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  • Copernicus  (77,838)
  • ASLO (Association for the Sciences of Limnology and Oceanography)
  • American Meteorological Society
  • 2020-2022  (9,235)
  • 2015-2019  (81,700)
  • 1995-1999  (8,514)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2020-11-18
    Description: A realistic representation of the North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks is crucial as it allows, for example, explaining potential changes in U.S. landfalling systems. Here, the authors present a tentative study that examines the ability of recent climate models to represent North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Tracks from two types of climate models are evaluated: explicit tracks are obtained from tropical cyclones simulated in regional or global climate models with moderate to high horizontal resolution (1°–0.25°), and downscaled tracks are obtained using a downscaling technique with large-scale environmental fields from a subset of these models. For both configurations, tracks are objectively separated into four groups using a cluster technique, leading to a zonal and a meridional separation of the tracks. The meridional separation largely captures the separation between deep tropical and subtropical, hybrid or baroclinic cyclones, while the zonal separation segregates Gulf of Mexico and Cape Verde storms. The properties of the tracks’ seasonality, intensity, and power dissipation index in each cluster are documented for both configurations. The authors’ results show that, except for the seasonality, the downscaled tracks better capture the observed characteristics of the clusters. The authors also use three different idealized scenarios to examine the possible future changes of tropical cyclone tracks under 1) warming sea surface temperature, 2) increasing carbon dioxide, and 3) a combination of the two. The response to each scenario is highly variable depending on the simulation considered. Finally, the authors examine the role of each cluster in these future changes and find no preponderant contribution of any single cluster over the others.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1333–1361
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: tropical cyclones ; atlantic basin ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-06-22
    Description: This work explores the impact of orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations on the climate of marine isotope stage (MIS) 7 glacial inception and compares it to that of MIS 5. The authors use a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to simulate the mean climate state of six time slices at 115, 122, 125, 229, 236, and 239 kyr, representative of a climate evolution from interglacial to glacial inception conditions. The simulations are designed to separate the effects of orbital parameters from those of greenhouse gas (GHG). Their results show that, in all the time slices considered, MIS 7 boreal lands mean annual climate is colder than the MIS 5 one. This difference is explained at 70% by the impact of the MIS 7 GHG. While the impact of GHG over Northern Hemisphere is homogeneous, the difference in temperature between MIS 7 and MIS 5 due to orbital parameters differs regionally and is linked with the Arctic Oscillation. The perennial snow cover is larger in all the MIS 7 experiments compared to MIS 5, as a result of MIS 7 orbital parameters, strengthened by GHG. At regional scale, Eurasia exhibits the strongest response to MIS 7 cold climate with a perennial snow area 3 times larger than in MIS 5 experiments. This suggests that MIS 7 glacial inception is more favorable over this area than over North America. Furthermore, at 239 kyr, the perennial snow covers an area equivalent to that of MIS 5 glacial inception (115 kyr). The authors suggest that MIS 7 glacial inception is more extensive than MIS 5 glacial inception over the high latitudes.
    Description: Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research Ministry for Environment, Land and Sea through the project GEMINA
    Description: Published
    Description: 8918-8933
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Arctic Oscillation ; Teleconnections ; Greenhouse gases ; Glaciation ; Paleoclimate ; 02. Cryosphere::02.03. Ice cores::02.03.05. Paleoclimate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2020-09-07
    Description: This study presents and discusses horizontal and vertical geodetic velocities for a low strain rate region of the south Alpine thrust front in northeastern Italy obtained by integrating GPS, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and leveling data. The area is characterized by the presence of subparallel, south-verging thrusts whose seismogenic potential is still poorly known. Horizontal GPS velocities show that this sector of the eastern Southern Alps is undergoing ∼1 mm a−1 of NW–SE shortening associated with the Adria–Eurasia plate convergence, but the horizontal GPS velocity gradient across the mountain front provides limited constraints on the geometry and slip rate of the several subparallel thrusts. In terms of vertical velocities, the three geodetic methods provide consistent results showing a positive velocity gradient, of ∼ 1.5 mm a−1, across the mountain front, which can hardly be explained solely by isostatic processes. We developed an interseismic dislocation model whose geometry is constrained by available subsurface geological reconstructions and instrumental seismicity. While a fraction of the measured uplift can be attributed to glacial and erosional isostatic processes, our results suggest that interseismic strain accumulation at the Montello and the Bassano–Valdobbiadene thrusts it significantly contributing to the measured uplift. The seismogenic potential of the Montello thrust turns out to be smaller than that of the Bassano–Valdobbiadene fault, whose estimated parameters (locking depth equals 9.1 km and slip rate equals 2.1 mm a−1) indicate a structure capable of potentially generating a Mw〉6.5 earthquake. These results demonstrate the importance of precise vertical ground velocity data for modeling interseismic strain accumulation in slowly deforming regions where seismological and geomorphological evidence of active tectonics is often scarce or not conclusive.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1681–1698
    Description: 2T. Deformazione crostale attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Southern Alps ; Vertical Velocities ; GPS and InSAR integration ; Interseismic Deformation ; Dislocation Model ; Seismic Potential ; 04.03. Geodesy ; 04.07. Tectonophysics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: Producing probabilistic subseasonal forecasts of extreme events up to six weeks in advance is crucial for many economic sectors. In agribusiness, this time scale is particularly critical because it allows for mitigation strategies to be adopted for counteracting weather hazards and taking advantage of opportunities. For example, spring frosts are detrimental for many nut trees, resulting in dramatic losses at harvest time. To explore subseasonal forecast quality in boreal spring, identified as one of the most sensitive times of the year by agribusiness end users, we build a multisystem ensemble using four models involved in the Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction project (S2S). Two-meter temperature forecasts are used to analyze cold spell predictions in the coastal Black Sea region, an area that is a global leader in the production of hazelnuts. When analyzed at the global scale, the multisystem ensemble probabilistic forecasts for near-surface temperature are better than climatological values for several regions, especially the tropics, even many weeks in advance; however, in the coastal Black Sea, skill is low after the second forecast week. When cold spells are predicted instead of near-surface temperatures, skill improves for the region, and the forecasts prove to contain potentially useful information to stakeholders willing to put mitigation plans into effect. Using a cost–loss model approach for the first time in this context, we show that there is added value of having such a forecast system instead of a business-as-usual strategy, not only for predictions released 1–2 weeks ahead of the extreme event, but also at longer lead times.
    Description: Published
    Description: 237–254
    Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2021-06-07
    Description: The diagnosis of the conservation state of monumental structures from constraints to the spatial distribution of their physical properties on shallow and inner materials represents one of the key objectives in the application of non-invasive techniques. In situ, CRP and 3D ultrasonic tomography can provide an effective coverage of stone materials in space and time. The intrinsic characteristics of the materials that make up a monumental structure and affect the two properties (i.e., reflectivity, longitudinal velocity) through the above methods substantially differ. Consequently, the content of their information is mainly complementary rather than redundant. In this study we present the integrated application of different non-destructive techniques i.e., Close Range Photogrammetry (CRP), and low frequency (24 KHz) ultrasonic tomography complemented by petrographycal analysis based essentially on Optical Microscopy (OM). This integrated methodology has been applied to a Carrara marble column of the Basilica of San Saturnino, in Byzantine-Proto-Romanesque style, which is part of the Paleo Christian complex of the V-VI century. This complex also includes the adjacent Christian necropolis in the square of San Cosimo in the city of Cagliari, Sardinia, Italy. The column under study is made of bare material dating back probably to the first century A.D., it was subjected to various traumas due to disassembly and transport to the site, including damage caused by the close blast of a WWII fragmentation bomb. High resolution 3D modelling of the studied artifact was computed starting from the integration of proximal sensing techniques such as CRP based on Structure from Motion (SfM), with which information about the geometrical anomalies and reflectivity of the investigated marble column surface was obtained. On the other hand, the inner parts of the studied body were successfully inspected in a non-invasive way by computing the velocity pattern of the ultrasonic signal through the investigated materials using 3D ultrasonic tomography. This technique gives information on the elastic properties of the material related with mechanical properties and a number of factors, such as presence of fractures, voids, and flaws. Extracting information on such factors from the elastic wave velocity using 3D tomography provides a non-invasive approach to analyse the property changes of the inner material of the ancient column. The integrated application of in situ CRP and ultrasonic techniques provides a full 3D high resolution model of the investigated artifact. This model enhanced by the knowledge of the petrographic characteristics of the materials, improves the diagnostic process and affords reliable information on the state of conservation of the materials used in the construction processes of the studied monumental structure. The integrated use of the non-destructive techniques described above also provides suitable data for a possible restoration and future preservation.
    Description: Copernicus
    Description: Published
    Description: On line
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Keywords: Cultural Heritage ; Monumental Structures ; Non-Destructive Testing ; Close Range Photogrammetry ; 3D Ultrasonic Tomography ; High resolution 3D modelling ; Restoration ; Conservation ; 05.04. Instrumentation and techniques of general interest
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Abstract
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  • 6
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    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3Earth System Science Data Discussions https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2019-66, Copernicus, pp. 1-39
    Publication Date: 2019-05-02
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , notRev
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2017-08-30
    Description: Predicting future thaw slump activity requires a sound understanding of the atmospheric drivers and geomorphic controls on mass wasting across a range of time scales. On sub-seasonal time scales, sparse measurements indicate that mass wasting at active slumps is often limited by the energy available for melting ground ice, but other factors such as rainfall or the formation of an insulating veneer may also be relevant. To study the sub-seasonal drivers, we derive topographic changes from single-pass radar interferometric data acquired by the TanDEM-X satellite (12 m resolution). The high vertical precision (around 30 cm), frequent observations (11 days) and large coverage (5000 km2) allow us to track volume losses as drivers such as the available energy change during summer in two study regions. We find that thaw slumps in the Tuktoyaktuk coastlands, Canada, are not energy limited in June, as they undergo limited mass wasting (height loss of around 0 cm/day) despite the ample available energy, indicating the widespread presence of an insulating snow or debris veneer. Later in summer, height losses generally increase (around 3 cm/day), but they do so in distinct ways. For many slumps, mass wasting tracks the available energy, a temporal pattern that is also observed at coastal yedoma cliffs on the Bykovsky Peninsula, Russia. However, the other two common temporal trajectories are asynchronous with the available energy, as they track strong precipitation events or show a sudden speed-up in late August, respectively. The observed temporal patterns are poorly related to slump characteristics like the slump area. The contrasting temporal behaviour of nearby thaw slumps highlights the importance of complex local and temporally varying controls on mass wasting.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , notRev , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2017-11-06
    Description: A suite of oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs – acetaldehyde, acetone, propanal, butanal and butanone) were measured concurrently in the surface water and atmosphere of the South China Sea and Sulu Sea in November 2011. A strong correlation was observed between all OVOC concentrations in the surface seawater along the entire cruise track, except for acetaldehyde, suggesting similar sources and sinks in the surface ocean. Additionally, several phytoplankton groups, such as haptophytes or pelagophytes, were also correlated to all OVOCs indicating that phytoplankton may be an important source for marine OVOCs in the South China and Sulu Seas. Humic and protein like fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM) components seemed to be additional precursors for butanone and acetaldehyde. The atmospheric OVOC mixing ratios were relative high compared with literature values, suggesting the coastal region of North Borneo as a local hot spot for atmospheric OVOCs. The flux of atmospheric OVOCs was largely into the ocean for all 5 gases, with a few important exceptions near the coast of Borneo. The calculated amount of OVOCs entrained into the ocean seemed to be an important source of OVOCs to the surface ocean. When the fluxes were out of the ocean, marine OVOCs were found to be enough to control the local measured OVOC distribution in the atmosphere. Based on our model calculations, at least 0.4 ppb of marine derived acetone and butanone can reach the upper troposphere, where they may have an important influence on hydrogen oxide radical formation over the western Pacific Ocean.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , notRev , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 9
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    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus, 11, pp. 753-769
    Publication Date: 2018-03-28
    Description: The Extrapolar SWIFT model is a fast ozone chemistry scheme for interactive calculation of the extrapolar stratospheric ozone layer in coupled general circulation models (GCMs). In contrast to the widely used prescribed ozone, the SWIFT ozone layer interacts with the model dynamics and can respond to atmospheric variability or climatological trends. The Extrapolar SWIFT model employs a repro-modelling approach, where algebraic functions are used to approximate the numerical output of a full stratospheric chemistry and transport model (ATLAS). The full model solves a coupled chemical differential equations system with 55 initial and boundary conditions (mixing ratio of various chemical species and atmospheric parameters). Hence the rate of change of ozone over 24  h is a function of 55 variables. Using covariances between these variables, we can find linear combinations in order to reduce the parameter space to the following nine basic variables: latitude, pressure altitude, temperature, local ozone column, mixing ratio of ozone and of the ozone depleting families (Cly, Bry, NOy and HOy). We will show that these 9 variables are sufficient to characterize the rate of change of ozone. An automated procedure fits a polynomial function of fourth degree to the rate of change of ozone obtained from several simulations with the ATLAS model. One polynomial function is determined per month which yields the rate of change of ozone over 24 h. A key aspect for the robustness of the Extrapolar SWIFT model is to include a wide range of stratospheric variability in the numerical output of the ATLAS model, also covering atmospheric states that will occur in a future climate (e.g. temperature and meridional circulation changes or reduction of stratospheric chlorine loading). For validation purposes, the Extrapolar SWIFT model has been integrated into the ATLAS model replacing the full stratospheric chemistry scheme. Simulations with SWIFT in ATLAS have proven that the systematic error is small and does not accumulate during the course of a simulation. In the context of a 10 year simulation, the ozone layer, simulated by SWIFT, shows a stable annual cycle, with inter-annual variations comparable to the ATLAS model. The application of Extrapolar SWIFT requires the evaluation of polynomial functions with 30–100 terms. Nowadays, computers can calculate such polynomial functions at thousands of model grid points in seconds. SWIFT provides the desired numerical efficiency and computes the ozone layer 104 times faster than the chemistry scheme in the ATLAS CTM.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 10
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    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3The Cryosphere, Copernicus, 11(5), pp. 2383-2391
    Publication Date: 2017-10-24
    Description: Ice retreat in the eastern Eurasian Arctic is a consequence of atmospheric and oceanic processes and regional feedback mechanisms acting on the ice cover, both in winter and summer. A correct representation of these processes in numerical models is important, since it will improve predictions of sea ice anomalies along the Northeast Passage and beyond. In this study, we highlight the importance of winter ice dynamics for local summer sea ice anomalies in thickness, volume and extent. By means of airborne sea ice thickness surveys made over pack ice areas in the south-eastern Laptev Sea, we show that years of offshore-directed sea ice transport have a thinning effect on the late-winter sea ice cover. To confirm the preconditioning effect of enhanced offshore advection in late winter on the summer sea ice cover, we perform a sensitivity study using a numerical model. Results verify that the preconditioning effect plays a bigger role for the regional ice extent. Furthermore, they indicate an increase in volume export from the Laptev Sea as a consequence of enhanced offshore advection, which has far-reaching consequences for the entire Arctic sea ice mass balance. Moreover we show that ice dynamics in winter not only preconditions local summer ice extent, but also accelerate fast-ice decay.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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