ALBERT

Description: We present a plate kinematic evolution of the South Atlantic which is based largely on the determination of the equatorial fracture zone trends between the African and South American continental margins. Four main opening phases are dated by oceanic magnetic anomalies, notably MO, A34, and A13, and are correlated with volcanism and tectonic events on land around the South Atlantic Ocean. The Ceara and Sierra Leone rises are probably of oceanic origin and were created 80 m.y. ago or later in their present-day positions with respect to South America and Africa.

Description: This paper concerns the linear response of the ocean to forcing at a specified frequency and wave number in the absence of mean currents. It discusses the details of the forcing function, the general properties of the equations of motion, and possible simplifications of these equations. Two representations for the oceanic response to forcing are described in detail. One solution is in terms of the normal modes of the ocean. The vertical structure of these modes corresponds to that of the barotropic and baroclinic modes; their latitudinal structure corresponds to that of inertia‐gravity and Rossby waves. These waves are eigenfunctions of Laplace's tidal equations (LTE) with the frequency as eigenvalue. The description in terms of vertically standing modes is particularly useful if the forcing is nonlocal, because only these modes can propagate into undisturbed regions. The principal result is that it is extremely difficult for baroclinic (but not barotropic) disturbances to propagate horizontally away from a forced region. Instabilities of the Gulf Stream excite disturbances that are confined to the immediate neighborhood of the current; disturbances due to instabilities of equatorial currents do not propagate far latitudinally. A second representation of the oceanic response to forcing is in terms of vertically propagating, or vertically trapped, latitudinal modes. These modes are eigenfunctions of LTE with the equivalent depth h (not the frequency) as eigenvalue. Both positive and negative eigenvalues h are necessary for completeness. The modes with h 〉 0 consist of an infinite set of inertia‐gravity waves and a finite set of Rossby waves which either propagate vertically or form vertically standing modes. The latitudinally gravest modes are equatorially trapped and have been observed in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The modes with h 〈 0 are necessary to describe the oceanic response to nonresonant forcing. In the vertical this response attenuates with increasing distance from the forcing region. Because of the shallowness of the ocean the large eastward traveling atmospheric cyclones in mid‐latitudes and high latitudes force a response down to the ocean floor. Interaction with the bottom topography will result in smaller‐scale disturbances and will affect the frequency spectrum of the response when bottom‐trapped waves are excited.

Description: A tsunami earthquake is defined as a shock which generates extensive tsunamis but relatively weak seismic waves. A comparative study is made for the two recent tsunami earthquakes, and a subduction mechanism near a deep-sea trench is discussed. These two earthquakes occurred at extremely shallow depths far off the coasts of the Kurile Islands and of eastern Hokkaido on October 20, 1963, and on June 10, 1975, respectively. Both can be regarded as an aftershock of the preceding larger events. Their tsunami heights and seismic wave amplitudes are compared with those of the preceding events. The results show that the time constants involved in the tsunami earthquakes are relatively long but not long enough to explain the observed disproportionality between the tsunamis and the seismic waves. The process times are estimated to be less than 100 s. The spatio-temporal characteristics of the two events suggest that they represent a seaward and upward extension of the rupture associated with a great earthquake which did not break the free surface at the coseismic stage. The amplitude and phase spectra of long-period surface waves and the long-period P waveforms indicate that this extension of the rupture did not take place entirely along the lithospheric interface emerging as a trench axis. It rather branched upward from the interface in a complex way through the wedge portion at the leading edge of the continental lithosphere. This wedge portion consists in large part of thick deformable sediments. A large vertical deformation and hence extensive tsunamis result from such a branching process. A shallowest source depth, steepening of rupture surfaces, and a deformable nature of the source region all enhance generation of tsunamis. The wedge portion ruptured by a tsunami earthquake is usually characterized by a very low seismic activity which is presumably due to ductility of the sediments. We suggest that this portion fractures in a brittle way to generate a tsunami earthquake when it is loaded suddenly by the occurrence of a great earthquake and that otherwise it yields slowly. Upward branching of the rupture from the lithospheric interface produces permanent deformation of the free surface which is relative uplift landward and relative subsidence trenchward of the zone of surface break. This surface break zone geomorphologically corresponds to the lower continental slope between the deep-sea terrace and the trench. Such a mode of permanent deformation seems to be consistent with a rising feature of the outer ridge of the deep-sea terrace and a depressional feature of the trench. This consistency implies a causal relationship between great earthquake activities and geomorphological features near the trench.

Description: A tsunami earthquake is defined as a shock which generates extensive tsunamis but relatively weak seismic waves. A comparative study is made for the two recent tsunami earthquakes, and a subduction mechanism near a deep-sea trench is discussed. These two earthquakes occurred at extremely shallow depths far off the coasts of the Kurile Islands and of eastern Hokkaido on October 20, 1963, and on June 10, 1975, respectively. Both can be regarded as an aftershock of the preceding larger events. Their tsunami heights and seismic wave amplitudes are compared with those of the preceding events. The results show that the time constants involved in the tsunami earthquakes are relatively long but not long enough to explain the observed disproportionality between the tsunamis and the seismic waves. The process times are estimated to be less than 100 s. The spatio-temporal characteristics of the two events suggest that they represent a seaward and upward extension of the rupture associated with a great earthquake which did not break the free surface at the coseismic stage. The amplitude and phase spectra of long-period surface waves and the long-period P waveforms indicate that this extension of the rupture did not take place entirely along the lithospheric interface emerging as a trench axis. It rather branched upward from the interface in a complex way through the wedge portion at the leading edge of the continental lithosphere. This wedge portion consists in large part of thick deformable sediments. A large vertical deformation and hence extensive tsunamis result from such a branching process. A shallowest source depth, steepening of rupture surfaces, and a deformable nature of the source region all enhance generation of tsunamis. The wedge portion ruptured by a tsunami earthquake is usually characterized by a very low seismic activity which is presumably due to ductility of the sediments. We suggest that this portion fractures in a brittle way to generate a tsunami earthquake when it is loaded suddenly by the occurrence of a great earthquake and that otherwise it yields slowly. Upward branching of the rupture from the lithospheric interface produces permanent deformation of the free surface which is relative uplift landward and relative subsidence trenchward of the zone of surface break. This surface break zone geomorphologically corresponds to the lower continental slope between the deep-sea terrace and the trench. Such a mode of permanent deformation seems to be consistent with a rising feature of the outer ridge of the deep-sea terrace and a depressional feature of the trench. This consistency implies a causal relationship between great earthquake activities and geomorphological features near the trench.

Description: Published geological and geophysical data are reviewed. The Walvis Ridge is a complex linear feature made up of three parts of unequal lengths and differing basement morphologies: an eastern sector composed of rugged, subparallel basement ridges; a low-lying central sector with subdued basement morphology; and a western sector consisting of seamounts and guyots (including Tristan da Cunha and Gough islands). Rock samples and geophysical data suggest that the Ridge is composed of alkali basalt which becomes progressively older eastwards. Gravity data indicate that at least parts of the ridge are in local isostatic equilibrium. A mantle plume mechanism of formation is rejected in favour of a centre of abnormally high volcanic activity on the spreading ridge axis. The location of this centre, whose relative movement has been southwards, is determined by fracture zones crossing the spreading ridge axis.

Description: Observations of the temporal and spatial distribution of N2O in solution are not yet sufficient to permit quantitative assessment of the role of the ocean in the budget of atmospheric N2O. Consideration of the global nitrogen cycle suggests that the land should be the primary source of N2O. The gas is removed in the atmosphere by photolysis and by reaction with O(1D), and there may be additional sinks in the ocean.

Description: One hundred and five new heat flow measurements in the Gulf of California support the premise that conductive heat loss is not the only mode by which heat is lost from a sea floor spreading center, even in an area with thick sediment cover. Theoretical estimates suggest that the average heat flow in the Guaymas and Farallon basins should be at least 11 μcal/cm2 s (HFU) (325 mW/m2). Outside a 30-km-wide zone centered on the central troughs, the heat flow values measured are reasonably uniform but average only 4.3±0.2 HFU (180±10 mW/m2). Although the high sedimentation rate may depress the measured heat flow, the effect probably does not exceed 15%. Some heat, particularly in the smaller basins, may be lost to the adjacent cooler continental blocks. The discrepancy between the measured and predicted heat losses, which is at least 30%, may be due to the discharge of thermal waters, through the thinner sediment cover in the central troughs or along active faults.

Description: The Cape Verde Islands are emerged portions of a Mesozoic-Cenozoic volcanic accretion in the form of a westward-opening horseshoe along fracture zones converging from the mid-Atlantic ridge toward Africa. An interior abyssal plain slopes westward, increasing in depth from 2.7 to 4.5 km. The plain is underlain by low relief on acoustic basement that is associated with a 300-gamma negative magnetic anomaly. The flanks of the Sal-Maio ridge appear bounded by large-displacement normal faults; superficial slumping is common. The trends of magnetic anomalies are linear N-S north of the islands and less linear within the islands and may change coincident with E-W bathymetric trends south of the islands. A triangular pattern of reversed refraction lines 200–250 km long along the north and east ridges and NW-SE across the interior abyssal plain indicated 2–3 km of semiconsolidated sediments underlain by 3–6 km of basalt and 6–8 km of plutonic rocks. The depth of the Moho is between 16 and 17 km. A deep NW-SE trending fault intersects the Sal-Maio ridge near Boa Vista. The consistent depth to Moho and the regional Bouguer anomaly indicate lack of local relief at the base of the crust. The crustal load of the entire archipelago is regionally adjusted.

Description: An intensive three-dimensional survey of the Antarctic Polar Front was made in the Drake Passage in March 1976. The front, which was imbedded within one of the high-velocity cores of the circumpolar current, is viewed as a water mass boundary demarking the northern extent of near-surface antarctic waters. Within the front, water masses are observed to intrude, one above the other, with characteristic vertical scales of 50–100 m. The intrusions are horizontally anisotropic, being elongated in the alongstream direction and constrained primarily to the upper 800 m of the front. The spatial and temporal persistence of the variability is examined through the analysis of continuous vertical profiles of horizontal velocity, temperature, salinity, and oxygen with discrete sampling of nutrients. Analysis of the velocity data showed the mean current flowing to the NNE with speeds of the order of 30–40 cm s−1 in the upper 600 m, with temporal variability over a 28-hour ‘yo-yo’ due primarily to internal gravity waves. The thermohaline variability was not internal wave induced but rather was associated with nearly isentropic advection of different water masses across the front. Cold fresh and warm salty intrusions did not conserve potential density, however, and double-diffusive transfers are strongly suggested as being crucial to an understanding of the dynamics of the intrusions. Applying a model (Joyce, 1977) for lateral mixing we estimate poleward temperature and salinity fluxes due to interleaving of 0.086°C cm s−1 and 0.069‰ cm s−1, respectively. If these values are typical, interleaving could play a significant role in large-scale balance of salt and, to a lesser extent, heat for the Southern Ocean.

Description: The structural evolution of the northwestern Iberian margin has been reconstructed from the results of IPOD drill site 398, as well as from numerous dredgings and a dense network of seismic profiles. During the Mesozoíc the margin first underwent two consecutive extensional phases interpreted as the result of two episodes of rifting in the Atlantic. Then during Eocene, subsidence was interrupted by compression and related deformation caused by subduction of oceanic sea floor of the Bay of Biscay beneath the Iberian Peninsula. Present day marginal banks are interpreted as blocks of the older passive margin uplifted during early Tertiary as a result of that subduction. Fault escarpments provide opportunities to sample older sediments and basement by dredging.

Description: A model for interstitial silica concentrations is derived, incorporating biological mixing of sediments. This model predicts concentrations and gradients and can account for the observed geographical variations in interstitial silica on the basis of a dynamic balance between solution of silica particles and diffusion from the sediments. The flux of particulate biogenous silica into the sediments is confirmed as an important parameter controlling interstitial silica concentrations. Biological mixing of sea floor sediments also has an important influence on interstitial composition by modifyirig the depth at which dissolving particles react. Faster mixing raises the interstitial concentration. The rate at which siliceous particles dissolve also plays a role; the slower they dissolve, the greater the interstitial silica concentration. Measurements on near‐bottom waters of the Atlantic show no consistent gradients in dissolved silica, but antarctic bottom water seems significantly more variable in the benthic boundary layer than in the water mass above or in the benthic zone of North Atlantic deep water.

Description: Biological mixing in deep‐sea sediments is described in terms of a time‐dependent eddy diffusion model where mixing takes place to a depth L at constant eddy diffusivity D. The differential equation that describes this model has been solved for an impulse source of tracer delivered to the plane surface that forms the top of the mixed layer. The solution then serves as a Green's function, which can be used to determine the distribution of tracer in depth and in time for a surface input of tracer specified as any arbitrary function of time. The characteristic properties of the solution are dependent on the dimensionless parameter D/Lυ, where υ is the sedimentation rate. If D/Lυ is greater than 10, the surface layer becomes homogeneous, and the model is identical to the homogeneous layer model proposed by Berger and Heath (1968). If D/Lυ is less than 0.1, little mixing can take place before the sediments are buried, and so the surface concentration propagates downward into the sediments with little dispersion. For all values of D/Lυ the weighted mean depth of the concentration distribution is the depth at which an impulse source would be found in the sediment if no mixing had taken place. The microtektite data of Glass (1969, 1972) and Glass et al. (1973) indicate that abyssal sediments are mixed from the surface to a maximum mixing depth that ranges between 17 and 40 cm below the surface. Mixing occurs at rates between 1 and 100 cm2 kyr−1. Higher mixing rates may occur nearer the surface, but microtektite distributions cannot be used to estimate these rates in the presence of the deeper, slower mixing. Estimates for D based on dimensional analysis of sediment reworking rates for nearshore organisms (103–106 cm2 kyr−1) are used to predict abyssal mixing rates between 1 and 103 cm2 kyr−1 by invoking the assumption that mixing is proportional to biomass. Plutonium distributions in deep‐sea sediments (Noshkin and Bowen, 1973) indicate abyssal mixing rates ranging from 100 to 400 cm2 kyr−1.

Description: Deep‐sea drilling in the Antarctic region (Deep‐Sea Drilling Project legs 28, 29, 35, and 36) has provided many new data about the development of circum‐Antarctic circulation and the closely related glacial evolution of Antarctica. The Antarctic continent has been in a high‐latitude position since the middle to late Mesozoic. Glaciation commenced much later, in the middle Tertiary, demonstrating that near‐polar position is not sufficient for glacial development. Instead, continental glaciation developed as the present‐day Southern Ocean circulation system became established when obstructing land masses moved aside. During the Paleocene (t = ∼65 to 55 m.y. ago), Australia and Antarctica were joined. In the early Eocene (t = ∼55 m.y. ago), Australia began to drift northward from Antarctica, forming an ocean, although circum‐Antarctic flow was blocked by the continental South Tasman Rise and Tasmania. During the Eocene (t = 55 to 38 m.y. ago) the Southern Ocean was relatively warm and the continent largely nonglaciated. Cool temperate vegetation existed in some regions. By the late Eocene (t = ∼39 m.y. ago) a shallow water connection had developed between the southern Indian and Pacific oceans over the South Tasman Rise. The first major climatic‐glacial threshold was crossed 38 m.y. ago near the Eocene‐Oligocene boundary, when substantial Antarctic sea ice began to form. This resulted in a rapid temperature drop in bottom waters of about 5°C and a major crisis in deep‐sea faunas. Thermohaline oceanic circulation was initiated at this time much like that of the present day. The resulting change in climatic regime increased bottom water activity over wide areas of the deep ocean basins, creating much sediment erosion, especially in western parts of oceans. A major (∼2000 m) and apparently rapid deepening also occurred in the calcium carbonate compensation depth (CCD). This climatic threshold was crossed as a result of the gradual isolation of Antarctica from Australia and perhaps the opening of the Drake Passage. During the Oligocene (t = 38 to 22 m.y. ago), widespread glaciation probably occurred throughout Antarctica, although no ice cap existed. By the middle to late Oligocene (t = ∼30 to 25 m.y. ago), deep‐seated circum‐Antarctic flow had developed south of the South Tasman Rise, as this had separated sufficiently from Victoria Land, Antarctica. Major reorganization resulted in southern hemisphere deep‐sea sediment distribution patterns. The next principal climatic threshold was crossed during the middle Miocene (t = 14 to 11 m.y. ago) when the Antarctic ice cap formed. This occurred at about the time of closure of the Australian‐Indonesian deep‐sea passage. During the early Miocene, calcareous biogenic sediments began to be displaced northward by siliceous biogenic sediments with higher rates of sedimentation reflecting the beginning of circulation related to the development of the Antarctic Convergence. Since the middle Miocene the East Antarctic ice cap has remained a semipermanent feature exhibiting some changes in volume. The most important of these occurred during the latest Miocene (t = ∼5 m.y. ago) when ice volumes increased beyond those of the present day. This event was related to global climatic cooling, a rapid northward movement of about 300 km of the Antarctic Convergence, and a eustatic sea level drop that may have been partly responsible for the isolation of the Mediterranean basin. Northern hemisphere ice sheet development began about 2.5–3 m.y. ago, representing the next major global climatic threshold, and was followed by the well‐known major oscillations in northern ice sheets. In the Southern Ocean the Quaternary marks a peak in activity of oceanic circulation as reflected by widespread deep‐sea erosion, very high biogenic productivity at the Antarctic Convergence and resulting high rates of biogenic sedimentation, and maximum northward distribution of ice‐rafted debris.

Description: Nitrogen fixers, or diazotrophs, play a key role in the carbon and nitrogen cycle of the world oceans, but the controlling mechanisms are not comprehensively understood yet. The present study compares two paradigms on the ecological niche of diazotrophs in an Earth System Model (ESM). In our standard model configuration, which is representative for most of the state-of-the-art pelagic ecosystem models, diazotrophs take advantage of zooplankton featuring a lower food preference for diazotrophs than for ordinary phytoplankton. We compare this paradigm with the idea that diazotrophs are more competitive under oligotrophic conditions, characterized by low (dissolved, particulate, organic and inorganic) phosphorous availability. Both paradigms are supported by observational evidence and lead to a similar good agreement to the most recent and advanced observation-based nitrogen fixation estimate in our ESM framework. Further, we illustrate that the similarity between the two paradigms breaks in a RCP 8.5 anthropogenic emission scenario. We conclude that a more advanced understanding of the ecological niche of diazotrophs is mandatory for assessing the cycling of essential nutrients, especially under changing environmental conditions. Our results call for more in-situ measurements of cyanobacteria biomass if major controls of nitrogen fixation in the oceans are to be dissected.

Description: The olivine melilitite diatemes of the Swabian Alb, frequently compared with kimberlite diatremes, are discussed in terms of hydrogeological setting, internal structure and juvenile fraction. The hydrogeological conditions of the Swabian Alb at the time of diatreme emplacement were characterized by copious amounts of groundwater within the sedimentary cover of the basement. Subsequently to the eruptions groundwater accumulated within the maars of the larger diatremes forming fresh‐water lakes as also happened nearby in the Steinheim and Ries impact craters. The diatremes reveal subsidence structures composed of large wall‐rock blocks, subaerially deposited pyroclastic beds, and well‐bedded reworked pyroclastic debris which accumulated on the floor of the fresh‐water crater lakes. The latter fact implies availability of groundwater at the time the diatremes formed. The juvenile fraction is developed in the shape of spherical to ovoid nucleated autoliths of ash to lapilli size that are macroscopically nearly devoid of vesicles. The autoliths are interpreted as the product of water vapor explosions which took place when rising olivine melilitite magma contacted groundwater and was fragmented into magma droplets. The droplets were rapidly chilled and thus preserved their shape. Because of the hydrogeological data, the diatreme structure, and the chilled nature of the autoliths a phreatomagmatic origin of the Swabian diatremes is suggested.

Description: It is generally assumed that seismic activity at volcanoes is closely connected to degassing processes. Intuitively, one would therefore expect a good correlation between degassing rates and seismic amplitude. However, both examples and counterexamples of such a correlation exist. In this study on Villarrica volcano (Chile), we pursued a different approach to relate gas flux and volcanic seismicity using 3 months of SO$_2$ flux rate measurements and 12 days of seismic recordings from early 2012.〈br /> We analyzed the statistical distributions of interevent times between transient seismic waveforms commonly associated with explosions and between peaks in the degassing time series.〈br /> Both event types showed a periodic recurrence with a mode of 20-25 s and around 1 h for transients and degassing, respectively. The normalized interevent times were fitted by almost identical log-normal distributions. Given the actually very different time scales, this similarity potentially indicates a scale-invariant phenomenon. We could reproduce these empirical findings by modelling the occurrence of transients as a renewal process from which the degassing events were derived recursively with increasing probability since the previous degassing event. In this model, the seismic transients could be either produced by degassing processes within the conduit or by gas release at the lava lake surface while the longer intervals of the degassing events may be explained by accumulation of gas either in the magma column or in the juvenile gas plume.〈br /> Additionally, we analyzed volcano-tectonic events, which behaved very differently from the transients. They showed the clustered occurrence of tectonic earthquakes.

Description: We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5‐based sea‐level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including: (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties; (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections; (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea‐level variability, different emissions scenarios and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea‐level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of variability for sea‐level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual‐to‐decadal predictions of local sea‐level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea‐level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlights the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large (〉 50%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post‐2100, we see a substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, timescale and emissions scenario.

Description: Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

Description: Ocean experts are engaged in a long-term effort to envision, develop, and implement best practices for meeting today’s needs while preserving ocean resources for future generations

Description: Remobilization of soil carbon as a result of permafrost degradation in the drainage basin of the major Siberian rivers combined with higher precipitation in a warming climate potentially increase the flux of terrestrial derived dissolved organic matter (tDOM) into the Arctic Ocean. The Laptev (LS) and East Siberian Seas (ESS) receive enormous amounts of tDOM-rich river water, which undergoes at least one freeze-melt cycle in the Siberian Arctic shelf seas. To better understand how freezing and melting affect the tDOM dynamics in the LS and ESS, we sampled sea ice, river and seawater for their dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration and the colored fraction of dissolved organic matter. The sampling took place in different seasons over a period of 9 years (2010–2019). Our results suggest that the main factor regulating the tDOM distribution in the LS and ESS is the mixing of marine waters with freshwater sources carrying different tDOM concentrations. Of particular importance in this context are the 211 km3 of meltwater from land-fast ice from the LS, containing ~ 0.3 Tg DOC, which in spring mixes with 245 km3 of river water from the peak spring discharge of the Lena River, carrying ~ 2.4 Tg DOC into the LS. During the ice-free season, tDOM transport on the shelves takes place in the surface mixed layer, with the direction of transport depending on the prevailing wind direction. In winter, about 1.2 Tg of brine-related DOC, which was expelled from the growing land-fast ice in the LS, is transported in the near-surface water layer into the Transpolar Drift Stream that flows from the Siberian Shelf toward Greenland. The actual water depth in which the tDOM-rich brines are transported, depends mainly on the density stratification of the LS and ESS in the preceding summer and the amount of ice produced in winter. We suspect that climate change in the Arctic will fundamentally alter the dynamics of tDOM transport in the Arctic marginal seas, which will also have consequences for the Arctic carbon cycle.

Description: The Cape Verde archipelago is a group of Ocean Islands in the Central Atlantic that forms two chains of islands trending Northwest and Southwest. Several of the islands are considered to be volcanically active, with frequent eruptions on Fogo. We examine the mineral chemistry and thermobarometry of the southern islands; Santiago, Fogo and Brava together with the Cadamosto Seamount. Our objective is to explore the magmatic storage system and implications for volcanic eruptions and associated hazards at Cape Verde. The volcanic rocks at Cape Verde are alkaline and dominantly mafic, whereas the island of Brava and the Cadamosto Seamount are unusually felsic. Clinopyroxene compositions range from 60 to 90 Mg# at Santiago and Fogo. In contrast, at Brava and the Cadamosto Seamount the clinopyroxene compositions are 5 to 75 Mg#. Mineral chemistry and zonation records fractional crystallization, recharge, aggregation of crystals, magma mixing and variations in thermal conditions of the magma at temperatures from 925 to 1250C. Magma storage depths at Santiago, Fogo, Brava and the Cadamosto Seamount are between 12 and 40 km, forming deep sub-Moho magma storage zones. Transient magma storage in the crust is suggested by fluid inclusion re-equilibration and pre-eruption seismicity. A global compilation of magma storage at Ocean Islands suggests deep magma storage is a common feature and volcanic eruptions are often associated with rapid magma ascent through the crust. Shallow magma storage is more variable and likely reflects local variations in crustal structure, sediment supply and tectonics. Petrological constraints on the magma plumbing system at Cape Verde and elsewhere are vital to integrate with deformation models and seismicity in order to improve understanding and mitigation of the volcanic hazards.

Description: The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~ 21,000 years ago) has been a major focus for evaluating how well state-of-the-art climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future using paleoclimate reconstructions. A new generation of climate models have been used to generate LGM simulations as part of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Here we provide a preliminary analysis and evaluation of the results of these LGM experiments (PMIP4-CMIP6) and compare them with the previous generation of simulations (PMIP3-CMIP5). We show that the PMIP4-CMIP6 are globally less cold and less dry than the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations, most probably because of the use of a more realistic specification of the northern hemisphere ice sheets in the latest simulations although changes in model configuration may also contribute to this. There are important differences in both atmospheric and ocean circulation between the two sets of experiments, with the northern and southern jet streams being more poleward and the changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation being less pronounced in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations than in the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations. Changes in simulated precipitation patterns are influenced by both temperature and circulation changes. Differences in simulated climate between individual models remain large so, although there are differences in the average behaviour across the two ensembles, the new simulation results are not fundamentally different from the PMIP3-CMIP5 results. Evaluation of large-scale climate features, such as land-sea contrast and polar amplification, confirms that the models capture these well and within the uncertainty of the palaeoclimate reconstructions. Nevertheless, regional climate changes are less well simulated: the models underestimate extratropical cooling, particularly in winter, and precipitation changes. The spatial patterns of increased precipitation associated with changes in the jet streams are also poorly captured. However, changes in the tropics are more realistic, particularly the changes in tropical temperatures over the oceans. Although these results are preliminary in nature, because of the limited number of LGM simulations currently available, they nevertheless point to the utility of using paleoclimate simulations to understand the mechanisms of climate change and evaluate model performance.

Description: Keypoints This contribution is a reply on a comment submitted by A. Argnani. The alternate interpretation of the wide-angle seismic model is discussed. The Alfeo Fault system is proposed to be the current location of STEP fault. Abstract Andrea Argnani in his comment on Dellong et al., 2020 (Geometry of the deep Calabrian subduction (Central Mediterranean Sea) from wide‐angle seismic data and 3D gravity modeling), proposes an alternate interpretation of the wide-angle seismic velocity models presented by Dellong et al., 2018 and Dellong et al., 2020 and proposes a correction of the literature citations in these paper. In this reply, we discuss in detail all points raised by Andrea Argnani.

Description: This paper presents a novel data set of regional climate model simulations over Europe that significantly improves our ability to detect changes in weather extremes under low and moderate levels of global warming. The data set provides a unique and physically consistent data set, as it is derived from a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations. These simulations were driven by two global climate models from the international HAPPI consortium. The set consists of 100 × 10-year simulations and 25 × 10-year simulations, respectively. These large ensembles allow for regional climate change and weather extremes to be investigated with an improved signal-to-noise ratio compared to previous climate simulations. The changes in four climate indices for temperature targets of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming are quantified: number of days per year with daily mean near-surface apparent temperature of 〉 28 °C (ATG28); the yearly maximum 5-day sum of precipitation (RX5day); the daily precipitation intensity of the 50-yr return period (RI50yr); and the annual Consecutive Dry Days (CDD). This work shows that even for a small signal in projected global mean temperature, changes of extreme temperature and precipitation indices can be robustly estimated. For temperature related indices changes in percentiles can also be estimated with high confidence. Such data can form the basis for tailor-made climate information that can aid adaptive measures at a policy-relevant scales, indicating potential impacts at low levels of global warming at steps of 0.5 °C.

Description: The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss has been accelerating at a rate of about 20 ± 10 Gt/yr2 since the end of the 1990's, with around 60 % of this mass loss directly attributed to enhanced surface meltwater runoff. However, in the climate and glaciology communities, different approaches exist on how to model the different surface mass balance (SMB) components using: (1) complex physically-based climate models which are computationally expensive; (2) intermediate complexity energy balance models; (3) simple and fast positive degree day models which base their inferences on statistical principles and are computationally highly efficient. Additionally, many of these models compute the SMB components based on different spatial and temporal resolutions, with different forcing fields as well as different ice sheet topographies and extents, making inter-comparison difficult. In the GrIS SMB model intercomparison project (GrSMBMIP) we address these issues by forcing each model with the same data (i.e., the ERA-Interim reanalysis) except for two global models for which this forcing is limited to the oceanic conditions, and at the same time by interpolating all modelled results onto a common ice sheet mask at 1 km horizontal resolution for the common period 1980–2012. The SMB outputs from 13 models are then compared over the GrIS to (1) SMB estimates using a combination of gravimetric remote sensing data from GRACE and measured ice discharge, (2) ice cores, snow pits, in-situ SMB observations, and (3) remotely sensed bare ice extent from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Our results reveal that the mean GrIS SMB of all 13 models has been positive between 1980 and 2012 with an average of 340 ± Gt/yr, but has decreased at an average rate of −7.3 Gt/yr2 (with a significance of 96 %), mainly driven by an increase of 8.0 Gt/yr2 (with a significance of 98 %) in meltwater runoff. Spatially, the largest spread among models can be found around the margins of the ice sheet, highlighting the need for accurate representation of the GrIS ablation zone extent and processes driving the surface melt. In addition, a higher density of in-situ SMB observations is required, especially in the south-east accumulation zone, where the model spread can reach 2 mWE/yr due to large discrepancies in modelled snowfall accumulation. Overall, polar regional climate models (RCMs) perform the best compared to observations, in particular for simulating precipitation patterns. However, other simpler and faster models have biases of same order than RCMs with observations and remain then useful tools for long-term simulations. Finally, it is interesting to note that the ensemble mean of the 13 models produces the best estimate of the present day SMB relative to observations, suggesting that biases are not systematic among models.

Description: It is virtually certain that the mean surface temperature of the Earth will continue to increase under realistic emission scenarios, yet comparatively little is known about future changes in climate variability. This study explores changes in climate variability over the large range of climates simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6) and the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3), including time slices of the Last Glacial Maximum, the mid-Holocene, and idealized experiments (1 % CO2 and abrupt4×CO2). These states encompass climates within a range of 12 ∘C in global mean temperature change. We examine climate variability from the perspectives of local interannual change, coherent climate modes, and through compositing extremes. The change in the interannual variability of precipitation is strongly dependent upon the local change in the total amount of precipitation. At the global scale, temperature variability is inversely related to mean temperature change on intra-seasonal to multidecadal timescales. This decrease is stronger over the oceans, while there is increased temperature variability over subtropical land areas (40∘ S–40∘ N) in warmer simulations. We systematically investigate changes in the standard deviation of modes of climate variability, including the North Atlantic Oscillation, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and the Southern Annular Mode, with global mean temperature change. While several climate modes do show consistent relationships (most notably the Atlantic Zonal Mode), no generalizable pattern emerges. By compositing extreme precipitation years across the ensemble, we demonstrate that the same large-scale modes influencing rainfall variability in Mediterranean climates persist throughout paleoclimate and future simulations. The robust nature of the response of climate variability, between cold and warm climates as well as across multiple timescales, suggests that observations and proxy reconstructions could provide a meaningful constraint on climate variability in future projections.

Description: Seamounts are ubiquitous on the oceanic plate; those situated near convergent margins will eventually undergo subduction. Using six prestack depth migrated MCS profiles transecting the Aleutian Trench, we investigate deeply buried seamounts offshore Kodiak Island, within 145–155°W and 55–58°N. A distinct sedimentary horizon exists in all six seismic profiles, at or above the average height of seamounts, which appears to be the preferred structural detachment zone. Where drilled, this horizon contains gravel‐sized debris interpreted to be ice rafted and marks the onset of intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation at ~2.7 Ma. Beneath this horizon, sediments prior to the Surveyor Fan development were deposited, all or the majority of these sediments will eventually be subducted. Despite the subducted seamounts being deeply buried, these features cause enhanced surface slope of the accretionary prism. Our observations lead us to propose a model for the stages of subduction for deeply buried seamounts. These stages include the following: (1) Prior to subduction, the protothrust zone undergoes enhanced shortening, (2) frontal thrust steepening and enhanced backthrusting occurs during subduction with a potential décollement step down seaward and a steeping outward of the deformation front to the limit of the protothrust zone, and (3) further subduction results in a pattern of uplift farther into the wedge resulting in enhanced out‐of‐sequence thrusting and persistence of the more seaward deformation front position. This pattern is distinct from the dominance of embayments and effective removal of prism material during seamount subduction described along margins with less deeply buried edifices.

Description: European heat waves have increased during the two recent decades. Particularly 2015 and 2018 were characterized by a widespread area of cold North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in early summer as well as positive surface temperature anomalies across large parts of the European continent during later summer. The European heat wave of 2018 is further suggested to be induced by a quasi-stationary and high-amplified Rossby wave pattern associated with the so-called quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) mechanism. In this study, we evaluate the North Atlantic SST anomalies and the QRA theory as potential drivers for European heat waves for the first time in combination by using the ERA-5 reanalysis product. A composite and correlation study reveals that cold North Atlantic SST anomalies in early summer favour a more undulating jet stream and a preferred trough-ridge pattern in the North Atlantic–European sector. Further we found that cold North Atlantic SSTs promote a stronger double jet occurrence in this sector. Thus, favorite conditions for a QRA signature are evident together with a necessary preconditioning of a double jet. However, our wave analysis covering two-dimensional probability density distributions of phase speed and amplitude does not confirm a relationship between cold North Atlantic SSTs and the QRA theory, compositing cold SSTs, high double jet indices (DJIs) or both together. Instead, we can show that cold North Atlantic SST events enhance the dominance of transient waves. In the presence of a trough during cold North Atlantic events, we obtain a slow-down of the transient waves, but not necessarily an amplification or stationarity. The deceleration of the transient waves result in a longer duration of a trough over the North Atlantic accompanied by a ridge downstream over Europe, triggering European heat episodes. Although a given DJI preconditioning may also be subject to the onset of certain QRA events, our study found no general relation between cold North Atlantic SST events and the QRA diagnostics. Our study highlights the relevance of cold North Atlantic SSTs for the onset of high European temperatures by affecting travelling jet stream undulations (but without involving QRA in general). Further attention should be drawn not only to the influence of North Atlantic SST year-to-year variability, but also to the effect of the North Atlantic warming hole as a negative SST anomaly in the long term, which is projected to evolve through climate change.

Description: The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise that arises from large uncertainty in the oceanic forcing and the associated ice shelf melting. Ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean. However, by computing only the sea level contribution in response to ice shelf melting, our study is neglecting a number of processes such as surface-mass-balance-related contributions. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any self-dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations in which an instability is dominating the ice loss. The results obtained here are thus relevant, in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong ocean warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014) but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming), and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ice sheet models to obtain the ice flow response to the individual global warming path. The model median for the observational period from 1992 to 2017 of the ice loss due to basal ice shelf melting is 10.2 mm, with a likely range between 5.2 and 21.3 mm. For the same period the Antarctic ice sheet lost mass equivalent to 7.4 mm of global sea level rise, with a standard deviation of 3.7 mm (Shepherd et al., 2018) including all processes, especially surface-mass-balance changes. For the unabated warming path, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), we obtain a median contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global mean sea level rise from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century of 17 cm, with a likely range (66th percentile around the mean) between 9 and 36 cm and a very likely range (90th percentile around the mean) between 6 and 58 cm. For the RCP2.6 warming path, which will keep the global mean temperature below 2 ∘C of global warming and is thus consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement, the procedure yields a median of 13 cm of global mean sea level contribution. The likely range for the RCP2.6 scenario is between 7 and 24 cm, and the very likely range is between 4 and 37 cm. The structural uncertainties in the method do not allow for an interpretation of any higher uncertainty percentiles. We provide projections for the five Antarctic regions and for each model and each scenario separately. The rate of sea level contribution is highest under the RCP8.5 scenario. The maximum within the 21st century of the median value is 4 cm per decade, with a likely range between 2 and 9 cm per decade and a very likely range between 1 and 14 cm per decade.

Description: The olivine melilitite diatemes of the Swabian Alb, frequently compared with kimberlite diatremes, are discussed in terms of hydrogeological setting, internal structure and juvenile fraction. The hydrogeological conditions of the Swabian Alb at the time of diatreme emplacement were characterized by copious amounts of groundwater within the sedimentary cover of the basement. Subsequently to the eruptions groundwater accumulated within the maars of the larger diatremes forming fresh‐water lakes as also happened nearby in the Steinheim and Ries impact craters. The diatremes reveal subsidence structures composed of large wall‐rock blocks, subaerially deposited pyroclastic beds, and well‐bedded reworked pyroclastic debris which accumulated on the floor of the fresh‐water crater lakes. The latter fact implies availability of groundwater at the time the diatremes formed. The juvenile fraction is developed in the shape of spherical to ovoid nucleated autoliths of ash to lapilli size that are macroscopically nearly devoid of vesicles. The autoliths are interpreted as the product of water vapor explosions which took place when rising olivine melilitite magma contacted groundwater and was fragmented into magma droplets. The droplets were rapidly chilled and thus preserved their shape. Because of the hydrogeological data, the diatreme structure, and the chilled nature of the autoliths a phreatomagmatic origin of the Swabian diatremes is suggested.

Description: A coordinated regional climate model (RCM) evaluation and intercomparison project based on observations from a July–October 2014 trans‐Arctic Ocean field experiment (ACSE‐Arctic Clouds during Summer Experiment) is presented. Six state‐of‐the‐art RCMs were constrained with common reanalysis lateral boundary forcing and upper troposphere nudging techniques to explore how the RCMs represented the evolution of the surface energy budget (SEB) components and their relation to cloud properties. We find that the main reasons for the modeled differences in the SEB components are a direct consequence of the RCM treatment of cloud and cloud‐radiative interactions. The RCMs could be separated into groups by their overestimation or underestimation of cloud liquid. While radiative and turbulent heat flux errors were relatively large, they often invoke compensating errors. In addition, having the surface sea‐ice concentrations constrained by the reanalysis or satellite observations limited how errors in the modeled radiative fluxes could affect the SEB and ultimately the surface evolution and its coupling with lower tropospheric mixing and cloud properties. Many of these results are consistent with RCM biases reported in studies over a decade ago. One of the six models was a fully coupled ocean‐ice‐atmosphere model. Despite the biases in overestimating cloud liquid, and associated SEB errors due to too optically thick clouds, its simulations were useful in understanding how the fully coupled system is forced by, and responds to, the SEB evolution. Moving forward, we suggest that development of RCM studies need to consider the fully coupled climate system.

Description: Quantitative precipitation estimation with commercial microwave links (CMLs) is a technique developed to supplement weather radar and rain gauge observations. It is exploiting the relation between the attenuation of CML signal levels and the integrated rain rate along a CML path. The opportunistic nature of this method requires a sophisticated data processing using robust methods. In this study we focus on the processing step of rain event detection in the signal level time series of the CMLs, which we treat as a binary classification problem. This processing step is particularly challenging, because even when there is no rain, the signal level can show large fluctuations similar to that during rainy periods. False classifications can have a high impact on falsely estimated rainfall amounts. We analyze the performance of a convolutional neural network (CNN), which is trained to detect rainfall-specific attenuation patterns in CML signal levels, using data from 3904 CMLs in Germany. The CNN consists of a feature extraction and a classification part with, in total, 20 layers of neurons and 1.4×105 trainable parameters. With a structure inspired by the visual cortex of mammals, CNNs use local connections of neurons to recognize patterns independent of their location in the time series. We test the CNN's ability to recognize attenuation patterns from CMLs and time periods outside the training data. Our CNN is trained on 4 months of data from 800 randomly selected CMLs and validated on 2 different months of data, once for all CMLs and once for the 3104 CMLs not included in the training. No CMLs are excluded from the analysis. As a reference data set, we use the gauge-adjusted radar product RADOLAN-RW provided by the German meteorological service (DWD). The model predictions and the reference data are compared on an hourly basis. Model performance is compared to a state-of-the-art reference method, which uses the rolling standard deviation of the CML signal level time series as a detection criteria. Our results show that within the analyzed period of April to September 2018, the CNN generalizes well to the validation CMLs and time periods. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis shows that the CNN is outperforming the reference method, detecting on average 76 % of all rainy and 97 % of all nonrainy periods. From all periods with a reference rain rate larger than 0.6 mm h−1, more than 90 % was detected. We also show that the improved event detection leads to a significant reduction of falsely estimated rainfall by up to 51 %. At the same time, the quality of the correctly estimated rainfall is kept at the same level in regards to the Pearson correlation with the radar rainfall. In conclusion, we find that CNNs are a robust and promising tool to detect rainfall-induced attenuation patterns in CML signal levels from a large CML data set covering all of Germany.

Description: Rainfall is one of the most important environmental variables. However, it is a challenge to measure it accurately over space and time. During the last decade, commercial microwave links (CMLs), operated by mobile network providers, have proven to be an additional source of rainfall information to complement traditional rainfall measurements. In this study, we present the processing and evaluation of a German-wide data set of CMLs. This data set was acquired from around 4000 CMLs distributed across Germany with a temporal resolution of 1 min. The analysis period of 1 year spans from September 2017 to August 2018. We compare and adjust existing processing schemes on this large CML data set. For the crucial step of detecting rain events in the raw attenuation time series, we are able to reduce the amount of misclassification. This was achieved by using a new approach to determine the threshold, which separates a rolling window standard deviation of the CMLs' signal into wet and dry periods. For the compensation for wet antenna attenuation, we compare a time-dependent model with a rain-rate-dependent model and show that the rain-rate-dependent model performs better for our data set. We use RADOLAN-RW, a gridded gauge-adjusted hourly radar product from the German Meteorological Service (DWD) as a precipitation reference, from which we derive the path-averaged rain rates along each CML path. Our data processing is able to handle CML data across different landscapes and seasons very well. For hourly, monthly, and seasonal rainfall sums, we found good agreement between CML-derived rainfall and the reference, except for the winter season due to non-liquid precipitation. We discuss performance measures for different subset criteria, and we show that CML-derived rainfall maps are comparable to the reference. This analysis shows that opportunistic sensing with CMLs yields rainfall information with good agreement with gauge-adjusted radar data during periods without non-liquid precipitation.

Description: Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet constitutes the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. Ocean-driven melting underneath the floating ice shelves and subsequent acceleration of the inland ice streams are the major reasons for currently observed mass loss from Antarctica and are expected to become more important in the future. Here we show that for projections of future mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, it is essential (1) to better constrain the sensitivity of sub-shelf melt rates to ocean warming and (2) to include the historic trajectory of the ice sheet. In particular, we find that while the ice sheet response in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model is comparable to the median response of models in three Antarctic Ice Sheet Intercomparison projects – initMIP, LARMIP-2 and ISMIP6 – conducted with a range of ice sheet models, the projected 21st century sea level contribution differs significantly depending on these two factors. For the highest emission scenario RCP8.5, this leads to projected ice loss ranging from 1.4 to 4.0 cm of sea level equivalent in simulations in which ISMIP6 ocean forcing drives the PICO ocean box model where parameter tuning leads to a comparably low sub-shelf melt sensitivity and in which no surface forcing is applied. This is opposed to a likely range of 9.1 to 35.8 cm using the exact same initial setup, but emulated from the LARMIP-2 experiments with a higher melt sensitivity, even though both projects use forcing from climate models and melt rates are calibrated with previous oceanographic studies. Furthermore, using two initial states, one with a previous historic simulation from 1850 to 2014 and one starting from a steady state, we show that while differences between the ice sheet configurations in 2015 seem marginal at first sight, the historic simulation increases the susceptibility of the ice sheet to ocean warming, thereby increasing mass loss from 2015 to 2100 by 5 % to 50 %. Hindcasting past ice sheet changes with numerical models would thus provide valuable tools to better constrain projections. Our results emphasize that the uncertainty that arises from the forcing is of the same order of magnitude as the ice dynamic response for future sea level projections.

Description: We describe and test a new model of biological marine silicate cycling, implemented in the Kiel Marine Biogeochemical Model version 3 (KMBM3), embedded in the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) version 2.9. This new model adds diatoms, which are a key component of the biological carbon pump, to an existing ecosystem model. This new model combines previously published parameterizations of a diatom functional type, opal production and export with a novel, temperature-dependent dissolution scheme. Modelled steady-state biogeochemical rates, carbon and nutrient distributions are similar to those found in previous model versions. The new model performs well against independent ocean biogeochemical indicators and captures the large-scale features of the marine silica cycle to a degree comparable to similar Earth system models. Furthermore, it is computationally efficient, allowing both fully coupled, long-timescale transient simulations and “offline” transport matrix spinups. We assess the fully coupled model against modern ocean observations, the historical record starting from 1960 and a business-as-usual atmospheric CO2 forcing to the year 2300. The model simulates a global decline in net primary production (NPP) of 1.4 % having occurred since the 1960s, with the strongest declines in the tropics, northern midlatitudes and Southern Ocean. The simulated global decline in NPP reverses after the year 2100 (forced by the extended RCP8.5 CO2 concentration scenario), and NPP returns to 98 % of the pre-industrial rate by 2300. This recovery is dominated by increasing primary production in the Southern Ocean, mostly by calcifying phytoplankton. Large increases in calcifying phytoplankton in the Southern Ocean offset a decline in the low latitudes, producing a global net calcite export in 2300 that varies only slightly from pre-industrial rates. Diatom distribution moves southward in our simulations, following the receding Antarctic ice front, but diatoms are outcompeted by calcifiers across most of their pre-industrial Southern Ocean habitat. Global opal export production thus drops to 75 % of its pre-industrial value by 2300. Model nutrients such as phosphate, silicate and nitrate build up along the Southern Ocean particle export pathway, but dissolved iron (for which ocean sources are held constant) increases in the upper ocean. This different behaviour of iron is attributed to a reduction of low-latitude NPP (and consequently, a reduction in both uptake and export and particle, including calcite scavenging), an increase in seawater temperatures (raising the solubility of particulate iron) and stratification that “traps” the iron near the surface. These results are meant to serve as a baseline for sensitivity assessments to be undertaken with this model in the future.