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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk  (9)
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.06. Surveys, measurements, and monitoring  (3)
  • Inversion
  • Seismological Society of America  (11)
  • EGU  (1)
  • 3
  • Wiley
  • 2015-2019  (12)
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  • 1
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    Seismological Society of America
    Publication Date: 2018-03-12
    Description: The paper has not any abstract
    Description: Published
    Description: 720-727
    Description: 2T. Sorgente Sismica
    Description: 1IT. Reti di monitoraggio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Earthquake ; Monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.06. Surveys, measurements, and monitoring
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-11-29
    Description: The project KnowRISK (Know your city, Reduce seISmic risK through non-structural elements) is financed by the European Commission to develop prevention measures that may reduce non-structural damage in urban areas. Pilot areas of the project are within the three European participating countries, namely Portugal, Iceland and Italy. Non-structural components of a building include all those components that are not part of the structural system, more specifically the architectural, mechanical, electrical, and plumbing systems, as well as furniture, fixtures, equipment, and contents. Windows, partitions, granite veneer, piping, ceilings, air conditioning ducts and equipment, elevators, computer and hospital equipment, file cabinets, and retail merchandise are all examples of nonstructural components that are vulnerable to earthquake damage. We will use the experience gained during past earthquakes, which struck in particular Iceland, Italy and Portugal (Azores). Securing the non-structural elements improves the safety during an earthquake and saves lives. This paper aims at identifying non-structural seismic protection measures in the pilot areas and to develop a portfolio of good practices for the most common and serious non-structural vulnerabilities. This systematic identification and the portfolio will be achieved through a “crossknowledge” strategy based on previous researches, evidence of non-structural damage in past earthquakes. Shake table tests of a group of non-structural elements will be performed. These tests will be filmed and, jointly with portfolio, will serve as didactic supporting tools to be used in workshops with building construction stakeholders and in risk communication activities. A Practical Guide for non-structural risk reduction will be specifically prepared for citizens on the basis of the outputs of the project, taking into account the local culture and needs of each participating country
    Description: Published
    Description: Vienna
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: damage ; non-structural elements ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Poster session
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2021-06-21
    Description: The seismological community is currently developing operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) systems that aim to estimate, based on continuous ground motion recording by seismic networks, the rates of events exceeding a certain magnitude threshold in an area of interest and in a short-period of time (days to weeks); i.e., the seismicity. OEF may be possibly used for short-term seismic risk management in regions affected by seismic swarms only if its results may be the input to compute, in a probabilistically sound manner, consequence-based risk metrics. The present paper reports the investigation about feasibility of short-term risk assessment, or operational earthquake loss forecasting (OELF), in Italy. The approach is that of performance-based earthquake engineering, where the loss rates are computed by means of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. The risk is expressed in terms of individual and regional measures, which are based on short-term macroseismic intensity, or ground motion intensity, hazard. The vulnerability of the built environment relies on damage probability matrices empirically calibrated for Italian structural classes, and exposure data in terms of buildings per vulnerability class and occupants per building typology. All vulnerability and exposure data are at the municipality scale. The procedure set-up, which is virtually independent on the seismological model used, is implemented in an experimental OELF system, which continuously process OEF information to produce weekly nationwide risk maps. This is illustrated by a retrospective application to the 2012 Pollino (southern Italy) seismic sequence, which provides insights on the capabilities of the system and on the impact, on short-term risk assessment, of the methodology currently used for OEF in Italy.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2286-2298
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: operational earthquake forecasting ; seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2021-03-04
    Description: Macroseismic investigation with data collected through web- based questionnaires is today routinely applied by most impor- tant seismological institutions, such as the U.S. Geological Survey (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/dyfi/; last accessed December 2014), British Geological Survey (http://www. earthquakes.bgs.ac.uk/questionnaire/EqQuestIntro.html; last accessed December 2014), European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/Contribute/ choose_earthquake.php?lang=en; last accessed December 2014), Schweizerische Erdbebendienst (http://www.seismo.ethz. ch/eq/detected/eq_form/index_EN; last accessed December 2014), Bureau Central Sismologique Français (http://www .seisme.prd.fr/english.php; last accessed December 2014), and the New Zealand GeoNet project (http://www.geonet.org.nz/ quakes/; last accessed December 2014). The wide diffusion of Internet and the citizen collaboration (crowdsourcing) allow documentation of information on seismic effects and production of a macroseismic field with low costs and almost in real time. Transformation from qualitative information (as given by ques- tionnaires) to numerical quantification is a crucial issue. In the traditional evaluation of intensity, experts used to work through a complex comparison of effects basically driven by personal expe- rience. The major problem with this approach concerns the dif- ficulty in verifing and reproducing the evaluation process due to the lack of a detailed explanation of the employed workflow and to the large variability of possible cases. On the other hand, an automatic method for the estimation of macroseismic intensities needs to be completely well defined and specified in order to be reproducible and verifiable. For these reasons, this paper presents a comprehensive explanation of our intensity assessment method. A useful automatic method for intensity assessment should be computationally fast and strictly follow the macroseismic scales. To meet these requirements in 2010, we proposed a method that firstly quantified the effects using additive scores associated with each answer of the questionnaire item and then determined an intensity estimate for each questionnaire (Sbarra et al., 2010). After a trial period and having collected more than 500,000 questionnaires, we were able to thoroughly test the method. As a result of this testing, we describe here a new improved method that takes into account further factors, such as the situation and the location of the observer (Sbarra et al., 2012, 2014), to obtain a more accurate estimate of the macroseismic intensity degree at the municipality level. In this paper, we show some applications of our method with reference to the Mercalli–Cancani–Sieberg (MCS) scale, because this scale has long been used with Italian earthquakes and allows easy comparison between these intensities and other traditional ones.
    Description: Published
    Description: 985-990
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: 5T. Sorveglianza sismica e operatività post-terremoto
    Description: 4IT. Banche dati
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Macroseismics ; intensity ; questionnaires ; attenuation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.06. Surveys, measurements, and monitoring ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.05. Algorithms and implementation
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: Any trustworthy probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has to account for the intrinsic variability of the system (aleatory variability) and the limited knowledge of the system itself (epistemic uncertainty). The most popular framework for this purpose is the logic tree. Notwithstanding its vast popularity, the logic tree outcomes are still interpreted in two different and irreconcilable ways. In one case, practitioners claim that the mean hazard of the logic tree is the hazard and the distribution of all outcomes does not have any probabilistic meaning. On the other hand, other practitioners describe the seismic hazard using the distribution of all logic tree outcomes. In this paper, we explore in detail the reasons of this controversy about the interpretation of logic tree, showing that the distribution of all outcomes is more appropriate to provide a joined full description of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty. Then, we provide a more general framework - that we name ensemble modeling - in which the logic tree outcomes can be embedded. In this framework, the logic tree is not a classical probability tree, but it is just a technical tool that samples epistemic uncertainty. Ensemble modeling consists of inferring the parent distribution of the epistemic uncertainty from which this sample is drawn. Ensemble modeling offers some remarkable additional features. First, it allows a rigorous and meaningful validation of any PSHA; this is essential if we want to keep PSHA into a scientific domain. Second, it provides a proper and clear description of the aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty that can help stakeholders to appreciate the whole range of uncertainties in PSHA. Third, it may help to reduce the computational time when the logic tree becomes computationally intractable because of the too many branches.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2151-2159
    Description: 1SR. TERREMOTI - Servizi e ricerca per la Società
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: seismic hazard ; logic tree ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2021-03-04
    Description: We investigate the influence of building height on the ability of people to feel earthquakes and observe that, in an urban area, short and tall buildings reach different levels of excitation. We quantify this behavior by analyzing macroseismic reports collected from individuals through the Internet, focusing on transitory effects, therefore in the elastic regime during recent earthquakes in Italy in the local magnitude (ML) range of 3 to 5.9. We find a maximum difference of 0.6 intensity units between the top floors of tall (7–10 stories) and short (1–2 stories) buildings at the highest considered magnitudes. As expected, tall buildings experience greater shaking than short buildings during large earthquakes at large source distances. However, we observe the opposite behavior at close distances when the ML is less than 3.5. These results can be explained by considering the different spectra radiated by small and large earthquakes and the different fundamental mode resonances of buildings (i.e., shorter buildings have higher resonance frequencies and vice versa). Using idealized building models excited by real acceleration time histories, we compute synthetic accelerograms on the top floors of short and tall buildings, and confirm the trend of the observed differences in felt intensities.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1803-1809
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Macroseismics ; intensity ; building height ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.06. Surveys, measurements, and monitoring
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2021-06-22
    Description: Seismic aftershock-hazard analysis is one of the first steps toward estab- lishing an integrated risk-based decision-making support framework for emergency management in the event of an ongoing aftershock sequence. This work focuses on providing adaptive daily forecasts of the mean daily rate of exceeding various spectral acceleration values (the aftershock hazard). Two well-established earthquake- occurrence models suitable for daily seismicity forecasts associated with the evolution of an aftershock sequence, namely, the modified Omori’s aftershock model (MO) and the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) are adopted. An adaptive and evolution- ary MO-based aftershock occurrence model with distinct spatial and temporal compo- nents is proposed. In this model, the parameters deciding the temporal decay are updated based on the data provided by the ongoing aftershock sequence. This model adopts an evolutionary spatial seismicity pattern loosely based on spatial clustering of aftershock events in the sequence. Bayesian updating is also employed to provide sequence-based parameter estimates for a given ground-motion prediction model. Daily forecasts of the mean rate of exceedance of various spectral acceleration levels are calculated based on alternative occurrence models and the updated ground-motion prediction relation. As a numerical example, daily forecasts of the aftershock-hazard curve are obtained for the L’Aquila aftershock sequence based on the MO-based and ETAS occurrence models, and an updated version of the Sabetta and Pugliese (1996) ground-motion prediction model. These daily hazard forecasts are then compared with the observed daily rates of exceeding various spectral acceleration thresholds.
    Description: Published
    Description: 145 – 161
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: earthquake forecast ; aftershock ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2021-06-25
    Description: We cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities are not constant in time; they generally rise and fall over periods of days to years in correlation with nearby seismic activity. Opera- tional earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about these time-dependent proba- bilities to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades. To fulfill this role, OEF must provide a complete description of the seismic hazard—ground-motion exceedance probabilities as well as short-term rupture probabilities—in concert with the long-term forecasts of probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA).
    Description: Published
    Description: 955-959
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Operational earthquake forecasting ; seismic preparedness ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The destructive earthquake (M 7) that struck western Calabria (southern Italy) on 8 September 1905 profoundly hit a broad region, also generating a feeble tsunami. For all the damage it caused, this event was as much studied as not fully explained. Literature source models are numerous and diverse, in fault geometry, location, and associated magnitude. They also differ in nature, since these solutions are either field- based, or deriving from tsunami modeling, and macroseismic data inversion. Most. Neither all of these literature source models are not consistent with the damage pattern caused by the 1905 earthquake. To contribute to the identification of the seismogenic source of this destructive event, we performed a series of ground shaking scenarios, based on different faults that various authors associated with this event. The only documented data available suitable for our comparative purposes are the macroseismic intensities associated with localities affected by the event. We transformed the values of ground motion we computed for the same datapoints into intensities. We then attributed a quantitative fit to each modeled seismogenic source, evaluated with the quadratic sum of residuals between observed and calculated intensities. Our results show that two out of 7 literature source models are compatible with the damage distribution caused by the 1905 earthquake. The different parameters and boundary conditions constraining these two solutions suggest that either seismogenic source should include further complexities. Alternatively, since these two sources are antithetic and partially form a graben, they might have kinematically interacted, if passively, on 8 September 1905.
    Description: Project ISTEGE: “Indagine Sismotettonica del TErremoto dell'8 Settembre 1905 (Mw 7.4) nel Golfo di Sant'Eufemia – offshore tirrenico calabrese”, supported by OGS (Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale); Project RITMARE, funded by Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (Italy's National Civil Protection).
    Description: Published
    Description: 912-927
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Shaking scenarios ; Seismogenic sources ; 1905 earthquake ; Southern Italy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: On 6 April 2009, an Mw 6.2 earthquake struck beneath the city of L’Aquila, central Italy. The shock created significant damage and caused more than 300 deaths in the city and environs. The event followed a seismic sequence that started at the begin- ning of the year, with its largest shock of M w 4.2 occurring on 30 March. The 6 April earthquake became infamous worldwide because seven experts, who attended a Grandi Rischi Commis- sion meeting on 31 March, were convicted of failing to properly warn the public about the possibility of the mainshock and were sentenced to six years in jail. A second trial is in process. We do not wish to further discuss this important case here (in- stead see Marzocchi, 2012 and the website http://processoaquila .wordpress.com/; last accessed June 2014); however, it illustrates the importance of providing authoritative scientific information about earthquake probabilities to the public and other users and serves as a catalyst for the scientific developments now underway in Italy.
    Description: Published
    Description: 961-969
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Operational earthquake forecasting ; ensemble modeling ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 11
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    Unknown
    Seismological Society of America
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this paper, we discuss in depth, one of the basic procedures that stands behind probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA), that is, the declustering of the seismicity rates. First, we explore the technical, scientific, and practical motivations that led to introducing the declustering of seismicity rates. Then, we show that for PSHA, declustering is essential only to minimize a spatial distortion of the earthquake occurrence process, but, conversely, it may lead to significant underestimation of the true seismic hazard. This underestimation precludes the possibility to test meaning- fully PSHA against real observations, and it may lead to underestimate the seismic risk, whenever seismic-hazard maps are used for risk assessment. Finally, we propose a methodology that can be used in PSHA to avoid this potential bias.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1838-1845
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: seismic hazard ; declustering ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In their lengthy comment on Stucchi et al. (2011), Mucciarelli and Albarello (2012) propose opinions on aspects of the study that have been discussed and reviewed in countless circumstances in Italy and internationally, from the very beginning (2003) to the end (2009) of our research.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2793-2794
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Seismic hazard ; Italy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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