ALBERT

Notes: This paper explores the imputed service price approach to the pricing of the services of consumer-owned-and-used durables in the construction of the consumer price index, using the services of owner-occupied housing as an illustration. A theoretical framework for analyzing this question is first developed. Certain practical problems are then discussed. The conceptual difficulty of constructing an appropriate rate of return on the basis of available data on interest rates and house prices, in the context of inflation, is explored. Two arguments are advanced that statistical agencies ought not to follow the imputed service price approach in pricing the services of owner-occupied dwellings and other consumer durables. On the one hand, nominal interest rates will, in any short period, reflect monetary policy and not any change in the money “rental” of owner-occupied houses. Second, movements in nominal interest rates will also reflect changes in the money price of pure consumption goods, as well as changes in the money price of houses. The argument is extended to other consumer durables and, in the limiting case, to monetary balances, and it is concluded that in all but trivial cases the application of the service price approach leads to price movements of little or no meaning.

Notes: This paper uses a variety of assumptions to produce calculations of worldwide income distributions from recent international data compilations. The variable quality of the source materials in these compilations along with the arbitrariness in the assumptions required are emphasized. A number of working hypotheses for the worldwide income distribution are offered until data and methods improve. It is suggested the top 1 percent of world population may receive 10–15 percent of world income, the top 10 percent from 45–65 percent, and the bottom 20 percent from 1–4 percent. These figures seem more unequal than those for domestic distributions even for more inegalitarian countries.

Notes: Income redistribution studies on the macro–economic level have been undertaken in Denmark for the years 1938–39, 1949, 1955, and 1963. By use of national accounts figures and all other available statistics, it was on certain assumptions possible to distribute public sector income and expenditure by income groups.A quite different approach is used in a Danish redistribution study on the micro-economic level for 1971, which relies solely on the comprehensive data from the family budget survey for that year. Unfortunately this study only relates to employee households.This paper deals with the 1963 and 1971 studies. First it describes and discusses the differences in methodology between the two studies and indicates some ideas for future studies in this field in Denmark. In the following sections some main results of the two studies are given, briefly for the 1963 study and more comprehensively for the 1971 study. The studies show the great and growing strength of the policy of redistribution through public sector income and expenditure in Denmark.It is the opinion of the authors that the appearance of redistribution studies based on comprehensive family budget surveys makes for a substantial improvement of redistribution figures, and that the purely micro-level frame of reference makes it possible to interpret the results in a more satisfactory way than before. Furthermore, the appearance of detailed input-output based national accounts data should bring about further improvements in redistribution figures through better data on indirect taxes and subsidies as well as supporting data which are necessary to link the micro and macro levels in a consistent way.

Notes: It is often discussed that inflation introduces a substantial, arbitrary and regressive redistribution of income and wealth under even mild inflation. But after a quarter century of experience with inflation in postwar Japan, very little is known about these costs of inflation on an empirical basis. Due to the complexity of the evaluation of the redistributional impact on Japan, the present paper analyzes the effects of inflation on individuals or groups as wage earners, debtors and creditors, taxpayers, and holders of real estate.The main results of the present investigation suggest that the Japanese inflation for 1955–75 did not seem to introduce much inequality in the income (flow) account in the economy, but that the inequality between households has appeared more in the wealth (stock) account, especially between the house-owner groups and non-house-owner groups. These observations are mainly derived from the following investigations; (i) the wage lag hypothesis about inflation, even if not wrong, does not seem acceptable when applied to the entire period (1955–75) as well as to each of the five sub-periods; (ii) there has been a substantial transfer of real purchasing power from households to non-financial corporations, and, to a lesser extent, to government entities in the debtor-creditor redistribution; (iii) among households, the most substantial redistribution takes place from the non-houseowners to houseowners with land, because of the huge amount of capital gains from the rapid increase in the price of real estate relative to the prices of other assets or the consumer price index, except for the last three years of rampaging inflation.

Notes: Preliminary estimates of the total incomes system of accounts (TISA) are provided for 1959 and 1969. They extend conventional accounts to include all consumption services produced by government and households as well as by enterprises, but define household purchases of durable and semi-durable goods as investment. Acquisitions of capital throughout the economy, intangible as well as tangible, and not only in the business sector, are included in capital accumulation along with, for tangible capital, net revaluations, that is capital gains net of increases in the general price level. Imputations are offered for non market consumption and capital accumulation, most prominently in unpaid household work and education. Much of government output, particularly police services and defense, is recalculated as intermediate, along with expenses related to work, while media services, treated by the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as business purchases of intermediate product, enter into TISA consumption. Subsidies are included in the value of product, as are services of volunteers and imputations for the underpayment of military conscripts and of jurors. Separate accounts are offered for the national income and product, business, nonprofit institutions, government enterprises, government and households.The ratios of BEA to TISA Net National Product were 81.4 percent and 76.5 percent in 1959 and 1969, respectively. BEA national income was 74.1 percent of the corresponding TISA net national income in 1959 and 69.6 percent in 1969, reflecting a greater per annum rate of growth of TISA net national income, 7.49 percent, as against 6.82 percent for the corresponding BEA national income.BEA gross private domestic investment, restricted to business acquisitions of tangible capital at original cost, was estimated as only approximately 22 percent of comprehensive TISA gross domestic capital formation in 1959 and some 20 percent in 1969. The BEA net private domestic investment growth rate of 7.32 percent per annum from 1959 to 1969 may be compared with a TISA net domestic capital formation growth rate of 9.42 percent.

Notes: The paper is concerned with the concept, definition and measurement of a service. Although services are often dismissed as immaterial goods, they are not special kinds of goods and belong in a quite different logical category from goods. The search for appropriate units of quantity in which to measure services is not an idle metaphysical pursuit. Without quantity units there can be no prices, and most economic theory becomes irrelevant. Indeed, large parts of economic theory may be irrelevant to the analysis of services anyway, precisely because they are not goods which can be exchanged among economic units. Services are as important as goods in modern developed economies and they need to be identified and quantified properly if the measurement of economic growth and inflation is to have any meaning for the economy as a whole. The concept of a service is explained in some detail in the paper, and various ways in which services can be classified for purposes of economic analysis are elaborated. The distinction between private and public goods, or rather between private and collective services, is re-examined in the light of the general concept of a service proposed in the paper. Externalities are shown to be simply special kinds of services.

Notes: This article examines several hypotheses concerning the stochastic nature of year to year variations in individual incomes in light of newly available microdata on individual earnings. In particular, the models of Solow (1951), Champernowne (1953), and Rutherford (1955) are examined in some detail, and their predictions as to changes to be expected in the distribution of individual incomes are tested. The author concludes that the distributions arrived at using these models are not very similar either to each other or to the actual distribution of earnings. Thus, he believes that as an “explanation” of earnings dynamics stochastic process models are unsatisfactory. He further criticizes these models on the grounds that they foster a bias toward the belief in the inevitability, and perhaps desirability, of the current distribution of earnings.

Notes: This paper investigates the relation between schooling and earnings across and within occupations. Across occupations earnings are positively related to mean education. Within occupations the variance in schooling levels is generally substantial, but within two thirds of the occupations no relation between schooling and earnings is observed, while in the remaining third the pattern of sensitivity varies considerably. The sensitivity of earnings to education is greater for white males than white females and substantially greater for whites than blacks. When the white sample is divided into age cohorts, the degree of sensitivity of earnings to schooling is found to be greater for younger cohorts than older ones, except for the youngest cohort in 1970. In the conclusion, a structural interpretation of the distribution of earnings is proposed to account for the findings.

Notes: The historical background and present methodology used in compiling the U.K. official estimates of the stock of fixed capital are described. Mention is made of the possibility that with the development of commercial accounting direct estimates of capital stock may be derived from enterprise accounts at some future time. For the present, however, an indirect perpetual inventory approach is followed. Some of the deficiencies of the present estimates are discussed including the effects of possible biases in the life-length assumptions, price indices and the treatment of secondhand assets. Estimates of gross capital stock are given analysed by industry group of ownership and by type of asset.Some conceptual issues are discussed in relation to user requirements, including the distinction between the stock of capital and the flow of services from it.The authors conclude that little can be done to improve the perpetual inventory estimate of fixed capital in the U.K. without devoting more resources to the collection and analysis of new information, particularly on the service lives of fixed assets, the extent of leasing and the transfer of assets between industries.

Notes: This paper is concerned with the theoretical problems of devising indexes of quality change and with some of the practical problems of constructing such indexes from market data, relating these to the various attempts to construct such indexes in the past. The general conclusion is that, while quality is inherently ordinal, there are three different indexes which might be taken as “measures” of quality change. If changes are sufficiently small, the values of all three indexes will coincide and then, only, can we consider any one of them to be an unambiguous measure of the change.

Notes: This paper assesses the effects of including wealth and the variability of income on the incidence of poverty and the degree of income inequality in Israel. A special survey, which includes data on the wealth and income of a national sample of Israeli families in 1963–64 and 1964–65, allows us to go beyond measures based on current income alone.The first section reviews earlier studies of poverty in Israel. The next section looks at poverty and inequality in terms of current income, current wealth, and a combined measure of income and wealth. The combined measure is the Hansen-Weisbrod measure (HW), which equals income plus the annuity value of wealth, assuming all wealth is just consumed at the time of death. It is interesting that, in spite of the much higher wealth inequality than income inequality, the HW measure was slightly more equally distributed than income. This result occurred because the annuity component made up a low share of the total HW measure and the correlation between income and wealth was well under 1. Although overall inequality and poverty were similar for income and HW measures, the incidence of poverty by subgroup depended on the measure used.The final section presents a dynamic view of poverty and inequality. Year-to-year changes in poverty were substantial. Because of the use of a relative poverty concept and the rise in real incomes, the real income poverty line rose by 15 percent between 1963 and 1964. Still, of those in income poverty in 1963, 37 percent managed to escape poverty in 1964. The paper shows how the degree to which poverty was stable or transitory varied substantially by age and country of origin.

Notes: This paper describes a study designed to provide quarterly estimates of the real capital stock of the United States by sector and industry, which is being undertaken by the Conference Board. It surveys the history of wealth estimation in the United States, and goes on to describe work now in progress both in the Bureau of Economic Analysis and by private researchers. It then continues with a description of the methodology being used in the Conference Board study.

Notes: The reliability of national accounts is determined by the adequacy of a great variety of data sources and estimating methods. This inquiry focuses on major conceptual and methodological problems, and while it does not solve the reliability problem, it provides a framework for reliability analysis and suggests criteria for the evaluation of results; it also assists the producers of national accounts in determining the major trade-offs between different areas of possible data improvement.

Notes: This article present estimates, in current prices, of the national wealth of Japan and of about a dozen components for twelve benchmark dates between 1885 and 1973, the distance ranging, with one exception, from five to twelve years. The estimates are derived by a combination of (a) Ohkawa's perpetual inventory estimates of reproducible fixed assets for the period from 1885 to 1940 and Economic Planning Agency censuses for 1950 to 1965, roughly extrapolated to 1973; with (b) estimates of other components of national wealth (land, inventories, consumer durables and net foreign assets) taken for the pre-war period chiefly from census-type data and derived for the postwar period from miscellaneous, mainly official, sources.As in most countries the current value of Japan's national wealth increased until World War II considerably more slowly than its national product, which expanded with extraordinary rapidity. In the postwar period, however, the ratio showed a slight upward trend reaching by 1973 fully 3 1/2. The ratio of all reproducible assets to national product showed a similar pattern at a lower level, reaching 2 1/2 in 1973. In contrast the ratio of so-called productive assets (non-residential buildings, equipment and inventories) failed to show a definite secular trend remaining between 1.5 and 2.2 at all but one benchmark date.Changes in the structure of national wealth over the past century were pronounced, but very different before and after World War II. Up to the 1940's, the share of land declined sharply from about one-half to less than one-fourth, to the benefit primarily of producer durables and non-residential structures. In the last quarter of a century, in contrast, the extraordinary rise in urban land prices brought the share of land in national wealth back to one-third (though the share of agricultural land continued to decline rapidly), while that of producer and consumer durables continued to increase.

Notes: The purpose of this article is to record the history of the national income and product accounts of the United States, concentrating on the period 1932–47. During that period the single national income aggregate evolved into a set of accounts and the estimates emerged as an important analytical tool. Interviews with participants in these developments were extensively utilized to trace the events, people, ideas, and other factors which shaped the history of the accounts.The generally recognized need for economic information during the Great Depression stimulated the request that the Department of Commerce undertake what became the first official continuing series on national income in the United States. These estimates were prepared with the cooperation of the National Bureau of Economic Research and were published in 1934. By the late 1930's, estimates were extended to include income by state and a monthly series. World War II was the impetus for the development of product, or expenditure, estimates. By the mid-1940's, the estimates had evolved into a set of income and product accounts–a consolidated production account, sector income and outlay accounts, and a consolidated saving-investment account–designed to provide a bird's-eye-view of the economy. During this period uses of the accounts widened; analysis of wartime production goals and anti-inflation policy are noteworthy examples. The National Income, 1947 Edition was the culmination of a period of intensive conceptual discussion, extension of data sources, and improvement of estimating techniques. Thereafter the mainlines of development are more familiar, encompassing refinement and elaboration of the estimates and proliferation of uses.

Notes: This is a study of the first order incidence of government taxation and expenditure policies on the incomes of families and unattached individuals in Canada in 1970. The specific purposes of the study are twofold. The first is to estimate for calendar year 1970 the first order incidence of governments’actual tax, transfer, and expenditure policies on spending units. The second objective is to simulate the changes in this incidence that would have occurred in 1970 if the new federal personal income tax, unemployment insurance, old age sccurity and family allowance programs had been in operation during that year. The methodology is similar to that used by W. Irwin Gillespie in his pioneering 1964 study for the Royal Commission on Taxation.It is concluded that the 1970 incidence of the combined tax and transfer programs of all levels of government is broadly redistributive, with net incidence of federal government programs being considerably more redistributive than that of provincial and local governments. In general, the public sector provides large net benefits to families and individuals with incomes of less than $4,000, declining net benefits to families earning from $4,000 to $11,000 and levies small but increasing levels of net tax on families and individuals with incomes in excess of $11,000. This general conclusion is relatively insensitive to the precise assumptions made about the shifting of taxes and the distribution of expenditures on pure public goods. From simulation experiments, recent reforms of the federal income tax, unemployment insurance, old age security and family allowance systems were estimated to increase the amount of redistribution from the rich to the poor.

Notes: The persistence of poverty and income inequality in less developed countries (LDCs) is a source of serious concern to development economists. To understand the structure of inequality, several researchers using a variety of methodologies have measured the importance of various contributory factors to overall income variability. The available literature—which now includes studies of Brazil, Mexico, Iran, the Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Pakistan, and Colombia-has been reviewed elsewhere (Fields, forthcoming). This paper presents additional evidence for urban Colombia, in the process raising some important methodological issues which bear on the design of future research studies.The data set used in this paper is described in Section I. The decomposition of Colombian inequality by functional income source is presented in Section 11 for micro data. Section I11 examines the robustness of source decomposition procedures to data aggregation. Section IV presents inequality decompositions by city, and Section V by other income-determining characteristics. Conclusions appear in Section VI.

Notes: Using a simple simulation model, this paper assesses the impact of relative movements in asset prices on the distribution of wealth during the 1969–75 period. Because of the strong negative correlation between wealth level and the ratio of debt to wealth, this particular inflation induced a substantial drop in the overall level of wealth inequality. Moreover, comparing the portfolios of different demographic groups, we found that middle-aged households gained relatively to younger and older ones, married couples gained relatively to singles, whites gained relatively to non-whites, and home-owners gained relatively to renters. The biggest gainers from this inflation were home-owners with large mortgages and the biggest losers the large stock holders.

Notes: Responding to a perceived growing interest in human wealth estimates, this paper offers a framework for measuring the aggregate stock of human capital and then implements the procedure for the United States male population age 14 to 75. Unlike previous estimates of human wealth that are based upon historical or resource costs, these estimates measure the capital stock as the discounted resent-value of expected lifetime returns. In the estimation, returns are equated with earnings data from the 1970 U.S. Census 15 percent Public Use Sample for out-of-school males, adjusted for employment and survival probabilities, adjusted for an assumed exogenous growth in future earnings, and discounted at 7.5 percent.We provide cross-sectional estimates of individual stocks of human capital by age and educational attainment, as well as expected lifetime wealth profiles for individuals by level of education. These individual profiles can be used to obtain direct estimates of age-specific depreciation which suggest human capital is subject to significant and prolonged appreciation before nearly straight-line depreciation begins around middle age. This finding is all the more significant since resource-cost estimates of human capital which must assume a depreciation pattern to obtain stocks have always imposed a much faster rate much sooner.Finally, an aggregate estimate of the stock of human capital for all males is supplied and its sensitivity to the choice of the discount rate, tax laws, and expected exogenous growth is analyzed. This seemingly-conservative stock estimate is then compared to a much lower resource-cost estimate offered recently by John Kendrick. A discount rate over 20 percent would be needed to equate the two measures. In trying to reconcile the two figures, we raise some new questions about the validity of both approaches for human capital accounting.

Notes: This study is concerned with an effort to analyze changes in costs and prices in the Australian economy by tracing the effects of changes in wages and import prices through the stages of production, using a disaggregated input-output model with lags. The object of constructing the model was to improve, by introducing lags, the accuracy of predictions of the effect of cost changes on prices, and to show the lag structures. Data problems encountered are discussed, and the need for integration of price statistics to enhance their usefulness for analyses such as this is emphasized. Concepts and sources of data are discussed in some detail in an appendix.

Notes: For some considerable time the interest in price statistics has mainly been focused on their use as “intermediate goods”. The requirements of a system of price index numbers which have to be established in this connection are largely in the field of statistical coordination (integration of statistics on quantities, values and prices).Recently the inflation problem has given rise to an increased interest in price statistics as “final goods”. A meaningful analysis of inflation will devote attention to the relation between input prices and output prices. In this article several versions of an analysis of prices of final demand categories based on an ordinary Leontief input-output scheme are presented and the needs for price statistics are discussed. In fact a self-contained system of price statistics emerges from the price analysis.There is a difference in the nature of the price index numbers required in compiling input-output tables in constant prices (Paasche) and that in the case of price analysis (Laspeyres). However the need for price observation runs largely parallel because in both cases the same detailed information on price developments will probably be used.Price analysis gives the possibility of a step-by-step approach in building up a system of price index numbers.

Notes: This paper is in 7 sections. Section 1 gives as background a chronological account of the steps taken in the United Kingdom, from 1974 to late 1977, towards the development of a new system of accounting in company reports which would allow for the effect of changing costs and prices on the measurement of profit and of capital employed in the business. Section 2 discusses the main features of the system, known as current cost accounting, as it is seen in the United Kingdom. Section 3 surveys the relationship between current cost accounting and the national income and expenditure statistics, and the likely implications of the introduction of current cost accounting upon the quality of macro-economic statistics, including estimates of national and sector balance sheets. Section 4 describes some of the problems of implementing current cost accounting, particularly in special situations, and outlines the solutions which were proposed in the “Exposure Draft” published in 1976 by the accountancy profession in the United Kingdom. Section 5 considers the definition of distributable profit in relation to the need to maintain capital, considering the concept of gain, the system of valuing assets and liabilities, and the enterprise's capacity to take on additional debt as a means of financing its assets. Section 6 briefly surveys the implications for taxation, price control and price setting. Section 7 concludes by surveying the scene at the end of 1977 and by looking at likely future developments.

Notes: This article explores the assumptions underlying present definitions of national income in its principal uses, and considers the alterations that would be needed to allow for the inclusion of environmental quality. A numerical example illustrates the impact of alternative measures. The discussion concludes that if we want national income to conform more closely to theoretical concepts of welfare indices, then we need to include a proxy for those environmental services that would not be completely free goods if it were possible to overcome their inherent non-marketability. The least unsatisfactory proxy would be the spending on environmental protection.

Notes: This paper examines the causes and consequences of the inflationary process in terms of its impact upon the national accounting flows, illustrated by the case of France during the period 1966–76. The first section of the paper discusses the apparent causes of inflation, and lays out the circuits through which inflation is propagated. The second section looks behind the apparent causes to examine more closely the reasons for the observed behavior. The final section considers the consequences of inflation in terms of factor allocation, and in turn its impact upon unemployment, the balance of payments, and the rate of growth.

Notes: In the June 1977 issue of the American Economic Review extraordinary attention was given to the statistical problem of measuring the effect on inequality in current income arising from differences associated with age. The method adopted by Paglin was severely criticized although everyone recognized the value of Paglin's unusual, if not original, emphasis on the importance of the underlying issue.This paper is not primarily concerned with the statistical problem of correcting data on current income distributions for income-age differences. It is concerned mainly with the lifetime income perspective itself-with ways of viewing the long-term path of persons and of ways of viewing inequalities in that path as they develop within and among different generations.The paper discusses issues of measurement on a birth-cohort or longitudinal basis, recent trends for selected cohorts, intra-and inter-cohort variances in lifetime income, and various policy issues, for example, the equity of the U.S. Social Security System viewed on a lifetime dimension.

Notes: The main purpose of this paper is to discuss some of the measurement problems in connection with the perpetual inventory method applied for estimates of capital stock. In the Federal Republic of Germany, highly aggregated capital stock data by business sector are compiled by the Federal Statistical Office within its national accounts calculations, while more detailed capital stock estimates by industrial sectors are published by the German Institute of Economic Research (DIW) in Berlin. Because of various gaps in the statistical sources, the accuracy of the capital stock calculations is not yet entirely satisfactory. Aside from the problem of establishing long time series for gross fixed capital formation in constant prices for all sectors, it is difficult to obtain reliable data on the inter-sectoral transactions in secondhand capital goods. In addition, there are problems of determining price indices and service life distributions of the fixed assets in the various parts of the economy. This paper shows a way to arrive at a reasonably close approximation to the latter problem.

Notes: This paper is about the theory of the measurement of real income. By “theory of measurement” I mean the characterization of statistical terms as variables in a model, just as real consumption is characterized as an indicator of utility and the consumer price index is characterized as the cost of attaining a given level of utility in the economic theory of index numbers developed by Konus, Frisch and others half a century ago. I identify five logically distinct and internally-consistent concepts of real income: maximum sustainable consumption, consumption plus the output of new capital goods, consumption plus the increase in the capital stock where capital can be measured in two quite separate ways, and the sum of actual consumption and consumption forgone in the investment process. The last of these concepts is the most appropriate as a guide to producing long time series of real income for measuring a country's rate of economic growth.

Notes: Recent attempts to measure value of household work and other non-market activities have been based on a simplistic interpretation of Opportunity Cost of Time Theory; this paper attempts to refine this and develop practical definitions from basic Utility Theory. First a distinction is made between economic and other activities, the former being the only ones subject to dollar-measurement; we recognize economic activities can occur outside the market and focus our analysis upon these latter. In the framework of Becker-Lancaster a Household-Production Function is posited which produces jointly such non-market economic activities-called indirect utility-and welfare or satisfaction- called utility. A criterion for identifying the indirect utility activities (Third-Person Criterion) is outlined, and related to time-use survey data.Finally, four practical estimation methods are outlined: simple opportunity cost of time; gross replacement cost; individual function replacement cost; and the full production function approach. This latter, which includes evaluation of capital contributions, is deemed theoretically most valid but for present purposes least practical because of lack of data on domestic capital stock. The paper concludes that there exists both a theoretical basis for valuing non-market activities, and the necessary data to apply the formulas developed.

Notes: This paper gives a general description of the principles and methods in connection with making estimates of capital stock and capital consumption in the Swedish National Accounts, with breakdowns into industries and purposes of government services. The first section of the paper deals with definitions, principles and related questions. The major part of the estimates have been made according to the perpetual inventory method. The principles of this method are summarized. A number of problems relating to price indices are also described, as well as problems of valuation of capital for net worth and capital consumption estimates. The second section describes the methods of estimation and sources of data. The calculations have been made on a level of disaggregation into 41 industries and 13 purposes of government services. Three methods are used, i.e., direct estimates for capital objects, where some form of current stock data has been available, insurance values as proxy for replacement values, and perpetual inventory estimates. Comparisons between estimates according to the various methods are made in a number of cases.In the third section a few special problems regarding the quality of the estimates and the possibilities of improving the estimates are explored. The main problems refer to the lack of gross fixed capital formation data, in the form of detailed series which are consistent, cover a long period, and are deflated with an adequate set of price indices. The lack of information on survival curves and durabilities of various types of capital objects is also a severe set-back. Direct inventories would improve the level of the estimates, but they would also be difficult and costly to undertake. The change in capital stock would in any case have to be determined on the basis of gross fixed capital formation data.

Notes: This paper examines the data base available in four South Asian countries, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, for the examination of trends in real inequality and poverty. Taking the position that sample surveys of household income and consumption are the only really adequate bases on which size distributions of income for a less developed country can be constructed, the paper examines in Section I the reliability of the surveys available in the four countries. Section II evaluates available price data. Section III looks at directions for future development of data collection. The conclusion is reached that sample surveys regularly conducted in these countries do not provide a particularly good basis for this type of analysis. Needed alterations include permitting access to the primary data (or redesign of published tabulations to meet the needs of this type of analysis), use of per capita rather than total household income and consumption, better coverage of regions and occupations, and exploitation of the price data implicit in the survey data collected. Further, the surveys themselves need to be overhauled, especially with regard to timing of interviews. The paper concludes with a short discussion of alternatives to estimates of inequality that can be used to measure absolute deprivation, such as the QUAC stick for identifying nutritional insufficiency.

Notes: This paper seeks to set out in some detail an accounting structure for the public sector of developing countries which will provide the information essential for development planning. The public sector is of course of special importance in planning because of its sheer size and its pivotal position for altering the contours of the entire economy. Yet the information available for this strategic area often falls far short of what is needed, and also of what could be provided with more effort.The paper is divided into a number of sections, the first two of which are concerned with demarcating the public sector and with the nature of the accounting framework proposed. These are followed by sections dealing with the distinction between development and other expenditures; the need for separate financial information; public enterprises; the grouping of expenditures according to the purposes served; and income distribution. A final section touches briefly on some of the data problems involved in implementing the system. In addition, a full set of accounts for the public sector and its components is appended.

Notes: For purposes of analyzing the nature and meaning of index number formulas to be used in the calculation of factor productivity, a distinction is made between interetemporal comparison of factor productivity for a single country and contemporaneous comparison of factor productivity in two different countries. In the former case, the country in question is supposed ideally to be realizing fully its production possibilities, and the concern is seen as appraisal of shifts in such possibilities over time due to the advance of technological knowledge. Following Moorsteen such an advance is taken to be represented by the change in capacity to produce a standard mix of outputs per unit of a standard mix of inputs. Any mix might be standard, but those actually realized at the times in question are of particular interest.The index number formulas to be applied then depend on the assumed shape of the functions representing production possibilities. The conventional practice of aggregating output arithmetically and inputs geometrically, for example, is in order where production possibilities are given by an elaborated Cobb-Douglas function, but achieves only more or less approximate results otherwise. The analysis necessarily bears also on the prices at which inputs and outputs are to be valued.For the case of contemporaneous comparison of different countries, technological knowledge is taken ideally to be the same in the countries considered. Hence the concern is to gauge differences in production efficiency, i.e., realization of production possibilities. With production capacity understood to reflect any shortfall from possibilities, and hence production inefficiency in that sense, the analysis proceeds much as before, but given the fact of inefficiency determination of suitable prices for valuation of inputs and outputs becomes relatively difficult. Alternative expedients, none entirely satisfactory, are explored.

Notes: The elegant general equilibrium world of Arrow and Debreu has had a considerable mathematical development in the last decade. Underlying this work is an extremely parsimonious model of the economic system. In particular, only one economic actor is distinguished, the consumer who maximizes his welfare (the firm which maximizes profit is an automation). One class of economic entities is considered. These are goods and services. There is no important operational distinction made between a good, which is durable, and a service, which is not.It is suggested here that a more fruitful basic economic model needed to achieve a unification of micro and macroeconomic theory needs both more actors and more basic economic units. Specifically, the structure of process in a political-economy is such that even at the level of relatively abstract theory operational differences among consumers, entreprenuers, administrators, financiers, and politicans should be discernible. Furthermore, several basic economic entities (or “basic particle”) must play important discernible roles in an adequate theory. In partiuclar, in the “real sector” physical assets should play a mahor role, i.e., the distinction between durable goods and consumables or services should be important. The paper sector must also be present with the roles of flat money, ownership claims and contracts all distinguished. It is argued here that any economy can be characterized in terms of two real and six paper basic units: goods, services and six financial instruments. All other financial instruments can be obtained as mixtures of this basic set.

Notes: An attempt is made in this paper to identify and quantify the relative influence of several economic, social, and demographic factors on variations in the size distribution of family incomes in 208 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSAs) in the United States in 1959. Using a simple ordinary least squares model with Gini's concentration ratio (R) as the proxy for family income inequality, the estimating equations explain up to 89 percent of the SMSA-to-SMSA variation. The “best” explanatory variables are those having to do with size of nonwhite population, occupational structure, and median years of education. City size and region—which are represented by dummy variables—are also revealed as playing an important role, both on their own and in conjunction with other of the independent variables.

Notes: This study examines the effects of public expenditure on production activity and private consumption activity. An input-output model with consumption functions connected is used for evaluating the repercussions of public expenditure. Taking both production and consumption repercussions into account, it is concluded that in the year 1965 public expenditure generated 26 percent of domestic incomes and 18 percent of imports. Viewed in terms of the shares of different types of income generated, 72 percent of public expenditure goes to domestic income, and the remaining 28 percent to imports. Forty-five percent of public expenditure returns directly as income to general government. The study also examines the effects of public expenditure by industry and over time (1959 to 1965).

Notes: Starting from the proposition that economic welfare is better measured by the capitalized value of expected future income at age 18 than by income at a point of time, the present paper explores the bias introduced in comparison of earnings and income distributions.The earning distribution chosen for study is that for males in 1959 in the United States. It is shown that earnings distributions are biased and therfore can be considered highly misleading in most comparisons unless the comparison involves two groups with identical age distributions and identical distributions of earnings over the working life of earners.Further, a most striking effect can be discerned in comparing the earnings to the present value distributions by educational level. As one moves up the educational ladder, the within-group distribution of lifetime income becomes more and more equal, in sharp contrast to the findings for the distribution of earnings at a point in time.The result are sufficiently interesting and striking to warrant further studies of distributions of present value of lifetime expected earnings (and income).

Notes: This article reports on the plans of the member countries of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) in the area of the purchasing power parity comparisons of national product and similar aggregates. A series of comparisons of the U.S.S.R. with other individual member countries was made for 1959,1966, and 1973. A new series will be undertaken for the year 1978. The scope of the program will be expanded to cover several new aggregates, including productivity concepts and total consumption of the population. The article discusses the conceptual and methodological problems and plans. Among other matters, attention is being given to the possibility of reducing the number of specifications priced, without sacrificing accuracy.

Notes: The problem of identification and classification of off-shore financial flows and extra-territorial funds is discussed with special reference to the case of the “captive” insurance market in Bermuda. The problem is examined in the context of the UN SNA definitions relating to the evaluation of insurance activities and the difficulty of gaining access to relevant and complete data. The conclusion is reached that the conduct of off-shore financial operations by local institutions and the resulting surpluses generated remain essentially extranational and thus contribute very little to the domestic value added of the tax haven concerned. Furthermore, by its very nature, information relating to the transactors involved, as well as the value of their transactions, is difficult to obtain. This raises a much wider issue, however, as to whether such surpluses are ever identified in any country's national income estimates.

Notes: This paper has two main points. First, the usefulness of the industry detail called for in the SNA would be increased if it were altered to facilitate the construction of price and quantity aggregates classified by stage-of-process sectors. Second, the price and quantity data so arranged should be augmented by data on behaviorally related variables classified the same way. The feasibility of the stage-of-process approach is demonstrated by a table showing the high degree to which the U.S. input-output table for 1967 can be triangularized. The analytical usefulness of the approach is demonstrated through analysis of changes in prices, output, unfilled orders and finished goods inventories for primary and for finished goods manufacturers.

Notes: This article proposes a method of characterizing the growth process using two parameters, a production index measuring growth, and a structural change index measuring the changes in the composition of output. It discusses the properties of the structural change index that is developed, including its relation to the bias in growth rates measured by conventional index numbers. It then applies the measure to an examination of Yugoslav industry for the period 1952–71.

Notes: Expanding a conventional national accounting framework in order to include activities that are not produced or consumed via ordinary markets requires the accountant to adopt some procedure for assigning unit values to these activities. Often, as is the case with governmental services, unit values are equated with unit costs of production.This paper argues that the appropriate valuation generally differs depending on whether the activity is viewed from the perspective of the producer, the consumer, or society. The theoretical justification for this position is developed first for the case of nonmarketed environmental services and then for in-kind governmental transfers.Rather than choosing a single unit value, the paper argues for and outlines an accounting system that will permit the simultaneous adoption of more than one valuation. Techniques for implementing the system for the environment and for in-kind transfers are discussed.Finally, drawing on the experience of the authors, the paper argues for the importance of developing data sets with more than one valuation. The authors claim that the effort to implement the system has generated valuable ancillary data sets even though data limitations and unresolved methodological questions have precluded complete implementation.

Notes: Starting out from the observation that both imports and exports may be viewed as the difference between domestic consumption (use) and production, static standard theory of biases in consumption and production indices is brought to bear upon trade indices: Laspeyres tends to overrate when applied to imports and to underrate when applied to exports; for Paasche, the opposite holds true. Hence, terms of trade tend to be underrated (exaggerated) when based upon Laspeyres (Paasche) price indices. The problem of extending these conclusions to the case of changes in production frontiers and preference maps is discussed. When homotheticity is absent, correlation between price and quantity relatives may upset the simple conclusions. This is of special importance in the large-country situation. Dynamics further complicate the situation. A cobweb mechanism in exports may thus reverse the static results.

Notes: This article considers the major results of a study of relative wage structures in the LAFTA region. It first discusses the nature and methodology of the study, which was undertaken for ECIEL. Data on the size of labor income differences are introduced, and an attempt is made to determine the causes of such differences, and to relate them to various wage differentials. The main findings of the study are then summarized, with discussions of inter-country, intra-country, and occupational labor income differentials and their causes. Finally, the results of the study are updated to the end of 1970, and some conclusions are derived regarding the inter-temporal behavior of wages in LAFTA.

Notes: Some relationships between NNP and economic welfare are explored in the confines of a simple, static welfare maximization model. Various assumptions concerning both the measurement of NNP and the economic system underlying this model are dropped seriatem and the implications for the correspondence between NNP and economic welfare are examined.The following conclusions emerge. There are several classes of resource reorganization in which NNP and welfare move in the same direction, so that NNP can serve as an ordinal proxy for welfare. These include changes in taxes or competitive imperfections which result in product substitution and movements along the transformation function.With a general qualification, NNP-welfare correspondence is preserved for allocative changes which affect the real costs and prices of goods included in NNP or of non-included goods in inelastic demand; changes in involuntary unemployment; and changes in technological externalities affecting producers. There are other cases where changes in NNP and welfare are not positively correlated. Included here are changes in real costs of non-included goods for which demand is elastic and changes in technological externalities imposed on consumers.

Notes: The purpose of this paper is to describe the conceptual and statistical basis of the estimates of United States public and private spending for pollution abatement and control (PAC) prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. The concepts and definitions were designed to ensure comparability with the national economic accounts since much of the analysis of the effects of environmental programs on the economy is conducted with the aid of the accounts. The work to date has been limited to pollution associated with harmful “foreign” substances and forms of energy discharged in the course of production, distribution and consumption. The conceptual base includes evaluation of benefits, but estimates completed thus far are limited to the cost of pollution abatement and control.Definitions are given for pollution, pollution abatement, direct pollution abatement cost, indirect pollution abatement cost and indirect benefits. A framework for the estimation and presentation of PAC expenditures is developed and the estimate of U.S. PAC expenditures for 1972 and 1973 is presented. A brief chronological summary of the BEA project is also provided.

Notes: This paper computes new indexes of output for refrigerators, using hedonic methods to adjust for quality change. The hedonic technique is applied in a new way (it is used to make quality adjustments to prices before they are used in the index), and the results are compared with those from methods used in previous hedonic investigations.There are three major findings. (1) Overall (1960–1972), our hedonic deflated output series rise more rapidly than conventional measures, because the price indexes used for deflation rise more slowly. (2) The output measures fluctuate more than do output measures produced by conventional methods, because adding hedonic quality adjustments to WPI indexes moves them up in some years and down in others, and the resulting adjustments to the output series were positively correlated with changes in output. (3) Applying methods used in previous studies produces larger adjustments to the published indexes, suggesting that some of the differences noted in previous studies between hedonic indexes and official published indexes are related to computational methods, not to quality adjustment.

Notes: This paper focuses on a neglected aspect of the treatment of the income unit in the construction of size distributions of income. If the size distribution is to be an indicator of the distribution of economic welfare, and if the economic welfare of each individual in society is to count equally, then conventional distributions are inconsistent with individualistic welfare functions. We estimate size distributions with each person's welfare weighted equally, and contrast these results with those weighting each household unit's welfare equally. The choice of weights is shown to affect both the level and the trend in income inequality.

Notes: In this article the authors anticipate some results of a study carried out in France and in Italy, in the framework of a wider research project aiming at analysing in some depth and at comparing the recent trends and patterns of total household consumption in some capitalist and socialist countries.1The accounting scheme used to arrive at a comprehensive definition of household consumption, inclusive of the “non-market” divisible services produced by public administrations, and to identify the share of this new aggregate which is financed by collective resources, isoutlined in the first section. In the second section, the article shows the growing relative importance of publicly-supported consumption, but it also shows that during the sixties, the overall cost of divisible public services and of social benefits provided in kind or in cash was, in both countries, almost entirely auto-financed by the household sector, via social security contributions and taxes levied on that sector's income and consumption. In the third section, comparative analysis of the recent structural evolution of the “market” and the “non-market” shares of total household consumption points out the similarities and dissimilarities between the patterns and forms of private and public spending in the two countries.The results of this analysis seem to support the thesis that unless a better integration of social policies with economic growth policies is achieved, it will not be possible to implement rational choices between the “market” and the “non-market” ways of satisfying specific population needs. The authors' conclusion is that under present circumstances, public civil expenditures will continue to rise, both in France and in Italy, more rapidly than total national resources and it will become difficult to balance total receipts and total outlays of the public sector.

Notes: After defining economic activity the author lists the chief types of non–market economic activities for which he has prepared estimates for the United States 1929–1973, and briefly describes his methodology and data sources. Some major findings are:(1) As of 1973 GNP adjusted to include the additional imputations was 63.5 percent larger than the official estimate.(2) At least since 1929 imputed values have grown faster than official GNP, especially when both are measured in terms of real factor costs.(3) The personal sector comprises a far larger portion of the national economy-almost one-third—when account is taken of imputed labor and property compensation, and its relative importance has grown.(4) Gross government product is more than 60 percent higher when the imputed rental value of public property is added to the compensation of general government employees.(5) Reflecting the relative growth of non-business wealth, imputed property income has risen much faster than monetized property income. This has mitigated the decline in the property share of expanded gross national income compared with its share in the official estimates.

Notes: This paper investigates the properties of various measures of poverty and of the “difficulty of alleviation of poverty”. It is found that the ranking properties of both kinds of indices can be quite counter-intuitive and that they could be misleading if used for policy evaluation. An alternative index is proposed; it is compared to the other indices and seems to fare rather well. To illustrate, a special reference is made to S. Anand's recent article on poverty in Malaysia.

Notes: This paper is concerned with measurement of the size distribution of personal wealth in Canada. The only available estimates of this distribution are those provided on the occasions when Statistics Canada's Survey of Consumer Finance has surveyed assets and debts. Results of the latest “SCF” to do this, that of 1977, are not yet available. The paper shows that the previous study, conducted in 1970, indicated wealth-inequality as viewed by top quantile shares roughly of the same order as estimated by others for the U.S. and U.K. A comparison of asset and debt aggregates implied by the survey, however, with independent totals indicates that for almost all items the SCF likely under-estimated true holdings. The possible relative importance of sampling and non-sampling errors in explaining this distortion is considered, drawing on Monte Carlo evidence and American validation studies of survey response. It is concluded that sampling error is unlikely to provide the explanation for SCF discrepancies in aggregates, but that non-sampling error is capable of doing so. Finally the 1970 SCF distribution of wealth is re-estimated. First a correction is made for hypothetical differential response according to true net worth. Second an attempt is made to remove the effects of under-reporting by respondents. The “best-guess” re-estimated distribution exhibits mean net worth considerably greater than shown by the SCF but only a slightly greater degree of concentration. Under certain fundamental assumptions this result is surprisingly robust. The appropriate conclusion is not that survey estimates of the distribution of wealth are reliable, but that the strong non-sampling errors affecting the 1970 Canadian SCF wealth estimates may have been composed of almost completely offsetting sources of bias.

Notes: Potential gross national product (GNP) is a measure of the aggregate supply capability of an economy, or the amount of output that could be expected at full employment. Such a measure of output at constant rates of labor and capital utilization is useful as a benchmark for economic performance, calculation of the full employment surplus as an indicator of fiscal policy, and in the projection of unemployment rates. Potential GNP for the United States is estimated for the years 1948–77, and projected for 1978–80. The calculations use a variable benchmark for the full-employment unemployment rate, based on the changing age-sex composition of the labor force, and a constant benchmark for the utilization of fixed capital. A framework for separation of productivity into trend, cycle, and irregular components is developed, and then estimated for the 1948–77 period, using quarterly data. The relationships between various age- and sex-specific unemployment rates are also estimated in construction of the variable unemployment benchmark.

Notes: A review of the United Nations System of National Accounts and its implementation by countries is presently being conducted at the United Nations Statistical Office. This article presents a personal and selective account by the author of the results of that review and its consequences for the present structure of the SNA.Information is included on the level of response by countries for the tables of the SNA national accounts questionnaire. It shows that this response is at present sparce, except for the tables on GDP by end use, cost structure and kind of economic activity.On the more detailed level the feasibility of introducing integrated sector accounts into the system has been examined and different approaches compared. Country practices suggest that one way of facilitating the introduction of such accounts would be to eliminate one essential feature of the dual classification of the SNA, i.e., the distinction between quasi-corporate and other unincorporated enterprises. Other modifications of the SNA structure implied below are the introduction on a limited scale of articulation of transactions, the inclusion of additional aggregate income and balancing items, a reallocation of data between the main accounts and the supporting tables, and a better integration of the SNA matrix with the accounts and tables of the system. A reduction of the present number of independent classifications in the SNA is suggested, based on links between categories of different classifications that are assumed in country responses to the questionnaire. A suggestion is made for a uniform valuation of goods and services and income flows, to replace the present complex valuation guidelines on approximate basic and factor values and producers’ prices.

Notes: The estimation of true basic prices in a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) has long been recognized as necessary in order to achieve uniform valuation of inputs for meaningful manipulation of the input-output table contained in a SAM, in order to assess the real effects of changes in demand, etc. In practice, approximate basic prices only have normally been calculated in order to avoid matrix inversion among other things. It is equally the case that true basic prices are required if one wishes to assess the price-raising effects of commodity taxes. It is shown through an example that approximate basic prices, as conventionally calculated, are inadequate and potentially misleading for this as indeed they are for achieving uniformity of valuation. There are also problems with the present procedure for calculating true basic prices.An alternative method of calculating true basic prices is given, which has various advantages over the existing method, and a new approximate method is also derived which appears to represent a definite improvement on the present method. For the main purpose of the paper, however, the prices of concern are those charged by producers to which the methodology equally applies.

Notes: The paper presents some estimates of the imputed dollar value of household work (HW)for Canada in 1961 and 1971, finding this to be about $16 and $38 billion respectively, equal to 40 percent of GNP. From the results we derive some implications about five questions raised in the relevant literature. First, no clear evidence of a downward trend for the ratio HW/GNP is found, contrary to U.S. results. Second, addition of HW to GNP as a welfare measure does not affect the general pattern of past growth estimates. Third, a cost–by-function method of estimating HW is found superior in its theoretical support and the detail it provides, but the opportunity-cost method, despite doubts on its theoretical validity, gives a good approximation in the aggregate, and, being simpler, is likely to remain popular. Fourth, disaggregation does matter if detail by region or family type is required, in which case data by number and ages of children and market-employment status of females are needed; for the total, a reasonable estimate (6–7 percent error)is given by further aggregated data. Fifth, sensitivity of HW to accuracy in the data used is large only for female wages chosen, in particular for the function “cooking”. Finally, though available data must be manipulated to fit the needs of HW, especially for earlier years, the extent of this is not all that much more than is commonly found for GNP estimations.

Notes: This paper discusses the problem of valuing the time spent on household production and presents estimates of that production for the United States in 1960 and 1970. The estimates are derived by using both opportunity cost and market cost valuations of household time. A comparative analysis of these estimates concludes first that opportunity cost estimates exceeded market cost estimates by 1.0 to 3.0 percent of the GNP. Second, the ratio of household production to the GNP, although declining slightly between 1960 and 1970, may in the long run tend to be relatively stable. These conclusions do not support the popular views that over time household production will decline in relative magnitude, or that the opportunity cost method of valuing household time, relative to the market cost method, is significantly upward biased.

Notes: Construction has traditionally constituted one of the problem areas in the preparation of industry price and quantity statistm with in the system of national accounts of most countries. The difficulty stems from what is considered to be the unique character of construction projects. This has unnecessarily impeded the calculation of output price indexes and has resulted in the use of various input-based prices as proxies for output prices.One of the objectives of the development of the system of construction price statistics described in this paper is to permit deflation of the outputs of construction industries in order to produce industry output data in constant prices in a manner consistent with measures for the rest of the economy. This is a more promising approach to improving constant price industry and expenditure measures within the SNA framework than attempting such improvements through the collection of a vast array of quantity data.Construction industries sell specified configurations of materials-in-place which are, to borrow the jargon of other fields, sub-assemblies of some total system. As in other areas of industrial pricing, some of these products are simple and some are complex. Trade contractors sell these sub-assemblies or commodities mainly to an owner-builder or to a general contractor who, in turn, resells the trade contractors’ commodities along with whatever sub-assemblies the general contractor has produced. These sub-assemblies, when combined with, for example, the relevant outputs (or sub-assemblies) of manufacturers, the design services of service industries and the purchasers’ own contributions, yield the wide variety of plant and structures which constitute the various classes of gross fixed capital formation, which are not typically solely the outputs of the construction industries.The resulting contractors’ selling price indexes will provide deflators for the whole range of outputs of the various construction industries. These will become part of the system of industry selling price indexes from which relevant indexes for the various goods and services can be selected and combined with appropriate weights to yield arrays of deflators for the highly complex capital expenditures of business, institutions and government.Ultimately this integrated system of construction industry statistics will permit the preparation of gross output and value added measures, in both current and constant prices, to be calculated for the construction industries as an integral part of the Canadian System of National Accounts, as well as provide a key element for improving the deflation of fixed capital formation.

Notes: The multiplier effects resulting from an isolated increase in the level of public consumption within different public branches are investigated and the policy implications are discussed. The article begins with a theorethical analysis which shows why and in which ways these multipliers can be expected to differ between public branches. Thereafter, an empirical investigation is given, based on simulations with an econometric model of the Swedish economy. In this model the public activities are divided into 13 different public branches. The effects of an increase in public consumption on employment, imports and private consumption are found to differ considerably depending on which branch of the public sector is expanded. Some implications for short run stabilization policy are discussed. The article ends with a special analysis of the implications for a medium term planning problem: the trade off between private and public consumption growth. This analysis throws new light on the old topic “private or public consumption”. In an economy with highly differentiated production in the public sector the trade-off is shown not to be unique. The sacrifice of private consumption growth corresponding to a given growth of public consumption expenditures will vary considerably according to the distribution of the public consumption growth within the different branches of the public sector.

Notes: The general problems of distinguishing between theoretical concepts and practical measures concerning capital are considered and the difference between various stock and flow measures of capital and their respective uses is defined. The qualifications and limitations to these measures in the interpretation of output changes are also discussed. Attention is concentrated on the initial, basic problem of how to measure gross capital stock and the special difficulties involved in using the perpetual inventory simulation method and census procedures in less developed countries to derive such estimates are broadly defined. Some of the special problems encountered in an attempt to undertake an inventory of industrial capital assets in Lesotho are also referred to and the paper concludes by expressing the view that there are at present far more important issues demanding higher statistical priority in less developed countries than the evaluation of capital stocks.

Notes: This paper examines several nonmoney components of economic welfare in both a theoretical and an empirical framework, computes the distributional ranking of aged families arising from such a measure, and subsequently examines the target effectiveness of eleven programs of the U.S. federal government aimed at the aged. While the theoretical discussion attempts to cover all factors contributing to the economic welfare of the aged, the empirical measure is somewhat less comprehensive, excluding the value of nonmarket productive activities and leisure time as well as benefits derived from direct government expenditures and some in-kind transfers and taxes. The study makes use of a subsample of the 1967 Survey of Economic Opportunity data composed of all families with at least one aged member. Specific attention is devoted to dissaving from net worth, in-kind transfers, incidence of taxes, and intrafamily transfers. Government cash and in-kind transfers are found to constitute a third of the total measured economic welfare of the aged, and the impact of each of these programs is examined individually. As might be expected, public assistance and public housing are the programs of most benefit to the aged poor. Medicaid and Medicare are substantially less so, and Social Security is distributionally neutral. Such programs as unemployment insurance are of little benefit to the aged. Tax expenditures, finally, provide no benefits to even the lower half of the distribution.

Notes: This paper has three parts. The first part attempts to analyse the prevailing situation in developing countries. The second part presents a feasible accounting system for such countries, by and large within the framework of the SNA. The third part goes beyond this and tries to obtain a more concise matrix (covering, in concept, those given in the accounting system) furnishing minimal sets of variables and classifications which one has, in any case, to play within the context of policy issues of developing countries. All three authors are jointly responsible for the first part. Uma Datta Roy Choudhury has drafted the second part. The third part has been drafted by the other two authors.

Notes: This paper presents some preliminary findings from a research study by the OECD Development Centre into the treatment of subsistence activities in national accounts. It summarizes the results of a questionnaire on country practices, and reports on the findings with respect to shares of non-monetary production in GDP, methods of estimation, and usefulness of the resulting estimates. Among the 48 developing countries covered, the share of non-monetary value added in total GDP ranges from over 40 percent for the poorer countries of Africa to 5 percent or less for the more advanced countries of Latin America and Southern Europe. In countries where rural living standards are much below those in urban areas, non-monetary activities may be very important to the well-being of a large number of people, even though they form only a small part of GDP, and it is still important to make realistic estimates for subsistence output. Agriculture is obviously the main item in non-monetary production, accounting often for over 80 percent of the total. Most countries use some kind of “producers' prices” for valuing agricultural output. Few countries now publish separate figures for non—monetary activities. For many countries, doing so would involve a considerable amount of extra work, but for a number of planning purposes it does seem important to distinguish subsistence activities separately.

Notes: The paper details the methodology used and the results obtained in a recently completed study of the total U.S. tax burden based on microdata survey files. The method of constructing the data base—the 1966 MERGE file—is discussed, and the needed imputations and adjustments to income and taxes to bring the file totals up to national income aggregates are described. An explanation is included of adjusted family income, a unique income concept used in the study to measure and compare tax burdens.The study involved the evaluation of errective tax burdens under eight different assumptions regarding the incidence of the various major taxes. Those assumptions are detailed and the results of the study are presented. The essential conclusion of the study is that the overall impact of the tax system is virtually proportional for 90 percent of the families in the United States regardless of the incidence assumptions used. However, substantial differences in tax burdens were found among various subgroups of the population.

Notes: Empirical work on the division of real output and prices into tradable and nontradable components has not kept pace with theoretical developments. The conventional proxies of prices and productivity by tradable and nontradable sector are examined and found deficient in several important respects. It is demonstrated that an approach that relies on the long–standing data on gross domestic product by industry of origin can overcome some of these deficiencies. These data are used to construct new annual measures of prices and productivity for tradable and nontradable output for 12 industrial countries over the period 1950–73. While far from precise, the new measures are consistent with the following criteria for distinguishing between tradables and nontradables: the degree of foreign trade participation should be higher for tradables than for nontradables; the degree of international commodity arbitrage, as measured by cross-country correlations of price changes, should be higher for tradables than nontradables; and tradables should be closer substitutes than nontradables for traded goods from other countries (imports).Despite the considerable conceptual advantages of the new measures of prices and productivity over the conventional proxies, correlation analysis indicates that the new and old measures usually move together rather closely in our 12 subject countries. The correlations are higher across the alternative relative productivity measures than for the alternative relative price measures.

Notes: The analysis of the redistribution processes via taxation, transfers and collective services raises several methodological problems among which tax incidence is not the least important. Through two hypotheses of incidence of employers’ social contribution the results of the redistribution of public funds lead to four types of conclusions. Despite the fact that about one third of the French national income is involved in the processes there is no clearcut evidence of any redistribution, except for the nonactive population in so far pensions are considered as redistributed. The positive effects which certain mechanisms may have (e.g. income tax…) are to a certain extent offset, or neutralized, by the anti-redistributive effects of indirect taxation and social contributions. It appears that the results of the redistribution not only depend on the institution network, on the evolution of demographic structures and the rate of growth for the various types of income but also on lack of adaptation between the evolution of the three groups of factors. In last analysis, the reason why redistribution does not appear to have more far-reaching consequences is that social policy amalgamates mechanisms often set up in isolation, whereas any reduction in inequalities must be based on a conscious awareness of the inter-dependence of the situations which create and foster these same inequalities.

Notes: This paper explores the sensitivity of the size distribution of family income in Canada to alternative definitions of income. These alternative definitions examine both wealth generally in the form of an annuity equivalent, and home ownership in the form of imputed rent. An adjustment for family size differences is also made. The impact of these adjustments is assessed for average incomes, inequality, and the incidence of low income for different age groups. The adjustments do have significant effects that vary by age; in particular, the economic position of the elderly seems understated by the usual data. Also, methodological considerations, such as the direct use of micro data and the choice of inequality indicator are shown to be significant.

Notes: Do-it-yourself activities are, by definition, those for which a choice must exist between doing it oneself or hiring someone else. This means they typically involve the own account production of services, but whereas it is customary to include most goods produced on own account in GDP services are conventionally excluded. In principle, however, it is possible to envisage a comprehensive and unique measure of the total final output of all the goods and services produced within an economy whether for sale or own use. Such a measure would be better than GDP as an indicator of long term changes in economic welfare, being independent of any shifts in the ratio of market to non-market production. Moreover, it would be a homogeneous measure with clearly defined limits in contrast to improvised indices of welfare which mix economic and non-economic variables in arbitrary and subjective ways. However, the need for a measure of market output, or something very close to it such as GDP, is still as strong as ever as soon as attention is switched from measurement of long term growth to problems associated with market disequilibria, such as unemployment and inflation.

Notes: Redistributional effects of income transfers, taxation and social goods in Finland have been studied making use of household surveys for 1966 and 1971 and the input-output study for 1970. According to the study the selection of income to be used as the criterion in carrying out the decile grouping substantially influences the picture that is obtained of the magnitude of redistribution. If factor income is used as the criterion in carrying out the decile grouping, the redistribution appears substantially greater than when disposable income is used as the criterion. On the other hand, whether income is calculated per capita or per household does not substantially influence the overall picture of redistribution obtained. The breakdown of factor income seems to have remained practically the same in Finland in the interval between the study years, while redistribution seems to have levelled income differences more in 1971 than in 1966.

Notes: This study attempts to examine the inter-occupational differences in the patterns of cash and in-kind expenditure in rural India on the basis of a special tabulation of The National Sample Survey (NSS), 18th round (February 1963-January 1964) consumer expenditure data. The occupational groups considered here are (i) cultivators, (ii) agricultural labourers, (iii) other agriculture, and (iv) non-agricultural occupations.The analysis is carried out primarily in terms of curves relating item-specific cash/kind expenditure to total cash/total kind expenditure for fifteen selected item-groups of expenditure. For each item-occupation combination, four two-parameter forms of Engel curve together with the log-log-inverse form are estimated and the comparisons across occupation groups are made separately on the basis of each of the two-parameter curve forms which were found to give the best fit for at least one occupation group as well as the log-log-inverse form, using analysis of covariance technique.The results indicate that so far as the cash components of item expenditures are concerned, the pattern of expenditure is considerably influenced by occupational factors. It is observed that cultivators have a cash expenditure pattern different from those of agrictural labourers and of households with non-agricultural activities. The comparison of the kind expenditure patterns does not, however, reflect any clear picture primarily because in most cases the itemwise kind expenditure functions could not be estimated satisfactorily. This analysis also suggests that the specification of itemwise cash and kind expenditure functions employed here may not be the most satisfactory ones in an economy with a high degree of non-monetization and therefore alternative specifications need be examined.

Notes: The constant price method is used here to evaluate transfers related to inflation either between households and other economic agents (essentially enterprises) or among groups of households defined by occupation, age class and so on. The results obtained are only fragmentary due to a lack of many pieces of information. The method requires in fact the splitting up of every value variation into a price component and a size component.Nevertheless, some interesting results are shown. In recent years, if the total productivity surplus has always been positive, the wealth surplus of households is sometimes positive, sometimes negative. Concerning the distribution of the productivity surplus among household groups, it has not been possible to find significant distortions, other than those which are related to differences in the propensity to save. On the contrary, marked distortions appear in the distribution of the wealth surplus due to wide differences in estate composition and indebtedness level.

Notes: As a basis for judging how public policy affects the poor, this article explores how “poor” families may be defined and how well such families can be distinguished from other families in the less developed countries. This is done by seeking proxies for poverty which are relatively easy to measure, accurate in discriminating between the poor and the non-poor, and relevant to public policy. To this end, a highly parsimonious model is developed, based on truncation and regression procedures, using only family size and number of wage earners in addition to either income or an education-age combination. Application of this model to data from household surveys in three major cities of Latin America shows that the model is highly effective in pinpointing poverty households, although the pattern of errors is not random, the most frequent type of error being to classify poverty households as non-poor.Especially significant is that the model is nearly as effective for discriminating poverty households from others when financial variables are excluded as when they are included. This would suggest that a good deal of flexibility exists in deciding what variables to include in future studies of this type. The results also suggest that even better results should be possible if more complete information is obtained on the employment status of the different members of the household and on the contribution of each to household income. Ideally, the data collection and model development should proceed in an iterative manner since there are numerous possible variables as well as alternative model formulations.

Notes: Unlike most developing countries, the Philippines has had several (four) reasonably comparable family income and expenditure surveys, covering a reasonable period of time (15 years). This study draws on those surveys and on wage data in an attempt to judge how, if at all, the distribution of income has been changing. The household survey data shows a declining share of both income and consumption for the top income groups; for the bottom quintile the share of recorded income fell while that of recorded consumption rose. When possible biases of the data are allowed for, it is hard to argue that either a narrowing or widening of income differentials occurred over these years. Real wages of a number of important occupations appear to have fallen, however. Only a partial reconciliation of the trends indicated by these wage series and the income trends for various occupational groups implicit in the household survey data was possible, indicating either data problems or the need for more subtle interpretations of the data. Since structural change in the labour force has been rapid (an increasing share being found in the high income occupations as time passed), declining wage rates for certain lower income groups cannot be taken to imply a general worsening of distribution. Our final conclusion is that distribution has probably changed little, and is about as likely to have changed one way as the other.

Notes: The paper reports on several results from a comprehensive study of the household incidence of public expenditure in Peninsular Malaysia in 1974. The results for education show a pro-poor distribution of expenditure when measured as a share of household income. Using however the criterion of each according to his needs (that is the number of school-age children per household) reverses this outcome. In agriculture, because of the importance of land settlement, benefits from public expenditure distribute predominantly in favor of the poor.The research differs from the usual study of this kind in that individual government outputs such as school years, or fertilizer loans, were defined, and in the case of education their unit costs estimated and their distribution across households measured. In the case of education, both the costs of services from capital and the households’ out-of-pocket educational costs were added to the current subsidies. As one consequence, it was seen that total expenditure for education in Malaysia exceeds one-eighth of GNP, nearly double the conventional estimate. Equally important, for the poor the burden of private costs for education even within a public system were seen to be very high.The contrasts between the strong results for education, a broad based social service, and the less conclusive results for agriculture, an economic service which impacts directly on production, were instructive in suggesting the limitations of such research in measuring the effects of government budget activity on distribution.

Notes: To adjust business accounting for inflation, one current proposal is to convert all dollar figures in existing financial statements to units of fixed general purchasing power. A widely offered alternative is to retain the dollar units but replace the historical-cost figures by current values. The two alternatives would yield very different results. After reviewing these and variant proposals, the analysis concentrates on certain major issues: the unit of measurement; the treatment of capital gains; the concept of capital maintenance; and the treatment of changes in the purchasing power of debt. Current value accounting would not correct for changes in the general price level and would involve far more difficult problems of concept and measurement than general purchasing power accounting. The latter is therefore preferable.

Notes: In this paper, we reclassify U.S. input-output data along functional lines by analyzing the use of products represented in the detailed coefficients of the 1967 interindustry study. Our new categories comprise 11 producing “industries,” services (nonproduction), energy (nonproduction), marketing, distribution, other general, crude materials, semi-finished materials, energy production, service production, and machinery replacement, furnishing products to 80 consuming industries. This functional input-output system is then used to analyze postwar structural change in the American economy. Distinct shifts in the uses of different types of inputs are indicated and the implications of these results are discussed.

Notes: The paper reports experience in constructing social accounting matrices (SAMs) for three national economies, viz. Iran, Sri Lanka and Swaziland. The SAMs focus particularly on the distribution of income through disaggregation of household sector income and outlay accounts consistent with more conventional disaggregation of production, factors, etc. The SAMs were conceived as an initial step towards understanding income distribution as an integral part of the development process and have been developed in parallel with work on planning models. Both the Iran and Sri Lanka SAMs were constructed within the context of the International Labour Office, World Employment Programme: that for Iran was intended as a contribution to the work of the Comprehensive Employment Strategy Mission to Iran under WEP auspices; while the Sri Lanka SAM was more specifically a research oriented study. The Swaziland study was financed by the Overseas Development Ministry, London as a research activity.Some learning-by-doing was involved in the sequence of SAMs and the problems encountered, solutions adopted and lessons learned provide the main substance of the paper.

Notes: Household budget data collected in 1966–1971 in eleven cities in six South American countries are used to define individual mean budget structures (means of budget shares across households). These structures are then compared by indexes of dissimilarity, calculated for the entire budget and also for major components: food, animal protein foods, nonfood, and housing and clothing. Differences among cities in real income account for much of the difference in the share of the consumer budget devoted to food, which in turn is a principal source of overall budget dissimilarity. Within the food and nonfood budgets separately, income is of somewhat less importance; prices and preferences become more significant. Budget structures tend for this reason to be similar for cities in the same country. The structure of nonfood spending also varies markedly between coastal and interior cities, largely because of differences in housing costs. The available price data account for dissimilarities which depend on the price of a single large category of spending, but they do not help explain structural differences involving many categories: prices seem more important for nonfood than for food expenditures. Regression analysis is used to weigh the importance of each variable contributing to dissimilarity.

Notes: This paper considers the need for a more integrated system of social and demographic statistics than SSDS and discusses the advantages of building it on the concept of life expectancy. The system would include a network of additive tables which would (as SNA does for economic variables) bring together leading social variables in a way that would permit the effects of exogenous changes to be quantified and compared. The author proposes as the base of such a system a table giving the expected duration of various life states (education, employment, retirement, etc.). This would be supplemented by a family of social co-efficients and fixed-weight index numbers that slot into it, allowing inter-temporal and international comparisons. The system would facilitate analysis of inequalities (regional, ethnic, etc.) and social change, and government planning of such change. It would also provide a framework for the development of national systems of social statistics.

Notes: The relevance of national accounts data to the broad development planning process which spans varying time horizons is considered. Undue emphasis on aggregated conventional macro-economic variables and recorded monetary values may have distorted the real vision and objectives of development. At the same time, other important and measurable problems like regional and distributive imbalances have often remained unquantified in traditional planning models. The UN “Supply-Disposition” table permits a summary description of the basic structure of an economy which can be easily extended within the context of the complete SNA to embrace significant social features without resort to complex inter-industry relationships. The table, however, loses few of the important dynamic economic properties of a full I–O system. It retains the means of checking the consistency of both overall policy objectives as well as basic data and it enables governments to ensure the necessary equilibrium between physical resource flows and financing capacity in formulating their development plans. The system's internal logic, combined with its potential for greater relevance and flexibility and capacity for fairly rapid and regular up-dating, makes it a most useful tool for practical planning purposes. Case studies of Zambia, Fiji and Oman are used to illustrate the fundamental concepts and underlying schematic framework of the system and its flexibility.