ALBERT

Description: ... Overall, An Introduction to Programming with Mathematica is a useful and readable book that could serve as the text for a generic programming class, a supporting text for a class on programming for geoscientists, or an introduction for experienced geoscience programmers looking for an easily readable summary of Mathematica's programming language. Experienced Mathematica programmers may find it useful as a refresher. The book's principal drawbacks are the high price of Mathematica for those who do not already have the software (although a modestly priced student version is available) and, for geoscientists in particular, a lack of relevant example problems

Description: Fundamentals of Structural Geology provides a new framework for the investigation of geological structures by integrating field mapping and mechanical analysis. Assuming a basic knowledge of physical geology, introductory calculus and physics, it emphasizes the observational data, modern mapping technology, principles of continuum mechanics, and the mathematical and computational skills, necessary to quantitatively map, describe, model, and explain deformation in Earth's lithosphere. By starting from the fundamental conservation laws of mass and momentum, the constitutive laws of material behavior, and the kinematic relationships for strain and rate of deformation, the authors demonstrate the relevance of solid and fluid mechanics to structural geology. This book offers a modern quantitative approach to structural geology for advanced students and researchers in structural geology and tectonics. It is supported by a website hosting images from the book, additional colour images, student exercises and MATLAB scripts. Solutions to the exercises are available to instructors

Description: Males of Eledone cirrhosa grow to a size little over 600 g and normally have well-developed, and presumably active, reproductive organs from about 200 g upwards. Total weight of the genital bag is well correlated with total body weight (r= 0·906). Growth of the testis precedes that of the spermatophoric sac, and the size of neither of these reproductive components is predictable from body weight. The sizes of these organs and the estimated number and length of stored spermatophores are given for 100 g intervals of total body weight. No evidence was obtained for a seasonal trend in male maturity.

Description: Serological methods for prey identification have been applied to detection of residues ofsandeel (Ammodytidae) protein in faeces of common seals (Phoca vitulina) and grey seals(Halichoerus grypus) from the Moray Firth, north-east Scotland. Antisera raised to muscleprotein from Ammodytes marinus were evaluated by testing their reactions with proteinextracts made from a range of North Sea fish species and protein residues in in vitro digestates,seal digestive tracts and seal faeces. It was concluded that, using fused rocketimmuno-electrophoresis, linkage of precipitin peaks from unknown samples with peaksfrom standard sandeel extract was a reliable indicator of the presence of sandeel in theunknown sample. Seasonal variation in the incidence of sandeels in common seal diet in theMoray Firth was examined by identifying otoliths, bones, and proteins, and all threemethods indicated that sandeels occurred in the majority of samples tested in the summer,but were less important during the winter. Proteins were detected in fewer samples thanotoliths, particularly in February and March. Possible reasons for this difference arediscussed. Serological identification of sandeel proteins is potentially applicable to dietarystudies on all marine predators.

Description: Age and growth were estimated in the European squid, Loligo vulgaris, by examining growth increments in the statoliths of 203 specimens collected from off the French Mediterranean coast. Length and increment data were analyzed assuming that the increments were formed daily. The relationships between age and length showed that: growth rate varied considerably among individuals; growth was double exponential; the squids grew on average to 240 mm ML at 240 d from hatching, with a maximum of 350 mm at 240 d; the life span is probably about one year.

Description: Some of the limits to the use of serology to identify prey species in the digestive tracts of cephalopods have been evaluated. Cuttlefish, Sepia officinalis, were given meals of krill slurry (Euphausia superba). Protein extracts of contents from four regions of the digestive tract, stomach, caecum, digestive gland and intestine, were tested for prey antigenicity. Digestion times (loss of antigenicity) ranged from 1 to 8 h depending on sampling site. Stomach and caecum emptied rapidly, but meal antigenicity persisted longer in the digestive gland. The Sepia experiments provide a basis for interpretation of results from natural predation by cephalopods).

Description: The stomachsof 23 striped dolphins (Stenella coeruleoalba Meyen, 1833, Cetacea), stranded along the Ligurian coast (western Mediterranean Sea), contained 32 species of cephalopods, crustaceans and fishes, totalling an estimated 2,723 prey specimens representing about 36 kg in weight. Cephalopods and bony fishes were equally important in the diet (50%). Todarodes sagittatus (34.5%) and Micromesistius poutassou (25.9%) were found to be the most important food species. Other species belonging to six cephalopod families, three crustacean families and nine bony fish families, contributed to the diet with variable numbers, weights, and occurrences, demonstrating the opportunistic character of striped dolphin feeding.

Description: New light is shed on Worthington's concept of the North Atlantic circulation, postulating the existence of two anticyclonic gyres. This concept, which seems to have been laid to rest in the last decade, has now been reinforced by the results of a simple linear Sverdrup circulation model yielding a band of westward transport all across the North Atlantic at about the Azores latitude. This narrow band is called the Azores Countercurrent (AzCC) and matches the position of westward flow required by Worthington's “northern gyre.” An anomaly in the meridional change of the wind-stress curl in the eastern North Atlantic has been identified as the driving mechanism. A comparison with observations shows that the AzCC is verified in many analyses of historical datasets and synoptic surveys. A lack of the AzCC in other analyses is probably due to missing meridional sections, strong smoothing, and the superimposed Ekman flow close to the sea surface directed to the southeast. The AzCC has not been verified in low-resolution general circulation models applying simplified wind-stress fields and large friction coefficients, but there is evidence for its existence in recent high-resolution models driven by realistic wind stresses. Based on these findings, a new pattern for the wind-driven upper ocean circulation of the midlatitude North Atlantic is presented.

Description: Thirty-four adult individuals of Loligo forbesi (males and females with dorsal mantle lengths from 27–77 cm) were observed in captivity in a 3 m diameter closed sea-water system on Faial Island, Azores. Squids were caught by jigging and were fed with horse mackerel (Trachurus picturatus) and chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus), either alive or dead. The maximum survival was 73 days. Feeding behaviour was dependent upon both the size of prey and its state of preservation;e.g. the squid would eat the head of small fish (〈 about 15 cm), reject the head of medium-sized fish (about 15–35 cm) and would eat only the dorsal part of a big fish (〉 about 35 cm) or a fish poorly preserved. Seventeen chromatic, 9 postural and 6 movement components of body patterns were observed and described. Conspecific interactions considered to be aggression and dominance were observed among males; no such interactions occurred when one male and two females were kept together. Body patterns in relation to relaxation, stress, shock, feeding, locomotion and aggression are also described.

Description: The presence of Stoloteuthis leucoptera in the Mediterranean is recorded on the basis of three specimens, including an adult male, caught by IKMT and by commercial otter-trawl in the Ligurian Sea. The hypothesis of a recent immigration is discussed. The list of Mediterranean cephalopods (Mangold Wirz, 1963; Torchio, 1968; Bello, 1986; Mangold & Boletzsky, 1987) includes the Sepiolidae of the subfamily Heteroteuthinae, whose members are supposed to be pelagic throughout their life cycle. Mangold Wirz (1963) recognizes in the Mediterranean fauna the unique species Heteroteuthis dispar, the other authors include H. atlantis Voss, which Voss himself (1955) reported at Messina. To this group may now be added Stoloteuthis leucoptera (Verrill, 1878) a species until now recorded in limited Atlantic areas. Verrill (1881) wrote “This species is an exceedingly beautiful one, when living, owing to the elegance and brilliancy of its colours and the gracefulness of its movements. In swimming it moves its fins in a manner analogous to the motion of the wings of a butterfly.”

Description: We present chemical data on magmatically heterogeneous pyroclastic deposits of late Quaternary age erupted from zoned magma systems underlying Tenerife (Canary Islands), Sao Miguel and Faial (Azores), and Vesuvius. The most fractionated magmas present at each centre are respectively Na-rich phonolite, trachyte, and K-rich phonolite. Within any one deposit, chemical variation is either accompanied by changes in the phenocryst assemblage (petrographic zonation) or is largely manifested in trace element abundances, unaccompanied by any petrographic change (occult zonation). Zoning is analogous to that in calc-alkaline systems where the most fractionated products are high-silica rhyolites. When a range of magma types are considered, a correlation emerges between roofward depletion of trace elements (especially REE) in the zoned system and compatability of those same trace elements in the accessory phenocryst phases present. Thus, allanite- or chevkinite-bearing rhyolitic systems are light-REE depleted roofwards, the sphene-bearing Tenerife system is middle-REE depleted roofwards, the melanite-bearing Vesuvius system is heavy-REE depleted roofwards, while the Azores systems, which lack these phases, display roofward REE enrichment. Therefore, the behaviour of trace elements may in each case be explained by fractionation of observed phenocryst assemblages. The resemblance between features of zoned magma systems and published work on the dynamic consequences of cooling saturated aqueous solutions prompts us to suggest that sidewall crystallization and consequent boundary-layer uprise to form a capping layer at top of the system may be a plausible mechanism for the generation of both petrographic and occult zonation. Reverse zoning occurs among the first-erupted tephra of some deposits, demonstrating that the most highly differentiated magma available is not always the first to be tapped during an eruption from a zoned system.

Description: Changes in the relative size of the ovary, oviducal glands and eggs are described for Eledone cirrhosa captured from the North Sea off Aberdeen over a 3 year period (N = 488). The analysis is based only on freshly caught animals, excluding those held in aquarium conditions (〉 5 days). Ovary enlargement and egg size estimates are used as indices of sexual maturity. Between 0–15% and 18–95% of total body weight is contributed by the ovary. Maximum egg length in the ovary ranges up to 7 mm. On these criteria, sexual maturation typically occurs at body sizes between 400–1000 g although some animals of 1000–1200 g are found showing no evidence of ovary enlargement. The majority of the monthly sample is always immature but maturation can apparently occur at almost any time of the year. Increase in mean ovary index and mean values for egg size are strongly seasonal and indicate a peak incidence of sexual maturity over 2–3 months in the July-September period. Spawning is presumed to follow within 1 month. Estimates of the fecundity of the females, based on the egg sample from the ovary, range from 2·2 × 103 to 55 × 10 3 eggs with a mean of 11 × 10 3 and a mode of 7·5 × 10 3 eggs.

Description: Female Eledone cirrhosa held in aquarium conditions for periods of time of five daysand over show relatively enlarged ovary sizes. Values for ovary index considerably exceed thoseof freshly caught animals and the incidence of the final stage of maturity, in which eggs pack the oviducts, is greater. A comparison of maturity indices for fresh and aquarium males was inconclusive. The range of factors associated with aquarium conditions is briefly reviewed and it is concluded that studies of cephalopod reproductive maturation must distinguish fresh and aquarium animals. Introduction External factors effective in inducing sexual maturation in cephalopods have been suggested several times. The influence of the absence of light has been implicated since the experiments of Wells & Wells (1959) showed that blinded Octopus vulgar is matured precociously. An effect of short day length in stimulating the optic glands of Sepia has been found by Defretin & Richard (1967) and Richard (1967) but this is not clearly the case for Octopus (Buckley, 1977). Octopuses kept in aquarium conditions for lengthy periods are said to have larger relative gonad sizes than those fresh from the sea (Wells & Wells, 1975). One of the factors associated with aquarium conditions is often a degree of starvation, and this circumstance alone is held to be a factor in inducing precocious sexual maturation in Eledone (Mangold & Boucher-Rodoni, 1973). In the course of recent studies on the growth and reproduction of Eledone cirrhosa from the North Sea (Boyle & Knobloch, 1982,1983,1984) animals which had remained in aquarium conditions for 5 days or over were separated from the analysis.

Description: Samples of two loliginid squids Alloteuthis africana and A. subulata were collected from the continental shelf off the west Sahara in August-September 1987. Statoliths were taken from 124 specimens and processed using statolith ageing techniques. Statoliths of both species were very similar in shape. In the ground statolith, growth increments were examined and grouped into four growth zones distinguished mainly by the width of the increments. Age of adult mature males of both species did not exceed eight months, that of females six months. Alloteuthis africana grew faster than A. subulata in weight and, particularly, in length. At age 180 d the mantle of A. africana was twice as long and the body weight 1·2–1·5 times as large. Both species matured over a wide range of sizes and ages (from 120 to 180 d). The life span of A. africana and A. subulata hatching between January and May on the west Saharan shelf is about six months, much shorter than that of A. subulata in its northern temperate range.

Description: A new species of a monogenean Isancistrum subulatae (Gyrodactylidae) has been discovered on the arms and tentacles of the cephalopod mollusc Alloteuthis subulata at Plymouth and I. loliginis, on the gills of the same host, has been re-discovered for the first time since its original description in 1912. I. subulatae, like other gyrodactylids, is viviparous, and has been shown by experiments to transfer to new hosts by contagion. In nature such transfers probably take place during copulation of the hosts and since the parasite may occur in numbers of several thousands per host, it may thereby constitute a venereal disease.

Description: A sigma-coordinate, primitive equation ocean circulation model is used to explore the problem of the remnant generation of trapped waves about a tall, circular, isolated seamount by an incident oscillatory barotropic current. The numerical solutions are used to extend prior studies into the fully nonlinear regime, and in particular to quantify and interpret the occurrence of residual circulation. Specific attention is also devoted to the dependence of the resonance and rectification mechanisms on stratification, forcing frequency, and choice of subgrid-scale viscous closure. Resonantly generated trapped waves of significant amplitude are found to occur broadly in parameter space; a precise match between the frequency of the imposed incident current and the frequency of the trapped free wave is not necessary to produce substantial excitation of the trapped wave. The maximum amplification factors produced in these numerical solutions, O(100) times the strength of the incident current, are consistent with previous studies. In the presence of nonlinear advection, strong residual currents are produced. The time-mean circulation about the seamount is dominated by a strong bottom-intensified, anticyclonic circulation closely trapped to the seamount. Maximum local time-mean current amplitudes are found to be as large as 37% of the magnitude of the propagating waves. In addition to the strong anticyclonic residual flow, there is a weaker secondary circulation in the vertical-radial plane characterized by downwelling over the top of the seamount at all depths. Maximum vertical downwelling rates of several tens of meters per day occur at the summit of the seamount. The vertical mass flux implied by this systematic downwelling is balanced by a slow radial flux of mass directed outward along the flanks of the seamount. Time-mean budgets for the radial and azimuthal components of momentum show that horizontal eddy fluxes of momentum are responsible for transporting net radial and azimuthal momentum from the far field to the upper flanks of the seamount. There, Coriolis and pressure gradient forces provide the dominant balances in the radial direction. However, the Coriolis force and viscous effects provide the primary balance for the azimuthal component.

Description: North Atlantic air-sea heat and freshwater flux data from several sources are used to estimate the conversion rate of water from one density to another throughout the range of sea surface density. This cross-isopycnal mass flux varies greatly over the ocean, with a maximum of 32.2 × 106 m3 s−1 at σ = 26.1 kg m−3 (toward greater densities) and a minimum of −7.6 × 106 m3 s−1 (toward lesser densities) at σ = 23.0 kg m−3. The air-sea fluxes force water to accumulate in three density bands: one at the lowest sea surface densities generated by heating; one centered near the density of subtropical mode water; and one spanning subpolar mode water densities. The transfer of water to the highest and lowest densities is balanced by mixing, which returns water to the middle density range, and also by boundary sources or sinks. Integrating the cross-isopycnal flux over all densities gives an annual average sinking of about 9 × 1O6 m3 s−1, which presumably escapes across the equator and must be balanced by a similar inflow. Comparison with estimates from tracer studies suggests that the renewal of tracer characteristics at a given density may occur without the existence of an annual average mass source at that density, because along- and cross-isopycnal mixing can renew a tracer without supplying mass.

Description: Samples of female lllex argentinus were taken from the catch of a Japanese squid jigging vessel on the Patagonian Shelf during March 1986. Morphometrics of the somatic and reproductive organ systems and the histological structure of the mantle in relation to maturation were examined. The data suggest that growth and maturation occur simultaneously during most of the time that lllex argentinus females are on the feeding grounds. In a squid of a ‘standard’ mantle length the whole body mass increases relative to mantle length during maturation and growth of the reproductive organs. This is accompanied by a small but significant decrease in the relative mass of the mantle, head and viscera whilst the mass of the digestive gland remains constant. Although mantle mass of a ‘standard’ female squid decreases relative to mantle length with maturity this is not associated with degeneration of the mantle muscles. Energy and nutrient resources for maturation are apparently derived from the squid's food, not from reserves, and during the course of maturation there is an increasing shift of emphasis from somatic growth to production of gonad and accessory reproductive organs.

Description: The timing of spawning and recruitment in the squid Loligo forbesi in Scottish waters is described on the basis of data from three sources: monthly samples of squid caught by commercial trawls (1986–1988), egg masses found by fishermen (1987–1991), and statistical data on animals caught by research trawls (1978–1987). Spawning females were present in samples from December to June, with peak spawning occurring in March. Most records of egg masses were from these months, but eggs were also found in August and September. These results suggest that there is an extended spawning season. Small squid (≤100 mm dorsal mantle length) were rarely present in commercial samples, but were recorded in research samples almost all year round. Thus there appears to be more or less continuous recruitment into the catchable population. The results of the present study are consistent with published data from other parts of the geographic range in that there is a regular seasonal peak in spawning, and spawning adults disappear from the population in summer. Further interpretation of the life-cycle of this species is not justified on the basis of current knowledge, and more information is needed on migrations, geographical variation, and lifespan in Loligo forbesi.

Description: Cephalopod remains from the stomachs of a Risso's dolphin (Grampus griseus Cuvier, 1812, Cetacea) entangled in a fishing net off the Ligurian coast (central Mediterranean Sea) include squids Ancistroteuthis lichtensteini, Histioteuthis bonnellii, H. reversa and Todarodes sagittatus and the sepiolid Heteroteuthis dispar. All these cephalopods live in oceanic water including water over the steep continental slope where Risso's dolphin is frequently sighted. Histioteuthis reversa contributed 78% of the cephalopods by number, 81% of the wet weight and 73% of the dry weight and calorific value. The total calorific value of the cephalopods represented by lower beaks was 17,300 kj.

Description: The stomach contents of 235 specimens of the squid Sthenoteuthis oualaniensis (4·3–36·5 cm mantle length, ML) were examined. A detailed list of 60 species of prey, comprising young and adult squid, is given together with their frequency of occurrence and proportional contribution. The size and number of each food item was investigated. Three ontogenetic size-groups of S. oualaniensis were distinguished: I, fry and young (4–10 cm ML), micronektonic epipelagic plankton-eaters; II, transient critical size group (10–15 cm ML), converting from feeding on planktonic crustaceans and fish larvae to myctophid fishes; III, medium-sized (adult) nyctoepipelagic nektonic predators (15–36·5 cm ML), feeding primarily on myctophids and secondarily on squid. Myctophids (genera Symbolophorus, Myctophum and Hygophum) were the most abundant prey in the diet of adult S. oualaniensis from different parts of its distribution.

Description: The data presented provides new information on the distribution of Antarctic squids and on the summer diet of the emperor penguins. The diet of 58 adult emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) on the fast ice of the Drescher Inlet, Vestkapp Ice Shelf (72°52′S, 19°25′W) in the eastern Weddell Sea was investigated. Prey consisted principally of squid, fish, krill, amphipods and isopods. Squids were identified by the lower beaks and allometric equations were used to estimate the squid biomass represented. Beaks occurred in 93% of the stomach samples. Each sample contained a mean of 27 beaks (range 1–206). Ninety-two percent of the squids could be identified by the lower beaks and belonged to four families (Onychoteuthidae, Psychroteuthidae, Neoteuthidae and Gonatidae). The most abundant squid was Psychroteuthis glacialis which occurred in 52 samples with lower rostral lengths (LRL) ranging from 1.4–7.2 mm. Forty-five samples contained Alluroteuthis antarcticus (LRL range 1.8–5.8 mm), 17 Kondakovia longimana (LRL range 4–12.1 mm), and four Gonatus antarcticus (LRL range 4.1–6.1 mm). In terms of biomass K. longimana was the most important species taken by the penguins comprising 50% of total estimated squid wet mass (245348 g) in 1990 and 48% in 1992 (154873 g). However, if only fresh beaks were considered for estimations of squid consumption, i.e. beaks that have been accumulated for not longer than 5–6 days in the stomachs, squid diet was of minor importance. Then total squid wet mass accounted for only 4809 g in 1990 and 5445 g in 1992 which implies that one penguin took c.30 g squid d−1 with P. glacialis and A. antarcticus being the most important by mass. The prey composition suggests that emperor penguins take squid at the steep slope regions of the eastern Weddell Sea.

Description: The growth of the octopus Eledone cirrhosa has been studied in a population from the North Sea off Aberdeen. Data are presented for the growth of individuals isolated in aquarium conditions; the growth of size classes in thefieldpopulation; and preliminary information on the growth relationships of gonad, somatic, cardiac and brain components of the body. At 15 °C Eledone cirrhosa is capable of growing from 10 to 1000 g in 270 days. From octopuses which feed readily in captivity, weight specific growth rates of up to about 3–5 % day-1 for animals of 100 g body weight are recorded, falling to a maximum of about 1–5 % day-1 at body sizes above 500 g. Females stop growing when sexually mature, but in the sample captured they were consistently larger than males, a feature which may account for the 7:1 bias towards the incidence of females. On a wet-weight basis, the mean food incorporation into growth is 37 % of the food ingested, which is 49% of the gross weight of crabs killed. Field data for 1978/79 suggest that animals recruited to the population at the beginning of the year grew steadily until December, overwintered without growing, then grew rapidly for several months in the subsequent year before disappearing from the samples. The estimated average age of those animals and by implication, the life span, is 20 months.

Description: Samples of male Illex argentinus were taken from the catch of a Japanese squid jigging vessel on the Patagonian Shelf during March 1986 and an analysis was carried out on the morphometrics of the somatic and reproductive organ systems in relation to maturation. The data show that growth and maturation occurred simultaneously during most of the time that Illex argentinus males were on the feeding grounds over the southern Patagonian Shelf. In a squid of a ‘standard’ mantle length the whole body mass increased relative to mantle length during maturation and this could be attributed to the increase in mass of the reproductive and accessory reproductive organs. During maturation the mantle and digestive gland mass showed no significant change relative to mantle length. The mass of the head increased and the mass of the viscera decreased relative to mantle length. In male Illex argentinus, as in the female, the energy and nutrient resources for maturation are derived from the squid's food and during the course of maturation there is an increasing shift of emphasis from somatic growth to production of gonad and accessory reproductive organs. The proportional investment of body mass in reproductive and accessory reproductive organs predicted for a fully mature male Illex argentinus was less than half that of the female.

Description: During a study based on catches taken in the northern North Sea by selected Scottish fishing boats during 1985–1992, large numbers of the normally rare short-fin squid, Todaropsis eblanae (Cephalopoda: Ommastrephidae), were recorded in 1987 and 1990. Our findings, supported by data obtained from plankton/young fish surveys in 1988 and 1989, suggest that in northern waters Todaropsis eblanae generally mates and spawns during late summer and early autumn (June-November). Successful hatching events appear to occur during October-March, producing juvenile (stage I) squid in the early part of the year (January-June). Estimations of maximum male reproductive output and female fecundity were up to 130 spermatophores and ~28,000 eggs per individual, respectively.

Description: Statoliths of Loligo gahi were sampled in the fishery region 45–47°S on the Patagonian shelf during September 1989. Peculiarities of the growth zones in the ground statoliths of adults are described. Maximum age of large maturing and mature females (130–160 mm of mantle length, ML) was estimated to be 325–345 d, that of large mature males (250–290 mm ML) ranged from 360 to 396 d. The squid Loligo gahi d'Orbigny, 1835, occurs in temperate shelf and upper slope waters of the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of South America and is caught commercially by the international fleet in the southern part of the Patagonian shelf within the Falkland Islands Interim Conservation Zone (FICZ) (Roper et al., 1984; Csirke, 1987). Occasionally, dense shoals of L. gahi appear in the fishery region 45–47°S off the Exclusive Economic Zone of Argentina (EEZA) and have been caught in significant numbers by trawlers at depths of 120–150 m in September-October (Chesheva, 1990). Loligo gahi is a medium sized loliginid; in Falkland waters males attain 350 mm ML, females 210 mm ML (Hatfield, 1991), while in the fishery region 45–47°S maximum size is 260 mm and 160 mm, respectively (Chesheva, 1990). Patterson (1988) revealed two Falkland spawning stocks of L. gahi of unclear status, spring-spawners and autumn-spawners (austral seasons) and pointed out that the life span of squid of each stock lasted ~1 y. Recently Hatfield (1991) used statoliths to elucidate Patterson's (1988) estimations of age and growth of Falkland stocks of L. gahi and confirmed the 1-y duration of L. gahi's life span.

Description: The vertical distribution of the hydromedusa Aequorea forskalea was investigated using observations from the research submersible 'Jago' collected during 36 dives off the west coast of southern Africa during November 1997 and April 1999. The mean population depth of Aequorea? forskalea deepened with increasing sea surface temperature. We suggest that this behaviour enables individuals to avoid offshore advection, to minimize spatial overlap with other large medusae and to maintain their position over the middle of the shelf.

Description: Antarctic Bottom Water flows into the western North Atlantic across the equator, shifting from the western side to the eastern side of the trough between the American continents and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge as it continues north. This is puzzling because such large-scale motion is thought to be controlled by dynamics that disallows an eastern boundary current. Previous explanations for the transposition involve a (necessarily small-scale) density current that changes sides because of the change in sign of rotation across the equator, or a topographic effect that changes the sign of the effective mean vorticity gradient and thus requires an eastern boundary current. Here an alternative explanation for the overall structure of bottom flow is given. A source of mass to a thin bottom layer is assumed to upwell uniformly across its interface into a less dense layer at rest. A simple formula for the magnitude of the upwelling and thickness of the layer is derived that depends on the source strength to the bottom layer. For a strong enough source, the bottom layer thickness is zero along a grounding curve that separates the bottom water from the western boundary and confines it to the east. A band of recirculating interior flow occurs, supplied by an isolated northern and western boundary current. Similar structures appear to exist in the Antarctic Bottom Water of the western North Atlantic.

Description: Results of a three-dimensional primitive equation model are presented simulating turbulent mesoscale motions in the seasonal thermocline on an f plane. The model is based on a hybrid vertical coordinate scheme and conserves isopycnic potential vorticity. Mesoscale turbulence is modeled in terms of an unstable potential vorticity front. The model integration starts from a purely zonal, 60-km-wide geostrophically balanced jet, on which is superimposed a small initial perturbation. The most unstable mode exhibits a wavelength of 85 km and is driven by a mixed type of instability. Characteristic dynamical ingredients of the wave are enhanced cyclonic and anticyclonic relative vorticity in the troughs and the ridges, respectively, due to the curvature of the flow. Vertical motion of up to 10 m d−1 occurring downstream of the ridges (downwelling) and downstream of the troughs (upwelling) is driven by geostrophic advection of relative vorticity. The contrast of static stability across the front is changing during amplification of the instability: in troughs the stability is decreasing whereas in ridges it is increasing. The density field exhibits local anomalies of the isopycnals' depths (bumps) due to the ageostrophic cross-jet advection of potential vorticity streamers wound up in cyclones and anticyclones. Locally, the potential vorticity gradients are enhanced, creating a multiple front structure. The model results support observations and findings of earlier atmospheric and oceanic models. It is emphasized that mesoscale turbulent structures may have a profound influence on primary productivity, mixed-layer, and internal wave dynamics.

Description: The circulation of the northeastern Atlantic Ocean at intermediate depths is characterized by watermass transformation processes that involve Iceland–Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW) from the northeast, Labrador Sea Water (LSW) from the west, and Mediterranean Water from the south. Field observations were carried out with 89 eddy-resolving floats (RAFOS and MARVOR types). The data coverage achieved is remarkably high and enables a comprehensive study of the eastern basins between Iceland and the Azores. The trajectories show typical pathways of the water masses involved and the role that the complex bottom topography plays in defining them. The ISOW paths tend to lean against the slopes of the Reykjanes Ridge and Rockall Plateau. Westward escapes through multiple gaps in the ridge are possible, superimposed on a sustained southward flow in the eastern basin along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. LSW pathways leading to the eastern basins are subject to high variability in flow direction and eddy activity. In addition to a selection of characteristic trajectories, maps of the horizontal distributions of Lagrangian eddy kinetic energy and integral time scales are presented. These reveal distinct areas of intensified mixing in the Iceland Basin, as well as the sharp contrast between the subpolar and subtropical dynamics. A self-contained eddy detection scheme is applied to obtain statistics on individual eddy properties and their abundance. It is suggested that much of the intensified mixing can be related to cyclonic activity, particularly in the subpolar region.

Description: The Vasco—Cirene field experiment, in January—February 2007, targeted the Seychelles—Chagos thermocline ridge (SCTR) region, with the main purpose of investigating Madden—Julian Oscillation (MJO)-related SST events. The Validation of the Aeroclipper System under Convective Occurrences (Vasco) experiment (Duvel et al. 2009) and Cirene cruise were designed to provide complementary views of air—sea interaction in the SCTR region. While meteorological balloons were deployed from the Seychelles as a part of Vasco, the Research Vessel (R/V) Suroît was cruising the SCTR region as a part of Cirene. more: The Vasco—Cirene program explores how strong air—sea interactions promoted by the shallow thermocline and high sea surface temperature in the Seychelles—Chagos thermocline ridge results in marked variability at synoptic, intraseasonal, and interannual time scales. The Cirene oceanographic cruise collected oceanic, atmospheric, and air—sea flux observations in this region in January—February 2007. The contemporaneous Vasco field experiment complemented these measurements with balloon deployments from the Seychelles. Cirene also contributed to the development of the Indian Ocean observing system via deployment of a mooring and 12 Argo profilers. Unusual conditions prevailed in the Indian Ocean during January and February 2007, following the Indian Ocean dipole climate anomaly of late 2006. Cirene measurements show that the Seychelles—Chagos thermocline ridge had higher-than-usual heat content with subsurface anomalies up to 7°C. The ocean surface was warmer and fresher than average, and unusual eastward currents prevailed down to 800 m. These anomalous conditions had a major impact on tuna fishing in early 2007. Our dataset also sampled the genesis and maturation of Tropical Cyclone Dora, including high surface temperatures and a strong diurnal cycle before the cyclone, followed by a 1.5°C cooling over 10 days. Balloonborne instruments sampled the surface and boundary layer dynamics of Dora. We observed small-scale structures like dry-air layers in the atmosphere and diurnal warm layers in the near-surface ocean. The Cirene data will quantify the impact of these finescale features on the upper-ocean heat budget and atmospheric deep convection.

Description: In this paper we use the historical hydrographic data base for the South Atlantic Ocean to investigate (i) the hydrographic boundary between the subtropical gyre and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), the Sub-tropical Front (STF), and (ii) the southern current band of the gyre, which is called the South Atlantic Current (SAC). The STF begins in the west in the Brazil-Falkland (Malvinas) confluence zone, but at locations at and west of 45°W this front is often coincident with the Brazil Current front. East of 45°W the STF appears to be a distinct feature to at least the region south of Africa, whereupon it continues into the Indian Ocean. The associated current band of increased zonal speed is the SAC, which, except for one instance, is found at or north of the surface STF until Indian Ocean water from the Agulhas retroflection is reached. A reversal of baroclinicity in the STF is observed south of a highly saline Agulhas ring, causing the SAC to separate from the STF and turn north into the Benguela Current. Zonal flow south of the STF is generally weak and serves to separate the South Atlantic and circumpolar currents. In the Argentine Basin, the SAC has a typical volume transport of 30 Sv (1 Sv = 106m3s−1) in the upper 1000 m relative to a deep potential density surface (σ4 = 45.87 kg m−3), and can be as high as 37 Sv. It is thus comparable to, or stronger than, the Brazil Current. In the Cape Basin, the transport of the SAC is reduced to about 15 SY before it turns north to feed the Benguela Current. In late 1983 this flow was joined by about 8 Sv of water from the Agulhas Current.

Description: The upper bathyal sea-pen Kophobelemnon stelliferum extends to depths of about 1600 m in the Porcupine Seabight, to the south-west of Ireland, but is rare below about 1150 m. Photographic data suggest that the species attains numerical abundances of more than 2 m−2and a wet weight biomass of at least 4 g m−2. The highest densities, however, do not necessarily correspond to the highest biomass values since there is a clear depth-related change in population structure. The largest sea-pens are restricted to the deeper parts of the bathymetric range of the species. There is also a marked change in the growth form at a total colony length of about 250 mm, with larger colonies having relatively more polyps than smaller ones. The sexes are separate in Kophobelemnon stelliferum and the sex ratio of colonies is about 1:1. The maximum oocyte diameter is about 800 μm, but there is no evidence of seasonal reproduction by this pennatulid in the Porcupine Seabight.

Description: A correlation of the Campanian–Maastrichtian boundary is attempted using foraminiferal and nannoplankton data from two areas: the eastern North Atlantic and northwestern Germany. The Boreal benthic and Tethyan planktonic foraminiferal zonation schemes are applied to Site 548A, where both foraminiferal groups occur frequently. A direct comparison of both biozonations reveals that the base of the Maastrichtian, according to planktonic foraminifers, has to be placed in the Upper Campanian of the Boreal benthic foraminiferal biozonation, which concurs with the nannoplankton results. The Tethyan Middle and Upper Maastrichtian are probably equivalent to the Upper Maastrichtian in the Boreal sense. The bases of the Maastrichtian substages are thus diachronous between the Boreal and Tethyan realms. Palaeotemperatures (which were estimated using the oxygen isotopic composition of the Goban Spur chalks) indicate, in combination with palaeowind directions, that the faunal and floral distribution pattern recorded is the result of a stable, warm water outflow from the northwest European epicontinental seas through the Channel area to the Celtic Shelf sea and Goban Spur. This mechanism appears to have been a dominant separating factor of the Boreal and Tethyan bioprovinces on the western European Shelf.

Description: In this study a scenario is developed of two adjacent Mediterranean Water eddies (meddies) as they were observed merging and drifting through the Iberian Basin. Observations are based on four RAFOS floats (at 850–1050 dbar), two hydrographic surveys (centered roughly at 38°N, 24°W), and trajectories of surface drifters (drogued at 100 m). In April 1991, the meddy A was identified and labeled by surface drifters. During the revisit one month later two meddies were encountered, B1 and B2, in the vicinity of the former meddy A. The coalescence of B1 (subsequently identified as A, one month older) and B2 is inferred from a simple kinematic model describing the observed movement of the RAFOS floats for up to three months after the second CTD survey. The deduced vorticity front, radius ∼15 km, within B1 was of insufficient strength to keep the core waters of B1 isolated and prevent the absorption of B1 by B2. The resulting meddy (B1 + B2) showed a clear near-surface dynamical signal. Its deep root (1800 m) could explain the expulsion from the meddy of the remaining RAFOS float and surface drifter at the time of the meddy's collision with the Josephine Seamount. For the first time, a set of Lagrangian and hydrographic observations give direct evidence that neighboring meddies can merge as predicted by theoretical considerations.

Description: The total transport of Antarctic Bottom Water across the Rio Grande Rise, including the western boundary, the Vema Channel, and the Hunter Channel is estimated from hydrographic measurements across these pathways. The contribution of the Vema Channel is greatest at 3.9 × 106 m3 s−1, which is very close to earlier estimates. The western boundary current contribution is 2.0 × 106 m3 s−1 and that of the Hunter Channel 0.7 × 106 m3 s−1. The lower values outside the Vema Channel are offset by the important source of mass they form to the lower density classes of bottom water. About 40% of the flow is concentrated in the highest density class representing the source of Weddell Sea Deep Water to the Brazil Basin. The flow structure is characterized by horizontal and vertical recirculation.

Description: In this paper, the historical hydrographic database for the south Indian Ocean is used to investigate (i) the hydrographic boundary between the subtropical gyre and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), the subtropical front (STF), and especially (ii) the southern current band of the gyre. A current band of increased zonal speeds in the upper 1000 m is found just north of the STF in the west near South Africa and at the surface STF in the open Indian Ocean until the waters off the coast of Australia are reached. As neither any other investigation of this current nor a name for it are known, the flow has been called the South Indian Ocean Current (SIOC). This name is anologous to the same current band in the South Atlantic Ocean, the South Atlantic Current. The STF is located in the entire south Indian Ocean near 40-degrees-S. The associated current band of increased zonal speeds is the SIOC, which is found at or north of the STF. East of 100-degrees-E the SIOC separates from the STF and continues to the northeast. The zonal flow south of the STF is normally weak and serves to separate the South Indian Ocean and Circumpolar currents. Near Africa the SIOC has a typical volume transport of 60 Sv (1 Sv = 10(6) m3 s-1) in the upper 1000 m relative to deep potential density surfaces of sigma(4) = 45.87 kg m-3 (2800-3500 m) or sigma(2) = 36.94 kg m-3 (1500-2500 m). Near western Australia the SIOC is reduced to about 10 Sv as it turns to the northeast.

Description: The planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides sacculifer (Brady) was cultured under two different light intensities and in continuous darkness. High light intensity (HLI = 4oo-soo einsteins/m2/s) resulted in a longer lifespan, a greater number of chambers formed, and a larger final shell size compared with individuals cultured under low light intensity (LLI = 20-50 einsteins/m2/s) or in continuous darkness. Shell growth rates were unaffected by increasing light intensity, but gametogenesis was delayed. Continuous darkness induced a rapid onset of gametogenesis in organisms with shell lengths larger than 250 m. Feeding frequency had a greater effect on growth and reproduction than light intensity under conditions of LLI and HLI, but continuous darkness had an overriding effect on growth and reproduction owing to the rapid onset of gametogenesis which terminated the life of the mother cell. Our previous data indicated that the longevity of G. sacculifer was dependent on feeding frequency, and that G. sacculifer cultured under LLI had a lifespan of approximately 2-4 weeks. Present results suggest that the lifespan can vary from a minimum of 8 days for organisms fed daily in continuous darkness to a maximum of 54 days for organisms fed once every 7 days and maintained in HLI. It is concluded that individual G. sacculifer attain a shell size greater than 6oo ,urn only if they maintain their position in the euphotic zone. Prolonged existence below the euphotic zone would result in premature death or gametogenesis following stunted shell growth.

Description: An empirical model for the temperature of subsurface water entrained into the ocean mixed layer (Te) is presented and evaluated to improve sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) simulations in an intermediate ocean model (IOM) of the tropical Pacific. An inverse modeling approach is adopted to estimate Te from an SSTA equation using observed SST and simulated upper-ocean currents. A relationship between Te and sea surface height (SSH) anomalies is then obtained by utilizing a singular value decomposition (SVD) of their covariance. This empirical scheme is able to better parameterize Te anomalies than other local schemes and quite realistically depicts interannual variability of Te, including a nonlocal phase lag relation of Te variations relative to SSH anomalies over the central equatorial Pacific. An improved Te parameterization naturally leads to better depiction of the subsurface effect on SST variability by the mean upwelling of subsurface temperature anomalies. As a result, SSTA simulations are significantly improved in the equatorial Pacific; a comparison with other schemes indicates that systematic errors of the simulated SSTAs are significantly small—apparently due to the optimized empirical Teparameterization. Cross validation and comparisons with other model simulations are made to illustrate the robustness and effectiveness of the scheme. In particular it is demonstrated that the empirical Te model constructed from one historical period can be successfully used to improve SSTA simulations in another.

Description: The western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is closely related to Asian climate. Previous examination of changes in the WPSH found a westward extension since the late 1970s, which has contributed to the inter-decadal transition of East Asian climate. The reason for the westward extension is unknown, however. The present study suggests that this significant change of WPSH is partly due to the atmosphere's response to the observed Indian Ocean-western Pacific (IWP) warming. Coordinated by a European Union's Sixth Framework Programme, Understanding the Dynamics of the Coupled Climate System (DYNAMITE), five AGCMs were forced by identical idealized sea surface temperature patterns representative of the IWP warming and cooling. The results of these numerical experiments suggest that the negative heating in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and increased convective heating in the equatorial Indian Ocean/ Maritime Continent associated with IWP warming are in favor of the westward extension of WPSH. The SST changes in IWP influences the Walker circulation, with a subsequent reduction of convections in the tropical central and eastern Pacific, which then forces an ENSO/Gill-type response that modulates the WPSH. The monsoon diabatic heating mechanism proposed by Rodwell and Hoskins plays a secondary reinforcing role in the westward extension of WPSH. The low-level equatorial flank of WPSH is interpreted as a Kelvin response to monsoon condensational heating, while the intensified poleward flow along the western flank of WPSH is in accord with Sverdrup vorticity balance. The IWP warming has led to an expansion of the South Asian high in the upper troposphere, as seen in the reanalysis.

Description: Seasonal reconstructions of the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM) index are derived to extend the record before the reanalysis period, using station sea level pressure (SLP) data as predictors. Two reconstructions using different predictands are obtained: one [Jones and Widmann (JW)] based on the first principal component (PC) of extratropical SLP and the other (Fogt) on the index of Marshall. A regional-based SAM index (Visbeck) is also considered.These predictands agree well post-1979; correlations decline in all seasons except austral summer for the full series starting in 1958. Predictand agreement is strongest in spring and summer; hence agreement between the reconstructions is highest in these seasons. The less zonally symmetric SAM structure in winter and spring influences the strength of the SAM signal over land areas, hence the number of stations included in the reconstructions. Reconstructions from 1865 were, therefore, derived in summer and autumn and from 1905 in winter and spring. This paper examines the skill of each reconstruction by comparison with observations and reanalysis data. Some of the individual peaks in the reconstructions, such as the most recent in austral summer, represent a full hemispheric SAM pattern, while others are caused by regional SLP anomalies over the locations of the predictors. The JW and Fogt reconstructions are of similar quality in summer and autumn, while in winter and spring the Marshall index is better reconstructed by Fogt than the PC index is by JW. In spring and autumn the SAM shows considerable variability prior to recent decades.

Description: Climate models used to produce global warming scenarios exhibit widely diverging responses of the thermohaline circulation (THC). To investigate the mechanisms responsible for this variability, a regional Atlantic Ocean model driven with forcing diagnosed from two coupled greenhouse gas simulations has been employed. One of the coupled models (MPI) shows an almost constant THC, the other (GFDL) shows a declining THC in the twenty-first century. The THC evolution in the regional model corresponds rather closely to that of the respective coupled simulation, that is, it remains constant when driven with the forcing from the MPI model, and declines when driven with the GFDL forcing. These findings indicate that a detailed representation of ocean processes in the region covered by the Atlantic model may not be critical for the simulation of the overall THC changes in a global warming scenario, and specifically that the coupled model’s rather coarse representation of water mass formation processes in the subpolar North Atlantic is unlikely to be the primary cause for the large differences in the THC evolution. Sensitivity experiments have confirmed that a main parameter governing the THC response to global warming is the density of the intermediate waters in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Seas, which in turn influences the density of the North Atlantic Deep Water, whereas changes in the air–sea heat and freshwater fluxes over the subpolar North Atlantic are only of moderate importance, and mainly influence the interannual–decadal variability of THC. Finally, as a consequence of changing surface fluxes, the Labrador Sea convection ceases by about 2030 under both forcings (i.e., even in a situation where the overall THC is stable) indicating that the eventual breakdown of the convection is likely but need not coincide with substantial THC changes.

Description: Shortly after the advent of the first imaging passive microwave sensor on board a research satellite an anomalous climate feature was observed within the Weddell Sea. During the years 1974–1976, a 250 × 103 km2 area within the seasonal sea ice cover was virtually free of winter sea ice. This feature, the Weddell Polynya, was created as sea ice formation was inhibited by ocean convection that injected relatively warm deep water into the surface layer. Though smaller, less persistent polynyas associated with topographically induced upwelling at Maud Rise frequently form in the area, there has not been a reoccurrence of the Weddell Polynya since 1976. Archived observations of the surface layer salinity within the Weddell gyre suggest that the Weddell Polynya may have been induced by a prolonged period of negative Southern Annular Mode (SAM). During negative SAM the Weddell Sea experiences colder and drier atmospheric conditions, making for a saltier surface layer with reduced pycnocline stability. This condition enables Maud Rise upwelling to trigger sustained deep-reaching convection associated with the polynya. Since the late 1970s SAM has been close to neutral or in a positive state, resulting in warmer, wetter conditions over the Weddell Sea, forestalling repeat of the Weddell Polynya. A contributing factor to the Weddell Polynya initiation may have been a La Niña condition, which is associated with increased winter sea ice formation in the polynya area. If the surface layer is made sufficiently salty due to a prolonged negative SAM period, perhaps aided by La Niña, then Maud Rise upwelling meets with positive feedback, triggering convection, and a winter persistent Weddell Polynya.

Description: This study explores the influence of phytoplankton on the tropical Pacific heat budget. A hybrid coupled model for the tropical Pacific that is based on a primitive equation reduced-gravity multilayer ocean model, a dynamic ocean mixed layer, an atmospheric mixed layer, and a statistical atmosphere is used. The statistical atmosphere relates deviations of the sea surface temperature from its mean to wind stress anomalies and allows for the rectification of the annual cycle and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon through the positive Bjerknes feedback. Furthermore, a nine-component ecosystem model is coupled to the physical variables of the ocean. The simulated chlorophyll concentrations can feed back onto the ocean heat budget by their optical properties, which modify solar light absorption in the surface layers. It is shown that both the surface layer concentration as well as the vertical profile of chlorophyll have a significant effect on the simulated mean state, the tropical annual cycle, and ENSO. This study supports a previously suggested hypothesis (Timmermann and Jin) that predicts an influence of phytoplankton concentration of the tropical Pacific climate mean state and its variability. The bioclimate feedback diagnosed here works as follows: Maxima in the subsurface chlorophyll concentrations lead to an enhanced subsurface warming due to the absorption of photosynthetically available shortwave radiation. This warming triggers a deepening of the mixed layer in the eastern equatorial Pacific and eventually a reduction of the surface ocean currents (Murtugudde et al.). The weakened south-equatorial current generates an eastern Pacific surface warming, which is strongly enhanced by the Bjerknes feedback. Because of the deepening of the mixed layer, the strength of the simulated annual cycle is also diminished. This in turn leads to an increase in ENSO variability.

Description: The authors present the first quantitative comparison between new velocity datasets and high-resolution models in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre [1/10° Parallel Ocean Program model (POPNA10), Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM), ° Atlantic model (ATL6), and Family of Linked Atlantic Ocean Model Experiments (FLAME)]. At the surface, the model velocities agree generally well with World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) drifter data. Two noticeable exceptions are the weakness of the East Greenland coastal current in models and the presence in the surface layers of a strong southwestward East Reykjanes Ridge Current. At depths, the most prominent feature of the circulation is the boundary current following the continental slope. In this narrow flow, it is found that gridded float datasets cannot be used for a quantitative comparison with models. The models have very different patterns of deep convection, and it is suggested that this could be related to the differences in their barotropic transport at Cape Farewell. Models show a large drift in watermass properties with a salinization of the Labrador Sea Water. The authors believe that the main cause is related to horizontal transports of salt because models with different forcing and vertical mixing share the same salinization problem. A remarkable feature of the model solutions is the large westward transport over Reykjanes Ridge [10 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) or more]

Description: Recent observations show dramatic changes of the Arctic atmosphere–ice–ocean system. Here the authors demonstrate, through the analysis of a vast collection of previously unsynthesized observational data, that over the twentieth century the central Arctic Ocean became increasingly saltier with a rate of freshwater loss of 239 ± 270 km3 decade−1. In contrast, long-term (1920–2003) freshwater content (FWC) trends over the Siberian shelf show a general freshening tendency with a rate of 29 ± 50 km3 decade−1. These FWC trends are modulated by strong multidecadal variability with sustained and widespread patterns. Associated with this variability, the FWC record shows two periods in the 1920s–30s and in recent decades when the central Arctic Ocean was saltier, and two periods in the earlier century and in the 1940s–70s when it was fresher. The current analysis of potential causes for the recent central Arctic Ocean salinification suggests that the FWC anomalies generated on Arctic shelves (including anomalies resulting from river discharge inputs) and those caused by net atmospheric precipitation were too small to trigger long-term FWC variations in the central Arctic Ocean; to the contrary, they tend to moderate the observed long-term central-basin FWC changes. Variability of the intermediate Atlantic Water did not have apparent impact on changes of the upper–Arctic Ocean water masses. The authors’ estimates suggest that ice production and sustained draining of freshwater from the Arctic Ocean in response to winds are the key contributors to the salinification of the upper Arctic Ocean over recent decades. Strength of the export of Arctic ice and water controls the supply of Arctic freshwater to subpolar basins while the intensity of the Arctic Ocean FWC anomalies is of less importance. Observational data demonstrate striking coherent long-term variations of the key Arctic climate parameters and strong coupling of long-term changes in the Arctic–North Atlantic climate system. Finally, since the high-latitude freshwater plays a crucial role in establishing and regulating global thermohaline circulation, the long-term variations of the freshwater content discussed here should be considered when assessing climate change and variability.

Description: Outer membrane (OM), cytoplasmic membrane (CM) and intracytoplasmic membranes (ICM) from the halophilic phototrophic purple sulphur bacterium Ectothiorhodospira mobilis 9903 were purified and characterized. The three membrane fractions were significantly different in regard to protein profiles on SDS-PAGE, and to the composition of amino acids, fatty acids and lipids. The presence of lipoproteins, the occurrence of lyso-phosphatidyl-ethanolamine and an increased content of saturated and short-chain fatty acids are characteristic properties of the OM. CM and ICM fractions are different on the basis of buoyant density, of protein profiles and amino acid composition, and due to the presence of succinate dehydrogenase activity in CM. In addition, CM and ICM showed significant differences in pigment content and absorption spectra.

Description: Data from an array of six moorings deployed east of Abaco, Bahamas, along 26.5°N during March 2004–May 2005 are analyzed. These moorings formed the western boundary array of a transbasin observing system designed to continuously monitor the meridional overturning circulation and meridional heat flux in the subtropical North Atlantic, under the framework of the joint U.K.–U.S. Rapid Climate Change (RAPID)–Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) Program. Important features of the western boundary circulation include the southward-flowing deep western boundary current (DWBC) below 1000 m and the northward-flowing “Antilles” Current in the upper 1000 m. Transports in the western boundary layer are estimated from direct current meter observations and from dynamic height moorings that measure the spatially integrated geostrophic flow between moorings. The results of these methods are combined to estimate the time-varying transports in the upper and deep ocean over the width of the western boundary layer to a distance of 500 km offshore of the Bahamas escarpment. The net southward transport of the DWBC across this region, inclusive of northward deep recirculation, is −26.5 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1), which is divided nearly equally between upper (−13.9 Sv) and lower (−12.6 Sv) North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). In the top 1000 m, 6.0 Sv flows northward in a thermocline-intensified jet near the western boundary. These transports are found to agree well with historical current meter data in the region collected between 1986 and 1997. Variability in both shallow and deep components of the circulation is large, with transports above 1000 m varying between −15 and +25 Sv and deep transports varying between −60 and +3 Sv. Much of this transport variability, associated with barotropic fluctuations, occurs on relatively short time scales of several days to a few weeks. Upon removal of the barotropic fluctuations, slower baroclinic transport variations are revealed, including a temporary stoppage of the lower NADW transport in the DWBC during November 2004.

Description: A generalization of the transformed Eulerian and temporal residual means is presented. The new formulation uses rotational fluxes of buoyancy, and the full hierarchy of statistical density moments, to reduce the cross-isopycnal eddy flux to the physically relevant component associated with the averaged water mass properties. The resulting eddy-induced diapycnal diffusivity vanishes for adiabatic, statistically steady flow, and is related to either the growth or decay of mesoscale density variance and/or the covariance between small-scale forcing (mixing) and density fluctuations, such as that associated with the irreversible removal of density variance by dissipation. The relationship between the new formulation and previous approaches is described and is illustrated using results from an eddying channel model. The formalism is quite general and applies to all kinds of averaging and to any tracer (not just density).

Description: Chlorofluorocarbon (component CFC-11) and hydrographic data from 1997, 1999, and 2001 are presented to track the large-scale spreading of the Upper Labrador Sea Water (ULSW) in the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic Ocean. ULSW is CFC rich and comparatively low in salinity. It is located on top of the denser “classical” Labrador Sea Water (LSW), defined in the density range σΘ = 27.68–27.74 kg m−3. It follows spreading pathways similar to LSW and has entered the eastern North Atlantic. Despite data gaps, the CFC-11 inventories of ULSW in the subpolar North Atlantic (40°–65°N) could be estimated within 11%. The inventory increased from 6.0 ± 0.6 million moles in 1997 to 8.1 ± 0.6 million moles in 1999 and to 9.5 ± 0.6 million moles in 2001. CFC-11 inventory estimates were used to determine ULSW formation rates for different periods. For 1970–97, the mean formation rate resulted in 3.2–3.3 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). To obtain this estimate, 5.0 million moles of CFC-11 located in 1997 in the ULSW in the subtropical/tropical Atlantic were added to the inventory of the subpolar North Atlantic. An estimate of the mean combined ULSW/LSW formation rate for the same period gave 7.6–8.9 Sv. For the years 1998–99, the ULSW formation rate solely based on the subpolar North Atlantic CFC-11 inventories yielded 6.9–9.2 Sv. At this time, the lack of classical LSW formation was almost compensated for by the strongly pronounced ULSW formation. Indications are presented that the convection area needed in 1998–99 to form this amount of ULSW exceeded the available area in the Labrador Sea. The Irminger Sea might be considered as an additional region favoring ULSW formation. In 2000–01, ULSW formation weakened to 3.3–4.7 Sv. Time series of layer thickness based on historical data indicate that there exists considerable variability of ULSW and classical LSW formation on decadal scales.

Description: Extratropical cyclones and how they may change in a warmer climate have been investigated in detail with a high-resolution version of the ECHAM5 global climate model. A spectral resolution of T213 (63 km) is used for two 32-yr periods at the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries and integrated for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. Extremes of pressure, vorticity, wind, and precipitation associated with the cyclones are investigated and compared with a lower-resolution simulation.Comparison with observations of extreme wind speeds indicates that the model reproduces realistic values. This study also investigates the ability of the model to simulate extratropical cyclones by computing composites of intense storms and contrasting them with the same composites from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). Composites of the time evolution of intense cyclones are reproduced with great fidelity; in particular the evolution of central surface pressure is almost exactly replicated, but vorticity, maximum wind speed, and precipitation are higher in the model. Spatial composites also show that the distributions of pressure, winds, and precipitation at different stages of the cyclone life cycle compare well with those from ERA-40, as does the vertical structure. For the twenty-first century, changes in the distribution of storms are very similar to those of previous study. There is a small reduction in the number of cyclones but no significant changes in the extremes of wind and vorticity in both hemispheres. There are larger regional changes in agreement with previous studies. The largest changes are in the total precipitation, where a significant increase is seen. Cumulative precipitation along the tracks of the cyclones increases by some 11% per track, or about twice the increase in global precipitation, while the extreme precipitation is close to the globally averaged increase in column water vapor (some 27%). Regionally, changes in extreme precipitation are even higher because of changes in the storm tracks.

Description: Global mean and eddy fields from a four-year experiment with a 1/6° × 1/5° horizontal resolution implementation of the CME North Atlantic model are presented. The time-averaged wind-driven and thermohaline circulation in the model is compared to the results of a 1/3° × 2/5° model run in very similar configuration. In general, the higher resolution results are found to confirm that the resolution of previous CME experiments is sufficient to describe many features of the large-scale circulation and water mass distribution quite well. While the increased resolution does not lead to large changes in the mean flow patterns, the variability in the model is enhanced significantly. On the other hand, however, not all aspects of the circulation have improved with resolution. The Azores Current Frontal Zone with its variability in the eastern basin is still represented very poorly. Particular attention is also directed toward the unrealistic stationary anticyclones north of Cape Hatteras and in the Gulf of Mexico.

Description: Using the same approach as in Part I, here it is shown how sampling problems in voluntary observing ship (VOS) data affect conclusions about interannual variations and secular changes of surface heat fluxes. The largest uncertainties in linear trend estimates are found in relatively poorly sampled regions like the high-latitude North Atlantic and North Pacific as well as the Southern Ocean, where trends can locally show opposite signs when computed from the regularly sampled and undersampled data. Spatial patterns of shorter-period interannual variability, quantified through the EOF analysis, also show remarkable differences between the regularly sampled and undersampled flux datasets in the Labrador Sea and northwest Pacific. In particular, it is shown that in the Labrador Sea region, in contrast to regularly sampled NCEP–NCAR reanalysis fluxes, VOS-like sampled NCEP–NCAR reanalysis fluxes neither show significant interannual variability nor significant trends. These regions, although quite localized covering small parts of the globe, play a crucial role for the coupled atmosphere–ocean system. In the Labrador Sea, for instance, interannual and decadal-scale changes of the surface net heat fluxes are known to affect oceanic convection and, thus, the meridional overturning circulation of the Atlantic Ocean. From a discussion of current atmospheric data assimilation systems it is argued that in poorly sampled regions reanalysis products are superior to VOS-based products for studying interannual and interdecadal variations of atmosphere–ocean interaction. In well-sampled regions, on the other hand, conclusions about surface heat flux variations are relatively insensitive to the choice of the flux products used (VOS versus reanalysis data). The results are confirmed for two different datasets, that is, ECMWF 40-yr Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data and seasonal integrations with a recent version of the ECMWF model in which no actual data were assimilated.

Description: Perfect model ensemble experiments are performed with five coupled atmosphere-ocean models to investigate the potential for initial-value climate forecasts on interannual to decadal time scales. Experiments are started from similar initial states and common diagnostics of predictability are used. We find that; variations in the ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation are potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, a more consistent picture of the surface temperature impact of decadal variations in the MOC is now apparent, and variations of surface air temperatures in the N. Atlantic are also potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, albeit with potential skill levels which are less than those seen for MOC variations. This inter-comparison represents a step forward in assessing the robustness of model estimates of potential skill and is a pre-requisite for the development of any operational forecasting system

Description: The dependence of the air–sea interactions over the North Atlantic on the ocean dynamics is explored by analyzing multicentury integrations with two different coupled ocean–atmosphere models. One is a coupled general circulation model (CGCM), in which both the atmospheric and the oceanic components are represented by general circulation models (GCMs). The second coupled model employs the same atmospheric GCM, but the oceanic GCM is replaced by a fixed-depth mixed layer model, so that variations of the ocean dynamics are excluded. The coupled model including active ocean dynamics simulates strong multidecadal variability in the sea surface temperature (SST) of the North Atlantic, with a monopolar spatial structure. In contrast, the coupled model that employs an oceanic mixed layer model and thus does not carry active ocean dynamics simulates a tripolar SST anomaly pattern at decadal time scales. The tripolar SST anomaly pattern is characterized by strong horizontal gradients and is by definition the result of the action of surface heat flux anomalies on the oceanic mixed layer. The differences in the spatial structures of the dominant decadal SST anomaly patterns yield rather different atmospheric responses. While the response to the monopolar SST anomaly pattern is shallow and thermal, the response to the tripolar SST anomaly pattern involves changes in the transient eddy statistics. The latter can be explained by the strong horizontal SST gradients that affect the surface baroclinicity, which in turn affects the growth rate of the transient eddies. The differences in the atmospheric response characteristics yield completely different response patterns. In the coupled run with active ocean dynamics, the sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies exhibit a rather homogeneous pattern that resembles somewhat the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP), while a dipolar (North Atlantic Oscillation) NAO-like SLP anomaly pattern is simulated in the coupled run without active ocean dynamics.

Description: A tangent linear adjoint for a low-resolution dynamical model of the atmosphere is used to derive the optimal forcing perturbations for all state variables such that after a specified lead time the model response has a given projection, in terms of an energy norm, on the pattern associated with the 51-yr trend in the Northern Hemisphere winter tropospheric circulation, 1948/49–1998/99. A feature of the derived forcing sensitivity is a Rossby wave–like feature that emanates from the western tropical Pacific and is associated with the deepening of the Aleutian low, whereas an annular pattern in the forcing sensitivity in the uppermost model level is shown to be associated with the pattern of the trend over the Euro-Atlantic/Asian sectors, including the upward trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index. The authors argue that the Rossby wave–type feature is consistent with studies that have argued a role for the upward trend in tropical sea surface temperature during the 51-yr period. On the other hand, the authors interpret the annular pattern in the forcing sensitivity as being consistent with studies that have argued that the trend over the Euro-Atlantic sector was associated with influences from the stratosphere. In particular, a nonlinear model driven by the optimal forcing perturbation applied only to the top model level is successful at reproducing the trend pattern with the correct amplitude in the Euro-Atlantic sector, but implies a trend over the North Pacific toward a weaker Aleutian low, contrary to what was observed but similar to the spatial pattern associated with the northern annular mode. These results show that the adjoint approach can shed light on previous apparently different interpretations of the trend. The study also presents a successful application of a tangent linear adjoint model to a climate problem.

Description: On 19 October 2000, Hurricane Michael merged with an approaching baroclinic trough over the western North Atlantic Ocean south of Nova Scotia. As the hurricane moved over cooler sea surface temperatures (SSTs; less than 25°C), it intensified to category-2 intensity on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale [maximum sustained wind speeds of 44 m s−1 (85 kt)] while tapping energy from the baroclinic environment. The large “hybrid” storm made landfall on the south coast of Newfoundland with maximum sustained winds of 39 m s−1 (75 kt) causing moderate damage to coastal communities east of landfall. Hurricane Michael presented significant challenges to weather forecasters. The fundamental issue was determining which of two cyclones (a newly formed baroclinic low south of Nova Scotia or the hurricane) would become the dominant circulation center during the early stages of the extratropical transition (ET) process. Second, it was difficult to predict the intensity of the storm at landfall owing to competing factors: 1) decreasing SSTs conducive to weakening and 2) the approaching negatively tilted upper-level trough, favoring intensification. Numerical hindcast simulations using the limited-area Mesoscale Compressible Community model with synthetic vortex insertion (cyclone bogus) prior to the ET of Hurricane Michael led to a more realistic evolution of wind and pressure compared to running the model without vortex insertion. Specifically, the mesoscale model correctly simulates the hurricane as the dominant circulation center early in the transition process, versus the baroclinic low to its north, which was the favored development in the runs not employing vortex insertion. A suite of experiments is conducted to establish the sensitivity of the ET to various initial conditions, lateral driving fields, domain sizes, and model parameters. The resulting storm tracks and intensities fall within the range of the operational guidance, lending support to the possibility of improving numerical forecasts using synthetic vortex insertion prior to ET in such a model.

Description: To avoid an explicit simulation of the overflows across the Greenland-Scotland ridge, many models of the large-scale ocean circulation seek to include the net effect of the inflowing dense water masses by restoring temperature and salinity near the ridge to observed conditions. In this paper the authors examine the effect of different datasets for the northern restoring condition in two versions, eddy resolving and non-eddy resolving, of the model of the North and equatorial Atlantic that has been developed in recent years as a Community Modeling Effort for WOCE. It is shown that the use of smoothed climatological fields of temperature and salinity south of the Denmark Strait leads to strong deficiencies in the simulation of the deep flow field in the basin. A switch to actual hydrographic data from the Denmark Strait ignites a rapid dynamic response throughout the North Atlantic, affecting the transport and vertical structure of the deep western boundary current and, by virtue of the JEBAR efffect, the transport of the horizontal gyres. Meridional overturning and northward heat transport too weak in the cases with climatological boundary conditions, increase to more realistic levels in the subtropical North Atlantic. The initial response to switches in the high-latitude thermohaline forcing is mediated by fast waves along the westurn boundary, leading to changes in the deep western boundary current in low latitudes after about two years in the non-eddy-resolving cast. The initial timescale depends on the horizontal grid spacing of the model; in the high-resolution case, the first signal reaches the equator in a few months. The adjustment to a new, dynamic quasi equilibrium involves Kelvin waves along the equator and Rossby wave in the interior and is attained in less than two decades throughout the North Atlantic. It is suggested that these fast dynamic adjustment processes could play an important role in possible fluctuations of the thermohaline circulation, or transitions between different equilibrium states of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system, and may have determined the timescale of the observed climatic transitions before and during the last deglaciation.

Description: Recent observations show dramatic changes of the Arctic atmosphere–ice–ocean system. Here the authors demonstrate, through the analysis of a vast collection of previously unsynthesized observational data, that over the twentieth century the central Arctic Ocean became increasingly saltier with a rate of freshwater loss of 239 ± 270 km3 decade−1. In contrast, long-term (1920–2003) freshwater content (FWC) trends over the Siberian shelf show a general freshening tendency with a rate of 29 ± 50 km3 decade−1. These FWC trends are modulated by strong multidecadal variability with sustained and widespread patterns. Associated with this variability, the FWC record shows two periods in the 1920s–30s and in recent decades when the central Arctic Ocean was saltier, and two periods in the earlier century and in the 1940s–70s when it was fresher. The current analysis of potential causes for the recent central Arctic Ocean salinification suggests that the FWC anomalies generated on Arctic shelves (including anomalies resulting from river discharge inputs) and those caused by net atmospheric precipitation were too small to trigger long-term FWC variations in the central Arctic Ocean; to the contrary, they tend to moderate the observed long-term central-basin FWC changes. Variability of the intermediate Atlantic Water did not have apparent impact on changes of the upper–Arctic Ocean water masses. The authors’ estimates suggest that ice production and sustained draining of freshwater from the Arctic Ocean in response to winds are the key contributors to the salinification of the upper Arctic Ocean over recent decades. Strength of the export of Arctic ice and water controls the supply of Arctic freshwater to subpolar basins while the intensity of the Arctic Ocean FWC anomalies is of less importance. Observational data demonstrate striking coherent long-term variations of the key Arctic climate parameters and strong coupling of long-term changes in the Arctic–North Atlantic climate system. Finally, since the high-latitude freshwater plays a crucial role in establishing and regulating global thermohaline circulation, the long-term variations of the freshwater content discussed here should be considered when assessing climate change and variability.

Description: A high-resolution model of the wind-driven and thermohaline circulation in the North and equatorial Atlantic Ocean is used to study the structure and variability of the boundary current system at 26°N, including the Florida Current, the Antilles Current, and the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC). The model was developed by Bryan and Holland as a Community Modeling Effort of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment. Subsequent experiments have been performed at IfM Kiel, with different friction coefficients, and different climatologies of monthly mean wind stress: Hellerman–Rosenstein (HR) and Isemer–Hasse (IH). The southward volume transports in the upper 1000 m of the interior Atlantic, at 26°N, are 25.0 Sv (Sv ≡ 106m3s−1) for HR, and 34.9 Sv for IH forcing, in good agreement with the transport from the integrated Sverdrup balance at this latitude (23.9 Sv for HR, 35.6 Sv for IH). The return flow of this wind-driven transport, plus the southward transport of the DWBC (6–8 Sv), is partitioned between the Florida Current and Antilles Current. With HR forcing, the transport through the Straits of Florida is 23.2 Sv; this increases to 29.1 Sv when the wind stresses of IH are used. The annual variation of the simulated Florida Current is very similar to previous, coarse-resolution models when using the same wind-stress climatology (HR); the annual range (3.4 Sv) obtained with HR forcing is strongly enhanced (6.3 Sv) with IH forcing. The meridional heat transport at 26°N, zonally integrated across the basin, is in phase with the Florida Current; its annual range increases from 0.44 PW (HR) to 0.80 PW (IH). The annual signal east of the Bahamas is masked by strong transport fluctuations on a time scale of O(100 days), caused by an instability of the Antilles Current. By averaging over several model years, an annual cycle is extracted, which is in phase with the wind stress curl over the western part of the basin.

Description: The interaction of clouds with solar and terrestrial radiation is one of the most important topics of climate research. In recent years it has been recognized that only a full three-dimensional (3D) treatment of this interaction can provide answers to many climate and remote sensing problems, leading to the worldwide development of numerous 3D radiative transfer (RT) codes. The international Intercomparison of 3D Radiation Codes (I3RC), described in this paper, sprung from the natural need to compare the performance of these 3D RT codes used in a variety of current scientific work in the atmospheric sciences. I3RC supports intercomparison and development of both exact and approximate 3D methods in its effort to 1) understand and document the errors/limits of 3D algorithms and their sources; 2) provide “baseline” cases for future code development for 3D radiation; 3) promote sharing and production of 3D radiative tools; 4) derive guidelines for 3D radiative tool selection; and 5) improve atmospheric science education in 3D RT. Results from the two completed phases of I3RC have been presented in two workshops and are expected to guide improvements in both remote sensing and radiative energy budget calculations in cloudy atmospheres.

Description: This review paper discusses the physical basis and the potential for decadal climate predictability over the Atlantic and its adjacent land areas. Many observational and modeling studies describe pronounced decadal and multidecadal variability in the Atlantic Ocean. However, it still needs to be quantified to which extent the variations in the ocean drive variations in the atmosphere and over land. In particular, although a clear impact of the Tropics on the midlatitudes has been demonstrated, it is unclear if and how the extratropical atmosphere responds to midlatitudinal sea surface temperature anomalies. Although the mechanisms behind the decadal to multidecadal variability in the Atlantic sector are still controversial, there is some consensus that some of the longer-term multidecadal variability is driven by variations in the thermohaline circulation. The variations in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation appear to be predictable one to two decades ahead, as shown by a number of perfect model predictability experiments. The next few decades will be dominated by these multidecadal variations, although the effects of anthropogenic climate change are likely to introduce trends. Some impact of the variations of the thermohaline circulation on the atmosphere has been demonstrated in some studies so that useful decadal predictions with economic benefit may be possible.

Description: Changes of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) excite wave patterns that readjust the thermocline globally. This paper examines the impact of a freshwater-induced THC shutdown on the depth of the Pacific thermocline and its subsequent modification of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability using an intermediate-complexity global coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model and an intermediate ENSO model, respectively. It is shown by performing a numerical eigenanalysis and transient simulations that a THC shutdown in the North Atlantic goes along with reduced ENSO variability because of a deepening of the zonal mean tropical Pacific thermocline. A transient simulation also exhibits abrupt changes of ENSO behavior, depending on the rate of THC change. The global oceanic wave adjustment mechanism is shown to play a key role also on multidecadal time scales. Simulated multidecadal global sea surface temperature (SST) patterns show a large degree of similarity with previous climate reconstructions, suggesting that the observed pan-oceanic variability on these time scales is brought about by oceanic waves and by atmospheric teleconnections.

Description: A new, non-flux-corrected, global climate model is introduced, the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), which will be used to study internal climate variability from interannual to millennial time scales and climate predictability of the first and second kind. The version described here is a coarse-resolution version that will be employed in extended-range integrations of several millennia. KCM's performance in the tropical Pacific with respect to mean state, annual cycle, and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is described. Additionally, the tropical Pacific response to global warming is studied.Overall, climate drift in a multicentury control integration is small. However, KCM exhibits an equatorial cold bias at the surface of the order 1 degrees C, while strong warm biases of several degrees are simulated in the eastern tropical Pacific on both sides off the equator, with maxima near the coasts. The annual and semiannual cycles are realistically simulated in the eastern and western equatorial Pacific, respectively. ENSO performance compares favorably to observations with respect to both amplitude and period. An ensemble of eight greenhouse warming simulations was performed, in which the CO2 concentration was increased by 1% yr(-1) until doubling was reached, and stabilized thereafter. Warming of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) is, to first order, zonally symmetric and leads to a sharpening of the thermocline. ENSO variability increases because of global warming: during the 30-yr period after CO2 doubling, the ensemble mean standard deviation of Nino-3 SST anomalies is increased by 26% relative to the control, and power in the ENSO band is almost doubled. The increased variability is due to both a strengthened (22%) thermocline feedback and an enhanced (52%) atmospheric sensitivity to SST; both are associated with changes in the basic state. Although variability increases in the mean, there is a large spread among ensemble members and hence a finite probability that in the "model world" no change in ENSO would be observed.

Description: In this paper, a version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational model is used to (i) diagnose the diabatic heating associated with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and (ii) assess the role of this heating in the dynamics of the NAO in the model. Over the North Atlantic sector, the NAO-related diabatic heating is dominated above the planetary boundary layer by the latent heat release associated with precipitation, and within the boundary layer by vertical diffusion associated with sensible heat flux from the ocean. An association between La Niña–El Niño–type conditions in the tropical Pacific and the positive/negative NAO is found in model runs using initial conditions and sea surface temperature (SST) lower boundary conditions from the period 1982–2001, but not in a companion set of model runs for the period 1962–81. Model experiments are then described in which the NAO-related diabatic heating diagnosed from the 1982–2001 control run is applied as a constant forcing in the model temperature equation using both 1982–2001 and 1962–81 model setups. To assess the local feedback from the diabatic heating, the specified forcing is first restricted to the North Atlantic sector alone. In this case, the model response (in an ensemble mean sense) is suggestive of a weak negative feedback, but exhibits more baroclinic structure and has its centers of action shifted compared to those of the NAO. On the other hand, forcing with only the tropical Pacific part of the diabatic heating leads to a robust model response in both the 1982–2001 and 1962–81 model setups. The model response projects on to the NAO with the same sign as that used to diagnose the forcing, arguing that the link between the tropical Pacific and the NAO is real in the 1982–2001 control run. The missing link in the corresponding run for 1962–81 is a result of a change in the tropical forcing between the two periods, and not the extratropical flow regime.

Description: Ocean island volcanoes frequently develop local rift zones associated with flank movement and flank collapses. The ocean island El Hierro grew by coalescence and collapse of three volcanic edifices, which are an elongated topographic ridge (the Southern Ridge) and two semi-circular volcanic cones (Ti˜nor volcano, El Golfo volcano). During edifice growth and volcano coalescence, eruption fissures nucleated into rift zones that developed a complex triangle pattern. In scaled analogue experimentswe could successfully reproduce the geometry of rift zones and unstable flanks as observed on El Hierro. The experimental results suggest that the rift configuration on El Hierro is the result of gravitational volcano spreading over deformable basal substrata, rather than of deep-seated magma updoming as thought previously. This paper elucidates the importance of the basal substratum and gravitational spreading, and the relationship to rifting and flank instability on El Hierro Island, and may help in understanding similar volcano architectures elsewhere.

Description: This paper documents the arrival of Diplosoma listerianum into a habitat with no previously known history of the species. Once established, D. listerianum exploited rapid growth rates relative to the other fouling species present, to quickly become the dominant species in a local fouling assemblage. Most resident macrofoulers were out-competed for space and overgrown, although some resistance to overgrowth was demonstrated by the bryozoan Umbonula littoralis and the tunicate Ascidiella aspersa. In this instance, traits traditionally considered to be relevant for community resistance towards invasion, such as diversity, richness, dominant species identity and open space were not important in controlling the spread of D. listerianum

Description: The depth of winter convection in the central Labrador Sea is strongly influenced by the prevailing stratification in late summer. For this late summer stratification salinity is as important as temperature, and in the upper water layers salinity even dominates. To analyze the source of the spring and summer freshening in the central region, seasonal freshwater cycles have been constructed for the interior Labrador Sea, the West Greenland Current, and the Labrador Current. It is shown that none of the local freshwater sources is responsible for the spring–summer freshening in the interior, which appears to occur in two separate events in April to May and July to September. Comparing the timing and volume estimates of the seasonal freshwater cycles of the boundary currents with the central Labrador Sea helps in understanding the origin of the interior freshwater signals. The first smaller pulse cannot be attributed clearly to either of the boundary currents. The second one is about three times stronger and supplies 60% of the seasonal summer freshwater. Transport estimates and calculated mixing properties provide evidence that its source is the West Greenland Current. The finding implies a connection also on interannual time scales between Labrador Sea surface salinity and freshwater sources in the West Greenland Current and farther upstream in the East Greenland Current. The freshwater input from the West Greenland Current thus also is the likely pathway for the known modulation of Labrador Sea Water mass formation by freshwater export from the Arctic (via the East Greenland Current), which implies some predictability on longer time scales.

Description: Multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) of surface zonal wind, sea surface temperature (SST), 20° isotherm depth, and surface zonal current observations (between 1990 and 2004) identifies three coupled ocean–atmosphere modes of variability in the tropical Pacific: the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the annual cycle, and a mode with a 14–18-month period, which is referred to as sub-ENSO in this study. The sub-ENSO mode accounts for the near 18-month (near annual) variability prior to (following) the 1997/98 El Niño event. It was strongest during this El Niño event, with SST anomalies exceeding 1°C. Sub-ENSO peak SST anomalies are ENSO-like in structure and are associated with eastward propagating heat content variations. However, the SST anomalies are preceded by and in near quadrature with relatively strong remotely forced westward propagating zonal current variations, suggesting the sub-ENSO mode arises from the zonal-advective feedback. The sub-ENSO mode is found to exist also in an intermediate complexity model (ICM) of the tropical Pacific. A heat budget analysis of the model’s sub-ENSO mode shows it indeed arises from the zonal-advective feedback. In the model, both ENSO and sub-ENSO modes coexist, but there is a weak nonlinear interaction between them. Experiments also show that the observed changes in sub-ENSO’s characteristics may be explained by changes in the relative importance of zonal and vertical advection SST tendencies.

Description: The interannual heat content variability in the tropical south Indian Ocean (SIO) and its relationship with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is studied. The baroclinic ocean response to stochastic wind stress predicted by a simple analytical model is compared with two integrations of the ECHO-G coupled general circulation model. In one integration, ocean–atmosphere interactions are suppressed in the tropical Pacific Ocean, so that this integration does not simulate ENSO. In the other integration, interactions are allowed everywhere and ENSO is simulated. The results show that basinwide variability in the SIO heat content can be produced by two mechanisms: 1) oscillatory forcing by ENSO-related wind stress and 2) temporally stochastic and spatially coherent wind stress forcing. Previous studies have shown that transmission of energy from the tropical Pacific to the southern Indian Ocean occurs through coastal Kelvin waves along the western coast of Australia. The results in this paper confirm the occurrence of such transmission. In the ECHO-G simulations, this transmission occurs both at the annual time scale and at interannual time scales. Generation of offshore Rossby waves by these coastal Kelvin waves at interannual time scales—and, in particular, at the ENSO time scale—was found.

Description: The temporal evolution of the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the subtropical North Atlantic is affected by both remotely forced, basin-scale meridionally coherent, climate-relevant transport anomalies, such as changes in high-latitude deep water formation rates, and locally forced transport anomalies, such as eddies or Rossby waves, possibly associated with small meridional coherence scales, which can be considered as noise. The focus of this paper is on the extent to which local eddies and Rossby waves when impinging on the western boundary of the Atlantic affect the temporal variability of the AMOC at 26.5 degrees N. Continuous estimates of the AMOC at this latitude have been made since April 2004 by combining the Florida Current, Ekman, and midocean transports with the latter obtained from continuous density measurements between the coasts of the Bahamas and Morocco, representing, respectively, the western and eastern boundaries of the Atlantic at this latitude.Within 100 km of the western boundary there is a threefold decrease in sea surface height variability toward the boundary, observed in both dynamic heights from in situ density measurements and altimetric heights. As a consequence, the basinwide zonally integrated upper midocean transport shallower than 1000 m-as observed continuously between April 2004 and October 2006-varies by only 3.0 Sv (1 Sv = 10(6) m(3) s(-1)) RMS. Instead, upper midocean transports integrated from western boundary stations 16, 40, and 500 km offshore to the eastern boundary vary by 3.6, 6.0, and 10.7 Sv RMS, respectively. The reduction in eddy energy toward the western boundary is reproduced in a nonlinear reduced-gravity model suggesting that boundary-trapped waves may account for the observed decline in variability in the coastal zone because they provide a mechanism for the fast equatorward export of transport anomalies associated with eddies impinging on the western boundary. An analytical model of linear Rossby waves suggests a simple scaling for the reduction in thermocline thickness variability toward the boundary. Physically, the reduction in amplitude is understood as along-boundary pressure gradients accelerating the fluid and rapidly propagating pressure anomalies along the boundary. The results suggest that the local eddy field does not dominate upper midocean transport or AMOC variability at 26.5 degrees N on interannual to decadal time scales.

Description: A coupled global atmosphere–ocean model of intermediate complexity is used to study the influence of glacial boundary conditions on the atmospheric circulation during the Last Glacial Maximum in a systematical manner. A web of atmospheric interactions is disentangled, which involves changes in the meridional temperature gradient and an associated modulation of the atmospheric baroclinicity. This in turn drives anomalous transient eddy momentum fluxes that feed back onto the zonal mean circulation. Moreover, the modified transient activity (weakened in the North Pacific and strengthened in the North Atlantic) leads to a meridional reorganization of the atmospheric heat transport, thereby feeding back onto the meridional temperature structure. Furthermore, positive barotropic conversion and baroclinic production rates over the Laurentide ice sheets and the far eastern North Pacific have the tendency to decelerate the westerlies, thereby feeding back to the stationary wave changes triggered by orographic forcing.

Description: Two state-of-the-art profiling floats were equipped with novel optode-based oceanographic oxygen sensors. Both floats were simultaneously deployed in the central Labrador Sea gyre on 7 September 2003. They drift at a depth of 800 db and perform weekly profiles of temperature, salinity, and oxygen in the upper 2000 m of the water column. The initial results from the first 6 months of operation are presented. Data are compared with a small hydrographic oxygen survey of the deployment site. They are further examined for measurement quality, including precision, accuracy, and drift aspects. The first 28 profiles obtained are of high quality and show no detectable sensor drift. A method of long-term drift control is described and a few suggestions for the operation protocol are provided.

Description: A coordinated set of global coupled climate model [atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM)] experiments for twentieth- and twenty-first-century climate, as well as several climate change commitment and other experiments, was run by 16 modeling groups from 11 countries with 23 models for assessment in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Since the assessment was completed, output from another model has been added to the dataset, so the participation is now 17 groups from 12 countries with 24 models. This effort, as well as the subsequent analysis phase, was organized by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Working Group on Coupled Models (WGCM) Climate Simulation Panel, and constitutes the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). The dataset is called the WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset, and represents the largest and most comprehensive international global coupled climate model experiment and multimodel analysis effort ever attempted. As of March 2007, the Program for Climate Model Diagnostics and Intercomparison (PCMDI) has collected, archived, and served roughly 32 TB of model data. With oversight from the panel, the multimodel data were made openly available from PCMDI for analysis and academic applications. Over 171 TB of data had been downloaded among the more than 1000 registered users to date. Over 200 journal articles, based in part on the dataset, have been published so far. Though initially aimed at the IPCC AR4, this unique and valuable resource will continue to be maintained for at least the next several years. Never before has such an extensive set of climate model simulations been made available to the international climate science community for study. The ready access to the multimodel dataset opens up these types of model analyses to researchers, including students, who previously could not obtain state-of-the-art climate model output, and thus represents a new era in climate change research. As a direct consequence, these ongoing studies are increasing the body of knowledge regarding our understanding of how the climate system currently works, and how it may change in the future.

Description: The dominant pattern of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic sector is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Since the 1970s the NAO has been well characterized by a trend toward its positive phase. Recent atmospheric general circulation model studies have linked this trend to a progressive warming of the Indian Ocean. Unfortunately, a clear mechanism responsible for the change of the NAO could not be given. This study provides further details of the NAO response to Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. This is done by conducting experiments with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM). The authors develop a hypothesis of how the Indian Ocean impacts the NAO.

Description: The multidecadal climate variability in the North Pacific region is investigated by using a 2000-yr-long integration with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. It is shown that the multidecadal variability evolves largely independent of the variations in the tropical Pacific, so that this kind of multidecadal variability may be regarded as internal to the North Pacific. The coupled model results suggest that the multidecadal variability can be explained by the dynamical ocean response to stochastic wind stress forcing. Superimposed on the red background variability, a multidecadal mode with a period of about 40 yr is simulated by the coupled model. This mode can be understood through the concept of spatial resonance between the ocean and the atmosphere.

Description: The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) involves study and intercomparison of multimodel simulations of present and future climate. The simulations of the future use idealized forcing in which CO, increase is compounded 1% yr(-1) until it doubles (near year 70) with global coupled models that contain, typically, components representing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface. Results from CMIP diagnostic sub-projects were presented at the Second CMIP Workshop held at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, in September 2003. Significant progress in diagnosing and understanding results from global coupled models has been made since the time of the First CMIP Workshop in Melbourne, Australia, in 1998. For example, the issue of flux adjustment is slowly fading as more and more models obtain stable multicentury surface climates without them. El Nino variability, usually about half the observed amplitude in the previous generation of coupled models, is now more accurately simulated in the present generation of global coupled models, though there are still biases in simulating the patterns of maximum variability. Typical resolutions of atmospheric component models contained in coupled models are now usually around 2.5degrees latitude-longitude, with the ocean components often having about twice the atmospheric model resolution, with even higher resolution in the equatorial Tropics. Some new-generation coupled models have atmospheric resolutions of around 1.5degrees latitude - longitude. Modeling groups now routinely run the CMIP control and 1% CO2 simulations in addition to twentieth- and twenty-first-century climate simulations with a variety of forcings e.g., volcanoes, solar variability, anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, ozone, and greenhouse gases, with the anthropogenic forcings for future climate as well. However, persistent systematic errors noted in previous generations of global coupled models are still present in the current generation (e.g., overextensive equatorial Pacific cold tongue, double ITCZ). This points to the next challenge for the global coupled climate modeling community. Planning and commencement of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) has prompted rapid coupled model development, which is leading to an expanded CMIP-like activity to collect and analyze results for the control, 1% CO2, and twentieth-, twenty-first, and twenty-second-century simulations performed for the AR4. The international climate community is encouraged to become involved in this analysis effort.

Description: The solar radiative properties of cirrus clouds depend on ice particle shape, size, and orientation, as well as on the spatial cloud structure. Radiation schemes in atmospheric circulation models rely on estimates of cloud optical thickness only. In the present work, a Monte Carlo radiative transfer code is applied to various cirrus cloud scenarios to obtain the radiative response of uncertainties in the above-mentioned microphysical and spatial cloud properties (except orientation). First, plane-parallel homogeneous (0D) clouds with different crystal shapes (hexagonal columns, irregular polycrystals) and 114 different size distributions have been considered. The resulting variabilities in the solar radiative fluxes are in the order of a few percent for the reflected and about 1% for the diffusely transmitted fluxes. Largest variabilities in the order of 10% to 30% are found for the solar broadband absorptance. However, these variabilities are smaller than the flux differences caused by the choice of ice particle geometries. The influence of cloud inhomogeneities on the radiative fluxes has been examined with the help of time series of Raman lidar extinction coefficient profiles as input for the radiative transfer calculations. Significant differences between results for inhomogeneous and plane-parallel clouds were found. These differences are in the same order of magnitude as those arising from using extremely different crystal shapes for the radiative transfer calculations. From this sensitivity study, the ranking of cirrus cloud properties according to their importance in solar broadband radiative transfer is optical thickness, ice crystal shape, ice particle size, and spatial structure.

Description: The Labrador Sea is one of the few regions of the World Ocean where deep convection takes place. Several moorings across the Labrador continental slope just north of Hamilton Bank show that convection does take place within the Labrador Current. Mixing above the lower Labrador slope is facilitated by the onshore along-isopycnal intrusions of low-potential-vorticity eddies that weaken the stratification, combined with baroclinic instability that sustains slanted mixing while restratifying the water column through horizontal fluxes. Above the shelf break, the Irminger seawater core is displaced onshore while the stratification weakens with the increase in isopycnal slope. The change in stratification is partially due to the onshore shift of the “classical” Labrador Current, baroclinic instability, and possibly slantwise convection.

Description: Sampling uncertainties in the voluntary observing ship (VOS)-based global ocean–atmosphere flux fields were estimated using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and ECMWF 40-yr Re-Analysis (ERA-40) as well as seasonal forecasts without data assimilation. Air–sea fluxes were computed from 6-hourly reanalyzed individual variables using state-of-the-art bulk formulas. Individual variables and computed fluxes were subsampled to simulate VOS-like sampling density. Random simulation of the number of VOS observations and simulation of the number of observations with contemporaneous sampling allowed for estimation of random and total sampling uncertainties respectively. Although reanalyses are dependent on VOS, constituting an important part of data assimilation input, it is assumed that the reanalysis fields adequately reproduce synoptic variability at the sea surface. Sampling errors were quantified by comparison of the regularly sampled (i.e., 6 hourly) and subsampled monthly fields of surface variables and fluxes. In poorly sampled regions random sampling errors amount to 2.5°–3°C for air temperature, 3 m s−1 for the wind speed, 2–2.5 g kg−1 for specific humidity, and 15%–20% of the total cloud cover. The highest random sampling errors in surface fluxes were found for the sensible and latent heat flux and range from 30 to 80 W m−2. Total sampling errors in poorly sampled areas may be higher than random ones by 60%. In poorly sampled subpolar latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and throughout much of the Southern Ocean the total sampling uncertainty in the net heat flux can amount to 80–100 W m−2. The highest values of the uncertainties associated with the interpolation/extrapolation into unsampled grid boxes are found in subpolar latitudes of both hemispheres for the turbulent fluxes, where they can be comparable with the sampling errors. Simple dependencies of the sampling errors on the number of samples and the magnitude of synoptic variability were derived. Sampling errors estimated from different reanalyses and from seasonal forecasts yield qualitatively comparable spatial patterns, in which the actual values of uncertainties are controlled by the magnitudes of synoptic variability. Finally, estimates of sampling uncertainties are compared with the other errors in air–sea fluxes and the reliability of the estimates obtained is discussed.

Description: Characteristic of the mesoscale variability in the Atlantic Ocean are investigated by analyzing the Geosat altimeter signal between 60°S and 60°N. The rms sea-surface variability for various frequency bands is studied, including the high-frequency eddy-containing band with periods 〈150 days. Wavenumber spectra and spatial eddy characteristics are analyzed over 10° by 10° boxes covering both hemispheres of the Atlantic Ocean. A comparison, with solutions of a high-resolution numerical experiment, developed as the Community Modeling Effort of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment, aids interpretation of the Geosat results in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic and provides a test of the model fluctuating eddy field. Results from Geosat altimetry show a wavenumber dependence close to k1−5 (k1 being the alongtrack wave-number) over almost the entire Atlantic Ocean except for areas in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic where the rms variability in the eddy-containing band is less than 5 cm, that is, not significantly different from the altimeter noise level. Characteristic eddy length scales inferred from Geosat data are linearly related with the deformation radius of the first baroclinic mode over the whole Atlantic Ocean, except for the equatorial regime (10°S to 10°N). The data-model comparison indicates that the high-resolution model with horizontal grid size of ⅓° and ° in latitude and longitude is quite capable of simulating observed eddy characteristics in the tropics and subtropics. In mid- and high latitudes, however, the model fails to simulate the pronounced poleward decrease in eddy scales. This leads to systematic discrepancies between the model and Geosat observation, with model scales being up to 50% larger than deduced from altimetry.

Description: Calcareous tube polychaetes (family Serpulidae) are notorious biofoulers that are easily transported and introduced to allochthonous habitats. Here we report the recent introduction of Hydroides dianthus (Verrill, 1873) to eastern Japan as its first occurrence in East Asia, probably from European or American coasts. Specimens had been found on artificial hard substrata together with congeners H. ezoensis, H. exaltatus and H. fusicolus in Tokyo Bay, Japan in 2006. The origin, vector, source of introduction and possible impact of H. dianthus on Japanese coasts is discussed from a perspective based on worldwide Hydroides transport.

Description: The tropical oceans have long been recognized as the most important region for large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions, giving rise to coupled climate variations on several time scales. During the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) decade, the focus of much tropical ocean research was on understanding El Niño–related processes and on development of tropical ocean models capable of simulating and predicting El Niño. These studies led to an appreciation of the vital role the ocean plays in providing the memory for predicting El Niño and thus making seasonal climate prediction feasible. With the end of TOGA and the beginning of Climate Variability and Prediction (CLIVAR), the scope of climate variability and predictability studies has expanded from the tropical Pacific and ENSO-centric basis to the global domain. In this paper the progress that has been made in tropical ocean climate studies during the early years of CLIVAR is discussed. The discussion is divided geographically into three tropical ocean basins with an emphasis on the dynamical processes that are most relevant to the coupling between the atmosphere and oceans. For the tropical Pacific, the continuing effort to improve understanding of large- and small-scale dynamics for the purpose of extending the skill of ENSO prediction is assessed. This paper then goes beyond the time and space scales of El Niño and discusses recent research activities on the fundamental issue of the processes maintaining the tropical thermocline. This includes the study of subtropical cells (STCs) and ventilated thermocline processes, which are potentially important to the understanding of the low-frequency modulation of El Niño. For the tropical Atlantic, the dominant oceanic processes that interact with regional atmospheric feedbacks are examined as well as the remote influence from both the Pacific El Niño and extratropical climate fluctuations giving rise to multiple patterns of variability distinguished by season and location. The potential impact of Atlantic thermohaline circulation on tropical Atlantic variability (TAV) is also discussed. For the tropical Indian Ocean, local and remote mechanisms governing low-frequency sea surface temperature variations are examined. After reviewing the recent rapid progress in the understanding of coupled dynamics in the region, this study focuses on the active role of ocean dynamics in a seasonally locked east–west internal mode of variability, known as the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). Influences of the IOD on climatic conditions in Asia, Australia, East Africa, and Europe are discussed. While the attempt throughout is to give a comprehensive overview of what is known about the role of the tropical oceans in climate, the fact of the matter is that much remains to be understood and explained. The complex nature of the tropical coupled phenomena and the interaction among them argue strongly for coordinated and sustained observations, as well as additional careful modeling investigations in order to further advance the current understanding of the role of tropical oceans in climate.

Description: Repeated shipboard observation sections across the boundary flow off northeastern Brazil as well as acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and current-meter records from a moored boundary array deployed during 2000–04 near 11°S are analyzed here for both the northward warm water flow by the North Brazil Undercurrent (NBUC) above approximately 1100 m and the southward flow of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) underneath. At 5°S, the mean from nine sections yields an NBUC transport of 26.5 ± 3.7 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) along the boundary; at 11°S the mean NBUC transport from five sections is 25.4 ± 7.4 Sv, confirming that the NBUC is already well developed at 11°S. At both latitudes a persistent offshore southward recirculation between 200- and 1100-m depth reduces the net northward warm water flow through the 5°S section (west of 31.5°W) to 22.1 ± 5.3 Sv and through the 11°S section to 21.7 ± 4.1 Sv (west of 32.0°W). The 4-yr-long NBUC transport time series from 11°S yields a seasonal cycle of 2.5 Sv amplitude with its northward maximum in July. Interannual NBUC transport variations are small, varying only by ±1.2 Sv during the four years, with no detectable trend. The southward flow of NADW within the deep western boundary current at 5°S is 25.5 ± 8.3 Sv with an offshore northward recirculation, yielding a nine-section mean of 20.3 ± 10.1 Sv west of 31.5°W. For Antarctic Bottom Water, a net northward flow of 4.4 ± 3.0 Sv is determined at 5°S. For the 11°S section, the moored array data show a pronounced energy maximum at 60–70-day period in the NADW depth range, which was identified in related work as deep eddies translating southward along the boundary. Based on a kinematic eddy model fit to the first half of the moored time series, the mean NADW transfer by the deep eddies at 11°S was estimated to be about 17 Sv. Given the large interannual variability of the deep near-boundary transport time series, which ranged from 14 to 24 Sv, the 11°S mean was considered to be not distinguishable from the mean at 5°S

Description: The space-time structure and predictability of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon was investigated. Two comprehensive datasets were analyzed by means of an advanced statistical method, one based on observational data and the other on data derived from an extended-range integration performed with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. It is shown that a considerable portion of the ENSO-related low-frequency climate variability in both datasets is associated with a cycle involving slow propagation in the equatorial oceanic beat content and the surface wind field. The existence of this cycle implies the ability of climate predictions in the tropics up to lead times of about one year. This is shown by conducting an ensemble of predictions with our coupled general circulation model. For the first time a coupled model of this type was successfully applied to ENSO predictions.

Description: A hybrid coupled model (HCM) of the tropical ocean–atmosphere system is described. The ocean component is a fully nonlinear ocean general circulation model (OGCM). The atmospheric element is a statistical model that specifies wind stress from ocean-model sea surface temperatures (SST). The coupled model demonstrates a chaotic behavior during extended integration that is related to slow changes in the background mean state of the ocean. The HCM also reproduces many of the observed variations in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system. The physical processes operative in the model together describe a natural mode of climate variability in the tropical Pacific ocean–atmosphere system. The mode is composed of (i) westward-propagating Rossby waves and (ii) an equatorially confined air–sea element that propagates eastward. Additional results showed that the seasonal dependence of the anomalous ocean–atmosphere coupling was vital to the model's ability to both replicate and forecast key features of the tropical Pacific climate system. A series of hindcast and forecast experiments was conducted with the model. It showed real skill in forecasting fall/winter tropical Pacific SST at a lead time of up to 18 months. This skill was largely confined to the central equatorial Pacific, just the region that is most prominent in teleconnections with the Northern Hemisphere during winter. This result suggests the model forecasts of winter SST at leads times of at least 6 months are good enough to be used with atmospheric models (statistical or OGCM) to attempt long-range winter forecasts for the North American continent. This suggestion is confirmed in Part II of this paper.

Description: We have investigated the seasonal cycle and the interannual variability of the tropical Indian Ocean circulation and the Indian summer monsoon simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model in a 26- year integration. Although the model exhibits significant climate drift, overall, the coupled GCM simulates realistically the seasonal changes in the tropical Indian Ocean and the onset and evolution of the Indian summer monsoon. The amplitudes of the seasonal changes, however, are underestimated. The coupled GCM also simulates considerable interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean circulation, which is partly related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and the associated changes in the Walker circulation. Changes in the surface wind stress appear to be crucial in forcing interannual variations in the Indian Ocean SST. As in the Pacific Ocean, the net surface beat flux acts as a negative feedback on the SST anomalies. The interannual variability in monsoon rainfall, simulated by the coupled GCM, is only about half as strong as observed. The reason for this is that the simulated interannual variability in the Indian monsoon appears to be related to internal processes within the atmosphere only. In contrast, an investigation based on observations shows a clear lead-lag relationship between interannual variations in the monsoon rainfall and tropical Pacific SST anomalies. Furthermore, the atmospheric GCM also fails to reproduce this lead-lag relationship between monsoon rainfall and tropical Pacific SST when run in a stand-alone integration with observed SSTs prescribed during the period 1970–1988. These results indicate that important physical processes relating tropical Pacific SST to Indian monsoon rainfall are not adequately modeled in our atmospheric GCM. Monsoon rainfall predictions appear therefore premature.