ALBERT

All Library Books, journals and Electronic Records Telegrafenberg

X
feed icon rss

Your email was sent successfully. Check your inbox.

An error occurred while sending the email. Please try again.

Proceed reservation?

Export
Filter
  • Articles  (12)
  • Data
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk  (12)
  • Seismological Society of America  (8)
  • Springer  (4)
  • 2015-2019  (12)
  • 1945-1949
Collection
  • Articles  (12)
  • Data
Source
Keywords
Publisher
Years
Year
  • 1
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Operational (short-term) earthquake loss forecasting in Italy (2015)
    Seismological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-21
    Description: The seismological community is currently developing operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) systems that aim to estimate, based on continuous ground motion recording by seismic networks, the rates of events exceeding a certain magnitude threshold in an area of interest and in a short-period of time (days to weeks); i.e., the seismicity. OEF may be possibly used for short-term seismic risk management in regions affected by seismic swarms only if its results may be the input to compute, in a probabilistically sound manner, consequence-based risk metrics. The present paper reports the investigation about feasibility of short-term risk assessment, or operational earthquake loss forecasting (OELF), in Italy. The approach is that of performance-based earthquake engineering, where the loss rates are computed by means of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. The risk is expressed in terms of individual and regional measures, which are based on short-term macroseismic intensity, or ground motion intensity, hazard. The vulnerability of the built environment relies on damage probability matrices empirically calibrated for Italian structural classes, and exposure data in terms of buildings per vulnerability class and occupants per building typology. All vulnerability and exposure data are at the municipality scale. The procedure set-up, which is virtually independent on the seismological model used, is implemented in an experimental OELF system, which continuously process OEF information to produce weekly nationwide risk maps. This is illustrated by a retrospective application to the 2012 Pollino (southern Italy) seismic sequence, which provides insights on the capabilities of the system and on the impact, on short-term risk assessment, of the methodology currently used for OEF in Italy.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2286-2298
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: operational earthquake forecasting ; seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER (OA)
  • 2
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Accounting for Epistemic Uncertainty in PSHA: Logic Tree and Ensemble Modeling (2015)
    Seismological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: Any trustworthy probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has to account for the intrinsic variability of the system (aleatory variability) and the limited knowledge of the system itself (epistemic uncertainty). The most popular framework for this purpose is the logic tree. Notwithstanding its vast popularity, the logic tree outcomes are still interpreted in two different and irreconcilable ways. In one case, practitioners claim that the mean hazard of the logic tree is the hazard and the distribution of all outcomes does not have any probabilistic meaning. On the other hand, other practitioners describe the seismic hazard using the distribution of all logic tree outcomes. In this paper, we explore in detail the reasons of this controversy about the interpretation of logic tree, showing that the distribution of all outcomes is more appropriate to provide a joined full description of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty. Then, we provide a more general framework - that we name ensemble modeling - in which the logic tree outcomes can be embedded. In this framework, the logic tree is not a classical probability tree, but it is just a technical tool that samples epistemic uncertainty. Ensemble modeling consists of inferring the parent distribution of the epistemic uncertainty from which this sample is drawn. Ensemble modeling offers some remarkable additional features. First, it allows a rigorous and meaningful validation of any PSHA; this is essential if we want to keep PSHA into a scientific domain. Second, it provides a proper and clear description of the aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty that can help stakeholders to appreciate the whole range of uncertainties in PSHA. Third, it may help to reduce the computational time when the logic tree becomes computationally intractable because of the too many branches.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2151-2159
    Description: 1SR. TERREMOTI - Servizi e ricerca per la Società
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: seismic hazard ; logic tree ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER (OA)
  • 3
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Applying the Disruption Index Procedure to Evaluate the Urban Seismic Risk in the Mt. Etna Area (Italy) (2015)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-23
    Description: The Disruption Index is used here for the assessment of urban disruption in the Mt. Etna area after a natural disaster. The first element of the procedure is the definition of the seismic input, which is based on information about the historical seismicity and seismogenic faults. The second element is the computation of the seismic impact on the building stock and infrastructure in the region considered. Information on urban-scale vulnerability was collected and a geographic information system was used to organize the data relating to buildings and network systems (e.g., typologies, schools, strategic structures, lifelines). The central idea underlying the definition of the Disruption Index is the identification and evaluation of the impacts on a target community, considering the physical elements that contribute most to the severe disruption. The results of this study are therefore very useful for earthquake preparedness planning and for the development of strategies to minimize the risks from earthquakes. This study is a product of the European “Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources” project (UPStrat-MAFA European project 2013).
    Description: Published
    Description: Torino
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: open
    Keywords: Seismic impact ; Disruption index ; Urban system ; Risk measures ; Mt. Etna area (Italy) ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Conference paper
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER (OA)
  • 4
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Adaptive daily forecasting of seismic aftershock hazard (2015)
    Seismological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-22
    Description: Seismic aftershock-hazard analysis is one of the first steps toward estab- lishing an integrated risk-based decision-making support framework for emergency management in the event of an ongoing aftershock sequence. This work focuses on providing adaptive daily forecasts of the mean daily rate of exceeding various spectral acceleration values (the aftershock hazard). Two well-established earthquake- occurrence models suitable for daily seismicity forecasts associated with the evolution of an aftershock sequence, namely, the modified Omori’s aftershock model (MO) and the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) are adopted. An adaptive and evolution- ary MO-based aftershock occurrence model with distinct spatial and temporal compo- nents is proposed. In this model, the parameters deciding the temporal decay are updated based on the data provided by the ongoing aftershock sequence. This model adopts an evolutionary spatial seismicity pattern loosely based on spatial clustering of aftershock events in the sequence. Bayesian updating is also employed to provide sequence-based parameter estimates for a given ground-motion prediction model. Daily forecasts of the mean rate of exceedance of various spectral acceleration levels are calculated based on alternative occurrence models and the updated ground-motion prediction relation. As a numerical example, daily forecasts of the aftershock-hazard curve are obtained for the L’Aquila aftershock sequence based on the MO-based and ETAS occurrence models, and an updated version of the Sabetta and Pugliese (1996) ground-motion prediction model. These daily hazard forecasts are then compared with the observed daily rates of exceeding various spectral acceleration thresholds.
    Description: Published
    Description: 145 – 161
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: earthquake forecast ; aftershock ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER (OA)
  • 5
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Operational earthquake forecasting can enhance earthquake preparedness (2015)
    Seismological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-25
    Description: We cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities are not constant in time; they generally rise and fall over periods of days to years in correlation with nearby seismic activity. Opera- tional earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about these time-dependent proba- bilities to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades. To fulfill this role, OEF must provide a complete description of the seismic hazard—ground-motion exceedance probabilities as well as short-term rupture probabilities—in concert with the long-term forecasts of probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA).
    Description: Published
    Description: 955-959
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Operational earthquake forecasting ; seismic preparedness ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER (OA)
  • 6
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Shaking scenarios from multiple source models shed light on the Mw 7 Calabria 8 September 1905 earthquake (S Italy) (2015)
    Seismological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The destructive earthquake (M 7) that struck western Calabria (southern Italy) on 8 September 1905 profoundly hit a broad region, also generating a feeble tsunami. For all the damage it caused, this event was as much studied as not fully explained. Literature source models are numerous and diverse, in fault geometry, location, and associated magnitude. They also differ in nature, since these solutions are either field- based, or deriving from tsunami modeling, and macroseismic data inversion. Most. Neither all of these literature source models are not consistent with the damage pattern caused by the 1905 earthquake. To contribute to the identification of the seismogenic source of this destructive event, we performed a series of ground shaking scenarios, based on different faults that various authors associated with this event. The only documented data available suitable for our comparative purposes are the macroseismic intensities associated with localities affected by the event. We transformed the values of ground motion we computed for the same datapoints into intensities. We then attributed a quantitative fit to each modeled seismogenic source, evaluated with the quadratic sum of residuals between observed and calculated intensities. Our results show that two out of 7 literature source models are compatible with the damage distribution caused by the 1905 earthquake. The different parameters and boundary conditions constraining these two solutions suggest that either seismogenic source should include further complexities. Alternatively, since these two sources are antithetic and partially form a graben, they might have kinematically interacted, if passively, on 8 September 1905.
    Description: Project ISTEGE: “Indagine Sismotettonica del TErremoto dell'8 Settembre 1905 (Mw 7.4) nel Golfo di Sant'Eufemia – offshore tirrenico calabrese”, supported by OGS (Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale); Project RITMARE, funded by Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (Italy's National Civil Protection).
    Description: Published
    Description: 912-927
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Shaking scenarios ; Seismogenic sources ; 1905 earthquake ; Southern Italy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER (OA)
  • 7
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Prediction of the shear wave velocity Vs from CPT and DMT at research sites (2015)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The paper examines the correlations to obtain rough estimates of the shear wave velocity VS from nonseismic dilatometer tests (DMT) and cone penetration tests (CPT). While the direct measurement of VS is obviously preferable, these correlations may turn out useful in various circumstances. The experimental results at six international research sites suggest that the DMT predictions of VS from the parameters ID (material index), KD (horizontal stress index), MDMT (constrained modulus) are more reliable and consistent than the CPT predictions from qc (cone resistance), presumably because of the availability, by DMT, of the stress history index KD.
    Description: Published
    Description: 83-92
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: N/A or not JCR
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: horizontal stress index ; shear wave velocity ; flat dilatometer test ; cone penetration test ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER (OA)
  • 8
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    The establishment of an operational earthquake forecasting system in Italy (2015)
    Seismological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: On 6 April 2009, an Mw 6.2 earthquake struck beneath the city of L’Aquila, central Italy. The shock created significant damage and caused more than 300 deaths in the city and environs. The event followed a seismic sequence that started at the begin- ning of the year, with its largest shock of M w 4.2 occurring on 30 March. The 6 April earthquake became infamous worldwide because seven experts, who attended a Grandi Rischi Commis- sion meeting on 31 March, were convicted of failing to properly warn the public about the possibility of the mainshock and were sentenced to six years in jail. A second trial is in process. We do not wish to further discuss this important case here (in- stead see Marzocchi, 2012 and the website http://processoaquila .wordpress.com/; last accessed June 2014); however, it illustrates the importance of providing authoritative scientific information about earthquake probabilities to the public and other users and serves as a catalyst for the scientific developments now underway in Italy.
    Description: Published
    Description: 961-969
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Operational earthquake forecasting ; ensemble modeling ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER (OA)
  • 9
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Some Thoughts on Declustering in Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analysis (2015)
    Seismological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this paper, we discuss in depth, one of the basic procedures that stands behind probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA), that is, the declustering of the seismicity rates. First, we explore the technical, scientific, and practical motivations that led to introducing the declustering of seismicity rates. Then, we show that for PSHA, declustering is essential only to minimize a spatial distortion of the earthquake occurrence process, but, conversely, it may lead to significant underestimation of the true seismic hazard. This underestimation precludes the possibility to test meaning- fully PSHA against real observations, and it may lead to underestimate the seismic risk, whenever seismic-hazard maps are used for risk assessment. Finally, we propose a methodology that can be used in PSHA to avoid this potential bias.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1838-1845
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: seismic hazard ; declustering ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER (OA)
  • 10
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Seismic Microzonation in a Small Municipality: The Canazei Case Study (Trentino, N Italy) (2015)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-24
    Description: The results of a detailed seismic microzonation study performed at Canazei (Trentino—Northern Italy) are here presented. We investigated the local seismic response of this small village using a Level 3 seismic microzonation, the most accurate according to the Italian Code of Seismic Microzonation. This method consists of gradual steps of knowledge to consider different aspects of the amplification phenomena. A multidisciplinary approach has been performed, including a local geological study, geophysical investigations, geotechnical characterization of lithologies and numerical analyses. The obtained elastic response spectra were compared to the spectra prescribed by the Italian Building Code. Our results show the geologic and geophysical subsoil heterogeneities, responsible for different local seismic responses in terms of acceleration spectra and amplification factors.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1085-1089
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Seismic microzonation ; Response spectra ; Amplification factor ; Canazei ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.06. Surveys, measurements, and monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER (OA)
  • 11
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Geoscientific Communication Problem with Communities for Disaster Prevention and Land Planning in Peru (2015)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-24
    Description: The communication process between the geoscientists and native communities in risk areas can significantly affect disaster prevention and land use planning. In Peru, the problem of disaster prevention is a fundamental policy due to unfamiliarity and deficiency of the associate information on the population. It is possible that talk of disaster prevention it will be an unlikely ideal in a country where most towns have settled on unplanned projects by the constant change and the lack of interest from the authorities in such topics. However, it is anachronistic that the rural communities and towns continue to live without a plan to enable them to improve their quality of life. The correct use of geoscience information in the mass media can help in this work. The characteristics of the enterprise in Peru require more training by professionals in the geosciences and support communication specialists. In this paper, we analyze the problem of communication for disaster prevention in Peru, with the aim of contributing to the articulation of a disaster prevention strategy.
    Description: Published
    Description: 81-83
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente
    Description: 6A. Monitoraggio ambientale, sicurezza e territorio
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Communication process ; Disaster prevention ; Risk management ; Peru ; Geoethics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.03. Educational, History of Science, Public Issues::05.03.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.09. Miscellaneous::05.09.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER (OA)
  • 12
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Reply to “Comment on ‘Seismic Hazard Assessment (2003–2009) for the Italian Building Code’ by Massimiliano Stucchi, Carlo Meletti, Valentina Montaldo, Helen Crowley, Gian Michele Calvi, and Enzo Boschi” by Marco Mucciarelli and Dario Albarello (2015)
    Seismological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In their lengthy comment on Stucchi et al. (2011), Mucciarelli and Albarello (2012) propose opinions on aspects of the study that have been discussed and reviewed in countless circumstances in Italy and internationally, from the very beginning (2003) to the end (2009) of our research.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2793-2794
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Seismic hazard ; Italy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER (OA)
Close ⊗
This website uses cookies and the analysis tool Matomo. More information can be found here...