Publication Date:
2017-04-04
Description:
Tephra fallout constitutes a serious threat to communities around active volcanoes. Reliable short-term
13 forecasts represent a valuable aid for scientists and civil authorities to mitigate the effects of fallout on the
14 surrounding areas during an episode of crisis. We present a platform-independent automatic procedure with
Q1 15 the aim to daily forecast transport and deposition of volcanic particles. The procedure builds on a series of
16 programs and interfaces that automate the data flow and the execution and subsequent postprocess of fallout
17 models. Firstly, the procedure downloads regional meteorological forecasts for the area and time interval of
18 interest, filters and converts data from its native format, and runs the CALMET diagnostic model to obtain the
19 wind field and other micro-meteorological variables on a finer local-scale 3-D grid defined by the user.
20 Secondly, it assesses the distribution of mass along the eruptive column, commonly by means of the radial
21 averaged buoyant plume equations depending on the prognostic wind field and on the conditions at the vent
22 (granulometry, mass flow rate, etc). All these data serve as input for the fallout models. The initial version of
23 the procedure includes only two Eulerian models, HAZMAP and FALL3D, the latter available as serial and
24 parallel implementations. However, the procedure is designed to incorporate easily other models in a near
25 future with minor modifications on the model source code. The last step is to postprocess the outcomes of
26 models to obtain maps written in standard file formats. These maps contain plots of relevant quantities such
27 as predicted ground load, expected deposit thickness and, for the case of or 3-D models, concentration on air
28 or flight safety concentration thresholds
Description:
Published
Description:
767-777
Description:
3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
Description:
4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
Description:
JCR Journal
Description:
reserved
Keywords:
Tephra fallout
;
volcanoes
;
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
;
05. General::05.09. Miscellaneous::05.09.99. General or miscellaneous
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
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