ALBERT

Description: The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of disasters on international tourism demand for Japan by applying Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) intervention models that focus on evaluating change patterns and the duration of effects by observing variations in parameters. Japan suffered a variety of disasters, especially natural disasters due to its geographical location, so we have divided these disasters into three types: geological disasters, extreme weather events and “others” such as terrorist attacks, infectious diseases, and economic crises. Based on the principle of preparing for the worst, we selected 4 cases for each disaster type, for 12 in all. Results suggest that (1) large-scale disasters such as great earthquakes impacted negatively on inbound tourism demand for Japan; (2) not all disasters resulted in an abrupt drop in inbound tourist arrivals, extreme weather events, for example, did not decrease inbound tourism demand significantly; (3) impact caused by disasters was temporary.

Description: Damage to confined-masonry-brick or concrete-block house was assessed for being subjected to a tsunami wave load. This study was prompted by recent three tsunamis – one during 2001 on the Near Coast of Peru, one in 2009 in the Samoa Islands, and one in 2010 in Maule, Chile. We analyzed 13 damaged walls from 10 single-storey houses located near the coastline. We focused on evaluating the tsunami wave pressure distribution on house walls. Based on the formula proposed by Asakura et al. (2000) to evaluate tsunami wave pressure distribution on a structural component located on land behind on-shore structures, which is used for designing a tsunami evacuation building, we identify the values of horizontal wave pressure indexain Asakura’s formula for walls and discuss the boundary value ofaat which a wall presents structural damage, such as in collapse and cracking failure modes.

Description: Under the Peru-Japan SATREPS Project, a building monitoring system has been implemented in Lima city, supported by JST and JICA. This network monitors three buildings (HERM, PC-UNI and FIC-UNI); each building has five sensors, which consist in a GMR accelerometers. These buildings have different characteristics, such as age, ground mechanic properties, structural systems, and structural status. Since the implementation of this network, some quakes have been recorded. This paper describes the implementation of the monitoring network, and presents the response of the target buildings and their dynamics characteristics during these quakes.

Description: This paper aims to evaluate CFW programs as a disaster recovery policy tool in terms of the psychological aspects, using the questionnaire survey data of 897 participants in Fukushima Prefecture. The main findings are as follows: those who “want to contribute to the reconstruction of Fukushima,” “to newly acquire experience or skills” and “have access to trainer or instructor” significantly felt being “connected” and thought “positively” to the future. Interestingly, evacuees as a group generally had positive views for the future. The primary conclusion is that CFW has been successfully targeted to a vulnerable group, and has a psychologically positive impact on the participants, and especially on the evacuees.

Description: Sustainable crop production is important for food security in Northern Ghana, where highly variable rainfall coupled with high evaporation rates and soils prone to degradation combine to produce low crop yields of main staple crops that are vital for local people’s livelihoods. Rainfall in this region generally ranges between 800 mm and 1200 mm per annum, falling within a single rainy season from April to October, with a peak in late August-September. This amount is adequate for most arable crops such as maize, rainfed rice, soybeans, and yams. Intermittent dry spells occur, however, at critical crop growth stages, resulting in significant yield reductions. Several studies conducted in this area show that dry spells can be expected during each annual rain season, with a high level of certainty and duration fromtwo to three days up to four weeks. This paper reviews both available literature on dry spell incidence and rainfall prediction in the West African region, with a particular focus on northern Ghana. Available daily rainfall data for 52 consecutive years are analyzed to determine dry spell duration and occurrence in northern Ghana.

Description: The Thailand-Japan Research Collaboration Center on Emerging and Re-emerging Infections (RCC-ERI) was established in 2005 by the Research Institute for Microbial Diseases (RIMD), Osaka University, in collaboration with the National Institute of Health (NIH), Department of Medical Sciences (DMSc), Ministry of Public Health (MOPH), Thailand. This was initiated based on the recognition that, with today’s highly developed transportation networks including those between Japan and Thailand, infectious disease outbreak and transmission are no longer limited to a single country. Indeed, such diseases are likely to be transmitted immediately to a third country. This makes it essential to cooperate globally in exchanging information fast and often. A dozen Japanese researchers are working regularly at RCC-ERI, where they conduct joint research with Thai researchers on bacterial and viral infectious diseases prevailing in Thailand that could conceivably affect Japan. Examples of such diseases include cholera, meningitis with Streptococcus suis, AIDS, chikungunya fever, and dengue fever. Conducting long-term research in other countries often reveals gaps in perception due to differences in national laws and regulations, in rules and operating customs within research institutions, in economic and cultural backgrounds, and in values and ways of thinking among individual researchers. RCCERI is being operated as fine adjustments are made to achievemaximumproductivity and developing human resources. Some of the many researchers stationed at the Center faced unpredicted situations such as social chaos due to political instability or evacuation due to flooding and had to take emergency response measures. In this article, we cover aspects related to these experiences.

Description: In recent times, there has been increasing interest in the importance of agricultural soils as global carbon sinks, and the opportunity of enhancing the resilience of degraded agroecosystems – particularly in savannah regions of the world. However, this opportunity is largely a function of land use and/or land management choices, which differ between and within regions. In the present study, we investigated the role of agriculture land use and farm management practices on soil organic carbon (SOC) storage in the savannah regions of northern Ghana. We evaluated selected land use types by using an integrated approach, involving on-farm interviews, community transect walks, land use monitoring, and soil sampling. Our results indicated that, at the landscape level, community land use and resource needs are important determinants of SOC storage in farmlands. We determined low SOC accumulation across the investigated landscape; however, the relatively high SOC stock in protected lands compared with croplands implies the potential for increasing SOC build-up by using recommended management practices. Low incomes, constraints to fertilizer use, low biomass availability, and reductions in fallow periods remain as barriers to SOC buildup. In this context, global soil carbon storage potential and smallholder food production systems will benefit from an ecosystembased adaptation strategy that prioritizes building a portfolio of carbon stores at the landscape level.

Description: The first BSE case in Japan was found in 2001. The BSE risk in Japan was small and the measures taken by the government successfully prevented the spread of BSE. However, because consumers did not have accurate information, they did not trust the government and refused to consume beef. Based on the lessons learned, the government enacted the Food Safety Basic Act in 2003, and risk communication in the food field was started. In 2003, the first BSE case was found in the U.S. that were supplying nearly one third of the beef consumed in Japan, and the government banned beef import from the U.S. The BSE risk in the U.S. was also small and it was possible to resume imports of beef after the appropriate measures. Despite the government efforts of risk communication, consumers rejected the resumption of imports. In 2011, food was contaminated with radioactive substances discharged from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. Although government eliminated the contaminated food from the market, some consumers rejected all of the agricultural products of the Fukushima region, again a failure of risk communication. Here, the current situation and problems of the risk communication in Japan will be described.

Description: The Collaborative Research Center for Infectious Disease of Okayama University in India (CRCOUI) is located at the NICED (National Institute of Cholera and Enteric Diseases) in Kolkata, India. The main CRCOUI research project involves measure against diarrheal diseases based on JICA project conducted at the NICED. Specifically, this involved four study themes: (1) Active surveillance of diarrheal patients, (2) Development of dysentery vaccine, (3) Viable but nonculturable (VBNC)Vibrio cholerae, (4) Pathogenic mechanism of various diarrhogenic microorganisms. Diarrheal diseases are a major health problem in developing countries, so our project confirmed the detection system of diarrhogenic microorganisms including bacteria, viruses and protozoa. Project have been applied the system at 2 hospitals in Kolkata. To spread system use to other countries, training courses were conducted for researchers and technicians from the Vietnam and Indonesia Research Center, then similar active surveillance was started in both countries.

Description: The implementation of adequate urban development and measures systems against tsunami impact in coastal communities is improved by understanding damage probability among building structures. Within the framework of the project Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru (JST-JICA SATREPS), the authors analyze the damage probability of building structures due to tsunami impact in the Callao region of Peru. Two different tsunami hazard scenarios are assumed in assessing building damage probability. The first tsunami scenario represents the worse-case scenario of tsunami inundation that calculates the envelop of maximum inundation depth and flow velocity values from 12 probabilistic megathrust earthquake scenarios for central Peru. The second tsunami scenario corresponds to a historical tsunami event in this region. We apply a methodology for evaluating different levels of building damage by combining tsunami numerical results and tsunami fragility functions. Damage probability was analyzed in detail on a single building scale in the La Punta district. For the rest of Callao region, analysis was performed on a block-unit scale. Our results suggest that approximately 30% of submerged building may be washed away by tsunami inundation in the probabilistic hazard scenario and approximately 60% in the historical hazard scenario.

Description: After the nuclear meltdown incident at Tokyo Electric Power Company’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in March 2011, citizens are increasingly concerned about the adverse effects of radiation on health. Perception and anxiety about risks have been worsened by inaccurate news reports and a lack of information about the incident. In this research, newspaper headlines from March 2011 to January 2012 on the Fukushima incident were comprehensively collected and analyzed using text mining. Extracted data were also compared to information transmitted via social media such as Twitter during the same period to examine the following four issues related to features of the two types of transmission, i.e., newspaper headlines and social media, and the relationship between information from the media and anxieties about the adverse effects of radiation on health. 1) Over 10 months after the nuclear meltdown incident, the information most frequently provided by newspapers was that related to radiation measurement and surveys but providing few articles directly related to adverse effects of radiation on health. 2) Newspaper headlines combined multiple topics in short transmitted text while, at the same time, the limited information transmitted by social media was exaggerated. 3) Newspapers indirectly explained the adverse effects of radiation on health using concepts such as “danger/risk,” “safety,” “anxiety/dissatisfaction,” and “security.” 4) Many articles used the term “danger/risk” in March 2011 before the degree of radiation exposure had been evaluated reliably.

Description: This paper reviews recent studies on methods of realtime forecasting for near-field tsunamis that use either offshore tsunami data or onshore global navigation satellite system (GNSS) data. Tsunami early warning systems for near-field coastal communities are vital because evacuation time before tsunami arrival is usually very short. We focus on forecasting between the occurrence of a tsunamigenic earthquake and the arrival of the first tsunami at a near-field coast – typically a few tens of minutes or less after the earthquake. Offshore tsunami measurement that provides coastal communities with direct information on impending tsunamis is very effective in providing reliable tsunami predictions. Crustal deformation due to coseismic slips at an earthquake fault detected by real-time GNSS analysis is quite useful in estimating fault expansion and the amount of slip, which in turn contributes to timely tsunami warnings, e.g., within 10 minutes, even for huge interplate earthquakes. Our review encompasses methods on the leading edge of research and those already in the process of being applied practically. We also discuss an effective combination of methods developed for mitigating tsunami disasters.

Description: This paper concerns controversial risk communication issues related to emerging environmental and technological risks in postindustrial risk society. The interdisciplinary risk communication framework is set up to discuss communication issues originating in the high uncertainties and stakes involved in framing and evaluating scientific evidence attached to environmental risk events. Three controversial cases of risk communication – 1) the 1999 Amendment of Air Pollution Control Law, 2) dioxins as endocrine disruptors, and 3) EMF risks – are discussed based on an interdisciplinary risk communication framework focusing on communication issues in terms of “peer review,” “risk characterization,” and “precautionary approach.”

Description: In the developed countries including Japan, malignant tumor (cancer), heart disease and cerebral apoplexy are major causes of death, but infectious diseases still responsible for high mortality in the developing countries, especially for children less than 5 years of age. World Health Statistics published byWHO indicates a high percentage of mortality from infectious diseases such as HIV/AIDS, diarrhea, measles, malaria and pneumonia in children of South and Southeast Asian and African countries (World Health Statistics 2014,World Health Organization). Many of these infectious diseases have the potential for borderless transmission and invasion to Japan. Given this situation, Japan’s Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) introduced Phase I of a program “Founding Research Centers for Emerging and Reemerging Infectious Diseases,” running from fiscal 2005 to 2009 and involving 8 Japanese universities and 2 Japanese research centers. The program was established to: 1) Create of a domestic research structure to promote the accumulation of fundamental knowledge about infectious diseases, 2) Set up 13 overseas research collaboration centers in 8 countries at high risk of emerging and reemerging infections, Japanese researchers are stationed at these centers, where they conduct research in partnership with overseas instructors, 3) Develop a network among domestic and overseas research centers, 4) Develop human resources. The program, supervised by MEXT, and managed by the RIKEN Center of the Research Network for Infectious Diseases (Riken CRNID). Dr. Yoshiyuki Nagai, Program Director (PD), heads CRNID and is organizing the program. Phase II of the program was set up as the Japan Initiative for the Global Research Network on Infectious Diseases (J-GRID) and was established for fiscal 2010-2014. Participating universities, institutes and countries in J-GRID are as follows: Hokkaido University : Zambia Tohoku University : Philippines The University of Tokyo : China Tokyo Medical and Dental University : Ghana Osaka University : Thailand Kobe University : Indonesia Okayama University : India Nagasaki University : Vietnam Kenya (Associate*) Niigata University : Myanmar (Associate*) National Center for Global Health and Medicine : Vietnam National Institute of Animal Health : Thailand *Two associate members were involved in 2011. Each university and institute set up its collaborative research center in a country and conducts research on infectious diseases, especially typical regional diseases. The program’s outcome of each collaborative center is announced by the publication of various research papers or outreach programs, such as open lectures for citizens, and so on. The Asian-African Research Forum (AARF) on Infectious Disease organized by J-GRID is dedicated to reporting and discussing the research results of the collaborative research centers. Details and activities of J-GRID can be seen at http://www.crnid.riken.jp/jgrid/. The Figs. 1 and 2 show examples of the home page indicating the countries and the collaborative research institutes involved. J-GRID publishes the magazine entitled “Monthly CRNID,” which is available by mail upon request to “https://krs.bz/crnid/m?f=2&m=1110&t=8cdk&v=076691d2.” This publication contains various topical information on infectious diseases, such as research papers, newly announced news from WHO, overseas trip news, domestic infections, new drug developments, explanations, events, etc. Phase II will terminate on March 2015 (the end of FY 2014), and Phase III will begin in April 2015 at the start of the new FY. This special issue on J-GRID is being edited on the occasion of the final year of Phase II. The outlines of J-GRID and those of all the collaborative research centers are reviewed by Dr. Nagai, PD of CRNID, and the representatives of each respective collaborative center in this issue. Finally, I extend my sincere thanks to all authors and reviewers involved in this special issue.

Description: Following its two special issues on the March 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster, the Journal of Disaster Research is now publishing this third issue focusing on risk communication. The earthquake and tsunami killed over 20,000 people, destroyed houses, farmlands, and communities, and led to a large amount of radioactive materials being released from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. These materials contaminated the environment and foods and forced almost 160,000 people to be evacuated from the highly contaminated district. Ruined buildings are now being reconstructed and adversely affected farmland is being decontaminated. The victims remained concerned, however, about their future, especially those exposed to even very low-level radiation. Chernobyl’s Legacy: Health, Environmental and Socio-Economic Impacts, a landmark report released by the Chernobyl Forum in 2005, assessed the 20-year impact of the nuclear explosion at the Chernobyl power plant in 1986. One of its important findings was that 4,000 cases of thyroid cancer, mainly in children, had occurred but that except for nine deaths, all of the children recovered and that there was no evidence of any increase in the incidence of leukemia or cancer among affected residents. Such facts as these are not generally known, however, many health conditions have been erroneously attributed to radiation exposure and myths and misperceptions have persisted about the threat of radiation, resulting in a “paralyzing fatalism” among residents of affected areas. The Chernobyl report recommends developing new and innovative ways of risk communication to increase knowledge about the actual health effects of radiation and providing accurate information on the incident’s physical and mental health consequences. Over the last three years, experts in risk communication in Japan have continued working to disseminate scientifically accurate information about radiation. This issue discusses the current status and questions related to the incident.

Description: Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake and Nankai Trough Earthquakes predicted to hit Japan in the near future makes it urgent that the impact of urban earthquake disasters be reduced by every means possible. To promote research to this end, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) of Japan launched a Special Project for Reducing Vulnerability for UrbanMega Earthquake Disasters in 2012 as a five-year R&D effort embracing three academic disciplines – earth and physical sciences, structural engineering, and social sciences. This project in turn consists of three subprojects – Subproject on the earthquake hazard mechanism and risk evaluation of southern Kanto region, Subproject to develop rapid damage assessment and recovery technology of urban function, and Subproject to develop resilient society improving disaster management competence. This special issue features findings and achievements from this last subproject, whose goal is to enhance society’s resilience based on the experiences and lessons of the 1995 Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster that crippled Kobe, the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster that prostrated Japan’s northeastern Pacific coast and other such disasters. Concretely speaking, by integrating the wisdom of disaster management researchers nationwide and collaborating with other subprojects, this subproject proposes disseminating disaster information technologies and training methodologies to build up disaster preparedness. This, in turn, is aided by improving disaster literacy and competence among both the general public and disaster management personnel. Focusing on the three major metropolitan areas of Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka, where two-thirds of Japan’s population and three-fourths of the nation’s total assets are concentrated, Web-based disaster information management and dissemination services are being proposed and examined for effectiveness through demonstration experiments and social implementation. In this issue of JDR, we are introducing 11 papers and reports from researchers involved in this subproject to present initial interim findings and progress during the first half of this five-year effort. In doing so, the authors and editors of this issue gratefully acknowledge the generous financial support of MEXT in these studies.

Description: We have been studying the swine influenza virus (SIV) in Thailand since 2005, followed by a study in Vietnam starting in 2010. We actively survey pig farms in both countries to isolate viruses, collecting nasal swabs mainly from clinically healthy pigs. Our results demonstrate the genetic diversity of the SIV in both countries and help fill gaps in knowledge in global molecular SIV epidemiology.

Description: The epidemiological study of influenza in Southeast Asia is limited. We surveyed influenza in Myanmar from 2007 to 2013. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from patients in the two cities of Yangon and Nay Pyi Taw. Samples were screened using rapid influenza diagnostic kits and identified by virus isolation. Isolates were characterized by cyclingprobe-based real-time PCR, drug susceptibility assay, and sequencing. Samples collected numbered 5,173, from which 1,686 influenza viruses were isolated during the seven-year study period. Of these, 187 strains were of seasonal influenza A(H1N1), 274 of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 791 of influenza A(H3N2), and 434 of influenza B. Interestingly, two zanamivir and amantadine-resistant strains each were detected in 2007 and 2008. These rare dual-resistant strains had a Q136K mutation in the NA protein and S31N substitution in the M2 protein. Our collaboration raised the influenza surveillance laboratory capacity in Myanmar and led Yangon’s National Health Laboratory – one of the nation’s leading research institutes – to being designated a National Influenza Center by the World Health Organization.

Description: In Peru, the most commonly used structural system for housing construction is based on confined masonry walls. Solid engineered walls are regulated by the NTE-E070 standard, which lays down a required degree of earthquake resilience. However, around 60% of the population lives in non-engineered houses that use tubular blocks for their walls. This paper presents a comparison of the behaviors of non-engineered tubular block walls and solid engineered walls. Tests were performed on a tubular brick wall by subjecting it to horizontal cyclic loading to examine the effects under a constant axial load of 20 tf. Then, the test results were compared with those for walls in the CISMID Structural Lab database. The resistance of the tubular brick wall in terms of shear stress was found to be relatively low, having an average value of 4 kg/cm2, while the solid walls can withstand a shear stress in excess of 5.5 kg/cm2.

Description: A research collaboration project in Ghana has joined the MEXT program supported by the Japanese government since 2008. The Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research (NMIMR), the University of Ghana, and Tokyo Medical and Dental University (TMDU) are core parties in the project, and researchers from other institutions also participate temporarily. Two TMDU faculty members are sent to Ghana to manage and implement joint research projects for virology and parasitology, which cover HIV, African trypanosomes, malaria parasites, and vector insects. Along with joint research, mutual exchange activities for young researchers and students have been promoted to develop human resources in tropical infectious disease research. Subjects in our project are all public health concerns both in Ghana and West-Africa and in other parts of the world. Our joint projects have strengthened and promoted global information networks on infectious diseases and the health and welfare of the residents of Ghana and Japan.

Description: The study of community resilience observed in times of crisis has conventionally focused on the impact of external forces on sedentary and homogeneous communities embedded in specific ecological systems. Drawing on a qualitative case study of a rural community in northern Ghana, this paper reports that, even in a community of mostly small farmers, diversifying livelihoods is apparently a main coping strategy. This paper focuses on two, often overlooked, dimensions that underpin this livelihood diversification: mobility and gender. Mobility, the first dimension, indicates the work of livelihoods that develop outside the community such as the so-called “settler farming,” a variety of trading activities, and outmigration to cities. Gender, the second dimension, indicates cropping and commercial activities carried out differently by men and women. Both mobility and gender characterize diverse livelihood strategies, which evolve by enriching social relationships and extending networks. This paper argues that shedding light on social relationships and networks helps us to reframe the concept of community resilience from the community-based capacity of self-organization to the capacity of a flexible social system for being able to mobilize a wide variety of resources. Future research agendas must advance this understanding of resource mobilization in relation to ecological resilience and must clarify its technological and policy implications.

Description: Because the 2011 great Tohoku earthquake was accompanied by phenomena similar to those associated with the 869 Jogan earthquake, as reconstructed on the basis of historical and geological evidence, paleoseismology is recognized for its potential effectiveness in earthquake forecasting. In attempts to avoid such unexpected situations as the 2011 Tohoku event when taking disaster prevention measures, the Japanese government and local administrations announced a maximum class model for earthquakes and tsunamis that is not based on paleoseismological evidence. Thus, paleoseismologists must both inductively study the reconstruction of evidence fromthe past and deductively evaluate the maximum class earthquake and tsunami.

Description: I review a spatiotemporal evolution of slow-slip transients on the plate interface of the subducting Pacific plate that happened in and around the mainshock rupture area prior to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Based on foreshock activity before the mainshock, two sequences of slow-slip transients were identified by earthquake migrations toward the initiation point of the mainshock rupture. These two slow-slip transients were also detected by geodetic measurement. The second sequence of slow-slip transients, which involved large slip rates, may have caused significant stress loading onto the hypocenter of the mainshock and prompted the initiation of unstable dynamic rupture. In addition, decadal slip-behavior on the plate interface revealed by geodetic measurement and small repeating earthquakes show that slow-slip transients occurred in the down-dip and up-dip portions of the mainshock rupture area. These slow-slip transients imply the reduction of coupling between the subducting and overlying plates, that could be interpreted as the late stage of mega-thrust earthquake cycle, although this notion remains conjectural.

Description: This study, which is based on an online social survey, confirms that Japanese citizens after the Fukushima nuclear accident are willing to participate in both a national, random sampling deliberation on the management of nuclear power plant accidents or of nuclear waste and spent fuel as well as in local deliberations on disaster preparation. At the same time, citizen eagerness to join national public deliberations on decontamination and human support after the Fukushima accident is less than that of local disaster preparation. The personal damage experienced in the Fukushima accident enhanced the inclination to engage in national public discussions on nuclear related issues. The Japanese national government should continue random sampling-based deliberations on nuclear and energy policy (accident and waste), following the examples of local governments on local themes.

Description: In Japanese fiscal 2005, the Institute of Medical Science of the University of Tokyo (IMSUT) launched joint laboratory in each Institute of Biophysics (IBP) and Institute of Microbiology (IM) of Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing. Japanese investigators have resided in Beijing and been working together with young Chinese scientists. As the principal investigator of the joint laboratory in IBP, Dr. Zene Matsuda have focused on the membrane fusion process in HIV-1 infection and invented a remarkable assay systemto be used for the analysis of themembrane fusion. Dr. Yoshihiro Kitamura started the joint laboratory in IM and handed to Dr. Takaomi Ishida. The research in IM has focus on the epidemiology and molecular biology of HIV-1 and hepatitis viruses. The research in Beijing has been supervised by Dr. Tadashi Yamamoto and then by Dr. Junichiro Inoue. Highly productive collaboration between Dr. Yoshihiro Kawaoka and Dr. Hualan Chen has been producing cutting edge outcomes in the research on highly pathogenic avian viruses and their molecular epidemiology in China. The whole schema of the collaboration between Japan and China has been led by Dr. Aikichi Iwamoto.

Description: The notion of risk was introduced in Japanese academia in the 1970s. Following this initial period of interest, the Society for Risk Analysis, Japan, was launched in 1988, coinciding with the first study of “risk communication.” However, the concept was not widely embraced by the public at that time. This situation changed after the 1995 Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, and risk communication gradually came to be acknowledged in Japanese society. Following the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant incident ofMarch 11, 2011, a boom in risk communication occurred due to anxieties among residents about the possibility of low-level radiation exposure. Regrettably, however, the government’s risk communication system did not work well, and consequently, the general public did not know who or what to believe. Underlying this confusion, we can observe the differences between the “risk cultures” of Japan and the West. Thus, it remains to be seen in what manner Japanese people will come to accept risk communication.

Description: Communication is a primary challenge in response to natural and man-made disasters. The purpose of this study is to determine the forms of communications that played a critical role in disaster preparedness during the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami (Tohoku earthquake). The study used a case study research method and included six informants following the purposive sampling technique. Data was collected through unstructured in-depth interviews. The findings suggest that communication in all forms played a vital role in disaster preparedness. In the survivor’s view, however, the impact of broadcast media in establishing situational awareness was limited. Local disaster management efforts, such as, “on call,” or emergency measures, such as, personnel and trucks with communication systems, mobile phone alarms, and sirens were viewed by survivors as useful in transmitting unambiguous, specific messages in a demanding tsunami context. In particular, the study demonstrates that residents’ trust in risk/disaster related messages and mediums play vital roles in subsequent behaviour/response to natural disasters.

Description: Tsunami evacuation plans have been deliberately developed by local governments in coastal areas in Japan under guidance from the national government since before the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011. These plans, however, do not mention the time required for all local residents to evacuate to evacuation areas. This paper reports a procedure to design an effective tsunami safe town planning using multi-agent simulator (MAS) which identify a degree of evacuation risk in objective area. A case study is applied to one of the worst hit town of tsunami, in which additional facilities such as evacuation areas, safe buildings, and evacuation routes are proposed as well.

Description: Buildings are checked after disasters for such diverse factors as building safety, disaster victim relief application and insurance claim payment. Visual evaluation by different inspectors used in these types of inspection to ascertain and assess the extent of damage tends to lead to variations in results. Fairness is especially called for in the inspection of building damage for victim relief conducted by local government officials, because results are one criterion for providing access to relief programs for such victims. Japan’s revised Disaster Countermeasures Basic Act clearly stipulates that local governments must train inspectors in damage assessment during normal times, usually once a year at most. This training has consisted mainly of studying inspection criteria and procedures in the context of classroom lectures. Problems have been pointed out with this training, e.g., that trainees acquire knowledge on building damage inspection but have little opportunity for gaining practical learning experience. This paper describes the training system we developed based on learning experience in which the trainee experiences the procedural flow of assessing an entire actual building. As the first step, a detailed inspection was done on a house in Ojiya, Niigata prefecture, which was damaged in the 2004 Niigata Chuetsu earthquake. The condition of the house was checked and the records were incorporated into a database. Inspection records were then analyzed and assessed using assessment criteria for damage certification provided by the Japanese government’s Cabinet Office and established as detailed model solutions. Records of damage status and model solutions were input to tablet PCs and building damaged conditions reconstructed. In practical training sessions, trainees used these tablet PCs to inspect damage to different parts of the building, input results, and compared their own assessment results to model solutions. This system was used in training programs conducted for local government officials and its effectiveness discussed. The learning process involved in training was thus implemented so that trainees acquired knowledge, experienced the procedural flow of damage assessment using an actual building, and compared their results to detailed model solutions to identify their errors and examine causes.

Description: The characteristics of secular changes in M2tidal amplitude in the East China Sea and the effect of projected sea level rise on tide amplitude were studied. Based on measurement data analysis, it was clarified that rapid sea level rise and M2tidal amplitude decrease had been observed at observatories that face the East China Sea around 1998. The change in M2tidal amplitude of the East China Sea by sea level rise was then studied in numerical experiments. And results showed that tidal amplitude increased on the west coast of the Korean Peninsula and the Taiwan Strait. A similar study was conducted for the Yatsushiro Sea and the Ariake Sea, which showed the highest M2tidal amplitude in Japan. As a result, it was found that M2tidal amplitude increased in the whole bays, which was against resonance tide theory. It was shown that mean sea level rise and M2tidal amplitude increase and decrease affected by sea level rise must be considered when predicting the risk of seashore disaster by global warming.

Description: Public fire insurance has recently appeared in China. The basis for calculating the premium is the accurate measurement of Publicliability risk in fire. The generalized linear model (GLM) is widely used for measuring this risk in practice, but the GLM often cannot be satisfied, especially in fat-tailed distribution. A nonparametric Gaussian kernel linear model used to improve the GLM is applied to measure publicliability risk in fire, yielding a favorable effect. Results show three major risk factors that were measured precisely – the nature of the industry, the scale of public places and the level of fire precaution.

Description: The concept we propose for a disaster management literacy hub (DMLH) involves systemizing and generalizing disaster management literacy (DML) and discussing how to design such a DMLH where the general public and disaster responders share materials on DML. In the early 21stcentury, measures against large-scale earthquakes should essentially include both hardware disaster mitigation measures like the construction of appropriate structures and software measures like disaster preparedness among people and organizations such as the general public, disaster responders and related organizations. We define knowledge about disaster response management and competency as DML. Our analysis of documents on the incident command system (ICS), an emergency response system under the United States Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), found 56 positions of disaster responders in ICS defined by 35 actions required for four types of disaster response competency. The above analysis led us to propose that DML consist of three elements: knowledge for learning about disaster management and mitigation, skills required for effective disaster response, and basic competency and attitudes for coping with disasters. For conceptual DMLH design based on the Instructional Design (ID), we propose three types of learning:1 The general public and disaster responders learn audiovisually using training videos and materials and review tests on learn from videos.2 People who want to provide education and training at schools or in regions or municipalities with school teacher guidance/teaching plans learn how to do so.3 People learn DML by posting or searching for (collecting and arranging) materials.We discuss how to publish such learning programs, taking as a specific example a life reconstruction support system (to put disaster victims’ lives back in order) based on victims’ master database.

Description: J-GRID is an undertaking to enhance international research collaboration across national borders, which has been commissioned by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) to Japanese universities and research institutions. The undertaking includes the construction of bilateral collaboration centers in the counterpart countries and their networking. As the headquarters of this network, Center of Research Network for Infectious Diseases (CRNID) was set up at RIKEN. Since its initiation in 3 countries in FY2005, J-GRID has expanded to include 13 research collaboration centers in 8 countries (6 in Asia and 2 in Africa). J-GRID was highly appreciated as an ideal model of Japan’s science and technology diplomacy and an important platform to mitigate the risk of infectious diseases in the counterpart countries, our own country and the world. Recently, the Japanese government decided to create a new funding and managing body named Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development (AMED), which is expected to start in 2015. The AMED selected 9 special topics of high priority. One of them is “The Control of Emerging and Reemerging Infectious Diseases” and J-GRID is expected to enhance research capacity and make a great deal of contribution in this scheme. Here, I look back on the 10 years journey of J-GRID development since its initiation and discuss the future perspective.

Description: The Institute of Tropical Medicine Kenya Research Station of Nagasaki University (NUITM) was established in 2005 with Japan’s Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) funds. The station involves clinical and epidemiological research programs focusing on tropical medicine and emerging infectious diseases based on education and research exchanges between Africa and Japan. This project is supported by about 22 Japanese staff members, including short-termers, in addition to 85 Kenyan staff members. It has at least 12 research groups studying the prevention of tropical and emerging diseases in collaboration with stakeholder institutions. The station also implements a JICA grassroots technical cooperation project since 2012. In April 2010, the Nagasaki University Africa Research Station was incorporated into the Kenya Research Station, enabling other faculties to conduct research in Kenya. The Nagasaki University School of Dentistry then started an oral health survey in Mbita and the Schools of Fisheries, Engineering, and Health Sciences have started joint research projects conserving and managing Lake Victoria basin water and fishery resources. Our aim is to develop a foundation enabling researchers from all different fields to conduct research for improving local community health and living standards. The NUITM was invited to become an associate member of the Japan Initiative for Global Research Network on Infectious Diseases (J-GRID) in 2011.

Description: Disaster Risk Management (DRM) laws and policies ideally contain measures to reduce disaster risk to all exposed people equally, even the most vulnerable people. To investigate this, we estimate the number of potentially vulnerable people in areas exposed to flood hazard, and evaluate the laws and policies which aim to reduce vulnerability. We proposed a theoretical framework based on four recognized characteristics of vulnerability (less physically or mentally capable; fewer material and/or financial resources; less access to information, and restricted by commitments) and created indicators for six groups of potentially vulnerable people: children, older adults, minorities, people with disabilities, people living in poverty, and women. We applied the framework to the populations of Japan, the Netherlands, and the United States, and proposed a new DRM policy evaluation method; and found that measures in DRM laws and policies are not in proportion to the number of potentially vulnerable people. The most numerous indicators included children aged 0-14, women with no car, and people with pets. The top ten indicators account for 80% of all potentially vulnerable people. When addressing the needs of vulnerable people from a policy perspective, these top ten indicators may serve as a starting point in order to increase the resilience of the vulnerable population. Seven of these ten are identical across the three case study countries, meaning the countries can learn from each other’s measures and possibly apply them in their own area. Policy evaluation showed that while many laws and policies do recognize various groups of potentially vulnerable people, they lack detailed support measures. Much remains to be amended in policies on all scale levels if the policies are to realize an equal disaster risk for all exposed people.

Description: This paper examines the effects of agricultural research expenditure and climate change on agricultural productivity growth by region in Ghana. A panel dataset is constructed for 2000-2009 from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; the Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Ghana; and the Agriculture Science and Technology Indicators (ASTI) database of the International Food Policy Research Institute. A Malmquist index was used to compute agricultural productivity growth, including decomposition components efficiency change and technical change. The determinants of productivity growth are examined using a fixed effects regression model. The results specify that significant causal factors impact positively on Ghana’s agricultural productivity growth, include climate variability, infrastructure, and agricultural research and development expenditure. The study confirms there is a need to strengthen and develop new technological progress for sustainable agricultural production in Ghana.

Description: Pisco was the area most damaged by the 2007 Peru earthquake. The purpose of this research is to develop possibilities of using satellite imagery to monitor postdisaster urban recovery processes, focusing on the urban change in Pisco between 2007 and 2011. To this end, the authors carried out field surveys in the city in 2012 and 2013 and also examined previous surveys to determine that building reconstruction peaked between 2008 and 2009. After analyzing the five-year recovery process, the authors compared its reconstruction conditions by visual interpretation with those by image analysis using satellite image. An accuracy of 71.2% was achieved for the visual interpretation results in congested urban areas, and that for developed districts was about 60%. The result shows that satellite imagery can be a useful tool for monitoring and understanding post-disaster urban recovery processes in the areas in which conducting long-term field survey is difficult.

Description: The Japanese and Peruvian experimental databases on confined brick masonry walls are put together as one database, and the strength and deformation of the walls are reviewed. First, the applicability of existing equations for the ultimate strength of reinforced concrete or reinforced masonry walls to the estimation of the maximum strength of confined brick masonry walls which failed in shear, flexural-shear, or flexure when subjected to lateral forces, is discussed. Then, empirical equations for the maximum strength, displacement at maximum strength, and ultimate state of the walls are proposed based on multiple regression analysis, and the accuracy of the proposed equations is discussed. It is concluded that the maximum strength can be estimated using the existing equations or the proposed empirical equations with good accuracy. The deformations at maximum strength and the ultimate state can be estimated using the proposed empirical equations, although there is a large amount of scatter.

Description: Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) conducted an online survey in 2011 to determine the extent of the business continuity management (BCM) status of its 21member economies in the private sector. The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) adopted the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (HFA) with several priorities for action (PFA) with the objective of reducing vulnerability and increasing disaster resiliency. This paper considers which subjects of PFA in HFA are important for enhancing the BCM status of the private sector together with APEC survey output in 2011.

Description: In the six years since the Tohoku-RITM Collaborating Research Center was established, the center has been working on major infectious diseases in the Philippines and conducting molecular and epidemiological studies from a public health perspective. Its target diseases include pneumonia, diarrhea, and rabies, which are a major public health problem in the Philippines. Some studies have also been conducted on emerging and re-emerging infections significantly impacting both on the Philippines and on other countries. In November 2013, typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) hit the Visayas, where one of our research areas is located. The center responded immediately and helped assess and diagnose infectious diseases, based on our experience of Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011.

Description: Chemical related risk analysis and communication were discussed in connection with the role of risk assessment. Some of the chemicals are thought to be one of the hazards that tend to consider as dread and unknown risk. Owing to the institutionalization of Pollutant Release Transfer Register (PRTR) and development of risk assessment have gradually revealed new aspect of risk analysis and communication. In this review, we briefly discuss about the representative cases and discuss the role of risk assessment to risk communication.

Description: Masonry is one of the most common structural materials used to build houses in the city of Lima, Peru. The structural features of this material and its components vary widely, however, due to the manufacturing process, which uses bricks and aggregates and different levels of labor. This paper presents experimental results realized using bricks, prism and wallettes to determine the mechanical properties of masonry.

Description: The 2011 Tohoku mega-thrust earthquake caused huge crustal deformation over a wide are of Mainland Japan. Many mega-thrust earthquakes worldwide have triggered volcanic eruptions nearby, and it is assumed that stress changes due to the Tohoku earthquake resulted in a perturbation to the magma system. The objectives of our study is to evaluate this perturbation quantitatively and to analyze the mechanism of the interaction between mega-thrust earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. This paper focuses on quasi-static stress change due to viscous relaxation of a source region and the surrounding area.

Description: An effective initial response immediately after disaster strikes is not easy to provide when human and material resources and information are lacking. The purpose of this study is to achieve effective initial response activities immediately after disaster strikes, and it analyzes the initial responses taken by the government of the town of Yabuki, Fukushima Prefecture in the case of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake. Disaster responses taken in the first five days after the disaster struck Yabuki are discussed in this paper. As a result, we have found that many staff members were deployed to nonregular works, such as food service, water service, and the sorting and transporting of materials, that could have been done even without town government staff members. To effectively deploy about all Yabuki staff members and conduct disaster response activities, it is necessary to classify the difficulty level of tasks, identify what each task entails, and then allocate the necessary resources to those tasks.

Description: Confined masonry walls represent one of the most widely used construction systems for dwellings in Peru and other Latin countries. This study describes the procedure for implementing a database with a web interface of results collected from the experiments conducted over the years by the Japan Center for Earthquake Engineering and Disaster Mitigation. This paper attempts to contribute to the seismic design procedure of this type of structure, and parameters such as stiffness ratios and the deformation (drift) for the characteristic stages of confined masonry walls under different limit states or performance levels are proposed. Also, a semi-empirical equation for estimating the shear capacity using the database is proposed.

Description: The Center for Infectious Diseases (CID), Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, has led an Asia-related medical research program for over 50 years. The Japan Initiative for Global Research Network on Infectious Diseases (J-GRID) established the Indonesia-Kobe University Collaborative Research Center for Emerging and Reemerging Infectious Diseases (CRC-FRID), which is staffed by Japanese researchers from the CID, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, and Indonesian researchers from the Institute of Tropical Disease (ITD) of Airlangga University, Surabaya, Indonesia. There they focus on five disease types – influenza, infectious hepatitis, dengue fever, HIV/AIDS, and infectious diarrheal diseases – in collaborative research. This paper summarizes research results for these 5 diseases as published in previous papers.

Description: Ground motion from theMw9.0 March 11, 2011, Off-Tohoku earthquake recorded by dense seismic networks in Japan, K-NET and KiK-net, clearly demonstrated the high-frequency seismic wavefield radiating from the earthquake source and developing longperiod ground motion in sedimentary basins. The photographic sequence of the visualized wavefield demonstrated the process in which the high-frequency seismic waves radiated from large slips at the top of the subducting Pacific Plate at relatively deeper depth of 25-50 km, which caused multiple large shocks of large (〉1000-2000 cm/s2) ground acceleration and several minutes lasting ground motions over a wide area along the Pacific Ocean side of northern Japan. An efficient seismic wave propagation along the subducting Pacific slab and ground motion amplification in a superficial thin low-velocity layer overlying rigid bedrock also enhanced high-frequency (〉5 Hz) ground motions very drastically. However, the dominant frequency of the strong ground motion recorded in nearfield station was too high such as to cause serious damage to wooden-frame residences having relatively longer-period resonance period (T= 1-2 s); The velocity response in this frequency band was only about one third to one half of those observed in severely damaged area during the destructiveMw6.9 1995 Kobe earthquake. The 2011 Off-Tohoku earthquake also produced long-period ground motion in sedimentary basins such those at Tokyo’s population center but observation of the long-period ground motion withinT=6-8 s was rather weak and of a level comparable to that of anM7.9 Tonankai earthquake occurring along the Nankai Trough in 1944. This was because the surface wave in this period band was not generated efficiently by the relatively deeper slip over the source fault of the Off-Tohoku earthquake.

Description: The Yura River in northern Kyoto Prefecture has long caused flood problems in its drainage basin. Specifically, areas downstream from Ayabe, where the river comes down from mountainous regions to a basin, frequently suffered from inundations, e.g., the Disaster Relief Law was applied eight times in the 60 years from 1953 to 2013. Against those background, river development projects, including levee construction and channel dredging, have been well underway since the late 1950s. The Ohno dam upstream on the main river was completed in 1961. However, the degree of flood safety remained low at that time. In 2004, the heaviest flood in the 50 years since 1953 occurred, followed in 2013 by a massive flood recording the highest water level since observations began at Fukuchiyama. The 2013 flood occurred in the midst of urgent levee construction and land raising based on a river infrastructure development project begun in response to a 2004 flood. This paper outlines damage from floods in 2004 and 2013 and shows the effects of these floods on the inundation depth of levees under development and the effects of the difference in rainfall characteristics in 2004 and 2013 on flood and fine sediment runoff. The effectiveness of the Ohno dam and misunderstandings by residents of the dam are also described. Important points in promoting river development from hard and soft measure are presented for making use of experiences the two disaster in the future.

Description: The seismic vulnerability of buildings located in Pisco, Peru, was studied using damage survey data and seismic ground motion simulation. Inventory and damage information for more than 10,000 buildings was registered in survey data compiled by CISMID at Peru’s National University of Engineering. The soil classes in the Pisco district were classified into three zones based on the predominant periods of microtremors at 85 sites, and damage ratios were calculated for each zone. Surface ground motions in each zone were estimated on the basis of base-rock motion simulation and shallow soil-column response analysis. Finally, fragility curves for adobe and brickmasonry buildings were derived in terms of PGA and PGV. The results were compared with fragility functions developed in other studies.

Description: The actual behavior of thin RC wall high-rise buildings during an earthquake in Lima, Peru, and the associated seismic loss is unknown. This type of building was assessed done using analytical fragility functions. The numerical model was based on full-scale tests done in Lima, Peru. Nonlinear dynamic response analysis was performed using records simulated for Lima. The damage ratio was estimated for four damage states and fragility functions were obtained assuming that the damage ratio followed log-normal distributions. Seismic performance was evaluated by considering the probability of different damage states for three seismic hazard levels. It was found that highrise buildings present a low probability of collapse in severe earthquakes.

Description: Even though detailed building inventory data are necessary for estimating earthquake damage reliably, most developing countries do not have sufficient data for such estimations. This necessitates a way for finding building distribution and feature easily. In this study for estimating the number of households in all building categories of different structures or floor numbers in Lima, Peru, where a great earthquake is expected, we propose an estimation method based on existing GIS data from a census, satellite imagery, and building data from field surveys, and apply it to estimate the entire area of Lima for create building inventory data. Building fragility functions were used to calculate a severe damage ratio of buildings due to the expected earthquake. The rate was multiplied by created building inventory data to estimate the number of households in damaged buildings. Furthermore we clarified damage reduction by retrofitting for low earthquake-resistant buildings.

Description: This paper discusses the development and implementation of the web-based geo-spatial information sharing and integration system that advances the multidisciplinary researches on the processes and impacts of mega-disaster. The mega-disasters predicted in Japan, such as Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake or Nankai Trough Earthquake Tsunami, bring huge amount of damage and loss in various sectors and various regions, and the scenarios of damage occurrence and loss propagation are very complex. Hence, in order to quantify each problem to create disaster reduction strategies, it is very important to share and integrate data and findings across many disciplines and regions. In this point of view, we are developing the Urban Resilience Geoportal as the sharing site of research findings. In this paper, we discuss the concept of such system focusing on the accumulation and sharing of multidisciplinary data, the integration of damage and loss quantification methods, the collaboration with other disaster information systems, and the utilization of data to create new findings.

Description: Two torrential downpours hit Amami-Ohshima Island in 2010 and 2011 and affected the administration of chronic dialysis treatments. The 2010 Amami Torrential Downpour in particular created communication and transportation breakdown. The communication blackout, which affected the emergency communication system of the local administrative damage control organization, hindered contact between dialysis centers and patients. The disrupted patient transfer system forced local and national government to take emergency measures and provide rescue services. The 2011 Amami South Area Torrential Downpour caused similar problems. The reallocation of patients and the adaptation of dialysis schedules appeared to solve the transportation problems. The use of a satellite phone was suggested to resolve the communication problem. New psychiatric complications were also identified. Local dialysis disaster relief should be established in advance in disaster-prone areas. Lessons learned from various disasters should translate into better preparedness.

Description: Concerns are growing against the increasing strength of typhoons, the increasing severity of damage caused by floods and storm surges, the increased incidence of landslide damage, the increasing risk of drought, etc., attributed to the effect of global warming. As natural disaster hazard attributed to climate change intensifies drastically, the capacity to prevent disaster is weakening due to degrading infrastructure and an aging population, with a large gap beginning to appear between the two. We have not sufficiently understood such disasters brought by intensifying natural disaster hazards, and in fact may constitute a greater threat than we can imagine. Focusing on the dry dam as a flood control measure that can coexist with the environment, this study discusses new functions of the dry dam and new ways to employ it in coordination with conventional dams, proposing these measures as an effective adaptation against flood and sedimentation disasters that will continue to intensify in the future.

Description: The handling of the accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant (FNPP) operated by Tokyo Electric Power Company further underscores the importance of clear risk communication. The quality of risk communication during this crisis and in its aftermath was evaluated, however, as unsatisfactory by the government, the massmedia, and experts to date. Risk communication problems are divided into those derived from risk and those derived from communication. A lack of skill in communicating the risks involved was major point raised concerning the present situation, but we also face difficulty in informing the general public of radiation risks due to insufficient communication about these risks, a lack of education about radiation before the accident, the uncertainty of risks assessed as due to low-dose radiation, and confusion regarding knowledge about radiation effects and policy for protecting ourselves from radiation. These problems are specific to radiation and cannot be solved by communication skills alone. In this paper, I summarize concepts of radiation protection, low-dose radiation risk assessment, and the Japanese population’s recognition of radiation related to actual and potential risk communication problems about radiation. I will also briefly examine the actual problems of crisis, care, and consensus communication in response to the FNPP accident. These are categorized as either radiation-specific or general problems to discuss the elements needed to solve risk communication problems problems.

Description: During the last fifty years, the city of Lima has experienced an immigration process that has led to the urbanization of the Andean foothills surrounding the capital. With the aim of analyzing the dynamic response of these new populated places, a target area in a district called Independencia is chosen. Seven microtremor array measurements are carried out at different points on the flat level and along the slope in order to evaluate the variation in the depth of the bedrock. In addition, a seismometer is installed on the slope with the objective of determining if amplification due to topography exists in the area of study.

Description: This paper discusses emergency response information processing. Information collection and summarization techniques are discussed based on case studies of real emergency responses in Japan, such as that during the March 11, 2011, Tohoku Earthquake. The emergency operation center (EOC) layout made it possible to share information effectively, as is discussed together with a format for summarizing emergency response operations.

Description: The present study examines how post-disaster local collaboration towards effective power savings was accomplished in the summer of 2012 at the household level in the Japanese cities in Yokohama and Kawasaki following a major earthquake. A framework was developed to evaluate the local communities’ capacity for stakeholder collaboration. Results of a survey were analysed statistically to determine the emergence of citizens’ voluntary information sharing, as well as the effects of a local governmental campaign and powersaving education at the workplace, on actual powersaving practices at the household level by local residents. Proactive citizens shared the relevant information and adopted effective and enduring powersaving practices. Some citizens were also responsive to the call for power saving by local government and adopted effective power-saving practices. The residential power-saving education at the workplace was shown to have resulted in more effective and rational power-saving practices being carried out at the household level.

Description: The author here shares his vision of next-generation models for seismic soil-structure interaction (SSI) analysis. These models should combine reasonable considerations of wave effects in half-infinite soil with a correct representation of nonlinearity in the structure, and in both the so-called near field, i.e., in that part of soil near a base mat, and in the soil-structure contact surface. The far field, i.e., all of the soil except for the near field, is treated as a linear horizontally layered medium, as is currently done in the well-known program SASSI. The importance of considering nonlinear effects even in very stiff structures like NPPs was shown by the March 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake that hit northeastern Japan’s Pacific coast. Although the idea of calculating SSI wave effects in the time domain has been around for several decades ago, current NPP design practices are linear. Next-generation SSI models should enable practical time-domain analysis. The author suggests a road map – the sequence of problems to be solved to achieve a proposed level. Some of these problems have already been solved, at least in principle, but other solutions are yet to be found. The author describes the current status of his research and ideas about implementing modern computational techniques such as parallel computation.

Description: Dynamical downscaling (DDS), in which a regional atmospheric model (RAM) experiment nested into coarser-resolution data provides a spatio-temporal fine dataset for a particular region, was performed to assess the present climate in Ghana. The DDS successfully evaluated realistic seasonal march and inter-annual variability in rainfall, in comparison with gauge and satellite observation. The DDS also indicated that land-lake and land-sea circulation interacted with the West African monsoon likely characterized the local climate in Ghana.

Description: Paleotsunami studies have shown that several large tsunamis hit the Pacific coast. Many tsunami deposit data were available for the 17thcentury tsunami. The most recent tsunami deposit study in 2013 indicated that the large slip of about 25 m along the plate interface near the Kurile trench would be necessary and the seismic moment of this 17thcentury earthquake was 1.7 × 1022Nm. If a great earthquake like the 17thcentury earthquake occurs off the Pacific coast of Hokkaido, the devastating disaster along the coast is expected. To minimize the tsunami disaster, a development of the real-time forecast of a tsunami inundation area is necessary. Estimating a tsunami inundation area requires tsunami numerical simulation with a very fine grid system of less than 1 arcsecond. There is not enough time to compute the tsunami inundation area after a large earthquake occurs. In this study, we develop a real-time tsunami inundation forecast method using a database including many tsunami inundation areas previously computed using various fault models. After great earthquakes, tsunamis are computed using linear long-wave equations for fault models estimated in real time. Simulating such tsunamis takes only 1-3 minutes on a typical PC, so it is potentially useful for forecasting tsunamis. Tsunami inundation areas computed numerically using various fault models and tsunami waveforms at several locations near the inundation area are stored in a database. Those computed tsunami waveforms are used to choose the most appropriate tsunami inundation area by comparing them to the tsunami waveforms computed in real time. This method is tested at Kushiro, a city in Hokkaido. We found that the method worked well enough to forecast the Kushiro’s tsunami inundation area.

Description: Many people were injured or otherwise suffered during evacuation or on their way home in the Greater Tokyo Area during the 2011 East Japan (Tohoku) Earthquake. One lesson from this disaster was that they had to decide what was best based on their individual attribute. However, we have no supporting tool for them to decide their appropriate behavior, so we designed and developed an information provision system, based on a micromedia concept, that features (i) using logs of their location logs, and (ii) introducing spatial data mashup method to abstract information based on individual user needs. We then implemented our prototype application and got reviews from 64 users. As the result of evaluation to our system from 64 users, most of them accepted the concept of micromedia, but pointed out issues about spatial layers management, personal information treatment and how to express information.

Description: Building data, such as footprint and height, are important information for pre- and post-event damage assessments when natural disasters occur. However, these data are not easily available in many countries. Because of the remarkable improvements in radar sensors, high-resolution (HR) Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images can provide detailed ground surface information. Thus, it is possible to observe a single building using HR SAR images. In this study, a new method is developed to detect building heights automatically from two-dimensional (2D) geographic information system (GIS) data and a single HR TerraSAR-X (TSX) intensity image. A building in a TSX image displays a layover from the actual position to the direction of the sensor, because of the side-looking nature of the SAR. Since the length of the layover on a ground-range SAR image is proportional to the building height, it can be used to estimate this height. We shift the building footprint obtained from 2D GIS data toward the sensor direction. The proposed method was applied to a TSX image of Lima, Peru in the HighSpot mode with a resolution of about 1 m. The results were compared with field survey photos and an optical satellite image, and a reasonable level of accuracy was achieved.

Description: After the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, local governments in six prefectures produced their own post-tsunami urban recovery plans. The authors collected 50 recovery plans from the Internet from May 2012 to March 2014 to study their contents and planning processes. This paper focuses on post-tsunami recovery-planning situations, clarifying the following: (1) Features of damaged areas are clarified regarding population and area size. (2) Individual local government planning processes for making recovery plans, including the number of committee members and time period, are demonstrated, (3) Recovery plan contents such as concreteness and strategies for relocating to higher lands are analyzed.

Description: During the 2011 Earthquake off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku, high acceleration records with a PGA of 2.7 G were reported at the K-NET Tsukidate station (MYG004), where a maximum seismic intensity of 7 on the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) scale was observed. However, no major damage to the wooden houses in the area surrounding the station was reported. The objectives of this study are to obtain a 2D shallow soil profile of the area around the Tsukidate strong motion station (MYG004) located on the top of a 5 m cliff, and also to provide basic material for a detailed understanding of the high accelerations during the earthquake. We conducted a seismic refraction survey west of the station, and we used a fullwaveform inversion of the acquired seismic data to retrieve a 2D shallow soil profile. The inverted 2D soil model underlines a clear lateral S-wave velocity variation in the surface layer, and comparisons to results of the microtremor measurements using an array and horizontal-to-vertical ratio conducted along the seismic survey line show significant similarities to the lateral velocity variation revealed by our 2D inversion. We also examined the effect of this lack of velocity homogeneity on the soil response, and we found that it could play an important role in amplifying the content of the high frequencies.

Description: Appropriate mitigationmeasures are not always taken even if individuals perceive a high risk of a natural disaster; therefore, merely sharing information on the degree of risk is insufficient when communicating the true danger in a situation. Which aspects should be taken into account in designing a risk communication program against natural disasters? This article reviews this issue based on findings of risk perception studies and theories of social psychology. The focus was placed upon four topics in addressing the link between risk perception and preparedness for action: (1) perceived efficacy of recommendedmitigation measures, (2) trust in risk managers, (3) direct or indirect experience of the disaster, and (4) use of heuristics. This article also addressed the social aspects of human nature in disasters. Immediately after 2011 Tohoku earthquake shocks subsided, mobile phone communication was disabled by the sudden and extremely high demand of users attempting to contact significant others. Emergency evacuation systems, therefore, must be designed with an allowance for the social nature of people trying to confirm the safety of others even when this may conflict with immediate evacuation requirements. The development of an information environment which enables residents to evacuate rapidly, based on psychological findings and advanced technology, was finally discussed.

Description: Investigation reports of Fukushima nuclear disaster have been analyzed with emphasis on deriving deeper understanding of factors contributed to the disaster. Through the present analysis, lack of convincing risk communication to citizens has been identified as the main factor. Some proposals have been made to improve the risk communication concerning nuclear technology.

Description: This study analyzes Japanese management of international assistance, focusing on the role of search and rescue teams based on lessons learned from the response to the March 11, 2011, Great East Japan Earthquake. It first reexamines lessons collected from different sources. Applying root cause analysis to them, it then explores why the system did not perform as expected and what causes were responsible for such performance. Identified root causes include: a reactive approach to international assistance, a lack of operational management coverage, a lack of stakeholder involvement – especially at the local level, insufficient preparation for difficult or sensitive issues, and deviation from international standards and practices. The study then implements comparative analysis by applying a set of selected benchmarks to examine the strengths and weaknesses of the Japanese system compared to selected leading practices of other nations. Results of analysis identified areas requiring improvement and provided ideas on how to improve the system. The study also suggests ways to improve the system’s nature and scope, its content, and its management structure.

Description: The National Center for Global Health and Medicine at J-GRID’s bases in Vietnam studies healthcareassociated infections caused by multiple-drugresistant bacteria, which have become an issue in southeast Asian countries. As a pilot study in a single facility, we retrospectively investigated blood culture status and results. From reports over the four years from 2009 to 2012, we counted 45,366 blood cultures. The sampling frequency was 9.59 blood cultures per 1,000 patient-days. Blood culture results in 2009 showed that 16 samples (1.3%) tested positive for Pseudomonas aeruginosa and 37 (3.0%) for Acinetobacter sp., two strains known to often cause medical infections. This study showed the possibility of obtaining the appropriate number of blood cultures and characteristic of isolated bacteria in Vietnam in the future.

Description: Northern Ghana is becoming vulnerable to risks induced by climate change. There is an urgent need to improve communities’ ability to cope by implementing risk-preventive measures at the household and community levels. However, studies have shown that the existing risk communication system often fails to encourage the people to implement risk-preventive measures because community concerns are not seriously taken in the adaptation planning and management process. The present study systematically examines community concerns about existing risks and possible adaptation strategies by conducting group meetings in four rural communities in the Wa West District. Results show that local communities consider drought or water scarcity to be the most severe risk from climate change because it is directly affecting their livelihood, which ismainly rain-fed subsistence agriculture. As their livelihood is increasingly affected by drought, the local communities are becoming more exposed to floods and other natural calamities. Presently, the climate change adaptation strategies of the local communities are weak and ineffective. It is found that improved irrigation facilitated by rainwater harvesting, watershed management, and seasonal weather forecasting are the preferred adaption strategies. Though a high level of intention to adopt non-structural preventive measures is observed, local communities report that a lack of knowledge and insufficient financial resources aremajor impediments to their implementation.

Description: The location of Lima city and El Callao in the Pacific coast and the long history of seismic activity were the main reasons to develop a seismic microzoning map. The microzoning study was based on large numbers of geotechnical and geophysical exploration points distributed around the study area. The geotechnical exploration consisted of borehole tests and pits, from which soil samples were taken to the laboratory to determine the soil mechanical characteristics. The geophysical exploration consisted of onepoint microtremor measurements and various methods to estimate the S-wave velocity profile. The results of both, the geotechnical and geophysical exploration were combined to develop a seismic microzoning map for Lima city and El Callao. This map shows five zones, where the zone with the best soil mechanical and dynamic characteristics covers most of the study area.

Description: This paper assesses the impact of climate change in the Black Volta River by using data output from the atmospheric general circulation model with a 20-km resolution (AGCM20) through the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). The Black Volta, which flows mainly in Burkina Faso and Ghana in West Africa, is a major tributary of the Volta River. The basin covers 142,056 km2 and has a semi-arid tropical climate. Before applying AGCM20 output to a rainfall–runoff model, the performance of the AGCM20 rainfall data is investigated by comparing it with the observed rainfall in the Black Volta Basin. To assess the possible impact of rainfall change on river flow, a kinematic wave model, which takes into consideration saturated and unsaturated subsurface soil zones, was performed. The rainfall analysis shows that, the correlation coefficient of the monthly rainfall between the observed rainfall and AGCM20 for the present climate (1979–2004) is 0.977. In addition, the analysis shows that AGCM20 overestimates precipitation during the rainy season and underestimates the dry season for the present climate. The analysis of the AGCM20 output shows the precipitation pattern change in the future (2075–2099). In the future, precipitation is expected to increase by 3%, whereas evaporation and transpiration are expected to increase by 5% and by 8%, respectively. Also, daily maximum rainfall is expected to be 20 mm, or 60%, higher. Thus, the future climate in this region is expected to be more severe. The rainfall–runoff simulation is successfully calibrated at the Bamboi discharge gauging station in the Black Volta fromJune 2000 to December 2000 with 0.72 of the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency index. The model is applied with AGCM20 outputs for the present climate (1979–2004) and future climate (2075–2099). The results indicate that future discharge will decrease from January to July at the rate of the maximum of 50% and increase fromAugust to December at the rate of the maximumof 20% in the future. Therefore, comprehensive planning for both floods and droughts are urgently needed in this region.

Description: Studies using spaceborne interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) analysis showed that two megathrust earthquakes – the 2011Mw9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake in Japan and the 2010Mw8.8Maule earthquake in Chile – triggered unprecedented subsidence in multiple volcanoes. There are strong similarities in the characteristics of the surface deformation in Japan and Chile: (1) Maximum subsidence is about 15 cm. (2) Areas of subsidence are elliptically elongated in a north-south direction perpendicular to the principal axis of the extensional stress change. (3) Most of this subsidence is coseismic. These similarities imply that volcanic subsidence triggered by the megathrust earthquakes is a ubiquitous phenomenon. Nonetheless, the mechanism of subsidence is yet to be investigated. Two main hypotheses have been proposed thus far: 1) The localized deformation of hot and weak plutonic bodies. 2) Water release from large hydrothermal reservoirs beneath the volcanoes.

Description: Some observational studies have suggested that the 2011 great Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mw9.0) released a large portion of the accumulated elastic strain on the plate interface owing to considerable weakening of the fault. Recent experimental and theoretical studies have shown that considerable dynamic weakening can occur at high slip velocities because of thermal pressurization or thermal weakening processes. This paper reviews severalmodels of the generation of megathrust earthquakes along the Japan Trench subduction zone, that considers thermal pressurization or a friction law that exhibits velocity weakening at high slip velocities, and it discusses the causes of megathrust earthquakes. To reproduce megathrust earthquakes with recurrence intervals of several hundreds of years, it will be necessary to consider the existence of a region at the shallow subduction plate boundary where significant dynamic weakening occurs due to thermal pressurization or other thermal weakening processes.

Description: Many of the emergency operations centers that take the initiative in commanding and controlling on disaster response still rely on inefficient manual information processing even though they have ICT systems at hand. This paper reports on 3-year functional exercises in a local government using ICT to improve information processing.

Description: This paper clarifies recovery status and life recovery processes based on victims’ feelings following the March 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. Specifically, a questionnaires were given to about 3,000 quake victims to determine their status and any issues they may have had. The overall recovery picture was obtained using measurement called a “recovery calendar.” The structure of the recovery process was compared to disasters such as the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995. The recovery calendar indicated that 80% of respondents felt that local activities have not been restored to their original state and saw themselves as victims three years after the earthquake, indicating that recovery had progressed slower than it had following the Great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake. In a comparison of the three prefectures of Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima, Iwate and Miyagi displayed the same recovery trends. Fukushima recovered later than the other two prefectures. For the item “The local economy was no longer influenced by the earthquake,” it was indicated that the economic situation in Iwate was worse than that in Miyagi or Fukushima. General characteristics of the life recovery process were also investigated through a comparison to other earthquake and water disasters. Life recovery proceeded in five phases: 1) Victims prepared to have an uncomfortable life for a while and understood the extent of the damage. 2) Victims felt safe and office and school activities had resumed. 3) Everyday life settled down, housing problems were finally settled, and personal financial situations were no longer influenced by the earthquake. 4) Respondents no longer defined themselves as victims. 5) The local economy was no longer influenced by the earthquake. In cluster analysis for classifying life recovery processes, 12 items were classified into five clusters corresponding to the above five phases, statistically showing that victims’ lives recovered through these phases. As a result of decision tree analysis for predicting causes of “they no longer defined themselves as victims” in an attempt to organize life recovery processes, the same structure of life recovery processes was found as for the three-layer recovery model of the Great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake. In short, physical and economic recovery such as of houses and regions was achieved based on the reconstruction of infrastructures, followed by the achievement of life recovery. It is predicted and proposed that life recovery in areas affected by the Great East Japan earthquake took the course of infrastructure reconstruction at first, then achieved physical recovery in local areas by supporting house recovery on a parallel with economic support. To achieve them, a long-term plan from a perspective of at least 10 years is required, as was the case of the Great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake.

Description: This research investigated the educational benefits of improving students’ performance associated with two types of teaching used in integrated disaster prevention lessons. Our research, experimental in nature, applied a pretest/posttest control group design. The research sample consisted of 89 students in grade 5 at two primary schools near the Merapi volcano, which is under the Sleman regency of Yogyakarta Special Region Province, Indonesia. Students were classified into experimental and control groups. Using the same lesson content, delivered by one of our researchers, the experimental group was taught through discussions and the control group was taught through lectures. Findings showed that lectures improved two viewpoints in students’ knowledge – one regarding appropriate action taken while indoors during a big earthquake and the other about consequences of a big earthquake regarding a residential fire. Student viewpoints regarding their awareness of living in a disaster-prone area were also found to have improved through the use of lectures. Discussions were found to be helpful in improving only one viewpoint of students’ knowledge about appropriate actions while indoors during a big earthquake. Study results suggest that efforts should be made to develop effective education in volcanic disaster at school focusing on changes in students’ knowledge, attitude, and behavior.

Description: The March 11, 2011, Great East Japan Earthquake seriously damaged industries in affected areas. Since then, the need to enhance corporate disaster resilience has risen to the top of management agendas. Business continuity plans (BCPs) are a high-priority task in establishing a company’s capabilities of quickly resuming key businesses within a preplanned time. Surveys indicate, however, that small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are behind in attaining disaster preparedness. We surveyed 100 motivated SMEs that took part in BCP implementation workshops. This review found two different stages – the first for implementing BCPs and the second for embedding BCPs. This survey indicated that 97% of SMEs taking part had implemented BCPs but only 40% had actually embedded them, and 30% had not embedded them. BCPs were implemented at a president’s instruction, but BCP embedding actually required additional factors related to employees and the company’s organizational environment. This review also found that the benefits of BCPs were becoming increasingly clear among companies that had implemented BCPs. It should be noted that BCP advantages are perceived in boarder fields of normal business operations by the surveyed companies that embedded BCP than companies that are not successful in embedding. This indicates those BCP should be implemented and embedded in the way that such normal business operation advantages would be perceived by companies and their members.

Description: The possibility of future climate change in Ghana has received much attention due to repeated droughts and floods over the last decades. The savanna zone which is described as the food basket of Ghana is highly susceptible to climate change impact. Scenarios from 20-year time slices of the near future – 2046-2065 – and the far future – 2081-2100 – climate change meant to help guide policy remain a challenge. Empirical downscaling performed at the local-scale of Wa District in the savanna zone of Ghana under the IPCC A2 SRES emissions scenario showed evidence of probable climate change with mean annual temperatures expected to increase over an estimated range of 1.5°C to 2.3°C in the near future, with number of cool nights becoming less frequent, especially during the Harmattan1 period. The dry season is expected to be warmer than the wet season, with high inter-annual variations projected in both maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures. Given an average of 1 day of Tmax 〉 40°C per month in the control period of 1961-2000, the number of hot days is expected to increase to 12 by 2046-2065. An increase in total rainfall is projected with possible shifts in distribution toward the end of the year, with a slight increase in rainfall during the dry season and an increase of rainfall at the onset and toward the end of the wet season. However, a decrease in June rainfall is projected in the wet season. The objective of this paper is to improve the understanding of future climate as a guide to local level medium-term development plans of effective adaptation options for Wa district in the savanna zone of Ghana.

Description: Microtremor exploration was performed around seismic recording stations at five sites in Lima city, Peru in order to know the site amplification at these sites. The Spatial Autocorrelation (SPAC) method was applied to determine the observed phase velocity dispersion curve, which was subsequently inverted in order to estimate the 1-D S-wave velocity structure. From these results, the theoretical amplification factor was calculated to evaluate the site effect at each site. S-wave velocity profiles at alluvial gravel sites have S-wave velocities ranging from ∼500 to ∼1500 m/s which gradually increase with depth, while Vs profiles at sites located on fine alluvial material such as sand and silt have Swave velocities that vary between ∼200 and ∼500 m/s. The site responses of all Vs profiles show relatively high amplification levels at frequencies larger than 3 Hz. The average transfer function was calculated to make a comparison with values within the existing amplification map of Lima city. These calculations agreed with the proposed site amplification ranges.

Description: Flood features were analyzed and risk knowledge was examined in studies in selected river basins of Southeast Asia. Rainfall runoff features were analyzed in Indonesia’s Solo river basin and in the Philippines’ Pampanga and Cagayan river basins using ground-observed and satellite-based (GSMaP) rainfall data. Flood damage was assessed for risk management by considering physical damage to agricultural and household in the Cambodian flood plain of the Lower Mekong Basin and in the Philippines’s Pampanga river basin. A comparison of simulated and observed runoff hydrographs showed that the accuracy of GSMaP rainfall in the Solo and Cagayan river basins in studied flood events was lower than in the Pampanga river basin case. In the Pampanga and Cagayan river basins, the density of rainfall station networks was below the WMO recommendation, and GSMaP rainfall data would be more effective in getting supplementary information for existing flood-forecasting systems for these river basins. Physical damage to households including residential assets and agricultural damage were estimated quantitatively based on flood features. The estimated value of agricultural and house damage was fairly consistent with reported values. Reliable flood damage data are important for developing flood damage functions and for confirming such estimation. Uncertainties associated with input data, model parameters, and damage information strongly influence the damage estimated. These uncertainties must be considered carefully in flood risk assessment models.

Description: One of the SATREPS projects on earthquake and tsunami disaster mitigation technology in Peru has been promoted since March 2010 for a five-year period. The project focuses on five research fields, i.e., seismic motion and geotechnical, tsunamis, buildings, damage assessment, and disaster mitigation planning. Collaborative research has been carried out through joint experiments, observations, field surveys, computer simulations, seminars and workshops. With the Lima metropolitan area and the city of Tacna set as case study sites, two mega-thrust earthquakes have been simulated and their effects and countermeasures investigated. The simulation results have been validated by observation data and have been implemented in government policy. Young Peruvian engineers and scientists have also received training and education. This paper summarizes the progress and outcomes of the SATREPS project for earthquake and tsunami disaster mitigation in Peru.

Description: We estimated, from twelve scenarios of potential megathrust earthquakes, the tsunami impact on the Lima-Callao region in Central Peru. In addition, we conducted hazard mapping using the local envelope of the maximum inundation simulated in these scenarios. The deterministic approach is supported by the decades of geodetic measurements in this area that characterize the interseismic strain build up since historical megathrust earthquakes. The earthquake scenarios for simulation proposed in [1] introduce spatially correlated short-wavelength slip heterogeneities to a first slip model in [2] calculated from the interseismic coupling (ISC) distribution in Central Peru. The ISC was derived from GPS monitoring data as well as from historical earthquake information. The results of strong ground motion simulations in [1] reported that the slip scenario with the deepest average peak values along the strike (Mw= 8.86) generates the largest PGA in the Lima-Callao area. In this study, we found from tsunami simulation results that the slip model with the largest peak slip at a shallow depth (Mw= 8.87) yielded the highest tsunami inundation. Such differences in maximum scenarios for peak ground acceleration and tsunami height reveal the importance of a comprehensive assessment of earthquake and tsunami hazards in order to provide plausible worstcase scenarios for disaster risk management and education.

Description: This paper explores problems related to verbal expressions of risk communication. In particular, we analyze several problems that arose during the critical situations caused by the accidents at the Fukushima nuclear plants following the Great East Japan Earthquake from pragmatics, linguistic psychological and social psychological perspectives. e focus on verbal expressions with implicatures and expressions incongruent with the sender’s right of involvement, underscoring that these expressions can lead to inferences on the part of the receiver that were intended by the sender and/or to negative images about the sender

Description: We estimate several scenarios for source models of megathrust earthquakes likely to occur on the Nazca-South American plates interface in southern Peru. To do so, we use a methodology for estimating the slip distribution of megathrust earthquakes based on an interseismic coupling (ISC) distribution model in subduction margins and on information about historical earthquakes. The slip model obtained from geodetic data represents large-scale features of asperities within the megathrust that are appropriate for simulating long-period waves and tsunami modelling. To simulate broadband frequency strong ground motions, we add small scale heterogeneities to the geodetic slip by using spatially correlated random noise distributions. Using these slip models and assuming several hypocenter locations, we calculate a set of strong ground motions for southern Peru and incorporate site effects obtained from microtremors array surveys in Tacna, the southernmost city in Peru.

Description: A currently populated slope in the northeast part of the city of Lima was selected as the target area of this study, with the aim of analyzing the influence of topography on its seismic response. A finite element model was constructed using soil information obtained by microtremor arraymeasurements conducted in flat and sloping areas, and solved for plain strain conditions in the time domain using an input motion developed for the most critical slip model of a simulation for megathrust earthquakes. Results showed that for this typical rocky slope, topographic effects do not have a significant influence on its seismic response, except for areas close to the foot of the slope where, even if soil vibration is restricted, an amplification of the seismic motion is still expected for short period structures.

Description: The Hokkaido University Research Center for Zoonosis Control (CZC) established the Hokudai Center for Zoonosis Control in Zambia (HUCZCZ) at the School of Veterinary Medicine, the University of Zambia, in 2007 to control zoonotic diseases in the areas of South Africa, where various emerging infectious diseases have occurred. The CZC promotes epidemiological studies and basic researches of infectious diseases caused by viruses, protozoa, and bacteria by using the biosafety level 3 facility in the HUCZCZ. This article introduces research activities of the HUCZCZ in Zambia.

Description: Problem:Strategic action planning and scheduling (SAP) in the coordination of a disaster response team involves selecting and decomposing an objective into sub-goals, grouping available units into coalitions and assigning them to the sub-goals, allocating units to tasks, and adjusting the decisions that have been made. The primary responsibility of a team’s incident commander (IC) in SAP is to coordinate the actions of operational units in disaster crisis/emergency response management by making macro/strategic decisions.Objective:In this paper, we completely model a real-world problem and present data related to the SAP problem. This data model is used to support the design and development of an appropriate approach to SAP.Method:The employed methodology is to analyze and study the SAP problem, which is composed of six essential dimensions: the problem domain, geographic information, geospatial-temporal macro tasks, strategic action planning, strategic action scheduling, and team structure.Result:The contribution of this paper is the SAP problem data model. It is designed as a unified modeling language (UML) class diagram consisting of entity types, attributes, and relationships associated with SAP problem data modeling.Conclusion:To evaluate the quality of SAP data modeling, the SAP problem data model is used to propose and develop an intelligent assistant software system to assist and collaborate with incident commanders in SAP. The study makes five novel contributions: 1) a complete data model for SAP problem modeling, 2) a presentation and aggregation of task information in geographic objects, 3) the expression and encoding of human intuition as human high-level strategy guidance for SAP, 4) the formulation of a strategic action plan, and 5) the integration of strategic action schedule information with other entities.

Description: The Institute of Tropical Medicine, of Nagasaki University (ITM) and the National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Vietnam (NIHE), have been jointly conducting a joint project since 2005 on emerging and reemerging infectious diseases under a grant from the Ministry of Education, Science, Culture and Technology (MEXT) of Japan. A Vietnam research station established on the NIHE campus has been the site of a number of research activities. Project for clarifying environmental and social factors affecting outbreaks of zoonosis, vector-borne infectious diseases, diarrhoea, and childhood pneumonia have been conducted within a collaborative project framework. Having achieved the goals set or research in the project’s first phase (from 2005 to 2009), the next objectives have been underlined, clarifying the factors and mechanisms causing infectious diseases. Four groups were established to answer these research questions, i.e., diarrhoea, vector-borne disease, clinical epidemiology, and zoonosis. These groups have conducted 15 independent activities. To conduct projects on a higher level, cooperation has been established with three Vietnamese governmental research institutions and with JICA-supported national hospitals. The outcome of such activities is expected to contribute greatly to promoting public health and improving medical care.

Description: The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) released a new version of tsunami warning system using three qualitative expressions for tsunami height. Understanding disaster mitigation information requires adequate knowledge on disaster occurrence mechanisms and precise action in emergencies. We surveyed differences in understanding and assessing tsunami warning information among university students in two prefectures – one damaged by the 2011 off Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake and the other outside of the damage zone. Results revealed that those outside of the damage zone tended to estimate tsunami heights as higher than those inside the damage zone when reading qualitative tsunami heights in the JMA’s new tsunami warning version. They also tended to need more concrete, precise information to understand appropriate evacuation procedures provided by public institutions, including the JMA.

Description: Numerous source models of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake have been proposed based on seismic, geodetic and tsunami data. Common features include a seismic moment of ∼ 4×1022 Nm, a duration of up to ∼ 160 s, and the largest slip of about 50 m east of the epicenter. Exact locations of this largest slip differ with the model, but all show considerable slip near the trench axis where plate coupling was considered to be weak and also at deeper part where M∼7 earthquakes repeatedly occurred at average 37-year intervals. The long-term forecast of large earthquakes made by the Earthquake Research Committee was based on earthquakes occurring in the last few centuries and did not consider such a giant earthquake. Among the several issues remaining unsolved is the tsunami source model. Coastal tsunami height distribution requires a tsunami source delayed by a few minutes and extending north of the epicenter, but seismic data do not indicate such a delayed rupture and there is no clear evidence of additional sources such as submarine landslides along the trench axis. Long-term forecast of giant earthquakes must incorporate non-characteristic models such as earthquake occurrence supercycles, assessments of maximum earthquake size independent of past data, and plate coupling based on marine geodetic data. To assess ground shaking and tsunami in presumed M∼9 earthquakes, characterization and scaling relation fromglobal earthquakes must be used.

Description: This study seeks to explore stakeholders’ perceptions, causes, and effects of extreme climatic events, such as droughts and floods, in the Wa West District of Ghana’s Upper West Region. A multi-stage sampling procedure is used to select 184 respondents. Data collection methods include individual questionnaire administration, focus group discussions, and a stakeholders’ forum in the Wa West District Assembly. While frequencies are used to show respondents’ perceptions of the severity of climate change effects, a treatmenteffect model is used to determine the factors influencing farmers’ choices of on-farm coping strategies over off-farm activities in both periods of drought and flood. Findings are the following: farmers perceive that climate change is real and has severe consequences. Consequently, they resort to both on-farm and off-farm strategies to cope with the effects of climate change. While men mostly adopt the former, women adopt the latter. Both strategies are, however, not viable for taking them out of poverty, though offfarm activities are more effective. Education and extension services are other important factors influencing the choice of coping strategies as well as farmers’ welfare. Farmers must be supported with more viable income-earning activities, ones that can take them out of poverty. Women should be given priority. Access to education and extension services must also be stepped up to facilitate the adoption of the coping strategies and to increase welfare.

Description: The effects of climate change on people’s livelihoods are perceived differently across various localities. It is imperative to examine how farmers understand the effects of climate change on their livelihoods. Their viewpoints can help create strategies for responding to climate and ecosystem changes in an appropriate and practical manner. Such perceptions are insufficiently understood in theWa West District of the Upper West Region of Ghana, despite the increasing frequency and magnitude of climate change’s effects. This paper first examines farmers’ perceptions about climate change in their communities in relation to available, conventional climate information. It also assesses farmers’ livelihood activities during both the wet and dry seasons in the district and discusses the area’s proneness to floods, droughts, and other types of climate change phenomena. This assessment reveals the challenges faced by the farmers in the study area and the opportunities to enhance their livelihoods.

Description: An earthquake shook the central-southern coast of Peru on August 15, 2007, as a coseismic effect a tsunami was generated, which flooded some villages and beach resorts and killed 3 people. From the analysis and signal processing of 10 tidal records, we obtained the parameters of the seismic source and the initial coseismic deformation through an inversion modeling, in which the synthetic signals are compared with the observed signals by a non-negative least square method. The maximum slip located on the southern part of the rupture geometry is 7.0 m. The calculated scalar seismic moment isM0= 1.99 × 1021Nm, equivalent to a magnitude ofMw8.1. We used these parameters to obtain a heterogeneous seismic source model, which was used as initial condition to simulate the tsunami propagation and inundation. We used the field survey observations to validate our source model.

Description: The 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake caused large eastward displacement and subsidence along the Pacific coast of northeastern Japan. This earthquake partly solved a well-known paradox holding that sense and rate of deformation differ greatly between geologic and geodetic estimates. A paradox remains, however, in explaining long-term uplift along the Pacific coast on a geologic time-scale. Geodetic data show that coastal subsidence continued at a nearly constant rate of ∼5 mm/yr with small fluctuations associated with M7-8 interplate earthquakes for ∼120 years before the Tohoku-oki earthquake. In an area near the Oshika Peninsula where coseismic subsidence is largest, extrapolation of a logarithmic function fitting observed postseismic deformation suggests that coseismic subsidence may be compensated for by the postseismic uplift for several decades but it is difficult to expect the postseismic uplift exceeding 2 meters, so it is implausible that the observed rapid subsidence continued throughout an entire interseismic period in a great megathrust earthquake cycle. We propose a hypothetical model in which the sense of vertical deformation changes from uplift to subsidence during the interseismic period. Using simple elastic dislocation theory, this model is explained by the shallow coupled part of a plate interface in an early interseismic period and the deep coupled part of a late interseismic period.