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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk  (25)
  • Elsevier Science Limited  (9)
  • Springer  (9)
  • AGU  (3)
  • Geological Society of London  (3)
  • Nature Publishing Group
  • 2010-2014  (25)
Collection
Keywords
Publisher
Years
Year
  • 1
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    Modeling of CO2 circulation in the Colli Albani area (2010)
    IACEI | Geological Society of London
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-21
    Description: The Colli Albani is a quiescent volcano located nearby the city of Roma, characterised by the presence of an active geothermal system, periodic seismic swarms and intense diffuse degassing. Several accidents, some of which lethal, have occurred in recent years associated to episodes of more intense releases and outbursts of volcanic gases, dominantly CO2 and H2S. Gas emissions are presently the most hazardous phenomenon for the highly populated Colli Albani area, along with the potential occurrence of seismic activity. This chapter presents the numerical modeling of heat and fluid circulation applied to study the mechanisms which control the diffuse degassing at Colli Albani volcano. Multi-phase and multi-component simulations were carried out using the TOUGH2 geothermal simulator in a realistic geological context, which includes all available information on the stratigraphy and structure of the Colli Albani substrate, along with data on the total gas flux, the local geothermal gradient, the local hydrogeology, and the thermal characteristics of the rocks. The geothermal reservoir at Colli Albani is hosted by the 2-3000 m thick Mesozoic-Cenozoic carbonatic succession capped by Pliocene clays which act as aquiclude and are few hundreds to over 1000m thick, in turned covered by continental sedimentary and volcanic deposits, which host the shallow hydrogeological system. Numerical simulations evaluate the effects associated with the thickness of the carbonatic basement and its cap rock; the role of CO2 supply rate at depth; and the influence of permeable channelways through the cap rocks. Numerical simulations show that thickness of the geothermal reservoir hosted by the carbonatic basement and of its impervious cover control the vigor of the convection, the extent and depth (and hence temperature) of the lateral recharge area, and the distribution of the carbon dioxide within the system. This result suggests that the temperature distribution and diffuse degassing at surface do not simply reflect the characteristics of the heat and fluid source at depth, but also the specific structure and hydrological properties of the site where they are measured.
    Description: Submitted
    Description: 311-329
    Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Description: open
    Keywords: Colli Albani ; degassing ; modeling ; rock properties ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 2
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    Potential Field modeling of collapse-prone submarine volcanoes in the southern Tyrrhenian Sea (Italy) (2010)
    AGU
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-14
    Description: Hydrothermal alteration may weaken volcanic rocks, causing the gravitational instability of portions of active volcanoes with potentially hazardous collapses. Here we show high‐resolution multibeam, magnetic and gravity surveys of the Marsili seamount, the largest active volcano of Europe located in the southern Tyrrhenian back‐arc basin. These surveys reveal zones with exceptionally low densities and with vanishing magnetizations, due probably to the comminution of basalts during hyaloclastic submarine eruptions and to their post‐eruptive hydrothermal alteration. The location of these regions correlates with morphological data showing the occurrence of past collapses. Similar evidence has been obtained from pre existing data at Vavilov Seamount, another older volcanic system in the Tyrrhenian back‐arc basin. Here a large volume of at least 50 km3 may have collapsed in a single event from its 40 km long western flank. Given the similarities between these volcanoes, a large collapse event may also be expected at Marsili.
    Description: Published
    Description: L03305
    Description: 2.6. TTC - Laboratorio di gravimetria, magnetismo ed elettromagnetismo in aree attive
    Description: 3.4. Geomagnetismo
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Marsili Seamount ; Gravity anomalies ; Magnetic anomalies ; Tyrrhenian Sea ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.02. Gravity methods ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.04. Marine geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.04. Magnetic anomalies ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    The lake Albano: bathymetry and level changes (2010)
    Geological Society of London
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-11-16
    Description: The Lake Albano is situated in the Colli Albani volcanic district, about 20 km SE from the city centre of Rome. It is 287 m above sea level and is the deepest among the volcanic crater lakes of Italy, being presently 167 m deep. It is 3.5 km long and 2.3 km wide with an area of about 6 km2. The crater has a long history, which starts with the formation of the Albano crater ~70 ka B.P., and shows evidence of human settlements since pre-historical times. Geological evidence indicates that a catastrophic overflow of the lake occurred in 396 B.C.E. due to a rapid increase of the water level. This phenomenon persuaded the Romans to excavate an artificial outlet though the crater wall to control the lake level. The lake is thought to be hazardous for the surroundings human settlements and the city of Rome, high resolution multibeam bathymetry of the of Lake Albano was performed for the Italian Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, in order to evaluate the potential for CO2 storage and eruption from the lake. The shape of the crater floor was mapped in 2-D and 3-D. Here, we show the main submerged morphological features and a brief history of the lake level changes, which still affect this basin today.
    Description: Published
    Description: 229-244
    Description: 3A. Geofisica marina e osservazioni multiparametriche a fondo mare
    Description: open
    Keywords: Colli Albani, Albano Lake, MB Bathymetry ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 4
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    Movements of the Sciara del Fuoco (2012)
    AGU
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-01-27
    Description: The Sciara del Fuoco (SdF) landslides that occurred at the end of December 2002 prompted researchers to install geodetic networks to monitor deformations related to potential new slope failures. With this aim, an integrated multiparametric monitoring system was designed and deployed. In particular, this complex monitoring system is composed of four single systems: an electronic distance measurement network, installed immediately after the landslide events, a realtime GPS network, a ground-based interferometric linear synthetic aperture radar (GB-InSAR), and an automated topographic monitoring system (named Theodolite Robotic Observatory of Stromboli, or THEODOROS); the three last systems provided a continuous monitoring of selected points or sectors of the SdF. Data acquired from different systems have been jointly analyzed to reach a better understanding of the SdF dynamics. Displacement data obtained from the topographic systems are compared with those obtained from GB-InSAR, and the results of the comparison are analyzed and discussed. Furthermore, in this chapter, an example of a warning system that can detect slope instability precursors on the SdF based on a statistical analysis of the data collected by the THEODOROS system is reported.
    Description: Published
    Description: 183-199
    Description: 1.3. TTC - Sorveglianza geodetica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Flank instability ; Slope failure ; Terrestrial geodesy ; Ground Based InSAR ; Continuous GPS ; Landslide monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.06. Measurements and monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.07. Satellite geodesy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.09. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 5
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    Volcanic ash and SO2 in the 2008 Kasatochi eruption: Retrievals comparison from different IR satellite sensors (2011)
    AGU
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-02-03
    Description: The Kasatochi 2008 eruption was detected by several infrared satellite sensors including Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). In this work a comparison between the volcanic cloud SO2 and ash retrievals derived from these instruments has been undertaken. The SO2 retrieval is carried out by using both the 7.3 and 8.7 micron absorption features while ash retrieval exploits the 10–12 micron atmospheric window. A radiative transfer scheme is also used to correct the volcanic ash effect on the 8.7 micron SO2 signature. As test cases, three near‐contemporary images for each sensor, collected during the first days of the eruption, have been analyzed. The results show that the volcanic SO2 and ash are simultaneously present and generally collocated. The MODIS and AVHRR total ash mass loadings are in good agreement and estimated to be about 0.5 Tg, while the AIRS retrievals are slightly lower and equal to about 0.3 Tg. The AIRS and MODIS 7.3 micron SO2 mass loadings are also in good agreement and vary between 0.3 and 1.2 Tg, while the MODIS ash corrected 8.7 micron SO2 masses vary between 0.4 and 2.7 Tg. The mass increase with time confirms the continuous SO2 injection in the atmosphere after the main explosive episodes. Moreover the difference between the 7.3 and 8.7 micron retrievals suggests a vertical stratification of the volcanic cloud. The results also confirm the importance of the ash correction; the corrected 8.7 micron SO2 total masses are less than 30–40% of the uncorrected values.
    Description: Published
    Description: D00L21
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: 1.10. TTC - Telerilevamento
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Remote sensing ; ash retrieval ; SO2 retrieval ; multispectral satellite instruments ; MODIS ; AVHRR ; AIRS ; hyperspectral satellite instruments ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.07. Volcanic effects ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.08. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
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    Distal Turbidites and Tsunamigenic Landslides of Stromboli Volcano (Aeolian Islands, Italy) (2010)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: On 30 December 2002, a 25-30 × 106 m3 landslide on the NW flank of Stromboli volcano produced a tsunami that caused relevant damage to the Stromboli village and to the neighboring islands of the Aeolian archipelago. The NW flank of Stromboli has been the site of several, cubic kilometer-scale, landslides during the past 13 ka. In this paper we present sedimentological and compositional data of deep-sea cores recovered from a site located about 24 km north of the island. Our preliminary results indicate that: (i) turbidity currents were effectively generated by the large-scale failures and (ii) volcanogenic turbidity current deposits retain clues of the landslide source and slope failure dynamics. By analogy with Hawaii and the Canary islands we confirm that deep-sea sediments can be effectively used to assess the age and scale of past landslide events giving an important contribution to the tsunami hazard assessment of this region.
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: -
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Landslide ; turbidite ; tsunami ; Stromboli ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.04. Marine geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.08. Sediments: dating, processes, transport ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 7
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    Volcanic hazards of the Colli Albani (2011)
    Geological Society of London
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Although controversy exists about the age of its most recent eruption (either 36 ka or ,23 ka), Colli Albani volcano is unanimously considered to be quiescent and not exinct. During the Holocene, several lahars were generated by overflows from Albano crater lake up to the fourth century BCE, when the Romans excavated a drainage tunnel to keep the lake level below the crater rim. Such recent activity, together with the frequent occurrence of seismic swarms underneath the crater zone, the ongoing uplift of the volcanic edifice and the magmatic affinity of the emitted gas, indicate the presence of an active magma chamber. The most likely site for a new eruption is the deep crater hosted in the southern part of the Lake Albano, where the last eruptive events occurred. Any eruption would have a strong explosive character enhanced by the interaction of magma with the water of the lake and would endanger a densely inhabited area up to the outskirts of Rome. The hazard of a new overflow from Lake Albano is very low because of the present low level of the lae. There is instead a potential for CO2 release from the deep lake water following the occurrence of rollovers, which would threaten the lake shore, a site where thousands of people spend their vacations in the summer. However, the content of dissolved CO2 is presently far from saturation and no Nyos-type events will occur today. Presently, the main hazard is related to strong gas emissions (CO2, H2S and Rn) from fractured zones and gas blowouts from wells reaching shallow gas-pressurized aquifers.
    Description: Published
    Description: 279 – 297
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Colli Albani, volcanic hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 8
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    Fluorine adsorption by volcanic soils at Mt. Etna, Italy (2012)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-03
    Description: Fluorine adsorption experiments were performed on 28 samples of the first 5 cm of topsoil collected on the flanks of Mt. Etna. The soil samples were equilibrated with F-rich rainwater (3.25 mg/L) at a soil/water weight ratio of 1/25. Aliquots of the supernatant were collected after 1, 7, 72, 720 and 5640 h and analysed for F content. The soil samples could be subdivided into three groups based on their F-adsorption behaviours after 1 h and at the end of the experiment: (1) negative adsorption (F released from the soil to the solution) after 1 h and negative or moderately positive adsorption at the end, (2) from negative after 1 h to strongly positive adsorption at the end, and (3) always strong positive adsorption. The adsorption capacity of the soils was positively correlated with the soil pH, the contents of finer granulometric fractions (clay and silt) and the weathering stage (as quantified by the chemical alteration index). The most F adsorbing soils are found at the periphery of the volcano where aquifers are more vulnerable to contamination due to the shallower depth of the water table. This study further evidences the importance of the Etnean soils in protecting groundwater from an excessive magmatic F input.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1179–1188
    Description: 4.4. Scenari e mitigazione del rischio ambientale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: volcanic soils ; fluoride adsorption ; Mt. Etna ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.01. Geochemical data ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.01. Environmental risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
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    Long-time variation of soil CO2 fluxes at the summit crater of Vulcano (Italy) (2014)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Here, we report the first continuous data of geochemical parameters acquired directly from the active summit crater of Vulcano. This approach provides a means to better investigate deep geochemical processes associated with the degassing system of Vulcano Island. In particular, we report on soil CO2 fluxes from the upper part of Vulcano, a closed-conduit volcano, from September 2007 to October 2010. Large variations in the soil CO2 and plume SO2 fluxes (order of magnitude), coinciding with other discontinuous geochemical parameters (CO2 concentrations in fumarole gas) and physical parameters (increase of shallow seismic activity and fumarole temperatures) have been recorded. The results from this work suggest new prospects for strengthening geochemical monitoring of volcanic activity and for improving the constraints in the construction of a “geochemical model”, this being a necessary condition to better understand the functioning of volcanic systems.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1859-1863
    Description: 2V. Dinamiche di unrest e scenari pre-eruttivi
    Description: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente
    Description: 5V. Sorveglianza vulcanica ed emergenze
    Description: 1R. Reti di monitoraggio e Osservazioni
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Vulcano Island ; Geochemical monitoring ; CO2 flux ; CO2 fumaroles ; SO2 flux ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.07. Volcanic effects ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.01. Geochemical data
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
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    Numerical simulation of tephra transport and deposition of the 1982 El Chichón eruption and implications for hazard assessment (2012)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: El Chichón volcano, Chiapas, Mexico, erupted explosively on March 29th, 1982, after a repose period of about 550 years. Amongst ten eruptive episodes documented between March 29th and April 4th, only the three that occurred on March 29th and April 4th produced significant pyroclastic tephra deposits. Here we use analytical (HAZMAP) and numerical (FALL3D) tephra transport models to reconstruct the deposits and the atmospheric plume dispersal associated with the three main fallout units of the 1982 eruption. On the basis of such a reconstruction, we produce hazard maps of tephra fallout associated to a Plinian eruption and discuss the implications of such a severe eruption scenario.
    Description: Published
    Description: 39–49
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Fallout deposit ; 1982 El Chichón eruption ; HAZMAP ; FALL3D ; Hazard assessment ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 11
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    An overview of experimental models to understand a complex volcanic instability: Application to Mount Etna, Italy (2012)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Volcanic edifices are often unable to support their own load, triggering the instability of their flanks. Many analogue models have been aimed, especially in the last decade, at understanding the processes leading to volcano flank instability; general behaviors were defined and the experimental results were compared to nature. However, available data at well-studied unstable volcanoes may allow a deeper understanding of the specific processes leading to instability, providing insights also at the local scale. Etna (Italy) constitutes a suitable example for such a possibility, because of its well-monitored flank instability, for which different triggering factors have been proposed in the last two decades. Among these factors, recent InSAR data highlight the role played by magmatic intrusions and a weak basement, under a differential unbuttressing at the volcano base. This study considers original and recently published experimental data to test these factors possibly responsible for flank instability, with the final aim to better understand and summarize the conditions leading to flank instability at Etna. In particular, we simulate the following processes: a) the longterm activity of a lithospheric boundary, as the Malta Escarpment, separating the Ionian oceanic lithosphere from the continental Sicilian lithosphere, below the most unstable east flank of the volcano; b) spreading due to a weak basement, with different boundary conditions; c) the pressurization of a magmatic reservoir, as that active during the 1994–2001 inflation period; d) dike emplacement, as observed during the major 2001 and 2002–2003 eruptions. The experimental results suggest that: 1) the long-term activity of a lithospheric tectonic boundary may create a topographic slope which provides a differential buttressing at the volcano base, a preparing factor to drive longer-term (〉105 years) instability on the east flank of the volcano; 2) volcano spreading (b104 years) has limited effect on flank instability at Etna; 3) magmatic intrusions (b101 years), both in the form of Mogi-like sources or dikes, provide the most important conditions to trigger flank instability on the shorter-term.
    Description: Thisworkwas partially funded by INGV and the Italian DPC (DPC-INGV project V4 “Flank”).
    Description: Published
    Description: 98-111
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: volcano instability ; analogue modeling ; Etna ; unbuttressing ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.06. Rheology, friction, and structure of fault zones ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.02. Experimental volcanism ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.03. Magmas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 12
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    Volcanic risk perception in the Campi Flegrei area (2013)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The Campi Flegrei which includes part of the city of Naples, is an active volcanic system; its last eruption occurred in 1538 AD. More recently two significant crises occurred between 1969 and 72 and 1982–84 and were accompanied by ground movements (bradyseism) and seismic activity, forcing people of the town of Pozzuoli to be evacuated. Since 1984 development of a volcanic emergency plan has been underway. In 2000 Civil Protection published a risk map which defined the Red Zone, an area highly at risk from pyroclastic flows, which would need to be evacuated before an eruption. The first study to evaluate the volcanic risk perceptions of the people living within the Campi Flegrei area was completed in spring 2006, resulting in the largest sample ever studied on this topic except for one on Vesuvio area residents by Barberi et al. (2008). A 46 item questionnaire was distributed to 2000 of the approximately 300,000 residents of the Campi Flegrei Red Zone, which includes three towns and four neighborhoods within the city of Naples. A total of 1161 questionnaires were returned, for an overall response rate of 58%. Surveys were distributed to junior high and high school students, as well as to adult members of the general population. Results indicated that unlike issues such as crime, traffic, trash, and unemployment, volcanic hazards are not spontaneously mentioned as a major problem facing their community. However, when asked specific questions about volcanic risks, respondents believe that an eruption is likely and could have serious consequences for themselves and their communities and they are quite worried about the threat. Considering the events of 1969–72 and 1982–84, it was not surprising that respondents indicated earthquakes and ground deformations as more serious threats than eruptive phenomena. Of significant importance is that only 17% of the sample knows about the existence of the Emergency Plan, announced in 2001, and 65% said that they have not received enough information about the possible effects of an eruption. In addition, residents' sense of community was significantly positively correlated with both confidence in local authorities and Civil Protection as well as residents' feelings of self efficacy regarding their ability to protect themselves from a potential eruption. These results indicate that most residents of Campi Flegrei, while aware of the volcanic threat posed by Vesuvio, are not familiar with more local volcanic hazards in their area. This, coupled with little knowledge about the Emergency Plan and the very low level of information residents have about the effects of a possible eruption, suggests that authorities, in collaboration with the scientific community, should direct their efforts to better educate and inform the population about volcanic hazards and the Emergency Plan, and that such efforts could be facilitated by trying to encourage stronger community bonds.
    Description: Published
    Description: 118-130
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Volcanic risk perception ; Campi Flegrei Caldera ; Public awareness ; Emergency plan ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 13
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    Hazard assessment at Mount Etna using a hybrid lava flow inundation model and satellite-based land classification (2012)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Using a lava flow emplacement model and a satellite-based land cover classification, we produce a map to allow assessment of the type and quantity of natural, agricultural and urban land cover at risk from lava flow invasion. The first step is to produce lava effusion rate contours, i.e., lines linking distances down a volcano’s flank that a lava flow will likely extend if fed at a given effusion rate from a predetermined vent zone. This involves first identifying a vent mask and then running a downhill flow path model from the edge of every pixel around the vent mask perimeter to the edge of the DEM. To do this, we run a stochastic model whereby the flow path is projected 1,000 times from every pixel around the vent mask perimeter with random noise being added to the DEM with each run so that a slightly different flow path is generated with each run. The FLOWGO lava flow model is then run down each path, at a series of effusion rates, to determine likely run-out distance for channel-fed flow extending down each path. These results are used to plot effusion rate contours. Finally, effusion rate contours are projected onto a land classification map (produced from an ASTER image of Etna) to assess the type and amount of each land cover class falling within each contour. The resulting maps are designed to provide a quick look-up capability to assess the type of land at risk from lava extending from any location at a range of likely effusion rates. For our first (2,000 m) vent zone case used for Etna, we find a total of area of ~680 km2 is at risk from flows fed at 40 m3 s−1, of which ~6 km2 is urban, ~150 km2 is agriculture and ~270 km2 is grass/woodland. The model can also be run for specific cases, where we find that Etna’s 1669 vent location, if active today, would likely inundate almost 11 km2 of urban land, as well as 15.6 km2 of agricultural land, including 9.5 km2 of olive groves and 5.2 km2 of vineyards and fruit/nut orchards.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1001-1027
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Lava flow ; Risk ; FLOWGO ; ASTER image ; Land classification ; Mt. Etna ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 14
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    Morphometric analysis of lava flow units: Case study over LIDAR-derived topography at Mount Etna, Italy (2012)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: High resolution, LIDAR-derived digital elevation models of volcanic areas can significantly improve knowledge of lava flow morphology and emplacement mechanisms. Here we focus on single flow units, presenting a new semi-automatic procedure which provides a quantitative analysis of their shape. The method relies on the automatic processing of the elevation profiles obtained on transects orthogonal to the flow unit axis. The initial phase of the Mount Etna flank eruption from September 2004 is taken as test case, and the procedure is applied on an active lava flow, which was emplaced on the eastern flank of the volcano. The main topographic dataset used is a 2-m-resolution digital elevation model obtained from a LIDAR survey. Starting from the axis of a lava flow unit, our method yields morphometric data on the flow unit at a 2 m spacing, calculating parameters including flow width, channel width, the heights of the levees, inward and outward slope of levees, and estimating pre-emplacement slope along the axis. The procedure is embedded in a customized GIS, which allows easy processing, handling and displaying of data. The procedure has also been applied to another flow unit emplaced during the October–November 1999 overflow from the Bocca Nuova crater. Results show that the channel width seems to accommodate first‐order trends of the pre-emplacement slope along the flow unit axis, while it is little affected by high frequency changes in slope; in contrast, flow unit width and flow unit thickness are apparently influenced by small‐scale changes in slope. The different emplacement conditions of the two flow units are reflected by the overall contrasting morphologies, as shown by the different average thickness and by the different ratios between (i) flow width vs. channel width and (ii) flow unit section area vs. channel width. The new method provides an enhanced, systematic and thorough morphometric description of flow units, which may improve the understanding of the emplacement mechanisms of lava flows on Earth and other planets.
    Description: Published
    Description: 11-22
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: LIDAR ; Lava flow unit ; Lava flow morphology ; High resolution DEM ; Etna ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.02. Experimental volcanism ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.03. Magmas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
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  • 15
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    Rapid differentiation in a sill-like magma reservoir: a case study from the campi flegrei caldera (2012)
    Nature Publishing Group
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In recent decades, geophysical investigations have detected wide magma reservoirs beneath quiescent calderas. However, the discovery of partially melted horizons inside the crust is not sufficient to put constraints on capability of reservoirs to supply cataclysmic eruptions, which strictly depends on the chemical-physical properties of magmas (composition, viscosity, gas content etc.), and thus on their differentiation histories. In this study, by using geochemical, isotopic and textural records of rocks erupted from the high-risk Campi Flegrei caldera, we show that the alkaline magmas have evolved toward a critical state of explosive behaviour over a time span shorter than the repose time of most volcanic systems and that these magmas have risen rapidly toward the surface. Moreover, similar results on the depth and timescale of magma storage were previously obtained for the neighbouring Somma-Vesuvius volcano. This consistency suggests that there might be a unique long-lived magma pool beneath the whole Neapolitan area.
    Description: Published
    Description: article 712
    Description: 2.3. TTC - Laboratori di chimica e fisica delle rocce
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: N/A or not JCR
    Description: open
    Keywords: magma ; campi flegrei caldera ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.05. Mineralogy and petrology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.03. Magmas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.05. Volcanic rocks ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
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  • 16
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    Thermal weakening of the carbonate basement under Mt. Etna volcano (Italy): Implications for volcano instability (2014)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The physical integrity of a sub-volcanic basement is crucial in controlling the stability of a volcanic edifice. For many volcanoes, this basement can comprise thick sequences of carbonates that are prone to significant thermally-induced alteration. These debilitating thermal reactions, facilitated by heat from proximal magma storage volumes, promote the weakening of the rock mass and likely therefore encourage edifice instability. Such instability can result in slow, gravitational spreading and episodic to continuous slippage of unstable flanks, and may also facilitate catastrophic flank collapse. Understanding the propensity of a particular sub-volcanic basement to such instability requires a detailed understanding of the influence of high temperatures on the chemical, physical, and mechanical properties of the rocks involved. The juxtaposition of a thick carbonate substratum and magmatic heat sources makes Mt. Etna volcano an ideal candidate for our study. We investigated experimentally the effect of temperature on two carbonate rocks that have been chosen to represent the deep, heterogeneous sedimentary substratum under Mt. Etna volcano. This study has demonstrated that thermal-stressing resulted in a progressive and significant change in the physical properties of the two rocks. Porosity, wet (i.e., water-saturated) dynamic Poisson's ratio and wet Vp/Vs ratio all increased, whilst P- and S-wave velocities, bulk sample density, dynamic and static Young's modulus, dry Vp/Vs ratio, and dry dynamic Poisson's ratio all decreased. At temperatures of 800 °C, the carbonate in these rocks completely dissociated, resulting in a total mass loss of about 45% and the release of about 44 wt.% of CO2. Uniaxial deformation experiments showed that high in-situ temperatures (〉500 °C) significantly reduced the strength of the carbonates and altered their deformation behaviour. Above 500 °C the rocks deformed in a ductile manner and the output of acoustic emissions was greatly reduced. We speculate that thermally-induced weakening and the ductile behaviour of the carbonate substratum could be a key factor in explaining the large-scale deformation observed at Mt. Etna volcano. Our findings are consistent with several field observations at Mt. Etna volcano and can quantitatively support the interpretation of (1) the irregularly low seismic velocity zones present within the sub-volcanic sedimentary basement, (2) the anomalously high CO2 degassing observed, (3) the anomalously high Vp/Vs ratios and the rapid migration of fluids, and (4) the increasing instability of volcanic edifices in the lifespan of a magmatic system. We speculate that carbonate sub-volcanic basement may emerge as one of the decisive fundamentals in controlling volcanic stability.
    Description: Published
    Description: 42-60
    Description: 2R. Laboratori sperimentali e analitici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Decarbonation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
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  • 17
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    Sulphur-gas concentrations in volcanic and geothermal areas in Italy and Greece: Characterising potential human exposures and risks (2013)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Passive samplers were used to measure the atmospheric concentrations of SO2 naturally emitted at three volcanoes in Italy (Etna, Vulcano and Stromboli) and of H2S naturally emitted at three volcanic/geothermal areas in Greece (Milos, Santorini and Nisyros). The measured concentrations and dispersion patterns varied with the strength of the source (open conduits or fumaroles), the meteorological conditions and the area topography. At Etna, Vulcano and Stromboli, SO2 concentrations reach values that are dangerous to people affected by bronchial asthma or lung diseases (〉1000 μg m−3). H2S values measured at Nisyros also exceed the limit considered safe for the same group of people (〉3000 μg m−3). The data obtained using passive samplers represent time-averaged values over periods from a few days up to 1 month, and hence concentrations probably reached much higher peak values that were potentially also dangerous to healthy people. The present study provides evidence of a peculiar volcanic risk associated with tourist exploitation of active volcanic areas. This risk is particularly high at Mt. Etna, where the elderly and people in less-than-perfect health can easily reach areas with dangerous SO2 concentrations via a cableway and off-road vehicles
    Description: Published
    Description: 1-13
    Description: 4.5. Studi sul degassamento naturale e sui gas petroliferi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Sulphur dioxide ; Hydrogen sulphide ; Volcanic risks ; Gas hazard ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.07. Volcanic effects ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.12. Fluid Geochemistry ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
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  • 18
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    Reconstruction of the eruptive activity on the NE sector of Stromboli volcano: timing of flank eruptions since 15 ka (2010)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-24
    Description: A multidisciplinary geological and compositional investigation allowed us to reconstruct the occurrence of flank eruptions on the lower NE flank of Stromboli volcano since 15 ka. The oldest flank eruption recognised is Roisa, which occurred at ~15 ka during the Vancori period, and has transitional compositional characteristics between the Vancori and Neostromboli phases. Roisa was followed by the San Vincenzo eruption that took place at ~12 ka during the early stage of Neostromboli period. The eruptive fissure of San Vincenzo gave rise to a large scoria cone located below the village of Stromboli, and generated a lava flow, most of which lies below sea level. Most of the flank eruptions outside the barren Sciara del Fuoco occurred in a short time, between ~9 and 7 ka during the Neostromboli period, when six eruptive events produced scoria cones, spatter ramparts and lava flows. The Neostromboli products belong to a potassic series (KS), and cluster in two differently evolved groups. After an eruptive pause of ~5,000 years, the most recent flank eruption involving the NE sector of the island occurred during the Recent Stromboli period with the formation of the large, highly K calc-alkaline lava flow field, named San Bartolo. The trend of eruptive fissures since 15 ka ranges from N30°E to N55°E, and corresponds to the magma intrusions radiating from the main feeding system of the volcano.
    Description: The mapping of Stromboli was supported by a grant to S. Calvari (Project V2/01, 2005–2007, funded by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia and by the Italian Civil Protection). This work was partly supported by INGV through a research grant financed by MIUR-FIRB to G. Norini. We wish to thank the former Director of INGV-Sezione di Catania, A. Bonaccorso, for making additional funds available for field trip and datings.
    Description: In press
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Stromboli ; flank fissures ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
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  • 19
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    Rapid terrain-based mapping of some volcaniclastic flow hazard using Gis-based automated methods: a case study from southern Campania, Italy (2011)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Destructive volcaniclastic flows are among the most recurrent and dangerous natural phenomena in volcanic areas. They can originate not only during or shortly after an eruption (syn-eruptive) but also during a period of volcanic quiescence (inter-eruptive), when heavy and/or persistent rains remobilize loose pyroclastic deposits. The area in Italy most prone to such flows is that of the Apennine Mountains bordering the southern Campania Plain. These steep slopes are covered by pyroclastic material of variable thickness (a few cm to several m) derived from the explosive activity of the Somma-Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei volcanoes a few tens of kilometers to the west. The largest and most recent devastating event occurred on May 5, 1998, causing the death of more than 150 people and considerable damage to villages at the foot of the Apennine Mountains. This tragic event was only the most recent of a number of volcaniclastic flows affecting the area in both historical and prehistoric times. Historical accounts report that more than 500 events have occurred in the last five centuries and that more than half of these occurred in the last 100 years, causing hundreds of deaths. In order to improve volcaniclastic flow hazard zonation and risk mitigation in the study area, we produced a zonation map that identifies the drainage basins potentially prone to disruption. This map was obtained by combining morphological characteristics (concavity and basin shape factor) and the mean slope distribution of drainage basins derived from a digital elevation model with a 10-m resolution. These parameters allowed for the classification of 1,069 drainage basins, which have been grouped into four different classes of proneness to disruption: low, moderate, high and very high. The map compiled in a GIS environment, as well as the linked database, can be rapidly queried.
    Description: Published
    Description: 371-387
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Volcaniclastic flow hazard ; GIS ; Vesuvian area ; Southern Campania Plain ; Slope instability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
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  • 20
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    Distal Turbidites and Tsunamigenic Landslides of Stromboli Volcano (Aeolian Islands, Italy) (2011)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: On 30 December 2002, a 25-30 × 106 m3 landslide on the NW flank of Stromboli volcano produced a tsunami that caused relevant damage to the Stromboli village and to the neighboring islands of the Aeolian archipelago. The NW flank of Stromboli has been the site of several, cubic kilometer-scale, landslides during the past 13 ka. In this paper we present sedimentological and compositional data of deep-sea cores recovered from a site located about 24 km north of the island. Our preliminary results indicate that: (i) turbidity currents were effectively generated by the large-scale failures and (ii) volcanogenic turbidity current deposits retain clues of the landslide source and slope failure dynamics. By analogy with Hawaii and the Canary islands we confirm that deep-sea sediments can be effectively used to assess the age and scale of past landslide events giving an important contribution to the tsunami hazard assessment of this region.
    Description: Published
    Description: 719-731
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Landslide ; turbidite ; tsunami ; Stromboli ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.04. Marine geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 21
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    Dynamics of ash-dominated eruptions at Vesuvius: the post-512 AD AS1a event (2011)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Recent stratigraphic studies at Vesuvius have revealed that, during the past 4,000 years, long lasting,moderate to low-intensity eruptions, associated with continuous or pulsating ash emission, have repeatedly occurred. The present work focuses on the AS1a eruption, the first of a series of ash-dominated explosive episodes which characterized the period between the two Subplinian eruptions of 472 AD and 1631 AD. The deposits of this eruption consist of an alternation of massive and thinly laminated ash layers and minor well sorted lapilli beds, reflecting the pulsatory injection into the atmosphere of variably concentrated ash-plumes alternating with Violent Strombolian stages. Despite its nearly constant chemical composition, the juvenile material shows variable external clast morphologies and groundmass textures, reflecting the fragmentation of a magma body with lateral and/or vertical gradients in both vesicularity and crystal content. Glass compositions and mineralogical assemblages indicate that the eruption was fed by rather homogeneous phonotephritic magma batches rising from a reservoir located at ~ 4 km (100 MPa) depth, with fluctuations between magma delivery and magma discharge. Using crystal size distribution (CSD) analyses of plagioclase and leucite microlites, we estimate that the transit time of the magma in the conduit was on the order of ~ 2 days, corresponding to an ascent rate of around 2× 10−2 ms−1. Accordingly, assuming a typical conduit diameter for this type of eruption, the minimum duration of the AS1a event is between about 1.5 and 6 years. Magma fragmentation occurred in an inertially driven regime that, in a magma with low viscosity and surface tension, can act also under conditions of slow ascent.
    Description: In press
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Ash emission activity ; Tephrite ; Vesuvius ; Stratigraphy ; Textural analyses ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.05. Volcanic rocks ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
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  • 22
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    The distal segment of Etna’s 2001 basaltic lava flow (2011)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Etna’s 2001 basaltic lava flow provided a good example of the distal flow segment between the flow front and stable channel, across which the flow evolves from channel-contained to dispersed. This zone was mapped with meter precision using LIDAR data collected during 2004 and 2005. These data, supported by field mapping, show that the flow front comprised eight lobes each 10 to 20 m high. The flow front appears to have advanced not as a single unit, but as a series of lobes moving forward one lobe at a time. Primary lobes were centered on the channel axis and marginal lobes were off-axis. The lobes advanced as breakouts of low-yield-strength lava from the flow core of the stalled flow front. Marginal lobes were abandoned and contributed to marginal levees flanking the transitional channel. For Etna’s 2001 flow, the transitional channel is 140 m wide, 700 m long and fed a 240-m-long zone of dispersed flow; the change from stable to transitional channel occurred at a major reduction in slope. Above this, the stable channel is 5.2 km long, 55 to 105 m wide and bounded by 15- to 25-m-high levees, and the stable channel is located over a previous channel. In a final stage of activity, lava ponding at the break-in-slope that marks the terminus of the stable channel put pressure on the eastern levee, causing it to fail. Liberated lava then fed a final break-out to the east. Similar flow front-features occur at other volcanoes, indicating that similar processes are characteristic of dispersed flow zones.
    Description: Published
    Description: 119-127
    Description: 1.10. TTC - Telerilevamento
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Basalt lava ; Channelised lava flow ; Flow front ; Zone of dispersed flow ; Flow dynamics ; LIDAR ; Etna ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.05. Volcanic rocks ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
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  • 23
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    Changes of the susceptibility to lava flow invasion induced by morphological modifications of an active volcano: the case of Mount Etna, Italy (2011)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Changes of the susceptibility to lava flow invasion at Mount Etna are quantified by using lava flow simulations on four Digital Elevation Models documenting the morphostructural modifications of the volcano in the time interval 1986–2007. The probabilistic code DOWNFLOW is used to derive the areas invaded by several thousands of lava flows obtaining, for each DEM, maps of the susceptibility to lava flow invasion and of the lava flow hazard. These maps show, for the first time, the evolution of these surficial properties with time, and render a quantitative image of the effects of topographic changes on the preferential lava flow drainage paths. The results illustrate how the emplacement of new lava flows and the growth of scoria cones affect the probability of inundation by lava flows. We conclude that the persistent activity of this volcano requires a frequent updating of the topography for a reliable lava flow hazard assessment.
    Description: Published
    Description: 537-546
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Lava flow simulation ; Digital Elevation Model ; Lidar ; Time series ; Lava flow hazard maps ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous
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  • 24
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    Quantitative hazard assessment of phreatomagmatic eruptions at Vulcano (Aeolian Islands, Southern Italy) as obtained by combining stratigraphy, event statistics and physical modelling (2012)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-12-16
    Description: The detailed analysis of stratigraphy allowed the reconstruction of the complex volcanic history of La Fossa di Vulcano. An eruptive activity mainly driven by superficial phreatomagmatic explosions emerged. A statistical analysis of the pyroclastic Successions led to the identification of dilute pyroclastic density currents (base surges) as the most recurrent events, followed by fallout of dense ballistic blocks. The scale of events is related to the amount of magma involved in each explosion. Events involving about 1 million cm3 of magma occurred during recent eruptions. They led to the formation of hundreds of meters thick dilute pyroclastic density currents, moving down the volcano slope at velocities exceeding 50 m/s. The dispersion of density currents affected the whole Vulcano Porto area, the Vulcanello area. They also overrode the Fossa Caldera's rim, spreading over the Piano area. For the aim of hazard assessment, deposits from La Fossa Cone and La Fossa Caldera were studied in detail, to depict the eruptive scenarios at short-term and at long-term. By means of physical models that make use of deposit particle features, the impact parameters have been calculated. They are dynamic pressure and particle volumetric concentration of density currents, and impact energy of ballistic blocks. A quantitative hazard map, based on these impact parameters, is presented. It could be useful for territory planning and for the calculation of the expected damage.
    Description: Published
    Description: 364-384
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Volcanic Hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
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  • 25
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    The scientific management of volcanic crises (2013)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-08
    Description: Sound scientific management of volcanic crises is the primary tool to reduce significantly volcanic risk in the short-term. At present, a wide variety of qualitative or semi-quantitative strategies is adopted, and there is not yet a commonly accepted quantitative and general strategy. Pre-eruptive processes are extremely com- plicated, with many degrees of freedom nonlinearly coupled, and poorly known, so scientists must quantify eruption forecasts through the use of probabilities. On the other hand, this also forces decision-makers to make decisions under uncertainty. We review the present state of the art in this field in order to identify the main gaps of the existing procedures. Then, we put forward a general quantitative procedure that may overcome the present barriers, providing guidelines on how probabilities may be used to take rational miti- gation actions. These procedures constitute a crucial link between science and society; they can be used to establish objective and transparent decision-making protocols and also clarify the role and responsibility of each partner involved in managing a crisis.
    Description: Published
    Description: 181-189
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: eruption forecasting ; decision making ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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