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  • Gulf Stream  (6)
  • American Geophysical Union  (6)
  • Cell Press
  • Molecular Diversity Preservation International (MDPI)
  • 2020-2023  (6)
  • 1
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    A survival analysis of the gulf stream warm core rings (2021)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 125(10),(2020): e2020JC016507, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016507.
    Description: Survival of Gulf Stream (GS) warm core rings (WCRs) was investigated using a census consisting of a total of 961 rings formed during the period 1980–2017. Kaplan‐Meier survival probability and Cox hazard proportional models were used for the analysis. The survival analysis was performed for rings formed in four 5° zones between 75° W and 55° W. The radius, latitude, and distance from the shelf‐break of a WCR at formation all had a significant effect on the survival of WCRs. A pattern of higher survival was observed in WCRs formed in Zone 2 (70°–65° W) or Zone 3 (65°–60° W) and then demised in Zone 1 (75°–70° W). Survival probability of the WCRs increased to more than 70% for those formed within a latitude band from 39.5° to 41.5° N. Survival probability is reduced when the WCRs are formed near the New England Seamounts.
    Description: We are grateful for financial supports from NOAA (NA11NOS0120038), NSF (OCE‐1851242), SMAST, and UMass Dartmouth. G. G. was supported by NSF under grant OCE‐1851261.
    Description: 2021-04-14
    Keywords: Gulf Stream ; Warm core rings ; Survival analysis
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 2
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    On assessing ERA5 and MERRA2 representations of cold-air outbreaks across the Gulf Stream (2021)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-20
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 48(19), (2021): e2021GL094364, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094364.
    Description: The warm Gulf Stream sea surface temperatures strongly impact the evolution of winter clouds behind atmospheric cold fronts. Such cloud evolution remains challenging to model. The Gulf Stream is too wide within the ERA5 and MERRA2 reanalyses, affecting the turbulent surface fluxes. Known problems within the ERA5 boundary layer (too-dry and too-cool with too strong westerlies), ascertained primarily from ACTIVATE 2020 campaign aircraft dropsondes and secondarily from older buoy measurements, reinforce surface flux biases. In contrast, MERRA2 winter surface winds and air-sea temperature/humidity differences are slightly too weak, producing surface fluxes that are too low. Reanalyses boundary layer heights in the strongly forced winter cold-air-outbreak regime are realistic, whereas late-summer quiescent stable boundary layers are too shallow. Nevertheless, the reanalysis biases are small, and reanalyses adequately support their use for initializing higher-resolution cloud process modeling studies of cold-air outbreaks.
    Description: This work was supported by NASA grant 80NSSC19K0390 to ACTIVATE, a NASA Earth Venture Suborbital-3 (EVS-3) investigation funded by NASA's Earth Science Division and managed through the Earth System Science Pathfinder Program Office. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is operated for the US Department of Energy (DOE) by Battelle Memorial Institute under Contract DE-AC06-76RLO 1830.
    Description: 2022-03-08
    Keywords: Cold-air outbreaks ; Surface fluxes ; Gulf Stream ; ACTIVATE ; ERA5 ; MERRA2
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 3
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    Spatial and temporal variability of the Gulf Stream near Cape Hatteras (2021)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Andres, M. Spatil and temporal variability of the Gulf Stream near Cape Hatteras. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 126(9), (2021): e2021JC017579, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017579.
    Description: In situ observations from a 19-month deployment of current- and pressure-sensor equipped inverted echo sounders (CPIESs) along and across the Gulf Stream near Cape Hatteras capture spatial and temporal variability where this western boundary current separates from the continental margin. Regional hydrographic casts and two temperature cross-sections spanning the Gulf Stream southeast of Cape Hatteras are used with the CPIESs' records of acoustic travel time to infer changes in thermocline depth DT and Gulf Stream position. Wave-like Gulf Stream meanders are observed where the Stream approaches the separation location with periods less than 15 days, wavelengths less than 500-km, and phase speeds between 40 and 70 km d−1. Though meander amplitudes typically decrease by ∼30% on the final approach to Cape Hatteras, some signals are still coherent across the Gulf Stream separation location. Temporal variability in meander intensity may be related to the Loop Current ∼1,400 km upstream. Mesoscale variability is strongest downstream of the separation location where Gulf Stream position is no longer constrained by the steep continental slope. Low frequency transport changes in the Florida Straits are correlated with sea-surface height gradients along the entire South Atlantic Bight (SAB) and with DT inferred at the CPIES sites. The correlations with DT are likely due to coherent transport anomalies in the Gulf Stream approaching the separation location, which then drive Gulf Stream position changes downstream of the separation location. The patterns of coherent transport anomalies may reflect large-scale atmospheric forcing patterns or rapid equatorward propagation of barotropic signals along the SAB.
    Description: This research was supported by the National Science Foundation through grant OCE-1558521.
    Keywords: Altimetry ; Cape Hatteras ; CPIES ; Gulf Stream ; Meanders
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 4
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    Forecasting the Gulf Stream path using buoyancy and wind forcing over the North Atlantic (2021)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 126(8), (2021): e2021JC017614, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017614.
    Description: Fluctuations in the path of the Gulf Stream (GS) have been previously studied by primarily connecting to either the wind-driven subtropical gyre circulation or buoyancy forcing via the subpolar gyre. Here we present a statistical model for 1 year predictions of the GS path (represented by the GS northern wall—GSNW) between 75°W and 65°W incorporating both mechanisms in a combined framework. An existing model with multiple parameters including the previous year's GSNW index, center location, and amplitude of the Icelandic Low and the Southern Oscillation Index was augmented with basin-wide Ekman drift over the Azores High. The addition of the wind is supported by a validation of the simpler two-layer Parsons-Veronis model of GS separation over the last 40 years. A multivariate analysis was carried out to compare 1-year-in-advance forecast correlations from four different models. The optimal predictors of the best performing model include: (a) the GSNW index from the previous year, (b) gyre-scale integrated Ekman Drift over the past 2 years, and (c) longitude of the Icelandic Low center lagged by 3 years. The forecast correlation over the 27 years (1994–2020) is 0.65, an improvement from the previous multi-parameter model's forecast correlation of 0.52. The improvement is attributed to the addition of the wind-drift component. The sensitivity of forecasting the GS path after extreme atmospheric years is quantified. Results indicate the possibility of better understanding and enhanced predictability of the dominant wind-driven variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and of fisheries management models that use the GS path as a metric.
    Description: The authors are grateful for financial supports from NSF (OCE-1851242), SMAST, and UMass Dartmouth. GG was supported by NSF under grants OCE-1657853 and OCE-1558521.
    Description: 2022-01-28
    Keywords: Gulf Stream ; Azores high ; Icelandic low ; forecasting ; AMOC ; North Atlantic
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 5
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    A census of the warm-core rings of the Gulf Stream: 1980-2017 (2020)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 125(8), (2020): e2019JC016033, doi:10.1029/2019JC016033.
    Description: A census of Gulf Stream (GS) warm‐core rings (WCRs) is presented based on 38 years (1980–2017) of data. The census documents formation and demise times and locations, and formation size for all 961 WCRs formed in the study period that live for a week or more. A clear regime shift was observed around the Year 2000 and was reported by a subset of authors (Gangopadhyay et al., 2019, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-48661-9). The WCR formation over the whole region (75–55°W) increased from an average of 18 per year during Regime 1 (1980–1999) to 33 per year during Regime 2 (2000–2017). For geographic analysis formation locations were grouped in four 5° zones between 75°W and 55°W. Seasonally, WCR formations show a significant summer maxima and winter minima, a pattern that is consistent through all zones and both temporal regimes. The lifespan and size distribution show progressively more rings with higher longevity and greater size when formed to the east of 70°W. The average lifespan of the WCRs in all four zones decreased by 20–40% depending on zones and/or seasons from Regime 1 to Regime 2, while the size distribution remained unchanged across regimes. The ring footprint index, a first‐order signature of impact of the WCRs on the slope, increased significantly (26–90%) for all zones from Regime 1 to Regime 2, with the highest percent increase in Zone 2 (70–65°W). This observational study establishes critical statistical and dynamical benchmarks for validating numerical models and highlights the need for further dynamical understanding of the GS‐ring formation processes.
    Description: The authors acknowledge financial support from NOAA (NA11NOS0120038), NSF (OCE‐0815679 and OCE‐1851242), and SMAST and UMass Dartmouth. G. G. was supported by NSF under Grant OCE‐1657853 as well as a Senior Scientist Chair from WHOI. We have benefitted from many discussions on Gulf Stream and WCR with Magdalena Andres, Andre Schmidt, Paula Fratantoni, Jon Hare, Wendell Brown, Kathy Donohue, Tom Rossby, Peter Cornillon, and Randy Watts.
    Description: 2020-12-29
    Keywords: Gulf Stream ; Warm Core Rings ; Regime‐Shift ; Lifespan of rings ; size of rings ; Ring Census
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 6
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    Variability of deep water in Jordan Basin of the Gulf of Maine: influence of Gulf Stream warm core rings and the Nova Scotia Current (2021)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 126(5), (2021): e2020JC017136, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC017136.
    Description: As the nutrient-rich subsurface slope water intruding into the deep basin of the Gulf of Maine (GoM) supports the high biological productivity in the semi-enclosed gulf, it is important to understand the process and time scale of such slope water intrusion. This study focuses on variations of the GoM deep water on seasonal to interannual time scales and the influences of open ocean processes on the temporal variation of the deep water properties. Based on long-term monitoring data, it is found that the deep water at Jordan Basin (one of three major basins in the GoM) is persistently warmer in winter than in summer, which is distinctly different from the seasonality of surface water in the basin and the deep water on neighboring shelf seas. The unique seasonality in the deep GoM reflects a time-lagged response to shoreward intrusion of the subsurface slope water off the GoM. Both observation-based lag-correlation analyses and numerical simulations confirm a timescale of approximately 3 months for the intruding subsurface slope water to flow from Northeast Channel to Jordan Basin. Properties of the intruding slope water at the Northeast Channel were significantly correlated with the Gulf Stream position and dramatically impacted by episodic warm-core rings shed from Gulf Stream. Inside the deep GoM, the intruding slope water was also indirectly affected by the fresher water input from Nova Scotia Current. Spreading of the fresher water inside the gulf strengthens near-surface stratification, suppresses deep convection, and preserves heat and salt in the deep GoM during the wintertime.
    Description: This study is supported by the National Science Foundation through grant OCE 1634965.
    Description: 2021-11-06
    Keywords: Gulf of Maine deep water ; Gulf Stream ; mooring data ; numerical simulation ; remote sensing data ; warm-core ring
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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