ALBERT

Notes: Abstract A common view of the energy problem holds that what is at stake in most energy policy debates are questions of fact that are in principle susceptible to resolution by objective, scientific research. It is argued in this paper that this view is misguided, and that underlying many of the factual issues apparently in dispute are differences at the framework level, that is differences in basic presuppositions and the patterns of thinking employed. By means of an examination of the debate over soft and hard energy paths, it will be argued that framework differences are fundamental to that debate and that such differences are not susceptible to factual resolution. As a result, the debate has taken on the character of a ritualized performance, as each side strives to convince, not their opponents, but policymakers of the rightness of their opinion. Some of the implications of these findings for energy policymaking are explored.

Notes: Abstract A problem little noted in the literature on policy analysis is that analysis can interact with problems to make them different and more difficult to solve than they would be without analysis. Four varieties of interaction can be distinguished. All are rooted in the methods and assumptions of economics, the discipline that now dominates federal analysis, and particularly in its limited capacity to set policy goals. To prevent interaction, analysts would have to be able to set goals with greater independence so that aims were not swayed by the analytic process. They would need either their own theory of ends or closer political guidance.

Notes: Abstract Recent federal proposals and program experiments aimed at improving the innovative performance of American industry have been based on an inappropriate analytic framework. The neoclassical microeconomic analysis upon which these proposals are based emphasizes the undersupply of R & D. However, a more crucial problem in this context is the utilization of complex research results by firms and industries with low levels of in-house research expertise. This problem is a central concern of an alternative approach to the analysis of innovation, termed the information processing framework. This analytic approach, which receives empirical support from an examination of previous cooperative research programs in the United States and Great Britain and an analysis of independent consulting firms' operations, suggests that cooperative or extramural research does not function effectively as a substitute for in-house research. Public policies to encourage innovation should be attentive to the distribution, as well as the supply, of R & D.

Notes: Abstract The dominant paradigm in evaluation research is undergoing serious challenge. This article explores the ideal role of evaluation in decisionmaking, the methodologies for conducting evaluations, the congruence between evaluation methodology and actual organizational behavior, and the relationship between evaluators and program managers. We conclude that although there are serious disparities between the ideal and the actual in each of these four areas, and especially in the congruence between evaluation methodology and organizational behavior, there is not likely to be a change in the dominant paradigm because it is difficult for practitioners to use the language and values of new organizational perspectives.

Notes: Abstract This article argues that nuclear deterrence is a contemporary ideology (an elaborately-developed set of convictions, socio-politically central, stable over time, idealistic in intent, widely and emotionally embraced). And vulnerable. Vulnerable to the critique of the social scientist who can raise questions about the reliability of nuclear deterrence as a cornerstone. Vulnerable to the critique of the moral philosopher who can raise important questions about the propriety of nuclear deterrence and the programmatic activities it underlies.

Notes: Abstract Several shortcomings in a major study of the world's energy system are described. The study, entitled Energy in a Finite World, resulted in widely publicized conclusions and urgent policy recommendations that were derived from detailed projections of the global energy future. A set of computer models was used to produce these projections, which are analyzed here in two ways. First, treating the models as a black box, it is shown that several principal results are effectively prescribed informally in input data that pass through the models unchanged. Second, despite claims of robustness, detailed sensitivity analysis shows that the energy supply projections are highly sensitive to perturbations in various input data. Early work that revealed this problem is not cited, and standard sensitivity tests are not provided in the study. Thus, despite the appearance of analytical rigor, the study's conclusions are evidently based on opinions rather than objective robust analysis.

Notes: Abstract This article is a complement to Keepin's technical analysis of the energy models and scenarios in the IIASA global energy study, Energy in a Finite World. It analyses the role of formal global energy models in the scenarios and policy conclusions as described in the IIASA Energy System Program's (ESP) own statements. It finds inconsistencies which have confused external audiences, including modelers, as to the importance of properties of formal models in generating authority for policy conclusions. The analysis finds two contradictory images of scientific authority pervading the ESP's published accounts. This article argues that models are more symbolic vehicles for gaining authority than objective technical frameworks. Whilst this is in principle legitimate, it means that the internal processes (and not just the products) of modeling projects are a legitimate subject of public evaluation. Due attention must therefore be paid to the quality and disclosure of such processes. The institutional process of analysis reflects a particular policy style itself and constrains what policies are even conceivable. Claims to scientific analysis and definition of policy problems are themselves symptomatic of a policy framework which is biased at a deeper level than that of specific prescriptions.

Notes: Abstract My four years at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) have provided the opportunity for some participant observation among the Energy Tribes. The uncertainties that envelop trends in energy supply and demand are so wide that the exploratory mode (asking “What would you like the facts to be?”) turns out to be more rewarding than the adversary mode (asking “What are the facts?”). The three Energy Tribes are distinguished by their three contradictory scenarios: “Business as Usual,” “Middle of the Road” and “Radical Change Now.” Each scenario sets very different bounds on what is credible and incredible, possible and impossible, sensible and foolish, rational and irrational. More often than not, the name of any particular tribe turns out to mean simply “the people” in the language of that tribe. Each tribe, seeing itself as the repository of everything that is human, consigns all the others to a sort of unmenschionable limbo. That, in essence, is what has happened in energy policy analysis.

Notes: Abstract This article is a summary description of the research carried out by Science Applications, Inc. (SAI) in 1980–1981 to improve methods of strategic analysis. “People-in-the-loop” gaming, with extensive support from computer simulations, automated data bases, and an interactive computer and display system are at the heart of SAI's methodology. The basic approach proposed for achieving the Department of Defense (DoD) improvement objectives is to integrate state-of-the-art techniques into an operating system for strategic warfare analysis, so as to allow DoD staffs routinely to include important factors that often are neglected. The article discusses the development of gaming as a tool of analysis, gives an overview of SAI's conceptual architecture, and summarizes the design of the supporting computer and software system.

Notes: Abstract A new method for automating political-military games as a means of analyzing strategic forces was recently developed and demonstrated by The Rand Corporation. Interest in this technique sprang from dissatisfaction with the dominant methods of analyzing strategic forces: manual political-military games and force exchange models. While each brings important capabilities to the analysis of strategic forces, neither method can independently handle all of the variables required to satisfy the current demands placed on strategic analysis. Rand drew upon the discipline used to develop models and the flexibility inherent in gaming to develop its automated wargame. The method promises significant improvement over the traditional methods of strategic analysis in breadth of input and flexibility of application.

Notes: Abstract A content analysis was conducted on 181 randomly sampled articles published in nine leading social policy journals from 1975 through 1980. The purpose of the study was to obtain a methodological and substantive profile of the state of the art of the policy sciences. Results indicate the existence of two prevailing types of policy analysis: quantitative-empirical and rhetorical-discussive.

Notes: Abstract Variable-wise analysis operates on columns of a typical data matrix, while case-wise analysis operates on rows. In the latter, each observation is construed in the context of all other observations on the same case, and the analysis is biased toward the definition of ideal types. This article explores the potential of case-wise policy analysis using survey data on the burden of high energy costs at the household level. The case-wise and variable-wise alternatives are associated with different policy goals and result in quite different priorities for allocating public assistance to households most in need. The article concludes with a discussion of reasons for institutionalizing the case-wise alternative through periodic data collection and reporting systems.

Notes: Abstract The act of evaluation requires an expenditure of resources. In Part I of this paper, we present a simple decision tree model borrowed from operations research to provide a conceptual framework for considering whether or not to commit such resources. In Part II, once the evaluation is carried out, we address the problem of evaluating the evaluation as a vehicle for producing useful information to decisionmakers. Evaluation inputs, processes, and outcomes are defined and discussed within the context of comprehensive evaluation of evaluations.

Notes: Abstract The present paper investigates the political feasibility of policies to control pollution and fishing. It first hypothesizes the following: when common or usufruct property rights are changed to full ownership, the new policy is not an unadulterated charge or auctioned license because of the implied wealth transfer. This hypothesis is “tested” by reviewing the cases in which full ownership rights have been established and is found to be consistent with the evidence. The paper then investigates the conditions that facilitate the development of full ownership rights. It concludes that proposing policies that are simple and incremental increases political feasibility, in large part because of greater understanding by fishermen and polluters.

Notes: Abstract As government revenues diminish, budgetary discretions or flexibilities have similarly decreased. A pressing question is therefore how to minimize the inflexible elements or components of a budget. This article distinguishes between technical and political inflexibilities as they are reflected in the budgetary process and argues that the latter are much more difficult to correct. After drawing some examples from studies of the Dutch national budget, the article proposes the use of “reconsideration reports” as a means to alleviate the politically inflexible components of the budget, as well as a way to assess government programs.

Notes: Abstract Policy termination is normally treated within a policy cycle view, where the termination stage is expected to follow, and be guided by, the evaluation stage. This hypothesized linking of termination with evaluation is examined here through the lenses of “reformers” and “guardians,” as they relate to the termination question of Project Renewal in Israel. Reformers see the fulfillment of Project Renewal objectives as the precondition for termination. Guardians hold that past commitments are no longer relevant. The question is not whether to evaluate, but what to evaluate; what objectives should count in making cutback and termination decisions. The close linkage posited beween programmatic evaluation and termination seems to have resolved the objectives question, to lead policy analysts to expect, if not prefer, commitment to original objectives. But insofar as we are willing to acknowledge policy termination as a political process, we must refocus our termination lenses to permit a changing set of objectives into this later stage of the policy process.

Notes: Abstract The article provides an overview on the development and the state of policy analysis as applied public policy research in West Germany. The developmental sketch shows that, similar to the upsurge of policy research in the United States since the mid-1960s, policy research in the Federal Republic of Germany is an offspring of the reformist period of the late 1960s and early 1970s, carried by a virtual “reformers' coalition” among politicians, bureaucrats, and researchers. Due to extradisciplinary demands and also intradisciplinary shifts in research foci, public policy research became almost a “growth industry” in the course of the 1970s. The article goes on to explore which repercussions the economic crisis, the new conservative moods and majorities and the “end to reforms” has had on the state and the orientation of policy analysis. The argument is presented that, no matter which majorities have the day, policy research remains socially and politically indispensible to detect and test corridors and “niches” for public action under ever narrower financial restraints and to identify the costs and benefits of such policies in a changing world.

Notes: Abstract Discrimination on grounds of race, sex, and handicap persists in many local school districts in spite of nearly twenty years of sustained attention from federal policymakers. Because litigation proceeds slowly and expensively, and because administrative attacks on discrimination have been stymied by political controversy, additional policy strategies merit careful consideration. We studied the operation of one such strategy in nine local districts: the mandatory collection of data concerning civil rights matters in schools. Data collection and reporting shaped local compliance with civil rights laws in four ways: by threatening local officials with future penalties, by providing political ammunition to constituencies that care about civil rights, by allowing local districts to learn about their own performance, and by framing school practices in ways that heighten awareness about equity. In this policy setting, data collection has advantages and disadvantages that complement those of other enforcement strategies. In this and other policy settings, data collection has power to elicit compliance even in the absence of conventional enforcement.

Notes: Abstract The emphasis currently placed on citizen participation in planning results in part from the recognition that planning requires judgments that have both value and technical components. This article describes a case study of a citizen participation process in which planners' judgments, rather than the judgments of the members of a citizens' task force, seemed to dictate the outcome. Although citizens were supposed to be influential in the policy analysis, they were, in effect, excluded from a meaningful role in the process. The analysis was actually guided by planners' supposedly technical judgments. Those judgments had important value implications, however, and those implications were not made clear to the citizens' task force. Examples are given of judgments made by planners at each stage of the analysis and the value components of those judgments are discussed. In each example, the judgments resulted in elimination of alternatives, selection of information, or integration of information. Two examples of methods of citizen participation which can increase the influence of citizens' judgments are also described.

Notes: Abstract The military retirement system provides an immediate, lifetime, inflation-protected annuity to personnel who complete 20 or more years of service. The cost of this system has risen substantially in the past 15 years, and the system's actuarial costs now comprise almost one-third of total military manpower costs. Because of its importance in the total military compensation system, the military retirement system exerts a significant influence on the age structure of the force and on personnel turnover patterns. This article evaluates the relative efficiency of the current retirement system by comparing it with two recently proposed alternatives, one by a presidential commission and one by the Department of Defense. It estimates the impact of these proposed alternatives on the military personnel force structure and on manpower costs. It is concluded that these alternatives would provide a force as capable as today's force at significantly lower cost.

Notes: Abstract Risk is the focal topic in the management of many activities and technologies. For that management to be successful, an explicit and accepted definition of the term “risk” is essential. Creation of that definition is a political act, expressing the definers' values regarding the relative importance of different possible adverse consequences for a particular decision. Those values, and with them the definition of risk, can change with changes in the decisionmaker, the technologies considered, or the decision problem. After a review of the sources of controversy in defining risk, a general framework is developed, showing how these value issues can be systematically addressed. As an example, the approach is applied to characterizing the risks of six competing energy technologies, the relative riskeness of which depends upon the particular definition used.

Notes: Abstract Technology and human behavior can influence the effectiveness of safety policies. In the field of traffic safety, rational-choice theorists postulate that automobile safety devices induce increased driver risk taking. Such behavioral responses could partly or totally nullify the lifesaving potential of governmental safety rules for new cars, such as the crashworthiness standards adopted by the United States in the late 1960s and early 1970s. This study explores the behavioral-response hypothesis in the context of a car-vintage model of U.S. car occupant death rates. Results from the model imply that U.S. standards have reduced the occupant death rate by roughly 30 percent, a finding consistent with minimal driver response to safety devices. The study provides support for the technological approach to safety policy and suggests that policymakers might consider adopting additional crashworthiness regulations, such as some form of passive-restraint program.

Notes: Abstract This article discusses whether U.S. society should invest in large-scale coal port development and examines specifically financing the deep-draft dredging of coal ports on the East and/or Gulf Coasts (Baltimore, Hampton Roads, Mobile, and New Orleans) so that fully loaded, large coal-carrying colliers can export coal to Western Europe. By assuming a society-wide perspective, no costs and benefits are attributed to various parties. Although the multifaceted nature of the coal port issue is acknowledged, the core of this study is a large number of different simulations. Each simulation “optimizes” the United States-Western Europe coal trade for a given demand, ocean transportation cost structure, and cost of capital. This relatively simple model focuses on the key tradeoff: the cost of dredging versus lower ocean transportation costs. The study supports those recommending caution in coal port development. The most striking conclusion is the robustness of two solutions - no dredging or dredge only Hampton Roads - depending on the assumptions. Our conclusions also generally do not support simultaneously dredging all deep-draft options, the concurrent dredging of more than one port, or dredging either of the Gulf ports before the two East Coast ports.

Notes: Abstract This article argues that the so-called crisis in evaluation is phenomenological rather than empirical. That is, our statements about evaluation, the presentational strategies used to define our expertise, and the ceremonies surrounding the dissemination of results are more problematic than what it is we actually do. If we can avoid calling attention to imaginary wolves, people might well listen when we do have something to say.

Notes: Conclusion The central role played by Darwin's analogy between selection under domestication and that under nature has been adequately appreciated, but I have indicated how important the domesticated organisms also were to other elements of Darwin's theory of evolution-his recognition of “the constant principle of change,” for instance, of the imperfection of adaptation, and of the extent of variation in nature. The further development of his theory and its presentation to the public likewise hinged on frequent reference to domesticates. We have seen that Darwin's reliance on the analogy between domesticated varieties and wild species was a bold and original step, in light of contemporary views on the nature of domesticates. However, as Darwin undoubtedly foresaw, his reliance on the analogy created difficulties as well as solving problems, and these began with his Malthusian codiscoverer of the principle of natural selection, Alfred Russel Wallace. Wallace's paper “On the Tendency of Varieties to Depart Indefinitely from the Original Type,” presented to the Linnean Scoiety along with the first public unveiling of Darwin's theory, states: We see, then, that no inferences as to varieties in a state of nature can be deduced from the observation of those occurring among domestic animals. The two are so much opposed to each other in every circumstance of their existence, that what applies to the one is almost sure not to apply to the other. Domestic animals are abnormal, irregular, artificial; they are subject to varieties which never occur and never can occur in a state of nature.62 Much has been made of the similarity of views of Darwin and Wallace, but this quotation surely reveals how utterly different their views were on what to Darwin was an important matter. Several critics of the Origin saw Darwin's reliance on the domesticates as his Achilles heel. As Young has pointed out, Samuel Wilberforce included the following passage in his attack on the Origin: Nor must we pass over unnoticed the transference of the argument from the domesticated to the untamed animals. Assuming that man as the selector can do much in a limited time, Mr. Darwin argues that Nature, a more powerful, a more continuous power, working over vastly extended ranges of time, can do more. But why should Nature, so uniform and persistent in all her operations, tend in this instance to change? Why should she become a selector of varieties?63 Another critic, Fleeming Jenkin, found the analogy a weakness in Darwin's theory because of the limited extent of variation in any one direction in domestic animals and plants.64 We have already seen that Darwin had confided a similar view to his notebook thirty years earlier, but changed his mind as a result of his profound study of domesticates. De Beer's reference to “an English country gentleman's knowledge of domestic plants and animals and their breeding”65 fails totally to recognize the originality and depth of Darwin's knowledge of domesticates. Why did Darwin, against the currents of his time, rely so heavily on mankind's experience with domesticated organisms to shape his theory about species in nature? On reason is that only with domesticates was an approach that came close to experimental verification possible. Darwin fully realized the inadequacies of the experiment, as is emphasized by his repeated contrasting of selection under nature and selection by man. Yet the extensive experience and data of plant and animal breeders offered the only reliable base against which Darwin could continually challenge his views. As he wrote in the introduction to Variation, with domestication, “man ... may be said to have been trying an experiment on a gigantic scale.”66 Given Darwin's high opinion of the quantitative work of Malthus and Quetelet (as emphasized by Schweber),67 and his unremitting efforts to secure data by which to test his theories, it was inevitable that he should attach high significance to domesticated varieties. John Tyndall, in his Belfast address of 1874, said: “The strength of the doctrine of Evolution consists, not in experimental demonstration (for the subject is hardly accessible to this mode of proof), but in its general harmony with scientific thought.”68 Darwin would have agreed with the latter thought, but I think he would have challenged the preceding one on the grounds that long experience with domesticated varieties did provide an element of experimental demonstration. It gave him confidence in his theory, and he used his vast knowledge of artificial selection boldly and creatively.

Notes: Conclusion: Toward a reassessment It should be clear that Lyell's scientific contemporaries would hardly have agreed with Robert Munro's remark that Antiquity of Man created a full-fledged discipline. Only later historians have judged the work a synthesis; those closer to the discoveries and events saw it as a compilation — perhaps a “capital compilation,”95 but a compilation none the less. Its heterogeneity made it difficult to judge as a unity, and most reviewers, like Forbes, concentrated on the first part of Lyell's trilogy. The chapters on glaciation were admired by Lyell's friends but had relatively little appeal to more general readers. His discussion of the species question hedged far too much to please those who accepted the cogency of Darwin's evidence and arguments. This last section of the book blatantly lacks originality or commitment and certainly has no claim to classical status in anthropology. We are left, then, with the first twelve chapters, for it was this portion that dictated the book's title and that amassed the available evidence favoring the antiquity of the human species. Did it do anything more than marshall the evidence that others had discovered? I think not. Lyell could write with style and verve. Principles of Geology is a remarkably readable book. But Antiquity is the work of a geologist, not of a systematic student of man. Despite its occasional touches of power, it never captures the freshness and immediacy of Lubbock's Pre-historic Times nor the theoretical brilliance of E. B. Tylor's Researches into the Early History of Mankind (1865).96 Antiquity utilizes little of the comparative method whereby Lyell's contemporaries used data from modern “savagery” to elaborate the possible social functions of the prehistoric remains being uncovered. It contains little social theory and has virtually no integrated framework. Even the first twelve chapters do not really hang together. As Hooker, commenting to Darwin on Lubbock's review, sadly wrote: “Lubbock in [the] N[atural] H[istory] Review, had in a note called attention to Lyell's ... ‘doing injustice’ to Prestwich & Falconer. I modified this expression ‘injustice’ in Lubbock's paper (which was friendly and apologetic). I am deeply sorry for it, but what can one do? I do think Lyell's first XII chapters a complete mess.”97 In another letter to Darwin, Hooker described this first portion of Antiquity as “confused and confusing.”98 Part of the problem, of course, lay in the subject's novelty for Lyell and for most of his contemporaries. At a deeper level, however, I believe that the book accurately reflects Lyell's uncertainties about Darwin's work and its implications for man.99 Leonard Wilson's edition of Lyell's Scientific Journals provides a unique insight into Lyell's mind during the years just before he began to write Antiquity.100 Preoccupied with the human implications of evolutionary biology, Lyell was not clear how many of those implications were compatible with his deep convictions about the dignity of man's place in the cosmos. With a certain naiveté, Lyell complained in 1873 that many of his readers had failed to see the “natural connections” among the three portions of Antiquity.101 Connections could indeed be drawn between man's antiquity and his evolutionary origins; Lyell's private Scientific Journals movingly demonstrate that he was well aware of this fact. But he never fully made the connections in his published writings. Antiquity of Man is more appropriately seen as the last gasp of the heroic period in British geology than as the opening salvo in a new, post-Darwinian anthropological synthesis. Between the founding of the Geological Society of London in 1807 and the middle of the nineteenth century, geology was recognized as one of the most exciting and innovative scientific fields in Britain.102 Lyell himself had contributed much to that drama, and by the 1860's he was a public figure of venerable proportions. More then any other man he represented a geology that had extended the boundaries of process, time, and life. The fundamental achievements of Lyell and his colleagues had been assimilated into the wider Victorian consciousness, yet the earlier public debates about “genesis and geology” had left untouched in its essentials the concept of Man as a moral, responsible, created being.103 Lyell never abandoned this view of his own species, and in 1863 it was a completely responsible creature which, under the weight of empirical evidence, Lyell admitted had lived on earth far longer than had previously been thought. Certainly this more generous allowance for human existence was constitutive to what Burrow calls the evolutionary social theory of midcentury Britain.104 Unlike Lyell, the younger representatives of this anthropology quietly accepted both man's antiquity and his aboriginal animality. Herbert Spencer's Principles of Psychology (1855), as well as the other volumes of his grand Synthetic Philosophy, presented as part of the cosmic process the development of human from prehuman beings.105 Tylor's discussion of what in his Researches (1865) he called the “gesture-language” presupposed the gradual and de novo origin of language in early human populations.106 Lubbock's young and polished mind was untroubled by the human implications of Darwin's work, and he cast his Prehistoric Times into such a perfect mold that it and its companionpiece (On the Origin of Civilization, 1870) went through seven editions each between 1865 and World War I, with their original theoretical structures intact. In a way that Lyell could not grasp, Lubbock was intrigued by questions concerning the origins of moral and religious beliefs and did not flinch at the thought of an amoral, atheistic creature as an ancestor.107 Indeed, as the German naturalist Carl Vogt pointed out in his Lectures on Man, translated into English the year after Antiquity, both Darwin's theories and the primitive flint knives of the Stone Age bore witness to a time beyond that imaginable from the condition of the lowest present-day “savage”: From such a low condition [little better than anthropomorphous apes], compared to which that of the so-called savages of the old and new world is a refined civilisation, has the human species gradually extricated itself, in a bitter struggle for existence, which it was well able to maintain, by being gifted with a larger amount of brain and intelligence than that possessed by the surrounding animal world.108 The easy integration of biological and social themes was perhaps the distinguishing hallmark of Victorian anthropology of the 1850's and 1860's. After his fashion, Lyell got both themes into Antiquity, but he carefully separated them with a seven-chapter wall of glacial ice. Lyell's anthropology was not that of a thoroughgoing evolutionist like Lubbock, Tylor, or Spencer. For Lyell prehistoric man was not a product of biological evolution. Rude and superstitious he may have been, but he possessed ritual and a belief in a future state, and thus deserved “the epithet of ‘noble,’ which Dryden gave to what he seems to have pictured to himself as the primitive condition of our race: as Nature first made man/when wild in woods the noble savage ran.”109 As a systematic argument, Lyell's book was at best a significant failure. As a popularization, it was a success — largely because of the personal stature of its author and the particular moment of its appearance. It helped establish the fact of man's antiquity with a wider Victorian audience, in itself no mean achievement. But Lyell was unable to exploit the fuller implications of his material in the service of a secular science of man. Ironically, he exploited only his colleagues' discoveries. Though the aging Lyell, with failing eyesight but unfailing mental powers, can still be seen as a man of considerable importance, his Antiquity belongs to the carefully circumscribed world of British geology rather than to the

Notes: Conclusion Experimental taxonomy was a diverse area of research, and botanists who helped develop it were motivated by a variety of concerns. While experimental taxonomy was never totally a taxonomic enterprise, improvement in classification was certainly one major motivation behind the research. Hall's and Clements' belief that experimental methods added more objectivity to classification was almost universally accepted by experimental taxonomists. Such methods did add a new dimension to taxonomy — a dimension that field and herbarium studies, however rigorous, could not duplicate. Nonetheless, experimental techniques were never completely divorced from traditional taxonomic methods. In practice, all experimental taxonomists employed a combination of descriptive and experimental methods. Most researchers freely acknowledged a debt to traditional taxonomy. Furthermore, the greater rigor of twentieth-century taxonomy was not due entirely to experimentalism. Both the experimental and descriptive aspects of taxonomy were improved by the increased use of quantitative methods, particularly statistics.52 From the beginning, a number of experimental taxonomists were interested primarily in classification. But many approached their research from fields other than taxonomy. These botanists were concerned primarily with ecological and genetic problems rather than with classification. There is little indication that they drew a sharp distinction: for example, taxonomic and cytogenetic conclusions were interwoven in Babcock and Stebbins' 1938 study of Crepis 53 (this was even more true of Babcock's final mongraph on the genus, published in 1947). Similarly, the extensive series of monographs, “Experimental Studies on the Nature of Species,” initiated by the Carnegie Institution group in 1940 combined ecological, cytogenetic, and taxonomic conclusions. Indeed, the significance of the major projects completed by experimental taxonomists was largely due to the fact that they were comprehensive studies rather than strictly taxonomic or cytogenetic. In a general sense, the primary motivation behind much of experimental taxonomy was evolutionary. Beginning in the second decade of the century Hall and Clements exhorted taxonomists to take an explicitly evolutionary perspective on research. Hall undoubtedly spoke for the majority of experimental taxonomists when he stated, “If there be anything at all to organic evolution, then taxonomy is dealing with the products of evolution and it is this that gives to taxonomy both its highest mission and its greatest responsibility.”54 Aside from a common interest in evolution, however, the theoretical orientations of experimental taxonomists were varied. This diversity is strikingly illustrated by the evolutionary views of members of the Carnegie Institution research group. Experimental taxonomy was initiated by Clements as one aspect of his Lamarckian study of adaptation and speciation. In contrast, Hall's research was inspired by a broad concern for evolutionary problems. Hall rarely referred to specific evolutionary mechanisms; rather, he applied a general conception of evolutionary processes to deduce phylogenetic relationships. His later associates at the Carnegie Institution explicitly dissociated themselves from Clements' theoretical framework. The neo-Darwinian interpretations of adaptation and speciation presented by Clausen, Keck, and Hiesey could hardly have been more different than those of Clements. However, this major shift in theoretical orientation should not obscure significant similarities between the research of Clements and later Carnegie workers. In terms of research problems and methodology, the first volume of “Experimental Studies on the Nature of Species” was an extension of the Clementsian research program. Clausen, Keck, and Hiesey's monograph was the mature discussion of transplant experimentation that Clements had very tentatively initiated during the first decades of the twentieth century. The bond that linked the members of the Carnegie Institution research group to experimental taxonomists in general was one of shared methodology rather than common theoretical orientation. While Clements' evolutionary views were eventually repudiated, his enthusiasm for innovative experimental methods was shared by later workers. The development of experimental taxonomy faced significant problems. During the period 1920–1950 this area of botanical research remained a hybrid discipline. The aims and scope of experimental taxonomy were never articulated in a completely unified manner. Consequently, even among experimental taxonomists, there were disagreements over the relation of their research to other botanical endeavors. Even though experimental taxonomy had close ties with general taxonomy, a number of experimental taxonomists questioned the “taxonomic” nature of their research55. Even to the extent that this hybrid discipline could be identified as a branch of taxonomy, problems arose. Taxonomists, as we have seen, were justifiably skeptical of what appeared to be a rapid influx of untested methods and ideas. Experimental taxonomists were not merely incorporating well-accepted methods from ecology and cytogenetics; during the period 1920–1950 the fields from which experimental taxonomists borrowed were themselves undergoing major theoretical and methodological changes. Despite problems and conflicts, experimental taxonomists did contribute improvements to classification. Furthermore, they made significant contributions to plant ecology and evolutionary genetics. The development of experimental taxonomy indicates that twentieth-century botanists were not necessarily isolated in naturalist and experimentalist camps. The joint session of taxonomists, cytologists, and geneticists at the 1926 International Congress of Plant Sciences indicates communication among specialists fairly early in the century. The papers and commentaries presented during this session do not reveal the hostility and intolerance that supposedly characterized encounters between experimentalists and naturalists. Nor do they suggest incompatible conceptual worlds separating geneticists and taxonomists. Discussions between taxonomists and other specialists were not limited to a single international congress. Particularly during the 1930s discussions among specialists appear to have been fairly widespread. Groups such as the Biosystematists and the Society for the Study of Systematics in Relation to General Biology served as forums for discussion among biologists from a variety of disciplines. The naturalist-experimentalist dichotomy tends to obscure the broad research interests of a number of prominent twentieth-century botanists. Most of the experimental taxonomists cannot be characterized adequately as either naturalists or experimentalists. Traditionally trained taxonomists such as Hall, Keck, and Turrill throughout their careers participated in both experimental and herbarium research. And a number of specialists in fields other than taxonomy took an active interest in taxonomic problems, not necessarily limited to experimental aspects. For example, Anderson suggested a number of innovations to make herbarium collections more amenable to statistical analysis. This historical study of experimental taxonomy indicates a different relationship between experimentalism and taxonomy than that portrayed by the naturalist-versus-experimentalist dichotomy. F. E. Clements originated experimental taxonomy as a revolt against descriptive botany. In retrospect, this revolution was not vigorously waged and was not successfully completed. Experimental taxonomy was never an entirely experimental approach to botanical research. Even the most ardent advocates of experimentalism relied heavily on methods inherited from traditional taxonomy. Moderate exponents of experimental taxonomy stressed the compatibility of experimental methods, field observation, and herb

Notes: Abstract This paper proposes four criteria to evaluate the implementation of U.S. federal grant agency project processing procedures. The criteria - anonymity, non-perversity, implementation of program goals and adequacy - go beyond the arguments over rational-analytic versus incremental policymaking by suggesting criteria which both models can meet. Examples of two federal programs' selection procedures are used to illustrate the applicability of, and divergency from, the proposed criteria. The paper concludes with a discussion of the factors important to administrators in selecting project processing procedures.

Notes: Abstract Public policies represent tradeoffs between values. Policy analysts should see one of their main tasks as identifying the nature of such tradeoffs, both as a general phenomenon and as they vary between specific policy areas. In this article five basic values of higher education are identified: equality, excellence, autonomy, accountability and efficiency. Their occurrence in Swedish higher education is analyzed, as well as the specific tradeoffs arrived at within the framework of that policy.

Notes: Abstract Any piece of policy analysis must be appropriate to the context of its intended use. Social science often fails as policy analysis due to insensitivity to context. This paper explores a number of different modes of policy analysis to determine the circumstances in which the application of each is appropriate. It is argued that each mode is appropriate only under a fairly limited set of conditions; many of the problems policy analysis encounters are a result of attempts to apply a mode outside its niche. Greater use should be made of what is developed here as a hermeneutic model of policy analysis, appropriate in a residual set of conditions which none of the traditional models of policy analysis copes with adequately.

Notes: Abstract In an effort to improve the strategic assessment capabilities of the U.S. Department of Defense, contractors were asked to integrate advanced wargaming techniques with other analytic approaches. This paper sets out the deficiences in past and current analysis methods which the project sponsor wished to have the contractors address.

Notes: Abstract During 1975–1980, U.S. solar policy emphasized financial incentives to potential purchasers as the primary means of stimulating the introduction and spread of residential solar heating systems. This article examines the importance of nonfinancial factors in decisions to purchase residential solar heating systems during these early stages of market penetration and discusses the implications these factors have for policy design. Drawing upon research on the diffusion of innovations, on the effectiveness of income tax credits for solar heating systems, and on solar energy system purchasing decisions themselves, the argument is developed that nonfinancial factors such as system reliability, warranty protection, environmental concerns, adequate information about system costs and performance, and confidence in system suppliers and installers are at least as important as initial system cost to early purchasers. These considerations were not reflected in U.S. solar policy to the extent warranted. As a result, that policy failed to promote the balanced development of all elements essential to a viable residential solar heating industry and probably failed to alter the intentions of many prospective solar system purchasers. The reasons U.S. policymakers were relatively insensitive to nonfinancial factors are discussed and an alternative strategy for increasing the rate of market penetration of residential solar heating systems is offered.

Notes: Abstract The preceding evaluation of the policy sciences by Schneider, Stevens, and Tornatzky is based on a rather narrow conception of science that emphasizes quantitative and rigorous methods. It overlooks the limitations of such methods, as revealed by the results of applications, and certain adjustments to these limitations. The latter include the adoption of more modest but realizable aspirations and the synthesis of diverse methods-qualitative as well as quantitative, exploratory as well as confirmatory. It also overlooks differences and trends in epistemological preconceptions that underlie the conduct of research and the interpretation of research results. This article reviews the relevant literature in the hope that it might eventually contribute to more enlightened evaluations of the emerging discipline.

Notes: Abstract Beginning in the mid-1970s, fiscal limitation laws, shrinking revenue bases in older cities, and reductions in state and federal grants all have reduced the resources available to carry out the functions of local government. What do these changes portend for the amount of innovation in local government, the types of innovations that are introduced, and the processes of introduction? This paper examines these questions by reviewing the literature on factors related to innovation in public service agencies and reorienting its implications in the new fiscal environment. We conclude that on the whole the innovative process in the public sector has fallen on hard times. Yet, we identify those factors that a creative, innovative administrator can use to advantage in a period of fiscal constraints to bring about innovation. We also identify types of innovations that are likely to succeed.

Notes: Abstract With the increasing use of complex computer models for high-level policy decisionmaking, the problem of correctly interpreting and communicating model results becomes a more general concern. This paper traces misconceptions about the use of models to the existence of different conceptions of the term “model.” Policy models are quite often less theory-based than models in the traditional disciplines, especially in cases where the policy models deal with the long-term developments of sociotechnical systems. The authors examine the use of an example of one such model. Generalising from the authors' experiences in other fields of application, e.g., global modeling, the problems of interpreting model results are discussed. The proper use of future-oriented policy models is clarified by the introduction of typologies implying distinctions, e.g., between forecasting, “what-if,” and learning models, and between different “levels” of results, viz. model outcomes, model inferences and policy-issue oriented interpretations.

Notes: Abstract The introductory essay to this special issue on Governance in Crisis has three objectives. Firstly, it tries to show that current dilemmas of governance in advanced industrial Western nations can be analysed within the common framework of the thesis of the withering of the modern welfare state. Secondly, it argues that the policy sciences have a legacy of problem-oriented and value-conscious scholarship, bestowed by Lasswell and others, which can and should be taken up in the analysis of the comprehensive problems of governance confronting advanced industrial nations. Thirdly, it considers the requirement that the policy sciences go significantly beyond a managerial perspective and take up the timely but challenging task of linking up problem-orientation to contextuality. Contributions to this issue are seen to constitute a promising step in this direction.

Notes: Abstract The late 1970s saw the beginnings of a “scissors crisis” in public finance, i.e., a growing divergence between the expansion of government revenues and the increase in government expenditures. Unless strong measures are taken, the 1980s threaten to become the age of mega-deficits. The sluggish growth of public receipts and the buoyant development of public outlays are linked to a number of structural tendencies in the economies of the industrialized world. Efforts to close the gap have included both tax increases and expenditure cuts, but as more and more governments gain experience with the phenomenon of “fiscal cannibalism,” i.e., that taxes eat up each other, the main thrust of the counter-offensive has come to be directed against the growth of public spending. Current strategies to reinforce expenditures control include such elements as global norms, new indexing techniques, new methods of decentralizing hard choices, better methods of cash management, well-balanced policy packages, and incentives especially designed to stimulate cutbacks and policy termination.

Notes: Abstract In practice many descriptions of the policy process appear to be more or less related to two main features of policymaking and implementing systems. (1) A government's approach to problem solving in terms of either an anticipatory or a reactive approach. (2) A government's relationship to other actors in the policymaking and implementing process. The interaction between these two features is defined as “policy style.” In the British case, the policy style is best characterized as bureaucratic accommodation, with five overlapping features - sectorization, clientelism, consultation and negotiation, the institutionalization of compromise, and the development of exchange relationships. This policy style, which is typical of much of Western Europe, leads to the overcrowding of the policy process and makes policy change more difficult.

Notes: Abstract In the United States the Reagan Administration has proposed a number of policy initiatives which have the effect of decentralizing governmental services. The services, until recently, had increasingly become the responsibility of the federal (i.e., centralized) government. This paper inquires as to the possible effects of such decentralization tendencies. Drawing upon approaches advocated by the policy sciences and futures studies, the analysis weighs goals, trends, and conditions to propose a set of projections and policies.

Notes: Abstract From 1974 to 1980, many conservation and renewable energy policies were adopted at the state level in the United States. Some states were particularly active in enacting such policies while others were totally inactive. The variation in state policy activity is only modestly related to the states' past policy innovation traditions and conservation/renewable energy opportunities. Differences in energy vulnerability, and the relative hardship imposed by the energy crisis, have apparently had even less impact on the adoption pattern. These weak or insignificant relationships are typical of other efforts to explain state energy policy variations and are attributed to six qualitative factors: Federal preemption and inconsistency, ambivalent public opinion, conflicting values, lack of information on state energy conditions, and ignorance of the impacts of renewable energy and conservation policies. The findings identify several actions to increase sensitivity toward state energy conditions in policymaking.

Notes: Abstract The Federal Photovoltaics Utilization Program(FPUP) was established in 1978 with the belief that getting photovoltaic cells into the market was a “bootstrap problem” - one of eliminating market uncertainties through federal procurements to enable investments in improved production processes. A lack of clearly defined program objectives and expected results, however, was translated into continuing difficulties in implementation. Using the FPUP experience as an example, an alternative model of photovoltaic procurement is proposed which is simultaneously more structured (in that greater analytical control is used in selecting applications to fund) and more adaptive (in that continuous feedback is built in). A discussion of such a framework and sequential evaluation design is followed by some comments pertaining to the future of other commercialization efforts.

Notes: Abstract A contextual theoretical strategy should be pursued to overcome past deficiencies in the study of organizational innovation. The strategy is likely to lead to greater success in efforts to promote innovation. The heart of this strategy is to define the types of innovation processes at work and the contexts in which they operate. There are at least three innovation processes at work which operate in contexts defined by organizational and environmental characteristics and by the type of innovation under consideration.

Notes: Abstract Environmental mediation is a new and innovative attempt to overcome the policy stalemates that frequently hinder effective environmental policymaking. It brings together environmentalists, business groups, government officials, and a neutral mediator in an attempt to negotiate a binding settlement to a specific controversy. This essay describes this approach, discusses its advantages over more traditional dispute resolution processes, and explains how it is able to produce acceptable agreements in such a difficult policy area.

Notes: Conclusion If we arrange in chronological order the various statements Darwin made about God, creation, design, plan, law, and so forth, that I have discussed, there emerges a picture of a consistent development in Darwin's religious views from the orthodoxy of his youth to the agnosticism of his later years. Numerous sources attest that at the beginning of the Beagle voyage Darwin was more or less orthodox in religion and science alike.78 After he became a transmutationist early in 1837, he concluded that the doctrine of secondary causes must be extented even to the history of life and that after the first forms of life were created, there was no further need for divine intervention, except where man was concerned. Man's body, he thought, was produced by the process of transmutation, but he believed for a time that man's soul was “superadded.” By mid-1838 he had become convinced that nothing, after the creation of life, was due to miracles. God works only through laws, which are capable of producing “every effect of evey kind which surrounds us.” The existence of man, the idea of God in man's mind, and the harmony of the whole system were in his eyes prearranged goals of deterministic laws imposed by God. Such a conception excludes the miracles on which Christianity depends; but it is not possible to say whether Darwin's loss of Christian faith, which occurred at about this same time, preceded and made possible his “materialism” or was rather caused or hastened by it.79 In the weeks after his reading of Malthus, Darwin's belief in a plan of creation gave way to the belief that God created matter and life and designed their laws, leaving the details, however, to the workings of chance. This remained his view until the 1860s. There is no exact parallel between this development of Darwin's religious views and the development of his ideas on evolution, but there is a general correspondence. When he believed in a plan of creation, Darwin's theory of transmutation did not depend on struggle or the selection of chance variations. Adaptation was, for him, an automatic response to environmental chance. From late 1838 to 1859 he believed in designed laws and chance, and this belief, too, has its parallel in his theory. The element of chance in natural selection meant that there could be no detailed plan,in which even man's idea of God would be a necessary outcome of nature's laws (man himself is not a necessary outcome of the working of natural selection).80 But Darwin still believed nature was programmed to achieve certain general ends. We might say that he believed in a general, though not a special, teleology. Natural selection was for him a law to maximize utility, creating useful organs, retaining vestiges for future use. For many years it was a law designed to produce organisms perfectly adapted to their environments. Only later did Darwin come to doubt even this sort of design in nature.81 One way of describing the development of Darwin's evolutionary thought is to say that it shows a gradual abandoning of his “theistic” assumptions, so that by the late 1860s his theory was informed to a slighter extent by notions of purpose and design than it was in 1838 or 1844 or 1859.

Notes: Conclusion Several stages can be identified in Darwin's effort to formulate natural selection. The first stage corresponded, roughly speaking, to the period up to 1844. It was characterized by Darwin's attempt to base his model of geographic speciation on an individualistic dynamics, with species understood as reproductively isolated populations. Toward the end of this period, Darwin's ignorance of the laws of variations and heredity led him to adopt varieties and species as the units of variations. This had the extremely important effect of stimulating him to consider the process of speciation as involving populations. At the end of this period, Darwin also began to regard adaptation as being exclusively toward places in the economy of nature. Thus he faced the problem of integrating the process of natural selection with the process of speciation. Individual variants were the units that fueled the first process, whereas varieties produced new speices. There was no link between adaptation and speciation, except whatever could be supplied by a quasi-historical, developmental idea of optimizing the amount of life. In the second stage, I contend, Darwin's reading of Milne-Edwards crystallized his previous insights into a coherent whole. Milne-Edwards' comments on the advantage of functional specialization could readily be understood in terms of the advantage accruing to the individual, relative to other members of its species, from occupying a different niche. Milne-Edwards' discussion of the division of labor suggested that organisms which moved into unoccupied niches would enjoy reduced competition, and hence a differential advantage in survival and reproduction; thus they would induce the species to do likewise. Rather than base his explanation on an analogy with the artificial economy, Darwin chose the principle of the optimalization of the amount of life per unit area as the overall explanatory principle. The difficulties connected with integrating different levels of description were therefore circumvented, insofar as the problem of diversity and speciation was concerned. Although natural selection considered individuals as the units of selection, and the units of variations were varieties and species, the dynamics of the process understood in terms of natural selection, competition, division of labor and niches could give a plausible account of how individual advantage could be transferred to the species, and how diversity resulted from this mechanism. The problem of the different levels of descriptions was confined to how the properties of variations in individuals (in particular, the frequency of variations and their transmission) were responsible for the assumed variability characteristic of varieties and species. This problem Darwin never solved. A third stage occurred in 1858 with the amalgamation of the tree-of-life vizualization of the process of speciation. Speciation, geographic distribution, and systematics were all then embedded in a conceptual matrix with vast explanatory powers.