ALBERT

Beschreibung: Summary On 24th August 2016 at 01:36 UTC a ML6.0 earthquake struck several villages in central Italy, among which Accumoli, Amatrice and Arquata del Tronto. The earthquake was recorded by about 350 seismic stations, causing 299 fatalities and damage with macroseismic intensities up to 11. The maximum acceleration was observed at Amatrice station (AMT) reaching 916 cm/s2 on E-W component, with epicentral distance of 15 km and Joyner and Boore distance to the fault surface (RJB) of less than a kilometre. Motivated by the high levels of observed ground motion and damage, we generate broadband seismograms for engineering purposes by adopting a hybrid method. To infer the low frequency seismograms, we considered the kinematic slip model by Tinti et al. (2016). The high frequency seismograms were produced using a stochastic finite-fault model approach based on dynamic corner-frequency. Broadband synthetic time series were therefore obtained by merging the low and high frequency seismograms. Simulated hybrid ground motions were compared both with the observed ground motions and the ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), to explore their performance and to retrieve the region-specific parameters endorsed for the simulations. In the near-fault area we observed that hybrid simulations have a higher capability to detect near source effects and to reproduce the source complexity than the use of GMPEs. Indeed, the general good consistency found between synthetic and observed ground motion (both in the time and frequency domain), suggests that the use of regional-specific source scaling and attenuation parameters together with the source complexity in hybrid simulations improves ground motion estimations. To include the site effect in stochastic simulations at selected stations, we tested the use of amplification curves derived from HVRSs (horizontal-to-vertical response spectra) and from HVSRs (horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios) rather than the use of generic curves according to NTC-18 Italian seismic design code. We generally found a further reduction of residuals between observed and simulated both in terms of time histories and spectra.

Beschreibung: Summary We explore here the benefits of using constraints from seismic tomography in gravity data inversion and how inverted density distributions can be improved by doing so. The methodology is applied to a real field case in which we reconstruct the density structure of the Pyrenees along a southwest-northeast transect going from the Ebro basin in Spain to the Arzacq basin in France. We recover the distribution of densities by inverting gravity anomalies under constraints coming from seismic tomography. We initiate the inversion from a prior density model obtained by scaling a pre-existing compressional seismic velocity Vp model using a Nafe-Drake relationship : the Vp model resulting from a full-waveform inversion of teleseismic data. Gravity data inversions enforce structural similarities between Vp and density by minimizing the norm of the cross-gradient between the density and Vp models. We also compare models obtained from 2.5D and 3D inversions. Our results demonstrate that structural constraints allow us to better recover the density contrasts close to the surface and at depth, without degrading the gravity data misfit. The final density model provides valuable information on the geological structures and on the thermal state and composition of the western region of the Pyrenean lithosphere.

Beschreibung: Summary The relatively short duration of the early stages of subduction results in a poor geological record, limiting our understanding of this critical stage. Here, we utilize a 2D numerical model of incipient subduction, that is the stage after a plate margin has formed with a slab tip that extends to a shallow depth and address the conditions under which subduction continues or fails. We assess energy budgets during the evolution from incipient subduction to either a failed or successful state, showing how the growth of potential energy, and slab pull, is resisted by the viscous dissipation within the lithosphere and the mantle. The role of rheology is also investigated, as deformation mechanisms operating in the crust and mantle facilitate subduction. In all models, the onset of subduction is characterized by high lithospheric viscous dissipation and low convergence velocities, whilst successful subduction sees the mantle become the main area of viscous dissipation. In contrast, failed subduction is defined by the lithospheric viscous dissipation exceeding the lithospheric potential energy release rate and velocities tend towards zero. We show that development of a subduction zone depends on the convergence rate, required to overcome thermal diffusion and to localise deformation along the margin. The results propose a minimum convergence rate of ∼ 0.5 cm yr−1 is required to reach a successful state, with 100 km of convergence over 20 Myr, emphasizing the critical role of the incipient stage.

Beschreibung: Summary Although many studies have revealed that the atmospheric effects of electromagnetic wave propagation (including ionospheric and tropospheric water vapor) have serious impacts on Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurement results, atmospheric corrections have not been thoroughly and comprehensively investigated in many well-known cases of InSAR focal mechanism solutions, which means there is no consensus on whether atmospheric effects will affect the InSAR focal mechanism solution. Moreover, there is a lack of quantitative assessment on how much the atmospheric effect affects the InSAR focal mechanism solution. In this paper, we emphasized that it was particularly important to assess the impact of InSAR ionospheric and tropospheric corrections on the underground nuclear explosion modeling quantitatively. Therefore, we investigated the 4th North Korea (NKT-4) underground nuclear test using ALOS-2 liters-band SAR images. Because the process of the underground nuclear explosion was similar to the volcanic magma source activity, we modeled the ground displacement using the Mogi model. Both the ionospheric and tropospheric phase delays in the interferograms were investigated. Furthermore, we studied how the ionosphere and troposphere phase delays could bias the estimation of Mogi source parameters. The following conclusions were drawn from our case study: The ionospheric delay correction effectively mitigated the long-scale phase ramp in the full-frame interferogram, the standard deviation decreased from 1.83 cm to 0.85 cm compared to the uncorrected interferogram. The uncorrected estimations of yield and depth were 8.44 kt and 370.33 m, respectively. Compared to the uncorrected estimations, the ionospheric correction increased the estimation of yield and depth to 9.43 kt and 385.48 m while the tropospheric correction slightly raised them to 8.78 kt and 377.24 m. There were no obvious differences in the location estimations among the four interferograms. When both corrections were applied, the overall standard deviation was 1.16 cm, which was even larger than the ionospheric corrected interferogram. We reported the source characteristics of NKT-4 based on the modeling results derived from the ionospheric corrected interferogram. The preferred estimation of NKT-4 was a Mogi source located at 129°04′22.35‘E, 41°17′54.57″N buried at 385.48 m depth. The cavity radius caused by the underground explosion was 22.02 m. We reported the yield estimation to be 9.43 kt. This study showed that for large-scale natural deformation sources such as volcanoes and earthquakes, atmospheric corrections would be more significant, but even if the atmospheric signal did not have much complexity, the corrections should not be ignored.

Beschreibung: SUMMARY Self-consistent modelling of magmatic systems is challenging as the melt continuously changes its chemical composition upon crystallization, which may affect the mechanical behaviour of the system. Melt extraction and subsequent crystallization create new rocks while depleting the source region. As the chemistry of the source rocks changes locally due to melt extraction, new calculations of the stable phase assemblages are required to track the rock evolution and the accompanied change in density. As a consequence, a large number of isochemical sections of stable phase assemblages are required to study the evolution of magmatic systems in detail. As the state-of-the-art melting diagrams may depend on nine oxides as well as pressure and temperature, this is a 10-D computational problem. Since computing a single isochemical section (as a function of pressure and temperature) may take several hours, computing new sections of stable phase assemblages during an ongoing geodynamic simulation is currently computationally intractable. One strategy to avoid this problem is to pre-compute these stable phase assemblages and to create a comprehensive database as a hyperdimensional phase diagram, which contains all bulk compositions that may emerge during petro-thermomechanical simulations. Establishing such a database would require repeating geodynamic simulations many times while collecting all requested compositions that may occur during a typical simulation and continuously updating the database until no additional compositions are required. Here, we describe an alternative method that is better suited for implementation on large-scale parallel computers. Our method uses the entries of an existing preliminary database to estimate future required chemical compositions. Bulk compositions are determined within boundaries that are defined manually or through principal component analysis in a parameter space consisting of clustered database entries. We have implemented both methods within a massively parallel computational framework while utilizing the Gibbs free energy minimization program Perple_X. Results show that our autonomous approach increases the resolution of the thermodynamic database in compositional regions that are most likely required for geodynamic models of magmatic systems.

Beschreibung: Transformation of refractory cratonic mantle into more fertile lithologies is the key to the fate of cratonic lithosphere. This process has been extensively studied in the eastern North China Craton (NCC) while that of its western part is still poorly constrained. A comprehensive study of newly-found pyroxenite xenoliths from the Langshan area, in the northwestern part of this craton is integrated with a regional synthesis of pyroxenite and peridotite xenoliths to constrain the petrogenesis of the pyroxenites and provide an overview of the processes involved in the modification of the deep lithosphere. The Langshan pyroxenites are of two types, high-Mg# [Mg2+/(Mg2++Fe2+)*100 = ∼ 90, atomic ratios] olivine-bearing websterites with high equilibration temperatures (880 ∼ 970 oC), and low-Mg# (70 ∼ 80) plagioclase-bearing websterites with low equilibration temperatures (550 ∼ 835 oC). The high-Mg# pyroxenites show trade-off abundances of olivine and orthopyroxene, highly depleted bulk Sr-Nd (ƐNd = +11.41, 87Sr/86Sr = ∼0.7034) and low clinopyroxene Sr isotopic ratios (mean 87Sr/86Sr = ∼0.703). They are considered to reflect the reaction of mantle peridotites with silica-rich silicate melts derived from the convective mantle. Their depletion in fusible components (e.g., FeO, TiO2 and Na2O) and progressive exhaustion of incompatible elements suggest melt extraction after their formation. The low-Mg# pyroxenites display layered structures, convex-upward rare earth element patterns, moderately enriched bulk Sr-Nd isotopic ratios (ƐNd = -14.20 ∼ -16.74, 87Sr/86Sr = 0.7070 ∼ 0.7078) and variable clinopyroxene Sr-isotope ratios (87Sr/86Sr = 0.706-0.711). They are interpreted to be crustal cumulates from hypersthene-normative melts generated by interaction between the asthenosphere and heterogeneous lithospheric mantle. Combined with studies on regional peridotite xenoliths, it is shown that the thinning and refertilization of the lithospheric mantle was accompanied by crustal rejuvenation and that such processes occurred ubiquitously in the northwestern part of the NCC. A geodynamic model is proposed for the evolution of the deep lithosphere, which includes long-term mass transfer through a mantle wedge into the deep crust from the Paleozoic to the Cenozoic, triggered by subduction of the Paleo-Asian ocean and the Late Mesozoic lithospheric extension of eastern Asia.

Beschreibung: Fishermen are known to try to avoid fishing in stormy weather, as storms pose a physical threat to fishers, their vessels, and their gear. In this article, a dataset and methods are developed to investigate the degree to which fishers avoid storms, estimate storm aversion parameters, and explore how this response varies across vessel characteristics and across regions of the United States. The data consist of vessel-level trip-taking decisions from six federal fisheries across the United States combined with marine storm warning data from the National Weather Service. The estimates of storm aversion can be used to parameterize predictive models. Fishers’ aversion to storms decreases with increasing vessel size and increases with the severity of the storm warning. This information contributes to our understanding of the risk-to-revenue trade-off that fishers evaluate every time they consider going to sea, and of the propensity of fishers to take adaptive actions to avoid facing additional physical risk.

Beschreibung: Sardine Sardinops sagax is an ecologically and economically important Clupeid found off the entire South African coast that includes both coastal upwelling and western boundary current systems. Although the management of the sardine fisheries historically assumed a single, panmictic population, the existence of three, semi-discrete subpopulations has recently been hypothesized. We conducted otolith δ18O and microstructure analyses to investigate nursery habitat temperatures and early life growth rates, respectively, of sardine collected from three biogeographic regions around South Africa’s coast to test that hypothesis. Analyses indicated that for both summer- and winter-captured adults and summer-captured juveniles, fishes from the west coast grew significantly slower in water that was several degrees cooler than those from the south and east coasts. This suggests that mixing of sardines between regions, particularly the west and other coasts, is relatively limited and supports the hypothesis of semi-discrete subpopulations. However, the west-south differences disappeared in the results for winter-captured juveniles, suggesting that differences in early life conditions between regions may change seasonally, and/or that all or most winter-captured juveniles originated from the west coast. Further elucidating the interactions between South African sardine subpopulations and the mechanisms thereof is important for sustainable harvesting of this species.

Beschreibung: The orogenic development after the continental collision between Laurussia and Gondwana, led to two contrasting associations of mantle-derived magmatic rocks on the territory of the Bohemian Massif: (i) a 340–310 Ma lamprophyre-lamproite orogenic association and (ii) a 300–275 Ma lamprophyre association of anorogenic affinity. Major types of potassic mantle-derived magmatic rocks recognised in the orogenic and anorogenic associations include: (i) calc-alkaline to alkaline lamprophyres, (ii) alkaline “orthopyroxene minettes” (and geochemically related rocks), and (iii) peralkaline lamproites. These three types significantly differ with respect to mineral, whole-rock and Sr–Nd–Pb–Li isotope composition, and spatial distribution. The calc-alkaline lamprophyres occur throughout the entire Saxo-Thuringian and Moldanubian zones, whereas the different types of malte-derived potassic rocks are spatially restricted to particular zones. Rocks of the Carboniferous lamprophyre-lamproite orogenic association are characterised by variable negative εNd(i) and variably radiogenic Sr(i), whereas the rocks of the Permian lamprophyre association of anorogenic affinity are characterised by positive εNd(i) and relatively young depleted-mantle Nd-model ages reflecting increasing input from upwelling asthenospheric mantle. The small variation in the Pb isotopic composition of post-collisional potassic mantle-derived magmatic rocks (of both the orogenic and anorogenic series) implies that the Pb budget of the mantle beneath the Bohemian Massif is dominated by the same crust-derived material, which itself may include material derived from several sources. The source rocks of “orthopyroxene minettes” are characterised by isotopically light (“eclogitic”) Li and strongly radiogenic (crustal) Sr and may have been metasomatised by high-pressure fluids along the edge of a subduction zone. In contrast, the strongly Al2O3 and CaO depleted mantle source of the lamproites is characterised by isotopically heavy Li and high SiO2 and extreme K2O contents. This mantle source may have been metasomatised predominantly by melts. The mantle source of the lamprophyres may have undergone metasomatism by both fluids and melts.

Beschreibung: SUMMARY We present a statistical rock physics inversion of the elastic and electrical properties to estimate the petrophysical properties and quantify the associated uncertainty. The inversion method combines statistical rock physics modeling with Bayesian inverse theory. The model variables of interest are porosity and fluid saturations. The rock physics model includes the elastic and electrical components and can be applied to the results of seismic and electromagnetic inversion. To describe the non-Gaussian behaviour of the model properties, we adopt non-parametric probability density functions to sample multimodal and skewed distributions of the model variables. Different from machine learning approach, the proposed method is not completely data-driven but is based on a statistical rock physics model to link the model parameters to the data. The proposed method provides pointwise posterior distributions of the porosity and CO2 saturation along with the most-likely models and the associated uncertainty. The method is validated using synthetic and real data acquired for CO2 sequestration studies in different formations: the Rock Springs Uplift in Southwestern Wyoming and the Johansen formation in the North Sea, offshore Norway. The proposed approach is validated under different noise conditions and compared to traditional parametric approaches based on Gaussian assumptions. The results show that the proposed method provides an accurate inversion framework where instead of fitting the relationship between the model and the data, we account for the uncertainty in the rock physics model.

Beschreibung: SUMMARY The horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) of ambient noise is commonly used to infer a site's resonance frequency (${f_{0,site}}$). HVSR calculations are performed most commonly using the Fourier amplitude spectrum obtained from a single merged horizontal component (e.g. the geometric mean component) from a three-component sensor. However, the use of a single merged horizontal component implicitly relies on the assumptions of azimuthally isotropic seismic noise and 1-D surface and subsurface conditions. These assumptions may not be justified at many sites, leading to azimuthal variability in HVSR measurements that cannot be accounted for using a single merged component. This paper proposes a new statistical method to account for azimuthal variability in the peak frequency of HVSR curves (${f_{0,HVSR}}$). The method uses rotated horizontal components at evenly distributed azimuthal intervals to investigate and quantify azimuthal variability. To ensure unbiased statistics for ${f_{0,HVSR}}$ are obtained, a frequency-domain window-rejection algorithm is applied at each azimuth to automatically remove contaminated time windows in which the ${f_{0,HVSR}}$ values are statistical outliers relative to those obtained from the majority of windows at that azimuth. Then, a weighting scheme is used to account for different numbers of accepted time windows at each azimuth. The new method is applied to a data set of 114 HVSR measurements with significant azimuthal variability in ${f_{0,HVSR}}$, and is shown to reliably account for this variability. The methodology is also extended to the estimation of a complete lognormal-median HVSR curve that accounts for azimuthal variability. To encourage the adoption of this statistical approach to accounting for azimuthal variability in single-station HVSR measurements, the methods presented in this paper have been incorporated into hvsrpy, an open-source Python package for HVSR processing.

Beschreibung: SUMMARY This study focuses in the analysis of the internal structure of the upper 3 km of Los Humeros (LH) caldera and the relation of electrical and hydrothermal anomalies. For this purpose, we measured, processed and interpreted 78 broad-band magnetotelluric (MT) soundings. We performed a 3-D inversion of the data set (ModEM) using all MT soundings, although only half of the available frequencies per sounding due to limited computed power. We also carried out the 2-D inversions (NLCG) of the invariant determinant along two orthogonal profiles (EW and NS) crossing the caldera structure; their comparison yields similar resistivity and structural models results. The resistivity modelling is complemented with the results of a joint 3-D inversion of an accurate gravity database of 720 stations, and total field aeromagnetic data (SGM) from the caldera crater. The combined results provide novel details about the structure of the shallow geothermal reservoir of the resurgence caldera complex hosting the active hydrothermal system. Density and resistivity models show the existence of a composed crater basin structure separated by an EW high-density structure; the northern basin is associated to the LH crater, whereas the southern basin associates to the emergent Los Potreros (LP) caldera basin. The magnetization model indicates that there is a common source for the magnetic volcanic products observed at the caldera surface, and that the LP fault is the more magnetized fault of the geothermal system. The propylic zoning under the geothermal field, which according to the MT model results has resistivities above ∼100 Ω-m, was extrapolated using this and additional criteria to obtain the distribution of other hypothetical propylitic zones of hydrothermal potential.

Beschreibung: SUMMARY For the time stationary global geomagnetic field, a new modelling concept is presented. A Bayesian non-parametric approach provides realistic location dependent uncertainty estimates. Modelling related variabilities are dealt with systematically by making little subjective a priori assumptions. Rather than parametrizing the model by Gauss coefficients, a functional analytic approach is applied. The geomagnetic potential is assumed a Gaussian process to describe a distribution over functions. A priori correlations are given by an explicit kernel function with non-informative dipole contribution. A refined modelling strategy is proposed that accommodates non-linearities of archeomagnetic observables: First, a rough field estimate is obtained considering only sites that provide full field vector records. Subsequently, this estimate supports the linearization that incorporates the remaining incomplete records. The comparison of results for the archeomagnetic field over the past 1000 yr is in general agreement with previous models while improved model uncertainty estimates are provided.

Beschreibung: SUMMARY Rapid development of time-lapse seismic monitoring instrumentations has made it possible to collect dense time-lapse data for tomographically retrieving time-lapse (even continuous) images of subsurface changes. While traditional time-lapse full waveform inversion (TLFWI) algorithms are designed for sparse time-lapse surveys, they lack of effective temporal constraint on time-lapse data, and, more importantly, lack of the uncertainty estimation of the TLFWI results that is critical for further interpretation. Here, we propose a new data assimilation TLFWI method, using hierarchical matrix powered extended Kalman filter (HiEKF) to quantify the image uncertainty. Compared to existing Kalman filter algorithms, HiEKF allows to store and update a data-sparse representation of the cross-covariance matrices and propagate model errors without expensive operations involving covariance matrices. Hence, HiEKF is computationally efficient and applicable to 3-D TLFWI problems. Then, we reformulate TLFWI in the framework of HiEKF (termed hereafter as TLFWI-HiEKF) to predict time-lapse images of subsurface spatiotemporal velocity changes and simultaneously quantify the uncertainty of the inverted velocity changes over time. We demonstrate the validity and applicability of TLFWI–HiEKF with two realistic CO2 monitoring models derived from Frio-II and Cranfield CO2 injection sites, respectively. In both 2-D and 3-D examples, the inverted high-resolution time-lapse velocity results clearly reveal a continuous velocity reduction due to the injection of CO2. Moreover, the accuracy of the model is increasing over time by assimilating more time-lapse data while the standard deviation is decreasing over lapsed time. We expect TLFWI-HiEKF to be equipped with real-time seismic monitoring systems for continuously imaging the distribution of subsurface gas and fluids in the future large-scale CO2 sequestration experiments and reservoir management.

Beschreibung: SUMMARY Seven years after the beginning of a massive wastewater injection project in eastern Colombia, local earthquake activity increased significantly. The field operator and the Colombian Geological Survey immediately reinforced the monitoring of the area. Our analysis of the temporal evolution of the seismic and injection data together with our knowledge of the geological parameters of the region indicate that the surge of seismicity is being induced by the re-injection of produced water into the same three producing reservoirs. Earthquake activity began on known faults once disposal rates had reached a threshold of ∼2 × 106 m3 of water per month. The average reservoir pressure had remained constant at 7.6 MPa after several years of production, sustained by a large, active aquifer. Surface injection pressures in the seismically active areas remain below 8.3 MPa, a value large enough to activate some of the faults. Since faults are mapped throughout the region and many do not have seismicity on them, we conclude that the existence of known faults is not the only control on whether earthquakes are generated. Stress conditions of these faults are open to future studies. Earthquakes are primarily found in four clusters, located near faults mapped by the operator. The hypocentres reveal vertical planes with orientations consistent with focal mechanisms of these events. Stress inversion of the focal mechanisms gives a maximum compression in the direction ENE-WSW, which is in agreement with borehole breakout measurements. Since the focal mechanisms of the earthquakes are consistent with the tectonic stress regime, we can conclude that the seismicity is resulting from the activation of critically stressed faults. Slip was progressive and seismic activity reached a peak before declining to few events per month. The decline in seismicity suggests that most of the stress has been relieved on the main faults. The magnitude of a large majority of the recorded earthquakes was lower than 4, as the pore pressure disturbance did not reach the mapped large faults whose activation might have resulted in larger magnitude earthquakes. Our study shows that a good knowledge of the local fault network and conditions of stress is of paramount importance when planning a massive water disposal program. These earthquakes indicate that while faults provide an opportunity to dispose produced water at an economically attractive volume–pressure ratio, the possibility of induced seismicity must also be considered.

Beschreibung: To get the best result for seismic imaging using primary reflections, data with densely-spaced sources and receivers are ideally preferred. However, dense acquisition can sometimes be hindered by various obstacles, like platforms or complex topography. Such areas with large data gaps may deter exploration or monitoring, as conventional imaging strategies would either provide poor seismic images or turn out to be very expensive. Surface-related multiples travel along different paths compared to primaries, illuminating a wider subsurface area and hence making them valuable in case of data with large gaps. We propose different strategies of using surface-related multiples to get around the problem of imaging in the case of a large data gap. Conventional least-squares imaging methods that incorporate surface-related multiples do so by re-injecting the measured wavefield in the forward-modelling process, which makes it still sensitive to missing data. We introduce a ‘non-linear’ inversion approach in which the surface multiples are modelled from the original source field. This makes the method less dependent on the receiver geometry, therefore, effectively exploiting the information from surface multiples in cases of limited illumination. However, such an approach is sensitive to the knowledge of the source properties. Therefore, we propose a ‘hybrid’ method that combines the non-linear imaging method with the conventional ‘linear’ multiple imaging method, which further improves our imaging result. We test the methods on numerical as well as field data. The results indicate substantial removal of artefacts in the image derived from linear imaging methods due to incomplete data, by exploiting the surface multiples to a maximum extent.

Beschreibung: The Lu–Hf isotope system and Sr–Nd–Hf–Os isotope systematics of mantle rocks are capable of unravelling the early processes in collision belts, especially in a hot subduction context where the Sm–Nd and U–Pb systems in crustal rocks are prone to resetting owing to high temperatures and interaction with melts during exhumation. To improve models of the Devonian–Carboniferous evolution of the Bohemian Massif, we investigated in detail mafic and ultramafic rocks (eclogite, pyroxenite, and peridotite) from the ultrahigh-pressure and ultrahigh-temperature Kutná Hora Crystalline Complex (KHCC: Úhrov, Bečváry, Doubrava, and Spačice localities). Petrography, multiphase solid inclusions, major and trace element compositions of rocks and minerals, and radiogenic isotopic data document contrasting sources and protoliths as well as effects of subduction-related processes for these rocks. The Úhrov peridotite has a depleted composition corresponding to the suboceanic asthenospheric mantle, whereas Bečváry and Doubrava peridotites represent lithospheric mantle that underwent melt refertilization by basaltic and SiO2-undersaturated melts, respectively. Multiphase solid inclusions enclosed in garnet from Úhrov and Bečváry peridotites represent trapped H2O ± CO2-bearing metasomatizing agents and Fe–Ti-rich melts. The KHCC eclogites either formed by high-pressure crystal accumulation from mantle-derived basaltic melts (Úhrov) or represent a fragment of mid-ocean ridge basalt-like gabbroic cumulate (Spačice) and crustal-derived material (Doubrava) both metamorphosed at high P–T conditions. The Lu–Hf age of 395 ± 23 Ma obtained for the Úhrov peridotite reflects garnet growth related to burial of the asthenospheric mantle during subduction of the oceanic slab. By contrast, Spačice and Doubrava eclogites yield younger Lu–Hf ages of ∼350 and 330 Ma, respectively, representing mixed ages as demonstrated by the strong granulite-facies overprint and trace element zoning in garnet grains. We propose a refined model for the Early Variscan evolution of the Bohemian Massif starting with the subduction of the oceanic crust (Saxothuringian ocean) and associated oceanic asthenospheric mantle (Úhrov) beneath the Teplá–Barrandian at ≥380 Ma, which was responsible for melt refertilization of the associated mantle wedge (Bečváry, Doubrava). This was followed by continental subduction (∼370–360 Ma?) accompanied by the oceanic slab break-off and incorporation of the upwelling asthenospheric mantle into the Moldanubian lithospheric mantle and subsequent coeval exhumation of mantle and crustal rocks at ∼350–330 Ma.

Beschreibung: Summary Virtual Deep Seismic Sounding (VDSS) uses the arrival time of post-critical SsPmp relative to the direct S wave to infer Moho depth at the Pmp reflection point. Due to the large offset between the virtual source and the receiver, SsPmp is more sensitive to lateral variations of structures than near-vertical phases such as Ps, which is used to construct conventional P receiver functions. However, the way post-critical SsPmp is affected by lateral variations in lithospheric structure is not well understood, and previous studies largely assumed a 1D structure when analyzing SsPmp waveforms. Here we present synthetic tests with various 2D models to show that lateral variations in lithospheric structures, from the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary to sedimentary basins, profoundly affect travel time, phase, and amplitude of post-critical SsPmp, and that a 1D approximation is usually inappropriate when analyzing 2D data. Despite these strong effects we show, with synthetic examples and the ChinArray data from the Ordos Block in northern China, that a simple ray-theory-based back-projection method can retrieve the geometry of the crust-mantle boundary given array observations in cases with moderate lateral variations in the crust-mantle boundary and/or the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary. The success of our back-projection method indicates that ray-theory approximations are sufficient in modeling SsPmp travel times in the presence of moderate lateral heterogeneity. In contrast, we show that the ray theory is generally insufficient in modeling SsPmp phase shifts in a strongly heterogeneous lithosphere due to non-planar down-going P waves incident at the crust-mantle boundary. Nonetheless, our results demonstrate the feasibility of direct imaging of the crust-mantle boundary with post-critical SsPmp even in the presence of 2D variations of lithospheric structure.

Beschreibung: Progress towards ecosystem-based fisheries management calls for useful tools to prioritize actions. To select suitable methods for local circumstances, evaluating approaches used in other jurisdictions can be a cost-effective first step. We tested Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA) to assess the potential vulnerability of the marine fish community in the Skagerrak–Kattegat (Eastern North Sea) to possible interactions with all Swedish fisheries operating in the area. This analysis combines attributes for a species productivity with attributes related to the susceptibility to capture to quantify a single score for vulnerability: high, medium, or low risk. Results indicate that demersal trawl and gillnet fisheries were associated with the highest risk levels if interaction occurs, i.e. having the highest prevalence of species with potentially high vulnerability to the fisheries. Mixed results were seen when comparing the assessment results with available data. The main benefit of utilizing PSA in the area is the comprehensiveness of the assessment, including data-deficient fisheries and species. Drawbacks include potential overestimation of actual risks. Overall, together with available data, PSA in the studied area provides a comprehensive map of potential risks for further actions and may progress a science-based, precautionary management of the area.

Beschreibung: While fisheries provide food and employment for hundreds of millions of people, they also can have significant impact on biodiversity. We explore the potential of area-based fisheries management to simultaneously maintain biodiversity and high levels of sustainable food production. We used two illustrative examples of fisheries that have different gear types, areas, and species to evaluate the trade-off between biodiversity and harvest. We calculate the optimal effort by gear and area that maximizes a weighted objective function of biodiversity and harvest, ranging from 100% of the weight on harvest to 100% on biodiversity. We found for both case studies that the trade-off was highly convex, with win–win solutions allowing for high levels of both fishery harvest and conservation. This is achieved by reducing or eliminating fishing effort that negatively impacts high conservation value species while maintaining fishing effort with gears and in areas where there is low conservation impact. We suggest that, in most fisheries, such situations can be found and that effective area-based management can provide for high levels of biodiversity protection and food production.

Beschreibung: To determine the failure characteristics and evolution regularity of the floor strata during fully mechanised top-coal cave mining in typical deep and extra-thick seams in western China, the 61303 working face of an Ordos mine was selected as the engineering research object. A comprehensive monitoring method combining a BOTDR (Brillouin Optical Time-Domain Reflection) distributed fiber strain test and a borehole resistivity CT (Computerised Tomography) test was adopted. The results show that floor stress distribution of the deep-buried and extra-thick coal seam is significantly affected by the different depths of rock lithology. At the interface of the rock strata with a large difference in the elastic modulus, phenomena such as the asynchronism of strata movement and obvious differences in failure easily occur. The failure depth of the floor strata in the 61303 working face is approximately 15.90 m, and the influence depth of the floor disturbance is approximately 32.70 m. Under the influence of the mining pressure, floor stress distribution and crack evolution have obvious spatial and temporal effects. In different inclined boreholes, the data captured by the cable have different values and the fracture locations of the cable also differ. Compared with a single borehole, multiple boreholes with different inclinations, directions and locations can provide more comprehensive and reliable data trends. The knowledge obtained by this monitoring can provide reference information for the study of floor damage under similar conditions and the formulation of technical measures such as those that prevent mine water disasters.

Beschreibung: Summary The Mw 6.0 earthquake that hit central Italy on 24 August 2016 caused an abnormally high level of destruction in the town of Amatrice. In order to clarify the role of site response in causing such a disaster, a series of ambient noise recordings acquired in the aftermath of the event are analysed here to identify site resonance properties from the ratios H/V between horizontal and vertical amplitudes of ground motion. Although the noise data acquisition was limited by the emergency management activities, the use of a new analysis technique, which isolates the contribution of Rayleigh waves to the noise wavefield and averages instantaneous estimates of H/V ratios, provided more stable results compared to the standard Nakamura's technique based on mean spectral ratios. The results demonstrated the occurrence of significant resonance phenomena, but without an obvious correlation with the spatial distribution of damage severity. It is apparent that the damage severity was also influenced by some additional local factors related to building vulnerability. Moreover, the time series analysis revealed seasonal variations in the Rayleigh wave ellipticity curves likely related to the water content changes in the surface deposits and their influence on the Poisson coefficient. Finally, the new method proved capable of recognizing time-varying directions of Rayleigh wave propagation. This capability could be exploited to support other passive seismic methods (e.g. ReMi), whose results reliability is limited by the lack of control on wave direction origin.

Beschreibung: SUMMARY This paper explores the effects on tsunami simulations of the level of detail of the bathymetric grid in use. For this purpose, we expand available bathymetric data sets of the Pacific Basin in spherical harmonics. For realistic scenarios of tsunamis generated by earthquake dislocations, we conclude that an expansion to a maximum degree lmax = 40, corresponding to wavelengths of 1000 km, is sufficient to reproduce the main features of the tsunami wavefield synthesized in deep water, that is, without considering final shoaling and interaction with coastal features.

Beschreibung: SUMMARY Full-waveform inversion (FWI) has demonstrated increasing success in estimating medium properties, but its computational cost still poses challenges in moving towards high-resolution imaging of targets at depth. Here, we propose a target-oriented FWI method that inverts for the medium parameters confined within an arbitrary region of interest. Our method is novel in terms of both local wavefield modelling and data redatuming, in order to build a target-oriented objective function which is sensitive to the target medium only without further assumptions about the medium outside. Based on the convolution-type representation theorem, our local forward modelling operator propagates wavefields within the target medium only while providing full acoustic coupling between the target medium and the surrounding geology. A key requirement of our local FWI method is that the subsurface wavefields surrounding and inside the target be as accurate as possible. As such, the subsurface wavefields are retrieved by the Marchenko method, which can redatum the single-sided surface reflection data to the target zone while preserving both primary and multiple reflections, with minimal a priori knowledge of the full-domain medium. Given a sufficiently accurate initial velocity macromodel, our numerical examples show that our local FWI method resolves the reservoir zone of a 2-D Barrett Unconventional P-wave velocity model much more efficiently than the conventional full-domain FWI without significantly sacrificing accuracy. Our method may further enable FWI approaches to high-resolution imaging of subsurface targets.

Beschreibung: The Changning–Menglian orogenic belt (CMOB) in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau is an important link between the Longmu Co–Shuanghu suture (LCSS) in the northern Tibetan Plateau and the Chiang Mai–Inthanon and Bentong–Raub sutures in Thailand and Peninsular Malaysia. These belts and sutures are generally regarded as containing the remnants of the oceanic crust of the Palaeo-Tethys that formed by seafloor spreading as a result of the separation of Gondwana- and Eurasia-derived blocks during the Middle Cambrian. In this paper we report the first discovery of abundant unaltered and retrograde eclogites that occur as irregular lenses and blocks in metasedimentary rocks of the CMOB, and these eclogites form an elongate and almost north–south-trending high-pressure (HP)–ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) metamorphic belt that is ∼200 km long and ∼50 km wide. The newly discovered phengite/talc/epidote–glaucophane eclogites, lawsonite–talc–phengite eclogites, dolomite/magnesite–kyanite eclogites and phengite–kyanite-bearing retrograde eclogites have enriched (E-) and normal mid-ocean ridge basalt (N-MORB)-like affinities and mainly positive as well as some negative whole-rock εNd values (–4·34 to +7·89), which suggest an enriched and depleted oceanic lithosphere source for their protoliths. Magmatic zircons separated from the epidote–glaucophane, magnesite–kyanite and (phengite–kyanite-bearing) retrograde eclogites gave protolith ages of 317–250 Ma, which fit well within the time frame of the opening of the Palaeo-Tethys during the Middle Cambrian and its closure during the Triassic. Abundant metamorphic zircons in the eclogites indicate a Triassic metamorphic event related to the subduction of the Palaeo-Tethys oceanic crust from 235 to 227 Ma. Taking into account previous isotopic age data, we now establish the periods of Early–Middle Triassic (246–227 Ma) and Late Triassic (222–209 Ma) as the ages of subduction and exhumation of the Palaeo-Tethyan oceanic crust, respectively. Thermodynamic modelling revealed that the eclogites record distinct HP–UHP peak metamorphic conditions of 23·0–25·5 kbar and 582–610 °C for the phengite–glaucophane eclogites, 24·0–25·5 kbar and 570–586 °C for the talc–glaucophane eclogites, 29·0–31·0 kbar and 675–712 °C for the dolomite–kyanite eclogites, and 30·0–32·0 kbar and 717–754 °C for the magnesite–kyanite eclogites. These P–T estimates and geochronological data indicate that the Palaeo-Tethys oceanic slab was subducted to different mantle depths from 75 km down to 95 km, forming distinct types of eclogite with a variety of peak eclogite-facies mineral assemblages. The eclogites consistently record clockwise metamorphic P–T–t paths characterized by a heating–compression prograde loop under a low geothermal gradient of 5–10 °C km–1, indicating the rapid subduction of cold oceanic crust at a rate of 4·5–6·0 km Ma–1, followed by isothermal or cooling–decompressive retrogression and exhumation at an average rate of 3·2–4·2 km Ma–1. The newly discovered eclogites of the CMOB with their signatures of ocean-crust subduction are petrologically, geochemically and geochronologically comparable with those of the LCSS, providing powerful support for the idea that a nearly 2000 km long HP–UHP eclogite belt extends from the northern Tibetan Plateau to the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, and that it represents the main boundary suture of the Palaeo-Tethyan domain. These results have far-reaching implications for the tectonic framework and complex metamorphic evolution of the Palaeo-Tethyan domain.

Beschreibung: SUMMARY Determining rock microstructure remains challenging, since a proper rock-physics model is needed to establish the relation between pore microstructure and elastic and transport properties. We present a model to estimate pore microstructure based on porosity, ultrasonic velocities and permeability, assuming that the microstructure consists on randomly oriented stiff equant pores and penny-shaped cracks. The stiff pore and crack porosity varying with differential pressure is estimated from the measured total porosity on the basis of a dual porosity model. The aspect ratio of pores and cracks and the crack density as a function of differential pressure are obtained from dry-rock P- and S-wave velocities, by using a differential effective medium model. These results are used to invert the pore radius from the matrix permeability by using a circular pore model. Above a crack density of 0.13, the crack radius can be estimated from permeability, and below that threshold, the radius is estimated from P-wave velocities, taking into account the wave dispersion induced by local fluid flow between pores and cracks. The approach is applied to experimental data for dry and saturated Fontainebleau sandstone and Chelmsford Granite.

Beschreibung: Multiple-layered coal seams widely exist in main coal mining areas of China. When these coal seams are exploited, the pillar mining method is always employed. This leads to many coal pillars left in the upper coal seams as a protective barrier. As a result, these residual pillars will not only cause the loss of coal resources but also could trigger environmental issues and a serious of mine disasters. A theoretical model was built to analyse the effect of the residual pillars. From the theoretical model, it was found that four stress concentration areas were formed by the upper residual coal pillars. To address the issues of the residual coal pillars, Datong Coal Mine Group has developed an innovative technology of the roof cutting with a chainsaw. A new protective coal seam mining method using chainsaw roof-cutting technology is introduced. A numerical model is constructed to analyse the mining pressure distribution law in working face within the lower layer coal seam. From the numerical simulation, the new protective layer mining method could reduce about 15.2% of the advancing stress, which contributes a lot to controlling the mining pressure within the lower layer. The field measurement showed that the hydraulic support utilised at the site was at lower pressure levels, which proves the new protective seam mining method can significantly reduce the working face pressure.

Beschreibung: Recent application of Fourier transform near infra-red spectroscopy (FT-NIRS) to predict age in fish otoliths has gained attention among fisheries managers as a potential alternative to costly production ageing of managed species. We assessed the age prediction capability of FT-NIRS scans in whole otoliths from red snapper, Lutjanus campechanus, collected from the US Gulf of Mexico and US Atlantic Ocean (South Atlantic). Otoliths were scanned with an FT-NIR spectrometer and resulting spectral signatures were regressed with traditionally estimated ages via partial least squares regression to produce calibration models, which were validated for predictive capability against test sets of otoliths. Calibration models successfully predicted age with R2 ranging 0.94–0.95, mean squared error ≤1.8 years, and bias 31 years were not well predicted, possibly due to light attenuation in the thickest otoliths. Our results suggest that FT-NIRS can improve efficiency in production ageing for fisheries management while maintaining data quality standards.

Beschreibung: Replacive symplectites (vermicular intergrowths of two or more minerals) are an important feature of layered igneous intrusions, recording evidence of late-stage reactions between interstitial liquid and crystals. They are common throughout the Layered Series of the 564 Ma Sept Iles layered intrusion in Quebec, Canada, and fall into three types: oxy-symplectites, ‘Type I’ symplectites, and ‘Type II’ symplectites. Oxy-symplectites are comprised of magnetite and orthopyroxene, nucleate on olivine primocrysts, and form via the reaction Olivine + O2 → Orthopyroxene + Magnetite; Type I symplectites (of which there are 3 distinct categories) are comprised of anorthitic plagioclase with pyroxene, amphibole, or olivine vermicules, grow from primocryst oxide grains, and replace primary plagioclase; and Type II symplectites (of which there are 2 distinct categories) are comprised of anorthitic plagioclase with orthopyroxene ± amphibole vermicules, grow from primocryst olivine grains, and replace primocryst plagioclase. Rare symplectites composed of biotite and plagioclase are also present. Symplectite growth occurred at 700-1030 °C with pressure constraints of 1-2 kbar. We propose that Type I symplectites, and some Type II symplectites, formed from interaction of primocrysts with residual Fe-rich liquid as a consequence of differential loss of an immiscible Si-rich liquid conjugate from the crystal mush. However, redistribution and concentration of hydrous fluids in incompletely solidified rock, or an increase in water activity of the interstitial melt, may be more plausible processes responsible for the formation of replacive symplectites comprising abundant hydrous mineral assemblages.

Beschreibung: This article investigates the diet of the snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) and its feeding intensity in the Barents Sea. Data show that snow crab has a diverse diet that includes almost all types of benthic invertebrates living in the Barents Sea. There are differences between the diets of females and males and of juveniles and adults. Juveniles and females typically occupy shallow areas with communities of bivalve molluscs, while males typically live deeper on slopes and depressions where polychaetes and crustaceans are the most abundant groups. Stomach contents were analysed to determine the species composition and frequency of occurrence of various benthic taxa. Consumption of food was estimated and compared with data from the Russian seas of the Pacific region. The total annual consumption of macrozoobenthos by snow crab was calculated in accordance with its current distribution in the Barents Sea. Snow crab consumes at least 30 000 tonnes of benthos annually, which amounts to 0.1–0.2% of the total macrozoobenthic biomass in the investigated area. The population of snow crab causes the largest impact on the benthic communities in the northeastern part of the Barents Sea and near the south side of the Novaya Zemlya archipelago.

Beschreibung: Until the late 19th century, extensive beds of flat oyster Ostrea edulis populated the Central North Sea, which have vanished after intensive fisheries. At present, various initiatives are being carried out to investigate the potential to restore this former key species in the area. This historical ecological study contributes by delineating the former oyster bed area and through an assessment of its limits against known gradients in the North Sea. Extensive data from historical maps, texts, and ship-based surveys were used to synthesize our knowledge on the former beds. It was revealed that the area with oyster beds covered ∼6.2% of the total North Sea bottom, with a delineation that could partly be explained by hydrodynamic and temperature gradients. The position and extent of the area are notably different from the area that is used in recent feasibility studies on the restoration of North Sea oyster beds. The offshore oysters lived on muddy sand in relatively cold conditions, and there are several indications that their reproductive rate was low. The apparent disappearance of cold water adapted flat oysters will challenge restoration projects. This study provides indispensable information for the future restoration of flat oyster beds in the North Sea.

Beschreibung: While the kinematics of Anatolia plate and the North Anatolian Fault System (NAFS) has been studied extensively, the slip rate and locking depth along the NAFS are usually assumed constant in the analyses due to the lack of sufficient data. This is also partly due to the reasonably good fit of Euler small circle and partly due to the lack of spatial resolution of observations to determine slip rates independently from locking depths. On the other hand, recent geodetic studies show a contrast for locking depth between Marmara and other parts of the NAFS, implying a non-uniform locking depth across the NAFS. In this study, we analyse new GPS data and homogenously combine available data sets covering the eastern part of the NAFS to form the most complete data set. In particular, we incorporate the first results of Turkish Real-Time Kinematic GPS Network (CORS-TR) into our data set. A detailed analysis of three profiles within the NAFS reveals an increase of locking depth in the middle profile to 19.1 ± 3.4 km from 11.9 ± 3.5 km in the easternmost profile while the slip rate is nearly constant (20–22 mm yr –1 ), which implies a variation of strain rate of ~100 nanostrain yr –1 . Assuming a constant locking depth throughout whole NAFS gives an average locking depth of 14.3 ± 1.7 km. Our best estimates of slip rates in block modelling which takes the variation of locking depths into account are in the range between 22.5 and 22.8 mm yr –1 over eastern part of the NAFS.

Beschreibung: Seismic waves sensitive to the outermost part of the Earth's liquid core seem to be affected by a stably stratified layer at the core–mantle boundary. Such a layer could have an observable signature in both long-term and short-term variations of the magnetic field of the Earth, which are used to probe the flow at the top of the core. Indeed, with the recent SWARM mission, it seems reasonable to be able to identify waves propagating in the core with period of several months, which may play an important role in the large-scale dynamics. In this paper, we characterize the influence of a stratified layer at the top of the core on deep quasi-geostrophic (Rossby) waves. We compute numerically the quasi-geostrophic eigenmodes of a rapidly rotating spherical shell, with a stably stratified layer near the outer boundary. Two simple models of stratification are taken into account, which are scaled with commonly adopted values of the Brunt–Väisälä frequency in the Earth's core. In the absence of magnetic field, we find that both azimuthal wavelength and frequency of the eigenmodes control their penetration into the stratified layer: the higher the phase speed, the higher the permeability of the stratified layer to the wave motion. We also show that the theory developed by Takehiro & Lister for thermal convection extends to the whole family of Rossby waves in the core. Adding a magnetic field, the penetrative behaviour of the quasi-geostrophic modes (the so-called fast branch) is insensitive to the imposed magnetic field and only weakly sensitive to the precise shape of the stratification. Based on these results, the large-scale and high-frequency modes (1–2 month periods) may be detectable in the geomagnetic data measured at the Earth's surface, especially in the equatorial area where the modes can be trapped.

Beschreibung: We prove a spectral flow formula for one-parameter families of Hamiltonian systems under homoclinic boundary conditions, which relates the spectral flow to the relative Maslov index of a pair of curves of Lagrangians induced by the stable and unstable subspaces, respectively. Finally, we deduce sufficient conditions for bifurcation of homoclinic trajectories of one-parameter families of non-autonomous Hamiltonian vector fields.

Beschreibung: We consider the Schur–Horn problem for normal operators in von Neumann algebras, which is the problem of characterizing the possible diagonal values of a given normal operator based on its spectral data. For normal matrices, this problem is well known to be extremely difficult, and in fact, it remains open for matrices of size greater than $3$ . We show that the infinite-dimensional version of this problem is more tractable, and establish approximate solutions for normal operators in von Neumann factors of type I $_\infty$ , II, and III. A key result is an approximation theorem that can be seen as an approximate multivariate analogue of Kadison's Carpenter Theorem.

Beschreibung: We study the rate of convergence to zero of the tail entropy of $C^\infty$ maps. We give an upper bound of this rate in terms of the growth in $k$ of the derivative of order $k$ and give examples showing the optimality of the established rate of convergence. We also consider the case of multimodal maps of the interval. Finally, we prove that homoclinic tangencies give rise to $C^r$ $(r\geqslant 2)$ robustly non- $h$ -expansive dynamical systems.

Beschreibung: Let ${{\mathscr {C}}}^0_{{{\mathfrak {g}}}}$ be the category of finite-dimensional integrable modules over the quantum affine algebra $U_{q}'({{\mathfrak {g}}})$ and let $R^{A_\infty }{\mbox {-}\mathrm {gmod}}$ denote the category of finite-dimensional graded modules over the quiver Hecke algebra of type $A_{\infty }$ . In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the categories ${{\mathscr {C}}}^0_{A_{N-1}^{(1)}}$ and ${{\mathscr {C}}}^0_{A_{N-1}^{(2)}}$ by constructing the generalized quantum affine Schur–Weyl duality functors ${\mathcal {F}}^{(t)}$ from $R^{A_\infty }{\mbox {-}\mathrm {gmod}}$ to ${{\mathscr {C}}}^0_{A_{N-1}^{(t)}}\ (t=1,2)$ .

Beschreibung: We present new constructions of complex and $p$ -adic Darmon points on elliptic curves over base fields of arbitrary signature. We conjecture that these points are global and present numerical evidence to support our conjecture.

Beschreibung: The attenuation and velocity dispersion of sonic waves contain valuable information on the mechanical and hydraulic properties of the probed medium. An inherent complication arising in the interpretation of corresponding measurements is, however, that there are multiple physical mechanisms contributing to the energy dissipation and that the relative importance of the various contributions is difficult to unravel. To address this problem for the practically relevant case of terrestrial alluvial sediments, we analyse the attenuation and velocity dispersion characteristics of broad-band multifrequency sonic logs with dominant source frequencies ranging between 1 and 30 kHz. To adequately compensate for the effects of geometrical spreading, which is critical for reliable attenuation estimates, we simulate our experimental setup using a correspondingly targeted numerical solution of the poroelastic equations. After having applied the thus inferred corrections, the broad-band sonic log data set, in conjunction with a comprehensive suite of complementary logging data, allows for assessing the relative importance of a range of pertinent attenuation mechanisms. In doing so, we focus on the effects of wave-induced fluid flow over a wide range of scales. Our results indicate that the levels of attenuation due to the presence of mesoscopic heterogeneities in unconsolidated clastic sediments fully saturated with water are expected to be largely negligible. Conversely, Monte-Carlo-type inversions indicate that Biot's classical model permits to explain most of the considered data. Refinements with regard to the fitting of the observed attenuation and velocity dispersion characteristics are locally provided by accounting for energy dissipation at the microscopic scale, although the nature of the underlying physical mechanism remains speculative.

Beschreibung: Individualized treatment rules recommend treatments on the basis of individual patient characteristics. A high-quality treatment rule can produce better patient outcomes, lower costs and less treatment burden. If a treatment rule learned from data is to be used to inform clinical practice or provide scientific insight, it is crucial that it be interpretable; clinicians may be unwilling to implement models they do not understand, and black-box models may not be useful for guiding future research. The canonical example of an interpretable prediction model is a decision tree. We propose a method for estimating an optimal individualized treatment rule within the class of rules that are representable as decision trees. The class of rules we consider is interpretable but expressive. A novel feature of this problem is that the learning task is unsupervised, as the optimal treatment for each patient is unknown and must be estimated. The proposed method applies to both categorical and continuous treatments and produces favourable marginal mean outcomes in simulation experiments. We illustrate it using data from a study of major depressive disorder.

Beschreibung: Sufficient dimension reduction in regression aims to reduce the predictor dimension by replacing the original predictors with some set of linear combinations of them without loss of information. Numerous dimension reduction methods have been developed based on this paradigm. However, little effort has been devoted to diagnostic studies within the context of dimension reduction. In this paper we introduce methods to check goodness-of-fit for a given dimension reduction subspace. The key idea is to extend the so-called distance correlation to measure the conditional dependence relationship between the covariates and the response given a reduction subspace. Our methods require minimal assumptions, which are usually much less restrictive than the conditions needed to justify the original methods. Asymptotic properties of the test statistic are studied. Numerical examples demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Beschreibung: We propose a geometric framework to assess sensitivity of Bayesian procedures to modelling assumptions based on the nonparametric Fisher–Rao metric. While the framework is general, the focus of this article is on assessing local and global robustness in Bayesian procedures with respect to perturbations of the likelihood and prior, and on the identification of influential observations. The approach is based on a square-root representation of densities, which enables analytical computation of geodesic paths and distances, facilitating the definition of naturally calibrated local and global discrepancy measures. An important feature of our approach is the definition of a geometric $\epsilon$ -contamination class of sampling distributions and priors via intrinsic analysis on the space of probability density functions. We demonstrate the applicability of our framework to generalized mixed-effects models and to directional and shape data.

Beschreibung: With the discovery of an increasing number of causal genes for complex human disorders, it is crucial to assess the genetic risk of disease onset for individuals who are carriers of these causal mutations and to compare the distribution of the age-at-onset for such individuals with the distribution for noncarriers. In many genetic epidemiological studies that aim to estimate causal gene effect on disease, the age-at-onset of disease is subject to censoring. In addition, the mutation carrier or noncarrier status of some individuals may be unknown, due to the high cost of in-person ascertainment by collecting DNA samples or because of the death of older individuals. Instead, the probability of such individuals’ mutation status can be obtained from various other sources. When mutation status is missing, the available data take the form of censored mixture data. Recently, various methods have been proposed for risk estimation using such data, but none is efficient for estimating a nonparametric distribution. We propose a fully efficient sieve maximum likelihood estimation method, in which we estimate the logarithm of the hazard ratio between genetic mutation groups using B-splines, while applying nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation to the reference baseline hazard function. Our estimator can be calculated via an expectation-maximization algorithm which is much faster than existing methods. We show that our estimator is consistent and semiparametrically efficient and establish its asymptotic distribution. Simulation studies demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed method, which is used to estimate the distribution of the age-at-onset of Parkinson's disease for carriers of mutations in the leucine-rich repeat kinase 2, LRRK2, gene.

Beschreibung: Smoothing splines provide flexible nonparametric regression estimators. However, the high computational cost of smoothing splines for large datasets has hindered their wide application. In this article, we develop a new method, named adaptive basis sampling, for efficient computation of smoothing splines in super-large samples. Except for the univariate case where the Reinsch algorithm is applicable, a smoothing spline for a regression problem with sample size n can be expressed as a linear combination of n basis functions and its computational complexity is generally O ( n 3 ). We achieve a more scalable computation in the multivariate case by evaluating the smoothing spline using a smaller set of basis functions, obtained by an adaptive sampling scheme that uses values of the response variable. Our asymptotic analysis shows that smoothing splines computed via adaptive basis sampling converge to the true function at the same rate as full basis smoothing splines. Using simulation studies and a large-scale deep earth core-mantle boundary imaging study, we show that the proposed method outperforms a sampling method that does not use the values of response variables.

Beschreibung: We propose tests for nonlinear serial dependence in time series under the null hypothesis of general linear dependence, in contrast to the more widely studied null hypothesis of independence. The approach is based on combining an entropy dependence metric, which possesses many desirable properties and is used as a test statistic, with a suitable extension of surrogate data methods, a class of Monte Carlo distribution-free tests for nonlinearity, and a smoothed sieve bootstrap scheme. We show how, in the same way as the autocorrelation function is used for linear models, our tests can in principle be employed to detect the lags at which a significant nonlinear relationship is present. We prove the asymptotic validity of the proposed procedures and the corresponding inferences. The small-sample performance of the tests in terms of power and size is assessed through a simulation study. Applications to real datasets of different kinds are also presented.

Beschreibung: Contamination caused by outliers is inevitable in data analysis, and robust statistical methods are often needed. In this paper we develop a new approach for robust data analysis on the basis of scoring rules. A scoring rule is a discrepancy measure to assess the quality of probabilistic forecasts. We propose a simple method of estimating not only parameters in the statistical model but also the contamination ratio, i.e., the ratio of outliers. The outliers are detected based on the estimated contamination ratio. For this purpose, we use scoring rules with extended statistical models called unnormalized models. Regression problems are also considered. We study complex heterogeneous contamination wherein the contamination ratio in a response variable may depend on covariate variables, and propose a simple method to estimate a robust regression function and expected contamination ratio. Simulation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Beschreibung: The sample covariance matrix, which is well known to be highly nonrobust, plays a central role in many classical multivariate statistical methods. A popular way of making such multivariate methods more robust is to replace the sample covariance matrix with some robust scatter matrix. The aim of this paper is to point out that multivariate methods often require that certain properties of the covariance matrix hold also for the robust scatter matrix in order for the corresponding robust plug-in method to be a valid approach, but that not all scatter matrices possess the desired properties. Plug-in methods for independent components analysis, observational regression and graphical modelling are considered in more detail. For each case, it is shown that replacing the sample covariance matrix with a symmetrized robust scatter matrix yields a valid robust multivariate procedure.

Beschreibung: So-called big data are likely to have complex structure, in particular implying that estimates of precision obtained by applying standard statistical procedures are likely to be misleading, even if the point estimates of parameters themselves may be reasonably satisfactory. While this possibility is best explored in the context of each special case, here we outline a fairly general representation of the accretion of error in large systems and explore the possible implications for the estimation of regression coefficients. The discussion raises issues broadly parallel to the distinction between short-range and long-range dependence in time series theory.

Beschreibung: This paper extends the classical two-regime threshold autoregressive model by introducing hysteresis to its regime-switching structure, which leads to a new model: the hysteretic autoregressive model. The proposed model enjoys the piecewise linear structure of a threshold model but has a more flexible regime switching mechanism. A sufficient condition is given for geometric ergodicity. Conditional least squares estimation is discussed, and the asymptotic distributions of its estimators and information criteria for model selection are derived. Simulation results and an example support the model.

Beschreibung: This paper points out an error in Davidov and Iliopoulos's ( Biometrika 100 , 778–80) proof of convergence of an iterative algorithm for the proportional likelihood ratio model. It is shown that the iterative algorithm increases the likelihood in each iteration and converges under mild additional conditions when the odds ratio function is bounded.

Beschreibung: Hydrocarbon reservoir pressure depletion leads to stress changes inside the reservoir and ground deformation which is registered at the surface as subsidence. As reservoirs are often overlain by layers of rocksalt (or other evaporites), which are materials that flow so as to relax stresses inside them, there is the potential for time-varying surface subsidence. This work focuses on understanding the macroscopic mechanisms that lead to rocksalt flow-induced ground displacements. A Finite Element Model is used for this purpose in which the rocksalt layer is represented by a viscoelastic Maxwell material. Two distinct mechanisms that lead to displacement are observed. These are active during different stages of the deformation and have different timescales associated with them. An important observation is that the timescale for deformation that is measured at the ground surface is not equal to the timescale for deformation of a viscoelastic material element, but can be many times larger than that. The sensitivity of the response to the thickness and location of the rocksalt layer is also presented. Conclusions are drawn which allow for the relative importance of the presence of the rocksalt layer to be assessed and for a framework for understanding time-dependent subsidence above producing hydrocarbon reservoirs to be developed. Finally the changes in stress distribution around a producing reservoir are also briefly discussed.

Beschreibung: Choosing the number of components in a finite mixture model is a challenging task. In this article, we study the behaviour of information criteria for selecting the mixture order, based on either the observed likelihood or the complete likelihood including component labels. We propose a new observed likelihood criterion called aic mix , which is shown to be order consistent. We further show that when there is a nontrivial level of classification uncertainty in the true model, complete likelihood criteria asymptotically underestimate the true number of components. A simulation study illustrates the potentially poor finite-sample performance of complete likelihood criteria, while aic mix and the Bayesian information criterion perform strongly regardless of the level of classification uncertainty.

Beschreibung: Outlier detection is an integral component of statistical modelling and estimation. For high-dimensional data, classical methods based on the Mahalanobis distance are usually not applicable. We propose an outlier detection procedure that replaces the classical minimum covariance determinant estimator with a high-breakdown minimum diagonal product estimator. The cut-off value is obtained from the asymptotic distribution of the distance, which enables us to control the Type I error and deliver robust outlier detection. Simulation studies show that the proposed method behaves well for high-dimensional data.

Beschreibung: This paper adopts a nonparametric Bayesian approach to testing whether a function is monotone. Two new families of tests are constructed. The first uses constrained smoothing splines with a hierarchical stochastic-process prior that explicitly controls the prior probability of monotonicity. The second uses regression splines together with two proposals for the prior over the regression coefficients. Via simulation, the finite-sample performance of the tests is shown to improve upon existing frequentist and Bayesian methods. The asymptotic properties of the Bayes factor for comparing monotone versus nonmonotone regression functions in a Gaussian model are also studied. Our results significantly extend those currently available, which chiefly focus on determining the dimension of a parametric linear model.

Beschreibung: The paper develops hierarchical empirical Bayes and benchmarked hierarchical empirical Bayes estimators of positive small area means under multiplicative models. The usual benchmarking requirement is that the small area estimates, when aggregated, should equal the direct estimates for the larger geographical areas. However, while estimating positive small area parameters, the conventional squared error or weighted squared error loss subject to the usual benchmark constraint may not produce positive estimators, so it is necessary to seek other loss functions. We consider a multiplicative model for the original data for estimating positive small area means, and suggest a variant of the Kullback–Leibler divergence as a loss function. The prediction errors of the suggested hierarchical empirical Bayes estimators are investigated asymptotically, and their second-order unbiased estimators are provided. Bootstrapped estimators of these prediction errors for both hierarchical empirical Bayes and benchmarked hierarchical empirical Bayes estimators are also given. The performance of the suggested procedures is investigated through simulation as well as with an example.

Beschreibung: Odds ratios can be estimated in case-control studies using standard logistic regression, ignoring the outcome-dependent sampling. In this paper we discuss an analogous result for treatment effects on the treated in matched cohort studies. Specifically, in studies where a sample of treated subjects is observed along with a separate sample of possibly matched controls, we show that efficient and doubly robust estimators of effects on the treated are computationally equivalent to standard estimators, which ignore the matching and exposure-based sampling. This is not the case for general average effects. We also show that matched cohort studies are often more efficient than random sampling for estimating effects on the treated, and derive the optimal number of matches for a given set of matching variables. We illustrate our results via simulation and in a matched cohort study of the effect of hysterectomy on the risk of cardiovascular disease.

Beschreibung: Current status data occur in contexts including demographic studies and tumorigenicity experiments. In such cases, each subject is observed only once and the failure time of interest is either left- or right-censored (Kalbfleisch & Prentice, 2002). Many methods have been developed for the analysis of such data (Huang, 1996; Sun, 2006), most of which assume that the failure time and the observation time are independent completely or given covariates. In this paper, we present a sieve maximum likelihood approach for current status data when independence does not hold. A copula model and monotone I-splines are used and the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established. In particular, the estimated regression parameters are shown to be semiparametrically efficient. An illustrative example is provided.

Beschreibung: We investigate spatiotemporal variations of the crustal stress field orientation along the rupture zones of the 1999 August Izmit M w 7.4 and November Düzce M w 7.1 earthquakes at the North Anatolian Fault zone (NAFZ) in NW Turkey. Our primary focus is to elaborate on the relation between the state of the crustal stress field and distinct seismotectonic features as well as variations of coseismic slip within the seismogenic layer of the crust. To achieve this, we compile an extensive data base of hypocentres and first-motion polarities including a newly derived local hypocentre catalogue extending from 2 yr prior (1997) to 2 yr after (2001) the Izmit and Düzce main shocks. This combined data set allows studying spatial and temporal variations of stress field orientation along distinct fault segments for the pre- and post-seimic phase of the two large earthquakes in detail. Furthermore, the occurrence of two M  〉 7 earthquakes in rapid succession gives the unique opportunity to analyse the 87-d-long ‘inter-seismic phase’ between them. We use the MOTSI (first MOTion polarity Stress Inversion) procedure directly inverting first-motion polarities to study the stress field evolution of nine distinct segments. In particular, this allows to determine the stress tensor also for the pre- and post-seismic phases when no stable single-event focal mechanisms can be determined. We observe significantly different stress field orientations along the combined 200-km-long rupture in accordance with lateral variations of coseismic slip and seismotectonic setting. Distinct vertical linear segments of the NAFZ show either pure-strike slip behaviour or transtensional and normal faulting if located near pull-apart basins. Pull-apart structures such as the Akyazi and Düzce basins show a predominant normal faulting behaviour along the NAFZ and reflect clearly different characteristic from neighbouring strike-slip segments. Substantial lateral stress field heterogeneity following the two main shocks is observed that declines with time towards the post-seismic period that rather reflects the regional right-lateral strike-slip stress field.

Beschreibung: The Taupo Volcanic Zone (TVZ) is one of the world's most productive regions of rhyolitic volcanism and contains the highly active Okataina Volcanic Centre (OVC). Within the TVZ, intra-arc extension is expressed as normal faulting within a zone known as the Taupo Rift. The OVC is located within a complex part of the rift, where volcanism and deformation is considered influenced by rift structure and kinematics. There has been significant research on the structural, volcanic and geophysical properties of the rift and OVC, but less focus on deformation using geodetic data. The limited studies that have utilized geodetic data do not clearly resolve the distribution of deformation and strain rates within the rift and OVC. This is essential to ensure that deformation signals from volcanic processes at the OVC are correctly identified and distinguished from those related to regional tectonic or local hydrothermal processes within the rift. In this paper, we present a picture of contemporary deformation at the OVC and within the surrounding rift in detail, using existing and new GPS campaign and continuous GPS (cGPS) data collected between 1998 and 2011. The results show a highly heterogeneous deformation and strain rate field (both extension and shortening) through the study area, partitioned into different parts of the rift. Our results agree well with earlier geodetic studies, as well as identify new features, but some deformation patterns conflict with long-term geological observations. In the OVC, we observe a locally rotated horizontal velocity field, significant vertical deformation and variable strain rates across the caldera. In the Tarawera Rift, we identify elevated extension and shear rates, which may have significant implications for volcanism there. A shortening pattern is identified through the central rift, which is unexpected in an intra-arc rifting environment. We attempt to explain the source/s of shortening and extension and discuss their implications for geodetic monitoring efforts in the OVC.

Beschreibung: We introduce a new framework for the analysis of the stability of solitons for the one-dimensional Gross–Pitaevskii equation. In particular, we establish the asymptotic stability of the black soliton with zero speed.

Beschreibung: Let $k$ and $n$ be positive even integers. For a cuspidal Hecke eigenform $h$ in the Kohnen plus space of weight $k-n/2+1/2$ for $\varGamma _0(4),$ let $I_n(h)$ be the Duke–Imamo $\bar {{\text {g}}}$ lu–Ikeda lift of $h$ in the space of cusp forms of weight $k$ for ${\rm Sp}_n({{\bf{Z}}}),$ and $f$ be the primitive form of weight $2k-n$ for ${\rm SL}_2({{\bf{Z}}})$ corresponding to $h$ under the Shimura correspondence. We then express the ratio $\displaystyle {\langle I_n(h), I_n(h) \rangle / \langle h, h \rangle }$ of the period of $I_n(h)$ to that of $h$ in terms of special values of certain $L$ -functions of $f$ . This proves the conjecture proposed by Ikeda concerning the period of the Duke–Imamo $\bar {{\text {g}}}$ lu–Ikeda lift.

Beschreibung: The Piton de la Fournaise basaltic volcano, on La Réunion Island in the western Indian Ocean, is one of the most active volcanoes in the world. This volcano is classically considered as the surface expression of an upwelling mantle plume and its activity is continuously monitored, providing detailed information on its superficial dynamics and on the edifice structure. Deeper crustal and upper mantle structure under La Réunion Island is surprisingly poorly constrained, motivating this study. We used receiver function techniques to determine a shear wave velocity profile through the crust and uppermost mantle beneath La Réunion, but also at other seismic stations located on the hotspot track, to investigate the plume and lithosphere interaction and its evolution through time. Receiver functions (RFs) were computed at permanent broad-band seismic stations from the GEOSCOPE network (on La Réunion and Rodrigues), at IRIS stations MRIV and DGAR installed on Mauritius and Diego Garcia islands, and at the GEOFON stations KAAM and HMDM on the Maldives. We performed non-linear inversions of RFs through modelling of P -to- S conversions at various crustal and upper mantle interfaces. Joint inversion of RF and surface wave dispersion data suggests a much deeper Mohorovičić discontinuity (Moho) beneath Mauritius (~21 km) compared to La Réunion (~12 km). A magmatic underplated body may be present under La Réunion as a thin layer (≤3 km thick), as suggested by a previous seismic refraction study, and as a much thicker layer beneath other stations located on the hotspot track, suggesting that underplating is an important process resulting from the plume–lithosphere interaction. We find evidence for a strikingly low velocity layer starting at about 33 km depth beneath La Réunion that we interpret as a zone of partial melt beneath the active volcano. We finally observe low velocities below 70 km beneath La Réunion and below 50 km beneath Mauritius that could represent the base of the oceanic lithosphere.

Beschreibung: We study the homological finiteness properties ${\rm FP}_m$ of wreath products $\Gamma = H \wr _X G$ . We show that, when $H$ has infinite abelianization, $\Gamma$ is of type ${\rm FP}_m$ if and only if both $G$ and $H$ have type ${\rm FP}_m$ and $G$ acts (diagonally) on $X^i$ with stabilizers of type ${\rm FP}_{m-i}$ and with finitely many orbits for all $1 \leq i \leq m$ . If furthermore $H$ is torsion-free, we give a criterion for $\Gamma$ to be Bredon- ${\rm FP}_m$ with respect to the class of finite subgroups of $\Gamma$ . Finally, when $H$ has infinite abelianization and $\chi : \Gamma \to \mathbb {R}$ is a non-zero homomorphism with $\chi (H) = 0$ , we classify when $[\chi ]$ belongs to the Bieri–Neumann–Strebel–Renz invariant $\Sigma ^m(\Gamma , \mathbb {Z})$ .

Beschreibung: We investigate the logarithmic bundles associated to arrangements of hypersurfaces with a fixed degree in a smooth projective variety. We then specialize to the case when the variety is a quadric hypersurface and a multiprojective space to prove a Torelli-type theorem in some cases.

Beschreibung: We study the higher differentiability of the very weak solution of the Cauchy–Dirichlet problem associated to the linear parabolic system with Hölder continuous coefficients and L 1 right-hand side of the form $$\begin{align*} \dfrac{\partial u}{\partial t} -{\rm div}(A(x,t)Du) & = \mu \quad \mbox{in } \Omega \,{\times}\,]0, T[,\\ u & = 0 \quad \mbox{on } \partial \Omega \,{\times}\,]0, T[,\\ u & = 0 \quad \mbox{on } \Omega \times \{ 0\}. \end{align*}$$

Beschreibung: We describe a multihomogeneity theory for source-parameter estimation of potential fields. Similar to what happens for random source models, where the monofractal scaling-law has been generalized into a multifractal law, we propose to generalize the homogeneity law into a multihomogeneity law. This allows a theoretically correct approach to study real-world potential fields, which are inhomogeneous and so do not show scale invariance, except in the asymptotic regions (very near to or very far from their sources). Since the scaling properties of inhomogeneous fields change with the scale of observation, we show that they may be better studied at a set of scales than at a single scale and that a multihomogeneous model is needed to explain its complex scaling behaviour. In order to perform this task, we first introduce fractional-degree homogeneous fields, to show that: (i) homogeneous potential fields may have fractional or integer degree; (ii) the source-distributions for a fractional-degree are not confined in a bounded region, similarly to some integer-degree models, such as the infinite line mass and (iii) differently from the integer-degree case, the fractional-degree source distributions are no longer uniform density functions. Using this enlarged set of homogeneous fields, real-world anomaly fields are studied at different scales, by a simple search, at any local window W , for the best homogeneous field of either integer or fractional-degree, this yielding a multiscale set of local homogeneity-degrees and depth estimations which we call multihomogeneous model. It is so defined a new technique of source parameter estimation (Multi-HOmogeneity Depth Estimation, MHODE), permitting retrieval of the source parameters of complex sources. We test the method with inhomogeneous fields of finite sources, such as faults or cylinders, and show its effectiveness also in a real-case example. These applications show the usefulness of the new concepts, multihomogeneity and fractional homogeneity-degree, to obtain valid estimates of the source parameters in a consistent theoretical framework, so overcoming the limitations imposed by global-homogeneity to widespread methods, such as Euler deconvolution.

Beschreibung: In this paper, two separate but related goals are tackled. The first one is to demonstrate that in some saturated rock textures the non-linear behaviour of induced polarization (IP) and the violation of Ohm's law not only are real phenomena, but they can also be satisfactorily predicted by a suitable physical-mathematical model, which is our second goal. This model is based on Fick's second law. As the model links the specific dependence of resistivity and chargeability of a laboratory sample to the injected current and this in turn to its pore size distribution, it is able to predict pore size distribution from laboratory measurements, in good agreement with mercury injection capillary pressure test results. This fact opens up the possibility for hydrogeophysical applications on a macro scale. Mathematical modelling shows that the chargeability acquired in the field under normal conditions, that is at low current, will always be very small and approximately proportional to the applied current. A suitable field test site for demonstrating the possible reliance of both resistivity and chargeability on current was selected and a specific measuring strategy was established. Two data sets were acquired using different injected current strengths, while keeping the charging time constant. Observed variations of resistivity and chargeability are in agreement with those predicted by the mathematical model. These field test data should however be considered preliminary. If confirmed by further evidence, these facts may lead to changing the procedure of acquiring field measurements in future, and perhaps may encourage the design and building of a new specific geo-resistivity meter. This paper also shows that the well-known Marshall and Madden's equations based on Fick's law cannot be solved without specific boundary conditions.

Beschreibung: Successful implementation of Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) requires appropriate action as informed by reference points in an ecosystem context. Thresholds in the response of ecological indicators to system drivers have been suggested as reference points for EBFM, though the management performance of these indicators and possible values for their reference points have not been widely evaluated. We used Management Strategy Evaluation to test the performance of control rules that used ecological indicators to adjust the advice from single-species stock assessments, using the Georges Bank finfish fishery as a case study. We compare the performance of control rules that used ecological indicators to that of single-species F MSY control rules when the system dynamics were governed by the same multispecies population model. Control rules that used indicator-based reference points were able to perform better against catch and biodiversity objectives than when harvests were based on single-species advice alone. Indicators and values for reference points associated with good performance varied depending on the management objective. We quantified tradeoffs between total catch, biodiversity, and interannual variability in catch, noting that it was possible in some instances to achieve higher than average biodiversity while maintaining high catches using indicator-based control rules. While improved performance was noted using ecological indicators, outcomes were variable, and the gains in performance obtained may be similar to alternative methods of implementing precaution in single-species fishery control rules.

Beschreibung: Climate change and fishing can have major impacts on the distribution of natural marine resources. Climate change alters the distribution of suitable habitat, forcing organisms to shift their range or attempt to survive under suboptimal conditions. Fishing reduces the abundance of marine populations and truncates their age structure leading to range contractions or shifts. Along the east coast of the United States, there have been major changes in fish populations due to the impacts of fishing and subsequent regulations, as well as changes in the climate. Black sea bass, scup, summer flounder, and winter flounder are important commercial and recreational species, which utilize inshore and offshore waters on the northeast shelf. We examined the distributions of the four species with the Northeast Fisheries Science Center trawl surveys to determine if the along-shelf centres of biomass had changed over time and if the changes were attributed to changes in temperature or fishing pressure through changes in abundance and length structure. Black sea bass, scup, and summer flounder exhibited significant poleward shifts in distributions in at least one season while the Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Bight stock of winter flounder did not shift. Generalized additive modelling indicated that the changes in the centres of biomass for black sea bass and scup in spring were related to climate, while the change in the distribution of summer flounder was largely attributed to a decrease in fishing pressure and an expansion of the length–age structure. While the changes in ocean temperatures will have major impacts on the distribution of marine taxa, the effects of fishing can be of equivalent magnitude and on a more immediate time scale. It is important for management to take all factors into consideration when developing regulations for natural marine resources.

Beschreibung: Many snow crab fisheries have fluctuated widely over time in a quasi-cyclic way due to highly variable recruitment. The causes of this variability are still debated. Bottom-up processes related to climate variability may strongly affect growth and survival during early life, whereas top-down predator effects may be a major source of juvenile mortality. Moreover, intrinsic density-dependent processes, which have received much less attention, are hypothetically responsible for the cycles in recruitment. This study explored how climate, larval production, intercohort cannibalism and groundfish predation may have affected recruitment of early juvenile snow crab in the northwest Gulf of St Lawrence (eastern Canada) over a period of 23 years. Abundance of early juvenile snow crabs (2.5–22.9 mm in carapace width), representing the first 3 years of benthic life, came from an annual trawl survey and was used to determine cohort strength. Analyses revealed a cyclic pattern in abundance of 0 + crabs that may arise from cohort resonant effects. This pattern consisted of three recruitment pulses but was reduced to two pulses by age 2 + , while the interannual variability of cohort strength was dampened. This reconfiguration of the earliest recruitment pattern was dictated primarily by bottom water temperature and cannibalism, which progressively overruled the pre-settlement factors of larval production and surface water temperature that best explained abundance of 0 + crabs. The results strongly suggest that bottom-up and density-dependent processes prevail over top-down control in setting the long-term trends and higher-frequency oscillations of snow crab early recruitment patterns.

Beschreibung: Fisheries biology encompasses a tremendous diversity of research questions, methods, and models. Many sub-fields use observational or experimental data to make inference about biological characteristics that are not directly observed (called "latent states"), such as heritability of phenotypic traits, habitat suitability, and population densities to name a few. Latent states will generally cause model residuals to be correlated, violating the assumption of statistical independence made in many statistical modelling approaches. In this exposition, we argue that mixed-effect modelling (i) is an important and generic solution to non-independence caused by latent states; (ii) provides a unifying framework for disparate statistical methods such as time-series, spatial, and individual-based models; and (iii) is increasingly practical to implement and customize for problem-specific models. We proceed by summarizing the distinctions between fixed and random effects, reviewing a generic approach for parameter estimation, and distinguishing general categories of non-linear mixed-effect models. We then provide four worked examples, including state-space, spatial, individual-level variability, and quantitative genetics applications (with working code for each), while providing comparison with conventional fixed-effect implementations. We conclude by summarizing directions for future research in this important framework for modelling and statistical analysis in fisheries biology.

Beschreibung: While the impact of environmental forcing on recruitment variability in marine populations remains largely elusive, studies spanning large spatial areas and many stocks are able to identify patterns common to different regions and species. In this study, we investigate the effects of the environment on the residuals of a Ricker stock–recruitment (SR) model, used as a proxy of prerecruits' survival, of 18 assessed stocks in the Baltic and North Seas. A probabilistic principal components (PCs) analysis permits the identification of groups of stocks with shared variability in the prerecruits' survival, most notably a group of pelagics in the Baltic Sea and a group composed of gadoids and herring in the North Sea. The first two PCs generally grouped the stocks according to their localizations: the North Sea, the Kattegat–Western Baltic, and the Baltic Sea. This suggests the importance of the local environmental variability on the recruitment strength. Hence, the prerecruits' survival variability is studied according to geographically disaggregated and potentially impacting abiotic or biotic variables. Time series (1990–2009) of nine environmental variables consistent with the spawning locations and season for each stock were extracted from a physical–biogeochemical model to evaluate their ability to explain the survival of prerecruits. Environmental variables explained 〉70% of the survival variability for eight stocks. The variables water current, salinity, temperature, and biomass of other fish stocks are regularly significant in the models. This study shows the importance of the local environment on the dynamics of SR. The results provide evidence of the necessity of including environmental variables in stock assessment for a realistic and efficient management of fisheries.

Beschreibung: Ecosystem-based fisheries management seeks to consider trade-offs among management objectives for interacting species, such as those that arise through predator–prey linkages. In particular, fisheries-targeting forage fish (small and abundant pelagic fish) might have a detrimental effect on fisheries-targeting predators that consume them. However, complexities in ecological interactions might dampen, negate, or even reverse this trade-off, because small pelagic fish can be important predators on egg stages of piscivorous fish. Further, the strength of this trade-off might depend on the extent to which piscivorous fish targeted by fisheries regulate forage species productivity. Here, we developed a novel delay-differential bioeconomic model of predator–prey and fishing dynamics to quantify how much egg predation or weak top-town control affects the strength of trade-off between forage and piscivore fisheries, and to measure how ecological interactions dictate policies that maximize steady-state profits. We parameterized the model based on ecological and economic data from the North Sea Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua ) and Atlantic herring ( Clupea harengus ). The optimal policy was very sensitive to the ecological interactions (either egg predation or weak top-down control of forage by predators) at relatively low forage prices but was less sensitive at high forage fish prices. However, the optimal equilibrium harvest rates on forage and piscivores were not substantially different from what might be derived through analyses that did not consider species interactions. Applying the optimal multispecies policy would produce substantial losses (〉25%) in profits in the piscivore fishery, and the extent of loss was sensitive to ecological scenarios. While our equilibrium analysis is informative, a dynamic analysis under similar ecological scenarios is necessary to reveal the full economic and ecological benefits of applying ecosystem-based fishery management policies to predator–prey fishery systems.

Beschreibung: Leptocephali, the larvae of eels, grow to large sizes and are widely distributed in tropical and subtropical oceans. Their role in oceanic food webs is poorly known because they are rarely reported as food items in fish stomach content studies. Data from 13 years of research on the trophic dynamics of Pacific Ocean predatory fish indicate that among 8746 fish of 76 species/taxa (33 families) that had been feeding, only 16 fish of 6 species had remains of 34 leptocephali in their stomachs. Only 0.013% of the 256 308 total prey items were leptocephalus larvae, and 0.03% of the total prey items were juvenile or adult eels (mostly snipe eels: Nemichthyidae). There were 10 fish of 2 species of lancetfish ( Alepisaurus spp., n = 152), 2 rainbow runners ( Elagatis bipinnulata , n = 222), and 2 yellowfin tuna ( Thunnus albacares , n = 3103) that had leptocephali in their stomach contents, but all except one T. albacares (contained 15 leptocephali) had each eaten ≤3 leptocephali. A swallower, Pseudoscopelus sp., and a frigate tuna, Auxis thazard , had eaten single leptocephali. Twenty-eight bigeye tuna, Thunnus obesus , had eaten 76 juvenile/adult nemichthyid or serrivomerid eels. A literature survey found that only 15 out of 75 examined publications listed leptocephali in the stomach contents of a total of 6 species out of ~ 42 300 predatory fish of 40 species. The transparency of leptocephali and their apparent mimicry of gelatinous zooplankton could contribute to lower rates of predation. Their soft bodies likely digest rapidly, so although this study and existing literature indicate that leptocephali sometimes contribute to predatory fish diets, particularly for fish that do not exclude gelatinous prey types, and fish with low digestion rates in their stomachs such as lancetfish, their levels of contribution to fish diets and the impacts of predators on eel recruitment remain uncertain.

Beschreibung: Effective individual transferable quotas (ITQ) systems rebuild stocks and allow transfer of quotas to more efficient operators. This process requires functional markets for both quota sales and temporary quota leases. These markets are expected to respond to changes in economic rent from the fishery, which is influenced by stock abundance and the international rock lobster price. This research used multistate Markov modelling and Granger causality test to examine changes in the permanent and temporary quota trade in the Tasmanian rock lobster fishery quota market, during periods of both increasing and decreasing stock abundance. The permanent quota trade market was more active during the period of stock growth, while the quota lease market was active in both periods of stock growth and decline. In contrast to theoretical trends in ITQ fisheries, trades in both markets were not linked to the technical efficiency (i.e. catching capability) of operators, but were more driven by the quota owners' financial capacity (i.e. number of owned quotas). Prolonged and unexpected stock decline affected the quota market so that it deviated from the theoretical pattern of ITQ fisheries. Operators previously active in the market reduced their activity, while smaller operators and firms that previously had not traded became more active, so the fleet expanded with smaller operators entering.

Beschreibung: Jellyfish disruption of fisheries has been described in some coastal systems, but few thorough investigations have been conducted. To ascertain the economic impact and trend of jellyfish blooms in the Northern California Current (NCC), we mailed surveys to resident commercial shrimpers, salmon trollers, rockfish (blue, black), and groundfish fishers ( n = 872). We asked fishers to estimate the damages caused by jellyfish—including costs of relocating to avoid blooms, lost fishing time, time lost to bycatch sorting, fish depreciation, and gear damage. Of the total respondents ( n = 111), 67% reported that jellyfish reduce their seasonal revenue, but the degree of impact ranged considerably by fishery and location. Highest jellyfish nuisance corresponded to regions with the most salmon trolling effort. Using the mean revenue losses provided by respondents, we estimate that the combined economic impact of jellyfish on Oregon's salmon and pink shrimp fishers was over $650 000 in peak jellyfish season (June–September) in 2012. Fishers reported that jellyfish biomass varies annually, but most respondents (51%) reported observing no appreciable change in jellyfish populations in the last 5 years. Since economic impact analyses have been conducted primarily in areas with anomalous, high-density blooms, data from the NCC, which is not known to be experiencing increases in jellyfish abundance, provides baseline information on the socio-economic impact of jellyfish blooms in this region. In addition, the finding that jellyfish impact hook and line fisheries—not solely net fisheries—has implications for many other regions where fishers employ this gear type.

Beschreibung: Odontocete depredation on longlines involves socioeconomic and conservation issues with significant losses for fisheries and potential impacts on wild populations of depredating species. As technical solutions to this conflict are limited and difficult to implement, this study aimed to identify fishing practices that could reduce odontocete depredation, with a focus on killer whales (Orcinus orca) interacting with Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) longliners off the Crozet islands. Data collected by fishery observers from 6013 longline sets between 2003 and 2013 allowed us to statistically detect the significant influence of five operational variables using GLMMs. The probability of interactions between vessels and killer whales was decreased by (i) the number of vessels operating simultaneously in the area: the limited number of depredating killer whales may induce a dilution effect with increased fleet size, and (ii) depth of longline sets: vessels operating in shallow waters may be more accessible to whales that are initially distributed on peri-insular shelves. The cpue was negatively influenced by (iii) length of longlines: longer sets may provide killer whales access to a greater proportion of hooked fish per set, and positively influenced by (iv) hauling speed: increased speed may shorten the time during which toothfish are accessible to whales during hauling. The time it takes for killer whales to reach vessels was positively correlated to (v) the distance travelled between longline sets with an estimated threshold of 100 km beyond which whales seem to temporarily lose track of vessels. These findings provide insightful guidelines about what fishing strategy to adopt given these variables to reduce killer whale depredation here and in similar situations elsewhere. To a greater extent, this study is illustrative of how collaborative work with fishermen in a fully controlled fishery framework may lead to the definition of cost-limited and easy-to-implement mitigation solutions when facing such human-wildlife conflict.

Beschreibung: In Alaskan waters, depredation on sablefish longline gear by sperm whales increases harvesting cost, negatively biases stock assessments, and presents a risk of entanglement for whales. The Southeast Alaska Sperm Whale Avoidance Project (SEASWAP), a collaborative effort involving industry, scientists, and managers, since 2003 has undertaken research to evaluate depredation with a goal of recommending measures to reduce interactions. Prior to 2003, little was known about sperm whale distribution and behaviour in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA). Although fishers were reporting increasing interactions, the level of depredation varied with no apparent predictor of occurrence across vessels. Between 2003 and 2007, fishers were provided with fishery logbooks and recorded information on whale behaviour, whale presence and absence, during the set, soak, and haul for 319 sets in the GOA. Data were evaluated for a vessel, area, and seasonal (month) effect in the presence and absence of sperm whales. Using catch per unit effort ( cpue ) as a metric, in kg/100 hooks, results indicated that depredation depended on both the vessel and the area. More whales associated with vessels from April to August. Sperm whales were also likely to be present when cpue was high, revealing that whales and fishers both knew the most productive fishing areas, but confounding the use of cpue as a metric for depredation. Using a Bayesian mark-recapture analysis and the sightings histories of photo-identified whales, an estimated $$\hat{N}=135$$ (95% CI 124, 153) sperm whales were associating with vessels in 2014. A spatial model was fitted to 319 longline sets and quantified a 3% loss in cpue , comparable to other global studies on sperm whale depredation. Through all phases of SEASWAP, our understanding of depredation has gained significantly. This successful collaboration should be considered as a model to create partnerships and build collaborations between researchers and fisherpeople encountering marine mammal interactions with fishing gear.

Beschreibung: This paper provides a synthesis of results obtained as part of a long-term collaborative study involving biologists, fishers, and resource managers—centring on the occurrence of killer whales in the Crozet Archipelago before and after the implementation of a demersal longline fishery for Patagonian toothfish. Depredation behaviour was reported as soon as the fishery was initiated, with dramatic effects on both the demographic trajectories of the killer whales and on the amount of fish lost by the fishers. Killer whales interacting with the fishery exhibited very high mortality rates when illegal fishing took place, while killer whales not interacting were unaffected. However, after illegal fishing ended, killer whales interacting with the fishery exhibited both higher fecundity and survival rates compared with killer whales not interacting. Since whales typically removed fish entirely from the hooks, an adapted methodology that did not rely on determining the number of damaged fish was developed to estimate depredation rates. In the Crozet EEZ over a 10-year period, 33.9% of the total amount of Patagonian toothfish caught, representing a total of 28 million , was estimated to be lost due to the combined effects of killer whale and sperm whale depredation. In an effort to reduce depredation losses, modifications to fishing methods, such as changing the fishing season, changing fishing areas when exposed to depredation and changing longline length and hauling speed were successfully tested. Acoustic deterrent devices were ineffective in deterring killer whales from depredating longlines. Alternative fishing gears, such as fish pots, were also tested. However, while providing encouraging results regarding the suppression of depredation and seabird bycatch, fish pots were not efficient enough to sustain an economically viable fishery. In conclusion, we discuss how the findings of this comprehensive study can be used elsewhere in fisheries confronted with depredation.

Beschreibung: This article evaluates 186 papers, published between 1978 and 2013 in 16 representative scientific journals, related to maintenance and reliability problems that were tackled from a multi-criteria (MC) perspective. An overview and insights are presented. This study may be useful to researchers and others concerned with maintenance and reliability who seek not only to understand the potential of MC and multi-objective models but also to develop and apply an MC decision model to help solve a real problem in these areas. There are some discussions on some principles for the application of MC in maintenance and reliability and some guidance on how to choose a suitable MC method is given, based on previous applications.

Beschreibung: A credit-linked note (CLN) is a type of credit derivative, constructed with a bond and an embedded credit default swap, which allows the issuer to transfer a specific credit risk to credit investors. In this paper, we model CLNs with and without counterparty risk in the reduced-form framework. For CLNs with counterparty risk, we consider two different scenarios, i.e. the issuer of CLNs and reference assets have either positive correlation or negative correlation. Assuming the interest rate follows the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) model (Cox et al ., 1985) and the default events mainly depend on the interest rate, we model the two different correlations. Explicit formulas for value functions are obtained through a partial differential equation approach. In addition, counterparty valuation adjustment and the dependence on related parameters are also investigated.

Beschreibung: The scattering of seismic waves travelling in the Earth is not only caused by random velocity heterogeneity but also by surface topography. Both factors are known to strongly affect ground-motion complexity even at relatively short distance from the source. In this study, we simulate ground motion with a 3-D finite-difference wave propagation solver in the 0–5 Hz frequency band using three topography models representative of the Swiss alpine region and realistic heterogeneous media characterized by the Von Karman correlation functions. Subsequently, we analyse and quantify the characteristics of the scattered wavefield in the near-source region. Our study shows that both topography and velocity heterogeneity scattering may excite large coda waves of comparable relative amplitude, especially at around 1 Hz, although large variability in space may occur. Using the single scattering model, we estimate average Q C values in the range 20–30 at 1 Hz, 36–54 at 1.5 Hz and 62–109 at 3 Hz for constant background velocity models with no intrinsic attenuation. In principle, envelopes of topography-scattered seismic waves can be qualitatively predicted by theoretical back-scattering models, while forward- or hybrid-scattering models better reproduce the effects of random velocity heterogeneity on the wavefield. This is because continuous multiple scattering caused by small-scale velocity perturbations leads to more gentle coda decay and envelope broadening, while topography abruptly scatters the wavefield once it impinges the free surface. The large impedance contrast also results in more efficient mode mixing. However, the introduction of realistic low-velocity layers near the free surface increases the complexity of ground motion dramatically and indicates that the role of topography in elastic waves scattering can be relevant especially in proximity of the source. Long-period surface waves can form most of the late coda, especially when intrinsic attenuation is taken into account. Our simulations indicate that both topography and velocity heterogeneity scattering may result in large ground-motion variability, characterized by standard deviation values in the range 0.2–0.5 also at short distance from the source. We conclude that both topography and velocity heterogeneity should be considered to correctly assess the ground-motion variability in earthquake scenario studies even at intermediate frequency.

Beschreibung: In this study, we have systematically investigated the influence of the parameters of the slip-weakening law and the size of nucleation asperity on dynamic rupture of a planar fault in full-space and half-space using the boundary integral equation method, in particular, the occurrence conditions for subshear (or sub-Rayleigh for strike-slip rupture) and supershear ruptures. Besides the well-known rupture styles of subshear (or sub-Rayleigh) and supershear, we defined a new kind of rupture style in this study, termed the ‘self-arresting rupture’, for which the rupture process can be autonomously arrested by itself without any outside interference (e.g. a high strength barrier). Based on the vast number of simulations, we obtained rupture phase diagrams for strike-slip and dip-slip ruptures vertically and obliquely embedded in half-space and full-space with different buried depths. The rupture phase diagram clearly illustrates the occurrence conditions of three kinds of rupture styles and the transitions between them. In full-space, the supershear transition is sensitive with the fault width. Owing to the influence of the free surface, the rupture in half-space becomes much more complicated comparing to the one in full-space. For a strike-slip fault with zero buried depth, all ruptures that occur within the parameter range for sub-Rayleigh ruptures in full-space case become supershear ruptures. This means that as long as a rupture is able to grow incessantly, it will always evolve into a supershear rupture. For dip-slip faults, however, ruptures will always propagate with subshear speed, although slip rate could be almost twice that of a strike-slip fault. Although the influence of the free surface is strong, it is limited to very shallow ruptures (i.e. buried depth 〈1 km). The rupture phase diagram discussed in this study could provide a new insight on earthquake rupture mechanics.

Beschreibung: Mainland Portugal, on the southwestern edge of the European continent, is located directly north of the boundary between the Eurasian and Nubian plates. It lies in a region of slow lithospheric deformation (〈5 mm yr –1 ), which has generated some of the largest earthquakes in Europe, both intraplate (mainland) and interplate (offshore). Some offshore earthquakes are nucleated on old and cold lithospheric mantle, at depths down to 60 km. The seismicity of mainland Portugal and its adjacent offshore has been repeatedly classified as diffuse. In this paper, we analyse the instrumental earthquake catalogue for western Iberia, which covers the period between 1961 and 2013. Between 2010 and 2012, the catalogue was enriched with data from dense broad-band deployments. We show that although the plate boundary south of Portugal is diffuse, in that deformation is accommodated along several distributed faults rather than along one long linear plate boundary, the seismicity itself is not diffuse. Rather, when located using high-quality data, earthquakes collapse into well-defined clusters and lineations. We identify and characterize the most outstanding clusters and lineations of epicentres and correlate them with geophysical and tectonic features (historical seismicity, topography, geologically mapped faults, Moho depth, free-air gravity, magnetic anomalies and geotectonic units). Both onshore and offshore, clusters and lineations of earthquakes are aligned preferentially NNE–SSW and WNW–ESE. Cumulative seismic moment and epicentre density decrease from south to north, with increasing distance from the plate boundary. Only few earthquake lineations coincide with geologically mapped faults. Clusters and lineations that do not match geologically mapped faults may correspond to previously unmapped faults (e.g. blind faults), rheological boundaries or distributed fracturing inside blocks that are more brittle and therefore break more easily than neighbour blocks. The seismicity map of western Iberia presented in this article opens important questions concerning the regional seismotectonics. This work shows that the study of low-magnitude earthquakes using dense seismic deployments is a powerful tool to study lithospheric deformation in slowly deforming regions, such as western Iberia, where high-magnitude earthquakes occur with long recurrence intervals.

Beschreibung: We present a new 3-D traveltime tomography code (TOMO3D) for the modelling of active-source seismic data that uses the arrival times of both refracted and reflected seismic phases to derive the velocity distribution and the geometry of reflecting boundaries in the subsurface. This code is based on its popular 2-D version TOMO2D from which it inherited the methods to solve the forward and inverse problems. The traveltime calculations are done using a hybrid ray-tracing technique combining the graph and bending methods. The LSQR algorithm is used to perform the iterative regularized inversion to improve the initial velocity and depth models. In order to cope with an increased computational demand due to the incorporation of the third dimension, the forward problem solver, which takes most of the run time (~90 per cent in the test presented here), has been parallelized with a combination of multi-processing and message passing interface standards. This parallelization distributes the ray-tracing and traveltime calculations among available computational resources. The code's performance is illustrated with a realistic synthetic example, including a checkerboard anomaly and two reflectors, which simulates the geometry of a subduction zone. The code is designed to invert for a single reflector at a time. A data-driven layer-stripping strategy is proposed for cases involving multiple reflectors, and it is tested for the successive inversion of the two reflectors. Layers are bound by consecutive reflectors, and an initial velocity model for each inversion step incorporates the results from previous steps. This strategy poses simpler inversion problems at each step, allowing the recovery of strong velocity discontinuities that would otherwise be smoothened.

Beschreibung: The accurate estimation of dispersion curves has been a key issue for ensuring high quality in geophysical surface wave exploration. Many studies have been carried out on the generation of a high-resolution dispersion image from array measurements. In this study, the sparse signal representation and reconstruction techniques are employed to obtain the high resolution Rayleigh-wave dispersion image from seismic wave data. First, a sparse representation of the seismic wave data is introduced, in which the signal is assumed to be sparse in terms of wave speed. Then, the sparse signal is reconstructed by optimization using l 1 -norm regularization, which gives the signal amplitude spectrum as a function of wave speed. A dispersion image in the f – v domain is generated by arranging the sparse spectra for all frequency slices in the frequency range. Finally, to show the efficiency of the proposed approach, the Surfbar-2 field test data, acquired by B. Luke and colleagues at the University of Nevada Las Vegas, are analysed. By comparing the real-field dispersion image with the results from other methods, the high mode-resolving ability of the proposed approach is demonstrated, particularly for a case with strongly coherent modes.

Beschreibung: Many applications of seismology require the calculation of wave speed and attenuation in rocks saturated with multiple fluids. Squirt flow is known to be an important effect in fully saturated rocks but the extension to the multifluid case is unclear. Neglecting capillary effects, we generalize previous work on squirt flow to the case where two fluids are present. We derive expressions for the effective fluid properties, but the results depend on the spatial distributions, and not only volume fractions, of the two fluids. Our results demonstrate that such multifluid squirt flow may be responsible for hysteresis effects in elastic properties during imbibition and drainage.

Beschreibung: Iterative substitution of the coupled Marchenko equations is a novel methodology to retrieve the Green's functions from a source or receiver array at an acquisition surface to an arbitrary location in an acoustic medium. The methodology requires as input the single-sided reflection response at the acquisition surface and an initial focusing function, being the time-reversed direct wavefield from the acquisition surface to a specified location in the subsurface. We express the iterative scheme that is applied by this methodology explicitly as the successive actions of various linear operators, acting on an initial focusing function. These operators involve multidimensional crosscorrelations with the reflection data and truncations in time. We offer physical interpretations of the multidimensional crosscorrelations by subtracting traveltimes along common ray paths at the stationary points of the underlying integrals. This provides a clear understanding of how individual events are retrieved by the scheme. Our interpretation also exposes some of the scheme's limitations in terms of what can be retrieved in case of a finite recording aperture. Green's function retrieval is only successful if the relevant stationary points are sampled. As a consequence, internal multiples can only be retrieved at a subsurface location with a particular ray parameter if this location is illuminated by the direct wavefield with this specific ray parameter. Several assumptions are required to solve the Marchenko equations. We show that these assumptions are not always satisfied in arbitrary heterogeneous media, which can result in incomplete Green's function retrieval and the emergence of artefacts. Despite these limitations, accurate Green's functions can often be retrieved by the iterative scheme, which is highly relevant for seismic imaging and inversion of internal multiple reflections.

Beschreibung: The pre- and current collision of the Juan Fernández Ridge with the central Chilean margin at 31°–33°S is characterized by large-scale crustal thinning and long-term subsidence of the submarine forearc caused by subduction erosion processes. Here, we study the structure of the central Chilean margin in the ridge–trench collision zone by using wide-angle and multichannel seismic data. The transition from the upper to middle continental slope is defined by a trenchward dipping normal scarp with variable offsets of 500–2000 m height. Beneath the scarp, the 2-D velocity–depth models show a prominent lateral velocity contrast of 〉1 s –1 that propagates deep into the continental crust defining a major lateral seismic discontinuity. The discontinuity is interpreted as the lithological contact between the subsided/collapsed outermost forearc (composed of eroded and highly fractured volcanic rocks) and the seaward part of the uplifted Coastal Cordillera (made of less fractured metamorphic/igneous rocks). Extensional faults are abundant in the collapsed outermost forearc, however, landward of the continental slope scarp, both extensional and compressional structures are observed along the uplifted continental shelf that forms part of the Coastal Cordillera. Particularly, at the landward flank of the Valparaíso Forearc Basin (32°–33.5°S), shallow crustal seismicity has been recorded in 2008–2009 forming a dense cluster of thrust events of M w 4–5. The estimated hypocentres spatially correlate with the location of the fault scarp, and they highlight the upper part of the seismic crustal discontinuity.

Beschreibung: Employing dynamic reciprocity can be an effective tool to simplify the calculation of elastic wavefields for borehole problems and to check the results. We analytically obtain the reciprocity relations for the elastodynamic fields generated by multipole sources in a fluid–solid configuration: if the multipole sources are located in the fluid, the particle displacement due to a dipole source is reciprocal to the particle acceleration due to a single force; the fluid pressure due to a dipole source is reciprocal to the particle acceleration due to a monopole source; the particle displacement due to a quadrupole source is reciprocal to the spatial partial derivative of the particle acceleration due to a single force; the fluid pressure due to a quadrupole source is reciprocal to the spatial partial derivative of the particle acceleration due to a monopole source. These relations are tested by numerical experiments for different borehole problems, including acoustic logging, single-well imaging and vertical seismic profiling. A reciprocity test can be used as a quick check of a finite-difference algorithm and the implementation of the sources, although it cannot detect errors due to improper discretization of the interfaces.

Beschreibung: This paper presents the development of an adaptive state estimator and an output controller based on the attractive ellipsoid method (AEM) for a class of uncertain non-linear systems (quasi-Lipschitz with external perturbations). The proposed method guarantees that, under a specific persistent excitation condition, the controlled system trajectories converge to an ellipsoid having a smaller trace of the corresponding inverse ellipsoidal matrix comparing to classical AEM without adaptation. An underactuated vertical double pendulum is considered as an experimental illustrative example of the suggested approach.

Beschreibung: In this paper, non-linear time-varying systems with slowly varying parameters are considered. Using slowly varying control Lyapunov function and considering a cost function, a controller (with closed-form structure) is presented which guarantees asymptotic stability of the closed-loop non-linear slowly varying system. Moreover, the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation is analysed to show that the proposed controller is a sub-optimal controller and the response of the closed-loop system may be very close to its optimal solution. Additionally, in order to show the applicability of the proposed method, it is applied to the time-varying inertia pendulum, which is one of the famous benchmarks among the non-linear time-varying systems. Then, the efficiency of the designed controller is compared with that of a numerical optimal controller, which is called, ‘receding horizon generalization of point-wise min-norm controller’. Simulation results demonstrate the applicability and efficiency of the proposed method.

Beschreibung: This paper addresses the problem of designing a static output feedback sliding mode control algorithm for linear MIMO systems with mismatched parameter uncertainties and matched perturbations. Once the system is in the sliding mode, the proposed output-dependent sliding variable can guarantee robust stability of the closed-loop system. The existence condition of the sliding variable is determined by solving the coupled algebraic Riccati equations which are involved with the original system parameters. The developed control law having the min–max property can guarantee that the system states are globally driven to and are finally maintained on the sliding variable in finite time. The high-gain control problem can be effectively avoided. The feasibility of the proposed method is demonstrated by simulation results.

Beschreibung: The objective of this paper is to study the notion of regional observability of a distributed parameter system governed by semilinear hyperbolic equations. This original concept is interested in the reconstruction of the state only on a subregion of the boundary of the system evolution domain . We give definition and some properties of this notion and we show that under some hypothesis, the regional boundary observability is guarantied. We use the analytical case by sectorial property of the considered dynamic operator and converted to a fixed point problem, and we show that it is possible to reconstruct such a state on a desired subregion . This approach leads to interesting results which are performed through numerical example and simulations.

Beschreibung: This paper deals with the distributed robust output regulation problem for the multi-agent systems with general nonlinear dynamics and uncertainty parameters. Assume that the information of active leaders or environmental disturbances cannot be completely measurable for all other agents. By employing the centre manifold theory and characteristics of the agents’ communication, the nonlinear distributed dynamic feedback controllers are designed to make the agents asymptotically track the references or reject the disturbance signals, which are generated by the exosystem. Two numerical examples are provided to show the effectiveness of the main results.