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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
  • Springer  (11)
  • AGU  (9)
  • Cambridge University Press  (1)
  • American Chemical Society
  • Annual Reviews
  • 2005-2009  (21)
  • 1980-1984
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Years
Year
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Volcanic hazard assessment is a basic ingredient for risk-based decision-making in land-use planning and emergency management. Volcanic hazard is defined as the probability of any particular area being affected by a destructive volcanic event within a given period of time (Fournier d’Albe 1979). The probabilistic nature of such an important issue derives from the fact that volcanic activity is a complex process, characterized by several and usually unknown degrees of freedom that are often linked by nonlinear relationships (e.g. Bak et al. 1988). Except in sporadic cases, the result of this complexity is an intrinsic, and perhaps unavoidable, unpredictability of the time evolution of the volcanic system from a deterministic point of view.
    Description: Published
    Description: open
    Keywords: model ; volcanic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a Bayesian event tree model for eruption forecasting (BET EF). The model represents a flexible tool to provide probabilities of any specific event at which we are interested in, by merging all the relevant available information, such as theoretical models, a priori beliefs, monitoring measures, and any kind of past data. BET EF is based on a Bayesian procedure and it relies on the fuzzy approach to manage monitoring data. The method deals with short- and long-term forecasting, therefore it can be useful in many practical aspects, as land use planning, and during volcanic emergencies. Finally, we provide the description of a free software package that provides a graphically supported computation of short- to long-term eruption forecasting, and a tutorial application to the recent MESIMEX exercise at Vesuvius.
    Description: Published
    Description: on line first
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: Eruption forecasting ; Long- and short-term volcanic hazard ; Bayesian inference ; Event tree ; Fuzzy sets ; MESIMEX ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Forecasting the dispersal of ash from explosive volcanoes is a scientific challenge to modern volcanology. It also represents a fundamental step in mitigating the potential impact of volcanic ash on urban areas and transport routes near explosive volcanoes. To this end we developed a web-based early-warning modeling tool named MAFALDA (Modeling And Forecasting Ash Loading and Dispersal in the Atmosphere) able to quantitatively forecast ash concentrations in the air and on the ground. The main features of MAFALDA are: the usage of (1) a dispersal model, named VOL-CALPUFF (Barsotti et al. 2008) that couples the column ascent phase with the ash-cloud transport and (2) high-resolution weather forecasting data, the capability to run and merge multiple scenarios, and the web-based structure of the procedure that makes it suitable as an early-warning tool. MAFALDA produces plots for a detailed analysis of ash-cloud dynamics and ground deposition, as well as synthetic 2D maps of areas potentially affected by dangerous concentrations of ash. A first application of MAFALDA to the long-lasting weak plumes produced at Mt. Etna (Italy) is presented. A similar tool can be useful to civil protection authorities and volcanic observatories in reducing the impact of the eruptive events. MAFALDA can be accessed at http://mafalda.pi.ingv.it.
    Description: Published
    Description: Q12019
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: volcanic ash forecast ; numerical modeling ; early warning modeling tool ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: No abstract
    Description: Published
    Description: L08312
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: landslide tsunami ; Mt. Etna ; paleo-tsunami deposits ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Assessment of the hazard from lava flow inundation at the active volcano of Mt. Etna (Italy) was performed by calculating the probability of lava flow inundation at each position on the volcano. A probability distribution for the formation of new vents was calculated using geological and volcanological data from past eruptions. The simulated lava flows from these vents were emplaced using a maximum expected flow length derived from geological data on previous lava flows. Simulations were run using DOWNFLOW, a DEM-based model designed to predict lava flow paths. Different eruptive scenarios were simulated by varying the elevation and probability distribution of eruptive points. Inundation maps show that the city of Catania and the coastal zone may only be impacted by flows erupted from low-altitude vents (〈 1500 m elevation), and that flank eruptions at elevations 〉 2000 m preferentially inundate the northeast and southern sectors of the volcano as well as the Valle del Bove. Eruptions occurring in the summit area (〉 3000 m elevation) pose no threat to the local population. Discrepancies between the results of simple, hydrological models and those of the DOWNFLOW model show that hydrological approaches are inappropriate when dealing with Etnean lava flows. Because hydrological approaches are not designed to reproduce the full complexity of lava flow spreading, they underestimate the catchment basins when the fluid has a complex rheology.
    Description: In press
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: lava flows ; DOWNFLOW ; hazard ; Mt. Etna ; Sicily ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Twenty eruptive events from the Northeast Crater of Stromboli volcano recorded by a thermal monitoring camera in early 2004 were analysed in order to understand the eruptive dynamics. Selected eventswere chosen to be typical of explosions that characterize the steady activity of Stromboli in terms of jet height and duration. Most of the explosions consisted of clast-rich single bursts, originating from the same vent inside the Northeast Crater. Conspicuous ash emission was scarce. Eruptions were preceded by the flashing of a perturbation wave characterized by low temperatures and an average propagation velocity of about 35–100 m s−1. This perturbation was thought to be caused by the bursting of the gas slug at the bottom of the crater and is interpreted as an air wave. This was immediately followed by the expansion of a jet of ‘hot’ gas and particles, at a velocity of 35–75 m s−1. Ejecta coarser than 138 cm appeared ∼1.6–2 s after the onset of the explosion, moving at a variable velocity (30–60 m s−1). Eruptive events were either vertical or inclined 7–13◦ towards the NNW. This inclination is thought to be a consequence either of the morphology of the conduit, following modest rock falls that partially obstructed the uppermost part of the crater, or of the displacement of the internal conduit due to the explosive activity of the volcano. The instability of the summit area is a further possible cause of the deformation of the conduit.
    Description: This work was partially funded by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia and the Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, Italy, project INGVDPC V2
    Description: Published
    Description: 591–601
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: 1.10. TTC - Telerilevamento
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: explosive dynamic ; thermal video monitoring ; volcano-tectonic structures ; volcano collapses ; Stromboli ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.11. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.08. Volcanic arcs ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.02. Experimental volcanism ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.03. Magmas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.04. Thermodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Flank instability and collapse are observed at many volcanoes. Among these, Mt. Etna is characterized by the spreading of its eastern and southern flanks. The eastern spreading area is bordered to the north by the EW-trending Pernicana Fault System (PFS). During the 20022003 Etna eruption, ground fracturing along the PFS migrated eastward from the NE Rift, to as far as the 18 km distant coastline. The deformation consisted of dextral en-echelon segments, with sinistral and normal kinematics. Both of these components of displacement were one order of magnitude larger (~1 m) in the western, previously known, portion of the PFS with respect to the newly surveyed (~9 km long) eastern section (~0.1 m). This eastern section is located along a pre-existing, but previously unknown, fault, where displaced man-made structures give overall slip rates (11.9 cm/year), only slightly lower than those calculated for the western portion (1.42.3 cm/year). After an initial rapid motion during the first days of the 20022003 eruption, movement of the western portion of the PFS decreased dramatically, while parts of the eastern portion continued to move. These data suggest a model of spreading of the eastern flank of Etna along the PFS, characterized by eruptions along the NE Rift, instantaneous, short-lived, meter-scale displacements along the western PFS and more long-lived centimeter-scale displacements along the eastern PFS. The surface deformation then migrated southwards, reactivating, one after the other, the NNWSSE-trending Timpe and Trecastagni faults, with displacements of ~0.1 and ~0.04 m, respectively. These structures, along with the PFS, mark the boundaries of two adjacent blocks, moving at different times and rates. The new extent of the PFS and previous activity over its full length indicate that the sliding eastern flank extends well below the Ionian Sea. The clustering of seismic activity above 4 km b.s.l. during the eruption suggests a deep décollement for the moving mass. The collected data thus suggests a significant movement (volume 〉1,100 km3) of the eastern flank of Etna, both on-shore and off-shore.
    Description: Published
    Description: 417-430
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: Volcano spreading ; Fracturing ; Mt. Etna ; Pernicana Fault System ; NE Rift ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The 2002–2003 Mount Etna eruption and the associated deformation provide a unique possibility to study the relationships between volcanism and volcano instability. The sequence started with movement of the eastern volcano flank and was associated with earthquakes and the formation of surface ruptures. Then the eruption occurred from fissures at the north and south rift zones and was followed by additional flank movement, seismic swarms, and surface ruptures. The overall area of flank movement implicated more than 700 km2. In this paper we investigate how episodes of magmatic events (eruptions and intrusions) and flank movement interact. In three-dimensional numerical models we simulate the volcano-tectonic events and calculate changes in the static stress field. The models suggest that the 2002–2003 events are the result of interrelated processes consisting of (1) the preeruptive intrusion of magma and inflation of the volcano, which induced (2) the movement of the volcano east flank, (3) facilitated the eruption, and (4) led to the slip of a much larger part of the eastern and southeastern flanks. Understanding the precise interconnectivity of these processes may help to forecast the behavior during future volcanic crisis at Mount Etna, which is crucial in minimizing volcanic and seismic hazards on the highly populated eastern sector of the volcano.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1-12
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: Mount Etna ; flank instability ; volcano deformation ; volcano-tectonic interaction ; elastic stress field modeling ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.03. Magmas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Hydrological and geochemical studies performed on Lake Specchio di Venere on Pantelleria island (Italy) indicate that this endorheic basin has been formed through upwelling of the water table, and that it is continuously fed by the thermal springs situated on its shores. The lake is periodically stratified both thermally and in salinity, albeit this stratification is rather unstable over time since meteorological events such as strong rain or wind can determine the mixing of its waters. Periodical analyses of the lake water chemistry show large variations of the salt content due to the yearly evaporation-rain dilution cycle. These processes are also responsible for the saline stratification during steady meteorological conditions. The mineralogical characterisation of the bottom sediments shows the almost exclusive presence of neoformation minerals, mainly carbonates, formed in response to the pH gradient between spring- (pH≈6) and lake-waters (pH≈9). Finally, the CO2 partial pressures in the lake water slightly exceeding the atmospheric one, are due to the large amounts of CO2 brought to the lake through the bubbling free gas phase of the thermal springs. Nevertheless the high pH value of the lake water, its small volume and its periodical mixing prevent dangerous built up of this gas.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1.2. TTC - Sorveglianza geochimica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Pantelleria island ; volcanic lake ; gas hazard ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.02. Hydrology::03.02.02. Hydrological processes: interaction, transport, dynamics ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.03. Chemistry of waters ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.12. Fluid Geochemistry ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Volcanic and geothermal areas are one of the major natural sources of H2S to the atmosphere. Its environmental impact is often the main cause of the opposition to the development of geothermal energy exploitation programs. In this paper we analyze the air concentrations and dispersion pattern of naturally emitted H2S at the geothermal area of Sousaki (Corinthia, Greece). Measurements, made with a network of passive samplers, evidence a rapid decrease of concentration values away from the emission points. The fact that the decrease is more pronounced in the summer with respect to the winter indicates that it is not only due to a dilution effect, but also to redox reactions favoured by higher temperatures and intense sunlight typical of the summer period.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1723-1728
    Description: 1.2. TTC - Sorveglianza geochimica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Hydrogen sulphide ; Environmental impact of volcanic activity ; Gas hazard ; Passive samplers ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.03. Pollution ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.07. Volcanic effects ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.12. Fluid Geochemistry ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The use of a hand-held thermal camera during the 2002–2003 Stromboli effusive eruption proved essential in tracking the development of flow field structures and in measuring related eruption parameters, such as the number of active vents and flow lengths. The steep underlying slope on which the flow field was emplaced resulted in a characteristic flow field morphology. This comprised a proximal shield, where flow stacking and inflation caused piling up of lava on the relatively flat ground of the vent zone, that fed a medial–distal lava flow field. This zone was characterized by the formation of lava tubes and tumuli forming a complex network of tumuli and flows linked by tubes. Most of the flow field was emplaced on extremely steep slopes and this had two effects. It caused flows to slide, as well as flow, and flow fronts to fail frequently, persistent flow front crumbling resulted in the production of an extensive debris field. Channel-fed flows were also characterized by development of excavated debris levees in this zone (Calvari et al. 2005). Collapse of lava flow fronts and inflation of the upper proximal lava shield made volume calculation very difficult. Comparison of the final field volume with that expecta by integrating the lava effusion rates through time suggests a loss of ~70% erupted lava by flow front crumbling and accumulation as debris flows below sea level. Derived relationships between effusion rate, flow length, and number of active vents showed systematic and correlated variations with time where spreading of volume between numerous flows caused an otherwise good correlation between effusion rate, flow length to break down. Observations collected during this eruption are useful in helping to understand lava flow processes on steep slopes, as well as in interpreting old lava–debris sequences found in other steep-sided volcanoes subject to effusive activity.
    Description: Published
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Lava flow field ; Morphology ; Tumuli ; Lava tubes ; Effusion rate ; Rheology ; Stromboli volcano ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: A thermal modeling of the Vesuvius is presented, based on its magmatic and volcanic history. A 2D numerical scheme has been developed to evaluate the heat transfer inside and around a magma body, the latent heat of crystallization and the inputs of magma from the asthenosphere to a crustal reservoir. Assuming a ratio 〉1 between velocities of magma ascending in the conduit and magma laterally displaced in the reservoir, the results indicate that, after 40 ka, the reservoir is vertically thermally zoned. As a consequence it hosts magma batches that can individually differentiate, mix and be contaminated by the crust, and produce the spectrum of isotopic compositions of the Vesuvian products. The thermal model reproduces the geothermal gradient and the brittle-ductile transition (250– 300 C) at 6 km of depth (the maximum depth of earthquake foci) only after 0.5–1 Ma, implying a long lived magma chamber below the volcano.
    Description: Published
    Description: L17302
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: NONE ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.02. Geological and geophysical evidences of deep processes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.05. Mineralogy and petrology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We model the location, geometry and density of the source of the recent geological unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) by inverting levelling, trilateration and gravity measurements collected between 1980 and 1995. The best fitting source for the 1980–84 inflation is a horizontal penny-shaped crack with a density 142 to 1115 kg/m3. The source best fitting the deflation period (1990–95) is a vertical spheroid with density between 902 and 1015 kg/m3. These results exclude the intrusion of magma, and indicate the migration of fluid to and from the caldera hydrothermal system as the cause of ground deformation and consequent unrest.
    Description: Published
    Description: L01307
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: NONE ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The catastrophic events that occurred in May 1998 in the area of Sarno (Southern Italy) highlight the destructive potential of debris flows, even when they are of relatively low magnitude. More than 130 people were killed and severe property damage took place when volcaniclastic debris flows triggered by heavy rainfall inundated various towns located in piedmont areas. This work investigates the suitability of LAHARZ, a GIS-assisted method for the automatic delineation of lahar inundation areas, for reproducing the May 1998 flows at Sarno. It was found that recalibration of the empirical relationship employed by LAHARZ is required in order to realistically hind-cast the inundation areas of considered events. The potential for further improvements in prediction outputs for this type of geomorphic setting is discussed, taking into account the observed lower mobility of these small volcaniclastic debris flows as compared to lahars of similar size.
    Description: Published
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Sarno ; LAHARZ ; Debris flows ; Lahars ; Debris flow modelling ; Hazard assessment ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: An immersed boundary technique suitable for the solution of multiphase compressible equations of gas–particle flows of volcanic origin over complex 2D and 3D topographies has been developed and applied. This procedure combines and extends different existing methods designed for incompressible flows. Furthermore, the extension to compressible multiphase flows is achieved through a flux correction term in the mass continuity equations of the immersed cells that accounts for density variations in the partial volumes. The technique is computationally accurate and inexpensive, if compared to the use and implementation of the finite-volume technique on unstructured meshes. The first applications that we consider are the simulations of pyroclastic density currents generated by the collapse of a volcanic column in 2D axisymmetric geometry and by a dome explosion in 3D. Results show that the immersed boundary technique can significantly improve the description of the no-slip flow condition on an irregular topography even with relatively coarse meshes. Although the net effect of the present technique on the results is difficult to quantify in general terms, its adoption is recommended any time that cartesian grids are used to describe the large-scale dynamics of pyroclastic density currents over volcano topographies.
    Description: Published
    Description: 183-198
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Pyroclastic density currents ; Compressible flows ; Cartesian grids ; Finite-volume method ; Immersed boundary method ; Numerical simulation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The Campania Region (southern Italy) is characterized by the frequent occurrence of volcaniclastic debris flows that damage property and loss of life (more than 170 deaths between 1996 and 1999). Historical investigation allowed the identification of more than 500 events during the last four centuries; in particular, more than half of these occurred in the last 100 years, causing hundreds of deaths. The aim of this paper is to quantify debris-flow hazard potential in the Campania Region. To this end, we compared several elements such as the thickness distribution of pyroclastic fall deposits from the last 18 ka of the Vesuvius and Phlegrean Fields volcanoes, the slopes of relieves, and the historical record of volcaniclastic debris flows from A.D. 1500 to the present. Results show that flow occurrence is not only a function of the cumulative thickness of past pyroclastic fall deposits but also depends on the age of emplacement. Deposits younger than 10 ka (Holocene eruptions) apparently increase the risk of debris flows, while those older than 10 ka (Late Pleistocene eruptions) seem to play a less prominent role, which is probably due to different climatic conditions, and therefore different rates of erosion of pyroclastic falls between the Holocene and the Late Pleistocene. Based on the above considerations, we compiled a large-scale debris-flow hazard map of the study area in which five main hazard zones are identified: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high.
    Description: Published
    Description: 157-167
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: 5.4. TTC - Sistema Informativo Territoriale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Debris flows ; Explosive eruptions ; Hazard mapping ; Vesuvius volcano ; Erosion ; Campania region ; Southern Italy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a Bayesian event tree model for eruption forecasting (BET_EF). The model represents a flexible tool to provide probabilities of any specific event at which we are interested in, by merging all the relevant available information, such as theoretical models, a priori beliefs, monitoring measures, and any kind of past data. BET_EF is based on a Bayesian procedure and it relies on the fuzzy approach to manage monitoring data. The method deals with short- and long-term forecasting, therefore it can be useful in many practical aspects, as land use planning, and during volcanic emergencies. Finally, we provide the description of a free software package that provides a graphically supported computation of short- to long-term eruption forecasting, and a tutorial application to the recent MESIMEX exercise at Vesuvius.
    Description: Published
    Description: 623-632
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: eruption forecasting ; event tree ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: No abstract
    Description: Published
    Description: L02609
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Mt. Etna tsunami ; homogenite ; 365 A.D. tsunami ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We consider the process of slow extrusion of very viscous magma that forms lava domes. Dome-building eruptions are commonly associated with hazardous phenomena, in- cluding pyroclastic flows generated by dome collapses, explosive eruptions and volcanic blasts. These eruptions commonly display fairly regular alternations between pe- riods of high and low or no activity with time scales from hours to years. Usually hazardous phenomena are asso- ciated with periods of high magma discharge rate, thus, understanding the causes of pulsatory activity during ex- trusive eruptions is an important step towards forecasting volcanic behavior, especially the transition to explosive ac- tivity when magma discharge rate increases by a few orders of magnitude. In recent years the risks have increased be- cause the population density in the vicinity of many active volcanoes has increased.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: open
    Keywords: Volcanic Eruptions ; Cyclicity ; During Lava ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.04. Thermodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright (2009) American Geophysical Union.
    Description: This work developed a quantitative approach for evaluating the reliability of lava flow simulation codes. In particular, it applied the LavaSIM code to simulate the main lava flow emplaced on the south flank of Mount Etna (Italy) between 18 July and 9 August 2001 which represents an ideal test case for validating numerical codes. LavaSIM is the only full 3-D model and is thus able to account for the vertical variation of lava properties such as temperature, viscosity, velocity, and liquidus or solidus state. It presents the most complete description of the lava cooling, and its greatest peculiarity is the potential to discriminate between cells filled by liquid or solid lava. Thirteen simulation tests were performed varying the main input parameters, and they were checked thanks to the availability of syneruption maps, defining the lava flow planar expansion throughout its whole emplacement. Two parameters were adopted for quantitatively evaluate the agreement between real and simulated flows: the percent length ratio (PLR), here defined, and the fitness function (e1). Their joint analysis allowed checking both the simulated lateral spreading, through e1, and the flow lengthening, through PLR. The simulated flows follow a path very similar to the observed one, giving a good fitting of the lateral spreading, though the simulations are, after the second day, normally longer and thinner. The temporal evolution of the three-dimensional distribution of liquid lava and crust was also analyzed. Finally, the analysis presented here demonstrated the great capability of the LavaSIM simulation code.
    Description: Published
    Description: Q09003
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: lava flow ; quantitative assessment of simulation reliability ; 2001 Etna eruption ; LavaSIM ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2022-06-08
    Description: No abstract
    Description: Published
    Description: 318
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: N/A or not JCR
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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