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  • Articles  (8)
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability  (4)
  • Wave scattering and diffraction  (4)
  • Wiley-Blackwell  (8)
  • 2010-2014  (8)
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  • Articles  (8)
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  • 1
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    Comparison of characteristic and Gutenberg–Richter models for time-dependentM ≥ 7.9 earthquake probability in the Nankai-Tokai subduction zone, Japan (2012)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-10
    Description: Earthquake forecasts are usually underinformed, and can be plagued by uncertainty in terms of the most appropriate model, and parameter values used in that model. In this paper, we explore the application of two different models to the same seismogenic area. The first is a renewal model based on the characteristic earthquake hypothesis that uses historical/palaeoseismic recurrence times, and fixed rupture geometries. The hazard rate is modified by the Coulomb static stress change caused by nearby earthquakes that occurred since the latest characteristic earthquake. The second model is a very simple earthquake simulator based on plate-motion, or fault-slip rates and adoption of a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency distribution. This information is commonly available even if historical and palaeoseismic recurrence data are lacking. The intention is to develop and assess a simulator that has a very limited parameter set that could be used to calculate earthquake rates in settings that are not as rich with observations of large-earthquake recurrence behaviour as the Nankai trough. We find that the use of convergence rate as a primary constraint allows the simulator to replicate much of the spatial distribution of observed segmented rupture rates along the Nankai, Tonankai and Tokai subduction zones. Although we note rate differences between the two forecast methods in the Tokai zone, we also see enough similarities between simulations and observations to suggest that very simple earthquake rupture simulations based on empirical data and fundamental earthquake laws could be useful forecast tools in information-poor settings.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1673-1688
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Time series analysis ; Spatial analysis ; Probability distributions ; Seismic cycle ; Earthquake interaction ; forecasting, and prediction ; Statistical seismology. ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.05. Historical seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Predictability study on the aftershock sequence following the 2011 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake: first results (2012)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-08
    Description: Although no deterministic and reliable earthquake precursor is known to date, we are steadily gaining insight into probabilistic forecasting that draws on space–time characteristics of earthquake clustering. Clustering-based models aiming to forecast earthquakes within the next 24 hours are under test in the global project ‘Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability’ (CSEP). The 2011 March 11 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan provides a unique opportunity to test the existing 1-day CSEP models against its unprecedentedly active aftershock sequence. The original CSEP experiment performs tests after the catalogue is finalized to avoid bias due to poor data quality. However, this study differs from this tradition and uses the preliminary catalogue revised and updated by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), which is often incomplete but is immediately available. This study is intended as a first step towards operability-oriented earthquake forecasting in Japan. Encouragingly, at least one model passed the test in most combinations of the target day and the testing method, although the models could not take account of the megaquake in advance and the catalogue used for forecast generation was incomplete. However, it can also be seen that all models have only limited forecasting power for the period immediately after the quake. Our conclusion does not change when the preliminary JMAcatalogue is replaced by the finalized one, implying that the models perform stably over the catalogue replacement and are applicable to operational earthquake forecasting. However, we emphasize the need of further research on model improvement to assure the reliability of forecasts for the days immediately after the main quake. Seismicity is expected to remain high in all parts of Japan over the coming years. Our results present a way to answer the urgent need to promote research on time-dependent earthquake predictability to prepare for subsequent large earthquakes in the near future in Japan.
    Description: Published
    Description: 653-658
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Time-series analysis ; Probabilistic forecasting ; Seismicity and tectonics ; Computational seismology ; Statistical seismology ; Asia ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 3
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    A smoothed stochastic earthquake rate model considering seismicity and fault moment release for Europe (2014)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-15
    Description: We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our model is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past earthquake locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumption that the locations of past seismicity is a good guide to future seismicity, and that future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. We show that the optimal weighted sum of the corresponding two spatial densities depends on the magnitude range considered. The kernel bandwidths and density weighting function are optimized using retrospective likelihood-based forecast experiments. We computed earthquake activity rates (a- and b-value) of the truncated Gutenberg–Richter distribution separately for crustal and subduction seismicity based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the catalogue. The final annual rate of our forecast is purely driven by the maximum likelihood fit of activity rates to the catalogue data, whereas its spatial component incorporates contributions from both earthquake and fault moment-rate densities. Our model constitutes one branch of the earthquake source model logic tree of the 2013 European seismic hazard model released by the EU-FP7 project ‘Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe’ (SHARE) and contributes to the assessment of epistemic uncertainties in earthquake activity rates. We performed retrospective and pseudo-prospective likelihood consistency tests to underline the reliability of our model and SHARE’s area source model (ASM) using the testing algorithms applied in the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). We comparatively tested our model’s forecasting skill against the ASM and find a statistically significant better performance for testing periods of 10–20 yr. The testing results suggest that our model is a viable candidate model to serve for long-term forecasting on timescales of years to decades for the European region.
    Description: EC-Research FP7-projects, SHARE, under grant agreement No. 226967 and NERA, under grant agreement No. 262330
    Description: Published
    Description: 1159-1172
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Probabilistic forecasting ; Statistical seismology ; Europe ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
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    Seismic energy envelopes in volcanic media: in need of boundary conditions (2013)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-15
    Description: Seismogram envelopes recorded at Campi Flegrei caldera show diffusive characteristics as well as steep amplitude increases in the intermediate and late coda, which can be related to the presence of a non-uniformly scattering medium. In this paper, we first show the results of a simulation with a statistical model considering anisotropic scattering interactions, in order to match coda-envelope duration and shape.We consider as realistic parameters for a volcanic caldera the presence of large square root velocity fluctuations (10 per cent) and two typical correlation lengths for such an heterogeneous crust, a = 0.1 and 1 km. Then, we propose the inclusion of a diffusive boundary condition in the stochastic description of multiple scattering, in order to model intermediate and late coda intensities, and particularly the sharp intensity peaks at some stations in the caldera. Finally, we show that a reliable 2-D synthetic model of the envelopes produced by earthquakes vertically sampling a small region can be obtained including a single drastic change of the scattering properties of the volcano, that is, a caldera rim of radius 3 km, and sections varying between 2 and 3 km. These boundary conditions are diffusive, which signifies that the rim must have more scattering potential than the rest of the medium, with its diffusivity 2–3 orders of magnitude lower than the one of the background medium, so that the secondary sources on its interface(s) could enhance coda intensities. We achieve a good first-order model of high-frequency (18 Hz) envelope broadening adding to the Monte Carlo solution for the incident flux the secondary source effects produced by a closed annular boundary, designed on the caldera rim signature at 1.5 km depth. At lower frequencies (3 Hz) the annular boundary controls the intermediate and late coda envelope behaviour, in a way similar to an extended diffusive source. In our interpretation, the anomalous intensities observed at several stations and predicted by the final Monte Carlo solutions are mainly due to the diffusive transmission reflection from a scattering object of increased scattering power, and are controlled by its varying thickness.
    Description: This work was carried out under the HPC-Europa2 project (project number: 228398) with the support of the European Commission Capacities Area-Research Infrastructures Initiative. We thank the whole staff at EPCC (Edinburgh Parallel Computing Centre) in Edinburgh and particularly Dr. Adam Carter for their help in both developing and parallelizing the code. The challenging comments and suggestions of the editor and two anonymous reviewers helped both in focusing the aim and in overcoming the strong limits of a previous version of the paper.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1102–1119
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Numerical solutions; ; Seismic anisotropy; ; Seismic attenuation ; Seismic tomography ; Wave scattering and diffraction ; Calderas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
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    Imaging lateral heterogeneity in the northern Apennines from time reversal of reflected surface waves (2010)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Prominent arrivals in the coda of seismograms from the wider Alpine area can be associated with lateral reflections of Love waves at the northern Apennines mountain chain (Italy), where structural heterogeneity causes an abrupt contrast in phase velocity. We discuss an approach to image lateral heterogeneity from reflected surface waves using intermediate-period, three- component coda waveforms as sources for an adjoint wavefield that propagates the reflections backward in time. We numerically compute three-dimensional sensitivity kernels for the dependence of coda waveforms on P velocity, S velocity and density, based upon correlations between the adjoint and the regular forward wavefields. We consider synthetic coda waveforms for a simplified model of the northern Apennines, as well as real coda observations from five moderate magnitude earthquakes (M W 4.6–5.6) in the southern Alps. Wave propagation is simulated using the spectral-element method, for which a 3-D regional earth model is used in the case of real data. Single and combined event sensitivity kernels provide clear images of the reflectivity associated with the northern Apennines in kernels for density and S-wave speed. The kernels show that surface wave reflections occur near the axial zone of the mountain chain. Apart from the Apennines, the approach is able to image other smaller reflectivity patches from the coda waveforms, like the Ivrea zone in the southern Alps. Our coda misfit kernels can be integrated in a gradient-based waveform tomography, where they could enhance the shar pness of the model at lateral discontinuities.
    Description: Published
    Description: 543–554
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Tomography; ; Computational seismology ; Wave scattering and diffraction ; Crustal structure ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.07. Tomography and anisotropy
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
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    Fault geometry, coseismic-slip distribution and Coulomb stress change associated with the 2009 April 6, Mw 6.3, L’Aquila earthquake from inversion of GPS displacements (2011)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The 2009 April 6, Mw= 6.3 L’Aquila earthquake occurred within a complex system of NW–SE trending normal faults in the Abruzzi Central Apennines (Italy). We analyse the coseismic deformation as measured by 〉70 global positioning system (GPS) stations, both from continuous and survey-mode networks, providing unprecedented details for a moderate normal faulting earthquake in Italy from GPS measurements. We use rectangular, uniform-slip, dislocations embedded in an elastic, homogeneous and isotropic half-space and a constrained, non-linear optimization algorithm, to solve for the best-fitting rectangular dislocation geometry and coseismic-slip distribution. We use a bootstrap approach to investigate uncertainties in the model parameters and define confidence bounds for all the inverted parameters. The rupture occurred on a N129°E striking and 50° southwestward dipping normal fault, in agreement with geological observations of surface breaks along the Paganica fault. Our distributed slip model exhibits a zone of relatively higher slip (〉60 cm) between ∼1.5 and ∼11 km depth, along a roughly downdip, NW–SE elongated patch, confined within the fault plane inverted assuming uniform-slip. The highest slip, of the order of ∼1 m, occurred on a ∼16 km2 area located at ∼5 km depth, SE of the mainshock epicentre. The analysis of model resolution suggests that slip at depth below ∼5 km can be resolved only at a spatial scale larger than 2 km, so a finer discretization of different asperities within the main patch of coseismic-slip is not allowed by GPS data. We compute the coseismic Coulomb stress changes in the crustal volume affected by the major aftershocks, and compare the results obtained from the uniform-slip and the heterogeneous-slip models. We find that most of the large aftershocks occurred in areas of Coulomb stress increase of 0.2–13 bar and that a deepening of the slip distribution down to a depth greater than 6 km in the SE part of the fault plane, in agreement with the inverted slip model, can explain the deepest, April 7, Mw 5.3 aftershock.
    Description: Published
    Description: 473-489
    Description: 1.9. Rete GPS nazionale
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Satellite geodesy ; Space geodetic surveys ; Earthquake ground motions ; Earthquake source observations ; Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.07. Satellite geodesy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.06. Surveys, measurements, and monitoring
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
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    Joint observation of coherent coda waves at surface and underground arrays (2013)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Local and regional seismicity jointly recorded by two dense small aperture arrays, one installed at surface and one at 1.3 km depth, constitutes an interesting data set useful for coda observations. Applying array techniques to earthquakes recorded at the two arrays we measure slowness, backazimuth and correlation coefficient of the coherent coda wave signals in five frequency bands in the range 1–10 Hz. Slowness distributions show marked differences between surface and underground, with slow signals at surface (slowness greater than 1.0 s km−1) that are not observed underground. We interpret these coherent signals as surface waves produced by the interaction of body waves with the free surface characterized by rough topography. The backazimuth values measured in the frequency bands centred at 1.5 and 3 Hz are almost uniformly distributed between 0 and 360◦, while those measured at higher frequencies show different distributions between surface and underground. On the contrary, the earthquake envelopes show very similar coda shapes between surface and underground recordings, with an almost constant coda-amplitude ratio (between 4 and 8) in a wide frequency range.
    Description: Published
    Description: 367-371
    Description: 1.1. TTC - Monitoraggio sismico del territorio nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Coda waves ; Wave scattering and diffraction ; Wave propagation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
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    Spatial distribution of intrinsic and scattering seismic attenuation in active volcanic islands – II: Deception Island images (2013)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this work, we present regional maps of the inverse intrinsic quality factor (Qi −1), the inverse scattering quality factor (Qs −1) and total inverse quality factor (Qt −1) for the volcanic environment of Deception Island (Antarctica). Our attenuation study is based on diffusion approximation, which permits us to obtain the attenuation coefficients for every single couple source-receiver separately. The data set used in this research is derived from an active seismic experiment using more than 5200 offshore shots (air guns) recorded at 32 onshore seismic stations and four ocean bottom seismometers. To arrive at a regional distribution of these values, we used a new mapping technique based on a Gaussian space probability function. This approach led us to create ‘2-D probabilistic maps’ of values of intrinsic and scattering seismic attenuation. The 2-D tomographic images confirm the existence of a high attenuation body below an inner bay of Deception Island. This structure, previously observed in 2-D and 3-D velocity tomography of the region, is associated with a massive magma reservoir. Magnetotelluric studies reach a similar interpretation of this strong anomaly. Additionally, we observed areas with lower attenuation effects that bear correlation with consolidated structures described in other studies and associated with the crystalline basement of the area. Our calculations of the transport mean-free path and absorption length for intrinsic attenuation gave respective values of ≈950 m and 5 km, which are lower than the values obtained in tectonic regions or volcanic areas such as Tenerife Island. However, as observed in other volcanic regions, our results indicate that scattering effects dominate strongly over the intrinsic attenuation.
    Description: This work has been partially supported by the Spanish project Ephestos, CGL2011–29499-C02–01, by the EU project EC-FP7 MEDiterranean SUpersite Volcanoes (MED-SUV), by the Basque Government researcher training program BFI09.277 and by the Regional project ‘Grupo de Investigaci´on en Geof´ısica y Sismolog´ıa de la Junta de Andaluc´ıa, RNM104.’ Edoardo del Pezzo was partly supported by DPC-INGV projects UNREST SPEED and V2 (Precursori).
    Description: Published
    Description: 1957-1969
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Seismic attenuation; ; Seismic tomography ; Volcano seismology ; Wave scattering and diffraction ; Wave propagation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.07. Tomography and anisotropy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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