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  • Earthquake source observations  (4)
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability  (2)
  • Quantum information
  • Wiley-Blackwell  (6)
  • 2015-2019  (6)
  • 1940-1944
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  • 1
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    Considering uncertainties in the determination of earthquake source parameters from seismic spectra. (2016)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-05
    Description: In this paper, we present a method for handling uncertainties in the determination of the source parameters of earthquakes from spectral data. We propose a robust framework for estimating earthquake source parameters and relative uncertainties, which are propagated down to the estimation of basic seismic parameters of interest such as the seismic moment, the moment magnitude, the source size and the static stress drop. In practice, we put together a Bayesian approach for model parameter estimation and a weighted statistical mixing of multiple solutions obtained from a network of instruments, providing a useful framework for extracting meaningful data from intrinsically uncertain data sets. The Bayesian approach used to estimate the source spectra parameters is a simple but powerful mechanism for non-linear model fitting, providing also the opportunity to naturally propagate uncertainties and to assess the quality and uniqueness of the solution. Another important added value of such an approach is the possibility of integrating information from the expertise of seismologists. Such data can be encoded in a prior state of information that is then updated with the information provided by seismological data. The performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated analysing data from the 1909 April 23 earthquake occurred near Benavente (Portugal).
    Description: Published
    Description: 691-701
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Fourier analysis ; Probability distributions ; Earthquake source observations ; Seismicity and tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.06. Seismic methods
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Assessing annual global M6+ seismicity forecasts (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We consider a seismicity forecast experiment conducted during the last 4 yr. At the beginning of each year, three models make a 1-yr forecast of the distribution of large earthquakes everywhere on the Earth. The forecasts are generated and the observations are collected in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). We apply CSEP likelihood measures of consistency and comparison to see how well the forecasts match the observations, and we compare results from some intuitive reference models. These results illustrate some undesirable properties of the consistency tests: the tests can be extremely sensitive to only a few earthquakes, and yet insensitive to seemingly obvious flaws—a na ̈ıve hypothesis that large earthquakes are equally likely everywhere is not always rejected. The results also suggest that one should check the assumptions of the so-called T and W comparison tests, and we illustrate some methods to do so. As an extension of model assessment, we explore strategies to combine forecasts, and we discuss the implications for operational earthquake forecasting. Finally, we make suggestions for the next generation of global seismicity forecast experiments.
    Description: Published
    Description: 422-431
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: probabilistic forecasting ; statistical seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    Empirical conversion between teleseismic magnitudes (mb and Ms) and moment magnitude (Mw) at the Global, Euro-Mediterranean and Italian scale (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We analysed the conversion problem between teleseismic magnitudes (Ms and mb) provided by the Seismological Bulletin of the International Seismological Centre and moment magni- tudes (Mw) provided by online moment tensor (MT) catalogues using the chi-square general orthogonal regression method (CSQ) that, differently from the ordinary least-square regres- sion method (OLS), accounts for the measurement errors of both the predictor and response variables. To account for the non-linearity of the relationships, we used two types of curvilin- ear models: (i) the exponential model (EXP), recently proposed by the authors of the Global Catalogue sponsored by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and (ii) a connected bilinear (CBL) model, similar to that proposed by Ekstro ̈m & Dziewonski, where two different linear trends at low and high magnitudes are connected by an arc of circle that preserves the continuity of the function and of its first derivative at the connecting points. For Ms, we found that the regression curves computed for a global data set (GBL) are likely to be biased by the incompleteness of global MT catalogues for Mw 〈5.0–5.5. In fact, the GBL curves deviate significantly from a similar regression curve computed for a Euro-Mediterranean data set (MED) integrated with the data provided by two regional MT catalogues including many more events with Mw 〈 5.0–5.5. The GLB regression curves overestimate the Mw proxies computed from Ms up to 0.5 magnitude units. Hence for computing Mw proxies at the global scale of Ms ≤ 5.5, we suggest to adopt the coefficients obtained from the MED regression. The analysis of the frequency–magnitude relationship of the resulting Mw proxy catalogues confirms the validity of this choice as the behaviour of b-value as a function of cut-off magnitude of the GBL data set is much more stable using such approach. The incompleteness of Mw’s provided from MT global catalogues also affects the mb GBL data set but in this case the use of the CSQ regression method, in place of the OLS, mitigates the bias and then, at low magnitudes, the EXP regression curve computed from the more complete MED data set almost coincides with that computed from the GBL data set. Our results also indicate that the slope at low magnitudes of the Mw–Ms relationship is substantially consistent with the hypothesized theoretical value of 2/3 for Ms 〈 5.0 while the slope of the Mw–mb relationship at high magnitudes probably reaches the theoretically expected value of 2 only in the proximity of the upper limit of mb determinations in our data set (mb = 7.2).
    Description: Published
    Description: 805–828
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Earthquake source observations ; Statistical seismology ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.02. Seismological data
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
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    Probabilistic hazard for seismically induced tsunamis: accuracy and feasibility of inundation maps (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) relies on computationally demanding numerical simulations of tsunami generation, propagation, and non-linear inundation on high-resolution topo-bathymetric models. Here we focus on tsunamis generated by co-seismic sea floor dis- placement, that is, on Seismic PTHA (SPTHA). A very large number of tsunami simulations are typically needed to incorporate in SPTHA the full expected variability of seismic sources (the aleatory uncertainty). We propose an approach for reducing their number. To this end, we (i) introduce a simplified event tree to achieve an effective and consistent exploration of the seismic source parameter space; (ii) use the computationally inexpensive linear approximation for tsunami propagation to construct a preliminary SPTHA that calculates the probability of maximum offshore tsunami wave height (H Max) at a given target site; (iii) apply a two-stage filtering procedure to these ‘linear’ SPTHA results, for selecting a reduced set of sources and (iv) calculate ‘non-linear’ probabilistic inundation maps at the target site, using only the selected sources. We find that the selection of the important sources needed for approximating probabilistic inundation maps can be obtained based on the offshore HMax values only. The filtering procedure is semi-automatic and can be easily repeated for any target sites. We describe and test the performances of our approach with a case study in the Mediterranean that considers potential subduction earthquakes on a section of the Hellenic Arc, three target sites on the coast of eastern Sicily and one site on the coast of southern Crete. The comparison between the filtered SPTHA results and those obtained for the full set of sources indicates that our approach allows for a 75–80 per cent reduction of the number of the numerical simulations needed, while preserving the accuracy of probabilistic inundation maps to a reasonable degree.
    Description: Published
    Description: 574-588
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Tsunami ; Hazard ; Probabilistic ; Subduction ; Mediterranean ; SPTHA ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.06. Subduction related processes
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
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    Comment on ‘Magnitude conversion problem using general orthogonal regression’ by H. R. Wason, Ranjit Das and M. L. Sharma, (Geophys. J. Int., 190, 1091–1096) (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    In:  Magnitude conversion problem using general orthogonal regression’ by H. R. Wason, Ranjit Das and M. L. Sharma, (Geophys. J. Int., 190, 1091–1096)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The argument proposed by Wason et al. that the conversion of magnitudes from a scale (e.g. Ms or mb) to another (e.g. Mw), using the coefficients computed by the general orthogonal regression method (Fuller) is biased if the observed values of the predictor (independent) variable are used in the equation as well as the methodology they suggest to estimate the supposedly true values of the predictor variable are wrong for a number of theoretical and empirical reasons. Hence, we advise against the use of such methodology for magnitude conversions.
    Description: Published
    Description: 626-627
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Earthquake source observations ; Statistical seismology ; Computational seismology ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
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    Source modelling of the M5-6 Emilia-Romagna, Italy, earthquakes (May 20-29, 2012) (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-11-25
    Description: On 2012 May 20 and 29, two damaging earthquakes with magnitudes Mw 6.1 and 5.9, respectively, struck the Emilia-Romagna region in the sedimentary Po Plain, Northern Italy, causing 26 fatalities, significant damage to historical buildings and substantial impact to the economy of the region. The earthquake sequence included four more aftershocks with Mw ? 5.0, all at shallow depths (about 7–9 km), with similar WNW–ESE striking reverse mechanism. The timeline of the sequence suggests significant static stress interaction between the largest events. We perform here a detailed source inversion, first adopting a point source approximation and considering pure double couple and full moment tensor source models. We compare different extended source inversion approaches for the two largest events, and find that the rupture occurred in both cases along a subhorizontal plane, dipping towards SSW. Directivity is well detected for the May 20 main shock, indicating that the rupture propagated unilaterally towards SE. Based on the focal mechanism solution, we further estimate the co-seismic static stress change induced by the May 20 event. By using the rate-and-state model and a Poissonian earthquake occurrence, we infer that the second largest event of May 29 was induced with a probability in the range 0.2–0.4. This suggests that the segment of fault was already prone to rupture. Finally, we estimate peak ground accelerations for the two main events as occurred separately or simultaneously. For the scenario involving hypothetical rupture areas of both main events, we estimate Mw = 6.3 and an increase of ground acceleration by 50 per cent. The approach we propose may help to quantify rapidly which regions are invested by a significant increase of the hazard, bearing the potential for large aftershocks or even a second main shock.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1658-1672
    Description: 4T. Fisica dei terremoti e scenari cosismici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Earthquake dynamics ; Earthquake source observations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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