ALBERT

Description: The prediction of a spatial variable is of particular importance when analyzing spatial data. The main objective of this study is to evaluate and compare the performance of several prediction-based methods in spatial prediction through a simulation study. The studied methods include ordinary Kriging (OK), along with several neural network methods including Multi-Layer Perceptron network (MLP), Ensemble Neural Networks (ENN), and Radial Basis Function (RBF) network. We simulated several spatial datasets with three different scenarios due to changes in data stationarity and isotropy. The performance of methods was evaluated using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Concordance Correlation Coefficient (CCC) indexes. Although the results of the simulation study revealed that the performance of the neural network in spatial prediction is weaker than the Kriging method, but it can still be a good competitor for Kriging.

Description: Whakaari/White Island is a partially submerged, offshore andesite island volcano, located at the northern end of the Taupō Volcanic Zone. Since the late 1960s, volcanic activity has alternated between quiescence, unrest, and eruption on short timescales. For this review we compiled extensive observational records, examined the rich scientific literature, and use newly acquired data, to understand the broad volcanic history and system dynamics. Based on recent bathymetry data, we propose a distinction exists between the Whakaari edifice and Te Paepae o Aotea/Volkner Rocks, which were previously considered to be part of the same edifice. Geochemical analyses of scoria samples from the island have been used to build a magma system model where dominantly andesitic-dacitic magma is periodically intruded by basalt. More dynamic processes are recorded in the hydrothermal system, where the location and activity of fumarolic features have been ephemeral and the crater lake has varied in scale over short time intervals. Eruptions of the dominantly andesitic magma have historically been small and range from phreatomagmatic through to magmatic, largely depositing ash and scoria to a restricted distance that is confined to the main crater floor. Phreatic eruptions are the most common eruption style, based on recently observed and monitored activity.

Description: The representation of tropical precipitation is evaluated across three generations of models participating in phases 3, 5, and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Compared to state-of-the-art observations, improvements in tropical precipitation in the CMIP6 models are identified for some metrics, but we find no general improvement in tropical precipitation on different temporal and spatial scales. Our results indicate overall little changes across the CMIP phases for the summer monsoons, the double-ITCZ bias, and the diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation. We find a reduced amount of drizzle events in CMIP6, but tropical precipitation occurs still too frequently. Continuous improvements across the CMIP phases are identified for the number of consecutive dry days, for the representation of modes of variability, namely, the Madden–Julian oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and for the trends in dry months in the twentieth century. The observed positive trend in extreme wet months is, however, not captured by any of the CMIP phases, which simulate negative trends for extremely wet months in the twentieth century. The regional biases are larger than a climate change signal one hopes to use the models to identify. Given the pace of climate change as compared to the pace of model improvements to simulate tropical precipitation, we question the past strategy of the development of the present class of global climate models as the mainstay of the scientific response to climate change. We suggest the exploration of alternative approaches such as high-resolution storm-resolving models that can offer better prospects to inform us about how tropical precipitation might change with anthropogenic warming.

Description: Recently, the aeromagnetic survey with Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) for mineral exploration has become ubiquitous. They can fly at a lower speed, lower altitude, need fewer crew members, and are cost-effective compared to traditional manned aeromagnetic. With the development of drones, magnetometers were also developed, which reduced the cost, weight, size, and energy consumption of these sensors. One of these sensors is the magneto-inductive magnetometer. This study investigates the integration of the UAV with a magneto-inductive sensor. We have performed an aeromagnetic survey along with six profiles and compared them with the terrestrial magnetic survey using a proton precision magnetometer. We show that the magneto-inductive sensor can sense Earth’s magnetic field’s change up to less than 60 nT. These results show the promising potential of using the UAV equipped with the magneto-inductive sensor to prospect the magnetic ore deposits.

Description: Tephra deposits in Aotearoa New Zealand (ANZ) have been studied for 〉180 years. The now-global discipline of tephrochronology, which has some developmental roots in ANZ, forms the basis of a powerful chronostratigraphic correlational tool and age-equivalent dating method for geological, volcanological, palaeoenvironmental, and archaeological research in ANZ. Its utility is founded on the key principle that tephras or cryptotephras provide widespread isochrons in many different environments. In the first part of this article, we summarise the history of tephra studies in ANZ and then describe how tephras have been mapped, characterised, and correlated using field and laboratory-based methods. We document advances in geochemical fingerprinting of glass; tephra/cryptotephra detection and correlation by sediment-core scanning methods (e.g. X-radiography, CT imaging, XRF elemental analysis, magnetic susceptibility); statistical correlation methods; and dating of tephras/cryptotephras. We discuss the advent of ANZ cryptotephra studies (from mid-1970s) and their more-recent growth. The second part comprises examples of applications of tephrochronology in ANZ: climate-event stratigraphy (NZ-INTIMATE project); eruptive-event stratigraphy in the Auckland Volcanic Field; developments in the marine tephra record; advances in identifying, correlating, and dating old (pre-50 ka) tephras and weathered-tephra deposits; forming soils/paleosols on tephras; tephras and archaeology; Kopouatai bog tephrostratigraphy and palaeoenvironments; and volcanic-hazard assessments.

Description: There is a significant interest in the usage of algae in everyday diet because of their positive influence on the gastrointestinal system due to the presence of high amounts of dietary fibres, while the presence of ω-3 fatty acids contributes to the protection of cardiovascular system. Algal derived polysaccharides are found in the food products as stabilisers, thickening agents and emulsifiers. In the cosmetic industry, algae are used in sunscreen, anti-age, anti-cellulite, moisturising and skin whitening products. These products can be used for the development of cosmeceuticals which contain algal derived bioactive compounds and they can exert a pharmaceutical therapeutic benefit. However, these compounds also have potential for being isolated and used for development of novel drugs against diseases, such as cancer, neurodegenerative disorders, and diabetes. Present review provides information about algal compounds incorporated into various food, cosmetic or medicinal products, as well as their potential for health improvement was evaluated.

Description: Understanding the physical and biogeochemical interactions and feedbacks between the ocean and atmosphere is a vital component of environmental and Earth system research. The ability to predict and respond to future environmental change relies on a detailed understanding of these processes. The Surface Ocean-Lower Atmosphere Study (SOLAS) is an international research platform that focuses on the study of ocean-atmosphere interactions, for which Future Earth is a sponsor. SOLAS instigated a collaborative initiative process to connect efforts in the natural and social sciences related to these processes, as a contribution to the emerging Future Earth Ocean Knowledge-Action Network (Ocean KAN). This is imperative because many of the recent changes in the Earth system are anthropogenic. An understanding of adaptation and counteracting measures requires an alliance of scientists from both domains to bridge the gap between science and policy. To this end, three SOLAS research areas were targeted for a case study to determine a more effective method of interdisciplinary research: valuing carbon and the ocean’s role; air-sea interactions, policy and stewardship; and, air-sea interactions and the shipping industry.

Description: Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these time scales a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational, and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) time scales, while the focus broadly remains similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper-ocean temperatures, and their effects on the probabilities of high-impact meteorological events), understanding the roles of internal variability and externally forced variability such as anthropogenic warming in forecasts also becomes important. The S2S and S2D communities share common scientific and technical challenges. These include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the onset of model systematic errors; bias correction, calibration, and forecast quality assessment; model resolution; atmosphere-ocean coupling; sources and expectations for predictability; and linking research, operational forecasting, and end-user needs. In September 2018 a coordinated pair of international conferences, framed by the above challenges, was organized jointly by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). These conferences surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services. This article provides such a synthesis.

Description: Monowai is an active submarine volcanic centre in the Kermadec Arc, Southwest Pacific Ocean. Multi-beam data acquired during expedition SO225 aboard R/V SONNE in December 2012 indicates that the topography of the main stratocone has evolved significantly since the last survey in June 2011. Bathymetric measurements of the edifice reveal differences of up to 42 m in seafloor depth and indicate a net volume increase of ∼0.037 km3 across the summit area. Explosive volcanism observed onsite during the SO225 mapping campaign could be linked to a 20h-long swarm of unusually coherent T phase arrivals, suggesting that Monowai is a prime source of broadband seismic noise in the Southwest Pacific region during times of activity. Our findings further document the dynamic nature of volcanic processes at Monowai and have implications for future expedition planning.