the northwest to contribute to the moisture flux into the Gulf of California. The most intense fluxes into the gulf on these time scales appear to be synchronized with a midlatitude short-wave trough over the U.S. West Coast and enhanced low-level southerly fluxes over the U.S. Great Plains. The intermediate (10-15 day) time-scale systems have zonal wavelengths roughly twice that of the easterly waves, and their initiation appears to be linked to an extratropical U.S. East Coast ridge and associated northeasterly winds that extend well into the Caribbean Sea during their development phase. The short (3-8 day) and, to a lesser extent, the intermediate (10-15 day) time-scale fluxes tend to be enhanced when the convectively active phase of the MJO is situated over the Americas.

Description: A Validation Network (VN) prototype is currently underway that compares data from the Precipitation Radar (PR) instrument on NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite to similar measurements from the U.S. national network of operational weather radars. This prototype is being conducted as part of the ground validation activities of NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. GPM will carry a Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar instrument (DPR) with similar characteristics to the TRMM PR. The purpose of the VN is to identify and resolve significant discrepancies between the U.S. national network of ground radar (GR) observations and satellite observations. The ultimate goal of such comparisons is to understand and resolve the first order variability and bias of precipitation retrievals in different meteorological/hydrological regimes at large scales. This paper presents a description of, and results from, an improved algorithm for volume matching and comparison of PR and ground radar observations.

Description: During 15 August through 30 September 2006, ground and aircraft measurements were obtained from a multi-national group of students and scientists in Senegal. Key measurements were aimed at investigating and understanding precipitation processes, thermodynamic and dynamic environmental conditions, cloud, aerosol and microphysical processes and spaceborne sensors (TRMM, CloudSat/Calipso) validation. Ground and aircraft instruments include: ground based polarimetric radar, disdrometer measurements, a course and a high-density rain gauge network, surface chemical measurements, a 10 m flux tower, broadband IR, solar and microwave measurements, rawinsonde and radiosonde measurements, FA-20 dropsonde, in situ microphysics and cloud radar measurements. Highlights during SOP3 include ground and aircraft measurements of squall lines, African Easterly Waves (AEWs), Saharan Air Layer advances into Senegal, and aircraft measurements of AEWs -- including the perturbation that became Hurricane Isaac.

Description: Ice nuclei (IN) significantly affect clouds via supercooled droplets, that in turn modulate atmospheric radiation and thus climate change. Since the IN effect is relatively strong in stratiform clouds but weak in convective ones, the overall effect depends on the ratio of stratiform to convective cloud amount. In this paper, 10 years of TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite data are analyzed to confirm that stratiform precipitation fraction increases with increasing latitude, which implies that the IN effect is stronger at higher latitudes. To quantitatively evaluate the IN effect versus latitude, large-scale forcing data from ten field campaigns are used to drive a CRM (cloud-resolving model) to generate longterm cloud simulations. As revealed in the simulations, the increase in the net downward radiative flux at the TOA (top of the atmosphere) from doubling the current IN concentrations is larger at higher latitude, which is attributed to the meridional tendency in the stratiform precipitation fraction. Surface warming from doubling the IN concentrations, based on the radiative balance of the globe, is compared with that from anthropogenic COZ . It is found that the former effect is stronger than the latter in middle and high latitudes but not in the Tropics. With regard to the impact of IN on global warming, there are two factors to consider: the radiative effect from increasing the IN concentration and the increase in IN concentration itself. The former relies on cloud ensembles and thus varies mainly with latitude. In contrast, the latter relies on IN sources (e.g., the land surface distribution) and thus varies not only with latitude but also longitude. Global desertification and industrialization provide clues on the geographic variation of the increase in IN concentration since pre-industrial times. Thus, their effect on global warming can be inferred and then be compared with observations. A general match in geographic and seasonal variations between the inferred and observed warming suggests that IN may have contributed positively to global warming over the past decades, especially in middle and high latitudes.

Description: Recent modeling studies have revealed that ice crystal number concentration is one of the dominant factors in the effect of clouds on radiation. Since the ice crystal enhancement factor and ice nuclei concentration determine the concentration, they are both important in quantifying the contribution of increased ice nuclei to global warming. In this study, long-term cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations are compared with field observations to estimate the ice crystal enhancement factor in tropical and midlatitudinal clouds, respectively. It is found that the factor in tropical clouds is ~10 3-104 times larger than that of mid-latitudinal ones, which makes physical sense because entrainment and detrainment in the Tropics are much stronger than in middle latitudes. The effect of entrainment/detrainment on the enhancement factor, especially in tropical clouds, suggests that cloud microphysical parameterizations should be coupled with subgrid turbulence parameterizations within CRMs to obtain a more accurate depiction of cloud-radiative forcing.

Description: Ground-validation (GV) radar-rain products are often utilized for validation of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spaced-based rain estimates, and hence, quantitative evaluation of the GV radar-rain product error characteristics is vital. This study uses quality-controlled gauge data to compare with TRMM GV radar rain rates in an effort to provide such error characteristics. The results show that significant differences of concurrent radar-gauge rain rates exist at various time scales ranging from 5 min to 1 day, despite lower overall long-term bias. However, the differences between the radar area-averaged rain rates and gauge point rain rates cannot be explained as due to radar error only. The error variance separation method is adapted to partition the variance of radar-gauge differences into the gauge area-point error variance and radar rain estimation error variance. The results provide relatively reliable quantitative uncertainty evaluation of TRMM GV radar rain estimates at various times scales, and are helpful to better understand the differences between measured radar and gauge rain rates. It is envisaged that this study will contribute to better utilization of GV radar rain products to validate versatile spaced-based rain estimates from TRMM, as well as the proposed Global Precipitation Measurement, and other satellites.

Description: An extended forecast of the frequencies for the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season is presented. Continued increased activity during the 2009 season with numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes exceeding long-term averages are indicated. Poisson statistics for the combined high-activity intervals (1950-1965 and 1995-2008) give the central 50% intervals to be 9-14, 5-8, and 2-4, respectively, for the number of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, with a 23.4% chance of exceeding 14 tropical cyclones, a 28% chance of exceeding 8 hurricanes, and a 31.9% chance of exceeding 4 major hurricanes. Based strictly on the statistics of the current high-activity interval (1995-2008), the central 50% intervals for the numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12-18, 6-10, and 3-5, respectively, with only a 5% chance of exceeding 23, 13, or 7 storms, respectively. Also examined are the first differences in 10-yr moving averages and the effects of global warming and decadal-length oscillations on the frequencies of occurrence for North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones. In particular, temperature now appears to be the principal driver of increased activity and storm strength during the current high-activity interval, with near-record values possible during the 2009 season.

Description: The direct influences of equatorial waves on the genesis of tropical cyclones are evaluated. Tropical cyclogenesis is attributed to an equatorial wave when the filtered rainfall anomaly exceeds a threshold value at the genesis location. For an attribution threshold of 3 mm/day, 51% of warm season western North Pacific tropical cyclones are attributed to tropical depression (TD)-type disturbances, 29% to equatorial Rossby waves, 26% to mixed Rossby-Gravity waves, 23% to Kelvin waves, 13% to the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), and 19% are not attributed to any equatorial wave. The fraction of tropical cyclones attributed to TD-type disturbances is consistent with previous findings. Past studies have also demonstrated that the MJO significantly modulates tropical cyclogenesis, but fewer storms are attributed to the MJO than any other wave type. This disparity arises from the difference between attribution and modulation. The MJO produces broad regions of favorable conditions for cyclogenesis, but the MJO alone might not determine when and where a storm will develop within these regions. Tropical cyclones contribute less than 17% of the power in any portion of the equatorial wave spectrum because tropical cyclones are relatively uncommon equatorward of 15deg latitude. In regions where they are active, however, tropical cyclones can contribute more than 20% of the warm season rainfall and up to 50% of the total variance. Tropical cyclone-related anomalies can significantly contaminate wave-filtered precipitation at the location of genesis. To mitigate this effect, the tropical cyclone-related rainfall anomalies were removed before filtering in this study.

Description: Methodologies to improve disdrometer processing, loosely based on mathematical techniques common to the field of particle flow and fluid mechanics, are examined and tested. The inclusion of advection and vertical wind field estimates appear to produce significantly improved results in a Lagrangian hydrometeor trajectory model, in spite of very strict assumptions of noninteracting hydrometeors, constant vertical air velocity, and time independent advection during the scan time interval. Wind field data can be extracted from each radar elevation scan by plotting and analyzing reflectivity contours over the disdrometer site and by collecting the radar radial velocity data to obtain estimates of advection. Specific regions of disdrometer spectra (drop size versus time) often exhibit strong gravitational sorting signatures, from which estimates of vertical velocity can be extracted. These independent wind field estimates become inputs and initial conditions to the Lagrangian trajectory simulation of falling hydrometeors.

Description: This report describes the quality of the Nimbus 7 Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) water vapor (H2O) profiles of 1978/79 that were processed with a Version 6 (V6) algorithm and archived in 2002. The V6 profiles incorporate a better knowledge of the instrument attitude for the LIMS measurements along its orbits, leading to improvements for its temperature profiles and for the registration of its water vapor radiances with pressure. As a result, the LIMS V6 zonal-mean distributions of H2O exhibit better hemispheric symmetry than was the case from the original Version 5 (V5) dataset that was archived in 1982. Estimates of the precision and accuracy of the V6 H2O profiles are developed and provided. Individual profiles have a precision of order 5% and an estimated accuracy of about 19% at 3 hPa, 14% at 10 hPa, and 26% at 50 hPa. Profile segments within about 2 km of the tropopause are often affected by emissions from clouds that appear in the finite field-of-view of the detector for the LIMS H2O channel. Zonally-averaged distributions of the LIMS V6 H2O are compared with those from the more recent Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite experiment for November, February, and May of 2004/2005. The patterns and values of their respective distributions are similar in many respects. Effects of a strengthened Brewer-Dobson circulation are indicated in the MLS distributions of the recent decade versus those of LIMS from 1978/79. A tropical tape recorder signal is present in the 7-month time series of LIMS V6 H2O with lowest values in February 1979, and the estimated, annually-averaged "entry-level" H2O is 3.5 to 3.8 ppmv. It is judged that this historic LIMS water vapor dataset is of good quality for studies of the near global-scale chemistry and transport for pressure levels from 3 hPa to about 70 to 100 hPa.

Description: This candidate solution suggests the use of GPM precipitation observations to enhance the CERP. Specifically, GPM measurements could augment in situ precipitation data that are used to model agricultural phosphorus discharged into the Everglades. This solution benefits society by aiding water resource managers in identifying effective phosphorus reduction scenarios and thereby returning the Everglades to a more natural state. This solution supports the Water Management, Coastal Management, and Ecological Forecasting National Applications.

Description: Sensors flying on satellites provide the only practical means of estimating the precipitation that falls over the entire globe, particularly across the vast unpopulated expanses of Earth s oceans. The sensors that observe the Earth using microwave frequencies provide the best data, but currently these are mounted only on satellites flying in "low Earth orbit". Such satellites constantly move across the Earth s surface, providing snapshots of any given location every 12-36 hours. The entire constellation of low-orbit satellites numbers less than a dozen, and their orbits are not coordinated, so a location will frequently go two or more hours between snapshots. "Geosynchronous Earth orbit" (GEO) satellites continuously observe the same region of the globe, allowing them to provide very frequent pictures. For example, the "satellite movies" shown on television come from GEO satellites. However, the sensors available on GEO satellites cannot match the skill of the low-orbit microwave sensors in estimating precipitation. It is perhaps obvious that scientists should try to combine these very different kinds of data, taking advantage of the strengths of each, but this simple concept has proved to be a huge challenge. The scheme in this paper is "Lagrangian", meaning we follow the storm systems, rather than being tied to a fixed grid of boxes on the Earth s surface. Whenever a microwave snapshot occurs, we gladly use the resulting precipitation estimate. Then at all the times between the microwave snapshots we force the storm system to make a smooth transition from one snapshot s values to the next. We know that a lot more changes occur between the snapshots, but this smooth transition the best we can do with the microwave data alone. The key new contribution in this paper is that we also look at the relative variations in the GEO estimates during these in-between times and force the estimated changes in the precipitation to have similar variations. Preliminary testing shows that this approach has enough promise that it should be developed and studied.

Description: The two main forcings that can counteract to some extent the positive forcings from greenhouse gases from pre-industrial times to present-day are the aerosol and related aerosol-cloud forcings, and the radiative response to changes in surface albedo. Here, we quantify the change in radiative forcing and surface temperature that may be obtained by increasing the albedos of roofs and pavements in urban areas in temperate and tropical regions of the globe. Using the catchment land surface model (the land model coupled to the GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model), we quantify the response of the total outgoing (outgoing shortwave+longwave) radiation to urban albedo changes. Globally, the total outgoing radiation increased by 0.5 W/square m and temperature decreased by -0.008 K for an average 0.003 increase in albedo. For the U.S. the total outgoing total radiation increased by 2.3 W/square meter, and temperature decreased by approximately 0.03 K for an average 0.01 increase in albedo. These values are for the boreal summer (Tune-July-August). Based on these forcings, the expected emitted CO2 offset for a plausible 0.25 and 0.15 increase in albedos of roofs and pavements, respectively, for all global urban areas, was found to be approximately 57 Gt CO2 . A more meaningful evaluation of the impacts of urban albedo increases on climate and the expected CO2 offsets would require simulations which better characterizes urban surfaces and represents the full annual cycle.

Description: This poster reviews the program to estimate the intracloud (IC) to cloud-to-ground (CG) ratio (Z = IC/CG) of a large sample of extreme (i.e., severe) weather events over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using coincident Optical Transient Detector (OTD) [or Lightning Image Sensor (LIS)] and National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) observations

Description: No abstract available

Description: NASA Langley Research Center has a long history of developing 2-micron laser transmitter for wind sensing. With support from NASA Laser Risk Reduction Program (LRRP) and Instrument Incubator Program (IIP), NASA Langley Research Center has developed a state-of-the-art compact lidar transceiver for a pulsed coherent Doppler lidar system for wind measurement. This lidar system was recently deployed at Howard University facility in Beltsville, Maryland, along with other wind lidar systems. Coherent Doppler wind lidar ground-based wind measurements and comparisons with other lidars and other sensors will be presented.

Description: CALIPSO's main mission objective is studying the climate impact of clouds and aerosols in the atmosphere. CALIPSO also collects information about other components of the Earth's ecosystem, such as oceans and land. This paper introduces the physics concepts and presents preliminary results for the valueadded CALIPSO Earth system science products. These include ocean surface wind speeds, column atmospheric optical depths, ocean subsurface backscatter, land surface elevations, atmospheric temperature profiles, and A-train data fusion products.

Description: We investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of hydrogen cyanide (HCN) in the upper troposphere through numerical simulations and comparison with observations from a space-based instrument. To perform the simulations, we used the Global Environmental Multiscale Air Quality model (GEM-AQ), which is based on the threedimensional Gobal multiscale model developed by the Meteorological Service of Canada for operational weather forecasting. The model was run for the period 2004-2006 on a 1.5deg x 1.5deg global grid with 28 hybrid vertical levels from the surface up to 10 hPa. Objective analysis data from the Canadian Meteorological Centre were used to update the meteorological fields every 24 h. Fire emission fluxes of gas species were generated by using year-specific inventories of carbon emissions with 8-day temporal resolution from the Global Fire Emission Database (GFED) version 2. The model output is compared with HCN profiles measured by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) instrument onboard the Canadian SCISAT-1 satellite. High values of up to a few ppbv are observed in the tropics in the Southern Hemisphere; the enhancement in HCN volume mixing ratios in the upper troposphere is most prominent in October. Low upper-tropospheric mixing ratios of less than 100 pptv are mostly recorded at middle and high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere in May-July. Mixing ratios in Northern Hemisphere peak in the boreal summer. The amplitude of the seasonal variation is less pronounced than in the Southern Hemisphere. The comparison with the satellite data shows that in the upper troposphere GEM-AQ perform7s well globally for all seasons, except at northern hi gh and middle latitudes in surnmer, where the model has a large negative bias, and in the tropics in winter and spring, where it exhibits large positive bias. This may reflect inaccurate emissions or possible inaccuracies in the emission profile. The model is able to explain most of the observed variability in the upper troposphere HCN field, includin g the interannual variations in the observed mixing ratio. A complementary comparison with daily total columns of HCN from two middle latitude ground-based stations in Northern Japan for the same simulation period shows that the model captures the observed seasonal variation and also points to an underestimation of model emissions in the Northern Hemisphere in the summer. The estimated average global emission equals 1.3 Tg N/yr. The average atmospheric burden is 0.53 Tg N, and the corresponding lifetime is 4.9 months.

Description: Previous studies have demonstrated that rapid increases in total lightning activity (intracloud + cloud-to-ground) are often observed tens of minutes in advance of the occurrence of severe weather at the ground. These rapid increases in lightning activity have been termed "lightning jumps." Herein, we document a positive correlation between lightning jumps and the manifestation of severe weather in thunderstorms occurring across the Tennessee Valley and Washington D.C. A total of 107 thunderstorms were examined in this study, with 69 of the 107 thunderstorms falling into the category of non-severe, and 38 into the category of severe. From the dataset of 69 isolated non-severe thunderstorms, an average peak 1 minute flash rate of 10 flashes/min was determined. A variety of severe thunderstorm types were examined for this study including an MCS, MCV, tornadic outer rainbands of tropical remnants, supercells, and pulse severe thunderstorms. Of the 107 thunderstorms, 85 thunderstorms (47 non-severe, 38 severe) from the Tennessee Valley and Washington D.C tested 6 lightning jump algorithm configurations (Gatlin, Gatlin 45, 2(sigma), 3(sigma), Threshold 10, and Threshold 8). Performance metrics for each algorithm were then calculated, yielding encouraging results from the limited sample of 85 thunderstorms. The 2(sigma) lightning jump algorithm had a high probability of detection (POD; 87%), a modest false alarm rate (FAR; 33%), and a solid Heidke Skill Score (HSS; 0.75). A second and more simplistic lightning jump algorithm named the Threshold 8 lightning jump algorithm also shows promise, with a POD of 81% and a FAR of 41%. Average lead times to severe weather occurrence for these two algorithms were 23 minutes and 20 minutes, respectively. The overall goal of this study is to advance the development of an operationally-applicable jump algorithm that can be used with either total lightning observations made from the ground, or in the near future from space using the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper.

Description: The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an innovative radiometer which offers new and unique remotely sensed observations of both extreme oceanic wind events and strong precipitation. It is based on the airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) [Uhlhorn and Black, 2004]. The HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer (STAR) technology [Ruf et al., 1988]. This sensor operates over 4-7 GHz, where the required tropical cyclone remote sensing physics has been validated by both SFMR and WindSat radiometer [Bettenhausen et al., 2006; Brown et al., 2006]. HIRAD incorporates a new and unique array antenna design along with several technologies successfully demonstrated by the Lightweight Rain Radiometer instrument [Ruf et al., 2002; Ruf and Principe, 2003]. HIRAD will be a compact, lightweight, low-power instrument with no moving parts that will produce wide-swath imagery of ocean winds and rain in hurricane conditions. Accurate observations of surface ocean vector winds (OVW) with high spatial and temporal resolution are required for understanding and predicting tropical cyclones. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an innovative architecture which offers new and unique remotely sensed observations of both extreme oceanic wind events and strong precipitation. It is based on the airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which is a proven remote sensing technique for observing tropical cyclone (TC) ocean surface wind speeds and rain rates. The proposed HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer (STAR) technology combined with a a unique array antenna design. The overarching design concept of HIRAD is to combine the multi-frequency C-band observing strategy of the SFMR with STAR technology to produce a wide-swath imager. Single frequency STAR technology The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an innovative radiometer which offers new and unique remotely sensed observations of both extreme oceanic wind events and strong precipitation. It is based on the airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) [Uhlhorn and Black, 2004]. The HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer (STAR) technology [Ruf et al., 1988]. This sensor operates over 4-7 GHz, where the required tropical cyclone remote sensing physics has been validated by both SFMR and WindSat radiometer [Bettenhausen et al., 2006; Brown et al., 2006]. HIRAD incorporates a new and unique array antenna design along with several technologies successfully demonstrated by the Lightweight Rain Radiometer instrument [Ruf et al., 2002; Ruf and Principe, 2003]. HIRAD will be a compact, lightweight, low-power instrument with no moving parts that will produce wide-swath imagery of ocean winds and rain in hurricane conditions. Accurate observations of surface ocean vector winds (OVW) with high spatial and temporal resolution are required for understanding and predicting tropical cyclones. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an innovative architecture which offers new and unique remotely sensed observations of both extreme oceanic wind events and strong precipitation. It is based on the airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which is a proven remote sensing technique for observing tropical cyclone (TC) ocean surface wind speeds and rain rates. The proposed HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer (STAR) technology combined with a a unique array antenna design. The overarching design concept of HIRAD is to combine the multi-frequency C-banbserving strategy of the SFMR with STAR technology to produce a wide-swath imager. Single frequency STAR technology

Description: This presentation gives a general overlook of the engineering efforts that are necessary to meet science mission requirement especially for Earth Science missions. It provides brief overlook of NASA's current missions and future Earth Science missions and the engineering challenges to meet some of the specific science objectives. It also provides, if time permits, a brief summary of two significant weather and climate phenomena in the Southern Hemisphere: El Nino and La Nina, as well as the Ozone depletion over Antarctica that will be of interest to IEEE intercom 2009 conference audience.

Description: Surface and atmospheric thermodynamic parameters retrieved with advanced ultraspectral remote sensors aboard Earth observing satellites are critical to general atmospheric and Earth science research, climate monitoring, and weather prediction. Ultraspectral resolution infrared radiance obtained from nadir observations provide atmospheric, surface, and cloud information. Presented here is the global surface IR emissivity retrieved from Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) measurements under "clear-sky" conditions. Fast radiative transfer models, applied to the cloud-free (or clouded) atmosphere, are used for atmospheric profile and surface parameter (or cloud parameter) retrieval. The inversion scheme, dealing with cloudy as well as cloud-free radiances observed with ultraspectral infrared sounders, has been developed to simultaneously retrieve atmospheric thermodynamic and surface (or cloud microphysical) parameters. Rapidly produced surface emissivity is initially evaluated through quality control checks on the retrievals of other impacted atmospheric and surface parameters. Surface emissivity and surface skin temperature from the current and future operational satellites can and will reveal critical information on the Earth s ecosystem and land surface type properties, which can be utilized as part of long-term monitoring for the Earth s environment and global climate change.

Description: This viewgraph presentation describes the Global Hawk aircraft and its unique performance capabilities as it pertains to the study of the climate change.

Description: In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses, which in turn should lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles with an accuracy comparable to that of radiosondes. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to optimally assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profiles--obtained from the version 5.0 Earth Observing System (EOS) science team retrieval algorithm-into a regional configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using WRF-Var. The paper focuses on development of background error covariances for the regional domain and background field type, a methodology for ingesting AIRS profiles as separate over-land and over-water retrievals with different error characteristics, and utilization of level-by-level quality indicators to select only the highest quality data. The assessment of the impact of the AIRS profiles on WRF-Var analyses will focus on intelligent use of the quality indicators, optimized tuning of the WRF-Var, and comparison of analysis soundings to radiosondes. The analyses will be used to conduct a month-long series of regional forecasts over the continental U.S. The long-tern1 impact of AIRS profiles on forecast will be assessed against verifying radiosonde and stage IV precipitation data.

Description: The key mission of the Satellite Proving Ground is to demonstrate new satellite observing data, products and capabilities in the operational environment to be ready on Day 1 to use the GOES-R suite of measurements. Algorithms, tools, and techniques must be tested, validated, and assessed by end users for their utility before they are finalized and incorporated into forecast operations. The GOES-R Proving Ground for the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) focuses on evaluating how the infusion of the new technology, algorithms, decision aids, or tailored products integrate with other available tools (weather radar and ground strike networks; nowcasting systems, mesoscale analysis, and numerical weather prediction models) in the hands of the forecaster responsible for issuing forecasts and warning products. Additionally, the testing concept fosters operation and development staff interactions which will improve training materials and support documentation development. Real-time proxy total lightning data from regional VHF lightning mapping arrays (LMA) in Northern Alabama, Central Oklahoma, Cape Canaveral Florida, and the Washington, DC Greater Metropolitan Area are the cornerstone for the GLM Proving Ground. The proxy data will simulate the 8 km Event, Group and Flash data that will be generated by GLM. Tailored products such as total flash density at 1-2 minute intervals will be provided for display in AWIPS-2 to select NWS forecast offices and national centers such as the Storm Prediction Center. Additional temporal / spatial combinations are being investigated in coordination with operational needs and case-study proxy data and prototype visualizations may also be generated from the NASA heritage Lightning Imaging Sensor and Optical Transient Detector data. End users will provide feedback on the utility of products in their operational environment, identify use cases and spatial/temporal scales of interest, and provide feedback to the developers for adjusted or new products.

Description: Cloud-type classification based on multispectral satellite imagery data has been widely researched and demonstrated to be useful for distinguishing a variety of classes using a wide range of methods. The research described here is a comparison of the classifier output from two very different algorithms applied to Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data over the course of one year. The first algorithm employs spectral channel thresholding and additional physically based tests. The second algorithm was developed through a supervised learning method with characteristic features of expertly labeled image samples used as training data for a 1-nearest-neighbor classification. The latter's ability to identify classes is also based in physics, but those relationships are embedded implicitly within the algorithm. A pixel-to-pixel comparison analysis was done for hourly daytime scenes within a region in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. Considerable agreement was found in this analysis, with many of the mismatches or disagreements providing insight to the strengths and limitations of each classifier. Depending upon user needs, a rule-based or other postprocessing system that combines the output from the two algorithms could provide the most reliable cloud-type classification.

Description: The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea surface temperature (SST) composite at 2-km resolution that has been implemented in version 3 of the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Environmental Modeling System (EMS). The WRF EMS is a complete, full physics numerical weather prediction package that incorporates dynamical cores from both the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). The installation, configuration, and execution of either the ARW or NMM models is greatly simplified by the WRF EMS to encourage its use by NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and the university community. The WRF EMS is easy to run on most Linux workstations and clusters without the need for compilers. Version 3 of the WRF EMS contains the most recent public release of the WRF-NMM and ARW modeling system (version 3 of the ARW is described in Skamarock et al. 2008), the WRF Pre-processing System (WPS) utilities, and the WRF Post-Processing program. The system is developed and maintained by the NWS National Science Operations Officer Science and Training Resource Coordinator. To initialize the WRF EMS with high-resolution MODIS SSTs, SPoRT developed the composite product consisting of MODIS SSTs over oceans and large lakes with the NCEP Real-Time Global (RTG) filling data over land points. Filling the land points is required due to minor inconsistencies between the WRF land-sea mask and that used to generate the MODIS SST composites. This methodology ensures a continuous field that adequately initializes all appropriate arrays in WRF. MODIS composites covering the Gulf of Mexico, western Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean are generated daily at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC corresponding to overpass times of the NASA Aqua and Terra polar orbiting satellites. The MODIS SST product is output in gridded binary-1 (GRIB-1) data format for a seamless incorporation into WRF via the WPS utilities. The full-resolution, 1-km MODIS product is sub-sampled to 2-km grid spacing due to limitations in handling very large dimensions in the GRIB-1 data format. The GRIB-1 files are posted online at ftp://ftp.nsstc.org/sstcomp/WRF/, which is directly accessed by the WRF EMS scripts. The MODIS SST composites are also downloaded to the EMS data server, which is accessible by the WRF EMS users and NWS WFOs. The SPoRT MODIS SST composite provides the model with superior detail of the ocean gradients around Florida and surrounding waters, whereas the operational RTG SST typically depicts a relatively smooth field and is not able to capture sharp horizontal gradients in SST. Differences of 2-3 C are common over small horizontal distances, leading to enhanced SST gradients on either side of the Gulf Stream and along the edges of the cooler shelf waters. These sharper gradients can in turn produce atmospheric responses in simulated temperature and wind fields as depicted in LaCasse et al. Differences in atmospheric verification statistics over a several month study were generally small in the vicinity of south Florida; however, the validation of SSTs at specific buoy locations revealed important improvements in the biases and RMS errors, especially in the vicinity of the cooler shelf waters off the east-central Florida coast. A current weakness in the MODIS SST product is the occurrence of occasional discontinuities caused by high latency in SST coverage due to persistent cloud cover. An enhanced method developed by Jedlovec et al. (2009, GHRSST User Symposium) reduces the occurrence of these problems by adding Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer -- EOS (AMSR-E) SST data to the compositing process. Enhanced SST composites are produced over the ocean regions surrounding the Continental U.S. at four times each day corresponding to Terra and Aqua equator crossing times. For a given day and overpass time, both MODInd AMSR-E data from the previous seven days form a collection used in the compositing. At each MODIS pixel, cloud-free SST values from the collection are used to form a weighted average based on their latency (number of days from the current day). In this way, recent SST data are given more weight than older data. One of the primary issues involved in incorporating the AMSR-E microwave data in the composites is the tradeoff between the decreased spatial resolution of the AMSR-E data (25 km) and the increased coverage due to its near all-weather capability. Currently, the AMSR-E is given a weight of 20% compared to MODIS data, thereby preserving the spatial structure observed in the MODIS data. Day-time (night-time) AMSR-E SST data from Aqua are used with both Terra and Aqua MODIS day-time (night-time) SST data sets.

Description: Members of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) design and operation communities rely on meteorological information collected at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), located near Cape Canaveral, Florida, to correctly apply the ambient environment to various tasks. The Natural Environments Branch/EV44, located at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama, is responsible for providing its NASA customers with meteorological data using various climatological data sources including balloons, surface stations, aircraft, hindcast models, and meteorological towers. Of the many resources available within the KSC region, meteorological towers are preferred for near-surface applications because they record data at regular, frequent intervals over an extensive period of record at a single location. This paper discusses the uses of data measured at several different meteorological towers for a common period of record and how the data can be applied to various engineering decisions for the new Constellation Program Ares and Orion space vehicles.

Description: Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that was grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be controlled by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices, and policies. In this paper we discuss several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia, and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14 percent between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21 st century food availability by disrupting Indian Ocean moisture transports and tilting the 21 st century climate toward a more El Nino-like state. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced main growing season rainfall along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, we present an analysis of emerging threats to global food security.

Description: Spatially resolved weekly NO2 variations are obtained from 2003 to 2005 Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY) tropospheric NO2 columns for three different types of regions: urban, rural, and rural-point (rural with significant electricity generation unit (EGU) emissions). Regions are compared for magnitudes and weekly profiles. Rural regions do not show any weekly pattern, whereas urban areas show a distinct decrease on the weekends. Rural regions with EGUs show a slight decrease on Sundays. When compared with estimated mobile and stationary nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) emissions from the year 2004 for seven cities, the satellite data have greater variation during weekdays (Monday-Friday). Overall comparisons show that SCIAMACHY derived NO2 correlate well with estimated NO(x) emissions for urban and rural but less for rural-point regions.

Description: The threat of lightning is a daily concern during the warm season in Florida. Research has revealed distinct spatial and temporal distributions of lightning occurrence that are strongly influenced by large-scale atmospheric flow regimes. Previously, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) calculated the gridded lightning climatologies based on seven flow regimes over Florida for 1-, 3- and 6-hr intervals in 5-, 10-,20-, and 30-NM diameter range rings around the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) and eight other airfields in the National Weather Service in Melbourne (NWS MLB) county warning area (CWA). In this update to the work, the AMU recalculated the lightning climatologies for using individual lightning strike data to improve the accuracy of the climatologies. The AMU included all data regardless of flow regime as one of the stratifications, added monthly stratifications, added three years of data to the period of record and used modified flow regimes based work from the AMU's Objective Lightning Probability Forecast Tool, Phase II. The AMU made changes so the 5- and 10-NM radius range rings are consistent with the aviation forecast requirements at NWS MLB, while the 20- and 30-NM radius range rings at the SLF assist the Spaceflight Meteorology Group in making forecasts for weather Flight Rule violations during Shuttle landings. The AMU also updated the graphical user interface with the new data.

Description: For expedience in delivering dispersion guidance in the diversity of operational situations, National Weather Service Melbourne (MLB) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are becoming increasingly reliant on the PC-based version of the HYSPLIT model run through a graphical user interface (GUI). While the GUI offers unique advantages when compared to traditional methods, it is difficult for forecasters to run and manage in an operational environment. To alleviate the difficulty in providing scheduled real-time trajectory and concentration guidance, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) configured a Linux version of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) (HYSPLIT) model that ingests the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) guidance, such as the North American Mesoscale (NAM) and the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) models. The AMU configured the HYSPLIT system to automatically download the NCEP model products, convert the meteorological grids into HYSPLIT binary format, run the model from several pre-selected latitude/longitude sites, and post-process the data to create output graphics. In addition, the AMU configured several software programs to convert local Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model output into HYSPLIT format.

Description: This report critically reviews current knowledge about global distributions and properties of atmospheric aerosols, as they relate to aerosol impacts on climate. It assesses possible next steps aimed at substantially reducing uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing estimates. Current measurement techniques and modeling approaches are summarized, providing context. As a part of the Synthesis and Assessment Product in the Climate Change Science Program, this assessment builds upon recent related assessments, including the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4, 2007) and other Climate Change Science Program reports. The objectives of this report are (1) to promote a consensus about the knowledge base for climate change decision support, and (2) to provide a synthesis and integration of the current knowledge of the climate-relevant impacts of anthropogenic aerosols for policy makers, policy analysts, and general public, both within and outside the U.S government and worldwide.

Description: NASA conducted a workshop in July 2009 to bring together their experts in the climate science and climate impacts domains with their institutional stewards. The workshop serves as a pilot for how a federal agency can start to: a) understand current and future climate change risks, b) develop a list of vulnerable institutional capabilities and assets, and c) develop next steps so flexible adaptation strategies can be developed and implemented. 63 attendees (26 scientists and over 30 institutional stewards) participated in the workshop, which extended across all or part of three days.

Description: The anvil clouds of tropical mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in West Africa, the Maritime Continent and the Bay of Bengal have been examined with TRMM and CloudSat satellite data and ARM ground-based radar observations. The anvils spreading out from the precipitating cores of MCSs are subdivided into thick, medium and thin portions. The thick portions of anvils show distinct differences from one climatological regime to another. In their upper portions, the thick anvils of West Africa MCSs have a broad, flat histogram of reflectivity, and a maximum of reflectivity in their lower portions. The reflectivity histogram of the Bay of Bengal thick anvils has a sharply peaked distribution of reflectivity at all altitudes with modal values that increase monotonically downward. The reflectivity histogram of the Maritime Continent thick anvils is intermediate between that of the West Africa and Bay of Bengal anvils, consistent with the fact this region comprises a mix of land and ocean influences. It is suggested that the difference between the statistics of the continental and oceanic anvils is related to some combination of two factors: (1) the West African anvils tend to be closely tied to the convective regions of MCSs while the oceanic anvils are more likely to be extending outward from large stratiform precipitation areas of MCSs, and (2) the West African MCSs result from greater buoyancy, so that the convective cells are more likely to produce graupel particles and detrain them into anvils

Description: This report summarizes the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) activities for the fourth quarter of Fiscal Year 2009 (July - September 2009). Tasks reports include: (1) Peak Wind Tool for User Launch Commit Criteria (LCC), (2) Objective Lightning Probability Tool. Phase III, (3) Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting. Phase II, (4) Update and Maintain Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS), (5) Verify MesoNAM Performance (6) develop a Graphical User Interface to update selected parameters for the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLlT)

Description: Yearly frequencies of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones, their locations of origin, peak wind speeds, average peak wind speeds, lowest pressures, and average lowest pressures for the interval 1950-2008 are examined. The effects of El Nino and La Nina on the tropical cyclone parametric values are investigated. Yearly and 10-year moving average (10-yma) values of tropical cyclone parameters are compared against those of temperature and decadal-length oscillation, employing both linear and bi-variate analysis, and first differences in the 10-yma are determined. Discussion of the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season, updating earlier results, is given.

Description: Examination of the decadal variation of the number of El Nino onsets and El Nino-related months for the interval 1950-2008 clearly shows that the variation is better explained as one expressing normal fluctuation and not one related to global warming. Comparison of the recurrence periods for El Nino onsets against event durations for moderate/strong El Nino events results in a statistically important relationship that allows for the possible prediction of the onset for the next anticipated El Nino event. Because the last known El Nino was a moderate event of short duration (6 months), having onset in August 2006, unless it is a statistical outlier, one expects the next onset of El Nino probably in the latter half of 2009, with peak following in November 2009-January 2010. If true, then initial early extended forecasts of frequencies of tropical cyclones for the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season probably should be revised slightly downward from near average-to-above average numbers to near average-to-below average numbers of tropical cyclones in 2009, especially as compared to averages since 1995, the beginning of the current high-activity interval for tropical cyclone activity.

Description: The Alliance Icing Research Study-II (AIRS-II) field program was conducted near Montreal, Canada during the winter of 2003. The NASA Icing Remote Detection System (NIRSS) was deployed to detect in-flight icing hazards and consisted of a vertically pointing multichannel radiometer, a ceilometer and an x-band cloud radar. The radiometer was used to derive atmospheric temperature soundings and integrated liquid water, while the ceilometer and radar were used only to define cloud boundaries. The purpose of this study is to show that the radar reflectivity profiles from AIRS-II case studies could be used to provide a qualitative icing hazard.

Description: Tropical cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean pose serious challenges to operational weather forecasting systems, partly due to their shorter lifespan and more erratic track, compared to those in the Atlantic and the Pacific. Moreover, the automated analyses of cyclones over the northern Indian Ocean, produced by operational global data assimilation systems (DASs), are generally of inferior quality than in other basins. In this work it is shown that the assimilation of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) temperature retrievals under partial cloudy conditions can significantly impact the representation of the cyclone Nargis (which caused devastating loss of life in Myanmar in May 2008) in a global DAS. Forecasts produced from these improved analyses by a global model produce substantially smaller track errors. The impact of the assimilation of clear-sky radiances on the same DAS and forecasting system is positive, but smaller than the one obtained by ingestion of AIRS retrievals, possibly due to poorer coverage.

Description: A cloud frequency of occurrence matrix is generated using merged cloud vertical profile derived from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR). The matrix contains vertical profiles of cloud occurrence frequency as a function of the uppermost cloud top. It is shown that the cloud fraction and uppermost cloud top vertical pro les can be related by a set of equations when the correlation distance of cloud occurrence, which is interpreted as an effective cloud thickness, is introduced. The underlying assumption in establishing the above relation is that cloud overlap approaches the random overlap with increasing distance separating cloud layers and that the probability of deviating from the random overlap decreases exponentially with distance. One month of CALIPSO and CloudSat data support these assumptions. However, the correlation distance sometimes becomes large, which might be an indication of precipitation. The cloud correlation distance is equivalent to the de-correlation distance introduced by Hogan and Illingworth [2000] when cloud fractions of both layers in a two-cloud layer system are the same.

Description: Several hypotheses have been put forward for the how tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic) first develop circulation at the surface, a key event that needs to occur before a storm can begin to draw energy from the warm ocean. One hypothesis suggests that the surface circulation forms from a "top-down" approach in which a storm s rotating circulation begins at middle levels of the atmosphere and builds down to the surface through processes related to light "stratiform" (horizontally extensive) precipitation. Another hypothesis suggests a bottom-up approach in which deep thunderstorm towers (convection) play the major role in spinning up the flow at the surface. These "hot towers" form in the area of the mid-level circulation and strongly concentrate this rotation at low levels within their updrafts. Merger of several of these hot towers then intensifies the surface circulation to the point in which a storm forms. This paper examines computer simulations of Tropical Storm Gert (2005), which formed in the Gulf of Mexico during the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) Experiment, to investigate the development of low-level circulation and, in particular, whether stratiform or hot tower processes were responsible for the storm s formation. Data from NASA satellites and from aircraft were used to show that the model did a good job of reproducing the formation and evolution of Gert. The simulation shows that a mix of both stratiform and convective rainfall occurred within Gert. While the stratiform rainfall clearly acted to increase rotation at middle levels, the diverging outflow beneath the stratiform rain worked against spinning up the low-level winds. The hot towers appeared to dominate the low-level flow, producing intense rotation within their cores and often being associated with significant pressure falls at the surface. Over time, many of these hot towers merged, with each merger adding to the rotation of the storm and the pressure falls at the surface. This process continued to increase the strength of the storm until the storm made landfall on the east coast of Mexico. These results support the bottom-up hypothesis for development.

Description: Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are warming the global climate at an unprecedented rate. Significant emission reductions will be required soon to avoid a rapid temperature rise. As a potential interim measure to avoid extreme temperature increase, it has been suggested that Earth's albedo be increased by artificially enhancing stratospheric sulfate aerosols. We use a 3D chemistry climate model, fed by aerosol size distributions from a zonal mean aerosol model, to simulate continuous injection of 1-10 Mt/a into the lower tropical stratosphere. In contrast to the case for all previous work, the particles are predicted to grow to larger sizes than are observed after volcanic eruptions. The reason is the continuous supply of sulfuric acid and hence freshly formed small aerosol particles, which enhance the formation of large aerosol particles by coagulation and, to a lesser extent, by condensation. Owing to their large size, these particles have a reduced albedo. Furthermore, their sedimentation results in a non-linear relationship between stratospheric aerosol burden and annual injection, leading to a reduction of the targeted cooling. More importantly, the sedimenting particles heat the tropical cold point tropopause and, hence, the stratospheric entry mixing ratio of H2O increases. Therefore, geoengineering by means of sulfate aerosols is predicted to accelerate the hydroxyl catalyzed ozone destruction cycles and cause a significant depletion of the ozone layer even though future halogen concentrations will be significantly reduced.

Description: Carbonyl chlorofluoride (COCIF) is an important reservoir of chlorine and Fluorine in the Earth's atmosphere. Satellite-based remote sensing measurements of COCIF, obtained by Received in revised form the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) for a time period spanning February 2004 through April 2007, have been used in a global distribution study. There is a strong Accepted 18 February 2009 source region for COCIF in the tropical stratosphere near 27 km. A layer of enhanced COCIF spans the low- to mid-stratosphere over all latitudes, with volume mixing ratios of 40-100 parts Per trillion by volume, largest in the tropics and decreasing toward the poles. The COCIF volume mixing ratio profiles are nearly zonally symmetric, but they exhibit a small hemispheric asymmetry that likely arises from a hemispheric asymmetry in the parent molecule CCl3F. Comparisons are made with a set of in situ stratospheric measurements from the mid-1980s and with predictions from a 2-D model.

Description: Unconventional multi-core processors (e.g., IBM Cell B/E and NYIDIDA GPU) have emerged as accelerators in climate simulation. However, climate models typically run on parallel computers with conventional processors (e.g., Intel and AMD) using MPI. Connecting accelerators to this architecture efficiently and easily becomes a critical issue. When using MPI for connection, we identified two challenges: (1) identical MPI implementation is required in both systems, and; (2) existing MPI code must be modified to accommodate the accelerators. In response, we have extended and deployed IBM Dynamic Application Virtualization (DAV) in a hybrid computing prototype system (one blade with two Intel quad-core processors, two IBM QS22 Cell blades, connected with Infiniband), allowing for seamlessly offloading compute-intensive functions to remote, heterogeneous accelerators in a scalable, load-balanced manner. Currently, a climate solar radiation model running with multiple MPI processes has been offloaded to multiple Cell blades with approx.10% network overhead.

Description: Although many new details on the properties of mesospheric ice particles that farm Polar Mesospheric Clouds (PMCs) and also cause polar mesospheric summer echoes have been recently revealed, certain aspects of mesospheric ice microphysics and dynamics still remain open. The detailed relation between PMC parameters and properties of their environment, as well as interseasonal and interhemispheric differences and trends in PMC properties that are possibly related to global change, are among those open questions. In this work, mesospheric temperature and water vapor concentration measured by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on board the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite are used to study the properties of PMCs with respect to the surrounding atmosphere. The cloud parameters, namely location, brightness, and altitude, are obtained from the observations made by the Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imager System (OSIRIS) on the Odin satellite. About a thousand of simultaneous common volume measurements made by SABER and OSIRIS in both hemispheres from 2002 until 2008 are used. The correlation between PMC brightness (and occurrence rate) and temperatures at PMC altitudes and at the mesopause is analysed. The relation between PMC parameters, frost point temperature, and gaseous water vapor content in and below the cloud is also discussed. Interseasonal and interhemispheric differences and trends in the above parameters, as well as in PMC peak altitudes and mesopause altitudes are evaluated.

Description: Among the processes governing the energy balance in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), the quenching of CO2(V2) vibrational levels in collisions with oxygen atoms plays an important role. However, neither the rate coefficient of this process (k(CO2O)) nor the atomic oxygen concentrations ([O]) in the MLT are well known. The discrepancy between k(CO2O) measured in the lab and retrieved from atmospheric measurements is of about factor of 2.5. At the same time, the discrepancy between [O] in the MLT measured by different instruments is of the same order of magnitude. In this work we used a synergy of a ground based lidar and satellite infrared radiometer to make a further step in understanding of the physics of the region. In this study we apply the night- and daytime temperatures between 80 and 110 km measured by the Colorado State University narrow-band sodium (Na) lidar located at Fort Collins, Colorado for retrieving the product of k(CO2-O) x [O] from the limb radiances in the 15 micron channel measured by the SABER/TIMED instrument for nearly simultaneous common volume measurements of both instruments within +/-1 degree in latitude, +/-2 degrees in longitude and +/-10 minutes in time. We derive k(CO2-O) and its possible variation range from the retrieved product by utilizing the [O] values measured by the SABER and other instruments.

Description: Gravimetry-based terrestrial water storage time series have great potential value for hydrological research and applications, because no other observing system can provide global maps of the integrated quantity of water stored on and below the land surface. However, these data are challenging to use because their spatial and temporal resolutions are low relative to other hydrological observations and because total terrestrial water storage is a measurement unfamiliar to hydrologists. In this presentation we will review techniques for temporal, horizontal, and vertical disaggregation of GRACE terrestrial water storage anomalies, including data assimilation and integration within a land surface model. We will then discuss initial results from three efforts to use the methods for water resources applications. These include drought monitoring across North America, water cycle assessment over the Middle East North African region, and groundwater depletion estimates for northern India.

Description: Seasonal snow cover in extra-tropical areas of South America was examined in this study using passive microwave satellite data from the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on board the Nimbus-7 satellite and from the Special Sensor Microwave Imagers (SSM/I) on board the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites. For the period from 1979-2006, both snow cover extent and snow mass were estimated for the months of May-September. Most of the seasonal snow in South America occurs in the Patagonia region of Argentina. The average snow cover extent for July, the month with the greatest average extent during the 28-year period of record, is 321,674 sq km. The seasonal (May-September) 2 average snow cover extent was greatest in 1984 (464,250 sq km) and least in 1990 (69,875 sq km). In terms of snow mass, 1984 was also the biggest year (1.19 x 10(exp 13) kg) and 1990 was the smallest year (0.12 X 10(exp 13) kg). A strong relationship exists between the snow cover area and snow mass, correlated at 0.95, though no significant trend was found over the 28 year record for either snow cover extent or snow mass. For this long term climatology, snow mass and snow cover extent are shown to vary considerably from month to month and season to season. This analysis presents a consistent approach to mapping and measuring snow in South America utilizing an appropriate and readily available long term snow satellite dataset. This is the optimal dataset available, thus far, for deriving seasonal snow cover and snow mass in this region. Nonetheless, shallow snow, wet snow, snow beneath forests, as well as snow along coastal areas all may confound interpretation using passive microwave approaches. More work needs to be done to reduce the uncertainties in the data and hence, increase the confidence of the interpretation

Description: Ocean phytoplankton supply about half of the oxygen that humans utilize to sustain life. In this lecture, we will explore how phytoplankton plays a critical role in modulating the Earth's climate. These tiny organisms are the base of the Ocean's food web. They can modulate the rate at which solar heat is absorbed by the ocean, either through direct absorption or through production of highly scattering cellular coverings. They take up and help sequester carbon dioxide, a key greenhouse gas that modulated the Earth's climate. They are the source of cloud nucleation gases that are key to cloud formation/processes. They are also able to modify the nutrient budgets of the ocean through active uptake of inert atmospheric nitrogen. Climate variations have a pronounced impact on phytoplankton dynamics. Long term variations in the climate have been studied through geological interpretations on its influence on phytoplankton populations. The presentation will focus on presenting the numerous linkages that have been observed between climate and phytoplankton and further discuss how present climate change scenarios are likely to impact phytoplankton populations as well as present findings from several studies that have tried to understand how the climate might react to the feedbacks from these numerous climate-phytop|ankton linkages.

Description: Clouds strongly modulate the transfer of solar and thermal radiation within the atmosphere. Changes in the distribution and properties of clouds in a changing climate represent climate feedbacks affecting climate sensitivity, but the predicted responses of clouds from current climate models are inconsistent. Of particular concern is the response of low clouds, and it is recognized that proper representation of low clouds in global models is in need of improvement. Accurate satellite cloud climatologies are necessary to evaluate model performance, but existing climatologies require validation and are inadequate in some respects for model evaluation. CALIPSO and CloudSat have been acquiring high vertical resolution cloud profiles since launch in 2006. These global cloud datasets represent a new tool for evaluation of both models and existing satellite climatologies. While a recently available merged CALIPSO-CloudSat cloud climatology provides the most comprehensive view of global 3-D cloud distribution, the CALIPSO dataset set on its own has several unique characteristics, including profiles of the atmospheric boundary layer with 30 meter vertical resolution. In this paper we investigate the use of CALIPSO data to characterize boundary layer clouds, looking toward the development of a reliable global dataset suitable for evaluation of model performance.

Description: Established in 2002 to demonstrate the weather and forecasting application of real-time EOS measurements, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program has grown to be an end-to-end research to operations activity focused on the use of advanced NASA modeling and data assimilation approaches, nowcasting techniques, and unique high-resolution multispectral observational data applications from EOS satellites to improve short-term weather forecasts on a regional and local scale. SPoRT currently partners with several universities and other government agencies for access to real-time data and products, and works collaboratively with them and operational end users at 13 WFOs to develop and test the new products and capabilities in a "test-bed" mode. The test-bed simulates key aspects of the operational environment without putting constraints on the forecaster workload. Products and capabilities which show utility in the test-bed environment are then transitioned experimentally into the operational environment for further evaluation and assessment. SPoRT focuses on a suite of data and products from MODIS, AMSR-E, and AIRS on the NASA Terra and Aqua satellites, and total lightning measurements from ground-based networks. Some of the observations are assimilated into or used with various versions of the WRF model to provide supplemental forecast guidance to operational end users. SPoRT is enhancing partnerships with NOAA / NESDIS for new product development and data access to exploit the remote sensing capabilities of instruments on the NPOESS satellites to address short term weather forecasting problems. The VIIRS and CrIS instruments on the NPP and follow-on NPOESS satellites provide similar observing capabilities to the MODIS and AIRS instruments on Terra and Aqua. SPoRT will be transitioning existing and new capabilities into the AWIIPS II environment to continue the continuity of its activities.

Description: As numerical forecasts capable of resolving individual convective clouds become more common, it is of interest to see if quantitative forecasts of lightning flash rate density are possible, based on fields computed by the numerical model. Previous observational research has shown robust relationships between observed lightning flash rates and inferred updraft and large precipitation ice fields in the mixed phase regions of storms, and that these relationships might allow simulated fields to serve as proxies for lightning flash rate density. It is shown in this paper that two simple proxy fields do indeed provide reasonable and cost-effective bases for creating time-evolving maps of predicted lightning flash rate density, judging from a series of diverse simulation case study events in North Alabama for which Lightning Mapping Array data provide ground truth. One method is based on the product of upward velocity and the mixing ratio of precipitating ice hydrometeors, modeled as graupel only, in the mixed phase region of storms at the -15\dgc\ level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domainwide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domainwide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. A blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Weather Research and Forecast Model simulations of selected North Alabama cases show that this model can distinguish the general character and intensity of most convective events, and that the proposed methods show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because models tend to have more difficulty in correctly predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single simulations can be in error. Although these model shortcomings presently limit the precision of lightning threat forecasts from individual runs of current generation models, the techniques proposed herein should continue to be applicable as newer and more accurate physically-based model versions, physical parameterizations, initialization techniques and ensembles of cloud-allowing forecasts become available.

Description: The gap in explicit resolution of phenomena between global climate models and cloud resolving models is shrinking at a steady pace with global integrations of several km in resolution now practical for at least some time scales. In moving toward finer resolution the long standing problem of convective parameterization is being examined along with the assumption of convective quasi-equilibrium and how this can be reconciled with the stochastic and intermittent nature of convection. In this context we examine the nature of parameterized convection in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Our analysis uses both coarse (2.5 degree) and fine scale 0.25 degree spatial resolution integrations. Two basic formulations are compared: the default option is the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) scheme which invokes a sequence of linearly entraining plumes and quasi-equilibrium closure. An optional modification of this method (the "Stochastic Tokioka" constraint) places a random lower limit on plume entrainment. An alternative representation is the Kain-Fritsch parameterization which was originally developed for mesoscale numerical modeling strategies. Here entrainment is determined by a crude buoyancy sorting approach that allows the plume spectrum to be more responsive to ambient vertical stratification of moisture. Diagnostics of the model behavior are referenced to recent observational evidence of continuous phase transition behavior. In particular we examine the relationship between column water vapor and probablility of convective presence and intensity. Sensitivity of the statistics of convective behavior to parcel mixing/entrainment formulations and parcel initial thermodynamics are considered. Observational statistics from A-Train and TRMM sensors provide validation of the model integrations.

Description: Research in land surface data assimilation has grown rapidly over the last decade. In this presentation we provide a brief overview of key research contributions by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The GSFC contributions to land assimilation primarily include the continued development and application of the Land Information System (US) and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In particular, we have developed a method to generate perturbation fields that are correlated in space, time, and across variables and that permit the flexible modeling of errors in land surface models and observations, along with an adaptive filtering approach that estimates observation and model error input parameters. A percentile-based scaling method that addresses soil moisture biases in model and observational estimates opened the path to the successful application of land data assimilation to satellite retrievals of surface soil moisture. Assimilation of AMSR-E surface soil moisture retrievals into the NASA Catchment model provided superior surface and root zone assimilation products (when validated against in situ measurements and compared to the model estimates or satellite observations alone). The multi-model capabilities of US were used to investigate the role of subsurface physics in the assimilation of surface soil moisture observations. Results indicate that the potential of surface soil moisture assimilation to improve root zone information is higher when the surface to root zone coupling is stronger. Building on this experience, GSFC leads the development of the Level 4 Surface and Root-Zone Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product for the planned NASA Soil-Moisture-Active-Passive (SMAP) mission. A key milestone was the design and execution of an Observing System Simulation Experiment that quantified the contribution of soil moisture retrievals to land data assimilation products as a function of retrieval and land model skill and yielded an estimate of the error budget for the SMAP L4_SM product. Terrestrial water storage observations from GRACE satellite system were also successfully assimilated into the NASA Catchment model and provided improved estimates of groundwater variability when compared to the model estimates alone. Moreover, satellite-based land surface temperature (LST) observations from the ISCCP archive were assimilated using a bias estimation module that was specifically designed for LST assimilation. As with soil moisture, LST assimilation provides modest yet statistically significant improvements when compared to the model or satellite observations alone. To achieve the improvement, however, the LST assimilation algorithm must be adapted to the specific formulation of LST in the land model. An improved method for the assimilation of snow cover observations was also developed. Finally, the coupling of LIS to the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model enabled investigations into how the sensitivity of land-atmosphere interactions to the specific choice of planetary boundary layer scheme and land surface model varies across surface moisture regimes, and how it can be quantified and evaluated against observations. The on-going development and integration of land assimilation modules into the Land Information System will enable the use of GSFC software with a variety of land models and make it accessible to the research community.

Description: A major motivation for the study of the coupled land-atmosphere system is the idea that soil moisture anomalies may affect future meteorological variables through their effects on future surface energy and water budgets. If true, the accurate initialization of soil moisture in a subseasonal or seasonal forecast system may improve forecast skill, making the forecast products more valuable to society. The Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) project is examining, with a wide variety of models, the degree to which subseasonal (out to two months) precipitation and air temperature forecasts improve through the realistic initialization of soil moisture. For the first time ever, a global consensus should emerge regarding the value of land initialization for forecasts, perhaps motivating national forecast centers to make full use of land moisture initialization in their operations. Participants in GLACE-2 perform two series of forecasts, each consisting of 100 2-month forecast ensembles (10 members per ensemble) covering ten boreal spring and summer start-dates in each of the years 1986-1995. Series 1 utilizes realistic land surface state initialization, provided through a decadal offline simulation using realistic meteorological forcing, as provided by the Global Soil Wetness Project - Phase 2 (GSWP-2), a research activity of the Global Land-Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) of GEWEX. Series 2 is identical to Series 1 in every way except for the fact that it does not benefit from realistic land state initialization. Through the comparison of Series 1 and 2, we isolate the impact of land initialization on the forecasts. Optional extensions to these base runs include forecasts covering additional years, using alternative meteorological forcing for the land initialization. To date, GLACE-2 has garnered participation from eleven modeling groups, covering 13 atmospheric models. Analysis of available results is already well underway, both at the individual modeling institutions and at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, which is coordinating the project. Analysis focuses on two elements of the forecast problem: (i) the quantification of model-specific "predictability" (i.e., the degree to which simulated atmospheric chaos will foil a forecast, even under the assumption of"perfect" model physics, initialization data, and validation data) and its decay with time; and (ii) the quantification of forecast skill, determined through a comparison of predicted precipitation and air temperature against observations. Indeed, the specific contribution of land initialization to both these elements is isolated through a comparison of the Series 1 and 2 forecasts. We examine the two elements at four different forecast leads: 1-15, 16-30, 31-45, and 46-60 days. Statistics-based approaches for enhancing skill (essentially using observational statistics to reduce the impact of the models' climatic biases) are also tested. In the present talk, we provide an update of progress in GLACE-2, featuring quantifications of predictability and forecast skill for a number of the participating models and providing a "first look" at the desired consensus view of land impacts on subseasonal forecasts.

Description: An experiment is being conducted to compare directly the impact of all assimilated observations on short-range forecast errors in different operational forecast systems. We use the adjoint-based method developed by Langland and Baker (2004), which allows these impacts to be efficiently calculated. This presentation describes preliminary results for a "baseline" set of observations, including both satellite radiances and conventional observations, used by the Navy/NOGAPS and NASA/GEOS-5 forecast systems for the month of January 2007. In each system, about 65% of the total reduction in 24-h forecast error is provided by satellite observations, although the impact of rawinsonde, aircraft, land, and ship-based observations remains significant. Only a small majority (50- 55%) of all observations assimilated improves the forecast, while the rest degrade it. It is found that most of the total forecast error reduction comes from observations with moderate-size innovations providing small to moderate impacts, not from outliers with very large positive or negative innovations. In a global context, the relative impacts of the major observation types are fairly similar in each system, although regional differences in observation impact can be significant. Of particular interest is the fact that while satellite radiances have a large positive impact overall, they degrade the forecast in certain locations common to both systems, especially over land and ice surfaces. Ongoing comparisons of this type, with results expected from other operational centers, should lead to more robust conclusions about the impacts of the various components of the observing system as well as about the strengths and weaknesses of the methodologies used to assimilate them.

Description: Data from the MaCWAVE MIDAS Rocket Program launched during July, 2002, from Andoya Rocket Range (ARR) in Norway have demonstrated that the temperature structure of the summer polar mesosphere during this period was atypical, at least above ARR. The summer polar mesopause region was warmer than normal and of shorter duration than for other years analyzed. Theoretical studies have since been published that imply that the abnormal characteristics of this polar summer were generated by unusual dynamical processes occurring in the southern polar winter hemisphere. We have used data from the SABER instrument aboard the NASA TIMED Satellite to study these characteristics on a global scale and compare them with the features observed in the ensuing seven years. For background, The TIMED Satellite was launched on December 7, 2001 to study the dynamics and energy of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). The SABER instrument on TIMED is a limb scanning infrared radiometer designed to measure a large number of minor constituents as well as temperature of the MLT. In this study, we have investigated the temperature characteristics of the polar mesosphere as a function of spatial and temporal considerations. We have used the most recent SABER dataset (1.07) that includes the improved temperature retrievals in Earth polar regions, Weekly averages were used 10 make the comparisons between the winter and summer hemispheres. The unusually short polar summer in the northern hemisphere during 2002 is clearly defined by this analysis and is shown to be unique for the 7 years analyzed. Furthermore, the data analysis agrees with recent theoretical studies showing that this behavior is a result of anomalous heating events in the southern polar stratosphere. The time sequence of the coupling process, as predicted by recent theoretical models, is well defined in a sequence of weekly temperature contour maps measured by SABER.

Description: Intraseasonal variability of deep convection represents a fundamental mode of variability in the organization of tropical convection. While most studies of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) have focused on the spatial propagation and dynamics of convectively coupled circulations, we examine the projection of ISOs on the tropically-averaged temperature and energy budget. The area of interest is the global oceans between 20oN/S. Our analysis then focuses on these questions: (i) How is tropospheric temperature related to tropical deep convection and the associated ice cloud fractional amount (ICF) and ice water path (IWP)? (ii) What is the source of moisture sustaining the convection and what role does deep convection play in mediating the PBL - free atmospheric temperature equilibration? (iii) What affect do convectively generated upper-tropospheric clouds have on the TOA radiation budget? Our methodology is similar to that of Spencer et al., (2007) with some modifications and some additional diagnostics of both clouds and boundary layer thermodynamics. A composite ISO time series of cloud, precipitation and radiation quantities built from nearly 40 events during a six-year period is referenced to the atmospheric temperature signal. The increase of convective precipitation cannot be sustained by evaporation within the domain, implying strong moisture transports into the tropical ocean area. While there is a decrease in net TOA radiation that develops after the peak in deep convective rainfall, there seems little evidence that an "Infrared Iris"- like mechanism is dominant. Rather, the cloud-induced OLR increase seems largely produced by weakened convection with warmer cloud tops. Tropical ISO events offer an accessible target for studying ISOs not just in terms of propagation mechanisms, but on their global signals of heat, moisture and radiative flux feedback processes.

Description: While global warming is regarded as a fact by many in the scientific community, its future impact remains a challenge to be determined and measured. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report (IPCC, 2007) shows inconclusive answers on global rainfall trends and general agreement on a future drier climate with increased global warming. The relationship between temperature, humidity and convection is not linear and is strongly dependent on regional scale features, such as topography and land cover. Furthermore, the relationship between convective lightning production (thunderstorms) and temperature is even more complicated, being subjected to the cloud dynamics and microphysics. Total lightning (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) monitoring is a relatively new field of observation. Global and tropical total lightning began to be more extensively measured by satellites in the mid 90s. In this scope, the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) onboard of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) has been operational for over 11 years. Here we address total lightning trends observed by LIS from 1998 to 2008 in different temporal (annual and seasonal) and spatial (large and regional) scales. The observed 11-year trends are then associate to different predicted/hypothesized climate change scenarios.

Description: We determined total conduction (Wilson) currents and flash rates for 850 overflights of electrified clouds spanning regions including the Southeastern United States, the Western Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, Central America and adjacent oceans, Central Brazil, and the South Pacific. The overflights include storms over land and ocean, with and without lightning, and with positive and negative Wilson currents. We combined these individual storm overflight statistics with global diurnal lightning variation data from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and Optical Transient Detector (OTD) to estimate the thunderstorm and electrified shower cloud contributions to the diurnal variation in the global electric circuit. The contributions to the global electric circuit from lightning producing clouds are estimated by taking the mean current per flash derived from the overflight data for land and ocean overflights and combining it with the global lightning rates (for land and ocean) and their diurnal variation derived from the LIS/OTD data. We estimate the contribution of non-lightning producing electrified clouds by assuming several different diurnal variations and total non-electrified storm counts to produce estimates of the total storm currents (lightning and non-lightning producing storms). The storm counts and diurnal variations are constrained so that the resultant total current diurnal variation equals the diurnal variation in the fair weather electric field (+/-15%). These assumptions, combined with the airborne and satellite data, suggest that the total mean current in the global electric circuit ranges from 2.0 to 2.7 kA, which is greater than estimates made by others using other methods.

Description: The Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) is a system of models that have been developed at Goddard Space Flight Center to support NASA's earth science research in data analysis, observing system modeling and design, climate and weather prediction, and basic research. The work presented used GEOS-5 with 0.25o horizontal resolution and 72 vertical levels (up to 0.01 hP) resolving both the troposphere and stratosphere, with closer packing of the levels close to the surface. The model includes explicit (grid-scale) moist physics, as well as convective parameterization schemes. Results will be presented that will demonstrate strong dependence in the results of modeling of a strong hurricane on the type of convective parameterization scheme used. The previous standard (default) option in the model was the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) scheme, which uses a quasi-equilibrium closure. In the cases shown, this scheme does not permit the efficient development of a strong storm in comparison with observations. When this scheme is replaced by a modified version of the Kain-Fritsch scheme, which was originally developed for use on grids with intervals of order 25 km such as the present one, the storm is able to develop to a much greater extent, closer to that of reality. Details of the two cases will be shown in order to elucidate the differences in the two modeled storms.

Description: A general theory for retrieving the fraction of ground flashes in N lightning observed by a satellite-based lightning imager is provided. An "exponential model" is applied as a physically reasonable constraint to describe the measured optical parameter distributions, and population statistics (i.e., mean, variance) are invoked to add additional constraints to the retrieval process. The retrieval itself is expressed in terms of a Bayesian inference, and the Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) solution is obtained. The approach is tested by performing simulated retrievals, and retrieval error statistics are provided. The ability to retrieve ground flash fraction has important benefits to the atmospheric chemistry community. For example, using the method to partition the existing satellite global lightning climatology into separate ground and cloud flash climatologies will improve estimates of lightning nitrogen oxides (NOx) production; this in turn will improve both regional air quality and global chemistry/climate model predictions.

Description: An algorithm has been developed to estimate the altitude distribution of one-meter lightning channel segments. The algorithm is required as part of a broader objective that involves improving the lightning NOx emission inventories of both regional air quality and global chemistry/climate models. The algorithm was tested and applied to VHF signals detected by the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA). The accuracy of the algorithm was characterized by comparing algorithm output to the plots of individual discharges whose lengths were computed by hand; VHF source amplitude thresholding and smoothing were applied to optimize results. Several thousands of lightning flashes within 120 km of the NALMA network centroid were gathered from all four seasons, and were analyzed by the algorithm. The mean, standard deviation, and median statistics were obtained for all the flashes, the ground flashes, and the cloud flashes. One-meter channel segment altitude distributions were also obtained for the different seasons.

Description: Previous statistical observations have shown that the recovery time scales of substorms occurring in the winter and near equinox (when the nighttime auroral zone was in darkness) are roughly twice as long as the recovery time scales for substorms occurring in the summer (when the nighttime auroral region was sunlit). This suggests that auroral substorms in the northern and southern hemispheres develop asymmetrically during solstice conditions with substorms lasting longer in the winter (dark) hemisphere than in the summer (sunlit) hemisphere. Additionally, this implies that more energy is deposited by electron precipitation in the winter hemisphere than in the summer one during substorms. This result, coupled with previous observations that have shown that auroral activity is more common when the ionosphere is in darkness and is suppressed when the ionosphere is in daylight, strongly suggests that the ionospheric conductivity plays an important role governing how magnetospheric energy is transferred to the ionosphere during substorms. Therefore, the ionosphere itself may dictate how much energy it will accept from the magnetosphere during substorms rather than this being an externally imposed quantity. Here, we extend our earlier work by statistically analyzing the recovery time scales for a large number of substorms observed in the conjugate hemispheres simultaneously by two orbiting global auroral imagers: Polar UVI and IMAGE FUV. Our current results are consistent with previous observations. The recovery time scales are observed to be longer in the winter (dark) hemisphere while the auroral activity has a shorter duration in the summer (sunlit) hemisphere. This leads to an asymmetric energy input from the magnetosphere to the ionosphere with more energy being deposited in the winter hemisphere than in the summer hemisphere.

Description: Intraseasonal variability of deep convection represents a fundamental mode of variability in the organization of tropical convection. While most studies of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) have focused on the spatial propagation and dynamics of convectively coupled circulations, we examine the projection of ISOs on the tropically-averaged temperature and energy budget. The area of interest is the global oceans between 20oN/S. Our analysis then focuses on these questions: (i) How is tropospheric temperature related to tropical deep convection and the associated ice cloud fractional amount (ICF) and ice water path (IWP)? (ii) What is the source of moisture sustaining the convection and what role does deep convection play in mediating the PBL - free atmospheric temperature equilibration? (iii) What affect do convectively generated upper-tropospheric clouds have on the TOA radiation budget? Our methodology is similar to that of Spencer et al., (2007) with some modifications and some additional diagnostics of both clouds and boundary layer thermodynamics. A composite ISO time series of cloud, precipitation and radiation quantities built from nearly 40 events during a six-year period is referenced to the atmospheric temperature signal. The increase of convective precipitation cannot be sustained by evaporation within the domain, implying strong moisture transports into the tropical ocean area. While there is a decrease in net TOA radiation that develops after the peak in deep convective rainfall, there seems little evidence that an "Infrared Iris"- like mechanism is dominant. Rather, the cloud-induced OLR increase seems largely produced by weakened convection with warmer cloud tops. Tropical ISO events offer an accessible target for studying ISOs not just in terms of propagation mechanisms, but on their global signals of heat, moisture and radiative flux feedback processes.

Description: The majority of lightning-related casualties typically occur during thunderstorm initiation (e.g., first flash) or dissipation (e.g., last flash). The physics of electrification and lightning production during thunderstorm initiation is fairly well understood. As such, the literature includes a number of studies presenting various radar techniques (using reflectivity and, if available, other dual-polarimetric parameters) for the anticipation of initial electrification and first lightning flash. These radar techniques have shown considerable skill at forecasting first flash. On the other hand, electrical processes and lightning production during thunderstorm dissipation are not nearly as well understood and few, if any, successful techniques have been developed to anticipate the last flash and subsequent cessation of lightning. One promising approach involves the use of dual-polarimetric radar variables to infer the presence of oriented ice crystals in lightning producing storms. In the absence of strong vertical electric fields, ice crystals fall with their largest (semi-major) axis in the horizontal associated with gravitational and aerodynamic forces. In thunderstorms, strong vertical electric fields (100-200 kV m(sup -1)) have been shown to orient small (less than 2 mm) ice crystals such that their semi-major axis is vertical (or nearly vertical). After a lightning flash, the electric field is typically relaxed and prior radar research suggests that ice crystals rapidly resume their preferred horizontal orientation. In active thunderstorms, the vertical electric field quickly recovers and the ice crystals repeat this cycle of orientation for each nearby flash. This change in ice crystal orientation from primarily horizontal to vertical during the development of strong vertical electric fields prior to a lightning flash forms the physical basis for anticipating lightning initiation and, potentially, cessation. Research has shown that radar reflectivity (Z) and other co-polar back-scattering radar measurements like differential reflectivity (Z(sub dr)) typically measured by operational dual-polarimetric radars are not sensitive to these changes in ice crystal orientation. However, prior research has demonstrated that oriented ice crystals cause significant propagation effects that can be routinely measured by most dual-polarimetric radars from X-band (3 cm) to S-band (10 cm) wavelengths using the differential propagation phase shift (often just called differential phase, phi(sub dp)) or its range derivative, the specific differential phase (K(sub dp)). Advantages of the differential phase include independence from absolute or relative power calibration, attenuation, differential attenuation and relative insensitivity to ground clutter and partial beam occultation effects (as long as the signal remains above noise). In research mode, these sorts of techniques have been used to anticipate initial cloud electrification, lightning initiation, and cessation. In this study, we develop a simplified model of ice crystal size, shape, orientation, dielectric, and associated radar scattering and propagation effects in order to simulate various idealized scenarios of ice crystals responding to a hypothetical electric field and their dual-polarimetric radar signatures leading up to lightning initiation and particularly cessation. The sensitivity of the K(sub dp) ice orientation signature to various ice properties and radar wavelength will be explored. Since K(sub dp) is proportional to frequency in the Rayleigh- Gans scattering regime, the ice orientation signatures should be more obvious at higher (lower) frequencies (wavelengths). As a result, simulations at radar wavelengths from 10 cm down to 1 cm (Ka-band) will be conducted. Resonance effects will be considered using the T-matrix method. Since most K(sub dp) Vbased observations have been shown at S-band, we will present ice orientation signatures from C-band (UAH/NASA ARMOR) and X-bd (UAH MAX) dual-polarimetric radars located in Northern Alabama. Issues related to optimal radar scanning for the detection of oriented ice will be discussed. Preliminary suggestions on how these differential phase signatures of oriented ice could contribute to lightning initiation and cessation algorithms will be presented.

Description: A new weather radar is being acquired for use in support of America s space program at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, NASA Kennedy Space Center, and Patrick AFB on the east coast of central Florida. This new radar replaces the modified WSR-74C at Patrick AFB that has been in use since 1984. The new radar is a Radtec TDR 43-250, which has Doppler and dual polarization capability. A new fixed scan strategy was designed to best support the space program. The fixed scan strategy represents a complex compromise between many competing factors and relies on climatological heights of various temperatures that are important for improved lightning forecasting and evaluation of Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LCC), which are the weather rules to avoid lightning strikes to in-flight rockets. The 0 C to -20 C layer is vital since most generation of electric charge occurs within it and so it is critical in evaluating Lightning LCC and in forecasting lightning. These are two of the most important duties of 45 WS. While the fixed scan strategy that covers most of the climatological variation of the 0 C to -20 C levels with high resolution ensures that these critical temperatures are well covered most of the time, it also means that on any particular day the radar is spending precious time scanning at angles covering less important heights. The goal of this project is to develop a user-friendly, Interactive Data Language (IDL) computer program that will automatically generate optimized radar scan strategies that adapt to user input of the temperature profile and other important parameters. By using only the required scan angles output by the temperature profile adaptive scan strategy program, faster update times for volume scans and/or collection of more samples per gate for better data quality is possible, while maintaining high resolution at the critical temperature levels. The temperature profile adaptive technique will also take into account earth curvature and refraction when geo-locating the radar beam (i.e., beam height and arc distance), including non-standard refraction based on the user-input temperature profile. In addition to temperature profile adaptivity, this paper will also summarize the other requirements for this scan strategy program such as detection of low-level boundaries, detection of anvil clouds, reducing the Cone Of Silence, and allowing for times when deep convective clouds will not occur. The adaptive technique will be carefully compared to and benchmarked against the new fixed scan strategy. Specific environmental scenarios in which the adaptive scan strategy is able to optimize and improve coverage and resolution at critical heights, scan time, and/or sample numbers relative to the fixed scan strategy will be presented.

Description: A new weather radar is being acquired for use in support of America s space program at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, NASA Kennedy Space Center, and Patrick AFB on the east coast of central Florida. This new radar includes dual polarization capability, which has not been available to 45 WS previously. The 45 WS has teamed with NSSTC with funding from NASA Marshall Spaceflight Flight Center to improve their use of this new dual polarization capability when it is implemented operationally. The project goals include developing a temperature profile adaptive scan strategy, developing training materials, and developing forecast techniques and tools using dual polarization products. The temperature profile adaptive scan strategy will provide the scan angles that provide the optimal compromise between volume scan rate, vertical resolution, phenomena detection, data quality, and reduced cone-of-silence for the 45 WS mission. The mission requirements include outstanding detection of low level boundaries for thunderstorm prediction, excellent vertical resolution in the atmosphere electrification layer between 0 C and -20 C for lightning forecasting and Lightning Launch Commit Criteria evaluation, good detection of anvil clouds for Lightning Launch Commit Criteria evaluation, reduced cone-of-silence, fast volume scans, and many samples per pulse for good data quality. The training materials will emphasize the appropriate applications most important to the 45 WS mission. These include forecasting the onset and cessation of lightning, forecasting convective winds, and hopefully the inference of electrical fields in clouds. The training materials will focus on annotated radar imagery based on products available to the 45 WS. Other examples will include time sequenced radar products without annotation to simulate radar operations. This will reinforce the forecast concepts and also allow testing of the forecasters. The new dual polarization techniques and tools will focus on the appropriate applications for the 45 WS mission. These include forecasting the onset of lightning, the cessation of lightning, convective winds, and hopefully the inference of electrical fields in clouds. This presentation will report on the results achieved so far in the project.

Description: The past four years have seen a marked enhancement in meteorological-radar infrastructure and radar-research capability at the University of Alabama-Huntsville (UAH) and National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC; a collaborative center supported by UAH, NASA-MSFC and USRA). This enhancement is due in part to the development of the ARMOR C-band dual-polarimetric radar facility (amongst other mobile radar facilities also discussed in this conference). The ARMOR radar, located at Huntsville International Airport, originated as a unique collaboration between university, government and broadcast meteorologists (the very first of its kind relative to concurrent operational, research and broadcast applications of dual-polarimetry). Contributions from each of these entities resulted in the upgrade of a surplus National Weather Service WSR-74C radar to a research-grade C-band polarimetric radar. The initial upgrade of the radar took place in late 2004 with WHNT-TV purchase and installation of a SIGMET (now Vaisala) Antenna Mounted Receiver (AMR), RVP8/RCP8 radar processor/antenna controller, new radome, and a new dual-polarimetric antenna feed. The AMR enabled simultaneous transmit and receive (STSR) capability and hence collection of dual-polarimetric moments. During the initial part of the AMR upgrade the original WSR74C antenna reflector and 250 kW magnetron-transmitter were used. In early 2005, a new 350 kW magnetron transmitter was purchased from Baron Services and installed. In October of 2006 a new high performance parabolic antenna and dual-pol feed (Seavey) were installed together with a new Orbit pedestal. ARMOR Radar control and data delivery are facilitated through the use of T-1 lines that run from the airport to both NSSTC and WHNT-TV in Huntsville. Under current operating protocols radar scanning and product development are completed at NSSTC, though meteorologists at WHNT-TV can also control the radar if desired. In its default scanning configuration the radar is operated 24/7 in an STSR polarimetric rain scan mode alternating with a surveillance scan on a 5-minute cycle; scans separated by 2.5 minutes. Every 2.5 minutes the raw data arrive at NSSTC where they are corrected in real time for attenuation and differential attenuation (using a constrained ZDR/Z-PHI approach) and new products are generated (e.g., rain maps, hydrometeor identification etc.). The raw and derived products are archived at NSSTC and also redistributed locally in real time over the network within NSSTC to the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Huntsville (collocated with NSSTC) for operational use. During periods of interesting weather the radar is often operated in full, sector, or RHI volume modes from NSSTC and coincident with UAH mobile radar or NWS NEXRAD radar platforms as needed.

Description: Increases in computational resources have allowed operational forecast centers to pursue experimental, high resolution simulations that resolve the microphysical characteristics of clouds and precipitation. These experiments are motivated by a desire to improve the representation of weather and climate, but will also benefit current and future satellite campaigns, which often use forecast model output to guide the retrieval process. Aircraft, surface and radar data from the Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO Validation Project are used to check the validity of size distribution and density characteristics for snowfall simulated by the NASA Goddard six-class, single-moment bulk water microphysics scheme, currently available within the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model. Widespread snowfall developed across the region on January 22, 2007, forced by the passing of a midlatitude cyclone, and was observed by the dual-polarimetric, C-band radar King City, Ontario, as well as the NASA 94 GHz CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar. Combined, these data sets provide key metrics for validating model output: estimates of size distribution parameters fit to the inverse-exponential equations prescribed within the model, bulk density and crystal habit characteristics sampled by the aircraft, and representation of size characteristics as inferred by the radar reflectivity at C- and W-band. Specified constants for distribution intercept and density differ significantly from observations throughout much of the cloud depth. Alternate parameterizations are explored, using column-integrated values of vapor excess to avoid problems encountered with temperature-based parameterizations in an environment where inversions and isothermal layers are present. Simulation of CloudSat reflectivity is performed by adopting the discrete-dipole parameterizations and databases provided in literature, and demonstrate an improved capability in simulating radar reflectivity at W-band versus Mie scattering assumptions.

Description: The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), which is on the EOS AURA satellite, retrieves vertical column densities (VCDs) of NO2, along with those of several other trace gases. The relatively high spatial resolution and daily global coverage of the instrument make it particularly well-suited to monitoring tropospheric pollution at scales on the order of 20 km. The OMI NO2 algorithm distinguishes polluted regions from background stratospheric NO2 using a separation algorithm that relies on the smoothly varying stratospheric NO2 and estimations of both stratospheric and tropospheric air mass factors (AMFs). Version 1 of OMI NO2 data has been released for public use. An overview of OMI NO2 data, some recent results and a description of the improvements for version 2 of the algorithm will be presented.

Description: This study will document the behavior of the polar vortices in two versions of the GEOS CCM. Both versions of the model include the same stratospheric chemistry, They differ in the underlying circulation model. Version 1 of the GEOS CCM is based on the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 4, general circulation model which includes the finite-volume (Lin-Rood) dynamical core and physical parameterizations from Community Climate Model, Version 3. GEOS CCM Version 2 is based on the GEOS-5 GCM that includes a different tropospheric physics package. Baseline simulations of both models, performed at two-degree spatial resolution, show some improvements in Version 2, but also some degradation, In the Antarctic, both models show an over-persistent stratospheric polar vortex with late breakdown, but the year-to-year variations that are overestimated in Version I are more realistic in Version 2. The implications of this for the interactions with tropospheric climate, the Southern Annular Mode, will be discussed. In the Arctic both model versions show a dominant dynamically forced variabi;ity, but Version 2 has a persistent warm bias in the low stratosphere and there are seasonal differences in the simulations. These differences will be quantified in terms of climate change and ozone loss. Impacts of model resolution, using simulations at one-degree and half-degree, and changes in physical parameterizations (especially the gravity wave drag) will be discussed.

Description: In the Summer of 2009, NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) will have completed 28 years of global satellite data analyses. Here, we characterize the global water and energy budgets of MERRA, compared with available observations and the latest reanalyses. In this analysis, the climatology of the global average components are studied as well as the separate land and ocean averages. In addition, the time series of the global averages are evaluated. For example, the global difference of precipitation and evaporation generally shows the influence of water vapor observations on the system. Since the observing systems change in time, especially remotely sensed observations of water, significant temporal variations can occur across the 28 year record. These then are also closely connected to changes in the atmospheric energy and water budgets. The net imbalance of the energy budget at the surface can be large and different signs for different reanalyses. In MERRA, the imbalance of energy at the surface tends to improve with time being the smallest during the most recent and abundant satellite observations.

Description: The realism of various aspects of the upper troposphere and stratosphere in the "Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications" (MERRA) dataset will be examined. The MERRA reanalysis extends from 1979 until the present, using the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) data assimilation system. The model and analysis have a half-degree spatial resolution with 72 layers that are constrained by observations between the Earth's surface and the stratopause. A comprehensive, time-evolving suite of meteorological observations (e.g., in-situ temperature, moisture, wind and pressure measurements and space-based infrared and microwave radiances) is assimilated. Results show realistic depiction of dominant features, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation, jet structures (including interannual variaficns) and tropopause characteristics, as validated using independent observations and system statistics. Challenges for such reanalyses include the stability to transitions in the observing system, such as the replacement of MSU/SSU by the AMSU-A data in the middle atmosphere. The paper will discuss the use of satellite radiances and examine impacts of satellite drifts and instrument changes on the analyses.

Description: The Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses has produced several years of data, on the way to a. completing the 1979-present modern satellite era. Here, we present a preliminary evaluation of those years currently available, including comparisons with the existing long reanalyses (ERA40, JPA25 and NCEP I and II) as well as with global data sets for the water and energy cycle. Time series shows that the MERRA budgets can change with some of the variations in observing systems. We will present all terms of the budgets in MERRA including the time rates of change and analysis increments (tendency due to the analysis of observations).

Description: With the adjoint of a data assimilation system, the impact of any or all assimilated observations on measures of forecast or analysis skill can be estimated accurately and efficiently. The approach is especially well-suited for assessing the impact of hyper-spectral satellite instruments on numerical weather forecasts because it easily allows aggregation of results in terms of individual data types, channels or locations, all computed simultaneously based on a single pass of the Adjoint- system. This talk 'provides a general overview of the use of Adjoint-based diagnostic tools in data assimilation. We will focus on the theoretical basis and practical implementation of these tools, as well as their application to specific problems. Adjoint-based Impact calculations will be compared with results from standard observing system experiments (OSEs) and their application to related problems, such as the calibration of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) will be discussed.

Description: Data assimilation is a potentially powerful method of extracting the maximum amount of information from observed data by combining their information with models. in this application, we will use stratospheric ozone profiles retrieved from EOS MLS and total column amounts retrieved from OMI' along with the GEOS-5 GCM, that includes a representation of ozone chemistry and transport. The presentation will discuss how well we can derive tropospheric ozone column information in this system, including its sensitivity to model errors and some assumptions made in the assimilation system. We discuss also ozone structures in the tropopause region and their sensitivity to model resolution and other fact=ors. An important issue we examine is how much more information we obtain from ozone assimilation than from model studies using state of the art chemistry models - answering such questions helps determine how useful ozone assimilation really is, given our present capabilities in chemical modeling.

Description: This talk gives an update on the progress and further plans for a coordinated project to carry out and analyze high-resolution simulations of tropical storm activity with a number of state-of-the-art global climate models. Issues addressed include, the mechanisms by which SSTs control tropical storm. activity on inter-annual and longer time scales, the modulation of that activity by the Madden Julian Oscillation on sub-seasonal time scales, as well as the sensitivity of the results to model formulation. The project also encourages companion coarser resolution runs to help assess resolution dependence, and. the ability of the models to capture the large-scale and long-terra changes in the parameters important for hurricane development. Addressing the above science questions is critical to understanding the nature of the variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon and its regional impacts, and thus CLIVAR RAMP fully endorses the proposed tropical storm simulation activity. The project is open to all interested organizations and investigators, and the results from the runs will be shared among the participants, as well as made available to the broader scientific community for analysis.

Description: This paper examines evolution of key ozone and climate aspects in our range of Goddard Earth Observing System Models, Versions 1-3. Version 1 (Pawson et al., 2008; )GR) used GSFC stratospheric ozone chemistry in GEOS-4 GCM. A chronic high bias in polar ozone at low chlorine loading persisted into Version 2, which used the GEQS-5 GCM and the same chemistry. This is much improved in Version 3, which uses the GMI-COMBO stratosphere-troposphere chemistry. A dynamical problem with Version 1, the overactive nature of the Antarctic polar vortex, is corrected in Versions 2 and 3, when GEQS-5 replaces GEO5-4. Other changes between the various model versions will be documented.

Description: The USCLIVAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. The runs were done with several global atmospheric models including NASA/NSIPP-1, NCEP/GFS, GFDL/AM2, and NCAR CCM3 and CAM3.5. Here we focus on the potential predictability associated with the leading patterns of inter-annual and decadal Pacific SST variability. Specific issues addressed include the nature of the seasonality and regionality of the signal, the noise, and the signal-to-noise ratios, as well as the dependence of the results on the models.

Description: Operational numerical weather prediction systems assimilate tremendous amounts of observations to produce global analyses of the atmospheric states. Since the systems include significant contributions from the model components, physical fields, such as the turbulent heat fluxes, can also be derived. However, the physical fields are indirectly constrained by the data assimilation, and so subject to uncertainty in the model parameterizations. Recently, 10 international operational analyses have been collected and reprocessed through the Coordinated Enhanced. Observing Period (CEOP). Comparisons against independent observations (global precipitation and outgoing longwave radiation) show that while there is significant range of the individual analyses, the ensemble of analyses provide data closest the observations. Here, we evaluate the collection of land surface turbulent heat fluxes. The data are available for Oct 2002 - Dec 2004, at 6 hourly, daily and monthly intervals. An ensemble mean and its variance have been computed. we will analyze the range of analysis results at daily and seasonal time scales, and where possible compare with existing observations.

Description: In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses, which in turn should lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which, together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles with an accuracy comparable to that of radionsondes. The purpose of this poster is to describe a procedure to optimally assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profiles, obtained from the version 5.0 Earth Observing System (EOS) science team retrieval algorithm, into a regional configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using WRF-Var. The poster focuses on development of background error covariances for the regional domain and background field type, a methodology for ingesting AIRS profiles as separate over-land and over-water retrievals with different error characteristics, and utilization of level-by-level quality indicators to select only the highest quality data. The assessment of the impact of the AIRS profiles on WRF-Var analyses will focus on intelligent use of the quality indicators, optimized tuning of the WRF-Var, and comparison of analysis soundings to radiosondes. The analyses are used to conduct a month-long series of regional forecasts over the continental U.S. The long-term impact of AIRS profiles on forecast will be assessed against NAM analyses and stage IV precipitation data.

Description: One of the most challenging weather forecast problems in the southeastern U.S. is daily summertime pulse convection. During the summer, atmospheric flow and forcing are generally weak in this region; thus, convection typically initiates in response to local forcing along sea/lake breezes, and other discontinuities often related to horizontal gradients in surface heating rates. Numerical simulations of pulse convection usually have low skill, even in local predictions at high resolution, due to the inherent chaotic nature of these precipitation systems. Forecast errors can arise from assumptions within physics parameterizations, model resolution limitations, as well as uncertainties in both the initial state of the atmosphere and land surface variables such as soil moisture and temperature. For this study, it is hypothesized that high-resolution, consistent representations of surface properties such as soil moisture and temperature, ground fluxes, and vegetation are necessary to better simulate the interactions between the land surface and atmosphere, and ultimately improve predictions of local circulations and summertime pulse convection. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center has been conducting studies to examine the impacts of high-resolution land surface initialization data generated by offline simulations of the NASA Land Informatiot~ System (LIS) on subsequent numerical forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (Case et al. 2008, to appear in the Journal of Hydrometeorology). Case et al. presents improvements to simulated sea breezes and surface verification statistics over Florida by initializing WRF with land surface variables from an offline LIS spin-up run, conducted on the exact WRF domain and resolution. The current project extends the previous work over Florida, focusing on selected case studies of typical pulse convection over the southeastern U.S., with an emphasis on improving local short-term WRF simulations over the Mobile, AL and Miami, FL NWS county warning areas. Future efforts may involve examining the impacts of assimilating remotely-sensed soil moisture data, and/or introducing weekly greenness vegetation fraction composites (as opposed to monthly climatologies) into ol'fline NASA LIS runs. Based on positive impacts, the offline LIS runs could be transitioned into an operational mode, providing land surface initialization data to NWS forecast offices in real time.

Description: Recent applications of a high resolution MODlS composite SST product have clearly shown the importance of developing high-resolution SST data sets for coastal applications and modeling. In general, coupling between the oceans and atmospheres has been closely linked to SST gradients and fronts, indicating a need for high resolution SSTs, specifically in the areas of large gradients associated with coastal regions. Thus an accurate determination of SST gradients has become critical for determining the appropriate air-sea coupling and the influence on ocean modeling. Recent research is focused on improving the accuracy and spatial coverage of the current operational MODIS SST composite product provided by the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) project and distributed to the community. GHRSST-PP MODlS data and microwave AMSR-E data are being combined to produce composite data sets for both the West Coast and East Coast of the United States, including the Gulf of Mexico. The use of 1 km MODIS data has explicit advantages over other SST products including its global coverage and high resolution. The AMSR-E data will reduce the latency of the composites. A strategy for utilizing the error characteristics contained in the GHRSST data has been developed. This strategy will include using the error characteristics directly to calculate weights in the SST composites, uncertainty maps based on the composite biases and RMS errors, and latency products calculated in the compositing process. Recent accomplishments include the development of an enhanced compositing approach based on the error-weighted combination of recent clear MODIS SST values, where the error contributions come from measurement error, potential cloud contamination, and data latency sources. Future plans call for the inclusion of AMSR-E SST values with appropriate weights based upon measurement accuracy, MODIS-AMSR-E SST bias, and latency.

Description: Real-time satellite information provides one of many data sources used by NWS weather forecast offices (WFOs) to diagnose current weather conditions and to assist in short-term forecast preparation. While GOES satellite data provides relatively coarse spatial resolution coverage of the continental U.S. on a 10-15 minute repeat cycle, polar orbiting imagery has the potential to provide snapshots of weather conditions at high-resolution in many spectral channels. Additionally, polar orbiting sounding data can provide additional information on the thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere in data sparse regions of at asynoptic observation times. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) project has demonstrated the utility of polar orbiting MODIS and AIRS data on the Terra and Aqua satellites to improve weather diagnostics and short-term forecasting on the regional and local scales. SPoRT scientists work directly forecasters at selected WFOS in the Southern Region (SR) to help them ingest these unique data streams into their AWIPS system, understand how to use the data (through on-site and distance learn techniques), and demonstrate the utility of these products to address significant forecast problems. This process also prepares forecasters for the use of similar observational capabilities from NPOESS operational sensors. NPOESS environmental data records (EDRs) from the Visible 1 Infrared Imager I Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrlS) and Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) instruments and additional value-added products produced by NESDIS will be available in near real-time and made available to WFOs to extend their use of NASA EOS data into the NPOESS era. These new data streams will be integrated into the NWs's new AWIPS II decision support tools. The AWIPS I1 system to be unveiled in WFOs in 2009 will be a JAVA-based decision support system which preserves the functionality of the existing systems and offers unique development opportunities for new data sources and applications in the Service Orientated Architecture ISOA) environment. This paper will highlight some of the SPoRT activities leading to the integration of VllRS and CrIS/ATMS data into the display capabilities of these new systems to support short-term forecasting problems at WFOs.

Description: The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is acting as a heritage and risk reduction instrument for the Cross-track lnfrared Sounder (CrIS) to be flown aboard the NPP and NPOESS satellites. The hyperspectral nature of AIRS and CrIS provides high-quality soundings that, along with their asynoptic observation time over North America, make them attractive sources to fill the spatial and temporal data voids in upper air temperature and moisture measurements for use in data assimilation and numerical weather prediction. Observations from AlRS can be assimilated either as direct radiances or retrieved thermodynamic profiles, and the Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center has used both data types to improve short-term (0-48h), regional forecasts. The purpose of this paper is to share SPORT'S experiences using AlRS radiances and retrieved profiles in regional data assimilation activities by showing that proper handling of issues-including cloud contamination and land emissivity characterization-are necessary to produce optimal analyses and forecasts.

Description: A search was conducted to locate periods of nearly simultaneous solar-wind and high latitude topside-ionospheric data during magnetic storms. The focus was on the 20-yr interval from 1965 to 1985 when both solar-wind and Alouette/ISIS topside-sounder data are potentially available. The search yielded 125 large magnetic storms (minimum Dst less than 100) and 280 moderate magnetic storms (minimum Dst between -60 and -100). Solar wind data were available for most, but not all, of these storms. A search of the available high-latitude topside electron-density Ne(h) profiles available from the National Space Science Data Center (NSSDC), both from manual inspection of 35-mm film ionograms in the 1960s and more recent auto-processing of ISIS-2 topside digital ionograms using the TOPIST software, during 9-day intervals associated with the 125 large magnetic storm minimum Dst times yielded the following results: 31 intervals had 10 or more manual-scaled profiles (21 intervals had more than 100 profiles and 5 of these had more than 1,000 profiles), and 34 intervals had 10 or more TOPIST profiles (2 intervals had more than 100 profiles). In addition, a search of the available Alouette-2, ISIS-1 and ISIS-2 digital ionograms during the above periods has yielded encouraging initial results in that many ISIS-1 ionograms were found for the early time intervals. Future work will include the search for 35-mm film ionograms during selected intervals. This presentation will illustrate the results of this investigation to date.

Description: In addition to the spectacular remote measurements from the Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration (IMAGE) satellite [Burch, Space Sci. Rev., 2003], the Radio Plasma Imager (RPI) on IMAGE had the capability of making accurate magnetospheric local electron-density and magnetic-field determinations in addition to obtaining remote electron-density profiles [Reinisch et al., GRL, 2001; Benson et al., JGR, 2003]. These determinations were made using interleaved passive and active modes of operation of the RPI; the former were used to produce dynamic spectra and the latter to produce plasmagrams during active sounding. The plasmagrams of particular interest in this investigation were produced during the apogee (8 RE) portion of the IMAGE orbit when the RPI often operated in a high-resolution mode (300 Hz frequency steps) designed for accurate frequency measurements of sounder-stimulated plasma resonances. Here we present examples from 2001 and 2002, when the IMAGE apogee was at high latitudes, of large increase the electron density and magnetic-field intensity (relative to quiet control conditions) during magnetic storms. During the 17 April 2002 storm, the electron density increased by about a factor of 4 and the magnetic-field intensity increased by nearly a factor of 2. During the much larger storm of 31 March 2001, the RPI data presented in Osherovich et al. [2007] indicates that the electron density increased by about a factor of 10.

Description: Advanced spaceborne instruments have the ability to improve the horizontal and vertical characterization of temperature and water vapor in the atmosphere through the explicit use of hyperspectral thermal infrared radiance measurements. The incorporation of these measurements into a data assimilation system provides a means to continuously characterize a three-dimensional, instantaneous atmospheric state necessary for the time integration of numerical weather forecasts. Measurements from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) are incorporated into the gridpoint statistical interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) assimilation system to provide improved initial conditions for use in a mesoscale modeling framework mimicking that of the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. The methodologies for the incorporation of the measurements into the system are presented. Though the measurements have been shown to have a positive impact in global modeling systems, the measurements are further constrained in this system as the model top is physically lower than the global systems and there is no ozone characterization in the background state. For a study period, the measurements are shown to have positive impact on both the analysis state as well as subsequently spawned short-term (0-48 hr) forecasts, particularly in forecasted geopotential height and precipitation fields. At 48 hr, height anomaly correlations showed an improvement in forecast skill of 2.3 hours relative to a system without the AIRS measurements. Similarly, the equitable threat and bias scores of precipitation forecasts of 25 mm (6 hr)-1 were shown to be improved by 8% and 7%, respectively.

Description: Seen by the human eye, precipitation particles are commonly drops of rain, flakes of snow, or lumps of hail that reach the ground. Remote sensors and numerical models usually deal with information about large collections of rain, snow, and hail (or graupel --also called soft hail ) in a volume of air. Therefore, the size and number of the precipitation particles and how particles interact, evolve, and fall within the volume of air need to be represented using physical laws and mathematical tools, which are often implemented as cloud and precipitation microphysical parameterizations in numerical models. To account for the complexity of the precipitation physical processes, scientists have developed various types of such schemes in models. The accuracy of numerical weather forecasting may vary dramatically when different types of these schemes are employed. Therefore, systematic evaluations of cloud and precipitation schemes are of great importance for improvement of weather forecasts. This study is one such endeavor; it pursues quantitative assessment of all the available cloud and precipitation microphysical schemes in a weather model (MM5) through comparison with the observations obtained by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) s and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) s Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) and microwave imager (TMI). When satellite sensors (like PR or TMI) detect information from precipitation particles, they cannot directly observe the microphysical quantities (e.g., water species phase, density, size, and amount etc.). Instead, they tell how much radiation is absorbed by rain, reflected away from the sensor by snow or graupel, or reflected back to the satellite. On the other hand, the microphysical quantities in the model are usually well represented in microphysical schemes and can be converted to radiative properties that can be directly compared to the corresponding PR and TMI observations. This study employs this method to evaluate the accuracy of the simulated radiative properties by the MM5 model with different microphysical schemes. It is found that the representations of particle density, size, and mass in the different schemes in the MM5 model determine the model s performance when predicting a winter storm over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Schemes lacking moderate density particles (i.e. graupel), with snow flakes that are too large, or with excessive mass of snow or graupel lead to degraded prediction of the radiative properties as observed by the TRMM satellite. This study demonstrates the uniqueness of the combination of both an active microwave sensor (PR) and passive microwave sensor (TMI) onboard TRMM on assessing the accuracy of numerical weather forecasting. It improves our understanding of the physical and radiative properties of different types of precipitation particles and provides suggestions for better representation of cloud and precipitation processes in numerical models. It would, ultimately, contribute to answering questions like "Why did it not rain when the forecast says it would?"