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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases  (9)
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous  (6)
  • Springer  (12)
  • Copernicus  (2)
  • American Institute of Physics
  • Nature Publishing Group
  • 2010-2014  (15)
  • 1945-1949
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Methane plays an important role in the Earth’s atmospheric chemistry and radiative balance being the second most important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Methane is released to the atmosphere by a wide number of sources, both natural and anthropogenic, with the latter being twice as large as the former (IPCC, 2007). It has recently been established that significant amounts of geological methane, produced within the Earth’s crust, are currently released naturally into the atmosphere (Etiope, 2004). Active or recent volcanic/geothermal areas represent one of these sources of geological methane. But due to the fact that methane flux measurements are laboratory intensive, very few data have been collected until now and the contribution of this source has been generally indirectly estimated (Etiope et al., 2007). The Greek territory is geodynamically very active and has many volcanic and geothermal areas. Here we report on methane flux measurements made at two volcanic/geothermal systems along the South Aegean volcanic arc: Sousaki and Nisyros. The former is an extinct volcanic area of Plio-Pleistocene age hosting nowadays a low enthalpy geothermal field. The latter is a currently quiescent active volcanic system with strong fumarolic activity due to the presence of a high enthalpy geothermal system. Both systems have gas manifestations that emit significant amounts of hydrothermal methane and display important diffuse carbon dioxide emissions from the soils. New data on methane isotopic composition and higher hydrocarbon contents point to an abiogenic origin of the hydrothermal methane in the studied systems. Measured methane flux values range from –48 to 29,000 (38 sites) and from –20 to 1100 mg/mˆ2/d (35 sites) at Sousaki and Nisyros respectively. At Sousaki measurement sites covered almost all the degassing area and the diffuse methane output can be estimated in about 20 t/a from a surface of about 10,000 mˆ2. At Nisyros measurements covered the Stephanos and Kaminakia areas, which represent only a part of the entire degassing area. The two areas show very different methane degassing pattern with latter showing much higher flux values. Methane output can be estimated in about 0.25 t/a from an area of about 30,000 mˆ2 at Stephanos and about 1 t/a from an area of about 20,000 mˆ2 at Kaminakia. The total output from the entire geothermal system of Nisyros probably should not exceed 2 t/a.
    Description: Published
    Description: Vienna, Austria
    Description: 4.5. Studi sul degassamento naturale e sui gas petroliferi
    Description: open
    Keywords: methane output ; diffuse degassing ; volcanic/hydrothermal systems ; Greece ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.03. Pollution ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.07. Volcanic effects ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.01. Geochemical data ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.01. Environmental risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Poster session
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: A biomonitoring survey, above tree line level, using two endemic species (Senecio aethnensis and Rumex aethnensis) was performed on Mt. Etna, in order to evaluate the dispersion and the impact of volcanic atmospheric emissions. Samples of leaves were collected in summer 2008 from 30 sites in the upper part of the volcano (1500- 3000 m a.s.l). Acid digestion of samples was carried out with a microwave oven, and 44 elements were analyzed by using plasma spectrometry (ICP-MS and ICP-OES). The highest concentrations of all investigated elements were found in the samples collected closest to the degassing craters, and in the downwind sector, confirming that the eastern flank of Mt. Etna is the most impacted by volcanic emissions. Leaves collected along two radial transects from the active vents on the eastern flank, highlight that the levels of metals decrease one or two orders of magnitude with increasing distance from the source. This variability is higher for volatile elements (As, Bi, Cd, Cs, Pb, Sb, Tl) than for more refractory elements (Al, Ba, Sc, Si, Sr, Th, U). The two different species of plants do not show significant differences in the bioaccumulation of most of the analyzed elements, except for lanthanides, which are systematically enriched in Rumex leaves. The high concentrations of many toxic elements in the leaves allow us to consider these plants as highly tolerant species to the volcanic emissions, and suitable for biomonitoring researches in the Mt. Etna area.
    Description: Published
    Description: Vienna, Austria
    Description: 4.4. Scenari e mitigazione del rischio ambientale
    Description: open
    Keywords: Mt. Etna ; biomonitoring ; Trace elements ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.03. Pollution ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.07. Volcanic effects ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.01. Geochemical data ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.01. Environmental risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Poster session
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The MW 8.8 mega-thrust earthquake and tsunami that occurred on February 27, 2010, offshore Maule region, Chile, was not unexpected. A clearly identified seismic gap existed in an area where tectonic loading has been accumulating since the great 1835 earthquake experienced and described by Darwin during the voyage of the Beagle. Here we jointly invert tsunami and geodetic data (InSAR, GPS, land-level changes), to derive a robust model for the co-seismic slip distribution and induced co-seismic stress changes, and compare them to past earthquakes and the pre-seismic locking distribution. We aim to assess if the Maule earthquake has filled the Darwin gap, decreasing the probability of a future shock . We find that the main slip patch is located to the north of the gap, overlapping the rupture zone of the MW 8.0 1928 earthquake, and that a secondary concentration of slip occurred to the south; the Darwin gap was only partially filled and a zone of high pre-seismic locking remains unbroken. This observation is not consistent with the assumption that distributions of seismic rupture might be correlated with pre-seismic locking, potentially allowing the anticipation of slip distributions in seismic gaps. Moreover, increased stress on this unbroken patch might have increased the probability of another major to great earthquake there in the near future.
    Description: Published
    Description: 173-177
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Source process ; Chile ; Tsunami ; Joint Inversion ; Seismic Gap ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.06. Subduction related processes ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.03. Inverse methods
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: This paper describes the damage survey in the city of L’Aquila after the 6 April 2009 earthquake. The earthquake, whose magnitude and intensity reached Mw=6.3 and Imax=9–10 MCS, struck the Abruzzi region of Central Italy producing severe damage in L’Aquila and in many villages along theMiddle Aterno River valley. After the event, a building- to-building survey was performed in L’Aquila downtown aiming to collect data in order to perform a strict evaluation of the damage. The survey was carried out under the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS98) to evaluate the local macroseismic intensity. This damage survey represents the most complex application of the EMS98 in Italy since it became effective. More than 1,700 buildings (99% of the building stock) were taken into account during the survey at L’Aquila downtown, highlighting the difficult application of the macroseismic scale in a large urban context. The EMS98 revealed itself to be the best tool to perform such kind of analysis in urban settings. The complete survey displayed evidence of peculiar features in the damage distribution. Results revealed that the highest rate of collapses occurred within a delimited area of the historical centre and along the SW border of the fluvial terrace on which the city is settled. Intensity assessed for L’Aquila downtown was 8–9 EMS.
    Description: Published
    Description: 67-80
    Description: 1.11. TTC - Osservazioni e monitoraggio macrosismico del territorio nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Macroseismic intensity ; EMS98 ; Damage survey ; L’Aquila ; 6 April 2009 earthquake ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Active volcanoes are thought to be important contributors to the atmospheric mercury (Hg) budget, and this chemical element is one of the most harmful atmospheric pollutants, owing to its high toxicity and long residence time in ecosystems. There is, however, considerable uncertainty over the magnitude of the global volcanic Hg flux, since the existing data on volcanogenic Hg emissions are sparse and often ambiguous. In an attempt to extend the currently limited dataset on volcanogenic Hg emissions, we summarize the results of Hg flux measurements at seven active open-conduit volcanoes; Stromboli, Asama, Miyakejima, Montserrat, Ambrym, Yasur, and Nyiragongo.. Data from the domebuilding Soufriere Hills volcano are also reported. Using our determined mercury to SO2 mass ratios in tandem with the simultaneously-determined SO2 emission rates, we estimate that the 7 volcanoes have Hg emission rates ranging from 0.2 to 18 t yr-1 (corresponding to a total Hg flux of ~41 t·yr-1). Based on our dataset and previous work, we propose that a Hg/SO2 plume ratio ~10-5 is bestrepresentative of gas emissions from quiescent degassing volcanoes. Using this ratio, we infer a global volcanic Hg flux from persistent degassing of ~95 t·yr-1
    Description: Published
    Description: 497-510
    Description: 1.2. TTC - Sorveglianza geochimica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: 2.4. TTC - Laboratori di geochimica dei fluidi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Volcanogenic mercury ; Mercury ; Volcanic plume ; Mercury flux ; Mercury inventories ; Atmospheric mercury ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.07. Volcanic effects ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.01. Geochemical exploration ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.12. Fluid Geochemistry ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We exploit S-wave spectral amplitudes from 112 aftershocks (3.0 ≤ ML ≤ 5.3) of the L’Aquila 2009 seismic sequence recorded at 23 temporary stations in the epicentral area to estimate the source parameters of these events, the seismic attenuation characteristics and the site amplification effects at the recording sites. The spectral attenuation curves exhibit a very fast decay in the first few kilometers that could be attributed to the large attenuation of waves traveling trough the highly heterogeneous and fractured crust in the fault zone of the L’Aquila mainshock. The S-waves total attenuation in the first 30 km can be parameterized by a quality factor QS(f) = 23f^0.58 obtained by fixing the geometrical spreading to 1/R. The source spectra can be satisfactorily modeled using the omega-square model that provides stress drops between 0.3 and 60 MPa with a mean value of 3.3±2.8 MPa. The site responses show a large variability over the study area and significant amplification peaks are visible in the frequency range from 1 to more than 10 Hz. Finally, the vertical component of the motion is amplified at a number of sites where, as a consequence, the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (HVSR) method fails in detecting the amplitude levels and in few cases the resonance frequencies.
    Description: Published
    Description: 717-739
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Generalized Inversion Technique ; 2009 L'Aquila earthquake ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: During 2007–2008, three CO2 flux surveys were performed on El Chichón volcanic lake, Chiapas, Mexico, with an additional survey in April 2008 covering the entire crater floor (including the lake). The mean CO2 flux calculated by sequential Gaussian simulation from the lake was 1,190 (March 2007), 730 (December 2007) and 1,134 g m−2 day−1 (April 2008) with total emission rates of 164±9.5 (March 2007), 59±2.5 (December 2007) and 109±6.6 t day−1 (April 2008). The mean CO2 flux estimated from the entire crater floor area was 1,102 g m−2 day−1 for April 2008 with a total emission rate of 144±5.9 t day−1. Significant change in CO2 flux was not detected during the period of survey, and the mapping of the CO2 flux highlighted lineaments reflecting the main local and regional tectonic patterns. The 3He/4He ratio (as high as 8.1 RA) for gases in the El Chichón crater is generally higher than those observed at the neighbouring Transmexican Volcanic Belt and the Central American Volcanic Arc. The CO2/3He ratios for the high 3He/4He gases tend to have the MORB-like values (1.41×109), and the CO2/3He ratios for the lower 3He/4He gases fall within the range for the arc-type gases. The high 3He/4He ratios, the MORB-like CO2/3He ratios for the high 3He/4He gases and high proportion of MORB-CO2 (M=25 ±15%) at El Chichón indicate a greater depth for the generation of magma when compared to typical arc volcanoes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 423-441
    Description: 2.4. TTC - Laboratori di geochimica dei fluidi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: El Chichon ; CO2 soil flux ; Crater Lake ; Gas geochemistry ; He-C isotopes ; Fumarolic and bubbling gases ; Tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.12. Fluid Geochemistry ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.08. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.06. Surveys, measurements, and monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.01. Geochemical data
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Here, we report the first continuous data of geochemical parameters acquired directly from the active summit crater of Vulcano. This approach provides a means to better investigate deep geochemical processes associated with the degassing system of Vulcano Island. In particular, we report on soil CO2 fluxes from the upper part of Vulcano, a closed-conduit volcano, from September 2007 to October 2010. Large variations in the soil CO2 and plume SO2 fluxes (order of magnitude), coinciding with other discontinuous geochemical parameters (CO2 concentrations in fumarole gas) and physical parameters (increase of shallow seismic activity and fumarole temperatures) have been recorded. The results from this work suggest new prospects for strengthening geochemical monitoring of volcanic activity and for improving the constraints in the construction of a “geochemical model”, this being a necessary condition to better understand the functioning of volcanic systems.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1859-1863
    Description: 2V. Dinamiche di unrest e scenari pre-eruttivi
    Description: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente
    Description: 5V. Sorveglianza vulcanica ed emergenze
    Description: 1R. Reti di monitoraggio e Osservazioni
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Vulcano Island ; Geochemical monitoring ; CO2 flux ; CO2 fumaroles ; SO2 flux ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.07. Volcanic effects ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.01. Geochemical data
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2020-02-24
    Description: On 27 February 2007, a new eruption occurred on Stromboli which lasted until 2 April. It was characterized by effusive activity on the Sciara del Fuoco and by a paroxysmal event (15 March). This crisis represented an opportunity for us to refine the model that had been developed previously (2002-2003 eruption) and to improve our understanding of the relationship between the magmatic dynamics of the volcano and the geochemical variations in the fluids. In particular, the evaluation of the dynamic equilibrium between the volatiles (CO2 and SO2) released from the magma and the corresponding fluids discharged from the summit area allowed us to evaluate the level of criticality of the volcanic activity. One of the major accomplishments of this study is a four-year database of summit soil CO2 flux on the basis of which we define the thresholds (Low-Medium-High) for this parameter that are empirically based on the natural volcanological evolution of Stromboli. The SO2 fluxes of the degassing plume and the CO2 fluxes emitted from the soil at Pizzo Sopra la Fossa are also presented. Noteworthy geochemical signals of volcanic unrest have been clearly identified before, during, and after the effusive activity. These signals were found almost simultaneously in the degassing plume (SO2 flux) and in soil degassing (CO2 flux) at the summit, although the two degassing processes are shown to be clearly different. The interpretation of the results will be useful for future volcanic surveillance at Stromboli.
    Description: In press
    Description: 2.4. TTC - Laboratori di geochimica dei fluidi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Stromboli Volcano ; CO2 soil flux ; Geochemical monitoring ; 2007 eruption ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.12. Fluid Geochemistry ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.10. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We describe analytical details and uncertainty evaluation of a simple technique for the measurement of the carbon isotopic composition of CO2 in volcanic plumes. Data collected at Solfatara and Vulcano, where plumes are fed by fumaroles which are accessible for direct sampling, were first used to validate the technique. For both volcanoes, the plume-derived carbon isotopic compositions are in good agreement with the fumarolic compositions, thus providing confidence on the method, and allowing its application at volcanoes where the volcanic component is inaccessible to direct sampling. As a notable example, we applied the same method to Mount Etna where we derived a δ13C of volcanic CO2 between −0.9±0.27‰ and −1.41± 0.27‰ (Bocca Nuova and Voragine craters). The comparison of our measurements to data reported in previous work values of Etna CO2 from~ −4‰, in the 1970’s and the 1980’s, to~ −1‰ at the present time (2009). This shift toward more positive δ13C values matches a concurrent change in magma composition and an increase in the eruption frequency and energy. We discuss such variations in terms of two possible processes: magma carbonate assimilation and carbon isotopic fractionation due to magma degassing along the Etna plumbing system. Finally, our results highlight potential of systematic measurements of the carbon isotopic composition of the CO2 emitted by volcanic plumes for a better understanding of volcanic processes and for improved surveillance of volcanic activity.
    Description: Published
    Description: 531-542
    Description: 2.4. TTC - Laboratori di geochimica dei fluidi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Volcanic plume ; Carbon isotope ; Etna ; Magmatic degassing ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Seismic activity, ground deformation, and soil and fumarole temperatures acquired during 2004–2007 at Vulcano (Aeolian Islands) are analysed and the time relations among the different time series are discussed. Changes in temperature of fumarolic gases took place during four ‘‘anomalous’’ periods (November 2004–March 2005; October 2005–February 2006; August–October 2006; July–December 2007) at the same time as an increasing number of volcano-seismic events. In particular, the temperatures at high temperature vents and at steam heated soil ranged in time from 180 to 440 C and from 20 to 90 C, respectively. The maximum daily number of volcano-seismic events was 57, reached during the second anomalous period. This seismicity, characterised by focal depth generally lower than 1 km below sea level (b.s.l.) and composed of different kinds of events associated to both resonance and shear failure processes, is related to the shallow dynamics of the hydrothermal system. During the analysed period, very few volcano-tectonic earthquakes took place and tilt recordings showed no sharp or important changes. In light of such observations, the increases in both temperature and volcano-seismic events number were associated to increases in the release of gas from a deep and stable magma body, without magma intrusions within the shallow hydrothermal system. Indeed, a greater release of gas from depth leads to increased fluid circulation, that can promote increases in volcano-seismic events number by both fracturing processes and resonance and vibration in cracks and conduits. The different trends observed in the measured geochemical and geophysical series during the anomalous periods can be due to either time changes in the medium permeability or a changing speed of gas release from a deep magma body. Finally, all the observed variations, together with the changing temporal distribution of the different seismic event kinds, suggest that the hydrothermal system at Vulcano can be considered unsteady and dynamic.
    Description: Published
    Description: 167–182
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Volcano seismolog ; soil and fumarole temperatures ; tilt data ; hydrothermal system ; Vulcano Island ; volcanic unrest ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We describe analytical details and uncertainty evaluation of a simple technique for the measurement of the carbon isotopic composition of CO2 in volcanic plumes. Data collected at Solfatara and Vulcano, where plumes are fed by fumaroles which are accessible for direct sampling, were first used to validate the technique. For both volcanoes, the plume-derived carbon isotopic compositions are in good agreement with the fumarolic compositions, thus providing confidence on the method, and allowing its application at volcanoes where the volcanic component is inaccessible to direct sampling. As a notable example, we applied the same method to Mount Etna where we derived a δ13C of volcanic CO2 between −0.9 ± 0.27‰ and −1.41 ± 0.27‰ (Bocca Nuova and Voragine craters). The comparison of our measurements to data reported in previous work highlights a temporal trend of systematic increase of δ13C values of Etna CO2 from ~ −4‰, in the 1970’s and the 1980’s, to ~ −1‰ at the present time (2009). This shift toward more positive δ13C values matches a concurrent change in magma composition and an increase in the eruption frequency and energy. We discuss such variations in terms of two possible processes: magma carbonate assimilation and carbon isotopic fractionation due to magma degassing along the Etna plumbing system. Finally, our results highlight potential of systematic measurements of the carbon isotopic composition of the CO2 emitted by volcanic plumes for a better understanding of volcanic processes and for improved surveillance of volcanic activity.
    Description: In press
    Description: 1.2. TTC - Sorveglianza geochimica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: 2.4. TTC - Laboratori di geochimica dei fluidi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Volcanic plume ; Carbon isotope ; Etna ; Magmatic degassing ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Using the characteristic earthquake model, we calculate the probability of occurrence of earthquakes Mw 〉 5.5 for individual fault sources in the Central Apennines for the 30-year period (2007–2037). We show the effect of timedependent and time-independent occurrence (Brownian passage time (BPT) and Poisson) models together with uncertain slip rates and uncertain maximum magnitudes and, hence, uncertain recurrence times. In order to reduce the large prior geological slip rate uncertainty distribution for most faults, we obtain a posterior slip rate uncertainty distribution using a likelihood function obtained from regional historical seismicity. We assess the uncertainty of maximum magnitude by assuming that the uncertainty in fault width and length are described by a normal distribution with standard deviation equal to ±20% of the mean values. We then estimate the uncertainties of the 30-year probability of occurrence of a characteristic event using a Monte Carlo procedure. Uncertainty on each parameter is represented by the 16th and the 84th percentiles of simulated values. These percentiles bound the range that has a 68% probability of including the real value of the parameter. We do these both for the Poisson case and for the BPT case by varying the aperiodicity parameter (α value) using the values 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7. The Bayesian posterior slip rate uncertainties typically differ by a factor of about 2 from the 16th to the 84th percentile. Occurrence probabilities for the next 30 years at the 84th percentile typically range from 1% to 2% for faults where the Poisson model dominates and from 2% to 21% where one of the BPT models dominates. The uncertainty in occurrence probability under the time-dependent hypothesis is very large, when measured by the ratio of the 84th to the 16th percentile, frequently being as much as two orders of magnitude. On the other hand, when measured by standard deviation, these standard deviations range from 2% to 6% for those faults whose elapsed time since previous event is large, but always 2% or less for faults with relatively recent previous occurrence, because the probability of occurrence is always small.
    Description: Published
    Description: 95-117
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: PROBABILITY OF OCCURENCES ; TIME-DEPENDENT ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Strong ground-shaking mapping soon after a moderate-to-large earthquake is crucial to recognize the areas that have suffered the largest damage and losses. These maps have a fundamental role for emergency services, loss estimation and planning of emergency actions by the Civil Protection Authorities. This is particularly important for areas with high seismic risk levels, such as the Campania-Lucania Region in southern Italy. Taking advantage of the Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet), a recently installed dense and wide dynamic seismic network, we have developed a procedure for rapid estimation of ground-shaking maps after moderate-to-large earthquakes (GRSmap). This uses an optimal data gridding scheme designed to account for bi-dimensional features of strong groundmotion fields, such as directivity, radiation patterns and focal mechanisms, to which most damage can be correlated. The basis of the mapping technique is a triangulation procedure to locally correct predicted data at the triangle barycentres where their vertices correspond to seismic stations. The method has been tested off-line using a simulated M 6.6 earthquake located at the centre of ISNet and applied to data of the 23 November 1980 Irpina M 6.9 earthquake recorded by a sparse network. This has highlighted its ability to predict peak ground-motion parameters of large magnitude earthquakes with respect to the attenuation relationships.
    Description: Published
    Description: 97–115
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Ground-shaking maps ; Triangulation scheme ; Seismic source ; Seismic hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Experimental data and numerical modelling were used to study the effect of local geology on the seismic response of the Catania area. The town extends on a marly clays bedrock and terraced deposits made up by coastal sands and alluvial conglomerates. This sedimentary substratum is deeply entrenched by paleo-valleys filled by lava flows and pyroclastics. Available borehole data and elastic parameters were used to reconstruct a geotechnical model in order to perfome 1D numerical modeling. Seismic urban scenarios were simulated considering destructive (Mw = 7.0), strong (Mw = 6.2) and moderate (Mw = 5.7) earthquakes to assess the shaking level of the different outcropping formations. For each scenario seven real accelerograms were selected from the European Strong Motion Database to assess the expected seismic input at the bedrock. PGA and spectral acceleration at different periods were obtained in the urban area through the equivalent linear numerical code EERA, and contour maps of different levels of shaking were drawn. Standard and horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios were achieved making use of a dataset of 172 seismic events recorded at ten sites located on the main outcropping lithotypes. Spectral ratios inferred from earthquake data were compared with theoretical transfer functions. Both experimental and numerical results confirm the role of the geological and morphologic setting of Catania. Amplification of seismic motion mainly occurs in three different stratigraphic conditions: (a) sedimentary deposits mainly diffused in the south of the study area; (b) spots of soft sediments surrounded by lava flows; (c) intensely fractured and scoriaceous basaltic lavas.
    Description: In press
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Scenario earthquake ; 1D modelling ; PGA values ; Earthquake records ; spectral ratios ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.06. Surveys, measurements, and monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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