ALBERT

Description: The mechanisms involved in setting the annual cycle of the Florida Current transport are revisited using an adjoint model approach. Adjoint sensitivities of the Florida Current transport to wind stress reproduce a realistic seasonal cycle with an amplitude of ~1.2 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). The annual cycle is predominantly determined by wind stress forcing and related coastal upwelling (downwelling) north of the Florida Strait along the shelf off the North American coast. Fast barotropic waves propagate these anomalies southward and reach the Florida Strait within a month, causing an amplitude of ~1 Sv. Long baroclinic planetary Rossby waves originating from the interior are responsible for an amplitude of ~0.8 Sv but have a different phase. The sensitivities corresponding to the first baroclinic mode propagate westward and are highly influenced by topography. Considerable sensitivities are only found west of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, with maximum values at the western shelf edge. The second baroclinic mode also has an impact on the Florida Current variability, but only when a mean flow is present. A second-mode wave train propagates southwestward from the ocean bottom on the western side of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge between ~36° and 46°N and at Flemish Cap, where the mean flow interacts with topography, to the surface. Other processes such as baroclinic waves along the shelf and local forcing within the Florida Strait are of minor importance.

Description: The residual effect of surface gravity waves on mean flows in the upper ocean is investigated using thickness weighted mean (TWM) theory applied in a vertically Lagrangian and horizontally Eulerian coordinate system. Depth-dependent equations for the conservation of volume, momentum, and energy are derived. These equations allow for (i) finite amplitude fluid motions, (ii) the horizontal divergence of currents and (iii) a concise treatment of both the kinematic and viscous boundary conditions at the sea surface. Under the assumptions of steady and monochromatic waves and a uniform turbulent viscosity, the TWM momentum equations are used to illustrate the pressure- and viscosity-induced momentum fluxes through the surface that are implicit in previous studies of the wave-induced modification of the classical Ekman spiral problem. The TWM approach clarifies, in particular, the surface momentum flux associated with the so-called virtual wave stress of Longuet-Higgins. Overall the TWM framework can be regarded as an alternative to the three-dimensional Lagrangian mean framework of Pierson. Moreover the TWM framework can be used to include the residual effect of surface waves in large-scale circulation models. In specific models that carry the TWM velocity appropriate for advecting tracers as their velocity variable, the turbulent viscosity term should be modified so that the viscosity acts only on the Eulerian mean velocity.

Description: A method to derive salinity data from RAFOS float temperature and pressure measurements is described. It is based on evaluating the float's in situ density from its mechanical properties and in situ pressure and temperature data. The salinity of the surrounding water may then be determined, assuming that the float has reached equilibrium with its environment. This method, in comparison with the possible use of floatborne salinity cells, has the advantage of being both cost and energy neutral and highly stable in the long term. The effect on the estimated salinity of various parameters used in the determination of the float's in situ density is discussed. Results of seven RAFOS Boats deployed in the Brazil Basin are compared with corresponding CTD data to estimate the magnitude of these errors. At present, an accuracy of 0.3 psu is achieved. The accuracy may be improved to 0.02 psu by referring the float's calculated density to a reference density established by a CTD cast at the time of launch. Results from five floats deployed in the heterogeneous water masses of the Iberian Basin are compared with the corresponding CM casts to demonstrate the variability and interpretation of p-T-S float datasets from different areas.

Description: Data from a surface mooring located in the Sargasso Sea at 34°N, 70°W between May 1982 and May 1984 were compared with satellite data to investigate large diurnal sea surface temperature changes. Mooring and satellite measurements are in excellent agreement for those days on which no clouds covered the site at the time of the satellite pass. During the summer half-year at this site, there is a 20% charm of diurnal warming of more than 0.5°C, with values of up to 3.5°C observed in the two-year period. Diurnal warming observed at the mooring has been simulated well by a one-dimensional model driven by local beat and momentum fluxes. Under the conditions of very light wind and strong insolation that produce the Largest surface warming, the surface mixed-layer depth reduces to the convection depth, and wind-mixing becomes unimportant. The thermal response is then limited to depths between 1 and 2 m, making it likely that such events have been underreported in routine ship observations. In all cases observed, the spatial extent of warming events as determined by satellite data are well correlated with the corresponding atmospheric pressure patterns. Conditions giving rise to the largest diurnal warming events are often associated with a westward-extending ridge of the Bermuda high. In the region studied, 57°–75°W and 29°–43°N, diurnal warming of more than 1°C was found on occasion to cover areas in excess of 300 000 km2, with warming of more than 2°C coveting areas in excess of 130 000 km2.

Description: Historical data from the region between the Greenwich meridian and the African continental shelf are used to compute the offshore geostrophic transport of the Benguela Current. At 32°S, the Benguela Current is located near the African coast, transporting about 21 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1) of surface water toward the north relative to a potential density surface lying between the upper branch of Circumpolar Deep Water and the North Atlantic Deep Watar. Two warm core eddies of probable Agulhas Current origin an observed west of the Benguela Current at 32°S. Near 30°S, the Benguela Current turns toward the northwest and begins to separate from the eastern boundary. It carries about 18 Sv of surface water across 28°S. The current then turns mainly toward the west to flow over a relatively deep segment of the Walvis Ridge south of the Valdivia Bank. A surface current with northward surface of about 10 cm s−1 flows along the western side of the Valdivia Bank, while another northward surface current flows at about 20 cm s−1 some 300 km west of the bank. About 3 Sv of surface now do not leave the Cape Basin south of the Vaidivia Bank, but instead drift northward as a wide. sluggish flow out of the northern end of the Cape Basin. Because of the more southerly seaward extensions of most of the Benguela Current, there are no deep-reaching interactions observed between this current and the cyclonic gyre in the Angola Basin east of the Greenwich meridian. Beneath the surface layer, about 4–5 Sv of Antarctic Intermediate Water are carried northward across 32° and 28°S by the Benguela Current, essentially all of which turns westward to cross the Greenwich meridian south of 24°S.

Description: An XBT interface is described for use with Commodore and other 6502 based microprocessors. This interface takes the form of a single circuit board mounted inside the microcomputer and is completely software controlled. The application of this digital XBT system to the real-time computation of density and dynamic height, using historical or recent temperature-salinity relationships, is also described. Comparison between XBT and CTD measured temperatures from the Northeast Atlantic yield a mean temperature difference of −0.08°C and an rms temperature difference of 0.33°C for the upper 800 m. Examples of dynamic topography maps and a temperature section computed using this technique are also presented and comparison between objectively analyzed XBT and CTD dynamic topographies demonstrates the reliability of the method for mapping the baroclinic flow.

Description: The existence of energetic anticyclonic mid-depth vortices of Mediterranean Water (meddies) questions the validity of a conventional advective–diffusive balance in the eastern Atlantic subtropical gyre. A mesoscale experiment in the Azores–Madeira region reveals a link of these meddies to large-scale subsurface meanders. For the first time it is shown that meddies may have strong surface vorticity, indicative of a generation process involving the Azores Current—a deep reaching near-surface jet.

Description: Many aspects of barnacle body form are known to be developmentally plastic. Perhaps the most striking examples of such plasticity occur in their feeding legs and unusually long penises, the sizes and shapes of which can change dramatically and adaptively with changes in conspecific density and local water flow conditions. However, whether variation in overall appendage form is mirrored by structural responses in cuticle and muscle is not known. In order to determine how structural variation underlies phenotypic plasticity in barnacle appendages, we examined barnacles occurring at low and high population densities from one wave-protected and one wave-exposed site. We used histological sectioning and fluorescence microscopy of feeding legs and penises to compare cuticle thickness, muscle thickness, and muscle organization, and artificial penis inflation to compare penis extensibility. We observed striking differences in cuticle thickness, muscle thickness, and muscle organization between sites that differed in water velocity, but we found no clear differences associated with variation in conspecific density. Penis extensibility also did not differ consistently between sites. These results are consistent with an adaptive explanation for much of the remarkable and complex variation in barnacle feeding leg and penis morphology among sites that differ in water velocity.

Description: The Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Front (STF) is a narrow zone of transition between upper-level subtropical waters to the north and subantarctic waters to the south. It is found near 40 degrees S across the South Atlantic and South Indian Oceans and is associated with an eastward geostrophic current band, The current band in each basin is found at or just north of the surface front except near the eastern boundaries where most of the subtropical waters turn north into the eastern limbs of the subtropical gyres. The bands associated with the STF are thus distinct features separated from the strong zonal flows of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current farther south. The authors have referred to the current bands in the two respective oceans as the South Atlantic Current and the South Indian Ocean Current. In this paper the authors use the historical database from the South Pacific Ocean to investigate the geostrophic flow associated with the STF there. The STF extends across the southern Tasman Sea from south of Tasmania to southern New Zealand, and a weak eastward flow appears to be associated with it. The transport amounts to only about 3 Sv (1Sv = 10(6) m(3) s(-1)), little of which passes south of New Zealand. Mixing within the eddy-rich Tasman Sea may account for this weakness, while also setting up another more significant front in the northern Tasman Sea, the Tasman Front. It branches off from the East Australian Current toward the north of New Zealand, along which moves a flow of about 14 Sv. After passing north of New Zealand, a portion of this current flows east to contribute to a current band near 30 degrees S, while another portion turns south as the East Auckland Current and meets with subantarctic waters near Chatham Rise (44 degrees S), thus reestablishing the STF. An enhanced eastward current band is associated with the front there, one that extends across the remainder of the South Pacific and is referred to as the South Pacific Current. In comparison with its counterparts in the other basins, which typically begin by carrying 30 Sv (Atlantic) to 60 Sv (Indian) in the upper 1000 m in their western portions before weakening to 10-15 Sv in the east, the South Pacific Current is weak. Near Chatham Rise, it starts with a transport of approximately 5 Sv, and it remains near this strength as it shifts gradually north across the basin toward South America. The current appears to split into two smaller bands in the region of 115 degrees-85 degrees W, while near 28 degrees 5, 83 degrees W it begins to turn more strongly north and becomes shallower and weaker. Potential vorticity distributions indicate that this current acts as an impediment toward the northward spreading of Antarctic Intermediate Water, But why the South Pacific Current east of New Zealand should be so much weaker than its counterparts in the other basins is not particularly clear. It may be due to the presence of New Zealand and other topographic barriers to deep now east of Australia, to the axis of the subtropical gyre in the South Pacific shifting more rapidly southward with depth than those elsewhere, thus causing greater reductions in the underlying zonal velocities, and to strong poleward eddy heat and salt fluxes in the other two basins leading to smaller cross-STF gradients in the Pacific.

Description: The suggestion is advanced that the remarkably low static stability of Antarctic surface waters may arise from a feedback loop involving global deep-water temperatures. If deep-water temperatures are too warm, this promotes Antarctic convection, thereby strengthening the inflow of Antarctic Bottom Water into the ocean interior and cooling the deep ocean. If deep waters are too cold, this promotes Antarctic stratification allowing the deep ocean to warm because of the input of North Atlantic Deep Water. A steady-state deep-water temperature is achieved such that the Antarctic surface can barely undergo convection. A two-box model is used to illustrate this feedback loop in its simplest expression and to develop basic concepts, such as the bounds on the operation of this loop. The model illustrates the possible dominating influence of Antarctic upwelling rate and Antarctic freshwater balance on global deep-water temperatures.

Description: The reliability of the Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Dataset (COADS) Release 1a 2° monthly winds is tested by comparing it with instrumental measurements in the northwest Atlantic from 1981 to 1991. The instrumental dataset contains anemometer measurements of a very high homogeneity and quality, which were taken by six research sister ships with known anemometer heights in the northwest Atlantic. Special data processing was made with instrumental samples to provide compatibility with the COADS winds. Comparison shows overestimation of the COADS winds in the low ranges and underestimation of the strong and moderate winds. Application of the alternative equivalent Beaufort scales does not remove this bias and makes it even more pronounced. Thus, the conclusion is made that the disagreement obtained results primarily from the uncertainties of anemometer measurements in COADS, especially from the incorrect evaluation of the true wind. Instrumental data also do not indicate significant long-term interannual changes, which are pronounced in the COADS dataset for the 1980s. Some regional features of the comparison are discussed.

Description: The eddy correlation technique is rapidly becoming an established method for resolving dissolved oxygen fluxes in natural aquatic systems. This direct and noninvasive determination of oxygen fluxes close to the sediment by simultaneously measuring the velocity and the dissolved oxygen fluctuations has considerable advantages compared to traditional methods. This paper describes the measurement principle and analyzes the spatial and temporal scales of those fluctuations as a function of turbulence levels. The magnitudes and spectral structure of the expected fluctuations provide the required sensor specifications and define practical boundary conditions for the eddy correlation instrumentation and its deployment. In addition, data analysis and spectral corrections are proposed for the usual nonideal conditions, such as the time shift between the sensor pair and the limited frequency response of the oxygen sensor. The consistency of the eddy correlation measurements in a riverine reservoir has been confirmed—observing a night–day transition from oxygen respiration to net oxygen production, ranging from −20 to +5 mmol m−2 day−1—by comparing two physically independent, eddy correlation instruments deployed side by side. The natural variability of the fluctuations calls for at least ∼1 h of flux data record to achieve a relative accuracy of better than ∼20%. Although various aspects still need improvement, eddy correlation is seen as a promising and soon-to-be widely applied method in natural waters.

Description: Some studies of ocean climate model experiments suggest that regional changes in dynamic sea level could provide a valuable indicator of trends in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). This paper describes the use of a sequence of global ocean–ice model experiments to show that the diagnosed patterns of sea surface height (SSH) anomalies associated with changes in the MOC in the North Atlantic (NA) depend critically on the time scales of interest. Model hindcast simulations for 1958–2004 reproduce the observed pattern of SSH variability with extrema occurring along the Gulf Stream (GS) and in the subpolar gyre (SPG), but they also show that the pattern is primarily related to the wind-driven variability of MOC and gyre circulation on interannual time scales; it is reflected also in the leading EOF of SSH variability over the NA Ocean, as described in previous studies. The pattern, however, is not useful as a “fingerprint” of longer-term changes in the MOC: as shown with a companion experiment, a multidecadal, gradual decline in the MOC [of 5 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) over 5 decades] induces a much broader, basin-scale SSH rise over the mid-to-high-latitude NA, with amplitudes of 20 cm. The detectability of such a trend is low along the GS since low-frequency SSH changes are effectively masked here by strong variability on shorter time scales. More favorable signal-to-noise ratios are found in the SPG and the eastern NA, where a MOC trend of 0.1 Sv yr−1 would leave a significant imprint in SSH already after about 20 years.

Description: Changes in the ventilation of the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) of the tropical North Atlantic are studied using oceanographic data from 18 research cruises carried out between 28.5° and 23°W during 1999–2008 as well as historical data referring to the period 1972–85. In the core of the OMZ at about 400-m depth, a highly significant oxygen decrease of about 15 μmol kg−1 is found between the two periods. During the same time interval, the salinity at the oxygen minimum increased by about 0.1. Above the core of the OMZ, within the central water layer, oxygen decreased too, but salinity changed only slightly or even decreased. The scatter in the local oxygen–salinity relations decreased from the earlier to the later period suggesting a reduced filamentation due to mesoscale eddies and/or zonal jets acting on the background gradients. Here it is suggested that latitudinally alternating zonal jets with observed amplitudes of a few centimeters per second in the depth range of the OMZ contribute to the ventilation of the OMZ. A conceptual model of the ventilation of the OMZ is used to corroborate the hypothesis that changes in the strength of zonal jets affect mean oxygen levels in the OMZ. According to the model, a weakening of zonal jets, which is in general agreement with observed hydrographic evidences, is associated with a reduction of the mean oxygen levels that could significantly contribute to the observed deoxygenation of the North Atlantic OMZ.

Description: The Rio Grande Rise acts as a natural barrier for the equatorward flow of Antarctic Bottom Water in the subtropical South Atlantic. In addition to the Vema Channel, the Hunter Channel cuts through this obstacle and offers a separate route for bottom-water import into the southern Brazil Basin. On the occasion of the Deep Basin Experiment, a component of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE), the expected deep flow through the Hunter Channel was directly observed for the first time by an array of moored current meters and thermistor chains from December 1992 to May 1994. Main results are (i) the Hunter Channel is, in fact, a conduit for bottom-water flow into the Brazil Basin. Our new mean transport from moored current meters [2.92 (±1.24) × 106 m3 s−1] is significantly higher than earlier estimates that were based on geostrophic calculations. (ii) During the WOCE observational period a tendency toward increased bottom-water temperatures was observed. This observation from the Hunter Channel is consistent with findings from the Vema Channel. (iii) The overflow through the Hunter Channel is highly variable and puts in perspective earlier synoptic geostrophic transport estimates

Description: We examine the diffusive behavior of the flow field in an eddy-resolving, primitive equation circulation model. Analysis of fluid particle trajectories illustrates the transport mechanisms, which are leading to uniform tracer and potential vorticity distributions in the interior of the subtropical thermocline. In contrast to the assumption of weak mixing in recent analytical theories, the numerical model indicates the alternative of tracer and potential vorticity homogenization on isopycnal surfaces taking place in a nonideal fluid with strong, along-isopycnal eddy mixing. The eastern, ventilated portion of the gyre appears to be sufficiently homogeneous to allow the concept of an eddy diffusivity to apply. A break in a random walk behavior of particle statistics occurs after about 100 days when along-flow dispersion sharply increases, indicative of mean shear effects. During the first months of particle spreading, eddy dispersal and mean advection are of similar magnitude. Eddy kinetic energy is of O(60–80 cm2 s−2) in the model thermocline, comparable to the pool of weak eddy intensity found in the eastern parts of the subtropical oceans. Eddy diffusivity in the model thermocline (Kxx = 8 × 107, Kyy = 3 × 107 cm2 s−1) seems to be higher by a factor of about 3 than oceanic values estimated for these area. Below the thermocline, model diffusivity decreases substantially and becomes much more anisotropic, with particle dispersal preferentially in the zonal direction. The strong nonisotropic behavior, prominent also in all other areas of water eddy intensity, appears as the major discrepancy when compared with the observed behavior of SOFAR floats and surface drifters in the ocean.

Description: The mean warm water transfer toward the equator along the western boundary of the South Atlantic is investigated, based on a number of ship surveys carried out during 1990–96 with CTD water mass observations and current profiling by shipboard and lowered (with the CTD/rosette) acoustic Doppler current profiler and with Pegasus current profiler. The bulk of the northward warm water flow follows the coast in the North Brazil Undercurrent (NBUC) from latitudes south of 10°S, carrying 23 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) above 1000 m. Out of this, 16 Sv are waters warmer than 7°C that form the source waters of the Florida Current. Zonal inflow from the east by the South Equatorial Current enters the western boundary system dominantly north of 5°S, adding transport northwest of Cape San Roque, and transforming the NBUC along its way toward the equator into a surface-intensified current, the North Brazil Current (NBC). From the combination of moored arrays and shipboard sections just north of the equator along 44°W, the mean NBC transport was determined at 35 Sv with a small seasonal cycle amplitude of only about 3 Sv. The reason for the much larger near-equatorial northward warm water boundary current than what would be required to carry the northward heat transport are recirculations by the zonal current system and the existence of the shallow South Atlantic tropical–subtropical cell (STC). The STC connects the subduction zones of the eastern subtropics of both hemispheres via equatorward boundary undercurrents with the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC), and the return flow is through upwelling and poleward Ekman transport. The persistent existence of a set of eastward thermocline and intermediate countercurrents on both sides of the equator was confirmed that recurred throughout the observations and carry ventilated waters from the boundary regime into the tropical interior. A strong westward current underneath the EUC, the Equatorial Intermediate Current, returns low-oxygen water westward. Consistent evidence for the existence of a seasonal variation in the warm water flow south of the equator could not be established, whereas significant seasonal variability of the boundary regime occurs north of the equator: northwestward alongshore throughflow of about 10 Sv of waters with properties from the Southern Hemisphere was found along the Guiana boundary in boreal spring when the North Equatorial Countercurrent is absent or even flowing westward, whereas during June–January the upper NBC is known to connect with the eastward North Equatorial Countercurrent through a retroflection zone that seasonally migrates up and down the coast and spawns eddies. The equatorial zone thus acts as a buffer and transformation zone for cross-equatorial exchanges, but knowledge of the detailed pathways in the interior including the involved diapycnal exchanges is still a problem.

Description: In this study, the authors discuss two different parameterizations for the effect of mixed layer eddies, one based on ageostrophic linear stability analysis (ALS) and the other one based on a scaling of the potential energy release by eddies (PER). Both parameterizations contradict each other in two aspects. First, they predict different functional relationships between the magnitude of the eddy fluxes and the Richardson number (Ri) related to the background state. Second, they also predict different vertical structure functions for the horizontal eddy fluxes. Numerical simulations for two different configurations and for a large range of different background conditions are used to evaluate the parameterizations. It turns out that PER is better suited to capture the Ri dependency of the magnitude of the eddy fluxes. On the other hand, the vertical structure of the meridional eddy fluxes predicted by ALS is more accurate than that of PER, while the vertical structure of the vertical eddy fluxes is well predicted by both parameterizations. Therefore, this study suggests the use of the magnitude of PER and the vertical structure functions of ALS for an improved parameterization of mixed layer eddy fluxes.

Description: Northern Hemisphere stratospheric variability is investigated with respect to chaotic behavior using time series from three different variables extracted from four different reanalysis products and two numerical model runs with different forcing. The time series show red spectra at all frequencies and the probability distribution functions show persistent deviations from a Gaussian distribution. An exception is given by the numerical model forced with perpetual winter conditions—a case that shows more variability and follows a Gaussian distribution, suggesting that the deviation from Gaussianity found in the observations is due to the transition between summer and winter variability. To search for the presence of a chaotic attractor the correlation dimension and entropy, the Lyapunov spectrum, and the associated Kaplan–Yorke dimension are estimated. A finite value of the dimensions can be computed for each variable and data product, with the correlation dimension ranging between 3.0 and 4.0 and the Kaplan–Yorke dimension between 3.3 and 5.5. The correlation entropy varies between 0.6 and 1.1. The model runs show similar values for the correlation and Lyapunov dimensions for both the seasonally forced run and the perpetual-winter run, suggesting that the structure of a possible chaotic attractor is not determined by the seasonality in the forcing, but must be given by other mechanisms.

Description: Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric variability is investigated with respect to chaotic behavior using time series from three different variables extracted from four different reanalysis products. The results are compared with the same analysis applied to the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The probability density functions (PDFs) for the SH show persistent deviations from a Gaussian distribution. The variability is given by white spectra for low frequencies, a slope of −1 for intermediate frequencies, and −3 slopes for high frequencies. Considering the time series for winter and summer separately, PDFs show a Gaussian distribution and the variability spectra change their slopes, indicating the role of the transition between winter and summer variability in shaping the time series. The correlation (D2) and the Kaplan–Yorke (DKY) dimensions are estimated. A finite value of the dimensions can be computed for each variable and data product, except for the NCEP zonal-mean zonal wind and temperature data, which violate the requirement D2 ≤ DKY, possibly owing to the presence of spurious trends and inconsistencies in the data. The value of D2 ranges between 2.6 and 3.9, while DKY ranges between 3.0 and 4.5. The results show that both D2 and DKY display large variability in their values both for different datasets and for different variables within the same dataset. The variability of the values of D2 and DKY thus leaves open the question about the existence of a low-dimensional attractor or if the finite dimensions of the system are the result of the projection of a larger attractor in a low-dimensional embedding space.

Description: In the present paper a hydrostatic “reduced gravity” model, generally used to simulate transient bottom-arrested gravity plumes, was coupled with a sediment transport model. The coupled model considers the respective contribution of suspended sediment particles on the buoyancy of a plume and allows one to simulate autosuspension and size-differential deposition of sediments based on the local turbulence and settling velocities. Simulations using the coupled model reveal that sediment-enriched plumes are able to inject both entrained and original shelf water masses into intermediate and bottom layers of an adjacent ocean basin in an ageostrophic dynamical balance. Hence the mechanism described here is more rapid than classic, “seawater” plumes, which are solely driven by surplus density of the water masses. Results suggest that “turbidity” plumes may constitute an important process in the formation and renewal of deep waters in the Arctic Ocean. In case a turbidity plume reaches its level of equilibrium density, deposition of suspended particles causes the density of the interstitial fluid to be lower than the density of the ambient fluid. This initiates upward convection within the water column. The substantial difference between TS- and turbidity plumes is described by model experiments that utilize idealized slope and sediment distributions. A realistic simulation of a turbidity plume cascading down the continental slope of the western Barents Sea is presented. The computed distribution of deposited sediments agrees well with observations in an area of high accumulation of shelf-derived sediments. The frequency of occurrence of sediment-enriched gravity plumes originating from the Barents Sea shelf is estimated from the various geological variables (thickness of sediments at the bottom, grain size composition) measured from bottom sediments samples.

Description: The Denmark Strait Overflow (DSO) supplies about one-third of the North Atlantic Deep Water and is critical to global thermohaline circulation. Knowledge of the pathways of DSO through the Irminger Basin and its transformation there is still incomplete, however. The authors deploy over 10 000 Lagrangian particles at the Denmark Strait in a high-resolution ocean model to study these issues. First, the particle trajectories show that the mean position and potential density of dense waters cascading over the Denmark Strait sill evolve consistently with hydrographic observations. These sill particles transit the Irminger Basin to the Spill Jet section (65.25°N) in 5–7 days and to the Angmagssalik section (63.5°N) in 2–3 weeks. Second, the dense water pathways on the continental shelf are consistent with observations and particles released on the shelf in the strait constitute a significant fraction of the dense water particles recorded at the Angmagssalik section within 60 days (~25%). Some particles circulate on the shelf for several weeks before they spill off the shelf break and join the overflow from the sill. Third, there are two places where the water density following particle trajectories decreases rapidly due to intense mixing: to the southwest of the sill and southwest of the Kangerdlugssuaq Trough on the continental slope. After transformation in these places, the overflow particles exhibit a wide range of densities.

Description: The sensitivities of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) to different distributions of tropical SST heating are investigated in an idealized aquaplanet model. It is found that an increase in tropical SSTs generally leads to an acceleration of tropical upwelling and an associated reduction in the age of air (AOA) in the polar stratosphere and that the AOA near the subtropical tropopause is correlated with local isentropic mixing of tropospheric air with stratospheric air. The zonal distribution of SST perturbations has a major impact on the vertical and meridional structure of the BDC as compared with other SST characteristics. Zonally localized SST heatings tend to generate a shallow acceleration of the stratospheric residual circulation, enhanced isentropic mixing associated with a weakened stratospheric jet, and a reduction in AOA mostly within the polar vortex. In contrast, SST heatings with a zonally symmetric structure tend to produce a deep strengthening of the stratospheric residual circulation, suppressed isentropic mixing associated with a stronger stratospheric jet, and a decrease of AOA in the entire stratosphere. The shallow versus deep strengthening of the stratospheric residual circulation change has been linked to wave propagation and dissipation in the subtropical lower stratosphere rather than wave generation in the troposphere, and the former can be strongly affected by the vertical position of the subtropical jet. These results suggest that, while the longitudinally localized SST trends under climate change may contribute to the change in the shallow branch of the BDC, the upward shift of the subtropical jet associated with the zonal SST heating can impact the deep branch of the BDC.

Description: The authors test the hypothesis that recent observed trends in surface westerlies in the Southern Hemisphere are directly consequent on observed trends in the timing of stratospheric final warming events. The analysis begins by verifying that final warming events have an impact on tropospheric circulation in a simplified GCM driven by specified equilibrium temperature distributions. Seasonal variations are imposed in the stratosphere only. The model produces qualitatively realistic final warming events whose influence extends down to the surface, much like what has been reported in observational analyses. The authors then go on to study observed trends in surface westerlies composited with respect to the date of final warming events. If the considered hypothesis were correct, these trends would appear to be much weaker when composited with respect to the date of the final warming events. The authors find that this is not the case, and accordingly they conclude that the observed surface changes cannot be attributed simply to this shift toward later final warming events.

Description: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) makes the strongest oceanic contribution to the meridional redistribution of heat. Here, an observation-based, forty-eight-month-long time series of the vertical structure and strength of the AMOC at 26.5°N is presented. From April 2004 to April 2008 the AMOC had a mean strength of 18.7 ±2.1 Sv with fluctuations of 4.8 Sv rms. The best guess of the peak-to-peak amplitude of the AMOC seasonal cycle is 6.7 Sv, with a maximum strength in autumn and a minimum in spring. While seasonality in the AMOC was commonly thought to be dominated by the northward Ekman transport, this study reveals that fluctuations of the geostrophic mid-ocean and Gulf Stream transports of 2.2 Sv and 1.7 Sv rms, respectively, are substantially larger than those of the Ekman component (1.2 Sv rms). A simple model based on linear dynamics suggests that the seasonal cycle is dominated by wind stress curl forcing at the eastern boundary of the Atlantic. Seasonal geostrophic AMOC anomalies might represent an important and previously underestimated component of meridional transport and storage of heat in the subtropical North Atlantic. There is evidence that the seasonal cycle observed here is representative of much longer intervals. Previously, hydrographic snapshot estimates between 1957 and 2004 had suggested a long-term decline of the AMOC by 8 Sv. This study suggests that aliasing of seasonal AMOC anomalies might have accounted for a large part of the inferred slowdown.

Description: Quantile mapping is routinely applied to correct biases of regional climate model simulations compared to observational data. If the observations are of similar resolution as the regional climate model, quantile mapping is a feasible approach. However, if the observations are of much higher resolution, quantile mapping also attempts to bridge this scale mismatch. Here, it is shown for daily precipitation that such quantile mapping-based downscaling is not feasible but introduces similar problems as inflation of perfect prognosis ("prog") downscaling: the spatial and temporal structure of the corrected time series is misrepresented, the drizzle effect for area means is overcorrected, area-mean extremes are overestimated, and trends are affected. To overcome these problems, stochastic bias correction is required.

Description: A neural network (NN) has been developed in order to retrieve the cloud liquid water path (LWP) over the oceans from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data. The retrieval with NNs depends crucially on the SSM/I channels used as input and the number of hidden neurons—that is, the NN architecture. Three different combinations of the seven SSM/I channels have been tested. For all three methods an NN with five hidden neurons yields the best results. The NN-based LWP algorithms for SSM/I observations are intercompared with a standard regression algorithm. The calibration and validation of the retrieval algorithms are based on 2060 radiosonde observations over the global ocean. For each radiosonde profile the LWP is parameterized and the brightness temperatures (Tb’s) are simulated using a radiative transfer model. The best LWP algorithm (all SSM/I channels except T85V) shows a theoretical error of 0.009 kg m−2 for LWPs up to 2.8 kg m−2 and theoretical “clear-sky noise” (0.002 kg m−2), which has been reduced relative to the regression algorithm (0.031 kg m−2). Additionally, this new algorithm avoids the estimate of negative LWPs. An indirect validation and intercomparison is presented that is based upon SSM/I measurements (F-10) under clear-sky conditions, classified with independent IR-Meteosat data. The NN-based algorithms outperform the regression algorithm. The best LWP algorithm shows a clear-sky standard deviation of 0.006 kg m−2, a bias of 0.001 kg m−2, nonnegative LWPs, and no correlation with total precipitable water. The estimated accuracy for SSM/I observations and two of the proposed new LWP algorithms is 0.023 kg m−2 for LWP ⩽ 0.5 kg m−2.

Description: An initially resting ocean of stratification N is considered, subject to buoyancy loss at its surface of magnitude B0 over a circular region of radius r, at a latitude where the Coriolis parameter is f. Initially the buoyancy loss gives rise to upright convection as an ensemble of plumes penetrates the stratified ocean creating a vertically mixed layer. However, as deepening proceeds, horizontal density gradients at the edge of the forcing region support a geostrophic rim current, which develops growing meanders through baroclinic instability. Eventually finite-amplitude baroclinic eddies sweep stratified water into the convective region at the surface and transport convected water outward and away below, setting up a steady state in which lateral buoyancy flux offsets buoyancy loss at the surface. In this final state quasi-horizontal baroclinic eddy transfer dominates upright “plume” convection. By using “parcel theory” to consider the energy transformations taking place, it is shown that the depth, hfinal at which deepening by convective plumes is arrested by lateral buoyancy flux due to baroclinic eddies, and the time tfinal it takes to reach this depth, is given by both independent of rotation. Here γ and β are dimensionless constants that depend on the efficiency of baroclinic eddy transfer. A number of laboratory and numerical experiments are then inspected and carried out to seek confirmation of these parameter dependencies and obtain quantitative estimates of the constants. It is found that γ = 3.9 ± 0.9 and β = 12 ± 3. Finally, the implications of our study to the understanding of integral properties of deep and intermediate convection in the ocean are discussed.

Description: This paper describes, and establishes the dynamical mechanisms responsible for, the large-scale, time-mean, midlatitude circulation in a high-resolution model of the North Atlantic basin. The model solution is compared with recently proposed transport schemes and interpretations of the dynamical balances operating in the sub-tropical gyre. In particular, the question of the degree to which Sverdrup balance holds for the subtropical gyre is addressed. At 25°N, thermohaline-driven bottom flows cause strong local departures from the Sverdrup solution for the vertically integrated meridional mass transport, but these nearly integrate to zero across the interior of the basin. In the northwestern region of the subtropical gyre, in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream, higher-order dynamics become important, and linear vorticity dynamics is unable to explain the model's vertically integrated transport. In the subpolar gyre, the model transport bears little resemblance to the Sverdrup prediction, and higher-order dynamics are important across the entire longitudinal extent of the basin. The sensitivity of the model transport amplitudes, patterns, and dynamical balances are estimated by examining the solutions under a range of parameter choices and for four different wind stress forcing specifications. Taking into account a deficit of 7–10 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) in the contribution of the model thermohaline circulation to the meridional transports at 25°N, the wind stress climatology of Isemer and Hasse appears to yield too strong of a circulation, while that derived from the NCAR Community Climate Model yields too weak of a circulation. The Hellerman and Rosenstein and ECMWF climatologies result in wind-driven transports close to observational estimates at 25°N. The range between cases for the annual mean southward transport in the interior above 1000 m is 14 Sv, which is 40%–70% of the mean transport itself. There is little sensitivity to the model closure parameters at this latitude. At 55°N, in the subpolar gyre, there is little sensitivity of the model solution to the choice of either closure parameters or wind climatology, despite large differences in the Sverdrup transports implied by the different wind stress datasets. Large year to year variability of the meridional transport east of the Bahamas makes it difficult to provide robust estimates of the sensitivity of the Antilles and deep western boundary current systems to forcing and parameter changes.

Description: A 12-month mooring record (May 1994–June 1995), together with accompanying PALACE float data, is used to describe an annual cycle of deep convection and restratification in the Labrador Sea. The mooring is located at 56.75°N, 52.5°W, near the former site of Ocean Weather Station Bravo, in water of 3500 m depth. This is a pilot experiment for climate monitoring, and also for studies of deep-convection dynamics. Mooring measurements include temperature (T), salinity (S), horizontal and vertical velocity, and acoustic measurement of surface winds. The floats made weekly temperature–salinity profiles between their drift level (near 1500 m) and the surface. With moderately strong cooling to the atmosphere (300 W m−2 averaged from November to March), wintertime convection penetrated from the surface to about 1750 m, overcoming the stabilizing effect of upper-ocean low-salinity water. The water column restratifies rapidly after brief vertical homogenization (in potential density, salinity, and potential temperature). Both the rapid restratification and the energetic high-frequency variations of T and S observed at the mooring are suggestive of a convection depth that varies greatly with location. Lateral variations in T and S exist down to very small scales, and these remnants of convection decay (with e-folding time 170 day) after convection ceases. Lateral variability at the scale of 100 km is verified by PALACE profiles. The Eulerian mooring effectively samples the convection in a mesoscale region of ocean as eddies sweep past it; the Lagrangian PALACE floats are complementary in sampling the geography of deep convection more widely. This laterally variable convection leaves the water column with significant vertical gradients most of the year. Convection followed by lateral mixing gives vertical salinity profiles the (misleading) appearance that a one-dimensional diffusive process is fluxing freshwater downward. During spring, summer, and fall the salinity, temperature, and buoyancy rise steadily with time throughout most of the water column. This is likely the result of mixing with the encircling boundary currents, compensating for the escape of Labrador Sea Water from the region. Low-salinity water mixes into the gyre only near the surface. The water-column heat balance is in satisfactory agreement with meteorological assimilation models. Directly observed subsurface calorimetry may be the more reliable indication of the annual-mean air–sea heat flux. Acoustic instrumentation on the mooring gave a surprisingly good time series of the vector surface wind. The three-dimensional velocity field consists of convective plumes of width 200 to 1000 m, vertical velocities of 2 to 8 cm s−1, and Rossby numbers of order unity, embedded in stronger (20 cm s−1) lateral currents associated with mesoscale eddies. Horizontal currents with timescales of several days to several months are strongly barotropic. They are suddenly energized as convection reaches great depth in early March, and develop toward a barotropic state, as also seen in models of convectively driven geostrophic turbulence in a weakly stratified, high-latitude ocean. Currents decay through the summer and autumn, apart from some persistent isolated eddies. These coherent, isolated, cold anticyclones carry cores of pure convected water long after the end of winter. Boundary currents nearby interact with the Labrador Sea gyre and provide an additional source of eddies in the interior Labrador Sea. An earlier study of the pulsation of the boundary currents is supported by observations of sudden ejection of floats from the central gyre into the boundary currents (and sudden ingestion of boundary current floats into the gyre interior), in what may be a mechanism for exchange between Labrador Sea Water and the World Ocean.

Description: A neural network is used to calculate the longwave net radiation (Lnet) at the sea surface from measurements of the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I). The neural network applied in this study is able to account largely for the nonlinearity between Lnet and the satellite-measured brightness temperatures (TB). The algorithm can be applied for instantaneous measurements over oceanic regions with the area extent of satellite passive microwave observations (30–60 km in diameter). Comparing with a linear regression method the neural network reduces the standard error for Lnet from 17 to 5 W m−2 when applied to model results. For clear-sky cases, a good agreement with an error of less than 5 W m−2 for Lnet between calculations from SSM/I observations and pyrgeometer measurements on the German research vessel Poseidon during the International Cirrus Experiment (ICE) 1989 is obtained. For cloudy cases, the comparison is problematic due to the inhomogenities of clouds and the low and different spatial resolutions of the SSM/I data. Global monthly mean values of Lnet for October 1989 are computed and compared to other sources. Differences are observed among the climatological values from previous studies by H.-J. Isemer and L. Hasse, the climatological values from R. Lindau and L. Hasse, the values of W. L. Darnell et al., and results from this study. Some structures of Lnet are similar for results from W. L. Darnell et al. and the present authors. The differences between both results are generally less than 15 W m−2. Over the North Atlantic Ocean the authors found a poleward increase for Lnet, which is contrary to the results of H.-J. Isemer and L. Hasse.

Description: The incidence angles of the SSM/I radiometers on the DMSP satellites vary from satellite to satellite and exhibit variations of up to 1.5° during one orbit. The effects of these variations on the measured brightness temperatures are investigated on the basis of simulated and measured data for oceanic arm. A deviation of 1° from the nominal incidence angle of 53.0° causes brightness temperature changes of up to 2 K depending on surface and atmospheric conditions. Errors of retrieved geophysical parameters on the order of 5%–10% result when the incidence angle variation is not taken into account. This is a common property of most published statistical algorithms. For total precipitable water and cloud liquid water content the error increases with increasing parameter value. For wind speed the error is largest for low wind speed and decreases with increasing wind speed. Due to the slowly varying latitudinal dependence of the incidence angle, these errors do not cancel out when monthly means are computed. A correction method is developed on the basis of simulated data and tested successfully with measured data. Observed brightness temperature differences between DMSP F10 and F11 are reduced when using corrected data. If diurnal variations of geophysical parameters are investigated, the incidence angle correction is mandatory to obtain useful results, especially for DMSP F10.

Description: In the autumn of 1996 the field component of an experiment designed to observe water mass transformation began in the Labrador Sea. Intense observations of ocean convection were taken in the following two winters. The purpose of the experiment was, by a combination of meteorological and oceanographic field observations, laboratory studies, theory, and modeling, to improve understanding of the convective process in the ocean and its representation in models. The dataset that has been gathered far exceeds previous efforts to observe the convective process anywhere in the ocean, both in its scope and range of techniques deployed. Combined with a comprehensive set of meteorological and air-sea flux measurements, it is giving unprecedented insights into the dynamics and thermodynamics of a closely coupled, semienclosed system known to have direct influence on the processes that control global climate.

Description: A dynamic–thermodynamic sea ice–mixed layer model for the Weddell Sea is complemented by a simple, diagnostic model to account for local sea ice–atmosphere interaction. To consider the atmospheric influence on the oceanic mixed layer, the pycnocline upwelling velocity is calculated using the theory of Ekman pumping. In several experiments, formation and conservation of a polynya in the Weddell Sea are investigated. Intrusion of heat into the lower atmosphere above the polynya area is assumed to cause a thermal perturbation and a cyclonic thermal wind field. Superposed with daily ECMWF surface winds, this modified atmospheric forcing field intensifies oceanic upwelling and induces divergent ice drift. Simulation results indicate that in case of a weak atmospheric cross-polynya flow the formation of a thermal wind field can significantly extend the lifetime of a large polynya. The repeated occurrence of the Weddell polynya in the years 1974–76 thus appears to be an effect of feedback mechanisms between sea ice, atmosphere, and oceanic mixed layer.

Description: Different processes have been proposed to explain the large-scale spreading of Mediterranean Water (MW) in the North Atlantic, however, no systematic study comparing the efficiency of different processes is yet available. Here, the authors present a series of experiments in a unified framework that is designed to quantify the effects of several physical processes on the spreading of MW in an idealized model of the North Atlantic. The common technique of restoring temperature and salinity to an observed distribution near the Mediterranean inflow fails to produce an adequate amount of MW because the eastern boundary region near the MW inflow is rather quiescent in models. Diapycnal processes like double diffusion and cabbeling turn out too inefficient to alone account for the large-scale MW anomaly. However, with a preexisting anomaly, double diffusion leads to a considerable northward and zonal redistribution of MW. The density anomaly induced by cabbeling curtails the zonal spreading of MW while it increases the northward spreading. With isopycnal mixing and the weak mean flow that prevails in the outflow region, a spatial distribution of the MW anomaly is obtained that is inconsistent with observations. Unrealistically high diffusion coefficients would be necessary to reproduce the observed salt flux into the Atlantic. The most effective process in the experiments is the volume flux associated with the Atlantic–Mediterranean exchange. The current system that is established in response to the inflow of MW into the Atlantic carries the anomaly almost 30° of longitude into the basin and along the eastern margin up to the northeastern corner of the domain and farther along the northern boundary.

Description: Parameterization of turbulent wind stress and sensible and latent heat fluxes is reviewed in the context of climate studies and model calculations, and specific formulas based on local measurements are recommended. Wind speed is of key importance, and in applying experimental results, the differences between local and modeled winds must be considered in terms of their method of observation or calculation. Climatological wind data based on Beaufort wind force reports require correction for historical trends. Integrated long-term net turbulent and radiative heat fluxes at the sea surface, calculated from archived data, are consistent with meridional heat transport through oceanographic sections; this lends support to the methods used

Description: The roles of ice particle size distributions (SDs) and particle shapes in cirrus cloud solar radiative transfer are investigated by analyzing SDs obtained from optical array probe measurements (particle sizes larger than 20–40 μm) during intensive field observations of the International Cirrus Experiment, the European Cloud and Radiation Experiment, the First ISCCP Regional Experiment, and the Central Equatorial Pacific Experiment. It is found that the cloud volume extinction coefficient is more strongly correlated with the total number density than with the effective particle size. Distribution-averaged mean single scattering properties are calculated for hexagonal columns, hexagonal plates, and polycrystals at a nonabsorbing (0.5 μm), moderately absorbing (1.6 μm), and strongly absorbing (3.0 μm) wavelength. At 0.5 μm (1.6 μm) (3.0 μm), the spread in the resulting mean asymmetry parameters due to different SDs is smaller than (comparable to) (smaller than) the difference caused by applying different particle shapes to these distributions. From a broadband solar radiative transfer point of view it appears more important to use the correct particle shapes than to average over the correct size distributions.

Description: A new optical disdrometer has been developed that is optimized for use in high wind speeds, for example, on board ships. The minimal detectable size of droplets is 0.35 mm. Each drop is measured separately with regard to its size and residence time within the sensitive volume. From the available information, the drop size distribution can be calculated with a resolution of 0.05 mm in diameter either by evaluation of the residence time of drops or by drop counting knowing the local wind. Experience shows that using the residence time leads to better results. Rain rates can be determined from the droplet spectra by assuming terminal fall velocity of the drops according to their size. Numerical modeling of disdrometer measurements has been performed, allowing the study of the effect of multiple occupancy of the sensitive volume and grazing incidences on disdrometer measurements. Based on these studies an iterative procedure has been developed to eliminate the impact of these effects on the calculated drop size distributions. This technique may also be applied to any other kind of disdrometer. Long-term simultaneous measurements of the disdrometer and a conventional rain gauge have been used to validate this procedure.

Description: The compatibility of the Gent and McWilliams thickness mixing parameterization with perturbation thickness fluxes evaluated from eddy-resolving North Atlantic model results is investigated. After extensive spatial and temporal averaging, a linear correlation between the parameterized fluxes and those calculated directly from model fluctuations in the subtropics could be found. A direct estimate of a constant mixing parameter κ could be inferred in the order of 1.0 × 107 cm2 s−1.

Description: A simple point-vortex “heton” model is used to study localized ocean convection. In particular, the statistically steady state that is established when lateral buoyancy transfer, effected by baroclinic instability, offsets the localized surface buoyancy loss is investigated. Properties of the steady state, such as the statistically steady density anomaly of the convection region, are predicted using the hypothesis of a balance between baroclinic eddy transfer and the localized surface buoyancy loss. These predictions compare favorably with the values obtained through numerical integration of the heton model. The steady state of the heron model can be related to that in other convection scenarios considered in several recent studies by means of a generalized description of the localized convection. This leads to predictions of the equilibrium density anomalies in these scenarios, which concur with those obtained by other authors. Advantages of the heton model include its inviscid nature, emphasizing the independence of the fluxes affected by the baroclinic eddies from molecular processes, and its extreme economy, allowing a very large parameter space to be covered. This economy allows us to examine more complicated forcing scenarios: for example, forcing regions of varying shape. By increasing the ellipticity of the forcing region, the instability is modified by the shape and, as a result, no increase in lateral fluxes occurs despite the increased perimeter length. The parameterization of convective mixing by a redistribution of potential vorticity, implicit in the heton model, is corroborated; the heton model equilibrium state has analogous quantitative scaling behavior to that in models or laboratory experiments that resolve the vertical motions. The simplified dynamics of the heton model therefore allows the adiabatic advection resulting from baroclinic instability to be examined in isolation from vertical mixing and diffusive processes. These results demonstrate the importance of baroclinic instability in controlling the properties of a water mass generated by localized ocean convection. A complete parameterization of this process must therefore account for the fluxes induced by horizontal variations in surface buoyancy loss and affected by baroclinic instability.

Description: On the basis of the collection of individual marine observations available from the Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set, major parameters of the sea state were evaluated. Climatological fields of wind waves and swell height and period, as well as significant wave height and resultant period are obtained for the North Atlantic Ocean for the period from 1964 to 1993. Validation of the results against instrumental records from National Data Buoy Center buoys and ocean weather station measurements indicate relatively good agreement for wave height and systematic biases in the visually estimated periods that were corrected. Wave age, which is important for wind stress estimates, was evaluated form wave and wind observations. The climatology of wave age indicates younger waves in winter in the North Atlantic midlatitudes and Tropics. Wave age estimates were applied to the calculations of the wind stress using parameterizations from field experiments. Differences between wave-age-based and traditional estimates are not negligible in wintertime in midlatitudes and Tropics where wave-induced stress contributes from 5% to 15% to the total stress estimates. Importance of the obtained effects for ocean circulation and climate variability is discussed.

Description: Analysis of modern and historical observations demonstrates that the temperature of the intermediate-depth (150–900 m) Atlantic water (AW) of the Arctic Ocean has increased in recent decades. The AW warming has been uneven in time; a local 1°C maximum was observed in the mid-1990s, followed by an intervening minimum and an additional warming that culminated in 2007 with temperatures higher than in the 1990s by 0.24°C. Relative to climatology from all data prior to 1999, the most extreme 2007 temperature anomalies of up to 1°C and higher were observed in the Eurasian and Makarov Basins. The AW warming was associated with a substantial (up to 75–90 m) shoaling of the upper AW boundary in the central Arctic Ocean and weakening of the Eurasian Basin upper-ocean stratification. Taken together, these observations suggest that the changes in the Eurasian Basin facilitated greater upward transfer of AW heat to the ocean surface layer. Available limited observations and results from a 1D ocean column model support this surmised upward spread of AW heat through the Eurasian Basin halocline. Experiments with a 3D coupled ice–ocean model in turn suggest a loss of 28–35 cm of ice thickness after 50 yr in response to the 0.5 W m−2 increase in AW ocean heat flux suggested by the 1D model. This amount of thinning is comparable to the 29 cm of ice thickness loss due to local atmospheric thermodynamic forcing estimated from observations of fast-ice thickness decline. The implication is that AW warming helped precondition the polar ice cap for the extreme ice loss observed in recent years.

Description: The importance of decadal climate variability (DCV) research is being increasingly recognized, including by the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). An improved understanding of DCV is very important because stakeholders and policymakers want to know the likely climate trajectory for the coming decades for applications to water resources, agriculture, energy, and infrastructure development. Responding to this demand, many climate modeling groups in the United States, Europe, Japan, and elsewhere are gearing up to assess the potential for decadal climate predictions. The magnitudes of regional DCV often exceed those associated with the trends resulting from anthropogenic changes. Therefore, differentiating between the two is also very important for planning, implementation, and national and international treaties.

Description: In the Gulf of Lions, observations of deep convection have been sporadically carried out over the past three decades, showing significant interannual variability of convection activity. As long time series of meteorological observations of the region are available from coastal stations, heat flux time series for the Gulf of Lions for the individual winters from 1969 to 1994 are derived by calibrating these observations against direct measurements obtained over the convection site. These heat fluxes are also compared against heat fluxes obtained by the French PERIDOT weather model for the winter of 1991/92. A Kraus–Turner one-dimensional mixed layer model is initialized by climatological mean temperature and salinity profiles and then driven by the heat flux time series of the individual years. Resulting convection depths are in satisfactory agreement with existing observational evidence, showing the dominance of interannual variability of local forcing on convection variability. The interannual variability of convection depth causes interannual variations in deep-water properties, and these are also compared with the hydrographic database.

Description: Previous attempts to derive the depth-dependent expression of the radiation stress have lead to a debate concerning (i) the applicability of Mellor’s approach to a sloping bottom, (ii) the introduction of the delta function at the mean sea surface in the later papers by Mellor, and (iii) a wave-induced pressure term derived in several recent studies. The authors use an equation system in vertically Lagrangian and horizontally Eulerian (VL) coordinates suitable for a concise treatment of the surface boundary, and obtain an expression for the depth-dependent radiation stress that is consistent with the vertically-integrated expression given by Longuet-Higgins and Stewart. Concerning (i)-(iii) in the above, the difficulty of handling a sloping bottom disappears when wave-averaged momentum equations in the VL coordinates are written for the development of (not the Lagrangian mean velocity but) the Eulerian mean velocity. There is also no delta function at the sea surface in the expression for the depth-dependent radiation stress. The connection between the wave-induced pressure term in the recent studies and the depth-dependent radiation stress term is easily shown by rewriting the pressure-based form stress term in the thickness-weighted-mean (TWM) momentum equations as a velocity-based term which contains the time derivative of the pseudomomentum in the TWM framework.

Description: Quasi-homogeneous layers in vertical profiles of temperature and salinity in the eastern North Atlantic near Madeira indicate the existence of a subtropical Mode Water in the Eastern Basin. Temperature sections show a maximum horizontal extent of at least 500 km. The frequency distribution analysis of homogeneous layers in a historical XBT dataset shows a Mode Water formation region near and to the north of Madeira. This Mode Water is found at increasing depths and displaced to the west and southwest during the course of the year after its formation by wintertime convection. It disappears almost completely, due to mixing, before the next winter. Volume estimates suggest that this Madeira Mode Water in the eastern Atlantic accounts for 15–20% of the total Central Water formation in the corresponding density range as obtained from tracer studies in the North Atlantic gyre.

Description: The inclination of oceanographic mooring lines due to current drag causes errors in time series observations of currents and temperatures. The prediction of this effect requires knowledge of the drag coefficients for the mooring components. Drag coefficients, known for simple geometric shapes such as spheres or cylinders, are commonly used for mooring response computations. Selected mooring components (buoyancy elements and instruments) were tested in a tow tank to determine their actual drag coefficients. Over the Reynolds Number range, typical of oceanic conditions, deviations of the drag coefficient up to 50% are found when compared with the appropriate simple geometric shape coefficients. A set of model moorings and model current profiles is used to determine the resulting changes in component depth level and displacement. The changes in horizontal displacement of the upper part of the mooring are on the order of 10% in extreme cases and 1% under typical conditions. Their effects on current measurements will usually be negligible. However, the related vertical displacements are on the order 100 to 10 m. Such vertical displacements may carry instruments to depth levels where currents and particularly thermocline temperatures are sufficiently different from the intended level to cause errors in the time series observations.

Description: Simulated transient-tracer distributions (tritium, 3H3, freons) on the isopycnal horizons σ0=26.5 and 26.8 kg m−3 are presented for the East Atlantic, 10° −40°N. Tracer transport is modeled by employing a baroclinic flow field based on empirical data in a kinematic isopycnal advection-diffusion numerical model, in which winter convection is taken as the mechanism of communication with the ocean surface layer, and the isopycnal diffusivity is a free parameter. Diapucnic transport is ignored. The simulations employ time-dependent tracer boundary conditions, which are constructed on the basis of available observations. Simulations are compared to data obtained on a meridional section in 1981 (F/S Meteor, cruise 56/5). Best simulations were obtained by means of a subjective optimization procedure. On both levels, the observed distributions and the best simulated distributions agree well. The fact that the surface boundary conditions and interior distributions of the tracers are distinctly different leads us to the conclusion that our model provides a consistent description of upper main-thermocline ventilation and interior transport Surface-water densities in February are found to represent adequately the winter outcrop boundaries with an uncertainty of about ±300 km across. The required isopycnal diffusivity south of 29°N is 1700 m2 s−1, and 2900 m2 s−1 further north (+70/−40%). Interior transport is found to be predominantly advective. Advective ventilation across 30.5°N east of 33°W amounts to only 12% and 40% for the 26.5 and 26.8 horizons of the total ventilation rates reported by Sarmiento. The North Atlantic/South Atlantic Central Water boundary near 15°N is found to be predominantly determined by advection.

Description: The upper ocean, including the biologically productive euphotic zone and the mixed layer, has great relevance for studies of physical, biogeochemical, and ecosystem processes and their interaction. Observing this layer with a continuous presence, sampling many of the relevant variables, and with sufficient vertical resolution, has remained a challenge. Here a system is presented which can be deployed on the top of deep-ocean moorings, with a drive mechanism at depths of 150-200m, which mechanically winches a large sensor float and smaller communications float tethered above it to the surface and back down again, typically twice per day for periods up to 1 year. The sensor float can carry several sizeable sensors, and it has enough buoyancy to reach the near surface and for the communications float to pierce the surface even in the presence of strong currents. The system can survive mooring blow-over to 1000m depth. The battery-powered design is made possible by using a balanced energy-conserving principle. Reliability is enhanced with a drive assembly that employs a single rotating part that has no slip rings or rotating seals. The profiling bodies can break the surface to sample the near-surface layer and to establish satellite communication for data relay or reception of new commands. An inductive pass-through mode allows communication with other mooring components throughout the water column beneath the system. A number of successful demonstration deployments have been completed.

Description: In recent years, profiling floats, which form the basis of the successful international Argo observatory, are also being considered as platforms for marine biogeochemical research. This study showcases the utility of floats as a novel tool for combined gas measurements of CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) and O2. These float prototypes were equipped with a small-sized and submersible pCO2 sensor and an optode O2 sensor for high resolution measurements in the surface ocean layer. Four consecutive deployments were carried out during Nov. 2010 and June 2011 near the Cape Verde Ocean Observatory (CVOO) in the eastern tropical North Atlantic. The profiling float performed upcasts every 31 h while measuring pCO2, O2, salinity, temperature and hydrostatic pressure in the upper 200 m of the water column. In order to maintain accuracy, regular pCO2 sensor zeroings at depth and surface, as well as optode measurements in air, were performed for each profile. Through the application of data processing procedures (e.g., time-lag correction) accuracies of float-borne pCO2 measurements were greatly improved (10 – 15 μatm for water column and 5 μatm for surface measurements). O2 measurements yielded an accuracy of 2 μmol kg−1. First results of this pilot study show the possibility of using profiling floats as a platform for detailed and unattended observations of the marine carbon and oxygen cycle dynamics.

Description: Simple idealized layered models and primitive equation models show that the meridional gradient of the zonally averaged pressure has no direct relation with the meridional flow. This demonstrates a contradiction in an often-used parameterization in zonally averaged models. The failure of this parameterization reflects the inconsistency between the model of Stommel and Arons and the box model of Stommel, as previously pointed out by Straub. A new closure is proposed. The ocean is divided in two dynamically different regimes: a narrow western boundary layer and an interior ocean; zonally averaged quantities over these regions are considered. In the averaged equations three unknowns appear: the interior zonal pressure difference Delta p(i), the zonal pressure difference Delta p(b) of the boundary layer, and the zonal velocity us at the interface between the two regions. Here Delta p(i) is parameterized using a frictionless vorticity balance, Delta p(b), by the difference of the mean pressure in the interior and western boundary, and u(delta) by the mean zonal velocity of the western boundary layer. Zonally resolved models, a layer model, and a primitive equation model validate the new parameterization by comparing with the respective zonally averaged counterparts. It turns out that the zonally averaged models reproduce well the buoyancy distribution and the meridional flow in the zonally resolved model versions with respect to the mean and time changes.

Description: The use of a coupled ocean/atmosphere/sea-ice model to hindcast (i.e. historical forecast) recent climate variability is described and illustrated for the cases of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shift events in the Pacific. The initialization is achieved by running the coupled model in partially coupled mode whereby global observed wind stress anomalies are used to drive the ocean/sea-ice component of the coupled model while maintaining the thermodynamic coupling between the ocean/sea-ice and atmosphere components. Here we show that hindcast experiments can successfully capture many features associated with the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shifts. For instance, hindcast experiments started from the beginning of 1976 can capture sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific and the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) throughout the 9 years following the 1976/77 climate shift, including the deepening of the Aleutian low pressure system. Hindcast experiments started from the beginning of 1998 can also capture part of the anomalous conditions during the 4 years after the 1998/99 climate. We argue that the dynamical adjustment of heat content anomalies that are present in the initial conditions in the tropics is important for the successful hindcast of the two climate shifts.

Description: Long-term temperature and current-meter records from moorings in the northern Canary Basin display strong current events with time scales between one and three months and large vertical scales of several thousand meters. The data are compared to hydrographic surveys in the area that show a meandering subtropical front. The strong current events are found to be related to the passage of the front through the mooring positions. An analysis of composite time series, for selected depths, indicates cases of westward and of eastward propagation of frontal meanders. The frontal pattern is also found in geopotential anomalies inferred from historical XBT data sets, suggesting that the front is a persistent feature of the density field. In two cases strong current events appear to be related to a Mediterranean Water lens.

Description: The Cape Verde Frontal Zone separates the North and the South Atlantic Central Waters in the eastern North Atlantic. It also represents the boundary between the ventilated subtropical gyre and the quasi-stagnant shadow zone in the southeast. The thermohaline front is nearly compensated with respect to density, and density parameters RP, suggest the existence of double-diffusive processes. Datasets from three cruises to the region, approximately one year apart each, are used to determine the effects of double-diffusive diapycnal versus isopycnal mixing. For this purpose results from the usual temperature-salinity analysis assuming isopycnal mixing are compared to results from a multiparameter analysis where nutrient and oxygen data are also used. Significant diapycnal fluxes are found in the frontal zone between 200 and 300 m, with water mass contents being changed by more than 20% through diapycnal mixing. The associated buoyancy fluxes have a similar magnitude as surface fluxes in the area and thus represent an important contribution to the vertical balances of heat and salt.

Description: The tropical Atlantic wind response to El Niño forcing is robust, with weakened northeast trade winds north of the equator and strengthened southeast trade winds along and south of the equator. However, the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific and Atlantic is inconsistent, with El Niño events followed sometimes by warm and other times by cold boreal summer anomalies in the Atlantic cold tongue region. Using observational data and a hindcast simulation of the Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO) global model at 0.5° resolution (NEMO-ORCA05), this inconsistent SST relationship is shown to be at least partly attributable to a delayed negative feedback in the tropical Atlantic that is active in years with a warm or neutral response in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. In these years, the boreal spring warming in the northern tropical Atlantic that is a typical response to El Niño is pronounced, setting up a strong meridional SST gradient. This leads to a negative wind stress curl anomaly to the north of the equator that generates downwelling Rossby waves. When these waves reach the western boundary, they are reflected into downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves that reach the cold tongue region in late boreal summer to counteract the initial cooling that is due to the boreal winter wind stress response to El Niño. In contrast, this initial cooling persists or is amplified in years in which the boreal spring northern tropical Atlantic warming is weak or absent either because of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase or an early termination of the Pacific El Niño event.

Description: Widespread and sustained in situ ocean measurements are essential to an improved understanding of the state of the ocean and its role in global change. Merchant marine vessels can play a major role in ocean monitoring, yet apart from routine weather observations and upper-ocean temperature measurements, they constitute a vastly underutilized resource due to lack of suitable instrumentation. Examples of ways in which vessels can assist include profiling techniques of physical properties, chemical sampling via automated water samplers, optical techniques to measure various biological parameters, and ground truth measurements for remote sensing from orbiting and geostationary satellites. Further, ships can act as relays between subsurface instrumentation and satellite communication services. To take advantage of the opportunities that the maritime industry can provide, two steps must be taken. The first is to initiate an instrumentation development program with emphasis on techniques optimized for highly automated use onboard ships at 15-20-kt speeds. The second is to forge partnerships or links between academic and government laboratories and the maritime industry for the institution and maintenance of such monitoring programs. No doubt significant resources will be required, but in the long run the improved ability to monitor the state of ocean in situ will make the effort more than worthwhile.

Description: Data from almost five years of current meter moorings located across the Bahamas Escarpment at 26.5 degrees N are used to investigate meridional heat transport variability in the section and its impact on transatlantic heat Aux. Estimates of heat transport derived from the moored arrays are compared to results from the Community Modeling Effort (CME) Atlantic basin model and to historical hydrographic section data. A large fraction of the entire transatlantic heat flux is observed in this western boundary region, due to the opposing warm and cold water flows associated with the Antilles Current in the thermocline and the deep western boundary current at depth. Local heat transport time series derived from the moored arrays exhibit large variability over a range of +/- 2 PW relative to 0 degrees C, on timescales of roughly 100 days. An annual cycle of local heat transport with a range of 1.4 PW is observed with a summer maximum and fall minimum, qualitatively similar to CME model results. Breakdown of the total heat transport into conventional ''barotropic'' (depth averaged) and ''baroclinic'' (transport independent) components indicates an approximately equal contribution from both components. The annual mean value of the baroclinic hear transport in the western boundary layer is 0.53 +/- 0.08 PW northward, of opposite direction and more than half the magnitude of the total southward baroclinic heat transport between Africa and the Bahamas (about -0.8 PW) derived from transatlantic sections. Combination of the results from the moored arrays with Levitus climatology in the interior and historical Florida Current data yields an estimate of 1.44 +/- 0.33 PW for the annual mean transatlantic heat Aux at 26.5 degrees N, approximately 0.2 PW greater than the previously accepted value of 1.2-1.3 PW at this latitude.

Description: The predictability of the coupled ocean–atmosphere climate system on interannual to decadal timescales has been studied by means of ensemble forecast experiments with a global coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. Over most parts of the globe the model’s predictability can be sufficiently explained by damped persistence as expected from the stochastic climate model concept with damping times of considerably less than a year. Nevertheless, the tropical Pacific and the North Atlantic Ocean exhibit oscillatory coupled ocean–atmosphere modes, which lead to longer predictability timescales. While the tropical mode shares many similarities with the observed ENSO phenomenon, the coupled mode within the North Atlantic region exhibits a typical period of about 30 yr and relies on an interaction of the oceanic thermohaline circulation and the atmospheric North Atlantic oscillation. The model’s ENSO-like oscillation is predictable up to one-third to one-half (2–3 yr) of the oscillation period both in the ocean and the atmosphere. The North Atlantic yields considerably longer predictability timescales (of the order of a decade) only for quantities describing the model’s thermohaline circulation. For surface quantities and atmospheric variables only marginal predictability (of the order of a year) was obtained. The predictability of the coupled signal at the surface is destroyed by the large amount of internally generated (weather) noise. This is illustrated by means of a simple conceptual model for coupled ocean–atmosphere variability and predictability.

Description: The role of anomalous Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) in forcing east African rainfall anomalies during December–January 1997/98 has been investigated by means of atmospheric model response experiments. It is shown that the strong precipitation anomalies that led to severe flooding over eastern equatorial Africa can be directly related to the contemporaneous changes in the Indian Ocean’s SST. The authors’ set of ensemble experiments prescribing SST anomalies in different ocean basins indicates further that the El Niño–related SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific did not directly drive the changes in the climate over eastern Africa.

Description: The authors have investigated the interactions of the tropical oceans on interannual timescales by conducting a series of uncoupled atmospheric and oceanic general circulation experiments and hybrid-coupled model simulations. The results illustrate the key role of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon in generating interannual variability in all three tropical ocean basins. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific force SST anomalies of the same sign in the Indian Ocean and SST anomalies of the opposite sign in the Atlantic via a changed atmospheric circulation. However, although air-sea interactions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans are much weaker than those in the Pacific, they contribute significantly to the variability in these two regions. The role of these air-sea interactions is mainly that of an amplifier by which the ENSO-induced signals are enhanced in the ocean and atmosphere. This process is particularly important in the tropical Atlantic region. The authors investigated, also, whether ENSO is part of a zonally propagating “wave,” which travels around the globe with a timescale of several years. Consistent with observations, the upper-ocean heat content in the various numerical simulators seems to propagate slowly around the globe. SST anomalies in the Pacific Ocean introduce a global atmospheric response, which in turn forces variations in the other tropical oceans. Since the different oceans exhibit different response characteristics to low-frequency wind changes, the individual tropical ocean responses can add up coincidentally to look like a global wave, and that appears to be the situation. In particular, no evidence is found that the Indian Ocean can significantly affect the ENSO cycle in the Pacific. Finally, the potential for climate forecasts in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans appears to be enhanced if one includes, in a coupled way, remote influences from the Pacific.

Description: The physics of the Indo–Pacific warm pool are investigated using a coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation model. The model, developed at the Max-Planck-Institut fair Meteorologic, Hamburg, does not employ a flux correction and is used with atmospheres at T42 and T21 resolution. The simulations are compared with observations, and the model's mean and seasonal heat budgets and physics in the Indo–Pacific warm pool region are explored for the T42 resolution run. Despite the simulation of a split intertropical convergence zone, and of a cold tongue that extends too far to the west, simulated warm pool temperatures are consistent with observations at T42 resolution, while the T21 resolution yields a cold bias of 1K. At T42 resolution the seasonal migration of the warm pool is reproduced reasonably well, as are the surface heat fluxes, winds, and clouds. However, simulated precipitation is too small compared to observations, implying that the surface density flux is dominated by fluxes of heat. In the Pacific portion of the warm pool, the average net heat gain of the ocean amounts to 30–40 W m−2. In the northern branch, this heat gain is balanced by vertical advection, while in the southern branch, zonal, meridional, and vertical advection cool the ocean at approximately equal rates. At the equator, the surface heat flux is balanced by zonal and vertical advection and vertical mixing. The Indonesian and Indian Ocean portions of the warm pool receive from the atmosphere 30 and 50 W m−2, respectively, and this flux is balanced by vertical advection. The cooling due to vertical advection stems from numerical diffusion associated with the upstream scheme, the coarse vertical resolution of the ocean model, and near-inertial oscillations forced by high-frequency atmospheric variability. The seasonal migration of the warm pool is largely a result of the seasonal variability of the net surface heat flux, horizontal and vertical advections are of secondary importance and increase the seasonal range of surface temperature slightly everywhere in the warm pool, with the exception of its southern branch. There, advection reduces the effect of the surface flux. The seasonal variability of the surface heat flux in turn is mainly determined by the shortwave radiation, but evaporation modifies the signal significantly. The annual cycles of reduction of solar radiation due to clouds and SST evolve independently from each other in the Pacific portion of the warm pool; that is, clouds have little impact on SST. In the Indian Ocean, however, clouds limit the maximum SST attained during the annual cycle. In the western Pacific and Indonesian portion of the warm pool, penetrative shortwave radiation leads to convective mixing by heating deeper levels at a greater rate than the surface, which experiences heat losses due to turbulent and longwave heat fluxes. In the deeper levels, there is no mechanism to balance the heating due to penetrative radiation, except convection and its attendant mixing. In the Indian Ocean, however. the resulting vertical heating profile due to the surface fluxes decreases monotonically with depth and does not support convective mixing. Concurrently, the warm pool is shallower in the Indian Ocean compared with the western Pacific, indicating that convective mixing due to penetrative radiation is important in maintaining the vertical structure of the Pacific portion of the warm pool.

Description: Initial-value predictability measures the degree to which the initial state can influence predictions. In this paper, the initial-value predictability of six atmosphere–ocean general circulation models in the North Pacific and North Atlantic is quantified and contrasted by analyzing long control integrations with time invariant external conditions. Through the application of analog and multivariate linear regression methodologies, average predictability properties are estimated for forecasts initiated from every state on the control trajectories. For basinwide measures of predictability, the influence of the initial state tends to last for roughly a decade in both basins, but this limit varies widely among the models, especially in the North Atlantic. Within each basin, predictability varies regionally by as much as a factor of 10 for a given model, and the locations of highest predictability are different for each model. Model-to-model variations in predictability are also seen in the behavior of prominent intrinsic basin modes. Predictability is primarily determined by the mean of forecast distributions rather than the spread about the mean. Horizontal propagation plays a large role in the evolution of these signals and is therefore a key factor in differentiating the predictability of the various models.

Description: Sudden stratospheric warmings are prominent examples of dynamical wave–mean flow interactions in the Arctic stratosphere during Northern Hemisphere winter. They are characterized by a strong temperature increase on time scales of a few days and a strongly disturbed stratospheric vortex. This work investigates a wide class of supervised learning methods with respect to their ability to classify stratospheric warmings, using temperature anomalies from the Arctic stratosphere and atmospheric forcings such as ENSO, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and the solar cycle. It is demonstrated that one representative of the supervised learning methods family, namely nonlinear neural networks, is able to reliably classify stratospheric warmings. Within this framework, one can estimate temporal onset, duration, and intensity of stratospheric warming events independently of a particular pressure level. In contrast to classification methods based on the zonal-mean zonal wind, the approach herein distinguishes major, minor, and final warmings. Instead of a binary measure, it provides continuous conditional probabilities for each warming event representing the amount of deviation from an undisturbed polar vortex. Additionally, the statistical importance of the atmospheric factors is estimated. It is shown how marginalized probability distributions can give insights into the interrelationships between external factors. This approach is applied to 40-yr and interim ECMWF (ERA-40/ERA-Interim) and NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data for the period from 1958 through 2010.

Description: To study the dynamics that may lead to decadal oscillations in the North Pacific a simple coupled model is developed. The ocean is based on the linear, potential vorticity equation for baroclinic planetary waves. The atmosphere is reduced to a nonlocal wind response to thermocline depth anomalies. The wind stress has a spatially fixed structure and its amplitude depends on the thermocline perturbation at one location or in a predefined index region. Such a simple coupled model produces decadal oscillations for suitable parameter choices. For realistic wind stress patterns, the patterns of oceanic variability are similar to those observed. It is determined by the speed of long Rossby waves at the coupling latitude. The period of the oscillation is rather insensitive to the coupling strength and amounts to approximately twice the time the Rossby wave needs to travel from the center of the wind stress curl anomaly to the coupling location. A stochastic component to the atmospheric forcing is incorporated by white noise added to the feedback. With such a forcing, typical oceanic spectra become red with a broad peak at decadal timescales superimposed.

Description: A primitive equation World Ocean model has been integrated with restoring boundary conditions to reach a steady state. The global distribution of potential temperature, salinity, and meridional streamfunction are consistent with observations. In steady state, the effective freshwater fluxes were diagnosed, and the model has been integrated further prescribing these freshwater fluxes. The ocean circulation undergoes self-sustained oscillations over a wide range of timescales, ranging from decadal to millennium. Most pronounced are self-sustained oscillations with a timescale of 20, 300, and 1000 years. The latter two oscillations are coupled. They consist of density (salinity) anomalies that circulate through the global conveyor belt, periodically enhancing convection in the Southern Ocean and limiting convection in the northern North Atlantic. The timescale is set by the vertical diffusion, which destabilizes the stratification in the Southern Ocean when convection is weak. The 20-yr oscillation is a coupled salinity and sea ice thickness anomaly propagating around Antarctica.

Description: A primitive equation model of the equatorial Pacific Ocean was forced by realistic wind stress distributions over decades. Results were presented for a set of two experiments. In the first experiment the model was forced by an objectively analyzed wind field, while for the second experiment a subjectively analyzed wind field was used. The results indicate a strong sensitivity of the model to the choice of the wind fields. Especially, model results in the eastern Pacific show big differences between the two model runs. Taking the results of the second model run the performance of the model with respect to interannual variability is investigated. Sea level, temperature and zonal currents show pronounced interannual variations within the equatorial belt from 10°N to 10°S. Special attention is given to the simulation of the 1982/83 El Niño event. The model reproduces most of the basic features, which were observed during this El Niño event. In particular the deceleration of the equatorial undercurrent, the evolution of eastward surface currents and the zonal redistribution of heat associated with an eastward propagation of warm water are simulated by the model.

Description: To analyze the probability density distributions of surface turbulent heat fluxes, the authors apply the twoparametric modified Fisher–Tippett (MFT) distribution to the sensible and latent turbulent heat fluxes recomputed from 6-hourly NCEP–NCAR reanalysis state variables for the period from 1948 to 2008. They derived the mean climatology and seasonal cycle of the location and scale parameters of the MFT distribution. Analysis of the parameters of probability distributions identified the areas where similar surface turbulent fluxes are determined by the very different shape of probability density functions. Estimated extreme turbulent heat fluxes amount to 1500–2000 W m22 (for the 99th percentile) and can exceed 2000 W m22 for higher percentiles in the subpolar latitudes and western boundary current regions. Analysis of linear trends and interannual variability in the mean and extreme fluxes shows that the strongest trends in extreme fluxes (more than 15 W m22 decade21) in the western boundary current regions are associated with the changes in the shape of distribution. In many regions changes in extreme fluxes may be different from those for the mean fluxes at interannual and decadal time scales. The correlation between interannual variability of themean and extreme fluxes is relatively low in the tropics, the SouthernOcean, and the Kuroshio Extension region.Analysis of probability distributions in turbulent fluxes has also been used in assessing the impact of sampling errors in theVoluntaryObserving Ship (VOS)-based surface flux climatologies, allowed for the estimation of the impact of sampling in extreme fluxes. Although sampling does not have a visible systematic effect onmean fluxes, sampling uncertainties result in the underestimation of extreme flux values exceeding 100 W m22 in poorly sampled regions.

Description: Continuous estimates of the oceanic meridional heat transport in the Atlantic are derived from the Rapid Climate Change–Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) and Heatflux Array (RAPID–MOCHA) observing system deployed along 26.5°N, for the period from April 2004 to October 2007. The basinwide meridional heat transport (MHT) is derived by combining temperature transports (relative to a common reference) from 1) the Gulf Stream in the Straits of Florida; 2) the western boundary region offshore of Abaco, Bahamas; 3) the Ekman layer [derived from Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) wind stresses]; and 4) the interior ocean monitored by “endpoint” dynamic height moorings. The interior eddy heat transport arising from spatial covariance of the velocity and temperature fields is estimated independently from repeat hydrographic and expendable bathythermograph (XBT) sections and can also be approximated by the array. The results for the 3.5 yr of data thus far available show a mean MHT of 1.33 ± 0.40 PW for 10-day-averaged estimates, on which time scale a basinwide mass balance can be reasonably assumed. The associated MOC strength and variability is 18.5 ± 4.9 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). The continuous heat transport estimates range from a minimum of 0.2 to a maximum of 2.5 PW, with approximately half of the variance caused by Ekman transport changes and half caused by changes in the geostrophic circulation. The data suggest a seasonal cycle of the MHT with a maximum in summer (July–September) and minimum in late winter (March–April), with an annual range of 0.6 PW. A breakdown of the MHT into “overturning” and “gyre” components shows that the overturning component carries 88% of the total heat transport. The overall uncertainty of the annual mean MHT for the 3.5-yr record is 0.14 PW or about 10% of the mean value.

Description: The relative importance of the formation of different North Atlantic Deep Water masses on the meridional overturning is examined with a non-eddy-resolving version of the CME model. In contrast to a frequently held belief, convective deep-water formation south of the North Atlantic sill does not significantly force the large-scale overturning if an adequate overflow across the sill can be represented by the model. The sensitivity of the meridional transport to the surface thermohaline forcing is increased under alternate climatic conditions such as increased surface cooling or reduced overflow compared to the present-day situation. The results indicate that climate models may be too sensitive to decadal timescale variability of the surface forcing in subpolar regions.

Description: A primitive equation model to study the dynamics of the Agulhas system has been developed. The model domain covers the South Atlantic and the south Indian Ocean with a resolution of ⅓° in the Agulhas region while coarser outside. It is driven by a climatology of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. It is shown that the model simulates the Agulhas Current, its retroflection, and the ring shedding successfully. The model results show baroclinic anticyclonic eddies in the Mozambique Channel and east of Madagascar, which travel toward the northern Agulhas Current. After the eddies reach the current they are advected southward with the mean flow. Due to the limited numerical resolution only a few eddies reach the retroflection region without much modification. These eddies are responsible for drastic enhancement of the heat transfer from the Indian Ocean to the South Atlantic and lead to periodicities in the interoceanic heat transport of about 50 days superimposed on the seasonal variability. Combined satellite data from TOPEX/Poseidon and ERS-1 show that the observed vortices in the Mozambique Channel are comparable to those seen in the model. In contrast to this the simulated eddies east of Madagascar seem not to be well reproduced. Analyses of the energy conversion terms between the mean flow and the eddies suggest that barotropic instability plays an important role in the generation of Mozambique Channel eddies. For the generation of Agulhas rings and other eddy structures in the model the barotropic instability mechanism seems to be minor, and baroclinic instability mechanisms are more likely.

Description: The 20th century Northern Hemisphere surface climate exhibits a long-term warming trend, largely caused by anthropogenic forcing, and natural decadal climate variability superimposed on it. This study addresses the possible origin and strength of internal decadal climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the recent decades. We present results from a set of climate model simulations that suggest natural internal multidecadal climate variability in the North Atlantic-Arctic Sector could have considerably contributed to the Northern Hemisphere surface warming since 1980. Although covering only a few percent of the earth’s surface, the Arctic may have provided the largest share in this. It is hypothesized that a stronger Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Atlantic and the associated increase in northward heat transport enhanced the heat loss from the ocean to the atmosphere in the North Atlantic region, and especially in the North Atlantic portion of the Arctic due to anomalously strong sea ice melt. The model results stress the potential importance of natural internal multidecadal variability originating in the North Atlantic-Arctic Sector in generating inter-decadal climate changes not only on a regional, but possibly also on a hemispheric and even global scale.

Description: One of the most remarkable features of the reproductive systems of eubrachyuran crabs is the presence of specialized organs for sperm storage, the seminal receptacles. Descriptions of seminal receptacle morphology, sperm storage time, sperm retention across molts, and the capacity to store multiple ejaculates from different males can help in understanding crab mating strategies as well as in preventing negative effects of male-biased fisheries of heavily harvested species. Metacarcinus edwardsii is the most harvested crab in Chile, but its reproductive biology is largely unstudied. In this study, the morphology of the seminal receptacles of M. edwardsii is characterized from the macroscopic to the microscopic level, during key points in the reproductive cycle. The receptacles of experimentally mated and wild-caught females were included in this analysis. Metacarcinus edwardsii has ventral-type seminal receptacles that are able to retain sperm after molting, and even after extrusion of the eggs. Stratification of multiple ejaculates is clearly observed. In general, the pattern of sperm storage indicates that populations of this species, like those of other cancrid crabs, could have high resilience to the negative effects of the selective harvest of males, principally because females have a great sperm storage capacity.

Description: The dominant variability modes in the Tropics are investigated and contrasted with the anomalous situation observed during the last few years. The prime quantity analyzed is anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) in the region 30°S–60°N. Additionally, observed tropical surface wind stress fields were investigated. Further tropical atmospheric information was derived from a multidecadal run with an atmospheric general circulation model that was forced by the same SSTs. The tropical SST variability can be characterized by three modes: an interannual mode [the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)], a decadal mode, and a trend or unresolved ultra-low-frequency variability. The dominant mode of SST variability is the ENSO mode. It is strongest in the eastern equatorial Pacific, but influences also the SSTs in other regions through atmospheric teleconnections, such as the Indian and North Pacific Oceans. The ENSO mode was strong during the 1980s, but it existed with very weak amplitude and short period after 1991. The second most energetic mode is characterized by considerable decadal variability. This decadal mode is connected with SST anomalies of the same sign in all three tropical oceans. The tropical Pacific signature of the decadal mode resembles closely that observed during the last few years and can be characterized by a horseshoe pattern, with strongest SST anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific, extending to the northeast and southeast into the subtropics. It is distinct from the ENSO mode, since it is not connected with any significant SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which is the ENSO key region. However, the impact of the decadal mode on the tropical climate resembles in many respects that of ENSO. In particular, the decadal mode is strongly linked to decadal rainfall fluctuations over northeastern Australia in the observations. It is shown that the anomalous 1990s were dominated by the decadal mode. Considerable SST variability can be attributed also to a linear trend or unresolved ultra-low-frequency variability. This trend that might be related to greenhouse warming is rather strong and positive in the Indian Ocean and western equatorial Pacific where it accounts for up to 30% of the total SST variability. Consistent with the increase of SST in the warm pool region, the trends over the tropical Pacific derived from both the observations and the model indicate a strengthening of the trade winds. This is inconsistent with the conditions observed during the 1990s. If the wind trends reflect greenhouse warming, it must be concluded that the anomalous 1990s are not caused by greenhouse warming. Finally, hybrid coupled ocean–atmosphere model experiments were conducted in order to investigate the sensistivity of ENSO to the low-frequency changes induced by the decadal mode and the trend. The results indicate that ENSO is rather sensitive to these changes in the background conditions.

Description: The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is modeled as a stochastically driven dynamical system. This was accomplished by adding to a Hybrid Coupled Model (HCM) of the tropical Pacific ocean–atmosphere system a stochastic wind stress anomaly field that was derived from observations. The model exhibits irregular interannual fluctuations, whose space–time characteristics resemble those of the observed interannual climate variability in this region. To investigate the predictability of the model, the authors performed ensemble integrations with different realizations of the stochastic wind stress forcing. The ensembles were initialized at various phases of the model’s ENSO cycle simulated in a 120-yr integration with a particular noise realization. The numerical experiments indicate that the ENSO predictability is severely limited by the stochastic wind stress forcing. Linear stochastic processes were fitted to the restart ensembles in a reduced state space. A predictability measure based on a comparison of the stationary and the time-dependent probability distributions of the fitted linear models reveals an ENSO predictability limit of considerably less than an average cycle length.

Description: The water mass structure of the Arctic Ocean is remarkable, for its intermediate (depth range ~150–900 m) layer is filled with warm (temperature 〉0°C) and salty water of Atlantic origin (usually called the Atlantic Water, AW). This water is carried into and through the Arctic Ocean by the pan-Arctic boundary current, which moves cyclonically along the basins’ margins (Fig. 1). This system provides the largest input of water, heat, and salt into the Arctic Ocean; the total quantity of heat is substantial, enough to melt the Arctic sea ice cover several times over. By utilizing an extensive archive of recently collected observational data, this study provides a cohesive picture of recent large-scale changes in the AW layer of the Arctic Ocean. These recent observations show the warm pulse of AW that entered the Arctic Ocean in the early 1990s finally reached the Canada Basin during the 2000s. The second warm pulse that entered the Arctic Ocean in the mid-2000s has moved through the Eurasian Basin and is en route downstream. One of the most intriguing results of these observations is the realization of the possibility of uptake of anomalous AW heat by overlying layers, with possible implications for an already-reduced Arctic ice cover.

Description: Many models of the large-scale thermohaline circulation in the ocean exhibit strong zonally integrated upwelling in the midlatitude North Atlantic that significantly decreases the amount of deep water that is carried from the formation regions in the subpolar North Atlantic toward low latitudes and across the equator. In an analysis of results from the Community Modeling Effort using a suite of models with different horizontal resolution, wind and thermohaline forcing, and mixing parameters, it is shown that the upwelling is always concentrated in the western boundary layer between roughly 30° and 40°N. The vertical transport across 1000 m appears to be controlled by local dynamics and strongly depends on the horizontal resolution and mixing parameters of the model. It is suggested that in models with a realistic deep-water formation rate in the subpolar North Atlantic, the excessive upwelling can be considered as the prime reason for the typically too low meridional overturning rates and northward heat transports in the subtropical North Atlantic. A new isopycnal advection and mixing parameterization of tracer transports by mesoscale eddies yield substantial improvements in these integral measures of the circulation.