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  • Articles  (11)
  • Earthquake prediction  (11)
  • 2020-2022
  • 1980-1984  (11)
  • Geosciences  (11)
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  • Articles  (11)
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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Some experience in unraveling geochemical earthquake precursors (1984)
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 122 (1984), S. 157-163 
    Details
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; Hydrogeochemical ; Statistical technique ; Mathematical model
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The discrimination of significant earthquake precursors from background noise is treated as a multistep problem of pattern recognition. Statistical characteristics of helium-content recorded in short time intervals are used as informative parameters. The set of calculated characteristics includes estimations of the mean, the variance, and the results of spectral analysis of the investigated time series. The selection of significant parameters and the rigorous estimations of time shifts between geochemical and seismic series are carried out by analyzing their cross-covariance function. It is established that the most informative characteristics of a hydrothermal system are related to the dynamic fluctuations of the geochemical parameters. The final phase of prediction is based on the application of a method of statistical discovery of images. A method of earthquake-time prediction is suggested. By using this method, we may determine the 10-day interval during which an earthquake may occur two months in advance. The prediction may be improved by increasing the frequency of sampling and by improving the precision of analytical measurements, both of which can be achieved by automation of monitoring devices. Deployment of uniform monitoring networks is needed in regions designated for special prediction tasks.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00874589
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Prediction of central California earthquakes from soil-gas helium fluctuations (1984)
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 122 (1984), S. 369-375 
    Details
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Helium ; Earthquake prediction ; Soil gas
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The observations of short-term decreases in helium soil-gas concentrations along the San Andreas Fault in central California have been correlated with subsequent earthquake activity. The area of study is elliptical in shape with radii approximately 160×80 km, centered near San Benito, and with the major axis parallel to the Fault. For 83 percent of theM〉4 earthquakes in this area a helium decrease preceded seismic activity by 1.5 to 6.5 weeks. There were several earthquakes without a decrease and several decreases without a corresponding earthquake. Owing to complex and unresolved interaction of many geophysical and geochemical parameters, no suitable model is yet developed to explain the observations.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00874605
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Hydrologic and geochemical properties of the San Andreas fault at the Stone Canyon well (1984)
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 122 (1984), S. 403-424 
    Details
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; Fractured rock ; Granite ; Scientific drilling ; Water-rock interaction
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The Stone Canyon well penetrates 600 m of highly fractured and severely altered quartz diorite intimately associated with the creeping segment of the San Andreas fault of central California. Geophysical logs reveal a complex hydrology dominated by major fractures. Fluid pressure in some fractures is sufficient to prevent invasion of the formation by heavy drilling mud, implying pore pressures at least 10% higher than hydrostatic ones. At least three chemically distinct waters are encountered, including a chloride brine clearly segregated from the shallow, potable groundwater. Chemical alteration of the quartz diorite persists throughout the well, far below the depth where the water-rock reactions responsible for the ubiquitous chlorite and mixed-layer clays can be considered weathering. Whole-rock δ18O analyses indicate significant interaction of the rocks with a low δ18O fluid within some of the fractured and altered zones, whereas a deeper sample shows18O enrichment. High pore pressures encountered in Stone Canyon may be due to tectonic compression. Measurements of temporal variations in the pore pressure at the well may provide a means of predicting earthquakes along this segment of the San Andreas fault.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00874608
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Separation of volatile components from rocks under mechanical loading as the source of hydrogeochemical anomalies preceding earthquakes (1984)
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 122 (1984), S. 463-477 
    Details
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Hydrogeochemical anomalies ; Earthquake prediction ; Volatile ; Rocks
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract One of the most important problems for the theory and practice of earthquake prediction is that of the source of substances in the formation of precursory hydrogeochemical anomalies. Volatile components that are separated from rocks at mechanical loading present one of the sources. A large-scale model experiment is conducte with a 50 000-ton press; the results reveal the regularities of water, radon, mercury, and helium separation from large basalt and granite samples that are subjected to a cyclically increasing, uniaxial pressure to fracture (at 75 and 180 MPa for basalt and granite, respectively). Premonitory rock fracture is found to be accompanied by the separation of volatile components from rocks. Predictive properties of the components are associated with their chemical nature and the forms in which they exist in rocks. Water release during mechanical loading increases gradually with the increase in loading. Helium separation begins at the early stages of the cracking process. Comparison of the data on degassing with data on bulk strain and acoustic emission shows that the major part of radon is released at the stage of avalanche-type crack interaction and at the dynamic stage of the formation of an earthquake source, whereas mercury degasses mainly at the dynamic stage immediately before fracture of the sample.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00874612
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Relation between hydrogen emission and seismic activities (1984)
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 122 (1984), S. 175-184 
    Details
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Hydrogen emission ; Seismic activity ; Earthquake prediction
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Measurements of chemical composition of bubbles from a mineral spring at Yuya Spa situated close to the Median Tectonic Line, the longest active fault in Japan, showed that the periods of increased H2 emission coincided with occurrences of the Ohno earthquake swarm nearby. Four cases of the coincidence without exception were observed in the last three years. The fluctuation of H2 concentration ranges between 〈0.5 and 200 ppm, whereas other gases such as He, Ar, N2, and CH4 do not fluctuate much. The H2 concentration is correlated with the energy released by the seismic activity. This field evidence, together with the results of laboratory experiments conducted bySugisaki et al. (1983), leads to the conclusion that H2 observed at the mineral spring was produced by the reaction between groundwater and rock fractured in the seismic activities. The observation that H2 in the mineral spring tends to appear prior to an earthquake suggests that microcracks may occur in rocks prior to earthquakes. The precursory emission of H2 may be useful for earthquake prediction.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00874591
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Precise temperature measurement of groundwater for earthquake-prediction study (1984)
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 122 (1984), S. 164-174 
    Details
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Groundwater temperature ; Earthquake prediction
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Precise measurements of groundwater temperature, with a resolution of 0.0001°C, have been made for the purpose of earthquake prediction at four water wells in the Tokai district in Japan. The characteristics of temporal variations in groundwater temperature differ from well to well. From records of a well located in an area where use of groundwater is heavy, movement of groundwater was sensed by temperature variations. By contrast, water temperatures in a 500 m well far from cultural areas were extremely steady, with fluctuations of less than 0.0005°C. This well appears to be suitable for monitoring possible temperature changes related to the occurrence of an impending large earthquake.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00874590
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Impulsive radon emanation on a creeping segment of the San Andreas fault, California (1984)
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 122 (1984), S. 340-352 
    Details
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; Radon emanation ; Fault creep
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Radon emanation was continuously monitored for several months at two locations along a creeping segment of the San Andreas fault in central California. The recorded emanations showed several impulsive increases that lasted as much as five hours with amplitudes considerably larger than meteorologically induced diurnal variations. Some of the radon increases were accompanied or followed by earthquakes or fault-creep events. They were possibly the result of some sudden outbursts of relatively radon-rich ground gas, sometimes triggered by crustal deformation or vibration.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00874603
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Instability model for recurring large and great earthquakes in southern California (1984)
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 122 (1984), S. 793-811 
    Details
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; Instability ; San Andreas fault
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The locked section of the San Andreas fault in southern California has experienced a number of large and great earthquakes in the past, and thus is expected to have more in the future. To estimate the location, time, and slip of the next few earthquakes, an earthquake instability model is formulated. The model is similar to one recently developed for moderate earthquakes on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. In both models, unstable faulting (the earthquake analog) is caused by failure of all or part of a patch of brittle, strain-softening fault zone. In the present model the patch extends downward from the ground surface to about 12 km depth, and extends 500 km along strike from Parkfield to the Salton Sea. The variation of patch strength along strike is adjusted by trial until the computed sequence of instabilities matches the sequence of large and great earthquakes sincea.d. 1080 reported by Sieh and others. The last earthquake was theM=8.3 Ft. Tejon event in 1857. The resulting strength variation has five contiguous sections of alternately low and high strength. From north to south, the approximate locations of the sections are: (1) Parkfield to Bitterwater Valley, (2) Bitterwater Valley to Lake Hughes, (3) Lake Hughes to San Bernardino, (4) San Bernardino to Palm Springs, and (5) Palm Springs to the Salton Sea. Sections 1, 3, and 5 have strengths between 53 and 88 bars; sections 2 and 4 have strengths between 164 and 193 bars. Patch section ends and unstable rupture ends usually coincide, although one or more adjacent patch sections may fail unstably at once. The model predicts that the next sections of the fault to slip unstably will be 1, 3, and 5; the order and dates depend on the assumed length of an earthquake rupture in about 1700.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00876385
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Recent results of hydrogeochemical studies for earthquake prediction in the USSR (1984)
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 122 (1984), S. 143-156 
    Details
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; Hydrogeochemical ; Hydrogeodynamic
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The paper reviews the chief results of the hydrogeochemical and hydrogeodynamic investigations conducted for earthquake prediction in all seismic regions of the USSR. An extensive amount of data on the variations of approximately 40 hydrogeochemical and hydrogeodynamic parameters were collected with a broad network of 83 stations. These data are analysed in connection with regional seismic activities. The hydrogeochemical precursors are classified on the basis of statistical treatment of the regular observations. Several features of the hydrogeochemical anomalies that depend on the physicochemical nature of the precursor, geological conditions in a given region, and features of the expected seismic event are pointed out. Some sophisticated statistical methods of data analysis and several examples of actual earthquake predictions based on hydrogeochemical methods are given. Hydrogeochemical and hydrogeodynamic precursors are found to be highly effective for shortterm predictions. Possible mechanisms that may cause hydrogeochemical precursors are discussed. Sophisticated automatic equipment developed in the Soviet Union for hydrogeochemical and hydrogeodynamic observations are briefly mentioned.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00874588
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    In-situ fluid-pressure measurements for earthquake prediction: An example from a deep well at Hi Vista, California (1984)
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 122 (1984), S. 255-279 
    Details
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; Water level ; Earth tides ; Fluid pressure
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Short-term earthquake prediction requires sensitive instruments for measuring the small anomalous changes in stress and strain that precede earthquakes. Instruments installed at or near the surface have proven too noisy for measuring anomalies of the size expected to occur, and it is now recognized that even to have the possibility of a reliable earthquake-prediction system will require instruments installed in drill holes at depths sufficient to reduce the background noise to a level below that of the expected premonitory signals. We are conducting experiments to determine the maximum signal-to-noise improvement that can be obtained in drill holes. In a 592 m well in the Mojave Desert near Hi Vista, California, we measured water-level changes with amplitudes greater than 10 cm, induced by earth tides. By removing the effects of barometric pressure and the stress related to earth tides, we have achieved a sensitivity to volumetric strain rates of 10−9 to 10−10 per day. Further improvement may be possible, and it appears that a successful earthquake-prediction capability may be achieved with an array of instruments installed in drill holes at depths of about 1 km, assuming that the premonitory strain signals are, in fact, present.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00874598
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