ALBERT

Description: This paper is the second in a series providing independent validation of community models of the outer corona and inner heliosphere. Here I present a comprehensive validation of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare the next generation of comparable forecasting models. The WSA model is used by a number of agencies to predict Solar wind conditions at Earth up to 4 days into the future. Given its importance to both the research and forecasting communities, it is essential that its performance be measured systematically and independently. I offer just such an independent and systematic validation. I report skill scores for the model's predictions of wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity for a large set of Carrington rotations. The model was run in all its routinely used configurations. It ingests synoptic line of sight magnetograms. For this study I generated model results for monthly magnetograms from multiple observatories, spanning the Carrington rotation range from 1650 to 2074. I compare the influence of the different magnetogram sources and performance at quiet and active times. I also consider the ability of the WSA model to forecast both sharp transitions in wind speed from slow to fast wind and reversals in the polarity of the radial component of the IMF. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare future versions of the model as well as the current and future generation of magnetohydrodynamic models under development for forecasting use.

Description: The coronal mass ejection (CME) link to geomagnetic storms stems from the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field contained in the CME flux ropes and in the sheath between the flux rope and the CME-driven shock. A typical storm-causing CME is characterized by (i) high speed, (ii) large angular width (mostly halos and partial halos), and (iii)solar source location close to the central meridian. For CMEs originating at larger central meridian distances, the storms are mainly caused by the sheath field. Both the magnetic and energy contents of the storm-producing CMEs can be traced to the magnetic structure of active regions and the free energy stored in them.

Description: Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) data have been visually searched for coronal "EIT wave" transients over the period beginning from 1997 March 24 and extending through 1998 June 24. The dates covered start at the beginning of regular high-cadence (more than one image every 20 minutes) observations, ending at the four-month interruption of SOHO observations in mid-1998. One hundred and seventy six events are included in this catalog. The observations range from "candidate" events, which were either weak or had insufficient data coverage, to events which were well defined and were clearly distinguishable in the data. Included in the catalog are times of the EIT images in which the events are observed, diagrams indicating the observed locations of the wave fronts and associated active regions, and the speeds of the wave fronts. The measured speeds of the wave fronts varied from less than 50 to over 700 km s(exp -1) with "typical" speeds of 200-400 km s(exp -1).

Description: I develop and document a set of procedures which test the quality of predictions of solar wind speed and polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) made by coupled models of the ambient solar corona and heliosphere. The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model is used to illustrate the application of these validation procedures. I present an algorithm which detects transitions of the solar wind from slow to high speed. I also present an algorithm which processes the measured polarity of the outward directed component of the IMF. This removes high-frequency variations to expose the longer-scale changes that reflect IMF sector changes. I apply these algorithms to WSA model predictions made using a small set of photospheric synoptic magnetograms obtained by the Global Oscillation Network Group as input to the model. The results of this preliminary validation of the WSA model (version 1.6) are summarized.

Description: In this letter, I show that the discrepancies in the geoeffectiveness of halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) reported in the literature arise due to the varied definitions of halo CMEs used by different authors. In particular, I show that the low geoeffectiveness rate is a direct consequence of including partial halo CMEs. The geoeffectiveness of partial halo CMEs is lower because they are of low speed and likely to make a glancing impact on Earth. Key words: Coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic storms, geoeffectiveness, halo CMEs.

Description: Earth's space environment is closely controlled by solar variability over various time scales. Solar variability is characterized by its output in the form of mass and electromagnetic output. Solar mass emission also interacts with mass entering into the heliosphere in the form of cosmic rays and neutral material. This paper provides an overview of how the solar variability affects Earth's space environment.

Description: We present a new calibration of the elemental-abundance data for Asteroid 433 Fros taken by the X-ray spectrometer (XRS) aboard the NEAR-Shoemaker spacecraft. (NEAR is an acronym for "Near-Earth Asteroid Rendezvous,") Quintification of the asteroid surface elemental abundance ratios depends critically on accurate knowledge of the incident solar X-ray spectrum, which was monitored simultaneously with asteroid observations. Previously published results suffered from incompletely characterized systematic uncertainties due to an imperfect ground calibrations of the NEAR gas solar monitor. The solar monitor response function and associated uncertainties have now been characterized by cross-calibration of a large sample of NEAR solar monitor flight data against. contemporary broadband solar X-ray data from the Earth-orbiting GOES-8 (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite). The results have been used to analyze XRS spectra acquired from Eros during eight major solar flares (including three that have not previously been reported). The end product of this analysis is a revised set of Eros surface elemental abundance ratios with new error estimates that more accurately reflect the remaining uncertainties in the solar flare spectra: Mg/Si=.753 +0.078/-0.055, Al/Si=0.069 +/-0.055, S/Si=0.005+/-0.008, Ca/Si=0.060+0.023/-0.024, and Fe/Si= 1.578+0.338/-0.320. These revised abundance ratios are consitent within cited uncertainties with the results of Nittler et al. [Nittler, L.R., and 14 colleagues, 2001. Meteorit Planet. Sci 36, 1673-1695] and thus support the prior conclusions that 433 Eros has major-element composition simular to ordinary chondrites with the exception of a stong depletoin in sulfur, most likely caused by space weathering.

Description: The magnetic fields that drive solar activity are complex and inherently three-dimensional structures. Twisted flux ropes, magnetic reconnection and the initiation of solar storms, as well as space weather propagation through the heliosphere, are just a few of the topics that cannot properly be observed or modeled in only two dimensions. Examination of this three-dimensional complex has been hampered by the fact that solar remote sensing observations have occurred only from the Earth-Sun line, and in situ observations, while available from a greater variety of locations, have been sparse throughout the heliosphere.

Description: This paper presents a detailed study of chromospheric evaporation using the EUV Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) onboard Hinode in conjunction with HXR observat,ions from RHESSI. The advanced capabilities of EIS were used to measure Doppler shifts in 15 emission lines covering the temperature range T=0.05-16 MK during the impulsive phase of a C-class flare on 2007 December 14. Blueshifts indicative of the evaporated material were observed in six emission lines from Fe XIV-XXIV (2-16 MK). Upflow velocity was found to scale with temperature as v(sub up) (kilometers per second) approximately equal to 5-17 T (MK). Although the hottest emission lines, Fe XXIII and Fe XXIV, exhibited upflows of greater than 200 kilometers per second, their line profiles were found to be dominated by a stationary component in stark contrast to the predictions of the standard flare model. Emission from O VI-Fe XIII lines (0.5-1.5 MK) was found to be redshifted by v(sub down) (kilometers per second) approximately equal to 60-17 T (MK) and was interpreted as the downward-moving 'plug' characteristic of explosive evaporation. These downflows occur at temperatures significantly higher than previously expected. Both upflows and downflows were spatially and temporally correlated with HXR emission observed by RHESSI that provided the properties of the electron beam deemed to be the driver of the evaporation. The energy contained in the electron beam was found to be greater than or equal to 10(sup 11) ergs per square centimeter per second consistent with the value required to drive explosive chromospheric evaporation from hydrodynamic simulations.

Description: A model for heliospheric solar wind charge exchange (SWCX) X-ray emission is applied to a series of XMM-Newton observations of the interplanetary focusing cone of interstellar helium. The X-ray data are from three coupled observations of the South Ecliptic Pole (SEP, to observe the cone) and the Hubble Deep Field-North (HDFN. to monitor global variations of the SWCX emission due to variations in the solar wind) from the period 24 November to 15 December 2003. There is good qualitative agreement between the model predictions and thc data with the maximum SWCX flux observed at an ecliptic longitude of approx. 72deg, consistent with the central longitude of the He cone. We observe a total excess of 2.1 +/- 1.3 LU in the O VII line and 2.0 +/- 0.9 LU in the 0 VIII line. However. the SWCX emission model, which was adjusted for solar wind conditions appropriate for late 2003, predicts an excess from the He cone of only 0.5 LU and 0.2 LU, respectively, in the O VII and O VIII lines. We discuss thc model to data comparison and provide possible explanations for the discrepancies. We also qualitatively reexamine our SWCX n~ocicl predictions in the 1/4 keV band with data from the ROSAT All-Sky Survey towards the North and South Ecliptic Poles, when the He cone was probably first detected in soft X-rays.

Description: One of the figures (Fig. 4) in "Solar sources and geospace consequences of interplanetary magnetic Clouds observed during solar cycle 23 -- Paper 1" by Gopalswamy et al. (2008, JASTP, Vol. 70, Issues 2-4, February 2008, pp. 245-253) is incorrect because of a software error in t he routine that was used to make the plot. The source positions of various magnetic cloud (MC) types are therefore not plotted correctly.

Description: Solar Orbiter represents a revolutionary advance in observing the Sun. Orbiter will have optical and XUV telescopes that will deliver high-resolution images and spectra from vantages points that have never been possible before, dose to the Sun and at high latitudes. At the same time, Orbiter will measure in situ the properties of the solar wind that originate from the observed solar photosphere and corona. In this presentation, Ivvi|/ describe how with its unique vantage points and capabilities, Orbiter will allow us to answer, for the first time, some of the major question in solar physics, such as: Where does the slow wind originate? How do CMEs initiate and evolve? What is the heating mechanism in corona/ loops.

Description: Recent high-resolution observations from the Hinode mission show dramatically that the Sun's atmosphere is filled with explosive activity ranging from chromospheric explosions that reach heights of Mm, to coronal jets that can extend to solar radii, to giant coronal mass ejections (CME) that reach the edge of the heliosphere. The driver for all this activity is believed to be 3D magnetic reconnection. From the large variation observed in the temporal behavior of solar activity, it is clear that reconnection in the corona must take on a variety of distinct forms. The explosive nature of jets and CMEs requires that the reconnection be impulsive in that it stays off until a substantial store of free energy has been accumulated, but then turns on abruptly and stays on until much of this free energy is released. The key question, therefore, is what determines whether the reconnection is impulsive or not. We present some of the latest observations and numerical models of explosive and non-explosive solar activity. We argue that, in order for the reconnection to be impulsive, it must be driven by a quasi-ideal instability. We discuss the generality of our results for understanding 31) reconnection in other contexts.

Description: Characterization of the three-dimensional structure of solar transients using incomplete plane of sky data is a difficult problem whose solutions have potential for societal benefit in terms of space weather applications. In this paper transients are characterized in three dimensions by means of conic coronal mass ejection (CME) approximation. A novel method for the automatic determination of cone model parameters from observed halo CMEs is introduced. The method uses both standard image processing techniques to extract the CME mass from white-light coronagraph images and a novel inversion routine providing the final cone parameters. A bootstrap technique is used to provide model parameter distributions. When combined with heliospheric modeling, the cone model parameter distributions will provide direct means for ensemble predictions of transient propagation in the heliosphere. An initial validation of the automatic method is carried by comparison to manually determined cone model parameters. It is shown using 14 halo CME events that there is reasonable agreement, especially between the heliocentric locations of the cones derived with the two methods. It is argued that both the heliocentric locations and the opening half-angles of the automatically determined cones may be more realistic than those obtained from the manual analysis

Description: Cancellation of magnetic flux in the solar photosphere and chromosphere has been linked observationally and theoretically to a broad range of solar activity, from filament channel formation to CME initiation. Because this phenomenon is typically measured at only a single layer in the atmosphere, in the radial (line of sight) component of the magnetic field, the actual processes behind this observational signature are ambiguous. It is clear that reconnection is involved in some way, but the location of the reconnection sites and associated connectivity changes remain uncertain in most cases. We are using numerical modeling to demystify flux cancellation, beginning with the simplest possible configuration: a subphotospheric Lundquist flux tube surrounded by a potential field, immersed in a gravitationally stratified atmosphere, spanning many orders of magnitude in plasma beta. In this system, cancellation is driven slowly by a 2-cell circulation pattern imposed in the convection zone, such that the tops of the cells are located around the beta=1 level (i.e., the photosphere) and the flows converge and form a downdraft at the polarity inversion line; note however that no flow is imposed along the neutral line. We will present the results of 2D and 3D MHD-AMR simulations of flux cancellation, in which the flux at the photosphere begins in either an unsheared or sheared state. In all cases, a low-lying flux rope is formed by reconnection at the polarity inversion line within a few thousand seconds. The flux rope remains stable and does not rise, however, in contrast to models which do not include the presence of significant mass loading.

Description: The characterization and calibration of hyperspectral imagers is a challenging one that is expected to become even more challenging as needs increase for highly-accurate radiometric data from such systems. The preflight calibration of the Advanced Responsive Tactically Effective Military Imaging Spectrometer (ARTEMIS) is used as an example of the difficulties to calibrate hyperspectrally. Results from a preflight solar radiation-based calibration are presented with a discussion of the uncertainties in such a method including the NISI-traceable and SItraceable aspects. Expansion on the concept of solar-based calibration is given with descriptions of methods that view the solar disk directly, illuminate a solar diffuser that is part of the sensor's inflight calibration, and illuminate an external diffuser that is imaged by the sensor. The results of error analysis show that it is feasible to achieve preflight calibration using the sun as a source at the same level of uncertainty as those of lamp-based approaches. The error analysis is evaluated and verified through the solar-radiation-based calibration of several of laboratory grade radiometers. Application of these approaches to NASA's upcoming CLARREO mission are discussed including proposed methods for significantly reducing the uncertainties to allow CLARREO data to be used for climate data records.

Description: The 11-year sunspot cycle was discovered by an amateur astronomer in 1844. Visual and photographic observations of sunspots have been made by both amateurs and professionals over the last 400 years. These observations provide key statistical information about the sunspot cycle that do allow for predictions of future activity. However, sunspots and the sunspot cycle are magnetic in nature. For the last 100 years these magnetic measurements have been acquired and used exclusively by professional astronomers to gain new information about the nature of the solar activity cycle. Recently, magnetic dynamo models have evolved to the stage where they can assimilate past data and provide predictions. With the advent of the Internet and open data policies, amateurs now have equal access to the same data used by professionals and equal opportunities to contribute (but, alas, without pay). This talk will describe some of the more useful prediction techniques and reveal what they say about the intensity of the upcoming sunspot cycle.

Description: A fundamental property of the Sun's corona is that it is violently dynamic. The most spectacular and most energetic manifestations of this activity are the giant magnetic disruptions that give rise to coronal mass ejections (CME) and eruptive flares. These major events are of critical importance, because they drive the most destructive forms of space weather at Earth and in the solar system, and they provide a unique opportunity to study, in revealing detail, the interaction of magnetic field and matter, in particular, magnetohydrodynamic instability and nonequilibrium - processes that are at the heart of laboratory and astrophysical plasma physics. Recent observations by a number of NASA space missions have given us new insights into the physical mechanisms that underlie coronal explosions. Furthermore, massively-parallel computations have now allowed us to calculate fully three-dimensional models for the Sun's activity. In this talk I will review some of the latest observations of the Sun, including those from the just-launched Hinode and STEREO mission, and discuss recent advances in the theory and modeling of explosive solar activity.

Description: It is widely believed that the simple coronal loops observed by XUV imagers, such as EIT, TRACE, or XRT, actually have a complex internal structure consisting of many (perhaps hundreds) of unresolved, interwoven "strands". According to the nanoflare model, photospheric motions tangle the strands, causing them to reconnect and release the energy required to produce the observed loop plasma. Although the strands, themselves, are unresolved by present-generation imagers, there is compelling evidence for their existence and for the nanoflare model from analysis of loop intensities and temporal evolution. A problem with this scenario is that, although reconnection can eliminate some of the strand tangles, it cannot destroy helicity, which should eventually build up to observable scales. we consider, therefore, the injection and evolution of helicity by the nanoflare process and its implications for the observed structure of loops and the large-scale corona. we argue that helicity does survive and build up to observable levels, but on spatial and temporal scales larger than those of coronal loops. we discuss the implications of these results for coronal loops and the corona, in general .

Description: We discuss the magnetic field strength B(t) and polarity observed by Voyager 1 (V1) in the heliosheath at the heliographic latitude approximately equal 34 deg as it moved away from the sun from 2005 through 2008.82. The pattern of the polarity of the magnetic field changed from alternating positive and negative polarities to predominantly negative polarities (magnetic fields pointing along the Archimedean spiral field angle toward the sun) at approximately equal 2006.23). This transition indicates that the latitudinal extent of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) was decreasing in the supersonic solar wind, as expected for the declining phase of the solar cycle, and as predicted by extrapolation of the magnetic neutral line near the photosphere to the position of V1. However, the polarity was not uniformly negative in during 2008, in contrast to the predicted polarity. This difference suggests that the maximum latitudinal extent of the HCS was tending to increase in the northern hemisphere in the heliosheath, while it was decreasing in the supersonic solar wind. The large-scale magnetic field strength B(t) HCS was observed by V1 from 2005 through 2008.820. During this interval of decreasing solar activity toward solar minimum, B(t) at 1 AU was decreasing and the solar wind speed V at the latitude of V1 was increasing. Adjusting the temporal profile of B(t) observed by V1 for the solar cycle variations of B and V in the supersonic solar wind, we find that the radial gradient of B(R) in heliosheath from the radial distance R = 94.2 AU to 107.9 AU between 2005.0 and 2008.82 was 0.0017 nT/AU 〈= grad B 〈= 0.0055 nT/AU or grad B = (0.0036 +/- 0.0019) nT/AU

Description: Pallavicini et al. (1977) suggested that there are two separate classes of solar soft X-ray events, impulsive and gradual. Cane et al. (1986) suggested that there might be two corresponding classes of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events. For both soft X-ray events and for SEP events, the fundamental question was whether there were two distinct classes of events or, alternatively, whether there was a continuum of event types with impulsive and gradual events at opposite ends of the distribution. Reames (1988) published results showing a bimodal distribution of Fe/O, which clearly suggested that there really are two distinct event types. Reames (2002) went further and suggested that impulsive events and gradual events were caused by two different types of solar events at the Sun corresponding to two different magnetic topologies. The energetic particles seen near earth from the two different event classes were considered to be accelerated in solar flares for impulsive events and by CME-driven shocks for gradual events. The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft was launched in 1997 and has made observations of SEP events over the most recent solar activity cycle. We will examine data from the SIS and ULEIS instruments on ACE to see if the bimodal distribution of Fe/O is also evident in that data.

Description: In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and produce improved forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), represents one of the most advanced space-based atmospheric sounding systems. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to optimally assimilate high resolution AIRS profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) version 2.2 using WRF-Var. The paper focuses on development of background error covariances for the regional domain and background type, and an optimal methodology for ingesting AIRS temperature and moisture profiles as separate overland and overwater retrievals with different error characteristics. The AIRS thermodynamic profiles are derived from the version 5.0 Earth Observing System (EOS) science team retrieval algorithm and contain information about the quality of each temperature layer. The quality indicators were used to select the highest quality temperature and moisture data for each profile location and pressure level. The analyses were then used to conduct a month-long series of regional forecasts over the continental U.S. The long-term impacts of AIRS profiles on forecast were assessed against verifying NAM analyses and stage IV precipitation data.

Description: The meridional flow speed determines the strength of the Sun s polar fields in both surface flux transport models and in flux transport dynamos. The polar fields produced during cycle 23 were half as strong as those produced in the previous two cycles. Helioseismic measurements of the meridional flow over the rising phase of cycle 23 indicated a decrease in flow velocity. This observation was used in flux transport dynamo models to predict a delayed start for cycle 24 and was consistent with weak polar fields and a slower equatorward drift of the active latitudes during cycle 23. On the other hand, the surface flux transport models require a faster meridional flow to produce the weak polar fields. We have begun measurements of the surface meridional flow by tracking the motions of weak (outside active regions) magnetic field elements in magnetograms from SOHO/MDI over cycle 23 and from NSO/Kitt Peak over cycles 21 to 23. We confirm the slowdown of the meridional flow over the rising phase of cycle 23 but find that the flow speed returned to its previous level during the declining phase of cycle 23. Furthermore, this appears to be a normal feature of the meridional flow during sunspot cycles. The flow is fast at minima and slow at maxima. The lack of a significantly different meridional flow during cycle 23 is very problematic for both surface flux transport models and flux transport dynamos.

Description: Recognizing the importance of distributed observations of all elements of the Sun-to-Earth system and the synergies between observation and theory and between basic and targeted research, the National Research Council's 2003 solar and space physics decadal survey laid out an integrated research strategy that sought to extend and augment what has now become the Heliophysics Great Observatory as well as to enhance NASA, NOAA, NSF, and DOD's other solar and space physics research activities. The Integrated Research Strategy provided a prioritized list of flight missions and theory and modeling programs that would advance the relevant physical theories, incorporate those theories in models that describe a system of interactions between the Sun and the space environment, obtain data on the system, and analyze and test the adequacy of the theories and models. As directed by Congress in the NASA Authorization Act of 2005, the purpose of this report is to assess the progress of NASA's Heliophysics Division at the 5-year mark against the NASA goals and priorities laid out in the decadal survey. In addition to the Integrated Research Strategy, the decadal survey also considered non-mission-specific initiatives to foster a robust solar and space physics program. The decadal survey set forth driving science challenges as well as recommendations devoted to the need for technology development, collaborations and cooperation with other disciplines, understanding the effects of the space environment on technology and society, education and public outreach, and steps that could strengthen and enhance the research enterprise. Unfortunately, very little of the recommended NASA program priorities from the decadal survey s Integrated Research Strategy will be realized during the period (2004-2013) covered by the survey. Mission cost growth, reordering of survey mission priorities, and unrealized budget assumptions have delayed or deferred nearly all of the NASA spacecraft missions recommended in the survey. As a result, the status of the Integrated Research Strategy going forward is in jeopardy, and the loss of synergistic capabilities in space will constitute a serious impediment to future progress. Some of these factors were largely outside NASA's control, but as the assessments in Chapter 2 of this report detail, many factors were driven by subsequent NASA decisions about mission science content, mission size, and mission sequence. Overcoming these challenges, as well as other key issues like launch vehicle availability, will be critical if NASA is to realize more of the decadal survey's priorities over the next 5 years as well as priorities in solar and space physics research in the long term. Chapter 3 of this report provides recommendations about how NASA can better fulfill the 2003 decadal survey and improve future decadal surveys in solar and space physics.

Description: Solar occultation has proven to be a reliable technique for the measurement of atmospheric constituents in the stratosphere. NASA's Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiments (SAGE, SAGE II, and SAGE III) together have provided over 25 years of quality solar occultation data, a data record which has been an important resource for the scientific exploration of atmospheric composition and climate change. Herein, we describe an improvement to the processing of SAGE data that corrects for a previously uncorrected short-term timedependence in the calibration function. The variability relates to the apparent rotation of the scanning track with respect to the face of the sun due to the motion of the satellite. Correcting for this effect results in a decrease in the measurement noise in the Level 1 line-of-sight optical depth measurements of approximately 40% in the middle and upper stratospheric SAGE II and III where it has been applied. The technique is potentially useful for any scanning solar occultation instrument, and suggests further improvement for future occultation measurements if a full disk imaging system can be included.

Description: This report is intended to record and communicate to our colleagues, stakeholders, and the public at large about heliophysics scientific and flight program achievements and milestones for 2008, for which NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Heliophysics Science Division (HSD) made important contributions. HSD comprises approximately 261 scientists, technologists, and administrative personnel dedicated to the goal of advancing our knowledge and understanding of the Sun and the wide variety of domains that its variability influences. Our activities include Lead science investigations involving flight hardware, theory, and data analysis and modeling that will answer the strategic questions posed in the Heliophysics Roadmap; Lead the development of new solar and space physics mission concepts and support their implementation as Project Scientists; Provide access to measurements from the Heliophysics Great Observatory through our Science Information Systems, and Communicate science results to the public and inspire the next generation of scientists and explorers.

Description: Examined are single- and bi-variate geomagnetic precursors for predicting the maximum amplitude (RM) of a sunspot cycle several years in advance. The best single-variate fit is one based on the average of the ap index 36 mo prior to cycle minimum occurrence (E(Rm)), having a coefficient of correlation (r) equal to 0.97 and a standard error of estimate (se) equal to 9.3. Presuming cycle 24 not to be a statistical outlier and its minimum in March 2008, the fit suggests cycle 24 s RM to be about 69 +/- 20 (the 90% prediction interval). The weighted mean prediction of 11 statistically important single-variate fits is 116 +/- 34. The best bi-variate fit is one based on the maximum and minimum values of the 12-mma of the ap index; i.e., APM# and APm*, where # means the value post-E(RM) for the preceding cycle and * means the value in the vicinity of cycle minimum, having r = 0.98 and se = 8.2. It predicts cycle 24 s RM to be about 92 +/- 27. The weighted mean prediction of 22 statistically important bi-variate fits is 112 32. Thus, cycle 24's RM is expected to lie somewhere within the range of about 82 to 144. Also examined are the late-cycle 23 behaviors of geomagnetic indices and solar wind velocity in comparison to the mean behaviors of cycles 2023 and the geomagnetic indices of cycle 14 (RM = 64.2), the weakest sunspot cycle of the modern era.

Description: A long XMM-Newton exposure is used to observe solar wind charge exchange (SWCX) emission from exospheric material in and outside Earth's magnetosheath. The light curve of the O vii (0.5-0.62 keV) band is compared with a model for the expected emission, and while the emission is faint and the light curve has considerable scatter, the correlation is significant to better than 99.9%. This result demonstrates the validity of the geocoronal SWCX emission model for predicting a contribution to astrophysical observations to a scale factor of order unity (1.5). In addition, an average value of the SWCX O vii emission from the magnetosheath over the observation of 2.6 +/- 0.5 LU is derived. The results also demonstrate the potential utility of using X-ray observations to study global phenomena of the magnetosheath which currently are only investigated using in situ measurements.

Description: The Genesis sample return capsule, though broken during the landing impact, contained most of the shattered ultra-pure solar wind collectors comprised of silicon and other semiconductor wafers materials. Post-flight analysis revealed that all wafer fragments were littered with surface particle contamination from spacecraft debris as well as soil from the impact site. This particulate contamination interferes with some analyses of solar wind. In early 2005, the Genesis science team decided to investigate methods for removing the surface particle contamination prior to solar wind analysis.

Description: Luminescence is typically described as light emitted by objects at low temperatures, induced by chemical reactions, electrical energy, atomic interactions, or acoustical and mechanical stress. An example is photoluminescence created when photons (electromagnetic radiation) strike a substance and are absorbed, resulting in the emission of a resonant fluorescent or phosphorescent albedo. In planetary science, there exists X-ray fluorescence induced by sunlight absorbed by a regolith a property used to measure some of the chemical composition of the Moon s surface during the Apollo program. However, there exists an equally important phenomenon in planetary science which will be designated here as photon luminescence. It is not conventional photoluminescence because the incoming radiation that strikes the planetary surface is not photons but rather cosmic rays (CRs). Nevertheless, the result is the same: the generation of a photon albedo. In particular, Galactic CRs (GCRs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) both induce a photon albedo that radiates from the surface of the Moon. Other particle albedos are generated as well, most of which are hazardous (e.g. neutrons). The photon luminescence or albedo of the lunar surface induced by GCRs and SEPs will be derived here, demonstrating that the Moon literally glows in the dark (when there is no sunlight or Earthshine). This extends earlier work on the same subject [1-4]. A side-by-side comparison of these two albedos and related mitigation measures will also be discussed.

Description: The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) instrument on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite is designed to produce high-resolution Doppler velocity maps of oscillations at the solar surface with high temporal cadence. To take advantage of these high-quality oscillation data, a time-distance helioseismology pipeline has been implemented at the Joint Science Operations Center (JSOC) at Stanford University. The aim of this pipeline is to generate maps of acoustic travel times from oscillations on the solar surface, and to infer subsurface 3D flow velocities and sound-speed perturbations. The wave travel times are measured from cross covariances of the observed solar oscillation signals. For implementation into the pipeline we have investigated three different travel-time definitions developed in time-distance helioseismology: a Gabor wavelet fitting (Kosovichev and Duvall, 1997), a minimization relative to a reference cross-covariance function (Gizon and Birch, 2002), and a linearized version of the minimization method (Gizon and Birch, 2004). Using Doppler velocity data from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) instrument on board SOHO, we tested and compared these definitions for the mean and difference travel-time perturbations measured from reciprocal signals. Although all three procedures return similar travel times in a quiet Sun region, the method of Gizon and Birch (2004) gives travel times that are significantly different from the others in a magnetic (active) region. Thus, for the pipeline implementation we chose the procedures of Kosovichev and Duvall (1997) and Gizon and Birch (2002). We investigated the relationships among these three travel-time definitions, their sensitivities to fitting parameters, and estimated the random errors they produce

Description: The inner coronagraph (COR1) of the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) mission has made it possible to observe CMEs in the spatial domain overlapping with that of the metric type II radio bursts. The type II bursts were associated with generally weak flares (mostly B and C class soft X-ray flares), but the CMEs were quite energetic. Using CME data for a set of type II bursts during the declining phase of solar cycle 23, we determine the CME height when the type II bursts start, thus giving an estimate of the heliocentric distance at which CME-driven shocks form. This distance has been determined to be approx. 1.5Rs (solar radii), which coincides with the distance at which the Alfven speed profile has a minimum value.We also use type II radio observations from STEREO/WAVES and Wind/WAVES observations to show that CMEs with moderate speed drive either weak shocks or no shock at all when they attain a height where the Alfven speed peaks (approx. 3Rs - 4Rs). Thus the shocks seem to be most efficient in accelerating electrons in the heliocentric distance range of 1.5Rs to 4Rs. By combining the radial variation of the CME speed in the inner corona (CME speed increase) and interplanetary medium (speed decrease) we were able to correctly account for the deviations from the universal drift-rate spectrum of type II bursts, thus confirming the close physical connection between type II bursts and CMEs. The average height (approx 1.5Rs) of STEREO CMEs at the time of type II bursts is smaller than that (2.2Rs) obtained for SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) CMEs. We suggest that this may indicate, at least partly, the density reduction in the corona between the maximum and declining phases, so a given plasma level occurs closer to the Sun in the latter phase. In two cases, there was a diffuse shock-like feature ahead of the main body of the CME, indicating a standoff distance of 1Rs - 2Rs by the time the CME left the LASCO field of view.

Description: A discussion of the thickness of current sheets in solar eruptions led Lin et al. in 2007 to estimate very large values for the effective resistivity. This paper addresses some questions raised by that paper. The limb synoptic map technique is applied to find the current sheet thickness to be between 5.OE4 and 4.6E5 km, increasing with both time and altitude. The possibility that large apparent values result from projection effects is examined and rejected. Theoretical scaling laws corroborate this conclusion.

Description: Eruption of a coronal mass ejection (CME) is believed to drag and open the coronal magnetic field, presumably leading to the formation of a large-scale current sheet and field relaxation by magnetic reconnection. This paper analyzes the physical characteristics of ray-like coronal features formed in the aftermath of CMEs, to confirm whether interpreting such phenomena in terms of a reconnecting current sheet is consistent with observations. Methods: The study focuses on UVCS/SOHO and LASCO/SOHO measurements of the ray width, density excess, and coronal velocity field as a function of the radial distance. The morphology of the rays implies that they are produced by Petschek-like reconnection in the large-scale current sheet formed in the wake of CME. The hypothesis is supported by the flow pattern, often showing outflows along the ray, and sometimes also inflows into the ray. The inferred inflow velocities range from 3 to 30 km/s, and are consistent with the narrow opening-angle of rays, which add up to a few degrees. The density of rays is an order of magnitude higher than in the ambient corona. The model results are consistent with the observations, revealing that the main cause of the density excess in rays is a transport of the dense plasma from lower to higher heights by the reconnection outflow.

Description: The first measurement of the HCFC-142b (CH3CClF2) trend near the tropopause has been derived from volume mixing ratio (VMR) measurements at northern and southern hemisphere mid-latitudes for the 2004-2008 time period from spaceborne solar occultation observations recorded at 0.02/cm resolution with the ACE (atmospheric chemistry experiment) Fourier transform spectrometer. The HCFC-142b molecule is currently the third most abundant HCFC (hydrochlorofluorocarbon) in the atmosphere and ACE measurements over this time span show a continuous rise in its volume mixing ratio. Monthly average measurements at northern and southern hemisphere midlatitudes have similar increase rates that are consistent with surface trend measurements for a similar time span. A mean northern hemisphere profile for the time span shows a near constant VMR at 8-20km altitude range, consistent on average for the same time span with in situ results. The nearly constant vertical VMR profile also agrees with model predictions of a long lifetime in the lower atmosphere.

Description: The Whole Heliospheric Interval (WHI) period of 20 March - 16 April had a "quiet side" of the Sun, and an "active side," with three ARs. At least two of the ARs produced CMEs, but there were several events that may have been "confined eruptions" from these regions too. Examining the magnetic environment of the erupting regions gives insight into the onset and dynamics of the eruptions. Several of the CMEs can be traced back to likely disk sources, but several unmatched cases still remain. More work is needed to sort through these points.

Description: Toroidal variable-line-space (VLS) gratings are an important factor in the design of an efficient VUV solar telescope that will measure the CIV (155nm) and MgII (280nm) emissions lines in the Sun's transition region. In 1983 Kita and Harada described spherical VLS gratings but the technology to commercially fabricate these devices is a recent development, especially for toroidal surfaces. This paper will describe why this technology is important in the development of the Solar Ultraviolet Magnetograph Investigation (SUMI) sounding rocket program (the good), the delays due to the conversion between the TVLS grating design and the optical fabrication (the bad), and finally the optical testing, alignment and tolerancing of the gratings (the ugly). The Solar Ultraviolet Magnetograph Investigation, SUMI, has been reported in several papers since this program began in 2000. The emphasis of this paper is to describe SUMI's Toroidal Variable-Line-Space (TVLS) gratings. These gratings help SUMI meet its scientific goals which require both high spectral resolution and high optical efficiency for magnetic field measurements in the vacuum ultraviolet wavelength band of the solar spectrum (the good). Unfortunately, the technology readiness level of these gratings has made their implementation difficult, especially for a sounding rocket payload (the bad). Therefore, this paper emphasizes the problems and solutions that were developed to use these gratings in SUMI (the ugly). Section 2 contains a short review of the scientific goals of SUMI and why this mission is important in the understanding of the 3D structure of the magnetic field on the Sun. The flight hardware that makes up the SUMI payload is described in Section 3 with emphasis on those components that affect the TVLS gratings. Section 4 emphasizes the alignment, testing and optical modeling that were developed to optimize the performance of these gratings.

Description: This paper describes the scientific goals of a sounding rocket program called the Solar Ultraviolet Magnetograph Investigation (SUMI), presents a brief description of the optics that were developed to meet those goals and discusses the spectral, spatial and polarization characteristics of SUMI's Toroidal Variable-Line-Space (TVLS) gratings; which are critical to SUMI's measurements of the magnetic field in the Sun's transition region.

Description: Marshall Space Flight Center's (MSFC) is developing a Vacuum Ultraviolet (VUV) Fabry-P rot Interferometer that will be launched on a sounding rocket for high throughput, high-cadence, extended field of view CIV (155nm) measurements. These measurements will provide (i) Dopplergrams for studies of waves, oscillations, explosive events, and mass motions through the transition region, and, (ii), polarization measurements to study the magnetic field in the transition region. This paper will describe the scientific goals of the instrument, a brief description of the optics and the polarization characteristics of the VUV Fabry P rot.

Description: Lorentz air-broadened half widths, pressure-induced shifts and their temperature dependences have been measured for over 430 transitions (allowed and forbidden) in the v4 band of (CH4)-12 over the temperature range 210 to 314 K. A multispectrum non linear least squares fitting technique was used to simultaneously fit a large number of high-resolution (0.006 to 0.01/cm) absorption spectra of pure methane and mixtures of methane diluted with dry air. Line mixing was detected for pairs of A-, E-, and F-species transitions in the P- and R-branch manifolds and quantified using the off-diagonal relaxation matrix elements formalism. The measured parameters are compared to air- and N2-broadened values reported in the literature for the v4 and other bands. The dependence of the various spectral line parameters upon the tetrahedral symmetry species and rotational quantum numbers of the transitions is discussed. All data used in the present work were recorded using the McMath-Pierce Fourier transform spectrometer located at the National Solar Observatory on Kitt Peak.

Description: Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) observations of 18 double hard X-ray sources seen at energies above 25 keV are analyzed to determine the spatial extent of the most compact structures evident in each case. The following four image reconstruction algorithms were used: Clean, Pixon, and two routines using visibilities maximum entropy and forward fit (VFF). All have been adapted for this study to optimize their ability to provide reliable estimates of the sizes of the more compact sources. The source fluxes, sizes, and morphologies obtained with each method are cross-correlated and the similarities and disagreements are discussed. The full width at half-maximum (FWHM) of the major axes of the sources with assumed elliptical Gaussian shapes are generally well correlated between the four image reconstruction routines and vary between the RHESSI resolution limit of approximately 2" up to approximately 20" with most below 10". The FWHM of the minor axes are generally at or just above the RHESSI limit and hence should be considered as unresolved in most cases. The orientation angles of the elliptical sources are also well correlated. These results suggest that the elongated sources are generally aligned along a flare ribbon with the minor axis perpendicular to the ribbon. This is verified for the one flare in our list with coincident Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE) images. There is evidence for significant extra flux in many of the flares in addition to the two identified compact sources, thus rendering the VFF assumption of just two Gaussians inadequate. A more realistic approximation in many cases would be of two line sources with unresolved widths. Recommendations are given for optimizing the RHESSI imaging reconstruction process to ensure that the finest possible details of the source morphology become evident and that reliable estimates can be made of the source dimensions.

Description: No abstract available

Description: This paper reviews measurements of the plasma properties in coronal holes and how these measurements are used to reveal details about the physical processes that heat the solar corona and accelerate the solar wind. Evidence is presented for both heating and acceleration of the solar wind by open flux tubes energized by footpoint-driven wave-like fluctuations, and for intermittent energy deposition from closed loops into the open-field regions. Special emphasis is given to spectroscopic and coronagraphic measurements that allow the highly dynamic nonequilibrium evolution of the plasma to be followed as the asymptotic conditions in interplanetary space are established in the extended corona. For example, the importance of kinetic plasma physics and turbulence in coronal holes has been affirmed by surprising measurements from the UVCS instrument on SOHO that heavy ions are heated to hundreds of times the temperatures of protons and electrons. These observations point to specific kinds of collisionless Alfven wave damping (i.e., ion cyclotron resonance). Despite our incomplete knowledge of the complex multi-scale plasma physics, much progress has been made toward the goal of understanding the physical processes ultimately responsible for producing the observed properties of coronal holes.

Description: JSC-1A lunar simulant has been applied to AZ93 and AgFEP thermal control surfaces on aluminum substrates in a simulated lunar environment. The temperature of these surfaces was monitored as they were heated with a solar simulator using varying angles of incidence and cooled in a 30 K coldbox. Thermal modeling was used to determine the solar absorptivity (a) and infrared emissivity (e) of the thermal control surfaces in both their clean and dusted states. It was found that even a submonolayer of dust can significantly raise the a of either type of surface. A full monolayer can increase the a/e ratio by a factor of 3-4 over a clean surface. Little angular dependence of the a of pristine thermal control surfaces for both AZ93 and AgFEP was observed, at least until 300 from the surface. The dusted surfaces showed the most angular dependence of a when the incidence angle was in the range of 25 degrees to 35 degrees. Samples with a full monolayer, like those with no dust, showed little angular dependence in a. The e of the dusted thermal control surfaces was within the spread of clean surfaces, with the exception of high dust coverage, where a small increase was observed at shallow angles.

Description: Heliophysics is a discipline that investigates the science at work from the interface of Earth and space, to the core of the Sun, and to the outer edge of our solar system. This solar-interplanetary-planetary system is vast and inherently coupled on many spatial, temporal and energy scales. The Sun's explosive energy output creates complicated field and plasma structures that when coupled without terrestrial magnetized space, generates an extraordinary complex environment that has practical implications for humanity as we are becoming increasingly dependent on space-based assets. The immense volume of our cosmic neighborhood is the domain of heliophysics. Understanding this domain and the dominant mechanisms that control the transfer of mass and energy requires a system approach that addresses all aspects and regions of the system. The 2009 NASA Heliophysics Roadmap presents a science-focused strategic approach to advance the goal of heliophysics: why does the Sun vary; how do the Earth and heliosphere respond; and what are the impacts on humanity? This talk will present the top 6 prioritized science targets to understand the coupled heliophysics system as presented in the 2009 NASA Heliophysics Roadmap. An exposition of each science target and how it addresses outstanding questions in heliophysics will be discussed.

Description: In late 2008, 12-month moving averages of sunspot number, number of spotless days, number of groups, area of sunspots, and area per group were reflective of sunspot cycle minimum conditions for cycle 24, these values being of or near record value. The first spotless day occurred in January 2004 and the first new-cycle, high-latitude spot was reported in January 2008, although old-cycle, low-latitude spots have continued to be seen through April 2009, yielding an overlap of old and new cycle spots of at least 16 mo. New-cycle spots first became dominant over old-cycle spots in September 2008. The minimum value of the weighted mean latitude of sunspots occurred in May 2007, measuring 6.6 deg, and the minimum value of the highest-latitude spot followed in June 2007, measuring 11.7 deg. A cycle length of at least 150 mo is inferred for cycle 23, making it the longest cycle of the modern era. Based on both the maximum-minimum and amplitude-period relationships, cycle 24 is expected to be only of average to below-average size, peaking probably in late 2012 to early 2013, unless it proves to be a statistical outlier.

Description: Acceleration and transport of high-energy particles and fluid dynamics of atmospheric plasma are interrelated aspects of solar flares, but for convenience and simplicity they were artificially separated in the past. We present here self consistently combined Fokker-Planck modeling of particles and hydrodynamic simulation of flare plasma. Energetic electrons are modeled with the Stanford unified code of acceleration, transport, and radiation, while plasma is modeled with the Naval Research Laboratory flux tube code. We calculated the collisional heating rate directly from the particle transport code, which is more accurate than those in previous studies based on approximate analytical solutions. We repeated the simulation of Mariska et al. with an injection of power law, downward-beamed electrons using the new heating rate. For this case, a -10% difference was found from their old result. We also used a more realistic spectrum of injected electrons provided by the stochastic acceleration model, which has a smooth transition from a quasi-thermal background at low energies to a non thermal tail at high energies. The inclusion of low-energy electrons results in relatively more heating in the corona (versus chromosphere) and thus a larger downward heat conduction flux. The interplay of electron heating, conduction, and radiative loss leads to stronger chromospheric evaporation than obtained in previous studies, which had a deficit in low-energy electrons due to an arbitrarily assumed low-energy cutoff. The energy and spatial distributions of energetic electrons and bremsstrahlung photons bear signatures of the changing density distribution caused by chromospheric evaporation. In particular, the density jump at the evaporation front gives rise to enhanced emission, which, in principle, can be imaged by X-ray telescopes. This model can be applied to investigate a variety of high-energy processes in solar, space, and astrophysical plasmas.

Description: Independent and automated validation is a vital step in the progression of models from the research community into operational forecasting use. In this paper we describe a program in development at the CCMC to provide just such a comprehensive validation for models of the ambient solar wind in the inner heliosphere. We have built upon previous efforts published in the community, sharpened their definitions, and completed a baseline study. We also provide first results from this program of the comparative performance of the MHD models available at the CCMC against that of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. An important goal of this effort is to provide a consistent validation to all available models. Clearly exposing the relative strengths and weaknesses of the different models will enable forecasters to craft more reliable ensemble forecasting strategies. Models of the ambient solar wind are developing rapidly as a result of improvements in data supply, numerical techniques, and computing resources. It is anticipated that in the next five to ten years, the MHD based models will supplant semi-empirical potential based models such as the WSA model, as the best available forecast models. We anticipate that this validation effort will track this evolution and so assist policy makers in gauging the value of past and future investment in modeling support.

Description: Nonerupting prominences are not dull, static objects. Rather, they are composed of fine-scale blobs and threads that are highly dynamic, often appearing to travel in opposite directions on adjacent tracks (denoted counterstreaming). Because the plasma is largely constrained to travel along the magnetic field, these cool, dense features can serve as tracers of the prominence magnetic structure, a valuable resource in view of the long-standing difficulty of observing the coronal field. Conversely, greater understanding of the fundamental magnetic geometry of filament channels can provide important constraints on the physical processes governing the accumulation, support, motion, and eruption of the cool plasma. Despite over a century of detailed observations, large gaps remain in our knowledge of filament channel/plasma formation and evolution. Resolving these issues will shed light on the physics of coronal heating, helicity transport throughout the solar cycle, and the origins of eruptive activity on the Sun. I will discuss the leading models for the magnetic and plasma structure, and outline how new observations and theory /modeling could solve long-standing uncertainties regarding this majestic solar phenomenon.

Description: We present a study of kinetic properties of the strahl electron velocity distribution functions (VDF's) in the solar wind. These are used to investigate the pitch-angle scattering and stability of the population to interactions with electromagnetic (whistler) fluctuations. The study is based on high time resolution data from the Cluster/PEACE electron spectrometer. Our study focuses on the mechanisms that control and regulate the pitch-angle and stability of strahl electrons in the solar wind; mechanisms that are not yet well understood. Various parameters are investigated such as the strahl-electron density, temperature anisotropy, and electron heat-flux. The goal is to check whether the strahl electrons are constrained by some instability (e.g., the whistler instability), or are maintained by other types of processes. The electron heat-flux and temperature anisotropy are determined by modeling the 3D-VDFs to a spectral spherical harmonic model from which the moments are obtained directly from the spectral coefficients.

Description: Two whole-active-region magnetic quantities that can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram are (sup L) WL(sub SG), a gauge of the total free energy in an active region's magnetic field, and sup L(sub theta), a measure of the active region's total magnetic flux. From these two quantities measured from 1865 SOHO/MDI magnetograms that tracked 44 sunspot active regions across the 0.5 R(sub Sun) central disk, together with each active region's observed production of CMEs, X flares, and M flares, Falconer et al (2009, ApJ, submitted) found that (1) active regions have a maximum attainable free magnetic energy that increases with the magnetic size (sup L) (sub theta) of the active region, (2) in (Log (sup L)WL(sub SG), Log(sup L) theta) space, CME/flare-productive active regions are concentrated in a straight-line main sequence along which the free magnetic energy is near its upper limit, and (3) X and M flares are restricted to large active regions. Here, from (a) these results, (b) the observation that even the greatest X flares produce at most only subtle changes in active region magnetograms, and (c) measurements from MSFC vector magnetograms and from MDI line-of-sight magnetograms showing that practically all sunspot active regions have nearly the same area-averaged magnetic field strength: 〈B〉 =- theta/A approximately equal to 300 G, where theta is the active region's total photospheric flux of field stronger than 100 G and A is the area of that flux, we infer that (1) the maximum allowed ratio of an active region's free magnetic energy to its potential-field energy is ~1, and (2) any one CME/flare eruption releases no more than a small fraction (less than ~10%) of the active region's free magnetic energy. This work was funded by NASA's Heliophysics Division and NSF's Division of Atmospheric Sciences.

Description: Solar spicules appear as narrow jets emanating from the chromosphere and extending into the corona. They have been observed for over a hundred years, mainly in chromospheric spectral lines such as H-alpha. Because they are at the limit of visibility of ground-based instruments, their nature has long been a puzzle (Beckers 1968, 1972; Sterling 2000). In recent years however, vast progress has been made in understanding them both theoretically and observationally, as spicule studies have undergone a revolution because of the superior resolution and time cadence of ground-based and space-based instruments (e.g., De~Pontieu et al. 2004). Even more rapid progress is currently underway, due to the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) instrument on the Hinode spacecraft (e.g., De Pontieu et al. 2007a, 2007b). Here we present observations of spicules from Hinode SOT, as seen near the limb with the Ca II filtergraph.

Description: The role that the cleft/cusp has in ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling makes it a dynamic and important region. It is directly exposed to the solar wind, making it possible for the entry of electromagnetic energy and precipitating electrons and ions from dayside reconnection and other dayside events. It is also a significant source of ionospheric plasma, contributing largely to the mass loading of the magnetosphere with large fluxes of outflowing ions. Crossing the cusp/cleft near 5100 km, the Polar instruments observe the common correlation of downward Poynting flux, ion energization, soft electron precipitation, broadband extremely low-frequency (BB-ELF) emissions, and density depletions. The dominant power in the BB-ELF emissions is now identified to be from spatially broad, low frequency Alfv nic structures. For a cusp crossing, we determine using the Electric Field Investigation (EFI), that the electric and magnetic field fluctuations are Alfv nic and the electric field gradients satisfy the inequality for stochastic acceleration. With all the Polar 1996 horizontal crossings of the cusp, we determine the O+ heating rate using the Thermal Ion Dynamics Experiment (TIDE) and Plasma Wave Investigation (PWI). We then compare this heating rate to other heating rates assuming the electric field gradient criteria exceeds the limit for stochastic acceleration for the remaining crossings. The comparison suggests that a stochastic acceleration mechanism is operational and the heating is controlled by the transverse spatial scale of the Alfvenic waves.

Description: Probabilistic Models of Solar Particle Events (SPEs) are used in space mission design studies to describe the radiation environment that can be expected at a specified confidence level. The task of the designer is then to choose a design that will operate in the model radiation environment. Probabilistic models have already been developed for solar proton events that describe the peak flux, event-integrated fluence and missionintegrated fluence. In addition a probabilistic model has been developed that describes the mission-integrated fluence for the Z〉2 elemental spectra. This talk will focus on completing this suite of models by developing models for peak flux and event-integrated fluence elemental spectra for the Z〉2 element

Description: Mars atmospheric processes are very dependent not only on the absolute level of the solar irradiance but also the changes in solar irradiance. Correlated with many of these irradiance changes, especially during solar flares, are large particle events called coronal mass ejections that themselves significantly drive processes in the Martian atmosphere. The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a consensus solar cycle activity prediction for the upcoming solar cycle 24 maximum, and this maximum period of solar activity will be during the prime MAVEN science mission. This 'consensus' prediction calls for lower activity than the previous solar cycle maximum that occurred during the years 2001-2002, but looking at the wide spread of peer-reviewed predictions there is little faith that can be taken in any one prediction. This drives the importance of real-time measurements from the LPW/EUV diodes and the measurement and modeling results that will be improved upon using results from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO).

Description: From the SOHO mission s data base of MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning solar cycle 23, we have obtained a set of ~40,000 magnetograms of ~1,300 active regions, tracking each active region across the 30 degree central solar disk. Each active region magnetogram is cropped from the full-disk magnetogram by an automated code. The cadence is 96 minutes. From each active-region magnetogram, we have measured two whole-active-region magnetic quantities: (1) the magnetic size of the active region (the active region s total magnetic flux), and (2) a gauge of the active region s free magnetic energy (part of the free energy is released in the production of a flare and/or CME eruption). From NOAA Flare/CME catalogs, we have obtained the event (Flare/CME/SEP event) production history of each active region. Using all these data, we find that for each type of eruptive event, an active region s expected rate of event production increases as a power law of our gauge of active-region free magnetic energy. We have also found that, among active regions having nearly the same free energy, the rate of the CME production is less when there are many other active regions on the disk than when there are few or none, but there is no significant discernible suppression of the rate of flare production. This indicates that the presence of other active regions somehow tends to inhibit an active region s flare-producing magnetic explosions from becoming CMEs, contrary to the expectation from the breakout model for the production of CMEs.

Description: The Whole Heliospheric Interval (WHI) campaigns began with a set of coordinated observations over Carrington Rotation (CR) 2068, which was from March~20 to April~16, 2008. An ultimate objective of WHI to understand the 3-D nature of the heliosphere. Activity on the Sun is the engine that drives the dynamics of the heliosphere, and therefore delineation of the characteristics of the Sun's atmosphere and its output over the period of study is vital to the success of WHI\@. Here we discuss the origins of solar structures that can lead to heliospheric effects, with an emphasis on observations during the CR~2068 WHI interval. These structures include both outflows from open-field regions, and transients originating from closed-field regions. Our focus will be mainly on the latter, and we will specifically consider the coronal source regions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and other transients that escape out into the heliosphere, for example in the form of slow expansions or as narrow jets. Over the CR~2068 period we have identified about 30 such transients, with about 20\% of them being moderately to very prominent. We will consider these feature s source regions by examining low-coronal data, along with solar surface magnetograms that provide the magnetic setting of the eruptions. Through intercomparisons of these data, we infer the coronal setup for different eruptions, and the implications for models that attempt to describe eruption-onset mechanisms.

Description: Wave phenomena, ranging from freely propagating electromagnetic radiation (e.g., solar radio bursts, AKR) to plasma wave modes trapped in various plasma regimes (e.g., whistlers, Langmuir and ULF waves) and atmospheric gravity waves, are ubiquitous in the heliosphere. Because waves can propagate, wave data obtained at a given observing location may pertain to wave oscillations generated locally or from afar. While wave data analysis requires knowledge of wave characteristics specific to different wave modes, the search for appropriate data for heliophysics wave studies also requires knowledge of wave phenomena. In addition to deciding whether the interested wave activity is electrostatic (i.e., locally trapped) or electromagnetic (with propagation over distances), considerations must be given to the dependence of the wave activity on observer's location or viewing geometry, propagating frequency range and whether the wave data were acquired by passive or active observations. Occurances of natural wave emissions i the magnetosphere (e.g, auroral kilometric radiation) are often dependent also on the state (e.e., context) of the magnetosphere that varies with the changing solar wind, IMF and geomagnetic conditions. Fung and Shao [2008] showed recently that magnetospheric state can be specified by a set of suitably time-shifted solar wind, IMF and the multi-scale geomagnetic response parameters. These parameters form a magnetospheric state vector that provides the basis for searching magnetospheric wave data by their context conditions. Using the IMAGE Radio Plasma Imager (RPI) data and the NASA Magnetospheric State Query System (MSOS) [Fung, 2004], this presentation demonstrates the VWO context data search capability under development and solicits feedback from the Heliophysics research community for improvements.

Description: We have developed a magnetohydrodynamic model that describes the global axisymmetric steady-state structure of the solar wind near solar minimum with account for transport of small-scale turbulence associated heating. The Reynolds-averaged mass, momentum, induction, and energy equations for the large-scale solar wind flow are solved simultaneously with the turbulence transport equations in the region from 0.3 to 100 AU. The large-scale equations include subgrid-scale terms due to turbulence and the turbulence (small-scale) equations describe the effects of transport and (phenomenologically) dissipation of the MHD turbulence based on a few statistical parameters (turbulence energy, normalized cross-helicity, and correlation scale). The coupled set of equations is integrated numerically for a source dipole field on the Sun by a time-relaxation method in the corotating frame of reference. We present results on the plasma, magnetic field, and turbulence distributions throughout the heliosphere and on the role of the turbulence in the large-scale structure and temperature distribution in the solar wind.

Description: An outstanding problem of solar and heliospheric physics is the transport of solar energetic particles. The more energetic particles arriving early in the event can be used to probe the transport processes. The arrival direction distribution of these particles carries information about scattering during their propagation to Earth that can be used to test models of interplanetary transport. Also, of considerable importance to crewed space missions is the level of ionizing radiation in the interplanetary medium, and the dose that the crew experiences during an intense solar particle event, as well as the risk to space systems. A recent study concludes that 90% of the absorbed dose results from particles in the energy range 20-550 MeV. We will describe a new compact instrument concept, SEPS, that can cover the energy range from 50-600 MeV with a single compact detector. This energy range has been difficult to cover. There are only limited data, generally available only in broad energy bins, from a few past and present instruments outside Earth s magnetosphere. The SEPS concept can provide improved measurements for this energy range and its simple light-weight design could be easily accommodated on future missions.

Description: Probabilistic Models of Solar Particle Events (SPEs) are used in space mission design studies to provide a description of the worst-case radiation environment that the mission must be designed to tolerate.The models determine the worst-case environment using a description of the mission and a user-specified confidence level that the provided environment will not be exceeded. This poster will focus on completing the existing suite of models by developing models for peak flux and event-integrated fluence elemental spectra for the Z〉2 elements. It will also discuss methods to take into account uncertainties in the data base and the uncertainties resulting from the limited number of solar particle events in the database. These new probabilistic models are based on an extensive survey of SPE measurements of peak and event-integrated elemental differential energy spectra. Attempts are made to fit the measured spectra with eight different published models. The model giving the best fit to each spectrum is chosen and used to represent that spectrum for any energy in the energy range covered by the measurements. The set of all such spectral representations for each element is then used to determine the worst case spectrum as a function of confidence level. The spectral representation that best fits these worst case spectra is found and its dependence on confidence level is parameterized. This procedure creates probabilistic models for the peak and event-integrated spectra.

Description: UVCS observed Doppler-shifted material of a partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) on 2001 December 13. The observed ratio of [O VJ/O V] is a reliable density diagnostic important for assessing the state of the plasma. Earlier UVCS observations of CMEs found evidence that the ejected plasma is heated long after the eruption. This paper investigated the heating rates, which represent a significant fraction of the CME energy budget. The parameterized heating and radiative and adiabatic cooling have been used to evaluate the temperature evolution of the CME material with a time-dependent ionization state model. Continuous heating is required to match the UVCS observations. To match the O VI bright knots, a higher heating rate is required such that the heating energy is greater than the kinetic energy.

Description: This paper presents analyses of measured proton and electron temperatures in the high-speed solar wind that are used to calculate the separate rates of heat deposition for protons and electrons. It was found that the protons receive about 60% of the total plasma heating in the inner heliosphere, and that this fraction increases to approximately 80% by the orbit of Jupiter. The empirically derived partitioning of heat between protons and electrons is in rough agreement with theoretical predictions from a model of linear Vlasov wave damping. For a modeled power spectrum consisting only of Alfvenic fluctuations, the best agreement was found for a distribution of wavenumber vectors that evolves toward isotropy as distance increases.

Description: Fourteen-year time series of mesospheric and upper stratospheric temperatures from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) are analyzed and reported. The data have been binned according to ten-degree wide latitude zones from 40S to 40N and at 10 altitudes from 43 to 80 km-a total of 90 separate time series. Multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis techniques have been applied to those time series. This study focuses on resolving their 11-yr solar cycle (or SC-like) responses and their linear trend terms. Findings for T(z) from HALOE are compared directly with published results from ground-based Rayleigh lidar and rocketsonde measurements. SC-like responses from HALOE compare well with those from lidar station data at low latitudes. The cooling trends from HALOE also agree reasonably well with those from the lidar data for the concurrent decade. Cooling trends of the lower mesosphere from HALOE are not as large as those from rocketsondes and from lidar station time series of the previous two decades, presumably because the changes in the upper stratospheric ozone were near zero during the HALOE time period and did not affect those trends.

Description: We report the discovery of energetic neutral hydrogen atoms emitted during the X9 solar event of December 5, 2006. Beginning ~1 hour following the onset of this E79 flare, the Low Energy Telescopes (LETs) on both the STEREO A and B spacecraft observed a sudden burst of 1.6 to 15 MeV protons beginning hours before the onset of the main solar energetic particle (SEP) event at Earth. More than 70% of these particles arrived from a longitude within 10 of the Sun, consistent with the measurement resolution. The derived emission profile at the Sun had onset and peak times remarkably similar to the GOES soft X-ray profile and continued for more than an hour. The observed arrival directions and energy spectrum argue strongly that the particle events less than 5 MeV were due to energetic neutral hydrogen atoms (ENAs). To our knowledge, this is the first reported observation of ENA emission from a solar flare/coronal mass ejection. Possible origins for the production of ENAs in a large solar event are considered. We conclude that the observed ENAs were most likely produced in the high corona and that charge-transfer reactions between accelerated protons and partially-stripped coronal ions are an important source of ENAs in solar events.

Description: Since the discovery of periodicity in the solar cycle, the historical record of sunspot number has been carefully examined, attempting to make predictions about the next cycle. Much emphasis has been on predicting the maximum amplitude and length of the next cycle. Because current space-based and suborbital instruments are designed to study active phenomena, there is considerable interest in estimating the length and depth of the current minimum. We have developed criteria for the definition of a minimum and applied it to the historical sunspot record starting in 1749. In doing so, we find that 1) the current minimum is not yet unusually long and 2) there is no obvious way of predicting when, using our definition, the current minimum may end. However, by grouping the data into 22- year cycles there is an interesting pattern of extended minima that recurs every fourth or fifth 22-year cycle. A preliminary comparison of this pattern with other records, suggests the possibility of a correlation between extended minima and lower levels of solar irradiance.

Description: This poster details a technique of bright point identification that is used to find sources in Chandra X-ray data. The algorithm, part of a program called LEXTRCT, searches for regions of a given size that are above a minimum signal to noise ratio. The algorithm allows selected pixels to be excluded from the source-finding, thus allowing exclusion of saturated pixels (from flares and/or active regions). For Chandra data the noise is determined by photon counting statistics, whereas solar telescopes typically integrate a flux. Thus the calculated signal-to-noise ratio is incorrect, but we find we can scale the number to get reasonable results. For example, Nakakubo and Hara (1998) find 297 bright points in a September 11, 1996 Yohkoh image; with judicious selection of signal-to-noise ratio, our algorithm finds 300 sources. To further assess the efficacy of the algorithm, we analyze a SOHO/EIT image (195 Angstroms) and compare results with those published in the literature (McIntosh and Gurman, 2005). Finally, we analyze three sets of data from Hinode, representing different parts of the decline to minimum of the solar cycle.

Description: We discuss recently reported observations of energetic neutral hydrogen atoms (ENAs) from an X9 solar flare/coronal mass ejection event on 5 December 2006, located at E79. The observations were made by the Low Energy Telescopes (LETs) on STEREO A and B. Prior to the arrival of the main solar energetic particle (SEP) event at Earth, both LETs observed a sudden burst of 1.6 to 15 MeV energetic neutral hydrogen atoms produced by either flare or shock-accelerated protons. RHESSI measurements of the 2.2-MeV gamma-ray line provide an estimate of the number of interacting flare-accelerated protons in this event, which leads to an improved estimate of ENA production by flare-accelerated protons. Taking into account ENA losses, we find that the observed ENAs must have been produced in the high corona at heliocentric distances 〉 or equal to 2 solar radii. Although there are no CME images from this event, it is shown that CME-shock-accelerated protons can, in principle, produce a time-history consistent with the observations.

Description: In addition to passive solar wind collector surfaces, the Genesis Discovery Mission science canister had on board an electrostatic concave mirror for concentrating the solar wind ions, known as the concentrator . The 30-mm-radius collector focal point (the target) was comprised of 4 quadrants: two of single crystal SiC, one of polycrystalline 13C diamond and one of diamond-like-carbon (DLC) on a silicon substrate. [DLC-on-silicon is also sometimes referenced as Diamond-on-silicon, DOS.] Three of target quadrants survived the hard landing intact, but the DLC-on-silicon quadrant fractured into numerous pieces (Fig. 1). This abstract reports the status of identifying the DLC target fragments and reconstructing their original orientation.

Description: The degradation of the LM193 dual voltage comparator has been studied with different types of TID dose rates. These include several different constant dose rates and a variable dose rate that simulates the behavior of a solar flare. The varying dose rate of a solar flare is the type of real total dose exposure that a space mission might see in lunar or Martian orbit. A comparison of these types of dose rates is made to explore how well the constant dose rates used for typical part testing predicts the performance during a simulated space-like mission.

Description: The physical modeling of active regions (ARs) and of the global coronal is receiving increasing interest lately. Recent attempts to model ARs using static equilibrium models were quite successful in reproducing AR images of hot soft X-ray (SXR) loops. They however failed to predict the bright EUV warm loops permeating ARs: the synthetic images were dominated by intense footpoint emission. We demonstrate that this failure is due to the very weak dependence of loop temperature on loop length which cannot simultaneously account for both hot and warm loops in the same AR. We then consider time-dependent AR models based on nanoflare heating. We demonstrate that such models can simultaneously reproduce EUV and SXR loops in ARs. Moreover, they predict radial intensity variations consistent with the localized core and extended emissions in SXR and EUV AR observations respectively. We finally show how the AR morphology can be used as a gauge of the properties (duration, energy, spatial dependence, repetition time) of the impulsive heating.

Description: We propose a model for the jetting activity that is commonly observed in the Sun's corona, especially in the open-field regions of polar coronal holes. Magnetic reconnection is the process driving the jets and a relevant magnetic configuration is the well-known null point and fan separatrix topology. The primary challenge in explaining the observations is that reconnection must occur in a short-duration energetic burst rather than quasi-continuously as is implied by the observations of long-lived structures in coronal holes, such as polar plumes, for example. The key idea underlying our model for jets is that reconnection is forbidden for an axisymmetric null-point topology. Consequently, by imposing a twisting motion that maintains the axisymmetry, magnetic stress can be built up to large levels until an ideal instability breaks the symmetry and leads to an explosive release of energy via reconnection. Using 3D MHD simulations we demonstrate that this mechanism does produce jets with high speed and mass, driven by nonlinear Alfven waves. We discuss the implications of our results for observations of the solar corona.

Description: We report on the first stereoscopic observations of polar coronal jets made by the EUVI/SECCHI imagers on board the twin STEREO spacecraft. The significantly separated viewpoints (approximately 11 degrees ) allowed us to infer the 3D dynamics and morphology of a well-defined EUV coronal jet for the first time. Triangulations of the jet's location in simultaneous image pairs led to the true 3D position and thereby its kinematics. Initially the jet ascends slowly at approximately equal to 10-20 kilometers per second and then, after an apparent 'jump' takes place, it accelerates impulsively to velocities exceeding 300 kilometers per second with accelerations exceeding the solar gravity. Helical structure is the most important geometrical feature of the jet which shows evidence of untwisting. The jet structure appears strikingly different from each of the two STEREO viewpoints: face-on in the one viewpoint and edge-on in the other. This provides conclusive evidence that the observed helical structure is real and is not resulting from possible projection effects of single viewpoint observations. The clear demonstration of twisted structure in polar jets compares favorably with synthetic images from a recent MHD simulation of jets invoking magnetic untwisting as their driving mechanism. Therefore, the latter can be considered as a viable mechanism for the initiation of polar jets.

Description: Preliminary results from an XMM-Newton campaign to study solar wind charge exchange (SWCX) emission from the heliospheric focusing cone of interstellar helium are presented. The detections of enhanced O VII and O VIII emission from the cone are at the 2(sigma) and 4(sigma) levels. The solar wind charge exchange (SWCX) emission in the heliosphere not associated with distinct objects (e.g., comets and planets including exospheric material in and near Earth s magnetosheath) is proportional to the flux of the solar wind and the space density of neutral material. The neutral material originates in the interstellar medium (ISM) and passes through the solar system due to the relative motion of the Sun and the ISM. The flow of the neutral material through the solar system is strongly perturbed by the Sun both by gravity and by radiation pressure. Because of the relative radiative scattering cross sections and the effect of solar gravitation the density of interstellar hydrogen near the Sun is reduced while interstellar helium is gravitationally focused. This creates a helium focusing cone downstream of the Sun [e.g., 1, and references therein].

Description: We are developing a time stationary self-consistent 2D MHD model of the solar corona and solar wind as suggested by Sittler et al. (2003). Sittler & Guhathakurta (1999) developed a semiempirical steady state model (SG model) of the solar wind in a multipole 3-streamer structure, with the model constrained by Skylab observations. Guhathakurta et al. (2006) presented a more recent version of their initial work. Sittler et al. (2003) modified the SG model by investigating time dependent MHD, ad hoc heating term with heat conduction and empirical heating solutions. Next step of development of 2D MHD models was performed by Sittler & Ofman (2006). They derived effective temperature and effective heat flux from the data-driven SG model and fit smooth analytical functions to be used in MHD calculations. Improvements of the Sittler & Ofman (2006) results now show a convergence of the 3-streamer topology into a single equatorial streamer at altitudes 〉 2 R(sub S). This is a new result and shows we are now able to reproduce observations of an equatorially confined streamer belt. In order to allow our solutions to be applied to more general applications, we extend that model by using magnetogram data and PFSS model as a boundary condition. Initial results were presented by Selwa et al. (2008). We choose solar minimum magnetogram data since during solar maximum the boundary conditions are more complex and the coronal magnetic field may not be described correctly by PFSS model. As the first step we studied the simplest 2D MHD case with variable heat conduction, and with empirical heat input combined with empirical momentum addition for the fast solar wind. We use realistic magnetic field data based on NSO/GONG data, and plan to extend the study to 3D. This study represents the first attempt of fully self-consistent realistic model based on real data and including semi-empirical heat flux and semi-empirical effective pressure terms.

Description: Currently, two nearly identical MODIS instruments are operating in space: one on the Terra spacecraft launched in December 1999 and another on the Aqua spacecraft launched in May 2002. MODIS has 36 spectral bands with wavelengths covering from visible (VIS) to long-wave infrared (LWIR). Since launch, MODIS observations and data products have contributed significantly to studies of changes in the Earth system of land, oceans, and atmosphere. To maintain its on-orbit calibration and data product quality, MODIS was built with a comprehensive set of on-board calibrators, consisting of a solar diffuser (SD) and a solar diffuser stability monitor (SDSM) for the reflective solar bands (RSB) and an on-board blackbody (BB) for the thermal emissive bands (TEB). Both instruments have demonstrated good performance. The primary Level 1 B (LIB) data products are top of the atmosphere (TOA) reflectance for RSB and radiance for TEB This paper provides an overview of MODIS calibration methodologies, activities, lifetime on-orbit performance and challenging issues for each MODIS, the impact on LIB product quality, and lessons learned for future sensors such as the NPOESS VIIRS.

Description: Although first recognized in 1971, the quasi-continuous record since 1979 of the appearance of coronal mass ejections (CMEs-perhaps more appropriately called coronal magnetic ejections) has resulted in a stable understanding of their properties, at least from a statistical viewpoint. These eruptions occur every few days during solar activity minimum and many times per day during maximum. They are believed to play an important role throughout the heliosphere in such diverse events as removing helicity from the corona; modulating the energetic particle environment in the inner heliosphere; causing severe geomagnetic storms at Earth and other magnetic bodies throughout the solar system; and controlling the galactic cosmic ray flux. It is therefore understandable that researchers have studied both individual events and the ensemble of CMEs observed over several solar cycles. We will present an overview of these statistics, some new recent observations, and a personal perspective on potential paths of future research.

Description: The ubiquitous presence of dust in the lunar environment with its high adhesive characteristics has been recognized to be a major safety issue that must be addressed in view of its hazardous effects on robotic and human exploration of the Moon. The reported observations of a horizon glow and streamers at the lunar terminator during the Apollo missions are attributed to the sunlight scattered by the levitated lunar dust. The lunar surface and the dust grains are predominantly charged positively by the incident UV solar radiation on the dayside and negatively by the solar wind electrons on the night-side. The charged dust grains are levitated and transported over long distances by the established electric fields. A quantitative understanding of the lunar dust phenomena requires development of global dust distribution models, based on an accurate knowledge of lunar dust charging properties. Currently available data of lunar dust charging is based on bulk materials, although it is well recognized that measurements on individual dust grains are expected to be substantially different from the bulk measurements. In this paper we present laboratory measurements of charging properties of Apollo 11 & 17 dust grains by UV photoelectric emissions and by electron impact. These measurements indicate substantial differences of both qualitative and quantitative nature between dust charging properties of individual micron/submicron sized dust grains and of bulk materials. In addition, there are no viable theoretical models available as yet for calculation of dust charging properties of individual dust grains for both photoelectric emissions and electron impact. It is thus of paramount importance to conduct comprehensive measurements for charging properties of individual dust grains in order to develop realistic models of dust processes in the lunar atmosphere, and address the hazardous issues of dust on lunar robotic and human missions.

Description: To analyze the non-steady magnetic reconnection during quasi-steady solar wind driving we employed high resolution global MHD model BATSRUS with non-MHD corrections in diffusion regions around the reconnection sites. To clarify the role of small-scale non-MHD effects on the global magnetospheric dynamic we performed simulations with different models of dissipation. We found that magnetopause surface is not in steady state even during extended periods of steady solar wind conditions. The so-called tilted reconnection lines become unstable due to formation of pressure bubbles, strong core field flux tubes, vortices, and traveling magnetic field cavities. Non-steady dayside reconnection results in formation of flux tubes with bended axis magnetically connecting magnetic field cavities generated at flanks and strong core segments formed near the subsolar region. We found that the rate of magnetic flux loading to the tail lobes is not very sensitive to the dissipation mechanism and details of the dayside reconnection. On the other hand the magnetotail reconnection rate, the speed of the reconnection site retreat and the global magnetotail dynamics strongly depend on the model of dissipation. THEMIS and Cluster observations are consistent with signatures predicted by simulations.

Description: The area-average strength of the open magnetic field in the polar coronal holes can be estimated from the radial component of the magnetic field measured by Ulysses in the solar wind, the fraction of the solar sphere covered by the polar coronal holes, and the fraction of the heliosphere filled by the fast solar wind from the polar coronal holes. For the present minimum phase of the solar cycle, the estimated strength is approximately 10 G. Using this strength for the ambient open field in the standard reconnection model for jets in coronal holes, we obtain for any given jet-front speed a lower bound on the initial temperature of the expanding jet-front plasma, and an upper bound on the ambient plasma density at the reconnection site. These two bounds indicate the following. For jet-front speeds of approximately 1000 km/s, (1) the reconnection site has to be in the low corona or upper transition region (n(e) is less than 10(exp 9) cm(exp -3)), not in the lower transition region or chromosphere, (2) the jet-front plasma is initially heated to T greater than approximately 10(exp 7) K, and (3) hence a compact X-ray flare is produced at the base of the jet. For jet-front speeds less than approximately 100 km/s, (1) the jet can be produced by reconnection in the lower transition region (approximately 10(exp 9) less than n(e) less than approximately 10(exp 10) cm(exp-3)) or upper chromosphere (approximately 10(exp 10) less than n(e) less than approximately 10(exp 12) cm-3), (2) the initial temperature of the jet-front plasma can be less than 10(exp 6) K, and (3) hence some EUV and H(alpha) jet-type macrospicules may be produced with no detectable X-ray emission.

Description: This presentation is the first in a series which will provide independent validation of community models of the outer corona and inner heliosphere. In this work we establish a set of measures to be used in validating this group of models. We use these procedures to generate a comprehensive set of results from the Wang- Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model which will be used as a baseline, or reference, against which to compare all other models. We also run a test of the validation procedures by applying them to a small set of results produced by the ENLIL Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model. In future presentations we will validate other models currently hosted by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center(CCMC), including a comprehensive validation of the ENLIL model. The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model is widely used to model the Solar wind, and is used by a number of agencies to predict Solar wind conditions at Earth as much as four days into the future. Because it is so important to both the research and space weather forecasting communities, it is essential that its performance be measured systematically, and independently. In this paper we offer just such an independent and systematic validation. We report skill scores for the model's predictions of wind speed and IMF polarity for a large set of Carrington rotations. The model was run in all its routinely used configurations. It ingests line of sight magnetograms. For this study we generated model results for monthly magnetograms from the National Solar Observatory (SOLIS), Mount Wilson Observatory and the GONG network, spanning the Carrington rotation range from 1650 to 2068. We compare the influence of the different magnetogram sources, performance at quiet and active times, and estimate the effect of different empirical wind speed tunings. We also consider the ability of the WSA model to identify sharp transitions in wind speed from slow to fast wind. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare future versions of the model

Description: Predictions of upcoming solar cycles are often related to the nature and dynamics of the Sun's polar magnetic field and its influence on the corona. For the past 30 years we have a more-or-less continuous record of the Sun's white-light corona from groundbased and spacebased coronagraphs. Over that interval, the large scale features of the corona have varied in what we now consider a 'predictable' fashion--complex, showing multiple streamers at all latitudes during solar activity maximum; and a simple dipolar shape aligned with the rotational pole during solar minimum. Over the past three decades the white-light corona appears to be a better indicator of 'true' solar minimum than sunspot number since sunspots disappear for months (even years) at solar minimum. Since almost all predictions of the timing of the next solar maximum depend on the timing of solar minimum, the white-light corona is a potentially important observational discriminator for future predictors. In this contribution we describe recent work quantifying the large-scale appearance of the Sun's corona to correlate it with the sunspot record, especially around solar minimum. These three decades can be expanded with the HAO archive of eclipse photographs which, although sparse compared to the coronagraphic coverage, extends back to 1869. A more extensive understanding of this proxy would give researchers confidence in using the white-light corona as an indicator of solar minimum conditions.

Description: We present a study of kinetic properties of the strahl electron velocity distribution functions (VDF's) in the solar wind. These are used to investigate the pitch-angle scattering and stability of the population to interactions with electromagnetic (whistler) fluctuations. The study is based on high time resolution data from the Cluster/PEACE electron spectrometer. Our study focuses on the mechanisms that control and regulate the pitch-angle and stability of strahl electrons in the solar wind; mechanisms that are not yet well understood. Various parameters are investigated such as the electron heat-flux and temperature anisotropy. The goal is to check whether the strahl electrons are constrained by some instability (e.g., the whistler instability), or are maintained by other types of processes. The electron heat-flux and temperature anisotropy are determined by fitting the VDF's to a spectral spherical harmonic model from which the moments are derived directly from the model coefficients.

Description: Although the slow solar wind has been studied for decades with both in situ and remote sensing observations, its origin is still a matter of intense debate. In the standard quasi-steady model, the slow wind is postulated to originate near coronal hole boundaries that define topologically well-behaved separatrices between open and closed field regions. In the interchange model, on the other hand, the slow wind is postulated to originate on open flux that is dynamically diffusing throughout the seemingly closed-field corona. We argue in favor of the quasi-steady scenario and propose that the slow wind is due to two effects: First, the open-closed boundary is highly complex due to the complexity of the photospheric flux distribution. Second, this boundary is continuously driven by the transport of magnetic helicity from the closed field region into the open. The implications of this model for the structure and dynamics of the corona and slow wind are discussed, and observational tests of the mode

Description: The multi-mission data and orbit services of NASA's Space Physics Data Facility (SPDF) project offer unique capabilities supporting science of the Heliophysics Great Observatory and that are highly complementary to other services now evolving in the international heliophysics data environment. The VSPO (Virtual Space Physics Observatory) service is an active portal to a wide rage of distributed data sources. CDAWeb (Coordinated Data Analysis Web) offers plots, listings and file downloads for current data from many missions across the boundaries of missions and instrument types. CDAWeb now includes extensive new data from STEREO and THEMIS, plus new ROCSAT IPEI data, the latest data from all four TIMED instruments and high-resolution data from all DE-2 experiments. SSCWeb, Helioweb and out 3D Animated Orbit Viewer (TIPSOD) provide position data and identification of spacecraft and ground conjunctions. OMNI Web, with its new extension to 1- and 5-minute resolution, provides interplanetary parameters at the Earth's bow shock. SPDF maintains NASA's CDF (Common Data Format) standard and a range of associated tools including format translation services. These capabilities are all now available through web services based APIs, one element in SPDF's ongoing work to enable heliophysics community development of Virtual discipline Observatories (e.g. VITMO). We will demonstrate out latest data and capabilities, review the lessons we continue to learn in what science users need and value in this class of services, and discuss out current thinking to the future role and appropriate focus of the SPDF effort in the evolving and increasingly distributed heliophysics data environment.

Description: The Whole Heliosphere Interval (WHI) is an internationally coordinated observing and modeling effort to characterize the 3-dimensional interconnected solar-heliospheric-planetary system - a.k.a. the "heliophysical" system. The heart of the WHI campaign is the study of the interconnected 3-D heliophysical domain, from the interior of the Sun, to the Earth, outer planets, and into interstellar space. WHI observing campaigns began with the 3-0 solar structure from solar Carrington Rotation 2068, which ran from March 20 - April 16, 2008. Observations and models of the outer heliosphere and planetary impacts extended beyond those dates as necessary; for example, the solar wind transit time to outer planets can take months. WHI occurs during solar minimum, which optimizes our ability to characterize the 3-D heliosphere and trace the structure to the outer limits of the heliosphere. A summary of some of the key results from the WHI first workshop in August 2008 will be given.

Description: The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is the first Space Weather Mission in NASA's Living With a Star Program. SDO's main goal is to understand, driving towards a predictive capability, those solar variations that influence life on Earth and humanity's technological systems. The past decade has seen an increasing emphasis on understanding the entire Sun, from the nuclear reactions at the core to the development and loss of magnetic loops in the corona. SDO's three science investigations (HMI, AIA, and EVE) will determine how the Sun's magnetic field is generated and structured, how this stored magnetic energy is released into the heliosphere and geospace as the solar wind, energetic particles, and variations in the solar irradiance. SDO will return full-disk Dopplergrams, full-disk vector magnetograms, full-disk images at nine EIUV wavelengths, and EUV spectral irradiances, all taken at a rapid cadence. This means you can 'observe the database' to study events, but we can also move forward in producing quantitative models of what the Sun is doing today. SDO is scheduled to launch in 2008 on an Atlas V rocket from the Kennedy Space Center, Cape Canaveral, Florida. The satellite will fly in a 28 degree inclined geosynchronous orbit about the longitude of New Mexico, where a dedicated Ka-band ground station will receive the 150 Mbps data flow. How SDO data will transform the study of the Sun and its affect on Space Weather studies will be discussed.

Description: We report the results of a long (approximately 100 ks) XMM-Newton observation designed to observe solar wind charge exchange emission (SWCX) from Earth's magnetosheath. By luck, the observation took place during a period of minimal solar wind flux so the SWCX emission was also minimal. Never-the-less, there is a significant if not stunning correlation between the observed O VIII count rate and our model for magnetosheath emission. We also report on the observed O VII and O VII emission.

Description: The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) is an empirical model of the solar irradiance spectrum from 0.1 to 190 nm at 1 nm spectral resolution and on a 1-minute time cadence. The goal of FISM is to provide accurate solar spectral irradiances over the vacuum ultraviolet (VUV: 0-200 nm) range as input for ionospheric and thermospheric models. The seminar will begin with a brief overview of the FISM model, and also how the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) will contribute to improving FISM. Some current studies will then be presented that use FISM estimations of the solar VUV irradiance to quantify the contributions of the increased irradiance from flares to Earth's increased thermospheric and ionospheric densites. Initial results will also be presented from a study looking at the electron density increases in the Martian atmosphere during a solar flare. Results will also be shown quantifying the VUV contributions to the total flare energy budget for both the impulsive and gradual phases of solar flares. Lastly, an example of how FISM can be used to simplify the design of future solar VUV irradiance instruments will be discussed, using the future NOAA GOES-R Extreme Ultraviolet and X-Ray Sensors (EXIS) space weather instrument.

Description: It is often said that coronal loops are the fundamental building blocks of the magnetically-closed corona. This is certainly true, especially when one realizes that the diffuse component of the corona can be thought of as a collection of indistinguishable loops. During the Skylab era, it was believed that loops are in states of quasi static equilibrium. However, more recent observations combined with numerical models have revealed that this interpretation is not correct, at least for many loops. The concept of loops as bundles of impulsively-heated strands is very appealing and solves many of the problems faced by static models, but it too faces observational challenges. Yet another idea involves the fascinating phenomenon of thermal nonequilibrium. I will review the various attempts to model coronal loops and discuss how they agree and disagree with observations, paying particular attention to the latest results from Hinode.

Description: The poster will present an overview of the data from the March-April,2008 Whole Heliospheric Interval Campaign. These instruments will show the targets during the campaign from three points of view at a range of temperatures. Targets are expected to include coronal cavities, coronal holes, active regions and prominences.

Description: Knowledge of the energy distribution of electrons accelerated in solar flares is important for constraining possible acceleration mechanisms and for understanding the relationships between flare X-ray sources, radio sources, and particles observed in space. Solar flare hard X-rays are primarily emitted from dense, thick-target regions in the lower atmosphere, but the electrons are understood to be accelerated higher in the corona. Various processes can distort the X-ray spectrum or the energy distribution of electrons before they reach the thick-target region. After briefly reviewing the processes that affect the X-ray spectrum and the electron distribution, I will describe recent results from a study of flare spectra from RHESSI to determine the importance of these processes in inferring the energy distribution of accelerated electrons.

Description: During the past several years, studies of solar wind turbulence using data from Cluster and other spacecraft, and results from new numerical simulations, have revealed new aspects of solar wind turbulence. I will try to highlight some of that research. At the shortest length scales and highest frequencies, there is renewed interest in determining how the turbulence dissipates, e.g., whether by kinetic Alfven waves or whistler turbulence. Finding observational evidence for exponential damping of solar wind fluctuations has proven challenging. New studies using a combination of flux gate and search coil magnetometer data from Cluster have extended this search (in the spacecraft frame of reference) to more than 10 Hertz. New models and simulations are also being used to study the dissipation. A detailed study of fluctuations in the magnetosheath suggests that turbulent dissipation could be occurring at very thin current sheets as had been suggested by two-dimensional MHD simulations more than 20 years ago. Data from the four Cluster spacecraft, now at their maximum separation of 10,000 km provide new opportunities to investigate the symmetry properties, scale lengths, and the relative proportion of magnetic energy in parallel and perpendicular wave numbers of solar wind turbulence. By utilizing well-calibrated electron data, it has been possible to take advantage of the tetrahedral separation of Cluster in the solar wind near apogee to measure directly the compressibility and vorticity of the solar wind plasma.

Description: Ulysses MAG data were used to identify current sheets during sunspot minimum years of 1994-1997 and 2004-2006. The purpose of limiting the dates was to focus attention on 'quiescent current sheets' with as little influence from ICMEs as possible. SWOOPS data were then used in a superposed epoch analysis to study Helium abundance in the vicinity of the current sheet, similar to the study done by Borrini et al. (1981). That earlier study found a narrow (ca. 2 day) minimum in He/H around the current sheet that is extremely variable from one year to the next in the period 1971-1978. A similar result is found here for data at all latitudes and distances in 2004-2006. Conversely, data from 1994-1997 produce a deep minimum several times wider (ca. 10 days). The reason for this is found to be that low He/H is more closely associated with slow wind than the current sheet per se. There are thus apparently at least two sources of slow wind, one associated with very low He/H of 0-0.02 and one associated with moderate abundance of 0.03-0.05. The large variability is a consequence of the relatively small number of current sheet encounters around solar minimum and the random distribution of low He/H intervals, lasting less than 1 day to more than 7 days, throughout slow wind.

Description: One of the most challenging problems in solar physics is understanding the processes responsible for giant magnetic disruptions such as the event of July 14, 2000, which consisted of a massive filament ejection, a fast coronal mass ejection (CME), prolonged X-class flaring, and an intense particle storm. These major events are of critical importance because they drive the most destructive forms of space weather and they provide a unique opportunity to study, in revealing detail, MHD instability and nonequilibrium -- processes that are at the heart of plasma astrophysics. It is now widely accepted that CMEs/eruptive flares represent the explosive release of magnetic energy stored in the corona. Therefore, in order to understand the phenomenon, we must answer the following questions: What is the field structure responsible for the disruption and why is the energy released explosively? In this talk we address these two questions using the latest theories and numerical models for CMEs/eruptive flares.

Description: While continuing to add access to data from new missions, including Hinode and STEREO, the Virtual Solar Observatory is also being enhanced as a research tool by the addition of new features such as the unified representation of catalogs and event lists (to allow joined searches in two or more catalogs) and workable representation and manipulation of large numbers of search results (as are expected from the Solar Dynamics Observatory database). Working with our RHESSI colleagues, we have also been able to improve the performance of IDL-callable vso_search and vso_get functions, to the point that use of those routines is a practical alternative to reproducing large subsets of mission data on one's own LAN.

Description: The twin STEREO spacecrafi, launched in October 2006, are in heliocentric orbits near 4 AU with one spacecraft (Ahead) leading Earth in its orbit around the Sun and the other (Behind) trailing Earth. As viewed from the Sun, the STEREO spacecraft are continually separating from one another at about 45 degrees per year with Earth biseding the angle. At present, th@spaser=raft are a bit more than 45 degrees apart, thus they are able to each 'vie@ ground the limb's of the Sun by about 23 degrees, corresponding to about 1.75 days of solar rotation. Both spameraft contain an identical set of instruments including an extreme ultraviolet imager, two white light coronagraphs, tws all-sky imagers, a wide selection of energetic particle detectors, a magnetometer and a radio burst tracker. A snapshot of the real time data is continually broadcast to NOW-managed ground stations and this small stream of data is immediately sent to the STEREO Science Center and converted into useful space weather data within 5 minutes of ground receipt. The resulting images, particle, magnetometer and radio astronomy plots are available at ~ ~ j ~ g ~ ~ ~ i t , : gAs~ timqe~ co~n~ting ue~s ijnto~ ~ ~ ~ ~ . ~ g ~ solar cycle 24, the separation angle becomes 90 degrees in early 2009 and 180 degrees in early 201 1 as the activity heads toward maximum. By the time of solar maximum, STEREO will provide for the first time a view of the entire Sun with the mronagraphs and e*reme ultraviolet instruments. This view wilt allow us to follow the evolution of active regions continuously and also detect new active regions long before they pose a space weather threat to Earth. The in situ instruments will be able to provide about 7 days advanced notice of co-rotating structures in the solar wind. During this same intewal near solar maximum, the wide-angle imagers on STEREB will both be ;able to view EarlCP-dirsted CMEs in their plane-oPsky. When combined with Eat-lhorbiting assets available at that time, it seems solar cycle 24 will mark a great increase in our ability to understand and predict space weather.

Description: The existence of the Sun's million-degree corona is one of the oldest and most challenging problems in all space physics. It is generally accepted that the solar magnetic field is responsible for both the heating and the structure of coronal plasma, but the physical mechanisms are still not clearly understood. Gene Parker has made many seminal contributions to solving the coronal heating problem, in particular, his widely-used nano-flare model. Parker argued that in closed field regions the complex motions of the photosphere must lead to the formation of fine-scale electric currents in the corona and, consequently, to continual bursts of magnetic reconnection. We discuss the implications of these ideas for understanding the observed features of the corona. We show that the type of reconnection proposed by Parker may well account for all the well-known observations of both the closed and open field corona, and we discuss the implications of our results for upcoming NASA missions. This work was supported by the NASA HTP and TR&T programs.

Description: The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager of SDO will provide uninterrupted 4k x 4k-pixel Doppler-shift images of the Sun with approximately 40 sec cadence. These data will have a unique potential for advancing local helioseismic diagnostics of the Sun's interior structure and dynamics. They will help to understand the basic mechanisms of solar activity and develop predictive capabilities for NASA's Living with a Star program. Because of the tremendous amount of data the HMI team is developing a data analysis pipeline, which will provide maps of subsurface flows and sound-speed distributions inferred form the Doppler data by the time-distance technique. We discuss the development plan, methods, and algorithms, and present the status of the pipeline, testing results and examples of the data products.

Description: The Extreme-Ultraviolet Normal-Incidence Spectrograph (EUNIS) is a sounding rocket instrument that obtains imaged high-resolution solar spectra. It has now had two successful flights, on 2006 April 12 and 2007 November 16, providing data to support underflight calibrations for a number of orbiting solar experiments on both occasions. A regular part of each campaign is the end-to-end radiometric calibration of the rocket payload carried out at RAL in the UK, using the same facility that provided pre-flight CDS and EIS calibrations. The measurements, traceable to primary radiometric standards, can establish the absolute EUNIS response within a relative uncertainty of 10% over its full longwave bandpass of 300-370A. During each EUNIS flight, coordinated observations are made of overlapping solar locations by all participating space experiments, and identified by subsequent image co-registrations, allowing the EUNIS calibrations to be applied to these other instruments as well. The calibration transfer is straightforward for wavelengths within the EUNIS LW bandpass, and is extended to other wavelengths by means of a series of 'insensitive' line-ratios, with one line of each pair in the calibrated band and the other in the transfer band. In this way, the EUNIS-06 flight is able to update the radiometric calibrations of CDS NISl (plus 2nd order NIS2 near 2x304A), all four channels of EIT, and the three EUV channels of TRACE. The EUNIS-07 flight will further update those missions, as well as both channels of Hinode/EIT and all four channels of STEREO/SECCHI/EUVI. Future EUNIS flights have been proposed that will continue this underflight calibration service. EUNIS is supported by the NASA Heliophysics Division through its Low Cost Access to Space Program in Solar and Heliospheric Physics.